Changes in routine laboratory tests and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Prognostic clinical and biological markers for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression: validation and implications for clinical trial design and analysis

BACKGROUND

With increasing recognition of the value of incorporating prognostic markers into amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) trial design and analysis plans, there is a pressing need to understand which among the prevailing clinical and biochemical markers have real value, and how they can be optimally used.

METHODS

A subset of patients with ALS recruited through the multi-center Phenotype-Genotype-Biomarker study (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02327845) was identified as "trial-like" based on meeting common trial eligibility criteria. Clinical phenotyping was performed by evaluators trained in relevant assessments. Serum neurofilament light (NfL) and phosphorylated neurofilament heavy (pNfH), urinary p75ECD, plasma microRNA-181, and an array of biochemical and clinical measures were evaluated for their prognostic value. Associations with functional progression were estimated by random-slopes mixed models of ALS functional rating scale-revised (ALSFRS-R) score. Associations with survival were estimated by log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression. Potential sample size savings from adjusting for given biomarkers in a hypothetical trial were estimated.

FINDINGS

Baseline serum NfL is a powerful prognostic biomarker, predicting survival and ALSFRS-R rate of decline. Serum NfL <40 pg/mL and >100 pg/mL correspond to future ALSFRS-R slopes of ∼0.5 and ∼1.5 points/month, respectively. Serum NfL also adds value to the best available clinical predictors, encapsulated by the European Network to Cure ALS (ENCALS) predictor score. In models of functional decline, the addition of NfL yields ∼25% sample size saving above those achieved by inclusion of either clinical predictors or ENCALS score alone. The prognostic value of serum pNfH, urinary p75ECD, and plasma miR-181ab is more limited.

INTERPRETATION

Among the multitude of biomarkers considered, only blood NfL adds value to the ENCALS prediction model and should be incorporated into analysis plans for all ongoing and future ALS trials. Defined thresholds of NfL might also be used in trial design, for enrichment or stratified randomisation, to improve trial efficiency.

FUNDING

NIH (U01-NS107027, U54-NS092091). ALSA (16-TACL-242).

Prognostic Clinical and Biological Markers for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Disease Progression: Validation and Implications for Clinical Trial Design and Analysis

Background

With increasing recognition of the value of incorporating prognostic markers into amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) trial design and analysis plans, there is a pressing need to understand which among the prevailing clinical and biochemical markers have real value, and how they can be optimally used.

Methods

A subset of patients with ALS recruited through the multi-center Phenotype-Genotype-Biomarker study (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02327845) was identified as "trial-like" based on meeting common trial eligibility criteria. Clinical phenotyping was performed by evaluators trained in relevant assessments. Serum neurofilament light (NfL) and phosphorylated neurofilament heavy (pNfH), urinary p75ECD, plasma microRNA-181, and an array of biochemical and clinical measures were evaluated for their prognostic value. Associations with functional progression were estimated by random-slopes mixed models of ALS functional rating scale-revised (ALSFRS-R) score. Associations with survival were estimated by log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression. Potential sample size savings from adjusting for given biomarkers in a hypothetical trial were estimated.

Findings

Baseline serum NfL is a powerful prognostic biomarker, predicting survival and ALSFRS-R rate of decline. Serum NfL <40pg/ml and >100pg/ml correspond to future ALSFRS-R slopes of ~0.5 and 1.5 points/month, respectively. Serum NfL also adds value to the best available clinical predictors, encapsulated by the European Network to Cure ALS (ENCALS) predictor score. In models of functional decline, the addition of NfL yields ~25% sample size saving above those achieved by inclusion of either clinical predictors or ENCALS score alone. The prognostic value of serum pNfH, urinary p75ECD, and plasma miR-181ab is more limited.

Interpretation

Among the multitude of biomarkers considered, only blood NfL adds value to the ENCALS prediction model and should be incorporated into analysis plans for all ongoing and future ALS trials. Defined thresholds of NfL might also be used in trial design, for enrichment or stratified randomisation, to improve trial efficiency.

Funding

NIH (U01-NS107027, U54-NS092091). ALSA (16-TACL-242).

