1
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Two-stage algorithms for visually exploring spatio-temporal clustering of avian influenza virus outbreaks in poultry farms. Sci Rep 2021; 11:22553. [PMID: 34799568 PMCID: PMC8604947 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-01207-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The development of visual tools for the timely identification of spatio-temporal clusters will assist in implementing control measures to prevent further damage. From January 2015 to June 2020, a total number of 1463 avian influenza outbreak farms were detected in Taiwan and further confirmed to be affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5Nx. In this study, we adopted two common concepts of spatio-temporal clustering methods, the Knox test and scan statistics, with visual tools to explore the dynamic changes of clustering patterns. Since most (68.6%) of the outbreak farms were detected in 2015, only the data from 2015 was used in this study. The first two-stage algorithm performs the Knox test, which established a threshold of 7 days and identified 11 major clusters in the six counties of southwestern Taiwan, followed by the standard deviational ellipse (SDE) method implemented on each cluster to reveal the transmission direction. The second algorithm applies scan likelihood ratio statistics followed by AGC index to visualize the dynamic changes of the local aggregation pattern of disease clusters at the regional level. Compared to the one-stage aggregation approach, Knox-based and AGC mapping were more sensitive in small-scale spatio-temporal clustering.
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2
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Scolamacchia F, Mulatti P, Mazzucato M, Barbujani M, Harvey WT, Fusaro A, Monne I, Marangon S. Different environmental gradients associated to the spatiotemporal and genetic pattern of the H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Italy. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 68:152-167. [PMID: 32613724 PMCID: PMC8048857 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2019] [Revised: 05/28/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 10/29/2022]
Abstract
Comprehensive understanding of the patterns and drivers of avian influenza outbreaks is pivotal to inform surveillance systems and heighten nations' ability to quickly detect and respond to the emergence of novel viruses. Starting in early 2017, the Italian poultry sector has been involved in the massive H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic that spread in the majority of the European countries in 2016/2017. Eighty-three outbreaks were recorded in north-eastern Italy, where a densely populated poultry area stretches along the Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto regions. The confirmed cases, affecting both the rural and industrial sectors, depicted two distinct epidemic waves. We adopted a combination of multivariate statistics techniques and multi-model regression selection and inference, to investigate how environmental factors relate to the pattern of outbreaks diversity with respect to their spatiotemporal and genetic diversity. Results showed that a combination of eco-climatic and host density predictors were associated with the outbreaks pattern, and variation along gradients was noticeable among genetically and geographically distinct groups of avian influenza cases. These regional contrasts may be indicative of a different mechanism driving the introduction and spreading routes of the influenza virus in the domestic poultry population. This methodological approach may be extended to different spatiotemporal scale to foster site-specific, ecologically informed risk mitigating strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paolo Mulatti
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieLegnaro (Padua)Italy
| | - Matteo Mazzucato
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieLegnaro (Padua)Italy
| | - Marco Barbujani
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieLegnaro (Padua)Italy
| | - William T. Harvey
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem HealthInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative MedicineCollege of Medical, Veterinary and Life SciencesUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
| | - Alice Fusaro
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieLegnaro (Padua)Italy
| | - Isabella Monne
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieLegnaro (Padua)Italy
| | - Stefano Marangon
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieLegnaro (Padua)Italy
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3
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Gierak A, Bocian Ł, Śmietanka K. Identification of Areas at Increased Risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Occurrence in Commercial Poultry in Poland. Avian Dis 2020; 63:257-262. [PMID: 31713402 DOI: 10.1637/0005-2086-63.sp1.257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2018] [Accepted: 01/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
The objective of the study was to identify the areas at increased risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurrence in commercial poultry in Poland. To identify the risk factors related to the occurrence of HPAI outbreaks, the opinions of Polish experts were combined with literature-driven knowledge. The relative impact of each risk factor was determined using a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The applied model suggests that the greatest risk of HPAI occurrence is concentrated in several counties in the eastern, western, and central parts of the country. The most influential risk actors responsible for HPAI occurrence in Poland included waterfowl density and proximity to waterbodies. The model had a high predictive value (area under the curve = 0.78). The developed spatial risk assessment of HPAI occurrence provides a valuable source of information for risk managers and can contribute to early detection of potential outbreaks of HPAI in poultry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Gierak
- Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment National Veterinary Research Institute, Al. Partyzantów 57, 24-100, Puławy, Poland
| | - Łukasz Bocian
- Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment National Veterinary Research Institute, Al. Partyzantów 57, 24-100, Puławy, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Śmietanka
- Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment National Veterinary Research Institute, Al. Partyzantów 57, 24-100, Puławy, Poland.,Department of Poultry Diseases, National Veterinary Research Institute, Al. Partyzantów 57, 24-100, Puławy, Poland.,Corresponding author: E-mail:
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4
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Dignard C, Leibler JH. Recent Research on Occupational Animal Exposures and Health Risks: A Narrative Review. Curr Environ Health Rep 2019; 6:236-246. [PMID: 31823248 PMCID: PMC7099379 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-019-00253-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW In the last year, an increasing number of studies have reported on methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) transmission in Africa and Asia and in migrant workers. We reviewed original research on occupational health and safety of animal workers published from January 1, 2018, through June 30, 2019, with a targeted focus on infectious disease studies published in these populations. RECENT FINDINGS Studies focused on occupational exposures to infectious agents, dust and allergens, pesticides, and occupational injury. Research on zoonotic MRSA used whole genome-sequencing technologies to evaluate transmission in Africa and Asia. Swine worker exposure to porcine coronavirus and emerging influenza A viruses was documented in China. 16s RNA amplicon sequencing identified distinct microbiota compositions in households with active animal farmers. Multiple bioaerosol exposures were assessed for industrial dairy workers. Occupational injury studies highlighted the struggles of Latino animal workers in the USA. These studies highlighted the global expansion of zoonotic antibiotic resistance and identified novel occupational zoonoses of concern. The integration of microbiome assessment and compound mixtures into the evaluation of dust and endotoxin exposures for animal workers marks a new direction for this work.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jessica H Leibler
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA, 02118, USA.
