North American terrestrial CO2 uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions: toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget

Exploring soil nitrogen and sulfur dynamics: implications for greenhouse gas emissions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and disturbances caused by human activity. To better understand the interactions between soil nitrogen and sulfur cycles and human activities on the plateau, the distribution characteristics of soil nitrogen and sulfur density and their influencing factors for three soil layers in Machin County at depths of 0-20 cm, 0-100 cm, and 0-180 cm are discussed in this paper. The results indicated that at depths of 0-180 cm, soil nitrogen density in Machin County varied between 1.36 and 16.85 kg/m2, while sulfur density ranged from 0.37 to 4.61 kg/m2. The effects of three factors-geological background, land use status, and soil type-on soil nitrogen and sulfur density were all highly significant (p < 0.01). Specifically, natural factors such as soil type and geological background, along with anthropogenic factors including land use practices and grazing intensity, were identified as decisive in causing spatial variations in soil nitrogen and sulfur density. Machin County on the Tibetan Plateau exhibits natural nitrogen and sulfur sinks; However, it is crucial to monitor the emissions of N2O and SO2 into the atmosphere from areas with high external nitrogen and sulfur inputs and low fertility retention capacities, such as bare land. On this basis, changes in the spatial and temporal scales of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles in soils and their source-sink relationships remain the focus of future research.

Net greenhouse gas balance in U.S. croplands: How can soils be part of the climate solution?

Agricultural soils play a dual role in regulating the Earth's climate by releasing or sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in soil organic carbon (SOC) and emitting non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4 ). To understand how agricultural soils can play a role in climate solutions requires a comprehensive assessment of net soil GHG balance (i.e., sum of SOC-sequestered CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions) and the underlying controls. Herein, we used a model-data integration approach to understand and quantify how natural and anthropogenic factors have affected the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of the net soil GHG balance in U.S. croplands during 1960-2018. Specifically, we used the dynamic land ecosystem model for regional simulations and used field observations of SOC sequestration rates and N2 O and CH4 emissions to calibrate, validate, and corroborate model simulations. Results show that U.S. agricultural soils sequestered13.2 ± 1.16 $$ 13.2\pm 1.16 $$ Tg CO2 -C year-1 in SOC (at a depth of 3.5 m) during 1960-2018 and emitted0.39 ± 0.02 $$ 0.39\pm 0.02 $$ Tg N2 O-N year-1 and0.21 ± 0.01 $$ 0.21\pm 0.01 $$ Tg CH4 -C year-1 , respectively. Based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon), the estimated national net GHG emission rate from agricultural soils was122.3 ± 11.46 $$ 122.3\pm 11.46 $$ Tg CO2 -eq year-1 , with the largest contribution from N2 O emissions. The sequestered SOC offset ~28% of the climate-warming effects resulting from non-CO2 GHG emissions, and this offsetting effect increased over time. Increased nitrogen fertilizer use was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in net GHG emissions during 1960-2018, explaining ~47% of total changes. In contrast, reduced cropland area, the adoption of agricultural conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage), and rising atmospheric CO2 levels attenuated net GHG emissions from U.S. croplands. Improving management practices to mitigate N2 O emissions represents the biggest opportunity for achieving net-zero emissions in U.S. croplands. Our study highlights the importance of concurrently quantifying SOC-sequestered CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions for developing effective agricultural climate change mitigation measures.

An abrupt shift in gross primary productivity over Eastern China-Mongolia and its inter-model diversity in land surface models

The terrestrial ecosystem in East Asia mainly consists of semi-arid regions that are sensitive to climate change. Therefore, gross primary productivity (GPP) in East Asia could be highly variable and vulnerable to climate change, which can significantly affect the local carbon budget. Here, we examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of GPP variability in East Asia and its relationship with climate factors over the last three decades. We detect an abrupt decrease in GPP over Eastern China-Mongolia region around the year 2000. This is attributed to an abrupt decrease in precipitation associated with the phase shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We also evaluate the reproducibility of offline land surface models to simulate these abrupt changes. Of the twelve models, eight were able to simulate this abrupt response, while the others failed due to the combination of an exaggerated CO2 fertilization effect and an underrated climate impact. For accurate prediction, it is necessary to improve the sensitivity of the GPP to changes in CO2 concentrations and the climate system.

