Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. We propose PRSmix, a framework that leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture for 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], [1.10; 1.3]; p = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI, [1.11; 1.27]; p = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI, [1.40; 2.04]; p = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI, [1.25; 1.59]; p = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously cross-trait-combination methods with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method improved prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI, [2.1; 4.44]; p value after false discovery rate (FDR) correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

Polygenic Scores and Preclinical Cardiovascular Disease in Individuals With HIV: Insights From the REPRIEVE Trial

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of death among the 38.4 million people with HIV globally. The extent to which cardiovascular polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived in non-HIV populations generalize to people with HIV is not well understood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

PRSs for CAD (GPSMult) and lipid traits were calculated in a global cohort of people with HIV treated with antiretroviral therapy with low-to-moderate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk enrolled in REPRIEVE (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV). The PRSs were associated with baseline lipid traits in 4495 genotyped participants, and with subclinical CAD in a subset of 662 who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography. Among participants who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (mean age, 50.9 [SD, 5.8] years; 16.1% women; 41.8% African, 57.3% European, 1.1% Asian), GPSMult was associated with plaque presence with odds ratio (OR) per SD in GPSMult of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.20-1.68; P=3.8×10-5), stenosis >50% (OR, 2.39 [95% CI, 1.48-3.85]; P=3.4×10-4), and noncalcified/vulnerable plaque (OR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.23-1.72]; P=9.6×10-6). Effects were consistent in subgroups of age, sex, 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, ancestry, and CD4 count. Adding GPSMult to established risk factors increased the C-statistic for predicting plaque presence from 0.718 to 0.734 (P=0.02). Furthermore, a PRS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with plaque presence with OR of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.44; P=0.04), and partially calcified plaque with OR of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.45; P=0.04) per SD.

CONCLUSIONS

Among people with HIV treated with antiretroviral therapy without documented atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and at low-to-moderate calculated risk in REPRIEVE, an externally developed CAD PRS was predictive of subclinical atherosclerosis. PRS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was also associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, supporting a role for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in HIV-associated CAD.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.reprievetrial.org; Unique identifier: NCT02344290.

Modification of coronary artery disease clinical risk factors by coronary artery disease polygenic risk score

BACKGROUND

The extent to which the relationships between clinical risk factors and coronary artery disease (CAD) are altered by CAD polygenic risk score (PRS) is not well understood. Here, we determine whether the interactions between clinical risk factors and CAD PRS further explain risk for incident CAD.

METHODS

Participants were of European ancestry from the UK Biobank without prevalent CAD. An externally trained genome-wide CAD PRS was generated and then applied. Clinical risk factors were ascertained at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to examine the incident CAD effects of CAD PRS, risk factors, and their interactions. Next, the PRS and risk factors were stratified to investigate the attributable risk of clinical risk factors.

FINDINGS

A total of 357,144 individuals of European ancestry without prevalent CAD were included. During a median of 11.1 years of follow-up (interquartile range 10.4-14.1 years), CAD PRS was associated with 1.35-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.332-1.368) risk per SD for incident CAD. The prognostic relevance of the following risk factors was relatively diminished for those with high CAD PRS on a continuous scale: type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]interaction 0.91, 95% CIinteraction 0.88-0.94), increased body mass index (HRinteraction 0.97, 95% CIinteraction 0.96-0.98), and increased C-reactive protein (HRinteraction 0.98, 95% CIinteraction 0.96-0.99). However, a high CAD PRS yielded joint risk increases with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HRinteraction 1.05, 95% CIinteraction 1.04-1.06) and total cholesterol (HRinteraction 1.05, 95% CIinteraction 1.03-1.06).

CONCLUSION

The CAD PRS is associated with incident CAD, and its application improves the prognostic relevance of several clinical risk factors.

FUNDING

P.N. (R01HL127564, R01HL151152, and U01HG011719) is supported by the National Institutes of Health.

Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential predicts incident cardiac arrhythmias

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related expansion of blood cells with preleukemic mutations, is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. This study aimed to test the association of CHIP with new-onset arrhythmias.

