Health effects from heat waves in France: an economic evaluation

Mortality burden and economic loss attributable to cold and heat in Central and South America

Background

We quantify the mortality burden and economic loss attributable to nonoptimal temperatures for cold and heat in the Central and South American countries in the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network.

Methods

We collected data for 66 locations from 13 countries in Central and South America to estimate location-specific temperature-mortality associations using time-series regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We calculated the attributable deaths for cold and heat as the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles, above and below the minimum mortality temperature, and used the value of a life year to estimate the economic loss of delayed deaths.

Results

The mortality impact of cold varied widely by country, from 9.64% in Uruguay to 0.22% in Costa Rica. The heat-attributable fraction for mortality ranged from 1.41% in Paraguay to 0.01% in Ecuador. Locations in arid and temperate climatic zones showed higher cold-related mortality (5.10% and 5.29%, respectively) than those in tropical climates (1.71%). Arid and temperate climatic zones saw lower heat-attributable fractions (0.69% and 0.58%) than arid climatic zones (0.92%). Exposure to cold led to an annual economic loss of $0.6 million in Costa Rica to $472.2 million in Argentina. In comparison, heat resulted in economic losses of $0.05 million in Ecuador to $90.6 million in Brazil.

Conclusion

Most of the mortality burden for Central and South American countries is caused by cold compared to heat, generating annual economic losses of $2.1 billion and $290.7 million, respectively. Public health policies and adaptation measures in the region should account for the health effects associated with nonoptimal temperatures.

Impact of heat waves on semen quality: A retrospective study in Argentina between 2005 and 2023

Heat waves, defined as periods with daily temperatures surpassing the historical average for a specific region, have become more frequent worldwide in recent years. Previous studies have reported a negative association between temperature and semen quality, but the focus has mainly been on Asian and European populations. The study included 54,926 men (18-60 years) undergoing routine semen analysis between 2005 and 2023 at CEUSA-LAEH andrology unit, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hourly temperature readings were provided by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. R programming (R Studio v2022.07.2) was used to define heat waves, calculate key characteristics, visualize results, and perform statistical tests at the IBYME laboratory. During the period studied, a total of 124 days had heat waves (defined after at least 3 consecutive days with 32.3 °C and 22 °C). Men exposed to heat waves during spermatogenesis exhibited lower sperm number (concentration and count; P < 0.0001) and decreased normal morphology (percentage of normal sperm and normal motile count; P < 0.05) compared to those not exposed. These differences were most pronounced between semen samples from years with several heat waves (2013, 2023) and none (2005, 2007, 2016), displaying 4-5 times higher fold changes (P < 0.05). Further analysis employing multiple regression revealed a significantly negative association between semen quality and heat wave length, suggesting that a prolonged exposure may be more detrimental than an acute exposure. Subsequent analysis focusing on prolonged exposure (≥6-days heat wave) during spermatogenesis revealed a negative (P < 0.05) association between early exposure (spermatocytogenesis: 64-90 days prior semen collection) and semen quality. This study underscores the negative association between early exposure to heat waves during sperm development and semen quality, raising concerns about its possible association with the worldwide declining male fertility. A comprehensive collaborative approach is crucial, involving global governmental policies, sustainable practices, and coordinated efforts across scientific, healthcare, and policy domains.

Better accounting for long-term health effects in economic assessments: an illustration for air pollution in the Canton of Geneva

OBJECTIVES

We propose a general framework for estimating long-term health and economic effects that takes into account four time-related aspects. We apply it to a reduction in exposure to air pollution in the Canton of Geneva.

STUDY DESIGN

Methodological developments on the evaluation of long-term economic and health benefits, with an empirical illustration.

METHODS

We propose a unified framework-the comprehensive impact assessment (CIA)-to assess the long-term effects of morbidity and mortality in health and economic terms. This framework takes full account of four time-related issues: cessation lag, policy/technical implementation timeframe, discounting and time horizon. We compare its results with those obtained from standard quantitative health impact assessment (QHIA) in an empirical illustration involving air pollution reduction in the canton of Geneva.