Current investigations on global N2O emissions and reductions: Prospect and outlook

Global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions merit scrutiny, because N2O is the third most important greenhouse gas for global warming and the predominant ozone-depleting substance in this century. Here we recapitulate global natural and anthropogenic N2O sources, comprehensively depict global sectoral human-induced N2O emissions by country, thoroughly survey all existing approaches for mitigating human-induced N2O emissions, preview the economic costs and social benefits from abating N2O emissions, and summarize roadblocks for achieving its emission reductions. From 1970 to 2018, the annual global anthropogenic N2O emissions increased by 64%-about 3.6 teragrams (Tg); agricultural sources primarily accounted for 78% of this increment. We find the social benefits from reducing N2O emissions override the economic costs for abatements, only except precision farming for agricultural sources and replacement by Xe for anesthetic, thus justifying the motivation for crafting policies to limit its emissions. Net zero N2O emissions cannot be achieved via applying current technologies and breeding N2O-reducing microbes is a potential method to accrue N2O sinks.

Global water use efficiency saturation due to increased vapor pressure deficit

The ratio of carbon assimilation to water evapotranspiration (ET) of an ecosystem, referred to as ecosystem water use efficiency (WUEeco), is widely expected to increase because of the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (Ca). However, little is known about the interactive effects of rising Ca and climate change on WUEeco. On the basis of upscaled estimates from machine learning methods and global FLUXNET observations, we show that global WUEeco has not risen since 2001 because of the asymmetric effects of an increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which depressed photosynthesis and enhanced ET. An undiminished ET trend indicates that rising temperature and VPD may play a more important role in regulating ET than declining stomatal conductance. Projected increases in VPD are predicted to affect the future coupling of the terrestrial carbon and water cycles.

Using the atmospheric CO2 growth rate to constrain the CO2 flux from land use and land cover change since 1900

We explore the ability of the atmospheric CO₂ record since 1900 to constrain the source of CO₂ from land use and land cover change (hereafter "land use"), taking account of uncertainties in other terms in the global carbon budget. We find that the atmospheric constraint favors land use CO₂ flux estimates with lower decadal variability and can identify potentially erroneous features, such as emission peaks around 1960 and after 2000, in some published estimates. Furthermore, we resolve an offset in the global carbon budget that is most plausibly attributed to the land use flux. This correction shifts the mean land use flux since 1900 across 20 published estimates down by 0.35 PgC year^-1 to 1.04 ± 0.57 PgC year^-1 , which is within the range but at the low end of these estimates. We show that the atmospheric CO₂ record can provide insights into the time history of the land use flux that may reduce uncertainty in this term and improve current understanding and projections of the global carbon cycle.

Integrating major agricultural practices into the TRIPLEX-GHG model v2.0 for simulating global cropland nitrous oxide emissions: Development, sensitivity analysis and site evaluation

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from croplands are one of the most important greenhouse gas sources while the estimation of which remains large uncertainties globally. To simulate N₂O emissions from global croplands, the process-based TRIPLEX-GHG model v2.0 was improved by coupling the major agricultural activities. Sensitivity experiment was used to measure the impact of the integrated processes to modeled N₂O emission found chemical N fertilization have the highest relative effect sizes. While the coefficient of the NO₃^- consumption rate for denitrification (COE_dNO3), controlling the first step of the denitrification process was identified to be the most sensitive parameter based on sensitivity analysis of model parameters. The model performed well when simulating the magnitude of the daily N₂O emissions for 39 calibration sites and the continental mean of the parameters were used to producing reasonable estimations for the means of the measured daily N₂O fluxes (R² = 0.87, slope = 1.07) and emission factors (EFs, R² = 0.70, slope = 0.72) during the experiment periods. The model reliability was further confirmed by model validation. General trend of modeled daily N₂O emissions were reasonably consistent with the observations of selected validated sites. In addition, high correlations between the results of modeled and observed mean N₂O emissions (R² = 0.86, slope = 0.82) and EFs (R² = 0.66, slope = 0.83) from 68 validation sites were obtained. Further improvement on more detailed estimations for the variation of the environmental factors, management effects as well as accurate model input model driving data are required to reduce the uncertainties of model simulations. Consequently, our simulation results demonstrate that the TRIPLEX-GHG model v2.0 can reliably estimate N₂O emissions from various croplands at the global scale, which contributes to closing global N₂O budget and sustainable development of agriculture.