Premorbid lipid levels and long-term risk of ALS-a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the temporal relationship between premorbid lipid levels and long-term amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) risk.

METHODS

From Norwegian cardiovascular health surveys (1974-2003), we collected information on total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), glucose, and other cardiovascular risk factors. ALS incidence and mortality were identified through validated Norwegian health registries. The relation between premorbid lipid levels and ALS risk was assessed by Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Out of 640,066 study participants (51.5% females), 974 individuals (43.5% females) developed ALS. Mean follow-up time was 23.7 (SD 7.1) years among ALS cases. One mmol/l increase in LDL-C was associated with 6% increase in risk for ALS (hazard ratio 1.06 [95% CI: 1.01-1.09]). Higher levels of TC and TG were also associated with increased ALS risk, but only within the last 6-7 years prior to ALS diagnosis or death. No association between HDL-C and ALS risk was found. Adjusting for body mass index, birth cohort, smoking, and physical activity did not alter the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of LDL-C are associated with increased ALS risk over 40 years later, compatible with a causal relationship. The temporal relationship between TG, TC, and ALS risk suggests that increased levels of these lipid biomarkers represent consequences of ALS.

Aquaporin 4 beyond a water channel; participation in motor, sensory, cognitive and psychological performances, a comprehensive review

Aquaporin 4 (AQP4) is a protein highly expressed in the central nervous system (CNS) and peripheral nervous system (PNS) as well as various other organs, whose different sites of action indicate its importance in various functions. AQP4 has a variety of essential roles beyond water homeostasis. In this article, we have for the first time summarized different roles of AQP4 in motor and sensory functions, besides cognitive and psychological performances, and most importantly, possible physiological mechanisms by which AQP4 can exert its effects. Furthermore, we demonstrated that AQP4 participates in pathology of different neurological disorders, various effects depending on the disease type. Since neurological diseases involve a spectrum of dysfunctions and due to the difficulty of obtaining a treatment that can simultaneously affect these deficits, it is therefore suggested that future studies consider the role of this protein in different functional impairments related to neurological disorders simultaneously or separately by targeting AQP4 expression and/or polarity modulation.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Serum Lipid Level Association: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analytic Study

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease with unknown etiology. Many metabolic alterations occur during ALS progress and can be used as a method of pre-diagnostic and early diagnosis. Dyslipidemia is one of the physiological changes observed in numerous ALS patients. The aim of this study is to analyze the possible relationship between the rate of disease progression (functional rating scale (ALS-FRS)) and the plasma lipid levels at the early stage of ALS. A systematic review was carried out in July 2022. The search equation was "Triglycerides AND amyotrophic lateral sclerosis" and its variants. Four meta-analyses were performed. Four studies were included in the meta-analysis. No significant differences were observed between the lipid levels (total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol) and the ALS-FRS score at the onset of the disease. Although the number of studies included in this research was low, the results of this meta-analytic study suggest that there is no clear relationship between the symptoms observed in ALS patients and the plasma lipid levels. An increase in research, as well as an expansion of the geographical area, would be of interest.

[The influence of uric acid on the course of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis]

Uric acid has antioxidant and neuroprotective properties. A number of studies show that high levels of uric acid may have a positive influence on the course of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), especially in males. The frequency of ALS is lower in patients with gout than in the general population. We present a case of a patient with gout and slowly progressive ALS. More research is needed on the potential role of uric acid in ALS and other neurodegenerative disorders.

Analysis of routine blood parameters in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and evaluation of a possible correlation with disease progression—a multicenter study

Objective

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) pathogenesis is still unclear, its course is considerably variable, and prognosis is hard to determine. Despite much research, there is still a lack of easily accessible markers predicting prognosis. We investigated routine blood parameters in ALS patients regarding correlations with disease severity, progression rate, and survival. Additionally, we analyzed disease and patients' characteristics relating to baseline blood parameter levels.

Methods

We analyzed creatine kinase (CK), albumin (ALB), creatinine (CREA), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and triglycerides (TG) levels around time of diagnosis in 1,084 ALS patients. We carried out linear regression analyses including disease and patients' characteristics with each blood parameter to detect correlations with them. Linear regression models were performed for ALSFRS-R at study entry, its retrospectively defined rate of decay and prospectively collected progression rate. Different survival analysis methods were used to examine associations between blood parameters and survival.

