The response of two butterfly species to climatic variation at the edge of their range and the implications for poleward range shifts

Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis)

The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter "endo-exogenous") models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.

Plant defense under Arctic light conditions: Can plants withstand invading pests?

Global warming is predicted to change the growth conditions for plants and crops in regions at high latitudes (>60° N), including the Arctic. This will be accompanied by alterations in the composition of natural plant and pest communities, as herbivorous arthropods will invade these regions as well. Interactions between previously non-overlapping species may occur and cause new challenges to herbivore attack. However, plants growing at high latitudes experience less herbivory compared to plants grown at lower latitudes. We hypothesize that this finding is due to a gradient of constitutive chemical defense towards the Northern regions. We further hypothesize that higher level of defensive compounds is mediated by higher level of the defense-related phytohormone jasmonate. Because its biosynthesis is light dependent, Arctic summer day light conditions can promote jasmonate accumulation and, hence, downstream physiological responses. A pilot study with bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) plants grown under different light regimes supports the hypothesis.

Latitudinal gradient in species diversity provides high niche opportunities for a range-expanding phytophagous insect

When species undergo poleward range expansions in response to anthropogenic change, they likely encounter less diverse communities in new locations. If low diversity communities provide weak biotic interactions, such as reduced competition or predation, range-expanding species may experience high niche opportunities. Here, we investigated if oak gall wasp communities follow a latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) and if lower diversity communities provide weaker interactions at the poles for a range-expanding community member, Neuroterus saltatorius. We performed systematic surveys of gall wasps on a dominant oak, Quercus garryana, throughout most of its range, from northern California to Vancouver Island, British Columbia. On 540 trees at 18 sites, we identified 23 oak gall wasp morphotypes in three guilds (leaf detachable, leaf integral, and stem galls). We performed regressions between oak gall wasp diversity, latitude, and other abiotic (e.g. temperature) and habitat (e.g. oak patch size) factors to reveal if gall wasp communities followed an LDG. To uncover patterns in local interactions, we first performed partial correlations of gall wasp morphotype occurrences on trees within regions). We then performed regressions between abundances of co-occurring gall wasps on trees to reveal if interactions are putatively competitive or antagonistic. Q. garryana-gall wasp communities followed an LDG, with lower diversity at higher latitudes, particularly with a loss of detachable leaf gall morphotypes. Detachable leaf gall wasps, including the range-expanding species, co-occurred most on trees, with weak co-occurrences on trees in the northern expanded region. Abundances of N. saltatorius and detachable and integral leaf galls co-occurring on trees were negatively related, suggesting antagonistic interactions. Overall, we found that LDGs create communities with weaker associations at the poles that might facilitate ecological release in a range-expanding community member. Given the ubiquity of LDGs in nature, poleward range-expanding species are likely moving into low diversity communities. Yet, understanding if latitudinal diversity pattern provides weak biotic interactions for range-expanding species is not well explored. Our large-scale study documenting diversity in a related community of phytophagous insects that co-occur on a host plant reveals that LDGs create high niche opportunities for a range-expanding community member. Biogeographical patterns in diversity and species interactions are likely important mechanisms contributing to altered biotic interactions under range-expansions.

Linking ecological niche models and common garden experiments to predict phenotypic differentiation in stressful environments: Assessing the adaptive value of marginal populations in an alpine plant