RESULTS

We find that by neglecting time issues, the QHIA estimates greater health and economic benefits than the CIA. The overestimation is about 50% under reasonable assumptions and increases ceteris paribus with the magnitude of the cessation lag and the discount factor. It decreases both with the time horizon and with the implementation timeframe.

CONCLUSION

A proper evaluation of long-term health and economic effects is an important issue when they are to be used in cost-benefit analyses, particularly for mortality, which often represents the largest fraction. We recommend using the CIA to calculate more accurate values.

A systematic review of ambient heat and sleep in a warming climate

Climate change is elevating nighttime and daytime temperatures worldwide, affecting a broad continuum of behavioral and health outcomes. Disturbed sleep is a plausible pathway linking rising ambient temperatures with several observed adverse human responses shown to increase during hot weather. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the literature investigating the relationship between ambient temperature and valid sleep outcomes measured in real-world settings, globally. We show that higher outdoor or indoor temperatures are generally associated with degraded sleep quality and quantity worldwide. The negative effect of heat persists across sleep measures, and is stronger during the hottest months and days, in vulnerable populations, and the warmest regions. Although we identify opportunities to strengthen the state of the science, limited evidence of fast sleep adaptation to heat suggests rising temperatures induced by climate change and urbanization pose a planetary threat to human sleep, and therefore health, performance, and wellbeing.

Effect of heatwaves on daily hospital admissions in Portugal, 2000-18: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Climate change has increased the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, posing a serious threat to public health. Although the link between high temperatures and premature mortality has been extensively studied, the comprehensive quantification of heatwave effects on morbidity remains underexplored.

METHODS

In this observational study, we assessed the relationship between heatwaves and daily hospital admissions at a county level in Portugal. We considered all major diagnostic categories and age groups (<18 years, 18-64 years, and ≥65 years), over a 19-year period from 2000 to 2018, during the extended summer season, defined as May 1, to Sept 30. We did a comprehensive geospatial analysis, integrating over 12 million hospital admission records with heatwave events indexed by the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), covering all 278 mainland counties. We obtained data from the Hospital Morbidity Database and E-OBS daily gridded meteorological data for Europe from 1950 to present derived from in-situ observations. To estimate the effect of heatwaves on hospital admissions, we applied negative binomial regression models at both national and county levels.

FINDINGS

We found a statistically significant overall increase in daily hospital admissions during heatwave days (incidence rate ratio 1·189 [95% CI 1·179-1·198]; p<0·0001). All age groups were affected, with children younger than 18 years being the most affected (21·7% [20·6-22·7] increase in admissions; p<0·0001), followed by the working-age (19·7% [18·7-20·7]; p<0·0001) and elderly individuals (17·2% [16·2-18·2]; p<0·0001). All 25 major disease diagnostic categories showed significant increases in hospital admissions, particularly burns (34·3% [28·7-40·1]; p<0·0001), multiple significant trauma (26·8% [22·2-31·6]; p<0·0001), and infectious and parasitic diseases (25·4% [23·5-27·3]; p<0·0001). We also found notable increases in endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases (25·1% [23·4-26·8]; p<0·0001), mental diseases and disorders (23·0% [21·1-24·8]; p<0·0001), respiratory diseases (22·4% [21·2-23·6]; p<0·0001), and circulatory system disorders (15·8% [14·7-16·9]; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide statistically significant evidence of the association between heatwaves and increased hospitalisations across all age groups and for all major causes of disease. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the full extent of heatwaves' impact on hospitalisations using the EHF index over a 19-year period, encompassing an entire country, and spanning 25 disease categories during multiple heatwave events. Our data offer crucial information to guide policy makers in effectively and efficiently allocating resources to address the profound health-care consequences resulting from climate change.