Results

We found higher CK (p-value 0.001), ALB (p-value <0.001), CREA (p-value <0.001), and HDL levels (p-value 0.044) at time of diagnosis being associated with better functional status according to ALSFRS-R scores at study entry. Additionally, higher CREA levels were associated with lower risk of death (p-value 0.003).

Conclusions

Our results indicate potential of CK, ALB, CREA, and HDL as disease severity or progression markers, and may also provide clues to ALS pathogenesis. However, these values are highly dependent on other variables, and further careful, longitudinal analyses will be necessary to prove the relevance of our findings.

Apolipoprotein A1 Enhances Endothelial Cell Survival in an In Vitro Model of ALS

Altered lipoprotein metabolism is considered a pathogenic component of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), a major high-density lipoprotein (HDL) protein, is associated with prevention of vascular damage. However, ApoA1's effects on damaged endothelium in ALS are unknown. This study aimed to determine therapeutic potential of ApoA1 for endothelial cell (EC) repair under a pathologic condition reminiscent of ALS. We performed in vitro studies using mouse brain ECs (mBECs) exposed to plasma from symptomatic G93A SOD1 mice. Dosage effects of ApoA1, including inhibition of the phosphoinoside 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt signaling pathway and integration of ApoA1 into mBECs were examined. Also, human bone marrow-derived endothelial progenitor cells (hBM-EPCs) and mBECs were co-cultured without cell contact to establish therapeutic mechanism of hBM-EPC transplantation. Results showed that ApoA1 significantly reduced mBEC death via the PI3K/Akt downstream signaling pathway. Also, ApoA1 was incorporated into mBECs as confirmed by blocked ApoA1 cellular integration. Co-culture system provided evidence that ApoA1 was secreted by hBM-EPCs and incorporated into injured mBECs. Thus, our study findings provide important evidence for ApoA1 as a potential novel therapeutic for endothelium protection in ALS. This in vitro study lays the groundwork for further in vivo research to fully determine therapeutic effects of ApoA1 in ALS.

Investigation of the prognostic predictive value of serum lipid profiles in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: roles of sex and hypermetabolism

The prognostic predictive value of lipid profiling in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) remains unclear. Here, we aimed to clarify the value of the levels of serum lipids, including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and triglycerides (TG), for predicting the prognosis in ALS. This was a single-center retrospective study of 78 patients with ALS. The serum lipid profiles at the first hospital visit after symptom onset were analyzed to determine the correlations of lipids with survival and physical parameters, including nutritional, respiratory, and metabolic conditions. The cutoff level for high HDL was defined as the third quartile, while that of low LDL and TG, as the first quartile. Hypermetabolism was defined as the ratio of resting energy expenditure to lean soft tissue mass ≥ 38 kcal/kg. High HDL was an independent factor for poor prognosis in all patients (hazards ratio [HR]: 9.87, p < 0.001) in the Cox proportional hazard model, including %vital capacity and the monthly decline rate in body mass index and the Revised Amyotrophic Lateral Functional Rating Scale score from symptom onset to diagnosis. Low LDL was a factor for poor prognosis (HR: 6.59, p = 0.017) only in women. Moreover, subgroup analyses with log-rank tests revealed that the prognostic predictive value of high HDL was evident only in the presence of hypermetabolism (p = 0.005). High HDL predicts poor prognosis in all patients, whereas low LDL, only in women. Hypermetabolism and high HDL synergistically augment the negative effect on prognosis.