Environmental variation within a species' range can create contrasting selective pressures, leading to divergent selection and novel adaptations. The conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas remains in debate and is closely related to the adaptive potential in changing environments. Strong selection caused by stressful conditions may generate novel adaptations, conferring these populations distinct evolutionary potential and high conservation value under climate change. On the other hand, environmentally marginal populations may be genetically depauperate, with little potential for new adaptations to emerge. Here, we explored the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) linked with common garden experiments to predict and test for genetically determined phenotypic differentiation related to contrasting environmental conditions. To do so, we built an ENM for the alpine plant Silene ciliata in central Spain and conducted common garden experiments, assessing flowering phenology changes and differences in leaf cell resistance to extreme temperatures. The suitability patterns and response curves of the ENM led to the predictions that: (1) the environmentally marginal populations experiencing less snowpack and higher minimum temperatures would have delayed flowering to avoid risks of late-spring frosts and (2) those with higher minimum temperatures and greater potential evapotranspiration would show enhanced cell resistance to high temperatures to deal with physiological stress related to desiccation and heat. The common garden experiments revealed the expected genetically based phenotypic differentiation in flowering phenology. In contrast, they did not show the expected differentiation for cell resistance, but these latter experiments had high variance and hence lower statistical power. The results highlight ENMs as useful tools to identify contrasting putative selective pressures across species ranges. Linking ENMs with common garden experiments provides a theoretically justified and practical way to study adaptive processes, including insights regarding the conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas under ongoing climate change.

Climate change effects on animal ecology: butterflies and moths as a case study

Butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera) are one of the most studied, diverse, and widespread animal groups, making them an ideal model for climate change research. They are a particularly informative model for studying the effects of climate change on species ecology because they are ectotherms that thermoregulate with a suite of physiological, behavioural, and phenotypic traits. While some species have been negatively impacted by climatic disturbances, others have prospered, largely in accordance with their diversity in life-history traits. Here we take advantage of a large repertoire of studies on butterflies and moths to provide a review of the many ways in which climate change is impacting insects, animals, and ecosystems. By studying these climate-based impacts on ecological processes of Lepidoptera, we propose appropriate strategies for species conservation and habitat management broadly across animals.

Phylogeographic Investigation of an Endangered Longhorn Beetle, Callipogon relictus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), in Northeast Asia: Implications for Future Restoration in Korea

The longhorn beetle, Callipogon (Eoxenus) relictus Semenov, is the only remnant species found in the Palearctic region, while all other Callipogon species are distributed mainly in Central America and partly in South America. This species has been placed in the first category (as 'critically endangered') of the Red Data Book in Russia and designated as one of the top-priority target species among all endangered invertebrate species for restoration in South Korea since 2006. Although its restricted distribution in Northeast Asia with a high conservational value has been highlighted, genetic features of C. relictus from different geographic regions remain unexplored. We first investigated the level of genetic diversity and phylogeographic patterns of C. relictus to evaluate the current conservational status and the feasibility of the implementation of a restoration program. The average genetic divergence of mitochondrial gene COI based on Kimura-2-parameter distance among the four regions in Russia, China, North Korea, and South Korea was 2.2%, which lies within the range of intraspecific levels. However, two separate clades with 3.8% divergence were identified, despite no geographical clustering of haplotypes. The linear pattern of the haplotype network with a high level of haplotype and nucleotide diversities suggests that the wide range of currently fragmented populations might be the remnant of genetically diverse populations in the past. This study will provide crucial information on the genetic characteristics and phylogeographic history of C. relictus, which will help to establish conservation strategies for this cherished insect species in Northeast Asia.

Predicting greater sage-grouse habitat selection at the southern periphery of their range

Mapping suitable habitat is an important process in wildlife conservation planning. Species distribution reflects habitat selection processes occurring across multiple spatio-temporal scales. Because habitat selection may be driven by different factors at different scales, conservation planners require information at the scale of the intervention to plan effective management actions. Previous research has described habitat selection processes shaping the distribution of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) at the range-wide scale. Finer-scale information for applications within jurisdictional units inside the species range is lacking, yet necessary, because state wildlife agencies are the management authority for sage-grouse in the United States. We quantified seasonal second-order habitat selection for sage-grouse across the state of Utah to produce spatio-temporal predictions of their distribution at the southern periphery of the species range. We used location data obtained from sage-grouse marked with very-high-frequency radio-transmitters and lek location data collected between 1998 and 2013 to quantify species habitat selection in relation to a suite of topographic, edaphic, climatic, and anthropogenic variables using random forest algorithms. Sage-grouse selected for greater sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) cover, higher elevations, and gentler slopes and avoided lower precipitations and higher temperatures. The strength of responses to habitat variables varied across seasons. Anthropogenic variables previously reported as affecting their range-wide distribution (i.e., roads, powerlines, communication towers, and agricultural development) were not ranked as top predictors at our focal scale. Other than strong selection for sagebrush cover, the responses we observed differed from what has been reported at the range-wide scale. These differences likely reflect the unique climatic, geographic, and topographic context found in the southern peripheral area of the species distribution compared to range-wide environmental gradients. Our results highlight the importance of considering appropriateness of scale when planning conservation actions for wide-ranging species.

Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies

Although the responses of living organisms to climate change are being widely investigated, little attention has been given to such effects late in the growing season. We studied the late-season flight times of 20 species of butterflies in a geographically limited region, the state of Massachusetts in the USA, by examining change in dates of flight over a 22-year period and in response to average monthly temperature and precipitation. By analyzing the last 10% of each year's observations reported by observers of the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we found that seven species remain in flight significantly later into the fall than they did two decades earlier, while two species show reduced late-season flight. Life history characteristics of the species, particularly voltinism and average fall flight dates, influenced whether warmer fall months led to increases or decreases in fall flight. Warmer Novembers often led to later fall flight, and wetter Augusts usually extended fall flight. These results document the effects of climate on late-season flight times of butterflies, add to an understanding of how warmer autumn conditions alter the phenology of different butterfly species, and show the usefulness of citizen science data.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change.

Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study.

The Effect of Temperature Increases on an Ant-Hemiptera-Plant Interaction

Global temperature increases are significantly altering species distributions and the structure of ecological communities. However, the impact of temperature increases on multi- species interactions is poorly understood. We used an ant-Hemiptera-plant interaction to examine the potential outcomes of predicted temperature increases for each partner and for the availability of honeydew, a keystone resource in many forest ecosystems. We re-created this interaction in growth cabinets using predicted mean summer temperatures for Melbourne, Australia, for the years 2011 (23°C), 2050 (25°C) and 2100 (29°C), respectively, under an unmitigated greenhouse gas emission scenario. Plant growth and ant foraging activities increased, while scale insect growth, abundance and size, honeydew standing crop per tree and harvesting by ants decreased at 29°C, relative to lower temperatures (23 and 25°C). This led to decreased scale insect infestations of plants and reduced honeydew standing crop per tree at the highest temperature. At all temperatures, honeydew standing crop was lower when ants harvested the honeydew from scale insects, but the impact of ant harvesting was particularly significant at 29°C, where combined effects of temperature and ants reduced honeydew standing crop to below detectable levels. Although temperature increases in the next 35 years will have limited effects on this system, by the end of this century, warmer temperatures may cause the availability of honeydew to decline. Decline of honeydew may have far-reaching trophic effects on honeydew and ant-mediated interactions. However, field-based studies that consider the full complexity of ecosystems may be required to elucidate these impacts.

Population differentiation and countergradient variation throughout the geographic range in the fern gametophyte Vittaria appalachiana

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Theory predicts that limited gene flow between populations will promote population differentiation, and experimental studies have found that differentiation is often explained by local adaptation in sexually reproducing angiosperms. However, few experiments have examined the drivers of differentiation among populations in asexual land plants with limited dispersal potential. Here, we evaluated the role of temperature in driving population differentiation in an asexual, obligate gametophyte fern species.

METHODS

We reciprocally transplanted Vittaria appalachiana gametophytes among six populations that spanned the species' geographic range in the Appalachian Mountains and Plateau. Temperature, survival, and senescence rates were measured for 1 year.