METHODS

UK Biobank participants without prevalent arrhythmias were included. Co-primary study outcomes were supraventricular arrhythmias, bradyarrhythmias, and ventricular arrhythmias. Secondary outcomes were cardiac arrest, atrial fibrillation, and any arrhythmia. Associations of any CHIP [variant allele fraction (VAF) ≥ 2%], large CHIP (VAF ≥10%), and gene-specific CHIP subtypes with incident arrhythmias were evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Associations of CHIP with myocardial interstitial fibrosis [T1 measured using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)] were also tested.

RESULTS

This study included 410 702 participants [CHIP: n = 13 892 (3.4%); large CHIP: n = 9191 (2.2%)]. Any and large CHIP were associated with multi-variable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.18; P = .001] and 1.13 (95% CI 1.05-1.22; P = .001) for supraventricular arrhythmias, 1.09 (95% CI 1.01-1.19; P = .031) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.25; P = .011) for bradyarrhythmias, and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.34; P = .049) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.03-1.45; P = .021) for ventricular arrhythmias, respectively. Associations were independent of coronary artery disease and heart failure. Associations were also heterogeneous across arrhythmia subtypes and strongest for cardiac arrest. Gene-specific analyses revealed an increased risk of arrhythmias across driver genes other than DNMT3A. Large CHIP was associated with 1.31-fold odds (95% CI 1.07-1.59; P = .009) of being in the top quintile of myocardial fibrosis by CMR.

CONCLUSIONS

CHIP may represent a novel risk factor for incident arrhythmias, indicating a potential target for modulation towards arrhythmia prevention and treatment.

Genetic Associations of Circulating Cardiovascular Proteins With Gestational Hypertension and Preeclampsia

Importance

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs), including gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, are important contributors to maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. In addition, women with HDPs face an elevated long-term risk of cardiovascular disease.

Objective

To identify proteins in the circulation associated with HDPs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) tested the associations of genetic instruments for cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. In downstream analyses, a systematic review of observational data was conducted to evaluate the identified proteins' dynamics across gestation in hypertensive vs normotensive pregnancies, and phenome-wide MR analyses were performed to identify potential non-HDP-related effects associated with the prioritized proteins. Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from the Systematic and Combined Analysis of Olink Proteins (SCALLOP) consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from recent European-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analyses for gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. Study data were analyzed October 2022 to October 2023.

Exposures

Genetic instruments for 90 candidate proteins implicated in cardiovascular diseases, constructed using cis-protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTLs).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Gestational hypertension and preeclampsia.

Results

Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from 21 758 participants from the SCALLOP consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from 393 238 female individuals (8636 cases and 384 602 controls) for gestational hypertension and 606 903 female individuals (16 032 cases and 590 871 controls) for preeclampsia. Seventy-five of 90 proteins (83.3%) had at least 1 valid cis-pQTL. Of those, 10 proteins (13.3%) were significantly associated with HDPs. Four were robust to sensitivity analyses for gestational hypertension (cluster of differentiation 40, eosinophil cationic protein [ECP], galectin 3, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]), and 2 were robust for preeclampsia (cystatin B, heat shock protein 27 [HSP27]). Consistent with the MR findings, observational data revealed that lower NT-proBNP (0.76- to 0.88-fold difference vs no HDPs) and higher HSP27 (2.40-fold difference vs no HDPs) levels during the first trimester of pregnancy were associated with increased risk of HDPs, as were higher levels of ECP (1.60-fold difference vs no HDPs). Phenome-wide MR analyses identified 37 unique non-HDP-related protein-disease associations, suggesting potential on-target effects associated with interventions lowering HDP risk through the identified proteins.

Conclusions and Relevance

Study findings suggest genetic associations of 4 cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and 2 associated with preeclampsia. Future studies are required to test the efficacy of targeting the corresponding pathways to reduce HDP risk.