Neutrophils-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Is Associated with Progression and Overall Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Background: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating and untreatable motor neuron disease, with a 3–5-year survival from diagnosis. Possible prognostic serum biomarkers include albumin, C-reactive protein, ferritin, creatinine, uric acid, hemoglobin, potassium, sodium, calcium, glucose, and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a marker of subclinical inflammation. Objective: To ascertain the influence of NLR on ALS progression rate and survival. Methods: Cross-sectional multicenter study including 146 consecutive incident and prevalent patients (88 males), aged >18 years, diagnosed according to the El Escorial criteria. The exclusion criteria were: (1) patients with tracheostomy or receiving mechanical ventilation; (2) patients with percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy; and (3) patients who did not sign the informed consent. The rate of disease progression (ΔFS score) represents the monthly decline of the ALSFRS-R score, and was computed as (48 − total ALSFRS-R at recruitment)/symptom duration in months. Patients were followed up to tracheotomy, death, or the end of the follow-up, whichever occurred first. To validate our findings, we used data retrieved from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) Database. Results: The median disease duration was 15 (range = 2–30) months. The mean ALSFRS-R score at recruitment was 35.8 ± 8.0 (range: 10–48), and the median ΔFS was 0.66 (range: 0–5.33). Age at onset, at diagnosis, and at recruitment were significantly lower in the lowest NLR tertile. NLR values positively correlated with ΔFS values (r = 0.28): the regression slope of NLR (log-values) was 0.60 (p < 0.001) before and 0.49 (p = 0.006) after adjustment for age at recruitment. The ΔFS score progressively increased from the lowest to the highest NLR tertile: 0.35 (IQR: 0.18–0.93), 0.62 (IQR: 0.25–1.09), and 0.86 (IQR: 0.53–1.92). Patients were followed for a median of 2 years. The mortality rate passed from 15.9 events per 100 person-years in patients belonging to the lowest NLR tertile to 52.8 in those in the highest tertile. The optimal cut-off value which best classified patients with the lowest and the highest mortality rate was set at the NLR value of 2.315. Indeed, the mortality rate of patients with an NLR value above such cut-off was twice the mortality rate of patients with a value below the cut-off (age adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32–3.53). In the PRO-ACT validation sample, patients with an NLR value above the cut-off consistently had a higher mortality rate than those with a value below the cut-off (age adjusted HR: 1.17, 95%CI: 1.01–1.35). Conclusions: NLR could be a candidate easy, fast, and low-cost marker of disease progression and survival in ALS. It may be associated with low-grade inflammation either as a direct mirror of the pathological process of disease progression, or as a consequence of neuronal death (reverse causation). However, prospective studies are needed to understand whether NLR changes during the course of the disease, before using it to monitor disease progression in ALS.

Metabolic Abnormalities, Dietary Risk Factors and Nutritional Management in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating progressive neurodegenerative disease that affects motor neurons, leading to a relentless paralysis of skeletal muscles and eventual respiratory failure. Although a small percentage of patients may have a longer survival time (up to 10 years), in most cases, the median survival time is from 20 to 48 months. The pathogenesis and risk factors for ALS are still unclear: among the various aspects taken into consideration, metabolic abnormalities and nutritional factors have been the focus of recent interests. Although there are no consistent findings regarding prior type-2 diabetes, hypercholesterolemia and ALS incidence, abnormalities in lipid and glucose metabolism may be linked to disease progression, leading to a relatively longer survival (probably as a result of counteract malnutrition and cachexia in the advanced stages of the disease). Among potential dietary risk factors, a higher risk of ALS has been associated with an increased intake of glutamate, while the consumption of antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compounds, such as vitamin E, n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, and carotenoids, has been related to lower incidence. Poor nutritional status and weight loss in ALS resulting from poor oral intake, progressive muscle atrophy, and the potential hypermetabolic state have been associated with rapid disease progression. It seems important to routinely perform a nutritional assessment of ALS patients at the earliest referral: weight maintenance (if adequate) or gain (if underweight) is suggested from the scientific literature; evidence of improved diet quality (in terms of nutrients and limits for pro-inflammatory dietary factors) and glucose and lipid control is yet to be confirmed, but it is advised. Further research is warranted to better understand the role of nutrition and the underlying metabolic abnormalities in ALS, and their contribution to the pathogenic mechanisms leading to ALS initiation and progression.

The value of serum uric acid as a prognostic biomarker in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Evidence from a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the value of uric acid (UA) as a prognostic biomarker for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using a meta-analysis of hazard ratio-based studies.