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5
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Production parameters and profitability of the Egyptian household poultry sector: a survey. WORLD POULTRY SCI J 2019. [DOI: 10.1017/s0043933915002718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
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6
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Pereira H, Artois M, Bicout DJ. Fireworks-like surveillance approach: The case of HPAI H5N1 in wild birds in Europe. Transbound Emerg Dis 2019; 67:206-222. [PMID: 31482660 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2018] [Revised: 08/22/2019] [Accepted: 08/23/2019] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) risk management requires efficient surveillance of the infection in wild birds for early warning purposes. In this study, our aim was to describe the spread of continent-wide infection cases using a fireworks model and therefore improve current surveillance systems. The fireworks model is a metaphor illustrating the spread of HPAI as a point source epizootic. The approach is based on early detection of the outbreak seeds (sparks from the fireworks) and uses a predictive model of the probability of the occurrence of new cases following a seed introduction; this then determines the spatiotemporal perimeter for intense surveillance investigations. For a case study, we used surveillance data on HPAI H5N1 in wild birds across Europe between 2005 and 2010 to describe the outbreaks and determine the success of the case detection used to inform management of the disease. The fireworks description assumes simultaneous introductions of 'seeds' of cases, which then 'explode' in local foci but do not merge into a progressive disease wave. This model fits the data well. Using this predictive approach for HPAI cases in EU countries, we found that the investigation radius needed to achieve a detection level of 90% of new cases after an outbreak ranged from 10 km to more than 300 km, depending on the outbreak pattern. Based on these findings, the fireworks approach can be a valuable method for identifying the perimeters and risk areas to be targeted for enhanced surveillance. The rationale of the fireworks approach is quite generic and can easily be adapted to different situations and contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helena Pereira
- VetAgro Sup, Veterinary Campus of Lyon, Marcy l'Étoile, France
| | - Marc Artois
- VetAgro Sup, Veterinary Campus of Lyon, Marcy l'Étoile, France
| | - Dominique J Bicout
- VetAgro Sup, Veterinary Campus of Lyon, Marcy l'Étoile, France.,Biomathematics and Epidemiology, EPSP- Labo TIMC, UMR 5525 CNRS, Grenoble Alpes University and VetAgro Sup, Marcy l'Étoile, France
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7
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Gierak A, Bocian Ł, Śmietanka K. Identification of Areas at Increased Risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Occurrence in Commercial Poultry in Poland. Avian Dis 2019. [DOI: 10.1637/0005-2086-63.1.257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anna Gierak
- Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment National Veterinary Research Institute, Al. Partyzantów 57, 24-100, Puławy, Poland
| | - Łukasz Bocian
- Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment National Veterinary Research Institute, Al. Partyzantów 57, 24-100, Puławy, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Śmietanka
- Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment National Veterinary Research Institute, Al. Partyzantów 57, 24-100, Puławy, Poland
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8
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Wu T, Perrings C. The live poultry trade and the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza: Regional differences between Europe, West Africa, and Southeast Asia. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0208197. [PMID: 30566454 PMCID: PMC6300203 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0208197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2018] [Accepted: 11/13/2018] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
In the past two decades, avian influenzas have posed an increasing international threat to human and livestock health. In particular, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe, leading to the deaths of millions of poultry and hundreds of people. The two main means of international spread are through migratory birds and the live poultry trade. We focus on the role played by the live poultry trade in the spread of H5N1 across three regions widely infected by the disease, which also correspond to three major trade blocs: the European Union (EU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Across all three regions, we found per-capita GDP (a proxy for modernization, general biosecurity, and value-at-risk) to be risk reducing. A more specific biosecurity measure-general surveillance-was also found to be mitigating at the all-regions level. However, there were important inter-regional differences. For the EU and ASEAN, intra-bloc live poultry imports were risk reducing while extra-bloc imports were risk increasing; for ECOWAS the reverse was true. This is likely due to the fact that while the EU and ASEAN have long-standing biosecurity standards and stringent enforcement (pursuant to the World Trade Organization's Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures), ECOWAS suffered from a lack of uniform standards and lax enforcement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tong Wu
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States of America
| | - Charles Perrings
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States of America
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9
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Wu T, Perrings C. Conservation, development and the management of infectious disease: avian influenza in China, 2004-2012. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 372:rstb.2016.0126. [PMID: 28438915 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/06/2016] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
