Future expectations among adolescents: a latent class analysis

The impact of school climate in social-normative expectations in low and high SES schools

This study examined the associations among race/ethnicity, school climate, and social-normative expectations (expectations about peers' future achievement) in high and low socioeconomic status (SES) schools, with a particular focus on school climate as a process that might influence social-normative expectations. Results showed that more positive perceptions of school climate were significantly associated with higher levels of social-normative expectations in both low and high SES settings. Additionally, identifying as Black was negatively associated with social-normative expectations in both high and low SES schools. School climate significantly moderated the negative relationship between race and social-normative expectations in high SES schools; however, there was no moderation in low SES schools. In both high and low SES schools, school climate was a robust predictor of social-normative expectations, highlighting the importance of social-normative expectations as a metric of school climate improvement in both high and low SES schools. In conclusion, policies related to school culture and climate, school improvement, and turnaround should explicitly focus on the connection of racial and ethnic equity, specifically for Black and Latinx students, to reflect the range and reality of students' social-normative expectations.

Perceived parenting practices associated with African American adolescents' future expectations

The current chapter investigated perceived parenting practices associated with future expectations in a sample of African American adolescents and how these relations varied across self-processes (i.e., hope, self-esteem, racial identity). Specifically, 358 low-income, African American high school students were surveyed to examine the role of perceived parenting practices in youth's aspirations and expectations. Structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that general parenting practices (i.e., support, monitoring, and consistent discipline) and racial socialization (i.e., preparation for bias, cultural socialization) significantly predicted positive future expectations, particularly for adolescents with low self-esteem. Implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed. Importantly, the results contribute to understanding of the developmental cascades of parenting practices and racial socialization in the everyday experiences of African American populations.

Applying a complex systems perspective to alcohol consumption and the prevention of alcohol-related harms in the 21st century: a scoping review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A complex systems perspective has been advocated to explore multi-faceted factors influencing public health issues, including alcohol consumption and associated harms. This scoping review aimed to identify studies that applied a complex systems perspective to alcohol consumption and the prevention of alcohol-related harms in order to summarize their characteristics and identify evidence gaps.

METHODS

Studies published between January 2000 and September 2020 in English were located by searching for terms synonymous with 'complex systems' and 'alcohol' in the Scopus, MEDLINE, Web of Science and Embase databases, and through handsearching and reference screening of included studies. Data were extracted on each study's aim, country, population, alcohol topic, system levels, funding, theory, methods, data sources, time-frames, system modifications and type of findings produced.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven individual studies and three systematic reviews were identified, the majority of which were conducted in the United States or Australia in the general population, university students or adolescents. Studies explored types and patterns of consumption behaviour and the local environments in which alcohol is consumed. Most studies focused on individual and local interactions and influences, with fewer examples exploring the relationships between these and regional, national and international subsystems. The body of literature is methodologically diverse and includes theory-led approaches, dynamic simulation models and social network analyses. The systematic reviews focused on primary network studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a complex systems perspective has provided a variety of ways of conceptualizing and analyzing alcohol use and harm prevention efforts, but its focus ultimately has remained on predominantly individual- and/or local-level systems. A complex systems perspective represents an opportunity to address this gap by also considering the vertical dimensions that constrain, shape and influence alcohol consumption and related harms, but the literature to date has not fully captured this potential.

Future Expectations and Internet Addiction Among Adolescents: The Roles of Intolerance of Uncertainty and Perceived Social Support

Internet addiction is a common and challenging problem among adolescents. Previous studies have shown that future time orientation is an important protective factor against internet addiction. In this study, the mediating effect of intolerance of uncertainty and the moderating role of perceived social support were examined on the association between future expectations, regarded as the "prospective life course" perspective of future time orientation, and internet addiction among adolescents. A total of 1,006 Chinese adolescents (54% male and 46% female; Mage = 15.42 years, SD = 1.32) recruited from middle schools completed questionnaires. Results indicated that future expectations were significantly negatively associated with internet addiction, and the link was mediated by intolerance to uncertainty in adolescents. Further, the latent moderated structural equation showed that perceived social support moderated the association between future expectations and intolerance of uncertainty. The association was significant only for adolescents with a higher level of perceived social support. The findings of this study provide specific guidelines for how to prevent adolescent internet addiction.