KEY RESULTS

Populations had significantly different fitness responses to different sites, consistent with the hypothesis that populations have differentiated across the species' range. There was some evidence for local adaptation in marginal populations and for countergradient selection favoring particularly robust genotypes at the northern range edge. Most populations had relatively high fitness at the site with the most stable temperature conditions and were negatively affected by decreasing minimum temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

Populations of Vittaria appalachiana exhibit highly variable responses to transplantation across the species' range, and only a small subset of these responses are due to local adaptation. Differences in daily minimum temperature explain some variation in fitness, but other site-specific factors also have significant impacts on transplant fitness. These results indicate that asexual, patchily distributed species with limited dispersal may exhibit population-specific responses to global climate change that have not been elucidated by empirical work focused on sexually reproducing angiosperms.

Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change

The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae-dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate-driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation.

Gene expression in closely related species mirrors local adaptation: consequences for responses to a warming world

Local adaptation of populations could preclude or slow range expansions in response to changing climate, particularly when dispersal is limited. To investigate the differential responses of populations to changing climatic conditions, we exposed poleward peripheral and central populations of two Lepidoptera to reciprocal, common-garden climatic conditions and compared their whole-transcriptome expression. We found evidence of simple population differentiation in both species, and in the species with previously identified population structure and phenotypic local adaptation, we found several hundred genes that responded in a synchronized and localized fashion. These genes were primarily involved in energy metabolism and oxidative stress, and expression levels were most divergent between populations in the same environment in which we previously detected divergence for metabolism. We found no localized genes in the species with less population structure and for which no local adaptation was previously detected. These results challenge the assumption that species are functionally similar across their ranges and poleward peripheral populations are preadapted to warmer conditions. Rather, some taxa deserve population-level consideration when predicting the effects of climate change because they respond in genetically based, distinctive ways to changing conditions.

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat-sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change.

Adaptations to "Thermal Time" Constraints in Papilio: Latitudinal and Local Size Clines Differ in Response to Regional Climate Change

Adaptations to "thermal time" (=Degree-day) constraints on developmental rates and voltinism for North American tiger swallowtail butterflies involve most life stages, and at higher latitudes include: smaller pupae/adults; larger eggs; oviposition on most nutritious larval host plants; earlier spring adult emergences; faster larval growth and shorter molting durations at lower temperatures. Here we report on forewing sizes through 30 years for both the northern univoltine P. canadensis (with obligate diapause) from the Great Lakes historical hybrid zone northward to central Alaska (65° N latitude), and the multivoltine, P. glaucus from this hybrid zone southward to central Florida (27° N latitude). Despite recent climate warming, no increases in mean forewing lengths of P. glaucus were observed at any major collection location (FL to MI) from the 1980s to 2013 across this long latitudinal transect (which reflects the "converse of Bergmann's size Rule", with smaller females at higher latitudes). Unlike lower latitudes, the Alaska, Ontonogon, and Chippewa/Mackinac locations (for P. canadensis) showed no significant increases in D-day accumulations, which could explain lack of size change in these northernmost locations. As a result of 3-4 decades of empirical data from major collection sites across these latitudinal clines of North America, a general "voltinism/size/D-day" model is presented, which more closely predicts female size based on D-day accumulations, than does latitude. However, local "climatic cold pockets" in northern Michigan and Wisconsin historically appeared to exert especially strong size constraints on female forewing lengths, but forewing lengths quickly increased with local summer warming during the recent decade, especially near the warming edges of the cold pockets. Results of fine-scale analyses of these "cold pockets" are in contrast to non-significant changes for other Papilio populations seen across the latitudinal transect for P. glaucus and P. canadensis in general, highlighting the importance of scale in adaptations to climate change. Furthermore, we also show that rapid size increases in cold pocket P. canadensis females with recent summer warming are more likely to result from phenotypic plasticity than genotypic introgression from P. glaucus, which does increase size in late-flight hybrids and P. appalachiensis.