There is growing evidence that wildlife conservation measures have mixed effects on the emergence and spread of zoonotic disease. Wildlife conservation has been found to have both positive (dilution) and negative (contagion) effects. In the case of avian influenza H5N1 in China, the focus has been on negative effects. Lakes and wetlands attracting migrating waterfowl have been argued to be disease hotspots. We consider the implications of waterfowl conservation for H5N1 infections in both poultry and humans between 2004 and 2012. We model both environmental and economic risk factors. Environmental risk factors comprise the conditions that structure interaction between wild and domesticated birds. Economic risk factors comprise the cost of disease, biosecurity measures and disease risk mitigation. We find that H5N1 outbreaks in poultry populations are indeed sensitive to the existence of wild-domesticated bird mixing zones, but not in the way we would expect from the literature. We find that risk is decreasing in protected migratory bird habitat. Since the number of human cases is increasing in the number of poultry outbreaks, as expected, the implication is that the protection of wetlands important for migratory birds offers unexpected human health benefits.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tong Wu
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-4501, USA
| | - Charles Perrings
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-4501, USA
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10
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Peng Y, Li X, Zhou H, Wu A, Dong L, Zhang Y, Gao R, Bo H, Yang L, Wang D, Lin X, Jin M, Shu Y, Jiang T. Continual Antigenic Diversification in China Leads to Global Antigenic Complexity of Avian Influenza H5N1 Viruses. Sci Rep 2017; 7:43566. [PMID: 28262734 PMCID: PMC5337931 DOI: 10.1038/srep43566] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2016] [Accepted: 01/25/2017] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus poses a significant potential threat to human society due to its wide spread and rapid evolution. In this study, we present a comprehensive antigenic map for HPAI H5N1 viruses including 218 newly sequenced isolates from diverse regions of mainland China, by computationally separating almost all HPAI H5N1 viruses into 15 major antigenic clusters (ACs) based on their hemagglutinin sequences. Phylogenetic analysis showed that 12 of these 15 ACs originated in China in a divergent pattern. Further analysis of the dissemination of HPAI H5N1 virus in China identified that the virus's geographic expansion was co-incident with a significant divergence in antigenicity. Moreover, this antigenic diversification leads to global antigenic complexity, as typified by the recent HPAI H5N1 spread, showing extensive co-circulation and local persistence. This analysis has highlighted the challenge in H5N1 prevention and control that requires different planning strategies even inside China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yousong Peng
- College of Biology, Human University, Changsha, 410082, China
- Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Xiaodan Li
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Hongbo Zhou
- College of Animal Science & Medicine, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China
| | - Aiping Wu
- Center of System Medicine, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100005, China
- Suzhou Institute of Systems Medicine, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215123, China
| | - Libo Dong
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Ye Zhang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Rongbao Gao
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Hong Bo
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Lei Yang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Dayan Wang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Xian Lin
- College of Animal Science & Medicine, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China
| | - Meilin Jin
- College of Animal Science & Medicine, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China
| | - Yuelong Shu
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 100052, China
| | - Taijiao Jiang
- Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
- Center of System Medicine, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100005, China
- Suzhou Institute of Systems Medicine, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215123, China
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11
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Wu T, Perrings C, Kinzig A, Collins JP, Minteer BA, Daszak P. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review. AMBIO 2017; 46:18-29. [PMID: 27492678 PMCID: PMC5226902 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-016-0809-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2015] [Revised: 04/16/2016] [Accepted: 07/18/2016] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tong Wu
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, LSA 123, 427 East Tyler Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
| | - Charles Perrings
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, LSA 127, 427 East Tyler Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
| | - Ann Kinzig
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, LSA 124, 427 East Tyler Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
- Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, 800 South Cady Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
| | - James P. Collins
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, LSC 402, 427 East Tyler Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
| | - Ben A. Minteer
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, LSA 262, 427 East Tyler Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
| | - Peter Daszak
- EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street - 17th Floor, New York, NY 10001 USA
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12
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Artois J, Lai S, Feng L, Jiang H, Zhou H, Li X, Dhingra MS, Linard C, Nicolas G, Xiao X, Robinson TP, Yu H, Gilbert M. H7N9 and H5N1 avian influenza suitability models for China: accounting for new poultry and live-poultry markets distribution data. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT : RESEARCH JOURNAL 2017; 31:393-402. [PMID: 28298880 PMCID: PMC5329093 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1362-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
