Evaluating the Impact of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy, 2010-2015

Intersecting alcohol use and depression impedes HIV treatment in the rural South, USA

This study tested the hypothesis that the co-occurrence of alcohol use and depressive symptoms predicts HIV suppression and antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence among people living with HIV. Baseline cross-sectional results showed a significant interaction between depressive symptoms and alcohol use in predicting HIV suppression; individuals who drank more alcohol and had higher depressive symptoms demonstrated poorer HIV suppression relative to those who had fewer depressive symptoms. In a one-year longitudinal analysis of ART adherence, alcohol use and depressive symptoms measured in daily text-message assessments demonstrated that neither alcohol use nor depressive symptoms alone predicted ART adherence. However, the intersection of alcohol use on days when experiencing depressive symptoms did significantly predict ART non-adherence, for both moderate and heavy alcohol drinkers. Findings suggest that the co-occurrence of alcohol use and depressive symptoms is a robust predictor of poor HIV treatment outcomes.

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

OBJECTIVES

Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies.

METHODS

A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030).

RESULTS

All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

The Changing Science of HIV Epidemiology in the United States

In 1984, a large prospective study of the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), was established; 10 years later, the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) was launched. Motivated by the merger and redesign of these long-standing HIV cohort studies in 2019, we review ways in which HIV epidemiology in the United States has transformed over the lives of these studies and how this evolution has influenced planning for enrollment and follow-up. We highlight changes that have occurred in the 3 major domains that are central to epidemiologic science: changes to key populations at highest risk for HIV, refinements in measurement and shifts in the outcomes of interest, and a new era in the tools and approaches that epidemiologists use to synthesize evidence from measurements made on populations. By embracing foundational principles with modern methods, the epidemiologic approach of analyzing the causes and distributions of diseases in contemporaneous populations will continue to advance HIV science over the next decade.

Effects of Reaching National Goals on HIV Incidence, by Race and Ethnicity, in the United States

CONTEXT

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and prevalence in the United States are characterized by significant disparities by race/ethnicity. National HIV care goals, such as boosting to 90% the proportion of persons whose HIV is diagnosed and increasing to 80% the proportion of persons living with diagnosed HIV who are virally suppressed, will likely reduce HIV incidence, but their effects on HIV-related disparities are uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to understand by race/ethnicity how current HIV care varies, the level of effort required to achieve national HIV care goals, and the effects of reaching those goals on HIV incidence and disparities.

DESIGN

Using a dynamic model of HIV transmission, we identified 2016 progress along the HIV care continuum among blacks, Hispanics, and whites/others compared with national 2020 goals. We examined disparities over time.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Beginning in 2006, our dynamic compartmental model simulated the sexually active US population 13 to 64 years of age, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

We compared HIV cumulative incidence from 2016 to 2020 when goals were reached compared with base case assumptions about progression along the HIV care continuum.

RESULTS

The 2016 proportion of persons with diagnosed HIV who were on treatment and virally suppressed was 50% among blacks, 56% among Hispanics, and 61% among whites/others, compared with a national goal of 80%. When diagnosis, linkage, and viral suppression goals were reached in 2020, cumulative HIV incidence fell by 32% (uncertainty range: 18%-37%) for blacks, 25% (22%-31%) for Hispanics, and 25% (21%-28%) for whites/others. Disparity measures changed little.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving national HIV care goals will require different levels of effort by race/ethnicity but likely will result in substantial declines in cumulative HIV incidence. HIV-related disparities in incidence and prevalence may be difficult to resolve.

Trust and Expectations of Researchers and Public Health Departments for the Use of HIV Molecular Epidemiology

Background: Molecular epidemiology (ME) is a technique used to study the dynamics of pathogen transmission through a population. When used to study HIV infections, ME generates powerful information about how HIV is transmitted, including epidemiologic patterns of linkage and, potentially, transmission direction. Thus, ME raises challenging questions about the most responsible way to protect individual privacy while acquiring and using these data to advance public health and inform HIV intervention strategies. Here, we report on stakeholders' expectations for how researchers and public health agencies might use HIV ME. Methods: We conducted in-depth semistructured interviews with 40 key stakeholders to find out how these individuals respond to the proposed risks and benefits of HIV ME. Transcripts were coded and analyzed using Atlas.ti. Expectations were assessed through analysis of responses to hypothetical scenarios designed to help interviewees think through the implications of this emerging technique in the contexts of research and public health. Results: Our analysis reveals a wide range of imagined responsibilities, capabilities, and trustworthiness of researchers and public health agencies. Specifically, many respondents expect researchers and public health agencies to use HIV ME carefully and maintain transparency about how data will be used. Informed consent was discussed as an important opportunity for notification of privacy risks. Furthermore, some respondents wished that public health agencies were held to the same form of oversight and accountability represented by informed consent in research. Conclusions: To prevent HIV ME from becoming a barrier to testing or a source of public mistrust, the sense of vulnerability expressed by some respondents must be addressed. In research, informed consent is an obvious opportunity for this. Without giving specimen donors a similar opportunity to opt out, public health agencies may find it difficult to adopt HIV ME without deterring testing and treatment.

