Using machine learning to characterize heart failure across the scales

Personalized evaluation of the passive myocardium in ischemic cardiomyopathy via computational modeling using Bayesian optimization

Biomechanics-based patient-specific modeling is a promising approach that has proved invaluable for its clinical potential to assess the adversities caused by ischemic heart disease (IHD). In the present study, we propose a framework to find the passive material properties of the myocardium and the unloaded shape of cardiac ventricles simultaneously in patients diagnosed with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). This was achieved by minimizing the difference between the simulated and the target end-diastolic pressure-volume relationships (EDPVRs) using black-box Bayesian optimization, based on the finite element analysis (FEA). End-diastolic (ED) biventricular geometry and the location of the ischemia were determined from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging. We employed our pipeline to model the cardiac ventricles of three patients aged between 57 and 66 years, with and without the inclusion of valves. An excellent agreement between the simulated and the target EDPVRs has been reached. Our results revealed that the incorporation of valvular springs typically leads to lower hyperelastic parameters for both healthy and ischemic myocardium, as well as a higher fiber Green strain in the viable regions compared to models without valvular stiffness. Furthermore, the addition of valve-related effects did not result in significant changes in myofiber stress after optimization. We concluded that more accurate results could be obtained when cardiac valves were considered in modeling ventricles. The present novel and practical methodology paves the way for developing digital twins of ischemic cardiac ventricles, providing a non-invasive assessment for designing optimal personalized therapies in precision medicine.

Decoding pathology: the role of computational pathology in research and diagnostics

Traditional histopathology, characterized by manual quantifications and assessments, faces challenges such as low-throughput and inter-observer variability that hinder the introduction of precision medicine in pathology diagnostics and research. The advent of digital pathology allowed the introduction of computational pathology, a discipline that leverages computational methods, especially based on deep learning (DL) techniques, to analyze histopathology specimens. A growing body of research shows impressive performances of DL-based models in pathology for a multitude of tasks, such as mutation prediction, large-scale pathomics analyses, or prognosis prediction. New approaches integrate multimodal data sources and increasingly rely on multi-purpose foundation models. This review provides an introductory overview of advancements in computational pathology and discusses their implications for the future of histopathology in research and diagnostics.

Synergistic Biophysics and Machine Learning Modeling to Rapidly Predict Cardiac Growth Probability

Computational models that can predict growth and remodeling of the heart could have important clinical applications. However, the time it takes to calibrate and run current models while considering data uncertainty and variability makes them impractical for routine clinical use. This study aims to address this need by creating a computational framework to efficiently predict cardiac growth probability. We utilized a biophysics model to rapidly simulate cardiac growth following mitral valve regurgitation (MVR). Here we developed a two-tiered Bayesian History Matching approach augmented with Gaussian process emulators for efficient calibration of model parameters to align with growth outcomes within a 95% confidence interval. We first generated a synthetic data set to assess the accuracy of our framework, and the effect of changes in data uncertainty on growth predictions. We then calibrated our model to match baseline and chronic canine MVR data and used an independent data set to successfully validate the ability of our calibrated model to accurately predict cardiac growth probability. The combined biophysics and machine learning modeling framework we proposed in this study can be easily translated to predict patient-specific cardiac growth.

A cross species thermoelectric and spatiotemporal analysis of alternans in live explanted hearts using dual voltage-calcium fluorescence optical mapping

Objective.Temperature plays a crucial role in influencing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the heart. Electrical instabilities due to specific thermal conditions typically lead to early period-doubling bifurcations and beat-to-beat alternans. These pro-arrhythmic phenomena manifest in voltage and calcium traces, resulting in compromised contractile behaviors. In such intricate scenario, dual optical mapping technique was used to uncover unexplored multi-scale and nonlinear couplings, essential for early detection and understanding of cardiac arrhythmia.Approach.We propose a methodological analysis of synchronized voltage-calcium signals for detecting alternans, restitution curves, and spatiotemporal alternans patterns under different thermal conditions, based on integral features calculation. To validate our approach, we conducted a cross-species investigation involving rabbit and guinea pig epicardial ventricular surfaces and human endocardial tissue under pacing-down protocols.Main results.We show that the proposed integral feature, as the area under the curve, could be an easily applicable indicator that may enhance the predictability of the onset and progression of cardiac alternans. Insights into spatiotemporal correlation analysis of characteristic spatial lengths across different heart species were further provided.Significance.Exploring cross-species thermoelectric features contributes to understanding temperature-dependent proarrhythmic regimes and their implications on coupled spatiotemporal voltage-calcium dynamics. The findings provide preliminary insights and potential strategies for enhancing arrhythmia detection and treatment.

Digital twinning of cardiac electrophysiology for congenital heart disease

In recent years, blending mechanistic knowledge with machine learning has had a major impact in digital healthcare. In this work, we introduce a computational pipeline to build certified digital replicas of cardiac electrophysiology in paediatric patients with congenital heart disease. We construct the patient-specific geometry by means of semi-automatic segmentation and meshing tools. We generate a dataset of electrophysiology simulations covering cell-to-organ level model parameters and using rigorous mathematical models based on differential equations. We previously proposed Branched Latent Neural Maps (BLNMs) as an accurate and efficient means to recapitulate complex physical processes in a neural network. Here, we employ BLNMs to encode the parametrized temporal dynamics of in silico 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs). BLNMs act as a geometry-specific surrogate model of cardiac function for fast and robust parameter estimation to match clinical ECGs in paediatric patients. Identifiability and trustworthiness of calibrated model parameters are assessed by sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification.

Effects of cardiac growth on electrical dyssynchrony in the single ventricle patient

Single ventricle patients, including those with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS), typically undergo three palliative heart surgeries culminating in the Fontan procedure. HLHS is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, and many patients develop arrhythmias, electrical dyssynchrony, and eventually ventricular failure. However, the correlation between ventricular enlargement and electrical dysfunction in HLHS physiology remains poorly understood. Here we characterize the relationship between growth and electrophysiology in HLHS using computational modeling. We integrate a personalized finite element model, a volumetric growth model, and a personalized electrophysiology model to perform controlled in silico experiments. We show that right ventricle enlargement negatively affects QRS duration and interventricular dyssynchrony. Conversely, left ventricle enlargement can partially compensate for this dyssynchrony. These findings have potential implications on our understanding of the origins of electrical dyssynchrony and, ultimately, the treatment of HLHS patients.