Risk factors for clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential in people with HIV: a report from the REPRIEVE trial

ABSTRACT

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the clonal expansion of myeloid cells with leukemogenic mutations, results in increased coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. CHIP is more prevalent among people with HIV (PWH), but the risk factors are unknown. CHIP was identified among PWH in REPRIEVE (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV) using whole-exome sequencing. Logistic regression was used to associate sociodemographic factors and HIV-specific factors with CHIP adjusting for age, sex, and smoking status. In the studied global cohort of 4486 PWH, mean age was 49.9 (standard deviation [SD], 6.4) years; 1650 (36.8%) were female; and 3418 (76.2%) were non-White. CHIP was identified in 223 of 4486 (4.97%) and in 38 of 373 (10.2%) among those aged ≥60 years. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.09; P < .0001) and smoking (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.14-1.66; P < .001) associated with increased odds of CHIP. Globally, participants outside of North America had lower odds of CHIP including sub-Saharan Africa (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.4-0.81; P = .0019), South Asia (OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23-0.80; P = .01), and Latin America/Caribbean (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.34-0.87; P = .014). Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.23-0.54; P = .002) associated with significantly lower odds of CHIP. Among HIV-specific factors, CD4 nadir <50 cells/mm3 associated with a 1.9-fold (95%CI, 1.21-3.05; P = .006) increased odds of CHIP, with the effect being significantly stronger among individuals with short duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART; OR, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.51-11.1; P = .005) (Pinteraction= .0492). Among PWH at low-to-moderate CAD risk on stable ART, smoking, CD4 nadir, North American origin, and non-Hispanic ethnicity associated with increased odds of CHIP. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02344290.

Cumulative Diastolic Blood Pressure Burden in Normal Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

The clinical significance of isolated diastolic hypertension defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure (BP) guidelines remains inconsistent. We examined whether long-term diastolic burden predicts the first major adverse cardiovascular event in participants with sustained and untreated normal systolic BP.

METHODS

The Mass General Brigham Biobank is a New England health care-based cohort recruited between 2010 and 2021. A total of 15 979 participants aged 18 to 64 years and without prior cardiovascular disease, antihypertensives, or high systolic BP were studied. The cumulative diastolic burden was determined as the area under the curve for diastolic BP (DBP) ≥80 mm Hg over 5 years before enrollment. Major adverse cardiovascular event was defined as a composite of first incident ischemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, or all-cause death.

RESULTS

Of the 15 979 participants, mean (SD) age at enrollment was 47.6 (14.3) years, 11 950 (74.8%) were women, and the mean (SD) systolic BP and DBP were 118.0 (12.9) and 72.2 (9.3) mm Hg, respectively. Over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.5 (1.8-5.4) years, 2467 (15.4%) major adverse cardiovascular events occurred. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, each SD increase in cumulative DBP was independently associated with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.06 (1.02-1.10) without effect modification by sex (P=0.65), age (P=0.46), or race/ethnicity (P=0.24). In addition to traditional risk factors, cumulative DBP modestly improved the discrimination C index (95% CI) from 0.74 (0.72-0.75) to 0.75 (0.74-0.76; likelihood ratio test, P=0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with normal systolic BP, cumulative DBP may augment cardiovascular disease risk stratification beyond a single DBP measure and traditional risk factors.

Integrative proteomic analyses across common cardiac diseases yield new mechanistic insights and enhanced prediction

Cardiac diseases represent common highly morbid conditions for which underlying molecular mechanisms remain incompletely understood. Here, we leveraged 1,459 protein measurements in 44,313 UK Biobank participants to characterize the circulating proteome associated with incident coronary artery disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression identified 820 protein-disease associations-including 441 proteins-at Bonferroni-adjusted P <8.6×10 -6 . Cis -Mendelian randomization suggested causal roles that aligned with epidemiological findings for 6% of proteins identified in primary analyses, prioritizing novel therapeutic targets for different cardiac diseases (e.g., interleukin-4 receptor for heart failure and spondin-1 for atrial fibrillation). Interaction analyses identified seven protein-disease associations that differed Bonferroni-significantly by sex. Models incorporating proteomic data (vs. clinical risk factors alone) improved prediction for coronary artery disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. These results lay a foundation for future investigations to uncover novel disease mechanisms and assess the clinical utility of protein-based prevention strategies for cardiac diseases.

Dynamic Importance of Genomic and Clinical Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Over the Life Course

Importance

Earlier identification of high coronary artery disease (CAD) risk individuals may enable more effective prevention strategies. However, existing 10-year risk frameworks are ineffective at earlier identification. Understanding the variable importance of genomic and clinical factors across life stages may significantly improve lifelong CAD event prediction.