The relation between quality of life and future expectations for refugee adolescents

PROBLEM

Refugee children and their families encounter various challenges in a new country. Studies on this issue reveal the presence of negative expectations on the future and life among refugees. This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between quality of life and future expectations in refugee adolescents.

METHODS

This descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted in Turkey. In this study, 76 refugee adolescents between the ages of 12 and 18 participated. The study data were collected between September and December 2019 from two of the schools located in Istanbul. Study data were collected by using Future Expectation Scale for Adolescents (FESA) and Pediatric Quality of Life Questionnaire (PedsQL).

FINDINGS

The mean ages of the participants were 15.7 ± 1.1 and all of them were females. A positive relationship was found between future expectations and quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed that a positive significant relation was detected between quality-of-life scores and future expectations' scores. Understanding the factors affecting future expectations of refugee adolescents will help to plan interventions compatible with issues confronting adolescents.

Association of Social Mobility With the Income-Related Longevity Gap in the United States: A Cross-Sectional, County-Level Study

IMPORTANCE

Despite substantial research, the drivers of the widening gap in life expectancy between rich and poor individuals in the United States-known as the longevity gap-remain unknown. The hypothesis of this study is that social mobility may play an important role in explaining the longevity gap.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether social mobility is associated with income-related differences in life expectancy in the United States.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional, ecological study used data from 1559 counties in the United States to assess the association of social mobility with average life expectancy at age 40 years by sex and income quartile among adult men and women over the period of January 2000 through December 2014. Bayesian generalized linear multilevel regression models were used to estimate the association, with adjustment for a range of socioeconomic, demographic, and health care system characteristics.

EXPOSURES

County-level social mobility, here operationalized as the association of the income rank of individuals born during the period of January 1980 through December 1982 (based on tax record data, averaged over the period January 2010 through December 2012) with the income ranks of their parents (averaged over the period January 1996 through December 2000) using the location where the parent first claimed the child as a dependent at age 15 years to identify counties.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was life expectancy at age 40 years by sex and income quartile.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 1559 counties, which represented 93% of the US population in 2000. Each 1-SD increase in social mobility-equivalent to the difference between a low-mobility state, such as Alabama (ranked 49th on this measure), and a higher-mobility state, such as Massachusetts (ranked 23rd on this measure)-was associated with a 0.38-year (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.29-0.47) and a 0.29-year (95% CrI, 0.21-0.38) increase in county-level life expectancy among men and women, respectively, in the lowest income quartile. Estimates for life expectancies among county residents in the highest income quartile were smaller in magnitude and not robust to covariate adjustment (men: 0.10-year [95% CrI, -0.02 to 0.22] increase; women: 0.08-year [95% CrI, -0.05 to 0.20] increase). Increasing social mobility in all counties to the value of the highest social mobility county was associated with decreases in the life expectancy gap between the highest and lowest income quartiles by 1.4 (95% CrI, 0.7-2.1) years for men and 1.1 (95% CrI, 0.5-1.6) years for women nationally, representing a 20% decrease.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, higher county-level social mobility was associated with smaller county-level gaps in life expectancy by income. These findings motivate further investigation of causal relationships between policies that shift social mobility and health outcomes.

Growth patterns of future orientation among maltreated youth: A prospective examination of the emergence of resilience

During adolescence, a positive outlook toward the future (i.e., future orientation) can protect youth from the risks conferred by childhood adversity. Research to date, however, has largely considered future orientation as a static attribute. Developmental systems perspectives suggest that future orientation, when considered across time, will exhibit dynamic trajectories with levels changing in response to the varying balance of risks and resources in youths' environments. Investigating the developmental course and consequences of future orientation is particularly germane to maltreated youth who may benefit from programs that target this protective mechanism. The present study tested hypotheses regarding the developmental course of future orientation, including the association of distinct future orientation trajectories with time-varying risk factors and resources, and the association of continuity and change in future orientation trajectories with young adult psychosocial functioning. Hypotheses were investigated with longitudinal (T1 M_age = 12.22, T2 M_age = 13.52, T3 M_age = 14.79, T4 M_age = 18.54), multireporter data from a nationally representative sample of maltreated youth (N = 1,461). Growth mixture modeling (GMM) identified three classes of growth trajectories in future orientation: high-persistent, low start/increasing, and high start/decreasing. Time-variant and -invariant risk factors and resources differentiated youths' future orientation trajectories. Youth in the high-persistent and low start/increasing trajectories were more likely to attain young adulthood developmental milestones-including independent living skills, social capital, employment, and higher weekly income. This study documents how an important component of resilient adaptation emerges and promotes positive outcomes among highly vulnerable youth. (PsycINFO Database Record