METHODS

We included data from Tokushima University (47 patients with ALS) and three previous studies (1835 patients with ALS) with a hazard ratio (HR) identified by a systematic computational search. A total of four studies and 1882 patients were enrolled in the pooled analysis. We pooled HRs of death or tracheostomy, which were estimated by a Cox proportional hazard model, using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed by Q statistic, and a p value < 0.1 was considered significant heterogeneity. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effect of each single study and the robustness of the summary effect. We evaluated publication bias by visual assessment of the funnel plot and Egger's test, and adjusted the bias using a trim-and-fill method.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis revealed that UA could be a prognostic factor for ALS (all, HR = 0.87, p < 0.001; men, HR = 0.83, p < 0.001; women, HR = 0.76, p < 0.001). The included studies were homogeneous (all, p = 0.43; men, p = 0.9; women, p = 0.49). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these summary effects. Publication bias was detected, which was adjusted for by a trim-and-fill method. The adjusted results showed significant summary effects (all, HR = 0.88, p = 0.002; men, HR = 0.83, p < 0.001; women, HR = 0.77, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The present meta-analysis suggests that the serum UA level could be a prognostic biomarker in patients with ALS. Sensitivity analyses and the trim-and-fill method supported the robustness of these results.

Aberrations of biochemical indicators in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Accumulating evidence has suggested that the pathological changes in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are not only confined to the central nervous system but also occur in the peripheral circulating system. Here, we performed a meta-analysis based on the PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, and CNKI databases, to find out biochemical indicators associated with energy metabolism, iron homeostasis, and muscle injury that are altered in ALS patients and their correlations with ALS phenotypes. Forty-six studies covering 17 biochemical indicators, representing 5454 ALS patients and 7986 control subjects, were included in this meta-analysis. Four indicators, including fasting blood glucose level (weighted mean difference [WMD] = 0.13, 95% CI [0.06–0.21], p = 0.001), serum ferritin level (WMD = 63.42, 95% CI [48.12–78.73], p < 0.001), transferrin saturation coefficient level (WMD = 2.79, 95% CI [1.52–4.05], p < 0.001), and creatine kinase level (WMD = 80.29, 95% CI [32.90–127.67], p < 0.001), were significantly higher in the ALS patients, whereas the total iron-binding capacity (WMD = − 2.42, 95% CI [− 3.93, − 0.90], p = 0.002) was significantly lower in ALS patients than in the control subjects. In contrast, the other 12 candidates did not show significant differences between ALS patients and controls. Moreover, pooled hazard ratios (HR) showed significantly reduced survival (HR = 1.38, 95% CI [1.02–1.88], p = 0.039) of ALS patients with elevated serum ferritin levels. These findings suggest that abnormalities in energy metabolism and disruption of iron homeostasis are involved in the pathogenesis of ALS. In addition, the serum ferritin level is negatively associated with the overall survival of ALS patients.

Lipid Profile in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Studies have investigated the lipid profile in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), including the levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and higher low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and the associations with mortality of ALS, but the results were inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to systematically answer this unsolved question.

Methods: We searched all the related studies that probed into the association between serum lipid levels and ALS based on PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library from January 1990 to July 2020. The quality of the included studies was evaluated by using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS). All the statistical analyses of this meta-analysis were performed using the Stata version 12.0 software.

Results: Fourteen studies with a total of 3,291 ALS patients and 3,367 controls were included. Among them, 10 studies compared the lipid profile between ALS patients and controls. The results indicated that compared with controls, ALS patients from both Europe and Asia had lower levels of TG and HDL, but the levels of TC and LDL were higher in ALS patients from Europe. However, after systemic analyses, the altered TC level was significant only in Asian ALS patients; the differences of other lipids were not significant. Concerning the effect of lipid profile on mortality of ALS, analyses of four cohort studies showed that the levels of all lipids were not associated with overall mortality in ALS.

Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that Asian ALS patients had lower TC levels than controls, and the levels of all lipids were not associated with mortality of ALS.