Using LDDMM and a kinematic cardiac growth model to quantify growth and remodelling in rat hearts under PAH

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rapidly progressive and fatal disease, with right ventricular failure being the primary cause of death in patients with PAH. This study aims to determine the mechanical stimuli that may initiate heart growth and remodelling (G&R). To achieve this, two bi-ventricular models were constructed: one for a control rat heart and another for a rat heart with PAH. The growth of the diseased heart was estimated by warping it to the control heart using an improved large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping (LDDMM) framework. Correlation analysis was then performed between mechanical cues (stress and strain) and growth tensors, which revealed that principal strains may serve as a triggering stimulus for myocardial growth and remodelling under PAH. The growth tensors, estimated from in vivo images, could explain 84.3% of the observed geometrical changes in the diseased heart with PAH by using a kinematic cardiac growth model. Our approach has the potential to quantify G&R using sparse in vivo images and to provide insights into the underlying mechanism of triggering right heart failure from a biomechanical perspective.

Machine learning modeling of lung mechanics: Assessing the variability and propagation of uncertainty in respiratory-system compliance and airway resistance

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Traditional assessment of patient response in mechanical ventilation relies on respiratory-system compliance and airway resistance. Clinical evidence has shown high variability in these parameters, highlighting the difficulty of predicting them before the start of ventilation therapy. This motivates the creation of computational models that can connect structural and tissue features with lung mechanics. In this work, we leverage machine learning (ML) techniques to construct predictive lung function models informed by non-linear finite element simulations, and use them to investigate the propagation of uncertainty in the lung mechanical response.

METHODS

We revisit a continuum poromechanical formulation of the lungs suitable for determining patient response. Based on this framework, we create high-fidelity finite element models of human lungs from medical images. We also develop a low-fidelity model based on an idealized sphere geometry. We then use these models to train and validate three ML architectures: single-fidelity and multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, and artificial neural networks. We use the best predictive ML model to further study the sensitivity of lung response to variations in tissue structural parameters and boundary conditions via sensitivity analysis and forward uncertainty quantification. Codes are available for download at https://github.com/comp-medicine-uc/ML-lung-mechanics-UQ RESULTS: The low-fidelity model delivers a lung response very close to that predicted by high-fidelity simulations and at a fraction of the computational time. Regarding the trained ML models, the multi-fidelity GP model consistently delivers better accuracy than the single-fidelity GP and neural network models in estimating respiratory-system compliance and resistance (R2∼0.99). In terms of computational efficiency, our ML model delivers a massive speed-up of ∼970,000× with respect to high-fidelity simulations. Regarding lung function, we observed an almost matched and non-linear behavior between specific structural parameters and chest wall stiffness with compliance. Also, we observed a strong modulation of airways resistance with tissue permeability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings unveil the relevance of specific lung tissue parameters and boundary conditions in the respiratory-system response. Furthermore, we highlight the advantages of adopting a multi-fidelity ML approach that combines data from different levels to yield accurate and efficient estimates of clinical mechanical markers. We envision that the methods presented here can open the way to the development of predictive ML models of the lung response that can inform clinical decisions.

An updated Lagrangian constrained mixture model of pathological cardiac growth and remodelling

Progressive left ventricular (LV) growth and remodelling (G&R) is often induced by volume and pressure overload, characterized by structural and functional adaptation through myocyte hypertrophy and extracellular matrix remodelling, which are dynamically regulated by biomechanical factors, inflammation, neurohormonal pathways, etc. When prolonged, it can eventually lead to irreversible heart failure. In this study, we have developed a new framework for modelling pathological cardiac G&R based on constrained mixture theory using an updated reference configuration, which is triggered by altered biomechanical factors to restore biomechanical homeostasis. Eccentric and concentric growth, and their combination have been explored in a patient-specific human LV model under volume and pressure overload. Eccentric growth is triggered by overstretching of myofibres due to volume overload, i.e. mitral regurgitation, whilst concentric growth is driven by excessive contractile stress due to pressure overload, i.e. aortic stenosis. Different biological constituent's adaptations under pathological conditions are integrated together, which are the ground matrix, myofibres and collagen network. We have shown that this constrained mixture-motivated G&R model can capture different phenotypes of maladaptive LV G&R, such as chamber dilation and wall thinning under volume overload, wall thickening under pressure overload, and more complex patterns under both pressure and volume overload. We have further demonstrated how collagen G&R would affect LV structural and functional adaption by providing mechanistic insight on anti-fibrotic interventions. This updated Lagrangian constrained mixture based myocardial G&R model has the potential to understand the turnover processes of myocytes and collagen due to altered local mechanical stimuli in heart diseases, and in providing mechanistic links between biomechanical factors and biological adaption at both the organ and cellular levels. Once calibrated with patient data, it can be used for assessing heart failure risk and designing optimal treatment therapies. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Computational modelling of cardiac G&R has shown high promise to provide insight into heart disease management when mechanistic understandings are quantified between biomechanical factors and underlying cellular adaptation processes. The kinematic growth theory has been dominantly used to phenomenologically describe the biological G&R process but neglecting underlying cellular mechanisms. We have developed a constrained mixture based G&R model with updated reference by taking into account different mechanobiological processes in the ground matrix, myocytes and collagen fibres. This G&R model can serve as a basis for developing more advanced myocardial G&R models further informed by patient data to assess heart failure risk, predict disease progression, select the optimal treatment by hypothesis testing, and eventually towards a truly precision cardiology using in-silico models.

A method for real-time mechanical characterisation of microcapsules

Characterising the mechanical properties of flowing microcapsules is important from both fundamental and applied points of view. In the present study, we develop a novel multilayer perceptron (MLP)-based machine learning (ML) approach, for real-time simultaneous predictions of the membrane mechanical law type, shear and area-dilatation moduli of microcapsules, from their camera-recorded steady profiles in tube flow. By MLP, we mean a neural network where many perceptrons are organised into layers. A perceptron is a basic element that conducts input-output mapping operation. We test the performance of the present approach using both simulation and experimental data. We find that with a reasonably high prediction accuracy, our method can reach an unprecedented low prediction latency of less than 1 millisecond on a personal computer. That is the overall computational time, without using parallel computing, from a single experimental image to multiple capsule mechanical parameters. It is faster than a recently proposed convolutional neural network-based approach by two orders of magnitude, for it only deals with the one-dimensional capsule boundary instead of the entire two-dimensional capsule image. Our new approach may serve as the foundation of a promising tool for real-time mechanical characterisation and online active sorting of deformable microcapsules and biological cells in microfluidic devices.