In the last two decades, two important avian influenza viruses infecting humans emerged in China, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in the late nineties, and the low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H7N9 virus in 2013. China is home to the largest population of chickens (4.83 billion) and ducks (0.694 billion), representing, respectively 23.1 and 58.6% of the 2013 world stock, with a significant part of poultry sold through live-poultry markets potentially contributing to the spread of avian influenza viruses. Previous models have looked at factors associated with HPAI H5N1 in poultry and LPAI H7N9 in markets. However, these have not been studied and compared with a consistent set of predictor variables. Significant progress was recently made in the collection of poultry census and live-poultry market data, which are key potential factors in the distribution of both diseases. Here we compiled and reprocessed a new set of poultry census data and used these to analyse HPAI H5N1 and LPAI H7N9 distributions with boosted regression trees models. We found a limited impact of the improved poultry layers compared to models based on previous poultry census data, and a positive and previously unreported association between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and the density of live-poultry markets. In addition, the models fitted for the HPAI H5N1 and LPAI H7N9 viruses predict a high risk of disease presence for the area around Shanghai and Hong Kong. The main difference in prediction between the two viruses concerned the suitability of HPAI H5N1 in north-China around the Yellow sea (outlined with Tianjin, Beijing, and Shenyang city) where LPAI H7N9 has not spread intensely.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean Artois
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab. (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Shengjie Lai
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206 China
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032 China
| | - Luzhao Feng
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206 China
| | - Hui Jiang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206 China
| | - Hang Zhou
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206 China
| | - Xiangping Li
- Institute of Biodiversity Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433 China
| | - Madhur S. Dhingra
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab. (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
- Department of Animal Husbandry & Dairying, Government of Haryana, Pashudhan Bhawan, Bays No. 9-12, Sector -2, Panchkula, Haryana 134109 India
| | - Catherine Linard
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab. (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
- Department of Geography, Université de Namur, Namur, Belgium
| | - Gaëlle Nicolas
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab. (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Xiangming Xiao
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Spatial AnalysisUniversity of Oklahoma, 101 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK 73019 USA
| | - Timothy P. Robinson
- Livestock Systems and Environment (LSE), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hongjie Yu
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032 China
| | - Marius Gilbert
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab. (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
- Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brussels, Belgium
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13
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Dhingra MS, Artois J, Robinson TP, Linard C, Chaiban C, Xenarios I, Engler R, Liechti R, Kuznetsov D, Xiao X, Dobschuetz SV, Claes F, Newman SH, Dauphin G, Gilbert M. Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation. eLife 2016; 5. [PMID: 27885988 PMCID: PMC5161450 DOI: 10.7554/elife.19571] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2016] [Accepted: 11/14/2016] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Madhur S Dhingra
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.,Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Government of Haryana, Panchkula, India
| | - Jean Artois
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Timothy P Robinson
- Livestock Systems and Environment, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Catherine Linard
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.,Department of Geography, Université de Namur, Namur, Belgium
| | - Celia Chaiban
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Ioannis Xenarios
- Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland.,Center for Integrative Genomics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Robin Engler
- Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Robin Liechti
- Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Dmitri Kuznetsov
- Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Xiangming Xiao
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States.,Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States.,Institute of Biodiversity Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Sophie Von Dobschuetz
- Animal Production and Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Filip Claes
- Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases, FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Scott H Newman
- Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Gwenaëlle Dauphin
- Animal Production and Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Marius Gilbert
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.,Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brussels, Belgium
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14
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Hill NJ, Runstadler JA. A Bird's Eye View of Influenza A Virus Transmission: Challenges with Characterizing Both Sides of a Co-Evolutionary Dynamic. Integr Comp Biol 2016; 56:304-16. [PMID: 27252222 PMCID: PMC5964799 DOI: 10.1093/icb/icw055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
In nature, wild birds and influenza A viruses (IAV) are continually co-evolving, locked into a back-and-forth of resistance and conquest that has approached a stable equilibrium over time. This co-evolutionary relationship between bird host and IAV may appear stable at the organismal level, but is highly dynamic at the molecular level manifesting in a constant trade-off between transmissibility and virulence of the virus. Characterizing both sides of the host-virus dynamic has presented a challenge for ecologists and virologists alike, despite the potential for this approach to provide insights into which conditions destabilize the equilibrium state resulting in outbreaks or mortality of hosts in extreme cases. The use of different methods that are either host-centric or virus-centric has made it difficult to reconcile the disparate fields of host ecology and virology for investigating and ultimately predicting wild bird-mediated transmission of IAV. This review distills some of the key lessons learned from virological and ecological studies and explores the promises and pitfalls of both approaches. Ultimately, reconciling ecological and virological approaches hinges on integrating scales for measuring host-virus interactions. We argue that prospects for finding common scales for measuring wild bird-influenza dynamics are improving due to advances in genomic sequencing, host-tracking technology and remote sensing data, with the unit of time (months, year, or seasons) providing a starting point for crossover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nichola J Hill