Model-based random forests for ordinal regression

We study and compare several variants of random forests tailored to prognostic models for ordinal outcomes. Models of the conditional odds function are employed to understand the various random forest flavours. Existing random forest variants for ordinal outcomes, such as Ordinal Forests and Conditional Inference Forests, are evaluated in the presence of a non-proportional odds impact of prognostic variables. We propose two novel random forest variants in the model-based transformation forest family, only one of which explicitly assumes proportional odds. These two novel transformation forests differ in the specification of the split procedures for the underlying ordinal trees. One of these split criteria is able to detect changes in non-proportional odds situations and the other one focuses on finding proportional-odds signals. We empirically evaluate the performance of the existing and proposed methods using a simulation study and illustrate the practical aspects of the procedures by a re-analysis of the respiratory sub-item in functional rating scales of patients suffering from Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS).

Serum creatinine levels in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Serum creatinine (Cr) is a biosynthetic product of creatine phosphate metabolism in muscles and is closely related to total muscle mass, but it is not easily affected by diet. Several studies have tried to explore the role of serum Cr levels in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but the results were inconsistent. Therefore, our study aims to explore the differences of serum Cr levels between ALS patients and controls and whether serum Cr at baseline is an independent predictor of survival. Methods: We searched all the related studies that probed into the association between Serum Cr levels and ALS based on PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane library from October 1952 to February 2019. The quality of the included studies was evaluated by using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), and all the statistical analysis of this meta-analysis was performed by Stata version 12.0. Results: Eight studies with a total of 11377 ALS patients and 937 controls were included. Among them, five studies indicated that ALS patients had lower serum Cr levels (SMD = -0.78, 95%CI [-0.97, -0.60]) compared to controls, and three studies showed that higher serum Cr levels in ALS patients were related to lower overall mortality (HR 0.89, 95%CI [0.80, 0.99]). Conclusion: The levels of serum Cr in ALS patients are significantly lower than those in controls, and they are inversely related to overall mortality in ALS patients. Therefore, the serum Cr, an easily accessible serological factor, may serve as a prognostic biomarker.

Survival forests under test: Impact of the proportional hazards assumption on prognostic and predictive forests for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis survival

We investigate the effect of the proportional hazards assumption on prognostic and predictive models of the survival time of patients suffering from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We theoretically compare the underlying model formulations of several variants of survival forests and implementations thereof, including random forests for survival, conditional inference forests, Ranger, and survival forests with L₁ splitting, with two novel variants, namely distributional and transformation survival forests. Theoretical considerations explain the low power of log-rank-based splitting in detecting patterns in non-proportional hazards situations in survival trees and corresponding forests. This limitation can potentially be overcome by the alternative split procedures suggested herein. We empirically investigated this effect using simulation experiments and a re-analysis of the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials database of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis survival, giving special emphasis to both prognostic and predictive models.

Lipids, apolipoproteins, and prognosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether lipids and apolipoproteins predict prognosis of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in a cohort study of 99 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis who were diagnosed during 2015 to 2018 and followed up until October 31, 2018, at the Neurology Clinic in Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm, Sweden.

METHODS

Total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein AI, apolipoprotein B, and lipid ratios were measured at the time of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis diagnosis or shortly thereafter. Death after amyotrophic lateral sclerosis diagnosis was used as the main outcome. The Cox model was used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals of death after amyotrophic lateral sclerosis diagnosis, after controlling for sex, age at diagnosis, site of symptom onset, diagnostic delay, body mass index, Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale-Revised score, and progression rate.

RESULTS

A 1-SD increase of total cholesterol (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.41-0.89, p = 0.01), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.92, p = 0.02), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (hazard ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.92, p = 0.02), apolipoprotein B (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.88, p = 0.01), or apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein AI ratio (hazard ratio 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.43-0.86, p < 0.01) was associated with a lower risk of death after amyotrophic lateral sclerosis diagnosis. A dose-response relationship was also noted when these biomarkers were analyzed as categorical variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Lipids and apolipoproteins are important prognostic indicators for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and should be monitored at the diagnosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Biochemical parameters in determination of nutritional status in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal, neurodegenerative disorder without effective treatment. Progressive dysphagia, depression, and hypermetabolism may lead to malnutrition. The aim of the present study was to analyze the potential utility of readily available, relatively inexpensive, and rapid strategy for using laboratory parameters to assess nutritional status of ALS patients.