A macrophysiological analysis of energetic constraints on geographic range size in mammals

Physiological processes are essential for understanding the distribution and abundance of organisms, and recently, with widespread attention to climate change, physiology has been ushered back to the forefront of ecological thinking. We present a macrophysiological analysis of the energetics of geographic range size using combined data on body size, basal metabolic rate (BMR), phylogeny and range properties for 574 species of mammals. We propose three mechanisms by which interspecific variation in BMR should relate positively to geographic range size: (i) Thermal Plasticity Hypothesis, (ii) Activity Levels/Dispersal Hypothesis, and (iii) Energy Constraint Hypothesis. Although each mechanism predicts a positive correlation between BMR and range size, they can be further distinguished based on the shape of the relationship they predict. We found evidence for the predicted positive relationship in two dimensions of energetics: (i) the absolute, mass-dependent dimension (BMR) and (ii) the relative, mass-independent dimension (MIBMR). The shapes of both relationships were similar and most consistent with that expected from the Energy Constraint Hypothesis, which was proposed previously to explain the classic macroecological relationship between range size and body size in mammals and birds. The fact that this pattern holds in the MIBMR dimension indicates that species with supra-allometric metabolic rates require among the largest ranges, above and beyond the increasing energy demands that accrue as an allometric consequence of large body size. The relationship is most evident at high latitudes north of the Tropics, where large ranges and elevated MIBMR are most common. Our results suggest that species that are most vulnerable to extinction from range size reductions are both large-bodied and have elevated MIBMR, but also, that smaller species with elevated MIBMR are at heightened risk. We also provide insights into the global latitudinal trends in range size and MIBMR and more general issues of phylogenetic and geographic scale.

Thermal variability increases the impact of autumnal warming and drives metabolic depression in an overwintering butterfly

Increases in thermal variability elevate metabolic rate due to Jensen's inequality, and increased metabolic rate decreases the fitness of dormant ectotherms by increasing consumption of stored energy reserves. Theory predicts that ectotherms should respond to increased thermal variability by lowering the thermal sensitivity of metabolism, which will reduce the impact of the warm portion of thermal variability. We examined the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate of overwintering Erynnis propertius (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) larvae from a stable or variable environment reared in the laboratory in a reciprocal common garden design, and used these data to model energy use during the winters of 1973–2010 using meteorological data to predict the energetic outcomes of metabolic compensation and phenological shifts. Larvae that experienced variable temperatures had decreased thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate, and were larger than those reared at stable temperatures, which could partially compensate for the increased energetic demands. Even with depressed thermal sensitivity, the variable environment was more energy-demanding than the stable, with the majority of this demand occurring in autumn. Autumn phenology changes thus had disproportionate influence on energy consumption in variable environments, and variable-reared larvae were most susceptible to overwinter energy drain. Therefore the energetic impacts of the timing of entry into winter dormancy will strongly influence ectotherm fitness in northern temperate environments. We conclude that thermal variability drives the expression of metabolic suppression in this species; that phenological shifts will have a greater impact on ectotherms in variable thermal environments; and that E. propertius will be more sensitive to shifts in phenology in autumn than in spring. This suggests that increases in overwinter thermal variability and/or extended, warm autumns, will negatively impact all non-feeding dormant ectotherms which lack the ability to suppress their overwinter metabolic thermal sensitivity.

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Population-level transcriptome sequencing of nonmodel organisms Erynnis propertius and Papilio zelicaon

BACKGROUND

Several recent studies have demonstrated the use of Roche 454 sequencing technology for de novo transcriptome analysis. Low error rates and high coverage also allow for effective SNP discovery and genetic diversity estimates. However, genetically diverse datasets, such as those sourced from natural populations, pose challenges for assembly programs and subsequent analysis. Further, estimating the effectiveness of transcript discovery using Roche 454 transcriptome data is still a difficult task.