Validating MRI-Derived Myocardial Stiffness Estimates Using In Vitro Synthetic Heart Models

Impaired cardiac filling in response to increased passive myocardial stiffness contributes to the pathophysiology of heart failure. By leveraging cardiac MRI data and ventricular pressure measurements, we can estimate in vivo passive myocardial stiffness using personalized inverse finite element models. While it is well-known that this approach is subject to uncertainties, only few studies quantify the accuracy of these stiffness estimates. This lack of validation is, at least in part, due to the absence of ground truth in vivo passive myocardial stiffness values. Here, using 3D printing, we created soft, homogenous, isotropic, hyperelastic heart phantoms of varying geometry and stiffness and simulate diastolic filling by incorporating the phantoms into an MRI-compatible left ventricular inflation system. We estimate phantom stiffness from MRI and pressure data using inverse finite element analyses based on a Neo-Hookean model. We demonstrate that our identified softest and stiffest values of 215.7 and 512.3 kPa agree well with the ground truth of 226.2 and 526.4 kPa. Overall, our estimated stiffnesses revealed a good agreement with the ground truth ([Formula: see text] error) across all models. Our results suggest that MRI-driven computational constitutive modeling can accurately estimate synthetic heart material stiffnesses in the range of 200-500 kPa.

Can machine learning accelerate soft material parameter identification from complex mechanical test data?

Identifying the constitutive parameters of soft materials often requires heterogeneous mechanical test modes, such as simple shear. In turn, interpreting the resulting complex deformations necessitates the use of inverse strategies that iteratively call forward finite element solutions. In the past, we have found that the cost of repeatedly solving non-trivial boundary value problems can be prohibitively expensive. In this current work, we leverage our prior experimentally derived mechanical test data to explore an alternative approach. Specifically, we investigate whether a machine learning-based approach can accelerate the process of identifying material parameters based on our mechanical test data. Toward this end, we pursue two different strategies. In the first strategy, we replace the forward finite element simulations within an iterative optimization framework with a machine learning-based metamodel. Here, we explore both Gaussian process regression and neural network metamodels. In the second strategy, we forgo the iterative optimization framework and use a stand alone neural network to predict the entire material parameter set directly from experimental results. We first evaluate both approaches with simple shear experiments on blood clot, an isotropic, homogeneous material. Next, we evaluate both approaches against simple shear and uniaxial loading experiments on right ventricular myocardium, an anisotropic, heterogeneous material. We find that replacing the forward finite element simulations with metamodels significantly accelerates the parameter identification process with excellent results in the case of blood clot, and with satisfying results in the case of right ventricular myocardium. On the other hand, we find that replacing the entire optimization framework with a neural network yielded unsatisfying results, especially for right ventricular myocardium. Overall, the importance of our work stems from providing a baseline example showing how machine learning can accelerate the process of material parameter identification for soft materials from complex mechanical data, and from providing an open access experimental and simulation dataset that may serve as a benchmark dataset for others interested in applying machine learning techniques to soft tissue biomechanics.

Material property alterations for phenotypes of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: A numerical study of subject-specific porcine models

A substantial proportion of heart failure patients have a preserved left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (HFpEF). This condition carries a high burden of morbidity and mortality and has limited therapeutic options. left ventricular pressure overload leads to an increase in myocardial collagen content, causing left ventricular stiffening that contributes to the development of heart failure patients have a preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Although several heart failure patients have a preserved left ventricular ejection fraction models have been developed in recent years to aid the investigation of mechanical alterations, none has investigated different phenotypes of the disease and evaluated the alterations in material properties. In this study, two similar healthy swine were subjected to progressive and prolonged pressure overload to induce diastolic heart failure characteristics, providing a preclinical model of heart failure patients have a preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (cMRI) scans and intracardiac pressures were recorded before and after induction. In both healthy and disease states, a corresponding finite element (FE) cardiac model was developed via mesh morphing of the Living Heart Porcine model. The material properties were derived by calibrating to its passive and active behavior. The change in the passive behavior was predominantly isotropic when comparing the geometries before and after induction. Myocardial thickening allowed for a steady transition in the passive properties while maintaining tissue incompressibility. This study highlights the importance of hypertrophy as an initial compensatory response and might also pave the way for assessing disease severity.

How viscous is the beating heart?: Insights from a computational study

Understanding tissue rheology is critical to accurately model the human heart. While the elastic properties of cardiac tissue have been extensively studied, its viscous properties remain an issue of ongoing debate. Here we adopt a viscoelastic version of the classical Holzapfel Ogden model to study the viscous timescales of human cardiac tissue. We perform a series of simulations and explore stress-relaxation curves, pressure-volume loops, strain profiles, and ventricular wall strains for varying viscosity parameters. We show that the time window for model calibration strongly influences the parameter identification. Using a four-chamber human heart model, we observe that, during the physiologically relevant time scales of the cardiac cycle, viscous relaxation has a negligible effect on the overall behavior of the heart. While viscosity could have important consequences in pathological conditions with compromised contraction or relaxation properties, we conclude that, for simulations within the physiological range of a human heart beat, we can reasonably approximate the human heart as hyperelastic.

Enhancing Mechanical Metamodels with a Generative Model-Based Augmented Training Dataset

Modeling biological soft tissue is complex in part due to material heterogeneity. Microstructural patterns, which play a major role in defining the mechanical behavior of these tissues, are both challenging to characterize, and difficult to simulate. Recently, machine learning (ML)-based methods to predict the mechanical behavior of heterogeneous materials have made it possible to more thoroughly explore the massive input parameter space associated with heterogeneous blocks of material. Specifically, we can train ML models to closely approximate computationally expensive heterogeneous material simulations where the ML model is trained on datasets of simulations with relevant spatial heterogeneity. However, when it comes to applying these techniques to tissue, there is a major limitation: the number of useful examples available to characterize the input domain under study is often limited. In this work, we investigate the efficacy of both ML-based generative models and procedural methods as tools for augmenting limited input pattern datasets. We find that a Style-based Generative Adversarial Network with an adaptive discriminator augmentation mechanism is able to successfully leverage just 1,000 example patterns to create authentic generated patterns. And, we find that diverse generated patterns with adequate resemblance to real patterns can be used as inputs to finite element simulations to meaningfully augment the training dataset. To enable this methodological contribution, we have created an open access Finite Element Analysis simulation dataset based on Cahn-Hilliard patterns. We anticipate that future researchers will be able to leverage this dataset and build on the work presented here.

Sensitivity analysis and inverse uncertainty quantification for the left ventricular passive mechanics

Personalized computational cardiac models are considered to be a unique and powerful tool in modern cardiology, integrating the knowledge of physiology, pathology and fundamental laws of mechanics in one framework. They have the potential to improve risk prediction in cardiac patients and assist in the development of new treatments. However, in order to use these models for clinical decision support, it is important that both the impact of model parameter perturbations on the predicted quantities of interest as well as the uncertainty of parameter estimation are properly quantified, where the first task is a priori in nature (meaning independent of any specific clinical data), while the second task is carried out a posteriori (meaning after specific clinical data have been obtained). The present study addresses these challenges for a widely used constitutive law of passive myocardium (the Holzapfel-Ogden model), using global sensitivity analysis (SA) to address the first challenge, and inverse-uncertainty quantification (I-UQ) for the second challenge. The SA is carried out on a range of different input parameters to a left ventricle (LV) model, making use of computationally efficient Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models in place of the numerical forward simulator. The results of the SA are then used to inform a low-order reparametrization of the constitutive law for passive myocardium under consideration. The quality of this parameterization in the context of an inverse problem having observed noisy experimental data is then quantified with an I-UQ study, which again makes use of GP surrogate models. The I-UQ is carried out in a Bayesian manner using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, which allows for full uncertainty quantification of the material parameter estimates. Our study reveals insights into the relation between SA and I-UQ, elucidates the dependence of parameter sensitivity and estimation uncertainty on external factors, like LV cavity pressure, and sheds new light on cardio-mechanic model formulation, with particular focus on the Holzapfel-Ogden myocardial model.