Objective

To assess the time-varying significance of genomic and clinical risk factors in CAD risk estimation across various age groups.

Design Setting and Participants

A longitudinal study was performed using data from two cohort studies: the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS) with 3,588 participants aged 19-57 years and the UK Biobank (UKB) with 327,837 participants aged 40-70 years. A total of 134,765 and 3,831,734 person-time years were observed in FOS and UKB, respectively.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HR) for CAD were calculated for polygenic risk scores (PRS) and clinical risk factors at each age of enrollment. The relative importance of PRS and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in predicting CAD events was also evaluated by age groups.

Results

The importance of CAD PRS diminished over the life course, with an HR of 3.58 (95% CI 1.39-9.19) at age 19 in FOS and an HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.48-1.54) by age 70 in UKB. Clinical risk factors exhibited similar age-dependent trends. PRS significantly outperformed PCE in identifying subsequent CAD events in the 40-45-year age group, with 3.2-fold more appropriately identified events. The mean age of CAD events occurred 1.8 years earlier for those at high genomic risk but 9.6 years later for those at high clinical risk (p<0.001). Overall, adding PRS improved the area under the receiving operating curve of the PCE by an average of +5.1% (95% CI 4.9-5.2%) across all age groups; among individuals <55 years, PRS augmented the AUC-ROC of the PCE by 6.5% (95% CI 5.5-7.5%, p<0.001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Genomic and clinical risk factors for CAD display time-varying importance across the lifespan. The study underscores the added value of CAD PRS, particularly among individuals younger than 55 years, for enhancing early risk prediction and prevention strategies.

Bayesian multivariate genetic analysis improves translational insights

While lipid traits are known essential mediators of cardiovascular disease, few approaches have taken advantage of their shared genetic effects. We apply a Bayesian multivariate size estimator, mash, to GWAS of four lipid traits in the Million Veterans Program (MVP) and provide posterior mean and local false sign rates for all effects. These estimates borrow information across traits to improve effect size accuracy. We show that controlling local false sign rates accurately and powerfully identifies replicable genetic associations and that multivariate control furthers the ability to explain complex diseases. Our application yields high concordance between independent datasets, more accurately prioritizes causal genes, and significantly improves polygenic prediction beyond state-of-the-art methods by up to 59% for lipid traits. The use of Bayesian multivariate genetic shrinkage has yet to be applied to human quantitative trait GWAS results, and we present a staged approach to prediction on a polygenic scale.

Long-term longitudinal analysis of 4,187 participants reveals new insights into determinants of incident clonal hematopoiesis

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH), characterized by blood cells predominantly originating from a single mutated hematopoietic stem cell, is linked to diverse aging-related diseases, including hematologic malignancy and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). While CH is common among older adults, the underlying factors driving its development are largely unknown. To address this, we performed whole-exome sequencing on 8,374 blood DNA samples collected from 4,187 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) participants over a median follow-up of 21 years. During this period, 735 participants developed incident CH. We found that age at baseline, sex, and dyslipidemia significantly influence the incidence of CH, while ASCVD and other traditional risk factors for ASCVD did not exhibit such associations. Our study also revealed associations between germline genetic variants and incident CH, prioritizing genes in CH development. Our comprehensive longitudinal assessment yields novel insights into the factors contributing to incident CH in older adults.

Representation of Race and Ethnicity in the Contemporary US Health Cohort All of Us Research Program

Importance

To address systemic disparities in biomedical research, the All of Us (AoU) Research Program was created to identify the root causes and consequences of health outcomes in the US. However, the extent of AoU's racial and ethnic diversity is unknown.

Objective

To quantify representation of key racial and ethnic groups in the accruing AoU nationwide health cohort and compare with their actual representation in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study compared the AoU program from May 2017 to June 2022 for individuals 18 years and older with the Decennial Survey 2020 (DEC) collected by the US Census Bureau.

Exposures

Representation of non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, non-Hispanic White, and uncategorized or multiple races in AoU.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The extent of underrepresentation or overrepresentation of each racial group in the AoU program at both nationwide and state-level relative to DEC.