Regional and seasonal partitioning of water and temperature controls on global land carbon uptake variability

Global fluctuations in annual land carbon uptake (NEE_IAV) depend on water and temperature variability, yet debate remains about local and seasonal controls of the global dependences. Here, we quantify regional and seasonal contributions to the correlations of globally-averaged NEE_IAV against terrestrial water storage (TWS) and temperature, and respective uncertainties, using three approaches: atmospheric inversions, process-based vegetation models, and data-driven models. The three approaches agree that the tropics contribute over 63% of the global correlations, but differ on the dominant driver of the global NEE_IAV, because they disagree on seasonal temperature effects in the Northern Hemisphere (NH, >25°N). In the NH, inversions and process-based models show inter-seasonal compensation of temperature effects, inducing a global TWS dominance supported by observations. Data-driven models show weaker seasonal compensation, thereby estimating a global temperature dominance. We provide a roadmap to fully understand drivers of global NEE_IAV and discuss their implications for future carbon–climate feedbacks.

The dominant driver of variations in global land carbon sink remains unclear. Here the authors show that the seasonal compensation of temperature effects on land carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere could induce a global water dominance.

Improving global gross primary productivity estimation by fusing multi-source data products

A reliable estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial vegetation is essential for both making decisions to address global climate change and understanding the global carbon balance. The lack of consistency in global terrestrial GPP estimates across various products leads to great uncertainty. In this study, we improve the quantification of global gross primary productivity by integrating multiple source GPP products without using any prior knowledge through the Bayesian-based Three-Cornered Hat (BTCH) method to generate a new weighted GPP data set. The fusion results demonstrate the superiority of weighted GPP, which greatly reduces the random error of individual datasets and fully takes advantage of the characteristics of multi-source data products. The weighted dataset can largely reproduce the interannual variation of regional GPP. Overall, the merging scheme based on the BTCH method can effectively generate a new GPP dataset that integrates information from multiple products and provides new ideas for GPP estimation on a global scale.

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2

The global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing^1-3, offsetting roughly a third of anthropogenic CO₂ released into the atmosphere each decade¹, and thus serving to slow⁴ the growth of atmospheric CO₂. It has been suggested that a CO₂-induced long-term increase in global photosynthesis, a process known as CO₂ fertilization, is responsible for a large proportion of the current terrestrial carbon sink^4-7. The estimated magnitude of the historic increase in photosynthesis as result of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies and terrestrial biosphere models^7-13. Here we quantify the historic effect of CO₂ on global photosynthesis by identifying an emergent constraint^14-16 that combines terrestrial biosphere models with global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO₂ fertilization increased global annual photosynthesis by 11.85 ± 1.4%, or 13.98 ± 1.63 petagrams carbon (mean ± 95% confidence interval) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global photosynthesis to CO₂, and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

Would the obtainable gross primary productivity (GPP) products stand up? A critical assessment of 45 global GPP products

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a vital variable of the global carbon cycle, but the quantification of global GPP is subject to significant uncertainty due to the lack of direct observations at a global scale. Here, we evaluated and compared 45 GPP products in terms of their applicability to different vegetation types at various spatiotemporal scales. The results show that 44 GPP products and obsGPP (Model Tree Ensemble GPP derived from observations and named obsGPP) have similar global patterns with correlation coefficients greater than 0.8 except for NGT, where GOSIF, RS, and BESS are prominent. GPP products have the greatest variation in Suriname, with a mean 75th and 25th percentile difference value of 0.4748 (normalized), and we recommend RS, SDGVM and LPJ-wsl as they provide GPP estimates close to the average GPP. In terms of seasonal estimations, considerable disagreement occurs among the GPP products in winter, with a range from 118.76 to 314.95 gC/m²/season, among which JULES has the closest GPP value to the average GPP estimation. For studies concerning vegetation types preference is given to the LUE average GPP. The 45 GPP products are more consistent on grasslands but, have obvious differences for savannas. All GPP products have their own specific spatiotemporal scales, such as global or national scales or different seasons and different vegetation types (forest, grasslands, etc.). This study provides guidelines for selecting GPP products.

Global positive gross primary productivity extremes and climate contributions during 1982-2016