Reciprocal Effects of Positive Future Expectations, Threats to Safety, and Risk Behavior Across Adolescence

We examined the reciprocal relationships among positive future expectations, expected threats to future safety, depression, and individual substance use and delinquency using 4 waves of data (N = 248-338) from African American and Latino adolescent male participants in the Chicago Youth Development Study. Individual positive future expectations and expected threats to safety were assessed at each wave and modeled as latent constructs. Individual substance use and delinquency were assessed at each wave and represented as ordinal variables ranging from low to high. Categorical autoregressive cross-lagged structural models were used to examine the hypothesized reciprocal relationships between both aspects of future expectations construct and risk behavior across adolescence. Analyses show that future expectations has important effects on youth substance use and involvement in delinquency, both of which in turn decrease positive expectations and increase expectation of threats to future safety across adolescence. Similarly, low positive expectations for the future continued to predict increased substance use and involvement in delinquency. The expected threats to safety construct was significantly correlated with delinquency within time. These effects are observed across adolescence after controlling for youth depression and race. Findings support the reciprocal effects hypothesis of a negative reinforcing cycle in the relationships between future expectations and both substance use and involvement in delinquent behavior across adolescence. The enduring nature of these relationships underscores the importance of future expectation as a potential change mechanism for intervention and prevention efforts to promote healthy development; vulnerable racial and ethnic minority male adolescents may especially benefit from such intervention.

Assessing future expectations of low-income minority young men: Survival-threats and positive expectations

Future expectations, a subset of overall orientation, represent youths' most realistic appraisals of future outcomes, and has been demonstrated to be associated with a range of health risk behaviors and wellbeing. The current study extends previous measurement efforts to operationalize and measure future expectations by estimating a multidimensional model of future expectations encompassing both positive and survival-based expectations, and using longitudinal data to test the consistency of these constructs over time. The current work uses data from six waves of the Chicago Youth Development Study (n=338), a sample of African American and Latino young men from low income neighborhoods in an urban center, to test a hypothesized multidimensional structure of future expectations across adolescence. Test retest confirmatory factor analyses from six waves of data covering the mean age range of 12 to 19 years reveal good model fit for the hypothesized multidimensional model of future expectations at each wave. Strong measurement invariance based on race/ethnicity is established for the multidimensional model. Implications for a latent construct approach to future expectations with low-income racial/ethnic minority young men are discussed.

Promoting Positive Future Expectations During Adolescence: The Role of Assets

Positive future expectations can facilitate optimal development and contribute to healthier outcomes for youth. Researchers suggest that internal resources and community-level factors may influence adolescent future expectations, yet little is known about the processes through which these benefits are conferred. The present study examined the relationship between contribution to community, neighborhood collective efficacy, purpose, hope and future expectations, and tested a mediation model that linked contribution to community and collective efficacy with future expectations through purpose and hope in a sample of 7th grade youth (N = 196; Mage = 12.39; 60 % female; 40 % African American; 71 % economically disadvantaged). Greater collective efficacy and contribution to community predicted higher levels of hope and purpose. Higher levels of hope and purpose predicted more positive future expectations. Contribution to community and neighborhood collective efficacy indirectly predicted future expectations via hope. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.