FUNDING

None.

Health impacts of a cold wave and its economic loss assessment in China's high-altitude city, Xining

OBJECTIVE

Amidst climate change, extensive research has centered on the health impacts of heatwaves, yet the consequences of cold spells, particularly in cooler, higher-altitude regions, remain under-explored.

METHODS

Analyzing climatic data and non-accidental mortality in Xining, China's second-highest provincial capital, from 2016 to 2020, this study defines cold spells as daily mean temperatures below the 10th, 7.5th, or 5th percentiles for 2-4 consecutive days. A time-stratified case-crossover approach and distributional lag nonlinear modeling were used to assess the link between cold spells and mortality, calculating attributable fractions (AFs) and numbers (ANs) of deaths. The study also examined the impact of cold spells over different periods and analyzed the value of a statistical life (VSL) loss in 2018, a year with frequent cold spells. Stratified analyses by sex, age, and education level were conducted.

RESULTS

A significant association was found between cold spells and non-accidental mortality, with a relative risk of 1.548 (95% CI: 1.300, 1.845). The AF was 33.48%, with an AN of 9,196 deaths during the study's cold period. A declining trend in mortality risk was observed from 2019-2020. The 2018 VSL was approximately 2.875 billion CNY, about 1.75% of Xining's GDP. Higher risks were noted among males, individuals aged ≥ 65, and those with lower education levels.

CONCLUSION

The findings underscore the vulnerability and economic losses of high-altitude cities to cold spells. Implementing interventions such as improved heating, educational programs, and community support is vital for mitigating these adverse health effects.

A scoping review of human health co-benefits of forest-based climate change mitigation in Europe

Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation.

Social-economic transitions and vulnerability to extreme temperature events from 1960 to 2020 in Chinese cities

Climate change leads to more frequent and intense extreme temperature events, causing a significant number of excess deaths. Using an epidemiological approach, we analyze all-cause deaths related to heatwaves and cold spells in 2,852 Chinese counties from 1960 to 2020. Economic losses associated with these events are determined through the value of statistical life. Findings reveal that cold-related cumulative excess deaths (1,133 thousand) are approximately 2.5 times higher than heat-related deaths, despite an increase in heat-related fatalities in recent decades. Monetized mortality due to heat-related events is estimated at 1,284 billion CNY, while cold-related economic loss is 1,510 billion CNY. Notably, cities located in colder regions experience more heat-related excess deaths, and vice versa. Economic development does not significantly reduce mortality risks to heatwaves across China. This study provides insights into the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of heatwaves and cold spells mortality, essential for policymakers ensuring long-term climate adaptation and sustainability.

Health risks from extreme heat in China: Evidence from health insurance

Global warming has accentuated the effects of extreme heat on health. Health insurance, functioning as a risk management tool, has the potential to alleviate these impacts. Consequently, this paper investigates the correlation between extreme heat events and the demand for health insurance in China. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we have observed a substantial increase in the likelihood of residents purchasing health insurance during extreme heat events. To be specific, for every extra day of extreme heat events annually, there is a 0.3% increase in the probability of purchasing health insurance. This effect is not uniform across different demographic groups. It is particularly pronounced among middle-aged and elderly individuals, rural residents, those with lower educational levels, higher income brackets, and individuals residing in underprivileged areas with limited access to green spaces and healthcare facilities. Furthermore, our study indicates that the increased frequency of extreme heat events not only impacts individuals' physical health but also triggers negative emotions, which in turn drive risk-averse behavior related to health insurance purchases. These findings carry substantial policy implications for mitigating the economic consequences of climate change.