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Division of Comparative Medicine & Department of Biological Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge 02139
| | - Jonathan A Runstadler
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Division of Comparative Medicine & Department of Biological Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge 02139
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15
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Walsh MG, Amstislavski P, Greene A, Haseeb MA. The Landscape Epidemiology of Seasonal Clustering of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Domestic Poultry in Africa, Europe and Asia. Transbound Emerg Dis 2016; 64:1465-1478. [DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2016] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- M. G. Walsh
- Westmead Clinical School and Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity; University of Sydney; Sydney NSW Australia
| | - P. Amstislavski
- Department of Health Sciences; University of Alaska; Anchorage AK USA
| | - A. Greene
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics; School of Public Health; State University of New York Downstate Medical Center; Brooklyn NY USA
| | - M. A. Haseeb
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics; School of Public Health; State University of New York Downstate Medical Center; Brooklyn NY USA
- Departments of Cell Biology, Pathology and Medicine; College of Medicine; State University of New York Downstate Medical Center; Brooklyn NY USA
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16
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Abstract
Africa is faced with many of the most daunting challenges of our time. It comprises roughly 15% of the world's human population, and most of its countries are perpetually ranked "Low" on the United Nations' Human Development Index. On the other hand, Africa has arguably the largest proportion of intact natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and sociocultural capital and the lowest impact on global warming of any continent. Thus, African leaders are faced with competing demands and values among a multitude of complex issues, such as high human population growth, extreme poverty, food insecurity, land use policy, climate change, and biodiversity conservation. In this context, building sustainable national systems for human and/or animal health is one of the grand challenges of this generation. Today's complex global health and development challenges require long-term commitment and a range of approaches that are too broad for any one discipline, institution, or country to implement on its own. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnectedness of global health issues and, as such, promotes the importance of and need for international, interdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral communication and collaboration at local, national, and international levels. By taking advantage of natural cultural tendencies for shared leadership, resource allocation, and community values, African leaders are currently proactively demonstrating the principles of One Health, and thus becoming a model for this global vision. And by focusing on partnerships rather than donor-recipient relationships, they are fostering the development of shared priorities and are increasingly driving their own health agenda to fulfill their own needs.
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17
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Kock
- Royal Veterinary College; Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms Hatfield Hertfordshire AL9 7TA UK
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18
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Dixon MA, Dar OA, Heymann DL. Emerging infectious diseases: opportunities at the human-animal-environment interface. Vet Rec 2014; 174:546-51. [PMID: 24920712 DOI: 10.1136/vr.g3263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Osman A Dar
- Chatham House Centre on Global Health Security, Chatham House, 10 St James's Square, London SW1Y 4LE, UK, e-mail:
| | - David L Heymann
- Public Health England, Wellington House, 133-155 Waterloo Road, London SE1 8UG, UK, e-mail:
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19
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Paul MC, Gilbert M, Desvaux S, Rasamoelina Andriamanivo H, Peyre M, Khong NV, Thanapongtharm W, Chevalier V. Agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza circulation: a multisite study in Thailand, Vietnam and Madagascar. PLoS One 2014; 9:e101958. [PMID: 25029441 PMCID: PMC4100877 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0101958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2014] [Accepted: 06/12/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have occurred and have been studied in a variety of ecological systems. However, differences in the spatial resolution, geographical extent, units of analysis and risk factors examined in these studies prevent their quantitative comparison. This study aimed to develop a high-resolution, comparative study of a common set of agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in domestic poultry in four different environments: (1) lower-Northern Thailand, where H5N1 circulated in 2004-2005, (2) the Red River Delta in Vietnam, where H5N1 is circulating widely, (3) the Vietnam highlands, where sporadic H5N1 outbreaks have occurred, and (4) the Lake Alaotra region in Madagascar, which features remarkable similarities with Asian agro-ecosystems and where low pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been found. We analyzed H5N1 outbreak data in Thailand in parallel with serological data collected on the H5 subtype in Vietnam and on low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar. Several agro-environmental covariates were examined: poultry densities, landscape dominated by rice cultivation, proximity to a water body or major road, and human population density. Relationships between covariates and AIV circulation were explored using spatial generalized linear models. We found that AIV prevalence was negatively associated with distance to the closest water body in the Red River Delta, Vietnam highlands and Madagascar. We also found a positive association between AIV and duck density in the Vietnam highlands and Thailand, and with rice landscapes in Thailand and Madagascar. Our findings confirm the important role of wetlands-rice-ducks ecosystems in the epidemiology of AI in diverse settings. Variables influencing circulation of the H5 subtype in Southeast Asia played a similar role for low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar, indicating that this area may be at risk if a highly virulent strain is introduced.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathilde C. Paul
- Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), UR AGIRs, Montpellier, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP-ENVT, UMR ENVT INRA 1225 IHAP, Toulouse, France
- * E-mail:
| | - Marius Gilbert
- Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
- Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Stéphanie Desvaux
- Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), UR AGIRs, Montpellier, France
- Direction Régionale de l’Alimentation, de l’Agriculture et de la Forêt de Languedoc- Roussillon, Montpellier, France
| | | | - Marisa Peyre
- Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), UR AGIRs, Montpellier, France
| | | | | | - Véronique Chevalier
- Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), UR AGIRs, Montpellier, France
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20
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21
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Sims LD. Intervention strategies to reduce the risk of zoonotic infection with avian influenza viruses: scientific basis, challenges and knowledge gaps. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2014; 7 Suppl 2:15-25. [PMID: 24034479 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
A range of measures has been recommended and used for the control and prevention of avian influenza. These measures are based on the assessment of local epidemiological situations, field observations and other scientific information. Other non-technical factors are (or in some cases should be) taken into account when developing and recommending control measures. The precise effects under field conditions of most individual interventions applied to control and prevent avian influenza have not been established or subjected to critical review, often because a number of measures are applied simultaneously without controls. In most cases, the combination of measures used results in control or elimination of the virus although there are some countries where this has not been the case. In others, especially those with low poultry density, it is not clear whether the link between the adoption of a set of measures and the subsequent control of the disease is causative. This article discusses the various measures recommended, with particular emphasis on stamping out and vaccination, examines how these measures assist in preventing zoonotic infections with avian influenza viruses and explores gaps in knowledge regarding their effectiveness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leslie D Sims
- Asia Pacific Veterinary Information Services, Montmorency, Vic., Australia
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22
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Forster P. Ten years on: generating innovative responses to avian influenza. ECOHEALTH 2013; 11:15-21. [PMID: 24337506 PMCID: PMC7087817 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-013-0887-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2013] [Revised: 10/07/2013] [Accepted: 10/08/2013] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Since 2006, the number of recorded H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks has declined globally, but at mid-2012 the disease was enzootic in six countries in Asia and Africa, and sporadic outbreaks continue over a wide area. It is now accepted that it will take decades to eliminate the H5N1 virus in poultry and 'unconventional' response approaches have been called for. Drawing on increased understandings of the epizoosis over the last 10 years, this paper investigates what conditions are required if such innovative approaches are to be generated. It argues that addressing the spread and persistence of avian influenza is primarily a political matter, and if approaches appropriate for enzooticity are to be devised, the social, political, and economic dynamics of the disease and responses to it need to be identified and prioritised. A dominant response strategy focused on outbreak events, containment and eradication has obscured these important dynamics. If innovative 'unconventional' responses are to be generated, a wider range of perspectives and expertise needs to be engaged. This will result in political processes of negotiation, which the technically led, development-orientated institutions directing and funding the global response are ill-equipped to facilitate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Forster
- , 174 Battersea Park Road, London, SW11 4ND, UK,
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23
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Abstract
The livestock sector and agriculture as a whole face unprecedented challenges to increase production while improving the environment. On the basis of a literature review, the paper first discusses challenges related to climate change, food security and other drivers of change in livestock production. On the basis of a recent discourse in ecology, a framework for assessing livestock species' and breeds' vulnerability to climate change is presented. The second part of the paper draws on an analysis of data on breed qualities obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization's Domestic Animal Diversity Information System (DAD-IS) to explore the range of adaptation traits present in today's breed diversity. The analysis produced a first mapping of a range of ascribed adaptation traits of national breed populations. It allowed to explore what National Coordinators understand by 'locally adapted' and other terms that describe general adaptation, to better understand the habitat, fodder and temperature range of each species and to shed light on the environments in which targeted search for adaptation traits could focus.
