Health Convergence Between East and West Germany as Reflected in Long-Term Cause-Specific Mortality Trends: To What Extent was it Due to Reunification?

Forecasting the mortality burden of coronary heart disease and stroke in Germany: National trends and regional inequalities

BACKGROUND

The decline of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has slowed in many countries, including Germany. We examined the implications of this trend for future coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in Germany considering persistent mortality inequalities between former East and West Germany.

METHODS

We retrieved demographic and mortality data from 1991 to 2019 from the German Federal Statistical Office. Using a Bayesian age-period-cohort framework, we projected CHD and stroke mortality from 2019 to 2035, stratified by sex and German region. We decomposed annual changes in deaths into three components (mortality rates, population age structure and population size) and assessed regional inequalities with age-sex-standardized mortality ratios.

RESULTS

We confirmed that declines of CVD mortality rates in Germany will likely stagnate. From 2019 to 2035, we projected fewer annual CHD deaths (114,600 to 103,500 [95%-credible interval: 81,700; 134,000]) and an increase in stroke deaths (51,300 to 53,700 [41,400; 72,000]). Decomposing past and projected mortality, we showed that population ageing was and is offset by declining mortality rates. This likely reverses after 2030 leading to increased CVD deaths thereafter. Inequalities between East and West declined substantially since 1991 and are projected to stabilize for CHD but narrow for stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD deaths in Germany likely keep declining until 2030, but may increase thereafter due to population ageing if the reduction in mortality rates slows further. East-West mortality inequalities for CHD remain stable but may converge for stroke. Underlying risk factor trends need to be monitored and addressed by public health policy.

Sex differences in cause-specific mortality: regional trends in seven European countries, 1996-2019

BACKGROUND

Male excess mortality is mostly related to non-biological factors, and is thus of high social- and health-policy concern. Previous research has mainly focused on national patterns, while subnational disparities have been less in the focus. This study takes a spatial perspective on subnational patterns, covering seven European countries at the crossroad between Eastern and Western Europe.

METHODS

We analyze a newly gathered spatially detailed data resource comprising 228 regions with well-established demographic methods to assess the contribution of specific causes of death to the evolution of sex mortality differentials (SMDs) since the mid-1990s.

RESULTS

Our results show that declines in SMDs were mostly driven by a reduction of male excess mortality from cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms (about 50-60% and 20-30%, respectively). In Western Europe, trends in deaths from neoplasms contributed more to the reduction of SMDs, while among regions located in Eastern-Central Europe narrowing SMDs were mostly driven by changes in cardiovascular disease-related deaths. Moreover, men show up to three times higher mortality levels from external causes as compared to women in several analyzed regions. But in absolute terms, external deaths play only a minor role in explaining SMDs due to their small contribution to overall mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that examining the regional development of SMDs is useful for introducing targeted social and health policies in order to reduce and prevent mortality inequalities between women and men.

An econometric approach to aggregating multiple cardiovascular outcomes in German hospitals

OBJECTIVE

Development of an aggregate quality index to evaluate hospital performance in cardiovascular events treatment.

METHODS

We applied a two-stage regression approach using an accelerated failure time model based on variance weights to estimate hospital quality over four cardiovascular interventions: elective coronary bypass graft, elective cardiac resynchronization therapy, and emergency treatment for acute myocardial infarction. Mortality and readmissions were used as outcomes. For the estimation we used data from a statutory health insurer in Germany from 2005 to 2016.

RESULTS

The precision-based weights calculated in the first stage were higher for mortality than for readmissions. In general, teaching hospitals performed better in our ranking of hospital quality compared to non-teaching hospitals, as did private not-for-profit hospitals compared to hospitals with public or private for-profit ownership.

DISCUSSION

The proposed approach is a new method to aggregate single hospital quality outcomes using objective, precision-based weights. Likelihood-based accelerated failure time models make use of existing data more efficiently compared to widely used models relying on dichotomized data. The main advantage of the variance-based weights approach is that the extent to which an indicator contributes to the aggregate index depends on the amount of its variance.