Methods of Assessing Health Care Costs in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of Heatwaves and Ambulance Dispatches in Tasmania, Australia

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rise in global temperatures, with this trend projected to increase into the future. Rising temperatures result in an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwave events, with an associated increase in poor health outcomes for vulnerable individuals. This places an increasing strain on health care services. However, methods calculating future health care costs associated with this trend are poorly understood. We calculated health care costs attributable to heatwave events in Tasmania 2009-2019, using ambulance dispatches as a case study. We also modeled the expected health and economic burden for projected heatwave frequencies between 2010 and 2089. We developed our models based on two possible approaches to describing population adaptation to heatwaves-an adapted population calculated by determining heatwave episodes using a rolling baseline, and a non-adapted population calculated by determining heatwave episodes using a static baseline. Using a rolling baseline calculation for 2010 to 2089, we estimated additional ambulance costs averaging AUD$57,147 per year and totaling AUD$4,571,788. For the same period using a static baseline, we estimated additional ambulance costs averaging AUD$517,342 per year and totaling AUD$41,387,349. While this method is suitable for estimating the health care costs associated with heatwaves, it could be utilized for estimating health care costs related to other climate-related extreme events. Different methods of estimating heatwaves, modeling an adapted versus non-adapted population, provide substantial differences in projected costs. There is potential for considerable health system cost savings when a population is supported to adapt to extreme heat.

Rescue service deployment data as an indicator of heat morbidity in Frankfurt / Main, Germany (2014-2022) - Trend association with various heat exposure indicators and considerations for outreach

Many publications dealt with the monitoring of heat-related mortality. Fewer analyses referred to indicators of heat-related morbidity. The aim of this work was to describe the heat-related morbidity using rescue service data from the city of Frankfurt/Main, Germany for the time period 2014-2022, with regard to the questions: 1) How do rescue service deployments develop over the years? Is there a trend identifiable towards a decrease in deployments over the years, e.g. as an effect of either (physiological) adaptation of the population or of the measures for prevention of heat-related morbidity? 2) Which heat parameters (days with a heat warning, heat days, heat weeks, heat waves) are most strongly associated with heat-related morbidity in terms of rescue service deployments and might therefore be additionally used as an easily communicable and understandable heat-warning indicator? Rescue service data were provided by the interdisciplinary medical supply compass system "IVENA" and adjusted for population development including age development. The effect of various indicators for heat exposure, such as days with a heat warning from the German meteorological service based on the scientific concept of "perceived heat", heat days, heat wave days and heat week days on different endpoints for heat morbidity (deployments in total as well as for heat associated diagnoses) was calculated using both difference-based (difference ± 95% CI) and ratio-based (ratio ± 95% CI) effect estimators. Rescue services deployments in summer months increased overall from 2014 to 2022 in all age groups over the years (2698 to 3517/100.000 population). However, there was a significant decrease in 2020, which could be explained by the special situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, probably caused by the absence of tourists and commuters from the city. In addition, no data are available on the actual implementation of the measures by the population. Therefore, an effect of the measures taken to prevent heat-associated morbidity in Frankfurt am Main could not be directly demonstrated, and our first question cannot be answered on the basis of these data. Almost all heat definitions used for exposure (day with a heat warning, heat day, heat wave day, heat week day) showed significant effects on heat-associated diagnoses in every year. When analysing the effect on all deployments, the effect was in part strongly dependent on individual years: Heat wave days and heat week days even showed negative effects in some years. The definition heat day led to a significant increase in rescue service deployments in all single years between 2014 and 2022 (ratio 2014-2022 1.09 (95CI 1.07-1.11); with a range of 1.05 (95CI 1.01-1.09) in 2020 and 1.14 (95CI 1.08-1.21) in 2014), this was not the case for days with a heat warning (ratio 2014-2022 1.04 (95CI1.02-1.05); with a range of 1.01 (95CI 0.97-1.05) in 2017 and 1.16 (95CI 1.10-1.23). Thus being not inferior to the heat warning day, the "heat day" defined as ≥32 °C maximum temperature, easily obtainable from the weather forecast, can be recommended for the activities of the public health authorities (warning, surveillance etc.) regarding heat health action planning.