An accurate, robust, and efficient finite element framework with applications to anisotropic, nearly and fully incompressible elasticity

Fiber-reinforced soft biological tissues are typically modeled as hyperelastic, anisotropic, and nearly incompressible materials. To enforce incompressibility a multiplicative split of the deformation gradient into a volumetric and an isochoric part is a very common approach. However, the finite element analysis of such problems often suffers from severe volumetric locking effects and numerical instabilities. In this paper, we present novel methods to overcome volumetric locking phenomena for using stabilized P1-P1 elements. We introduce different stabilization techniques and demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency of the chosen methods. In two benchmark problems from the literature as well as an advanced application to cardiac electromechanics, we compare the approach to standard linear elements and show the accuracy and versatility of the methods to simulate anisotropic, nearly and fully incompressible materials. We demonstrate the potential of this numerical framework to accelerate accurate simulations of biological tissues to the extent of enabling patient-specific parameterization studies, where numerous forward simulations are required.

Bayesian optimisation for efficient parameter inference in a cardiac mechanics model of the left ventricle

We consider parameter inference in cardio-mechanic models of the left ventricle, in particular the one based on the Holtzapfel-Ogden (HO) constitutive law, using clinical in vivo data. The equations underlying these models do not admit closed form solutions and hence need to be solved numerically. These numerical procedures are computationally expensive making computational run times associated with numerical optimisation or sampling excessive for the uptake of the models in the clinical practice. To address this issue, we adopt the framework of Bayesian optimisation (BO), which is an efficient statistical technique of global optimisation. BO seeks the optimum of an unknown black-box function by sequentially training a statistical surrogate-model and using it to select the next query point by leveraging the associated exploration-exploitation trade-off. To guarantee that the estimates based on the in vivo data are realistic also for high-pressures, unobservable in vivo, we include a penalty term based on a previously published empirical law developed using ex vivo data. Two case studies based on real data demonstrate that the proposed BO procedure outperforms the state-of-the-art inference algorithm for the HO constitutive law.

Sex Matters: A Comprehensive Comparison of Female and Male Hearts

Cardiovascular disease in women remains under-diagnosed and under-treated. Recent studies suggest that this is caused, at least in part, by the lack of sex-specific diagnostic criteria. While it is widely recognized that the female heart is smaller than the male heart, it has long been ignored that it also has a different microstructural architecture. This has severe implications on a multitude of cardiac parameters. Here, we systematically review and compare geometric, functional, and structural parameters of female and male hearts, both in the healthy population and in athletes. Our study finds that, compared to the male heart, the female heart has a larger ejection fraction and beats at a faster rate but generates a smaller cardiac output. It has a lower blood pressure but produces universally larger contractile strains. Critically, allometric scaling, e.g., by lean body mass, reduces but does not completely eliminate the sex differences between female and male hearts. Our results suggest that the sex differences in cardiac form and function are too complex to be ignored: the female heart is not just a small version of the male heart. When using similar diagnostic criteria for female and male hearts, cardiac disease in women is frequently overlooked by routine exams, and it is diagnosed later and with more severe symptoms than in men. Clearly, there is an urgent need to better understand the female heart and design sex-specific diagnostic criteria that will allow us to diagnose cardiac disease in women equally as early, robustly, and reliably as in men.

Systematic Review Registration

https://livingmatter.stanford.edu/.

The effects of viscoelasticity on residual strain in aortic soft tissues

Residual stress is thought to play a critical role in modulating stress distributions in soft biological tissues and in maintaining the mechanobiological stress environment of cells. Residual stresses in arteries and other tissues are classically assessed through opening angle experiments, which demonstrate the continuous release of residual stresses over hours. These results are then assessed through nonlinear biomechanical models to provide estimates of the residual stresses in the intact state. Although well studied, these analyses typically focus on hyperelastic material models despite significant evidence of viscoelastic phenomena over both short and long timescales. In this work, we extended the state-of-the-art structural tensor model for arterial tissues from Holzapfel and Ogden for fractional viscoelasticity. Models were tuned to capture consistent levels of hysteresis observed in biaxial experiments, while also minimizing the fractional viscoelastic weighting and opening angles to correctly capture opening angle dynamics. Results suggest that a substantial portion of the human abdominal aorta is viscoelastic, but exhibits a low fractional order (i.e. more elastically). Additionally, a significantly larger opening angle in the fully unloaded state is necessary to produce comparable hysteresis in biaxial testing. As a consequence, conventional estimates of residual stress using hyperelastic approaches over-estimate their viscoelastic counterparts by a factor of 2. Thus, a viscoelastic approach, such as the one illustrated in this study, in combination with an additional source of rate-controlled viscoelastic data is necessary to accurately analyze the residual stress distribution in soft biological tissues. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Residual stress plays a crucial role in achieving a homeostatic stress environment in soft biological tissues. However, the analysis of residual stress typically focuses on hyperelastic material models despite evidence of viscoelastic behavior. This work is the first attempt at analyzing the effects of viscoelasticity on residual stress. The application of viscoelasticity was crucial for producing realistic opening dynamics in arteries. The overall residual stresses were estimated to be 50% less than those from using hyperelastic material models, while the opening angles were projected to be 25% more than those measured after 16 hours, suggesting underestimated residual strain. This study highlights the importance viscoelasticity in the analysis of residual stress even in weakly dissipative materials like the human aorta.

Growth and remodeling in the pulmonary autograft: Computational evaluation using kinematic growth models and constrained mixture theory

Computational investigations of how soft tissues grow and remodel are gaining more and more interest and several growth and remodeling theories have been developed. Roughly, two main groups of theories for soft tissues can be distinguished: kinematic-based growth theory and theories based on constrained mixture theory. Our goal was to apply these two theories on the same experimental data. Within the experiment, a pulmonary artery was exposed to systemic conditions. The change in diameter was followed-up over time. A mechanical and microstructural analysis of native pulmonary artery and pulmonary autograft was conducted. Whereas the kinematic-based growth theory is able to accurately capture the growth of the tissue, it does not account for the mechanobiological processes causing this growth. The constrained mixture theory takes into account the mechanobiological processes including removal, deposition and adaptation of all structural constituents, allowing us to simulate a changing microstructure and mechanical behavior.