Different health systems - Different mortality outcomes? Regional disparities in avoidable mortality across German-speaking Europe, 1992-2019

BACKGROUND

Evaluating the impact of health systems on premature mortality across different countries is a very challenging task, as it is hardly possible to disentangle it from the influence of contextual factors such as cultural differences. In this respect, the German-speaking area in Central Europe (Austria, Germany, South Tyrol and large parts of Switzerland) represents a unique 'natural experiment' setting: While being exposed to different health policies, they share a similar culture and language.

METHODS

To assess the impact of different health systems on mortality differentials across the German-speaking area, we relied on the concept of avoidable mortality. Based on official mortality statistics, we aggregated causes of death below age 75 that are either 1) amenable to health care or 2) avoidable through primary prevention. We calculated standardised death rates and constructed cause-deleted life tables for 9 Austrian, 96 German, 1 Italian and 5 Swiss regions from 1992 to 2019, harmonised according to the current territorial borders.

RESULTS

There are strong north-south and east-west gradients in amenable and preventable mortality across the studied regions to the advantage of the southwest. However, the Swiss regions still show significantly lower mortality levels than the neighbouring regions in southern Germany. Eliminating avoidable deaths from the life tables reduces spatial inequality in life expectancy in 2017/2019 by 30% for men and 28% for women.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficiency of health policies in assuring timely and adequate health care and in preventing risk-relevant behaviour has room for improvement in all German regions, especially in the north, west and east, and in eastern Austria as well.

Increased alcohol-specific mortality in Germany during COVID-19: State-level trends from 2010 to 2020

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic may have led to an increase in the alcohol-specific mortality. Against this backdrop, the aim of this report is to explore alcohol-specific mortality trends in Germany of the years 2010 to 2020.

METHOD

Alcohol-specific mortality data aggregated by sex, 5-year age groups and state were collected from the annual cause-of-death statistics and analysed descriptively by visual inspection.

RESULTS

The overall alcohol-specific mortality rate (age-standardised) has mainly decreased between 2010 and 2020. However, increased alcohol-specific mortality rates for the year 2020 compared to 2019 were found for both, women (+4.8%) and men (+5.5%), particularly in age groups between 40 and 69 years. Changes in alcohol-specific mortality rates differed between federated states, with steeper increases in East Germany.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Different mechanisms related to the increase in alcohol consumption, particularly among high-risk drinkers, and reduced resources in health care may have led to an increase in alcohol-specific mortality in Germany in 2020. Despite the recent decline in the alcohol-specific mortality in Germany, an increase in the death toll was observed in 2020.

Quantifying the contribution of smoking to regional mortality disparities in Germany: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Substantial regional variation in smoking behaviour in Germany has been well documented. However, little is known about how these regional differences in smoking affect regional mortality disparities. We aim to assess the contribution of smoking to regional mortality differentials in Germany over the last four decades.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study using official cause-specific mortality data by German Federal State aggregated into five macro-regions: East, North, South, West-I and West-II.

PARTICIPANTS

The entire population of Germany stratified by sex, age and region during 1980-2019.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Smoking-attributable fraction estimated using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method; life expectancy at birth before and after the elimination of smoking-attributable deaths.

RESULTS

In all macro-regions, the burden of past smoking has been declining among men but growing rapidly among women. The hypothetical removal of smoking-attributable deaths would eliminate roughly half of the contemporary advantage in life expectancy of the vanguard region South over the other macro-regions, apart from the East. In the latter, smoking only explains around a quarter (0.5 years) of the 2-year difference in male life expectancy compared with the South observed in 2019. Among women, eliminating smoking-attributable deaths would put the East in a more disadvantageous position compared with the South as well as the other macro-regions.

CONCLUSION

While regional differences in smoking histories explain large parts of the regional disparities in male mortality, they are playing an increasingly important role for female mortality trends and differentials. Health policies aiming at reducing regional inequalities should account for regional differences in past smoking behaviour.

Does the Mortality of Individuals with Severe Disabilities Contribute to the Persistent East-West Mortality Gap Among German Men?