RESULTS

Using the Roche 454 FLX Titanium platform, we sequenced and assembled larval transcriptomes for two butterfly species: the Propertius duskywing, Erynnis propertius (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) and the Anise swallowtail, Papilio zelicaon (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). The Expressed Sequence Tags (ESTs) generated represent a diverse sample drawn from multiple populations, developmental stages, and stress treatments. Despite this diversity, > 95% of the ESTs assembled into long (> 714 bp on average) and highly covered (> 9.6x on average) contigs. To estimate the effectiveness of transcript discovery, we compared the number of bases in the hit region of unigenes (contigs and singletons) to the length of the best match silkworm (Bombyx mori) protein--this "ortholog hit ratio" gives a close estimate on the amount of the transcript discovered relative to a model lepidopteran genome. For each species, we tested two assembly programs and two parameter sets; although CAP3 is commonly used for such data, the assemblies produced by Celera Assembler with modified parameters were chosen over those produced by CAP3 based on contig and singleton counts as well as ortholog hit ratio analysis. In the final assemblies, 1,413 E. propertius and 1,940 P. zelicaon unigenes had a ratio > 0.8; 2,866 E. propertius and 4,015 P. zelicaon unigenes had a ratio > 0.5.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultimately, these assemblies and SNP data will be used to generate microarrays for ecoinformatics examining climate change tolerance of different natural populations. These studies will benefit from high quality assemblies with few singletons (less than 26% of bases for each assembled transcriptome are present in unassembled singleton ESTs) and effective transcript discovery (over 6,500 of our putative orthologs cover at least 50% of the corresponding model silkworm gene).

A realistic assessment of the indicator potential of butterflies and other charismatic taxonomic groups

Charismatic groups of animals and plants often are proposed as sentinels of environmental status and trends. Nevertheless, many claims that a certain taxonomic group can provide more-general information on environmental quality are not evaluated critically. To address several of the many definitions of indicator species, we used butterflies to explore in some detail the attributes that affect implementation of indicators generically. There probably are few individual species, or sets of species, that can serve as scientifically valid, cost-effective measures of the status or trend of an environmental phenomenon that is difficult to measure directly. Nevertheless, there are species with distributions, abundances, or demographic characteristics that are responsive to known environmental changes. In this context, single or multiple species can serve as indicators when targets are defined explicitly, ecological relationships between the target and the putative indicators are well understood, and data are sufficient to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic responses. Although these situations exist, they are less common than might be apparent from an extensive and often confounded literature on indicators. Instead, the public appeal of charismatic groups may be driving much of their acclaim as indicators. The same taxon may not be appropriate for marketing a general conservation mission and for drawing strong inference about specific environmental changes. To provide insights into the progress of conservation efforts, it is essential to identify scientific and practical criteria for selection and application of indicators and then to examine whether a given taxonomic group meets those criteria.

Translocation experiments with butterflies reveal limits to enhancement of poleward populations under climate change

There is a pressing need to predict how species will change their geographic ranges under climate change. Projections typically assume that temperature is a primary fitness determinant and that populations near the poleward (and upward) range boundary are preadapted to warming. Thus, poleward, peripheral populations will increase with warming, and these increases facilitate poleward range expansions. We tested the assumption that poleward, peripheral populations are enhanced by warming using 2 butterflies (Erynnis propertius and Papilio zelicaon) that co-occur and have contrasting degrees of host specialization and interpopulation genetic differentiation. We performed a reciprocal translocation experiment between central and poleward, peripheral populations in the field and simulated a translocation experiment that included alternate host plants. We found that the performance of both central and peripheral populations of E. propertius were enhanced during the summer months by temperatures characteristic of the range center but that local adaptation of peripheral populations to winter conditions near the range edge could counteract that enhancement. Further, poleward range expansion in this species is prevented by a lack of host plants. In P. zelicaon, the fitness of central and peripheral populations decreased under extreme summer temperatures that occurred in the field at the range center. Performance in this species also was affected by an interaction of temperature and host plant such that host species strongly mediated the fitness of peripheral individuals under differing simulated temperatures. Altogether we have evidence that facilitation of poleward range shifts through enhancement of peripheral populations is unlikely in either study species.