Gross primary production (GPP) quantifies the photosynthetic uptake of carbon by the terrestrial ecosystem. Positive GPP extremes represent the potential capacity of the terrestrial ecosystem to uptake carbon dioxide. Studying the positive GPP extreme is vital for the global carbon cycle and mitigation of global warming. With increasing climate extreme events, many kinds of research focus on studying negative GPP and the negative impact of climatic extremes on GPP. There is still a lack of research on positive GPP extremes and whether climatic extremes could be beneficial to global carbon uptake. In this study, we used daily Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) to simulate GPP of the global terrestrial ecosystem during 1982-2016 and combined TRENDY models to detect positive GPP extremes and investigate the effects of climate extremes on GPP. We found the results of the TRENDY models have large differences in some areas of the globe, and the BEPS model driven by remote sensing data could be more suitable for simulating the long-term time series of global terrestrial GPP. Compared to other plant functional types, grasslands contributed the most to positive GPP extremes, accounting for approximately 41.6% (TRENDY) and 34.8% (BEPS) of the global positive GPP extremes. The probabilities of positive GPP extremes caused by positive precipitation extremes were significantly higher than those caused by temperature and radiation in most areas of the globe, indicating that sufficient precipitation (not a flood) would boost the carbon uptake ability of the global terrestrial ecosystem to form positive GPP extremes. On the contrary, the partial correlation coefficients between temperature and GPP were negative in most areas of globe, suggesting that global warming will not be conducive to carbon uptake of the terrestrial ecosystem. This study may provide new knowledge on the global positive GPP extremes.

Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Plant Productivity Over Recent Decades Based on Three Global Products

Variability in climate exerts a strong influence on vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP), and therefore has a large impact on the land carbon sink. However, no direct observations of global GPP exist, and estimates rely on models that are constrained by observations at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we assess the consistency in GPP from global products which extend for more than three decades; two observation-based approaches, the upscaling of FLUXNET site observations (FLUXCOM) and a remote sensing derived light use efficiency model (RS-LUE), and from a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TRENDYv6). At local scales, we find high correlations in annual GPP among the products, with exceptions in tropical and high northern latitudes. On longer time scales, the products agree on the direction of trends over 58% of the land, with large increases across northern latitudes driven by warming trends. Further, tropical regions exhibit the largest interannual variability in GPP, with both rainforests and savannas contributing substantially. Variability in savanna GPP is likely predominantly driven by water availability, although temperature could play a role via soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. There is, however, no consensus on the magnitude and driver of variability of tropical forests, which suggest uncertainties in process representations and underlying observations remain. These results emphasize the need for more direct long-term observations of GPP along with an extension of in situ networks in underrepresented regions (e.g., tropical forests). Such capabilities would support efforts to better validate relevant processes in models, to more accurately estimate GPP.

Enhanced regional terrestrial carbon uptake over Korea revealed by atmospheric CO2 measurements from 1999 to 2017

Understanding changes in terrestrial carbon balance is important to improve our knowledge of the regional carbon cycle and climate change. However, evaluating regional changes in the terrestrial carbon balance is challenging due to the lack of surface flux measurements. This study reveals that the terrestrial carbon uptake over the Republic of Korea has been enhanced from 1999 to 2017 by analyzing long-term atmospheric CO₂ concentration measurements at the Anmyeondo Station (36.53°N, 126.32°E) located in the western coast. The influence of terrestrial carbon flux on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (ΔCO₂ ) is estimated from the difference of CO₂ concentrations that were influenced by the land sector (through easterly winds) and the Yellow Sea sector (through westerly winds). We find a significant trend in ΔCO₂ of -4.75 ppm per decade (p < .05) during the vegetation growing season (May through October), suggesting that the regional terrestrial carbon uptake has increased relative to the surrounding ocean areas. Combined analysis with satellite measured normalized difference vegetation index and gross primary production shows that the enhanced carbon uptake is associated with significant nationwide increases in vegetation and its production. Process-based terrestrial model and inverse model simulations estimate that regional terrestrial carbon uptake increases by up to 18.9 and 8.0 Tg C for the study period, accounting for 13.4% and 5.7% of the average annual domestic carbon emissions, respectively. Atmospheric chemical transport model simulations indicate that the enhanced terrestrial carbon sink is the primary reason for the observed ΔCO₂ trend rather than anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric circulation changes. Our results highlight the fact that atmospheric CO₂ measurements could open up the possibility of detecting regional changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle even where anthropogenic emissions are not negligible.

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity

In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought. We find regional asymmetries in summer ecosystem carbon fluxes: increased (reduced) sink in the northern (southern) areas affected by drought. These asymmetries can be explained by distinct legacy effects of spring growth and of water-use efficiency dynamics mediated by vegetation composition, rather than by distinct ecosystem responses to summer heat/drought. The asymmetries in carbon and water exchanges during spring and summer 2018 suggest that future land-management strategies could influence patterns of summer heat waves and droughts under long-term warming.

State of the science in reconciling top-down and bottom-up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget

Robust estimates of CO₂ budget, CO₂ exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: "top-down" atmospheric inversions and "bottom-up" biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere-biosphere CO₂ exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO₂ budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO₂ budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO₂ budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO₂ budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO₂ budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink-source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top-down and bottom-up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO₂ budgets.