Multiscale simulations of left ventricular growth and remodeling

Cardiomyocytes can adapt their size, shape, and orientation in response to altered biomechanical or biochemical stimuli. The process by which the heart undergoes structural changes-affecting both geometry and material properties-in response to altered ventricular loading, altered hormonal levels, or mutant sarcomeric proteins is broadly known as cardiac growth and remodeling (G&R). Although it is likely that cardiac G&R initially occurs as an adaptive response of the heart to the underlying stimuli, prolonged pathological changes can lead to increased risk of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and sudden death. During the past few decades, computational models have been extensively used to investigate the mechanisms of cardiac G&R, as a complement to experimental measurements. These models have provided an opportunity to quantitatively study the relationships between the underlying stimuli (primarily mechanical) and the adverse outcomes of cardiac G&R, i.e., alterations in ventricular size and function. State-of-the-art computational models have shown promise in predicting the progression of cardiac G&R. However, there are still limitations that need to be addressed in future works to advance the field. In this review, we first outline the current state of computational models of cardiac growth and myofiber remodeling. Then, we discuss the potential limitations of current models of cardiac G&R that need to be addressed before they can be utilized in clinical care. Finally, we briefly discuss the next feasible steps and future directions that could advance the field of cardiac G&R.

Effects of B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 on COVID-19 Dynamics: A Campus Reopening Study

The timing and sequence of safe campus reopening has remained the most controversial topic in higher education since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of March 2020, almost all colleges and universities in the United States had transitioned to an all online education and many institutions have not yet fully reopened to date. For a residential campus like Stanford University, the major challenge of reopening is to estimate the number of incoming infectious students at the first day of class. Here we learn the number of incoming infectious students using Bayesian inference and perform a series of retrospective and projective simulations to quantify the risk of campus reopening. We create a physics-based probabilistic model to infer the local reproduction dynamics for each state and adopt a network SEIR model to simulate the return of all undergraduates, broken down by their year of enrollment and state of origin. From these returning student populations, we predict the outbreak dynamics throughout the spring, summer, fall, and winter quarters using the inferred reproduction dynamics of Santa Clara County. We compare three different scenarios: the true outbreak dynamics under the wild-type SARS-CoV-2, and the hypothetical outbreak dynamics under the new COVID-19 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 with 56% and 50% increased transmissibility. Our study reveals that even small changes in transmissibility can have an enormous impact on the overall case numbers. With no additional countermeasures, during the most affected quarter, the fall of 2020, there would have been 203 cases under baseline reproduction, compared to 4727 and 4256 cases for the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants. Our results suggest that population mixing presents an increased risk for local outbreaks, especially with new and more infectious variants emerging across the globe. Tight outbreak control through mandatory quarantine and test-trace-isolate strategies will be critical in successfully managing these local outbreak dynamics.

Sex Differences in Drug-Induced Arrhythmogenesis

The electrical activity in the heart varies significantly between men and women and results in a sex-specific response to drugs. Recent evidence suggests that women are more than twice as likely as men to develop drug-induced arrhythmia with potentially fatal consequences. Yet, the sex-specific differences in drug-induced arrhythmogenesis remain poorly understood. Here we integrate multiscale modeling and machine learning to gain mechanistic insight into the sex-specific origin of drug-induced cardiac arrhythmia at differing drug concentrations. To quantify critical drug concentrations in male and female hearts, we identify the most important ion channels that trigger male and female arrhythmogenesis, and create and train a sex-specific multi-fidelity arrhythmogenic risk classifier. Our study reveals that sex differences in ion channel activity, tissue conductivity, and heart dimensions trigger longer QT-intervals in women than in men. We quantify the critical drug concentration for dofetilide, a high risk drug, to be seven times lower for women than for men. Our results emphasize the importance of including sex as an independent biological variable in risk assessment during drug development. Acknowledging and understanding sex differences in drug safety evaluation is critical when developing novel therapeutic treatments on a personalized basis. The general trends of this study have significant implications on the development of safe and efficacious new drugs and the prescription of existing drugs in combination with other drugs.

Bayesian Physics-Based Modeling of Tau Propagation in Alzheimer's Disease

Amyloid-β and hyperphosphorylated tau protein are known drivers of neuropathology in Alzheimer's disease. Tau in particular spreads in the brains of patients following a spatiotemporal pattern that is highly sterotypical and correlated with subsequent neurodegeneration. Novel medical imaging techniques can now visualize the distribution of tau in the brain in vivo, allowing for new insights to the dynamics of this biomarker. Here we personalize a network diffusion model with global spreading and local production terms to longitudinal tau positron emission tomography data of 76 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We use Bayesian inference with a hierarchical prior structure to infer means and credible intervals for our model parameters on group and subject levels. Our results show that the group average protein production rate for amyloid positive subjects is significantly higher with 0.019±0.27/yr, than that for amyloid negative subjects with -0.143±0.21/yr (p = 0.0075). These results support the hypothesis that amyloid pathology drives tau pathology. The calibrated model could serve as a valuable clinical tool to identify optimal time points for follow-up scans and predict the timeline of disease progression.

Improving reconstructive surgery design using Gaussian process surrogates to capture material behavior uncertainty

To produce functional, aesthetically natural results, reconstructive surgeries must be planned to minimize stress as excessive loads near wounds have been shown to produce pathological scarring and other complications (Gurtner et al., 2011). Presently, stress cannot easily be measured in the operating room. Consequently, surgeons rely on intuition and experience (Paul et al., 2016; Buchanan et al., 2016). Predictive computational tools are ideal candidates for surgery planning. Finite element (FE) simulations have shown promise in predicting stress fields on large skin patches and in complex cases, helping to identify potential regions of complication. Unfortunately, these simulations are computationally expensive and deterministic (Lee et al., 2018a). However, running a few, well selected FE simulations allows us to create Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models of local cutaneous flaps that are computationally efficient and able to predict stress and strain for arbitrary material parameters. Here, we create GP surrogates for the advancement, rotation, and transposition flaps. We then use the predictive capability of these surrogates to perform a global sensitivity analysis, ultimately showing that fiber direction has the most significant impact on strain field variations. We then perform an optimization to determine the optimal fiber direction for each flap for three different objectives driven by clinical guidelines (Leedy et al., 2005; Rohrer and Bhatia, 2005). While material properties are not controlled by the surgeon and are actually a source of uncertainty, the surgeon can in fact control the orientation of the flap with respect to the skin's relaxed tension lines, which are associated with the underlying fiber orientation (Borges, 1984). Therefore, fiber direction is the only material parameter that can be optimized clinically. The optimization task relies on the efficiency of the GP surrogates to calculate the expected cost of different strategies when the uncertainty of other material parameters is included. We propose optimal flap orientations for the three cost functions and that can help in reducing stress resulting from the surgery and ultimately reduce complications associated with excessive mechanical loading near wounds.