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24
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Modeling habitat suitability for occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in domestic poultry in Asia: A spatial multicriteria decision analysis approach. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2013; 4:1-14. [DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2012.11.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2011] [Revised: 10/26/2012] [Accepted: 11/07/2012] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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25
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Gilbert M, Pfeiffer DU. Risk factor modelling of the spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAIV) H5N1: a review. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2012; 3:173-83. [PMID: 22749203 PMCID: PMC3389348 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2012.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2011] [Revised: 11/25/2011] [Accepted: 01/30/2012] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 continues to impact on smallholder livelihoods, to constrain development of the poultry production sector, and to cause occasional human fatalities. HPAI H5N1 outbreaks have occurred in a variety of ecological systems with economic, agricultural and environmental differences. This review aimed to identify common risk factors amongst spatial modelling studies conducted in these different agro-ecological systems, and to identify gaps in our understanding of the disease's spatial epidemiology. Three types of variables with similar statistical association with HPAI H5N1 presence across studies and regions were identified: domestic waterfowl, several anthropogenic variables (human population density, distance to roads) and indicators of water presence. Variables on socio-economic conditions, poultry trade, wild bird distribution and movements were comparatively rarely considered. Few studies have analysed the HPAI H5N1 distribution in countries such as Egypt and Indonesia, where HPAIV H5N1 continues to circulate extensively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marius Gilbert
- Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles, av FD Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium.
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26
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Newman SH, Hill NJ, Spragens KA, Janies D, Voronkin IO, Prosser DJ, Yan B, Lei F, Batbayar N, Natsagdorj T, Bishop CM, Butler PJ, Wikelski M, Balachandran S, Mundkur T, Douglas DC, Takekawa JY. Eco-virological approach for assessing the role of wild birds in the spread of avian influenza H5N1 along the Central Asian Flyway. PLoS One 2012; 7:e30636. [PMID: 22347393 PMCID: PMC3274535 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2011] [Accepted: 12/20/2011] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus) and ruddy shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this 'thoroughfare'. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005-2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott H Newman
- EMPRES Wildlife Unit, Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Animal Production and Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
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27
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Trevennec K, Chevalier V, Grosbois V, Garcia JM, Thu HH, Berthouly-Salazar C, Peiris JSM, Roger F. Looking for avian influenza in remote areas. A case study in Northern Vietnam. Acta Trop 2011; 120:160-6. [PMID: 21840292 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2011.07.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2011] [Revised: 07/26/2011] [Accepted: 07/30/2011] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Epidemiological surveys of avian influenza infections rarely focus on backyard poultry systems in remote locations because areas with low levels of poultry production are considered to have little influence on the emergence, re-emergence, persistence or spread of avian influenza viruses. In addition, routine disease investigations in remote areas often are neglected due to the lower availability and relatively high cost of veterinary services there. A bank of avian sera collected in 2005 from ethnic minority households in Ha Giang province (Northern Vietnam), located on the Chinese border, was analysed to estimate the seroprevalence of avian influenza virus (AIV) during a H5N1 epidemic and to identify potential risk factors for infection. The results suggest that the chicken population had been exposed to AIV with a seroprevalence rate of 7.2% [1.45; 10.5]. The H5 and H9 subtypes were identified with a seroprevalence of 3.25% [2.39; 4.11] and 1.12% [0.61; 1.63], respectively. The number of inhabitants in a village and the distance to the main national road were the most influential risk factors of AIV infection, and high-risk clusters were located along the road leading to China. These two results suggest a virus spread through commercial poultry exchanges and a possible introduction of AIV from southern China. Remote areas and small-scale farms may play an under-estimated role in the spread and persistence of AIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Trevennec
- French Agricultural Research Center for International Development (CIRAD), Animal and Integrated Risk Management Research Unit, Baillarguet Campus, Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
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28
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Fasina FO, Ali AM, Yilma JM, Thieme O, Ankers P. The cost-benefit of biosecurity measures on infectious diseases in the Egyptian household poultry. Prev Vet Med 2011; 103:178-91. [PMID: 21982688 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.09.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2011] [Revised: 09/02/2011] [Accepted: 09/16/2011] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Increased animal intensification presents with increasing risks of animal diseases. The Egyptian household poultry is peculiar in its management style and housing and this present with particular challenges of risk of infection to both the flock and humans. Biosecurity remains one of the most important means of reducing risks of infection in the household poultry, however not much information is available to support its feasibility at the household level of production. In this study financial feasibilities of biosecurity were modeled and evaluated based on certain production parameters. Risks of particular importance to the household poultry were categorized and highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 was the most risky disease while people-related risk was the most important risk category. It was observed that basic biosecurity measures were applicable in the household poultry and it would be 8.45 times better to implement biosecurity than to do nothing against HPAI H5N1; 4.88 times better against Newcastle disease and 1.49 times better against coccidiosis. Sensitivity analyses proved that the household poultry project was robust and would withstand various uncertainties. An uptake pathway for basic biosecurity was suggested. The outcome of this work should support decisions to implement biosecurity at the household sector of poultry production.
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Affiliation(s)
- F O Fasina
- Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD), FAO, Dokki-Cairo, Cairo, Egypt.