A management perspective on resilience in healthcare: a framework and avenues for future research

Recent major health shocks, such as the 2014-16 Ebola, the Zika outbreak, and, last but not least, the COVID-19 pandemic, have strongly contributed to drawing attention to the issue of resilience in the healthcare domain. Nevertheless, the scientific literature appears fragmented, creating difficulties in developing incremental research in this relevant managerial field.To fill this gap, this systematic literature review aims to provide a clear state of the art of the literature dealing with resilience in healthcare. Specifically, from the analysis of the theoretical articles and reviews, the key dimensions of resilience are identified, and a novel classification framework is proposed. The classification framework is then used to systematize extant empirical contributions. Two main dimensions of resilience are identified: the approach to resilience (reactive vs. proactive) and the type of crisis to deal with (acute shocks vs. chronic stressors). Four main streams of research are thus identified: (i) proactive approaches to acute shocks; (ii) proactive approaches to chronic stressors; (iii) reactive approaches to acute shocks; and (iv) reactive approaches to chronic stressors. These are scrutinised considering three additional dimensions: the level of analysis, the resources to nurture resilience, and the country context. The classification framework and the associated mapping contribute to systematising the fragmented literature on resilience in healthcare, providing a clear picture of the state of the art in this field and drawing a research agenda that opens interesting paths for future research.

Health effects of climate change in Africa: A call for an improved implementation of prevention measures

The world's climate, particularly in Africa, has changed substantially during the past few decades, contributed by several human activities. Africa is one of the continents that is most vulnerable to climate change globally. Since the beginning of 2022, extreme weather events in Africa have affected about 19 million people and killed at least 4,000 individuals. Cyclones, floods, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and famine were among the severe weather occurrences. Natural disasters and extreme weather events brought on by climate change may compromise access to clean water, sanitation systems, and healthcare facilities, making people more vulnerable to a number of illnesses. Floods and drought can lead to both communicable and non-communicable diseases. The African population is more likely to experience more mental health disorders than before because of natural disasters, which result in the loss of property and sometimes loss of lives more frequently. We, therefore, call for an improved implementation of strategies to prevent the health effects of climate change so that the health of the people in Africa can be maintained.

Heatwave and mental health

Physical health has been associated with ambient temperature and heatwave. With the frequent occurrence of heatwave, the adaptive effects and mechanisms on mental health remain uncertain. On the basis of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we estimated the relationship between heatwaves and self-assessed mental health scores in the Chinese population aged 50 and above. This study has identified that with each additional heatwave event, mental health scores decreased by an average of 0.027 points, which is equivalent to 0.3% of the average level. Heat is more likely to affect groups with low education, no medical insurance, and living in rural areas. In mechanistic exploration, we found that stress emotion is a fully mediating effect. Heat led to reduced health activities and more frequent drinking, which may lead to lower psychological well-being. Moreover, good dietary preference is a regulator that can help mitigate the adverse effects of heat on mental health. This study corroborates the impact of heat on spiritual welfare, and demonstrates the mechanisms and channels of impact, which can help reduce global economic losses due to mental health problems.

Regional Inequalities and Influencing Factors of Residents' Health in China: Analysis from the Perspective of Opening-Up

While opening-up promotes regional economic development, its impact on the residents' health level cannot be ignored. Based on provincial data of China from 2009 to 2020, the Gini Coefficient and Theil Index are used to analyze the regional inequalities in residents' health in China. The Difference-in-Difference model is constructed to study the impact of China's opening-up policies and other factors on residents' health. The results show that, firstly, the health levels of Chinese residents have steadily improved and regional inequalities have been gradually narrowing. Secondly, the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly improved the residents' health along the route, while the Pilot Free Trade Zone, which is another important opening-up policy in China, has had an inhibitory effect on the health of residents. Thirdly, it is proven that the Belt and Road Initiative improves the health of residents in provinces along the route by increasing the degree of opening-up and improving the regional environmental quality. This study will support and advance the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially SDG3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Mitigation strategies for heat-related illness during mass gatherings: Hajj experience