METHODS

This study included 203 patients with ALS. The analysis of inflammatory parameters: C Reactive Protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), white blood cell count (WBC), lymphocytes number (LN), and fibrinogen concentration (FC) was followed by nutritional markers: serum concentration of albumin (ALB), prealbumin (PALB), transferrin (TRNF), and creatinine (CREA), which were correlated with demographic and clinical parameters: body mass index (BMI), ALS phenotype, disease duration, diagnosis delay, and functional and respiratory assessment.

RESULTS

Nearly 20% of patients had biochemical features of inflammation. Among patients without inflammation (n = 163), a decreased serum TRNF concentration was found in 84% of cases, PALB in 39%, ALB in 25%, and CREA in 53%. The median of PALB was the highest in patients with PMA (23.5 mg/dL) and the lowest in PBP (16.6 mg/dL) (p < 0.05). The CREA concentration correlated with the BMI (r = 0.25; p < 0.01), while PALB and TRNF significantly varied depending on the severity of dysphagia. Patients with dysphagia qualified to enteral nutrition showed significantly decreased concentration of PALB, triglycerides, as well as reduced forced vital capacity, BMI, and functional status.

CONCLUSIONS

CREA, PALB, ALB, and TNFR are easily accessible, accurate, and low-cost parameters useful in assessment of the nutritional status in ALS.

Metabolic Alteration and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Outcome: A Systematic Review

Background: The development of strategies that could not only efficiently detect the onset of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), a fatal neurodegenerative disorder with no cure but also predict its development and evaluate therapeutic intervention would be of great value. In this respect, the metabolic status of ALS patients has called attention. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the potential correlation between changes in ALS's metabolic parameters with the disease outcome in a systematic review. Methods: The manuscripts were manually searched within different databases (PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane). The inclusion criteria were original articles and reviews about individuals with ALS and its survival, disease prognosis and metabolism (weight, cholesterol, hypertension, BMI, and glycaemia). The authors also established three different exclusion criteria: studies including ALS and other degenerative disorders, works including animal models and published before the year 2000. Results: In total, 29 papers were selected. From all manuscripts, only 82.8% ensured the participation of sALS patients. Also, 27.6% of selected studies described the presence of a genetic mutation. Regarding ALS prognosis, patient's age, the age of ALS onset, ALS duration and survival, <50% of the papers addressed these issues. Specifically, regarding metabolism, 65.5% of articles mentioned BMI, 20.7% mentioned any data concerning hypertension, 6.89% cardiovascular risk, 10.3% obesity, 13.78% diabetes and 10.3% glycaemia. Concerning lipid metabolism, more results were gathered, but still, they did not suffice to establish a correlation with ALS development. Conclusions: Altogether, the authors concluded that available information is not enough to establish a link between ALS and metabolism. In reality, less than half of the manuscripts evaluated show an association between both factors. Nonetheless, it is worth mentioning that metabolism does influence ALS, but not in a unique manner. There is a debate about patients' hypo- and hypermetabolism. Thus, to provide a reliable record, a public policy in which all research and clinical centers might assess the parameters discussed herein is suggested. Accordingly, this systematic review attempts to provide a comprehensible database to facilitate multicentered collaboration, validation, and clinical translation.

Association of serum lipids with β-cell function in obese children and adolescents

Few data are available on the association between serum lipids and insulin secretion (ISEC) in children. We evaluated the association of triglycerides (TG), HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) and LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with ISEC in 1150 non-diabetic obese children and adolescents using multivariable robust median regression. The following models were employed: (1) IGI or incAUCR as the ISEC response variable; (2) QUICKI, OGIS, the Stumvoll index or the Matsuda insulin sensitivity index as the insulin sensitivity (ISEN) predictor; (3) TG, HDL-C and LDL-C as the predictors of interest; (4) 120-min glucose, age, sex and body mass index as confounders. LDL-C and TG were not associated with ISEC in any model. In three out of four IGI models, an increase of 1 interquartile range (IQR) of HDL-C was associated with a decrease of median incAUCR ranging from -9 (robust 95% CI -17 to -2) to -8 (-14 to -1) pmol/mmol. In two out of four incAUCR models, an increase of 1 IQR of HDL-C was associated with a decrease of median IGI ranging from -8 (-15 to -1) to -7 (-11 to -2) pmol/mmol. TG and LDL-C are not associated and HDL-C is inversely associated with ISEC in obese children and adolescents.