Results

Of the 358 705 US adults in the AoU to date, individuals identified with the following race and ethnicity categories: 12 710 non-Hispanic Asian (3.5%), 73 348 non-Hispanic Black or African American (20.5%), 58 488 Hispanic or Latino (16.3%), 205 457 non-Hispanic White (57.3%), and 8702 uncategorized or reporting multiple categories (2.4%). Of 355 413 participants with available sex at birth and age data, 218 981 (61.6%) were female and had a mean (SD) age of 53.1 (17.0) years, 136 037 (38.28%) were male and had a mean (SD) age of 56.7 (17.0) years, and 395 reported nonbinary sex (0.1%), with a mean (SD) age of 55.4 (15.8) years. Compared with the referent US, non-Hispanic Black or African American individuals were overrepresented in the AoU by 8.73% (AoU, 20.5% [73 348 of 358 705] vs DEC, 11.7% [30 266 080 of 258 343 281]) and by relative scale, 1.94-fold. Non-Hispanic White individuals accounted for the greatest participation in the AoU with generally consistent dominance across all regions yet numerically underrepresented by absolute difference of -3.54% (95% CI, -3.70 to -3.38). Uncategorized or multiracial group in the AoU (2.4% [8702 of 358 705]) was 0.43-fold likely to be represented relative to the DEC (4.6% [11 922 096 of 258 343 281]) with an absolute difference of -2.19% (95% CI, -2.24 to -2.14). Moreover, non-Hispanic Asian individuals were underrepresented by -2.54% (95% CI, -2.60 to -2.48) prominently in most states. Individuals identifying as Hispanic or Latino were nominally underrepresented by -0.46% (95% CI, -0.58 to -0.34) (AoU, 16.3% [58 488 of 358 705] vs DEC, 16.8% [43 322 792 of 258 343 281]).

Conclusions and Relevance

Recruitment trends for the ongoing AoU show relatively improved representation of some major race groups with geographic trends. These findings underscore the need to further tailor and augment recruitment and participation initiatives for diverse populations.

Age at Menopause, Leukocyte Telomere Length, and Coronary Artery Disease in Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND

Premature menopause is a risk factor for accelerated cardiovascular aging, but underlying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. This study investigated the role of leukocyte telomere length (LTL), a marker of cellular aging and genomic instability, in the association of premature menopause with cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

Participants from the UK Biobank and Women's Health Initiative with complete reproductive history and LTL measurements were included. Primary analyses tested the association between age at menopause and LTL using multivariable-adjusted linear regression. Secondary analyses stratified women by history of gynecologic surgery. Mendelian randomization was used to infer causal relationships between LTL and age at natural menopause. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression and mediation analyses tested the joint associations of premature menopause and LTL with incident coronary artery disease.

RESULTS

This study included 130 254 postmenopausal women (UK Biobank: n=122 224; Women's Health Initiative: n=8030), of whom 4809 (3.7%) had experienced menopause before age 40. Earlier menopause was associated with shorter LTL (meta-analyzed ß=-0.02 SD/5 years of earlier menopause [95% CI, -0.02 to -0.01]; P=7.2×10-12). This association was stronger and significant in both cohorts for women with natural/spontaneous menopause (meta-analyzed ß=-0.04 SD/5 years of earlier menopause [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.03]; P<2.2×10-16) and was independent of hormone therapy use. Mendelian randomization supported a causal association of shorter genetically predicted LTL with earlier age at natural menopause. LTL and age at menopause were independently associated with incident coronary artery disease, and mediation analyses indicated small but significant mediation effects of LTL in the association of menopausal age with coronary artery disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier age at menopause is associated with shorter LTL, especially among women with natural menopause. Accelerated telomere shortening may contribute to the heightened cardiovascular risk associated with premature menopause.