Multiscale modeling meets machine learning: What can we learn?

Machine learning is increasingly recognized as a promising technology in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences. There can be no argument that this technique is incredibly successful in image recognition with immediate applications in diagnostics including electrophysiology, radiology, or pathology, where we have access to massive amounts of annotated data. However, machine learning often performs poorly in prognosis, especially when dealing with sparse data. This is a field where classical physics-based simulation seems to remain irreplaceable. In this review, we identify areas in the biomedical sciences where machine learning and multiscale modeling can mutually benefit from one another: Machine learning can integrate physics-based knowledge in the form of governing equations, boundary conditions, or constraints to manage ill-posted problems and robustly handle sparse and noisy data; multiscale modeling can integrate machine learning to create surrogate models, identify system dynamics and parameters, analyze sensitivities, and quantify uncertainty to bridge the scales and understand the emergence of function. With a view towards applications in the life sciences, we discuss the state of the art of combining machine learning and multiscale modeling, identify applications and opportunities, raise open questions, and address potential challenges and limitations. We anticipate that it will stimulate discussion within the community of computational mechanics and reach out to other disciplines including mathematics, statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, systems biology, and precision medicine to join forces towards creating robust and efficient models for biological systems.

Establishing the Biofidelity of a Multiphysics Finite Element Model of the Human Heart

PURPOSE

Accelerating development of new therapeutic cardiac devices remains a clinical and technical priority. High-performance computing and the emergence of functional and complex in silico models of human anatomy can be an engine to accelerate the commercialization of innovative, safe, and effective devices.

METHODS

An existing three-dimensional, nonlinear model of a human heart with flow boundary conditions was evaluated. Its muscular tissues were exercised using electrophysiological boundary conditions, creating a dynamic, electro-mechanical simulation of the kinetics of the human heart. Anatomic metrics were selected to characterize the functional biofidelity of the model based on their significance to the design of cardiac devices. The model output was queried through the cardiac cycle and compared to in vivo literature values.

RESULTS

For the kinematics of mitral and aortic valves and curvature of coronary vessels, the model's performance was at or above the 95th percentile range of the in vivo data from large patient cohorts. One exception was the kinematics of the tricuspid valve. The model's mechanical use environment would subject devices to generally conservative use conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

This conservative simulated use environment for heart-based medical devices, and its judicious application in the evaluation of medical devices is justified, but careful interpretation of the results is encouraged.

Precision medicine in human heart modeling : Perspectives, challenges, and opportunities

Precision medicine is a new frontier in healthcare that uses scientific methods to customize medical treatment to the individual genes, anatomy, physiology, and lifestyle of each person. In cardiovascular health, precision medicine has emerged as a promising paradigm to enable cost-effective solutions that improve quality of life and reduce mortality rates. However, the exact role in precision medicine for human heart modeling has not yet been fully explored. Here, we discuss the challenges and opportunities for personalized human heart simulations, from diagnosis to device design, treatment planning, and prognosis. With a view toward personalization, we map out the history of anatomic, physical, and constitutive human heart models throughout the past three decades. We illustrate recent human heart modeling in electrophysiology, cardiac mechanics, and fluid dynamics and highlight clinically relevant applications of these models for drug development, pacing lead failure, heart failure, ventricular assist devices, edge-to-edge repair, and annuloplasty. With a view toward translational medicine, we provide a clinical perspective on virtual imaging trials and a regulatory perspective on medical device innovation. We show that precision medicine in human heart modeling does not necessarily require a fully personalized, high-resolution whole heart model with an entire personalized medical history. Instead, we advocate for creating personalized models out of population-based libraries with geometric, biological, physical, and clinical information by morphing between clinical data and medical histories from cohorts of patients using machine learning. We anticipate that this perspective will shape the path toward introducing human heart simulations into precision medicine with the ultimate goals to facilitate clinical decision making, guide treatment planning, and accelerate device design.

Markov chain Monte Carlo with Gaussian processes for fast parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in a 1D fluid-dynamics model of the pulmonary circulation

The past few decades have witnessed an explosive synergy between physics and the life sciences. In particular, physical modelling in medicine and physiology is a topical research area. The present work focuses on parameter inference and uncertainty quantification in a 1D fluid-dynamics model for quantitative physiology: the pulmonary blood circulation. The practical challenge is the estimation of the patient-specific biophysical model parameters, which cannot be measured directly. In principle this can be achieved based on a comparison between measured and predicted data. However, predicting data requires solving a system of partial differential equations (PDEs), which usually have no closed-form solution, and repeated numerical integrations as part of an adaptive estimation procedure are computationally expensive. In the present article, we demonstrate how fast parameter estimation combined with sound uncertainty quantification can be achieved by a combination of statistical emulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We compare a range of state-of-the-art MCMC algorithms and emulation strategies, and assess their performance in terms of their accuracy and computational efficiency. The long-term goal is to develop a method for reliable disease prognostication in real time, and our work is an important step towards an automatic clinical decision support system.

Neurohumoral, cardiac and inflammatory markers in the evaluation of heart failure severity and progression

Heart failure is common in adult population, accounting for substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. The main risk factors for heart failure are coronary artery disease, hypertension, obesity, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary diseases, family history of cardiovascular diseases, cardiotoxic therapy. The main factor associated with poor outcome of these patients is constant progression of heart failure. In the current review we present evidence on the role of established and candidate neurohumoral biomarkers for heart failure progression management and diagnostics. A growing number of biomarkers have been proposed as potentially useful in heart failure patients, but not one of them still resembles the characteristics of the “ideal biomarker.” A single marker will hardly perform well for screening, diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic management purposes. Moreover, the pathophysiological and clinical significance of biomarkers may depend on the presentation, stage, and severity of the disease. The authors cover main classification of heart failure phenotypes, based on the measurement of left ventricular ejection fraction, including heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and the recently proposed category heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction. One could envisage specific sets of biomarker with different performances in heart failure progression with different left ventricular ejection fraction especially as concerns prediction of the future course of the disease and of left ventricular adverse/reverse remodeling. This article is intended to provide an overview of basic and additional mechanisms of heart failure progression will contribute to a more comprehensive knowledge of the disease pathogenesis.