Prognostic analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis based on clinical features and plasma surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease with a wide range of survival times. We aimed to explore prognostic factors related to short survival based on clinical features and plasma metabolic signatures using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS). One hundred and thirty-eight sporadic ALS cases were enrolled serially, including 62 for the short-duration group (≤3 years) and 76 for the long-duration group (>3 years). Multivariate analysis showed that an older age of onset (>60 years; odds ratio [OR] = 3.98, 95% CI: 1.09-14.53), lower body mass index (BMI) (<18.5; OR = 6.80, 95% CI: 1.36-33.92), and lower ALSFRS-R score (<35; OR = 6.03, 95% CI: 1.42-25.63) were associated with higher odds of tracheotomy or death, while a higher uric acid (UA) level showed a protective effect (>356.36 μmol/L; OR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.05-0.73). SERS analysis showed significant differences between the two groups, and pathway analysis highlighted five main metabolic pathways, including metabolisms of glutathione, pyrimidine, phenylalanine, galactose, and phenylalanine-tyrosine-tryptophan biosynthesis. In conclusion, age of onset, BMI, ALSFRS-R score and UA, together with dysregulation of glucose, amino acid, nucleic acid, and antioxidant metabolism contributed to disease progression, and are therefore potential therapeutic targets for ALS.

The potential roles of aquaporin 4 in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Aquaporin 4 (AQP4) is a primary water channel found on astrocytes in the central nervous system (CNS). Besides its function in water and ion homeostasis, AQP4 has also been documented to be involved in a myriad of acute and chronic cerebral pathologies, including autoimmune neurodegenerative diseases. AQP4 has been postulated to be associated with the incidence of a progressive neurodegenerative disorder known as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a disease that targets the motor neurons, causing muscle weakness and eventually paralysis. Raised AQP4 levels were noted in association with vessels surrounded with swollen astrocytic processes as well as in the brainstem, cortex, and gray matter in patients with terminal ALS. AQP4 depolarization may lead to motor neuron degeneration in ALS via GLT-1. Besides, alterations in AQP4 expression in ALS may result in the loss of blood-brain barrier (BBB) integrity. Changes in AQP4 function may also disrupt K⁺ homeostasis and cause connexin dysregulation, the latter of which is associated to ALS disease progression. Furthermore, AQP4 suppression augments recovery in motor function in ALS, a phenomenon thought to be associated to NGF. No therapeutic drug targeting AQP4 has been developed to date. Nevertheless, the plethora of suggestive experimental results underscores the significance of further exploration into this area.

Risk factors in Swedish young men for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in adulthood

Recent research suggests that the incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) may be on the rise. Since ALS becomes predominant in later life, most studies on causal factors are conducted in middle-aged or older populations where potentially important influences from early life can usually not be adequately captured. We aimed to investigate predictors in young Swedish men for ALS in adulthood. Therefore, we performed a prospective cohort study of young men (aged 16-25, n = 1,819,817) who enlisted 1968-2005 and took part in comprehensive conscription examinations. Incident cases of ALS (n = 526) during up to 46 years of follow-up were identified in the National Hospital Register and Swedish Cause of Death Register. Those who developed ALS had lower BMI (body mass index) at conscription than their peers (p = 0.03). The risk of ALS during follow-up was calculated with Cox proportional hazards models. No associations were found with physical fitness, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, or non-psychotic mental disorders. Low overall muscle strength compared to high overall muscle strength [hazard ratio (HR) 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.83] and low BMI (a one-unit increase HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93-0.99) and lower erythrocyte volume fraction (a one-unit increase HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.92-0.998) were the statistically significant predictors for ALS in adjusted models. These findings provide novel epidemiologic evidence of a prospective association between low overall muscle strength and erythrocyte volume fraction in young men and ALS risk.