Perceptions of molecular epidemiology studies of HIV among stakeholders

Background: Advances in viral sequence analysis make it possible to track the spread of infectious pathogens, such as HIV, within a population. When used to study HIV, these analyses (i.e., molecular epidemiology) potentially allow inference of the identity of individual research subjects. Current privacy standards are likely insufficient for this type of public health research. To address this challenge, it will be important to understand how stakeholders feel about the benefits and risks of such research.

Design and Methods: To better understand perceived benefits and risks of these research methods, in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with HIV-infected individuals, individuals at high-risk for contracting HIV, and professionals in HIV care and prevention. To gather additional perspectives, attendees to a public lecture on molecular epidemiology were asked to complete an informal questionnaire.

Results: Among those interviewed and polled, there was near unanimous support for using molecular epidemiology to study HIV. Questionnaires showed strong agreement about benefits of molecular epidemiology, but diverse attitudes regarding risks. Interviewees acknowledged several risks, including privacy breaches and provocation of anti-gay sentiment. The interviews also demonstrated a possibility that misunderstandings about molecular epidemiology may affect how risks and benefits are evaluated.

Conclusions: While nearly all study participants agree that the benefits of HIV molecular epidemiology outweigh the risks, concerns about privacy must be addressed to ensure continued trust in research institutions and willingness to participate in research.

U.S. HIV Incidence and Transmission Goals, 2020 and 2025

INTRODUCTION

The recently updated U.S. National HIV/AIDS Strategy sets key HIV prevention and care targets for 2020, but the trajectory of the epidemic remains unclear. Authors modeled HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality for the U.S. over 10 years to determine whether an ambitious trajectory toward "ending AIDS" by 2025 would be achievable.

METHODS

Authors utilized recently published 2010-2013 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data to model HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Authors applied a 90/90/90 framework (90% awareness of serostatus, 90% of diagnosed individuals in care, and 90% of individuals on antiretroviral therapy virally suppressed) by 2020 and 95/95/95 by 2025 to assess the feasibility of meeting epidemiologic targets. Analyses were conducted in 2016.

RESULTS

With a goal of reducing infections to 21,000 new HIV infections in 2020, authors project a transmission rate of 1.74, 12,571 deaths, and a total of 1,205,515 people living with HIV. By 2025, with a target of 12,000 new HIV infections (a 69% decrease in HIV incidence), authors project a transmission rate of 0.98, 12,522 deaths, and a total of 1,220,615 people living with HIV. With a 90/90/90 framework by 2020 and a 95/95/95 framework by 2025, these epidemiologic targets would be feasible.

CONCLUSIONS

Key programmatic milestones provide an ambitious, but important, pathway to reduce U.S. HIV incidence below 12,000 new infections by 2025. HIV incidence would decrease below mortality in 2025, marking a transition toward ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Such goals will require a sustained and intensified national commitment over the next decade.

Pence, Putin, Mbeki and Their HIV/AIDS-Related Crimes Against Humanity: Call for Social Justice and Behavioral Science Advocacy

Indiana, a large rural state in the Midwestern United States, suffered the worst North American HIV outbreak among injection drug users in years. The Indiana state government under former Governor and current US Vice President Mike Pence fueled the HIV outbreak by prohibiting needle/syringe exchange and failed to take substantive action once the outbreak was identified. This failure in public health policy parallels the HIV epidemics driven by oppressive drug laws in current day Russia and is reminiscent of the anti-science AIDS denialism of 1999-2007 South Africa. The argument that Russian President Putin and former South African President Mbeki should be held accountable for their AIDS policies as crimes against humanity can be extended to Vice President Pence. Social and behavioral scientists have a responsibility to inform the public of HIV prevention realities and to advocate for evidence-based public health policies to prevent future outbreaks of HIV infection.

Presidential Elections and HIV-Related National Policies and Programs

The November 2016 general election and subsequent voting of the Electoral College resulted in the selection of Donald Trump as President of the United States. The incoming Administration ran a campaign that indicated a desire for substantial change in health policy, including the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). President Trump has said very little directly about HIV programs and policies, but some campaign positions (such as the repeal of the ACA) would clearly and substantially impact the lives of persons living with HIV. In this editorial, we highlight important HIV-related goals to which we must recommit ourselves, and we underscore several key points about evidence-based advocacy that are important to revisit at any time (but most especially when there is a change in Administration).

HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence

Background

The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends.

Objective

The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods.

Methods

Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM).

Results

On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (P<.001). Adjusting for reporting delays, diagnoses decreased 3.1% per year (P<.001). The CD4 model estimated an annual decrease in incidence of 4.6% (P<.001) and the Bayesian hierarchical model 2.6% (P<.001); the stratified extrapolation approach estimated a stable incidence. During these years, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM.

Conclusions

HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all race or ethnicity groups. Further progress depends on effectively reducing HIV incidence among MSM, among whom the majority of new infections occur.