Multi-ancestry meta-analysis identifies 5 novel loci for ischemic stroke and reveals heterogeneity of effects between sexes and ancestries

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Stroke prevalence varies by sex and ancestry, possibly due to genetic heterogeneity between subgroups. We performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of 16 biobanks across multiple ancestries to study the genetics of ischemic stroke (60,176 cases, 1,310,725 controls) as part of the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI) and further combined the results with previously published MegaStroke. Five novel loci for ischemic stroke (LAMC1, CALCRL, PLSCR1, CDKN1A, and SWAP70) were identified after replication in four additional datasets. One previously reported locus showed significant ancestry heterogeneity (ABO), and one showed significant sex heterogeneity (ALDH2). The ALDH2 association was male specific (males p = 1.67e-24, females p = 0.126) and was additionally observed only in the East Asian ancestry (male) samples. These findings emphasize the need for more diverse datasets with large sample sizes to further understand the genetic predisposition of stroke in different ancestry and sex groups.

Integrative metabolomics differentiate coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, and venous thromboembolism risks

Rationale

Arterial and venous cardiovascular conditions, such as coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD), and venous thromboembolism (VTE), are genetically correlated. Interrogating distinct and overlapping mechanisms may shed new light on disease mechanisms.

Objective

In this study, we aimed to: identify and compare (1) epidemiologic and (2) causal, genetic relationships between metabolites and CAD, PAD, and VTE.

Methods

We used metabolomic data from 95,402 individuals in the UK Biobank, excluding individuals with prevalent cardiovascular disease. Logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, genotyping array, first five principal components of ancestry, and statin use estimated the epidemiologic associations of 249 metabolites with incident CAD, PAD, or VTE. Bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) estimated the causal effects between metabolites and cardiovascular phenotypes using genome-wide association summary statistics for metabolites (N = 118,466 from UK Biobank), CAD (N = 184,305 from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D 2015), PAD (N = 243,060 from Million Veterans Project) and VTE (N = 650,119 from Million Veterans Project). Multivariable MR (MVMR) was performed in subsequent analyses.

Results

We found that 194, 111, and 69 metabolites were epidemiologically associated (P < 0.001) with CAD, PAD, and VTE, respectively. Metabolomic profiles exhibited variable similarity between disease pairs: CAD and PAD (N = 100 shared associations, R2 = 0.499), CAD and VTE (N = 68, R2 = 0.455), and PAD and VTE (N = 54, R2 = 0.752). MR revealed 28 metabolites that increased risk for both CAD and PAD and 2 metabolites that increased risk for CAD but decreased risk for VTE. Despite strong epidemiologic overlap, no metabolites had a shared genetic relationship between PAD and VTE. MVMR revealed several metabolites with shared causal effects on CAD and PAD related to cholesterol content within very-low-density lipoprotein particles.

Conclusions

While common arterial and venous conditions are associated with overlapping metabolomic profiles, MR prioritized the role of remnant cholesterol in arterial diseases but not venous thrombosis.

Birth Weight Is Associated With Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adulthood

Background High and low birth weight are independently associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk in adulthood. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related clonal expansion of hematopoietic cells with preleukemic somatic mutations, predicts incident cardiovascular disease independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Whether birth weight predicts development of CHIP later in life is unknown. Methods and Results A total of 221 047 adults enrolled in the UK Biobank with whole exome sequences and self-reported birth weight were analyzed. Of those, 22 030 (11.5%) had low (<2.5 kg) and 29 292 (14.7%) high birth weight (>4.0 kg). CHIP prevalence was higher among participants with low (6.0%, P=0.049) and high (6.3%, P<0.001) versus normal birth weight (5.7%, ref.). Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses demonstrated that each 1-kg increase in birth weight was associated with a 3% increased risk of CHIP (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.00-1.06]; P=0.04), driven by a stronger association observed between birth weight and DNMT3A CHIP (odds ratio, 1.04 per 1-kg increase [95% CI, 1.01-1.08]; P=0.02). Mendelian randomization analyses supported a causal relationship of longer gestational age at delivery with DNMT3A CHIP. Multivariable Cox regression demonstrated that CHIP was independently and additively associated with incident cardiovascular disease or death across birth weight groups, with highest absolute risks in those with CHIP plus high or low birth weight. Conclusions Higher birth weight is associated with increased risk of developing CHIP in midlife, especially DNMT3A CHIP. These findings identify a novel risk factor for CHIP and provide insights into the relationships among early-life environment, CHIP, cancer, and cardiovascular disease.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP)-the age-related clonal expansion of blood stem cells with leukemia-associated mutations-is a novel cardiovascular risk factor. Whether CHIP remains prognostic in individuals with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is less clear.