Nitrogen addition increased CO2 uptake more than non-CO2 greenhouse gases emissions in a Moso bamboo forest

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition affects the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of ecosystems through the net atmospheric CO₂ exchange and the emission of non-CO₂ GHGs (CH₄ and N₂O). We quantified the effects of N deposition on biomass increment, soil organic carbon (SOC), and N₂O and CH₄ fluxes and, ultimately, the net GHG budget at ecosystem level of a Moso bamboo forest in China. Nitrogen addition significantly increased woody biomass increment and SOC decomposition, increased N₂O emission, and reduced soil CH₄ uptake. Despite higher N₂O and CH₄ fluxes, the ecosystem remained a net GHG sink of 26.8 to 29.4 megagrams of CO₂ equivalent hectare^-1 year^-1 after 4 years of N addition against 22.7 hectare^-1 year^-1 without N addition. The total net carbon benefits induced by atmospheric N deposition at current rates of 30 kilograms of N hectare^-1 year^-1 over Moso bamboo forests across China were estimated to be of 23.8 teragrams of CO₂ equivalent year^-1.

Tropical forest soils serve as substantial and persistent methane sinks

Although tropical forest soils contributed substantially global soil methane uptake, observations on soil methane fluxes in tropical forests are still sparse, especially in Southeast Asia, leading to large uncertainty in the estimation of global soil methane uptake. Here, we conducted two-year (from Sep, 2016 to Sep, 2018) measurements of soil methane fluxes in a lowland tropical forest site in Hainan island, China. At this tropical forest site, soils were substantial methane sink, and average annual soil methane uptake was estimated at 2.00 kg CH₄-C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. The seasonality of soil methane uptake showed strong methane uptake in the dry season (−1.00 nmol m⁻² s⁻¹) and almost neutral or weak soil methane uptake in the wet season (−0.24 nmol m⁻² s⁻¹). The peak soil methane uptake rate was observed as −1.43 nmol m⁻² s⁻¹ in February, 2018, the driest and coolest month during the past 24 months. Soil moisture was the dominant controller of methane fluxes, and could explain 94% seasonal variation of soil methane fluxes. Soil temperature could not enhance the explanation of seasonal variation of soil methane fluxes on the top of soil moisture. A positive relationship between soil methane uptake and soil respiration was also detected, which might indicate co-variation in activities of methanotroph and roots and/or microbes for soil heterotrophic respiration. Our study highlights that tropical forests in this region acted as a methane sink.

Weakened growth of cropland-N2 O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions

China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands; yet, the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N₂ O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N₂ O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here, we provide new data-driven estimates of cropland-N₂ O emissions across China in 1990-2014, compiled using a global cropland-N₂ O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey-based reconstruction of N-fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland-N₂ O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that China's annual cropland-N₂ O emissions increased on average by 11.2 Gg N/year² (p < .001) from 1990 to 2003, after which emissions plateaued until 2014 (2.8 Gg N/year² , p = .02), consistent with the output from an ensemble of process-based terrestrial biosphere models. The slowdown of the increase in cropland-N₂ O emissions after 2003 was pervasive across two thirds of China's sowing areas. This change was mainly driven by the nationwide reduction in N-fertilizer applied per area, partially due to the prevalence of nationwide technological adoptions. This reduction has almost offset the N₂ O emissions induced by policy-driven expansion of sowing areas, particularly in the Northeast Plain and the lower Yangtze River Basin. Our results underline the importance of high-resolution activity data and adoption of nonlinear model of N₂ O emission for capturing cropland-N₂ O emission changes. Improving the representation of policy interventions is also recommended for future projections.

Nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change under elevated nitrogen deposition

Biological nitrogen fixation can fuel CO₂ sequestration by forests but can also stimulate soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O), a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use a theoretical model to suggest that symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees could either mitigate (CO₂ sequestration outweighs soil N₂O emissions) or exacerbate (vice versa) climate change relative to non-fixing trees, depending on their nitrogen fixation strategy (the degree to which they regulate nitrogen fixation to balance nitrogen supply and demand) and on nitrogen deposition. The model posits that nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change globally relative to non-fixing trees by the radiative equivalent of 0.77 Pg C yr⁻¹ under nitrogen deposition rates projected for 2030. This value is highly uncertain, but its magnitude suggests that this subject requires further study and that improving the representation of biological nitrogen fixation in climate models could substantially decrease estimates of the extent to which forests will mitigate climate change.