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29
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Stevens KB, Pfeiffer DU. Spatial modelling of disease using data- and knowledge-driven approaches. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2011; 2:125-33. [PMID: 22748172 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2011.07.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
The purpose of spatial modelling in animal and public health is three-fold: describing existing spatial patterns of risk, attempting to understand the biological mechanisms that lead to disease occurrence and predicting what will happen in the medium to long-term future (temporal prediction) or in different geographical areas (spatial prediction). Traditional methods for temporal and spatial predictions include general and generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and Bayesian estimation methods. However, such models require both disease presence and absence data which are not always easy to obtain. Novel spatial modelling methods such as maximum entropy (MAXENT) and the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP) require only disease presence data and have been used extensively in the fields of ecology and conservation, to model species distribution and habitat suitability. Other methods, such as multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), use knowledge of the causal factors of disease occurrence to identify areas potentially suitable for disease. In addition to their less restrictive data requirements, some of these novel methods have been shown to outperform traditional statistical methods in predictive ability (Elith et al., 2006). This review paper provides details of some of these novel methods for mapping disease distribution, highlights their advantages and limitations, and identifies studies which have used the methods to model various aspects of disease distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kim B Stevens
- Veterinary Epidemiology and Public Health Group, Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire AL9 7TA, UK.
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30
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Lebarbenchon C, Stallknecht DE. Host shifts and molecular evolution of H7 avian influenza virus hemagglutinin. Virol J 2011; 8:328. [PMID: 21711553 PMCID: PMC3141685 DOI: 10.1186/1743-422x-8-328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2011] [Accepted: 06/28/2011] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Evolutionary consequences of host shifts represent a challenge to identify the mechanisms involved in the emergence of influenza A (IA) viruses. In this study we focused on the evolutionary history of H7 IA virus in wild and domestic birds, with a particular emphasis on host shifts consequences on the molecular evolution of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene. Based on a dataset of 414 HA nucleotide sequences, we performed an extensive phylogeographic analysis in order to identify the overall genetic structure of H7 IA viruses. We then identified host shift events and investigated viral population dynamics in wild and domestic birds, independently. Finally, we estimated changes in nucleotide substitution rates and tested for positive selection in the HA gene. A strong association between the geographic origin and the genetic structure was observed, with four main clades including viruses isolated in North America, South America, Australia and Eurasia-Africa. We identified ten potential events of virus introduction from wild to domestic birds, but little evidence for spillover of viruses from poultry to wild waterbirds. Several sites involved in host specificity (addition of a glycosylation site in the receptor binding domain) and virulence (insertion of amino acids in the cleavage site) were found to be positively selected in HA nucleotide sequences, in genetically unrelated lineages, suggesting parallel evolution for the HA gene of IA viruses in domestic birds. These results highlight that evolutionary consequences of bird host shifts would need to be further studied to understand the ecological and molecular mechanisms involved in the emergence of domestic bird-adapted viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camille Lebarbenchon
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA.
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31
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Van Boeckel TP, Prosser D, Franceschini G, Biradar C, Wint W, Robinson T, Gilbert M. Modelling the distribution of domestic ducks in Monsoon Asia. AGRICULTURE, ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT 2011; 141:373-380. [PMID: 21822341 PMCID: PMC3148691 DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2011.04.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Domestic ducks are considered to be an important reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as shown by a number of geospatial studies in which they have been identified as a significant risk factor associated with disease presence. Despite their importance in HPAI epidemiology, their large-scale distribution in monsoon Asia is poorly understood. In this study, we created a spatial database of domestic duck census data in Asia and used it to train statistical distribution models for domestic duck distributions at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The method was based on a modelling framework used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to produce the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, and relies on stratified regression models between domestic duck densities and a set of agro-ecological explanatory variables. We evaluated different ways of stratifying the analysis and of combining the prediction to optimize the goodness of fit of the predictions. We found that domestic duck density could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (mean RMSE and correlation coefficient between log-transformed observed and predicted densities being 0.58 and 0.80, respectively), using a stratification based on livestock production systems. We tested the use of artificially degraded data on duck distributions in Thailand and Vietnam as training data, and compared the modelled outputs with the original high-resolution data. This showed, for these two countries at least, that these approaches could be used to accurately disaggregate provincial level (administrative level 1) statistical data to provide high resolution model distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas P Van Boeckel
- Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles CP160/12, Av FD Roosevelt 50, B1050, Brussels, Belgium
- Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, rue d’Egmont 5, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Diann Prosser
- USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Baltimore Avenue 10300, MD 20705 Beltsville, and University of Maryland, College Park, USA
| | - Gianluca Franceschini
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 00153, Rome, Italy
| | - Chandra Biradar
- Department of Botany and Microbiology, Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, 73019 USA
| | - William Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford, P.O. Box 346, Oxford OX1 3QE, United Kingdom
| | - Tim Robinson
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 00153, Rome, Italy
| | - Marius Gilbert
- Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles CP160/12, Av FD Roosevelt 50, B1050, Brussels, Belgium
- Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, rue d’Egmont 5, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium
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