OBJECTIVES

This study tested whether CHIP predicts adverse outcomes in individuals with established ASCVD.

METHODS

Individuals aged 40 to 70 years from the UK Biobank with established ASCVD and available whole-exome sequences were analyzed. The primary outcome was a composite of ASCVD events and all-cause mortality. Associations of any CHIP (variant allele fraction ≥2%), large CHIP clones (variant allele fraction ≥10%), and the most commonly mutated driver genes (DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, PPM1D/TP53 [DNA damage repair genes], and SF3B1/SRSF2/U2AF1 [spliceosome genes]) with incident outcomes were compared using unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of 13,129 individuals (median age: 63 years) included, 665 (5.1%) had CHIP. Over a median follow-up of 10.8 years, any CHIP and large CHIP at baseline were associated with adjusted HRs of 1.23 (95% CI: 1.10-1.38; P < 0.001) and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.17-1.53; P < 0.001), respectively, for the primary outcome. TET2 and spliceosome CHIP, especially large clones, were most strongly associated with adverse outcomes (large TET2 CHIP: HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.40-2.55; P <0.001; large spliceosome CHIP: HR: 3.02; 95% CI: 1.95-4.70; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CHIP is independently associated with adverse outcomes in individuals with established ASCVD, with especially high risks observed in TET2 and SF3B1/SRSF2/U2AF1 CHIP.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. Validation and transferability of existing PRS across independent datasets and diverse ancestries are limited, which hinders the practical utility and exacerbates health disparities. We propose PRSmix, a framework that evaluates and leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture. We applied PRSmix to 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% CI: [1.10; 1.3]; P-value = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI: [1.11; 1.27]; P-value = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI: [1.40; 2.04]; P-value = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI: [1.25; 1.59]; P-value = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously established cross-trait-combination method with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method can improve prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI: [2.1; 4.44]; P-value after FDR correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection is infrequent in individuals with heritable thoracic aortic disease despite partially shared genetic susceptibility

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is a potential precipitant of myocardial infarction and sudden death for which the etiology is poorly understood. Mendelian vascular and connective tissue disorders underlying thoracic aortic disease (TAD), have been reported in ~5% of individuals with SCAD. We therefore hypothesized that patients with TAD are at elevated risk for SCAD. We queried registries enrolling patients with TAD to define the incidence of SCAD. Of 7568 individuals enrolled, 11 (0.15%) were found to have SCAD. Of the sequenced cases (9/11), pathogenic variants were identified (N = 9), including COL3A1 (N = 3), FBN1 (N = 2), TGFBR2 (N = 2), TGFBR1 (N = 1), and PRKG1 (N = 1). Individuals with SCAD had an increased frequency of iliac artery dissection (25.0% vs. 5.1%, p = 0.047). The prevalence of SCAD among individuals with TAD is low. The identification of pathogenic variants in genes previously described in individuals with SCAD, particularly those underlying vascular Ehlers-Danlos, Marfan syndrome, and Loeys-Dietz syndrome, is consistent with prior reports from clinical SCAD series. Further research is needed to identify specific genetic influences on SCAD risk.

A survey of aortic disease biorepository participants' preferences for return of research genetic results

There is ongoing debate on whether and what research genetic results to return to study participants. To date, no study in this area has focused on aortopathy populations despite known genes that are clinically actionable. Participants (n = 225, 79% male, mean age = 61 years) with an aortopathy were surveyed to assess preferences for receiving research genetic results. Participants were 'very' or 'extremely likely' to want results for pathogenic variants in aortopathy genes with implications for family members (81%) or that would change medical management (76%). Similarly, participants were 'very' or 'extremely likely' to want actionable secondary findings related to cancer (75%) or other cardiac diseases (70%). Significantly lower interest was observed for non-actionable findings-pathogenic variants in aortopathy genes that would not change medical management (51%) and variants of uncertain significance (38%) (p < .0001). Higher health and genomic literacy were positively associated with interest in actionable findings. Most participants (>63%) were accepting of any means of return; however, a substantial minority (18%-38%) deemed certain technological means unacceptable (e.g., patient portal). Over 90% of participants reported that a range of health professionals, including cardiovascular specialists, genetics specialists, and primary care providers, were acceptable to return results. Participants with aortopathies are highly interested in research genetic results perceived to be medically actionable for themselves or family members. Participants are accepting of a variety of means for returning results. Findings suggest that research participants should be asked what results are preferred at time of informed consent and that genetic counseling may clarify implications of results that are not personally medically actionable.