Introduction

To mitigate morbidity, mortality, and impacts of heat-related illnesses (HRIs) on health, it was vital to implement a comprehensive framework for HRI prevention and control. A recognized tool from the field of trauma prevention known as the Haddon matrix was applied. The matrix states that any event is affected by three factors: host, agent, and environment. In addition, another recognized tool known as the combined model was used in this study. The combined model is a three-dimensional model that includes the idea for the three axes of Haddon's matrix with the methodology of the community risk reduction (CRR) model.

Aim of the study

To identify the environmental and individual risk factors of HRIs based on the Haddon matrix and the recommended prevention strategies by the CRR tool by using the combined model.

Methodology

An extensive literature review was conducted to assess all the risk factors associated with HRI, as well as preventive measures. Then the Haddon matrix was used to structure, separating human factors from technical and environmental details and timing. After that, the combined model was used to set all responses and mitigation measures for each element obtained from the Haddon matrix tool.

Conclusion

Projected increases in heat stress over the globe require the formulation and implementation of evidence-based HRI mitigation and preventive measures. In this study, we implemented the combined model that was utilized as a systematic strategy for the more theoretical framework of Haddon's matrix. Using the Haddon matrix to determine the HRI risk factors and the combined model to mitigate its impact was practical and helpful in planning, preparedness, and mitigating the HRIs during Hajj, provided a broad approach equivalent to the Swiss cheese model, and would facilitate an informed decision.

Methods for Quantifying, Projecting, and Managing the Health Risks of Climate Change

Quantifying Health Risks of Climate ChangeA rapidly increasing literature base is quantifying associations between climate change and health outcomes. Here, Ebi reviews methods for quantifying, projecting, and managing the health risks of climate change.

Climate change and global health: A call to more research and more action

There is increasing understanding, globally, that climate change and increased pollution will have a profound and mostly harmful effect on human health. This review brings together international experts to describe both the direct (such as heat waves) and indirect (such as vector-borne disease incidence) health impacts of climate change. These impacts vary depending on vulnerability (i.e., existing diseases) and the international, economic, political, and environmental context. This unique review also expands on these issues to address a third category of potential longer-term impacts on global health: famine, population dislocation, and environmental justice and education. This scholarly resource explores these issues fully, linking them to global health in urban and rural settings in developed and developing countries. The review finishes with a practical discussion of action that health professionals around the world in our field can yet take.

Estimation of Relative Risk of Mortality and Economic Burden Attributable to High Temperature in Wuhan, China

In the context of climate change, most of the global regions are facing the threat of high temperature. Influenced by tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific Ocean, high temperatures are more likely to occur in central China, and the economic losses caused by heat are in urgent need of quantification to form the basis for health decisions. In order to study the economic burden of high temperature on the health of Wuhan residents between 2013 and 2019, we employed meta-analysis and the value of statistical life (VSL) approach to calculate the relative risk of high temperature health endpoints, the number of premature deaths, and the corresponding economic losses in Wuhan City, China. The results suggested that the pooled estimates of relative risk of death from high temperature health endpoints was 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15, 1.39]. The average number of premature deaths caused by high temperature was estimated to be 77,369 (95% CI: 48,906–105,198) during 2013–2019, and the induced economic losses were 156.1 billion RMB (95% CI: 92.28–211.40 billion RMB), accounting for 1.81% (95% CI: 1.14–2.45%) of Wuhan's annual GDP in the seven-year period. It can be seen that high temperature drives an increase in the premature deaths, and the influence of high temperature on human health results in an economic burden on the health system and population in Wuhan City. It is necessary for the decision-makers to take measures to reduce the risk of premature death and the proportion of economic loss of residents under the impacts of climate change.