The impact of future expectations on adolescent sexual risk behavior

Rates of STIs, HIV, and pregnancy remain high among adolescents in the US, and recent approaches to reducing sexual risk have shown limited success. Future expectations, or the extent to which one expects an event to actually occur, may influence sexual risk behavior. This prospective study uses longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (n = 3,205 adolescents; 49.8% female) to examine the impact of previously derived latent classes of future expectations on sexual risk behavior. Cox regression and latent growth models were used to determine the effect of future expectations on age at first biological child, number of sexual partners, and inconsistent contraception use. The results indicate that classes of future expectations were uniquely associated with each outcome. The latent class reporting expectations of drinking and being arrested was consistently associated with the greatest risks of engaging in sexual risk behavior compared with the referent class, which reported expectations of attending school and little engagement in delinquent behaviors. The class reporting expectations of attending school and drinking was associated with having greater numbers of sexual partners and inconsistent contraception use but not with age at first biological child. The third class, defined by expectations of victimization, was not associated with any outcome in adjusted models, despite being associated with being younger at the birth of their first child in the unadjusted analysis. Gender moderated specific associations between latent classes and sexual risk outcomes. Future expectations, conceptualized as a multidimensional construct, may have a unique ability to explain sexual risk behaviors over time. Future strategies should target multiple expectations and use multiple levels of influence to improve individual future expectations prior to high school and throughout the adolescent period.

Early parenting: the roles of maltreatment, trauma symptoms, and future expectations

The psychosocial determinants of early parenting are still not well understood. The current study used data on 115 girls in the Capella Project, who were followed longitudinally for the first 18 years of life. Potential predictors of early parenting assessed were child maltreatment, trauma symptoms, and girls' expectations for their socioeconomic outcomes. Cox regression survival analyses were conducted to predict time to the birth of first child. Significant unique predictors of early parenting included neglect, anxiety, low depression, and low expectations of going to college. Practice and research implications of these findings include the importance of neglect for risk of early parenting, the importance of ongoing trauma symptoms in youth, and the potentially protective influence of expectations of going to college.

Associations of adolescent hopelessness and self-worth with pregnancy attempts and pregnancy desire

OBJECTIVES

We examined the associations of pregnancy desire (ambivalence or happiness about a pregnancy in the next year) and recent pregnancy attempts with hopelessness and self-worth among low-income adolescents.

METHODS

To evaluate independent associations among the study variables, we conducted gender-stratified multivariable logistic regression analyses with data derived from 2285 sexually experienced 9- to 18-year-old participants in the Mobile Youth Survey between 2006 and 2009.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven percent of youths reported a desire for pregnancy and 9% reported pregnancy attempts. In multivariable analyses, hopelessness was positively associated and self-worth was negatively associated with pregnancy attempts among both female and male youths. Hopelessness was weakly associated (P = .05) with pregnancy desire among female youths.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative association of self-worth and the positive association of hopelessness with pregnancy attempts among young men as well as young women and the association of hopelessness with pregnancy desire among young women raise questions about why pregnancy is apparently valued by youths who rate their social and cognitive competence as low and who live in an environment with few options for material success.

Critical hopefulness: a person-centered analysis of the intersection of cognitive and emotional empowerment

Leaders in struggles for social justice agree on the importance and the difficulty of maintaining hopefulness while developing critical awareness of social issues. Research has indicated that the analogous components of psychological empowerment (emotional and cognitive) often do not co-vary across populations. This study used a person-centered analytic approach, latent class analysis, to identify subpopulations of participants (n = 1,322) according to the cognitive and emotional components of psychological empowerment. Four distinct sub-groups emerged: those who were relatively (1) critical but alienated, (2) uncritical but hopeful, (3) uncritical and alienated, or (4) critical and hopeful. These clusters were then examined for demographic differences and relationships with a set of conceptually relevant variables including social capital, psychological sense of community, openness, organizational participation and mental wellbeing. Results shed light on the complexity of empowerment processes and yield implications for ongoing community research and action.

Examining patterns of political, social service, and collaborative involvement of religious congregations: a latent class and transition analysis

This investigation examines typologies of congregations based on patterns of congregational political and social service activities and collaborative partners. Based on a latent class analysis of a national random sample of 2,153 congregations, results indicated four distinct types of congregations with unique patterns of political, social service, and collaborative partnerships labeled: (a) Active, (b) Not Active, (c) Social Service Not Political, and (d) Political Not Social Service. Moreover, congregational characteristics such as religious tradition and clergy characteristics predicted membership in certain types. A latent transition analysis using an additional 262 congregations revealed distinct patterns of how congregations changed types across a nine year period. Results showed both congregational continuity (e.g., Not Active congregations remained Not Active) and change (e.g., Active congregations were likely to change type membership). This study advances congregational research by examining congregational types, what predicts certain types, and how congregations change types across time. Implications for future research and partnership with religious congregations also are discussed.