Genome-wide analysis yields new loci associating with aortic valve stenosis

Aortic valve stenosis (AS) is the most common valvular heart disease, and valve replacement is the only definitive treatment. Here we report a large genome-wide association (GWA) study of 2,457 Icelandic AS cases and 349,342 controls with a follow-up in up to 4,850 cases and 451,731 controls of European ancestry. We identify two new AS loci, on chromosome 1p21 near PALMD (rs7543130; odds ratio (OR) = 1.20, P = 1.2 × 10⁻²²) and on chromosome 2q22 in TEX41 (rs1830321; OR = 1.15, P = 1.8 × 10⁻¹³). Rs7543130 also associates with bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) (OR = 1.28, P = 6.6 × 10⁻¹⁰) and aortic root diameter (P = 1.30 × 10⁻⁸), and rs1830321 associates with BAV (OR = 1.12, P = 5.3 × 10⁻³) and coronary artery disease (OR = 1.05, P = 9.3 × 10⁻⁵). The results implicate both cardiac developmental abnormalities and atherosclerosis-like processes in the pathogenesis of AS. We show that several pathways are shared by CAD and AS. Causal analysis suggests that the shared risk factors of Lp(a) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol contribute substantially to the frequent co-occurence of these diseases.

Aortic valve stenosis (AS) is the most common valvular heart disease. Here the authors identify two new AS loci that also associate with bicuspid aortic valve, aortic root diameter and/or coronary artery disease implicating both developmental abnormalities and atherosclerosis-like processes in AS.

Protein-altering and regulatory genetic variants near GATA4 implicated in bicuspid aortic valve

Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) is a heritable congenital heart defect and an important risk factor for valvulopathy and aortopathy. Here we report a genome-wide association scan of 466 BAV cases and 4,660 age, sex and ethnicity-matched controls with replication in up to 1,326 cases and 8,103 controls. We identify association with a noncoding variant 151 kb from the gene encoding the cardiac-specific transcription factor, GATA4, and near-significance for p.Ser377Gly in GATA4. GATA4 was interrupted by CRISPR-Cas9 in induced pluripotent stem cells from healthy donors. The disruption of GATA4 significantly impaired the transition from endothelial cells into mesenchymal cells, a critical step in heart valve development.

Effect of Moderate-Intensity Exercise Training on Peak Oxygen Consumption in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Formulating exercise recommendations for patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is challenging because of concern about triggering ventricular arrhythmias and because a clinical benefit has not been previously established in this population.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether moderate-intensity exercise training improves exercise capacity in adults with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A randomized clinical trial involving 136 patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was conducted between April 2010 and October 2015 at 2 academic medical centers in the United States (University of Michigan Health System and Stanford University Medical Center). Date of last follow-up was November 2016.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomly assigned to 16 weeks of moderate-intensity exercise training (n = 67) or usual activity (n = 69).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was change in peak oxygen consumption from baseline to 16 weeks.

RESULTS

Among the 136 randomized participants (mean age, 50.4 [SD, 13.3] years; 42% women), 113 (83%) completed the study. At 16 weeks, the change in mean peak oxygen consumption was +1.35 (95% CI, 0.50 to 2.21) mL/kg/min among participants in the exercise training group and +0.08 (95% CI, -0.62 to 0.79) mL/kg/min among participants in the usual-activity group (between-group difference, 1.27 [95% CI, 0.17 to 2.37]; P = .02). There were no occurrences of sustained ventricular arrhythmia, sudden cardiac arrest, appropriate defibrillator shock, or death in either group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this preliminary study involving patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, moderate-intensity exercise compared with usual activity resulted in a statistically significant but small increase in exercise capacity at 16 weeks. Further research is needed to understand the clinical importance of this finding in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, as well as the long-term safety of exercise at moderate and higher levels of intensity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01127061.