The balance between CO₂ sequestration by forests and soil N₂O emissions is poorly constrained. Here, the authors use a theoretical model to demonstrate that symbiotic N₂-fixing trees can either mitigate climate change or exacerbate it relative to non-fixing trees.

Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO₂ fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr⁻¹ (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr⁻¹ (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions.

This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Dynamics of soil biogeochemical gas emissions shaped by remolded aggregate sizes and carbon configurations under hydration cycles

Changes in soil hydration status affect microbial community dynamics and shape key biogeochemical processes. Evidence suggests that local anoxic conditions may persist and support anaerobic microbial activity in soil aggregates (or in similar hot spots) long after the bulk soil becomes aerated. To facilitate systematic studies of interactions among environmental factors with biogeochemical emissions of CO₂ , N₂ O and CH₄ from soil aggregates, we remolded silt soil aggregates to different sizes and incorporated carbon at different configurations (core, mixed, no addition). Assemblies of remolded soil aggregates of three sizes (18, 12, and 6 mm) and equal volumetric proportions were embedded in sand columns at four distinct layers. The water table level in each column varied periodically while obtaining measurements of soil GHG emissions for the different aggregate carbon configurations. Experimental results illustrate that methane production required prolonged inundation and highly anoxic conditions for inducing measurable fluxes. The onset of unsaturated conditions (lowering water table) resulted in a decrease in CH₄ emissions while temporarily increasing N₂ O fluxes. Interestingly, N₂ O fluxes were about 80% higher form aggregates with carbon placement in center (anoxic) core compared to mixed carbon within aggregates. The fluxes of CO₂ were comparable for both scenarios of carbon sources. These experimental results highlight the importance of hydration dynamics in activating different GHG production and affecting various transport mechanisms about 80% of total methane emissions during lowering water table level are attributed to physical storage (rather than production), whereas CO₂ emissions (~80%) are attributed to biological activity. A biophysical model for microbial activity within soil aggregates and profiles provides a means for results interpretation and prediction of trends within natural soils under a wide range of conditions.

Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land-estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets

The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within-estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite-derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001-2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 10⁹ g N yr^-1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 10⁹ g N yr^-1) and buried (46 × 10⁹ g N yr^-1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 10⁹ g N yr^-1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50-60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf.

Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century

It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂, and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010-2099 attributable to climate-related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO₂, and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate-related changes along with rising atmospheric CO₂ together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

Methane and nitrous oxide exchange over a managed hay meadow

The methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) exchange of a temperate mountain grassland near Neustift, Austria, was measured during 2010-2012 over a time period of 22 months using the eddy covariance method. Exchange rates of both compounds at the site were low, with 97% of all half-hourly CH4 and N2O fluxes ranging between ±200 and ±50 ng m-2 s-1, respectively. The meadow acted as a sink for both compounds during certain time periods, but was a clear source of CH4 and N2O on an annual timescale. Therefore, both gases contributed to an increase of the global warming potential (GWP), effectively reducing the sink strength in terms of CO2 equivalents of the investigated grassland site. In 2011, our best guess estimate showed a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink of -32 g CO2 equ. m-2 yr-1 for the meadow, whereby 55% of the CO2 sink strength of -71 g CO2m-2 yr-1 was offset by CH4 (N2O) emissions of 7 (32) g CO2 equ. m-2 yr-1. When all data were pooled, the ancillary parameters explained 27 (42)% of observed CH4 (N2O) flux variability, and up to 62 (76)% on shorter timescales in-between management dates. In the case of N2O fluxes, we found the highest emissions at intermediate soil water contents and at soil temperatures close to 0 or above 14 °C. In comparison to CO2, H2O and energy fluxes, the interpretation of CH4 and N2O exchange was challenging due to footprint heterogeneity regarding their sources and sinks, uncertainties regarding post-processing and quality control. Our results emphasize that CH4 and N2O fluxes over supposedly well-aerated and moderately fertilized soils cannot be neglected when evaluating the GHG impact of temperate managed grasslands.

Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), have affected the global climate. Land-based biological carbon mitigation strategies are considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization. However, to satisfy the growing demands for food, wood products, energy, climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation-all of which compete for increasingly limited quantities of biomass and land-the deployment of mitigation strategies must be driven by sustainable and integrated land management. If executed accordingly, through avoided emissions and carbon sequestration, biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon and 3-8% of estimated energy consumption, respectively, by 2050.