Computational models of cardiac hypertrophy

Cardiac hypertrophy, defined as an increase in mass of the heart, is a complex process driven by simultaneous changes in hemodynamics, mechanical stimuli, and hormonal inputs. It occurs not only during pre- and post-natal development but also in adults in response to exercise, pregnancy, and a range of cardiovascular diseases. One of the most exciting recent developments in the field of cardiac biomechanics is the advent of computational models that are able to accurately predict patterns of heart growth in many of these settings, particularly in cases where changes in mechanical loading of the heart play an import role. These emerging models may soon be capable of making patient-specific growth predictions that can be used to guide clinical interventions. Here, we review the history and current state of cardiac growth models and highlight three main limitations of current approaches with regard to future clinical application: their inability to predict the regression of heart growth after removal of a mechanical overload, inability to account for evolving hemodynamics, and inability to incorporate known growth effects of drugs and hormones on heart growth. Next, we outline growth mechanics approaches used in other fields of biomechanics and highlight some potential lessons for cardiac growth modeling. Finally, we propose a multiscale modeling approach for future studies that blends tissue-level growth models with cell-level signaling models to incorporate the effects of hormones in the context of pregnancy-induced heart growth.

Exploring the potential of transfer learning for metamodels of heterogeneous material deformation

From the nano-scale to the macro-scale, biological tissue is spatially heterogeneous. Even when tissue behavior is well understood, the exact subject specific spatial distribution of material properties is often unknown. And, when developing computational models of biological tissue, it is usually prohibitively computationally expensive to simulate every plausible spatial distribution of material properties for each problem of interest. Therefore, one of the major challenges in developing accurate computational models of biological tissue is capturing the potential effects of this spatial heterogeneity. Recently, machine learning based metamodels have gained popularity as a computationally tractable way to overcome this problem because they can make predictions based on a limited number of direct simulation runs. These metamodels are promising, but they often still require a high number of direct simulations to achieve an acceptable performance. Here we show that transfer learning, a strategy where knowledge gained while solving one problem is transferred to solving a different but related problem, can help overcome this limitation. Critically, transfer learning can be used to leverage both low-fidelity simulation data and simulation data that is the outcome of solving a different but related mechanical problem. In this paper, we extend Mechanical MNIST, our open source benchmark dataset of heterogeneous material undergoing large deformation, to include a selection of low-fidelity simulation results that require ≈ 2 - 4 orders of magnitude less CPU time to run. Then, we show that transferring the knowledge stored in metamodels trained on these low-fidelity simulation results can vastly improve the performance of metamodels used to predict the results of high-fidelity simulations. In the most dramatic examples, metamodels trained on 100 high fidelity simulations but pre-trained on 60,000 low-fidelity simulations achieves nearly the same test error as metamodels trained on 60,000 high-fidelity simulations (1 - 1.5% mean absolute percent error). In addition, we show that transfer learning is an effective method for leveraging data from different load cases, and for leveraging low-fidelity two-dimensional simulations to predict the outcomes of high-fidelity three-dimensional simulations. Looking forward, we anticipate that transfer learning will enable us to better capture the influence of tissue spatial heterogeneity on the mechanical behavior of biological materials across multiple different domains.

On the Role of Ionic Modeling on the Signature of Cardiac Arrhythmias for Healthy and Diseased Hearts

Computational cardiology is rapidly becoming the gold standard for innovative medical treatments and device development. Despite a worldwide effort in mathematical and computational modeling research, the complexity and intrinsic multiscale nature of the heart still limit our predictability power raising the question of the optimal modeling choice for large-scale whole-heart numerical investigations. We propose an extended numerical analysis among two different electrophysiological modeling approaches: a simplified phenomenological one and a detailed biophysical one. To achieve this, we considered three-dimensional healthy and infarcted swine heart geometries. Heterogeneous electrophysiological properties, fine-tuned DT-MRI -based anisotropy features, and non-conductive ischemic regions were included in a custom-built finite element code. We provide a quantitative comparison of the electrical behaviors during steady pacing and sustained ventricular fibrillation for healthy and diseased cases analyzing cardiac arrhythmias dynamics. Action potential duration (APD) restitution distributions, vortex filament counting, and pseudo-electrocardiography (ECG) signals were numerically quantified, introducing a novel statistical description of restitution patterns and ventricular fibrillation sustainability. Computational cost and scalability associated with the two modeling choices suggests that ventricular fibrillation signatures are mainly controlled by anatomy and structural parameters, rather than by regional restitution properties. Finally, we discuss limitations and translational perspectives of the different modeling approaches in view of large-scale whole-heart in silico studies.

Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19

Understanding the outbreak dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has important implications for successful containment and mitigation strategies. Recent studies suggest that the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a proxy for the number of asymptomatic cases, could be an order of magnitude larger than expected from the number of reported symptomatic cases. Knowing the precise prevalence and contagiousness of asymptomatic transmission is critical to estimate the overall dimension and pandemic potential of COVID-19. However, at this stage, the effect of the asymptomatic population, its size, and its outbreak dynamics remain largely unknown. Here we use reported symptomatic case data in conjunction with antibody seroprevalence studies, a mathematical epidemiology model, and a Bayesian framework to infer the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. Our model computes, in real time, the time-varying contact rate of the outbreak, and projects the temporal evolution and credible intervals of the effective reproduction number and the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and recovered populations. Our study quantifies the sensitivity of the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 to three parameters: the effective reproduction number, the ratio between the symptomatic and asymptomatic populations, and the infectious periods of both groups. For nine distinct locations, our model estimates the fraction of the population that has been infected and recovered by Jun 15, 2020 to 24.15% (95% CI: 20.48%-28.14%) for Heinsberg (NRW, Germany), 2.40% (95% CI: 2.09%-2.76%) for Ada County (ID, USA), 46.19% (95% CI: 45.81%-46.60%) for New York City (NY, USA), 11.26% (95% CI: 7.21%-16.03%) for Santa Clara County (CA, USA), 3.09% (95% CI: 2.27%-4.03%) for Denmark, 12.35% (95% CI: 10.03%-15.18%) for Geneva Canton (Switzerland), 5.24% (95% CI: 4.84%-5.70%) for the Netherlands, 1.53% (95% CI: 0.76%-2.62%) for Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), and 5.32% (95% CI: 4.77%-5.93%) for Belgium. Our method traces the initial outbreak date in Santa Clara County back to January 20, 2020 (95% CI: December 29, 2019-February 13, 2020). Our results could significantly change our understanding and management of the COVID-19 pandemic: A large asymptomatic population will make isolation, containment, and tracing of individual cases challenging. Instead, managing community transmission through increasing population awareness, promoting physical distancing, and encouraging behavioral changes could become more relevant.

Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19

Understanding the outbreak dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has important implications for successful containment and mitigation strategies. Recent studies suggest that the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a proxy for the number of asymptomatic cases, could be an order of magnitude larger than expected from the number of reported symptomatic cases. Knowing the precise prevalence and contagiousness of asymptomatic transmission is critical to estimate the overall dimension and pandemic potential of COVID-19. However, at this stage, the effect of the asymptomatic population, its size, and its outbreak dynamics remain largely unknown. Here we use reported symptomatic case data in conjunction with antibody seroprevalence studies, a mathematical epidemiology model, and a Bayesian framework to infer the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. Our model computes, in real time, the time-varying contact rate of the outbreak, and projects the temporal evolution and credible intervals of the effective reproduction number and the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and recovered populations. Our study quantifies the sensitivity of the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 to three parameters: the effective reproduction number, the ratio between the symptomatic and asymptomatic populations, and the infectious periods of both groups For nine distinct locations, our model estimates the fraction of the population that has been infected and recovered by Jun 15, 2020 to 24.15% (95% CI: 20.48%-28.14%) for Heinsberg (NRW, Germany), 2.40% (95% CI: 2.09%-2.76%) for Ada County (ID, USA), 46.19% (95% CI: 45.81%-46.60%) for New York City (NY, USA), 11.26% (95% CI: 7.21%-16.03%) for Santa Clara County (CA, USA), 3.09% (95% CI: 2.27%-4.03%) for Denmark, 12.35% (95% CI: 10.03%-15.18%) for Geneva Canton (Switzerland), 5.24% (95% CI: 4.84%-5.70%) for the Netherlands, 1.53% (95% CI: 0.76%-2.62%) for Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), and 5.32% (95% CI: 4.77%-5.93%) for Belgium. Our method traces the initial outbreak date in Santa Clara County back to January 20, 2020 (95% CI: December 29, 2019 - February 13, 2020). Our results could significantly change our understanding and management of the COVID-19 pandemic: A large asymptomatic population will make isolation, containment, and tracing of individual cases challenging. Instead, managing community transmission through increasing population awareness, promoting physical distancing, and encouraging behavioral changes could become more relevant.

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions

Throughout the past six months, no number has dominated the public media more persistently than the reproduction number of COVID-19. This powerful but simple concept is widely used by the public media, scientists, and political decision makers to explain and justify political strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we explore the effectiveness of political interventions using the reproduction number of COVID-19 across Europe. We propose a dynamic SEIR epidemiology model with a time-varying reproduction number, which we identify using machine learning. During the early outbreak, the basic reproduction number was 4.22 ± 1.69, with maximum values of 6.33 and 5.88 in Germany and the Netherlands. By May 10, 2020, it dropped to 0.67 ± 0.18, with minimum values of 0.37 and 0.28 in Hungary and Slovakia. We found a strong correlation between passenger air travel, driving, walking, and transit mobility and the effective reproduction number with a time delay of 17.24 ± 2.00 days. Our new dynamic SEIR model provides the flexibility to simulate various outbreak control and exit strategies to inform political decision making and identify safe solutions in the benefit of global health.

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions

Throughout the past six months, no number has dominated the public media more persistently than the reproduction number of COVID-19. This powerful but simple concept is widely used by the public media, scientists, and political decision makers to explain and justify political strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we explore the effectiveness of political interventions using the reproduction number of COVID-19 across Europe. We propose a dynamic SEIR epidemiology model with a time-varying reproduction number, which we identify using machine learning. During the early outbreak, the basic reproduction number was 4.22+/-1.69, with maximum values of 6.33 and 5.88 in Germany and the Netherlands. By May 10, 2020, it dropped to 0.67+/-0.18, with minimum values of 0.37 and 0.28 in Hungary and Slovakia. We found a strong correlation between passenger air travel, driving, walking, and transit mobility and the effective reproduction number with a time delay of 17.24+/-2.00 days. Our new dynamic SEIR model provides the flexibility to simulate various outbreak control and exit strategies to inform political decision making and identify safe solutions in the benefit of global health.

Computational modeling of cardiac growth and remodeling in pressure overloaded hearts-Linking microstructure to organ phenotype

Cardiac growth and remodeling (G&R) refers to structural changes in myocardial tissue in response to chronic alterations in loading conditions. One such condition is pressure overload where elevated wall stresses stimulate the growth in cardiomyocyte thickness, associated with a phenotype of concentric hypertrophy at the organ scale, and promote fibrosis. The initial hypertrophic response can be considered adaptive and beneficial by favoring myocyte survival, but over time if pressure overload conditions persist, maladaptive mechanisms favoring cell death and fibrosis start to dominate, ultimately mediating the transition towards an overt heart failure phenotype. The underlying mechanisms linking biological factors at the myocyte level to biomechanical factors at the systemic and organ level remain poorly understood. Computational models of G&R show high promise as a unique framework for providing a quantitative link between myocardial stresses and strains at the organ scale to biological regulatory processes at the cellular level which govern the hypertrophic response. However, microstructurally motivated, rigorously validated computational models of G&R are still in their infancy. This article provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of computational models to study cardiac G&R. The microstructure and mechanosensing/mechanotransduction within cells of the myocardium is discussed and quantitative data from previous experimental and clinical studies is summarized. We conclude with a discussion of major challenges and possible directions of future research that can advance the current state of cardiac G&R computational modeling. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: The mechanistic links between organ-scale biomechanics and biological factors at the cellular size scale remain poorly understood as these are largely elusive to investigations using experimental methodology alone. Computational G&R models show high promise to establish quantitative links which allow more mechanistic insight into adaptation mechanisms and may be used as a tool for stratifying the state and predict the progression of disease in the clinic. This review provides a comprehensive overview of research in this domain including a summary of experimental data. Thus, this study may serve as a basis for the further development of more advanced G&R models which are suitable for making clinical predictions on disease progression or for testing hypotheses on pathogenic mechanisms using in-silico models.

Integrating machine learning and multiscale modeling-perspectives, challenges, and opportunities in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences

Fueled by breakthrough technology developments, the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences are now collecting more data than ever before. There is a critical need for time- and cost-efficient strategies to analyze and interpret these data to advance human health. The recent rise of machine learning as a powerful technique to integrate multimodality, multifidelity data, and reveal correlations between intertwined phenomena presents a special opportunity in this regard. However, machine learning alone ignores the fundamental laws of physics and can result in ill-posed problems or non-physical solutions. Multiscale modeling is a successful strategy to integrate multiscale, multiphysics data and uncover mechanisms that explain the emergence of function. However, multiscale modeling alone often fails to efficiently combine large datasets from different sources and different levels of resolution. Here we demonstrate that machine learning and multiscale modeling can naturally complement each other to create robust predictive models that integrate the underlying physics to manage ill-posed problems and explore massive design spaces. We review the current literature, highlight applications and opportunities, address open questions, and discuss potential challenges and limitations in four overarching topical areas: ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations, data-driven approaches, and theory-driven approaches. Towards these goals, we leverage expertise in applied mathematics, computer science, computational biology, biophysics, biomechanics, engineering mechanics, experimentation, and medicine. Our multidisciplinary perspective suggests that integrating machine learning and multiscale modeling can provide new insights into disease mechanisms, help identify new targets and treatment strategies, and inform decision making for the benefit of human health.