After three decades since reunification male life expectancy in East Germany still lags behind that of West Germany. Unlike most of the prior studies focusing on the role of socioeconomic factors, this study aims at assessing the contribution of the population with severe disabilities to the persistent East-West male mortality gap. Our analysis is mainly based on the German Pension Fund data. It is restricted to men aged 30-59 receiving disability pension (DP). We estimate mortality indicators and compare trends among populations with or without DP. We use decomposition method to quantify the effects of changes in mortality and compositional changed in the prevalence of receiving DP on the East-West mortality difference. The analysis covers the period 1995-2013. The German Socioeconomic Panel data and Cox proportional hazard models are used to evaluate the regional differences in the risk of receiving DP. Our results suggest that both the higher prevalence of receiving DP in the East and the higher mortality level among men not receiving DP in the East explain the East-West gap. The mortality difference among those receiving DP is negligible and does not contribute much to it. The observed higher prevalence in receiving DP in the East is very likely to reflect the reality as we found no regional differences in the risk of transitioning to receiving DP. The disadvantageous position of the East can be explained by the post-reunification crisis which particularly hit young men in the 1990s, selective migration from East to West after reunification, and the higher proportion of the healthier foreign population living in the West.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09609-4.

The Short-Term Effects of European Integration on Mortality Convergence: A Case Study of European Union's 2004 Enlargement

Although European integration can be expected to result in mortality convergence (reduced mortality differences), a life expectancy divide persists in the European Union (EU) between the old Member States (OMS) in the west and the new Member States (NMS) in the east. Studies investigating the impact of European integration on mortality convergence are rare and did not consider regional differences. We examine the short-term effects of the 2004 enlargement on mortality convergence at the supranational, national, and subnational levels. Using sex-specific life expectancies for 23 Member States (1990-2017) and the NUTS 2 regions in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland for 1992-2016, we examined the trend in sigma and beta mortality convergence measures at the country and regional levels using joinpoint regression. We found no compelling evidence that EU accession influenced the process of mortality convergence between OMS and NMS, or within the three NMS, over the short term. While there was overall beta and sigma convergence at the national level during 1990-2017, no regional convergence showed, and the trends in convergence did not significantly change at the time of EU accession or soon after (2004-2007). The accession in 2004 did not visibly impact the overall process of mortality convergence over the short term, likely because of the greater influence of country and region-specific policies and characteristics. The interaction of Member State and regional contexts with the mechanisms of European integration requires further study. Future enlargement procedures should emphasise tailored support to ensure more equitable gains from European integration.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-021-09596-y.

Declining regional disparities in mortality in the context of persisting large inequalities in economic conditions: the case of Germany

BACKGROUND

Subnational regional mortality inequalities are large and appear to be mostly increasing within industrialized countries, although comparative studies across high-income countries are scarce. Germany is an important country to examine because it continues to experience considerable economic disparities between its federal states, in part resulting from its former division.

METHODS

We analyse state-level mortality in Germany utilizing data from a newly constructed regional database based on the methodology of the Human Mortality Database. We compare time trends (1991-2015) in the German state-level standard deviation in life expectancy to that of other large, wealthy countries and examine the association between mortality and economic inequalities at the regional level. Finally, using contour-decomposition methods, we investigate the degree to which age patterns of mortality are converging across German federal states.

RESULTS

Regional inequalities in life expectancy in Germany are comparatively low internationally, particularly among women, despite high state-level inequalities in economic conditions. These low regional mortality inequalities emerged 5-10 years after reunification. Mortality is converging over most ages between the longest- and shortest-living German state populations and across the former East-West political border, with the exception of an emerging East-West divergence in mortality among working-aged men.

CONCLUSIONS

The German example shows that large regional economic inequalities are not necessarily paralleled with large regional mortality disparities. Future research should investigate the factors that fostered the emergence of this unusual pattern in Germany.

[30 years of German unification: achievements and remaining differences in mortality trends by age and cause of death]

BACKGROUND

During the German division, two culturally very similar populations were exposed to very disparate socioeconomic conditions, which converged again after 1989. The impact of healthcare and life circumstances on mortality differences can better be estimated when cultural explanations are widely neglectable.

OBJECTIVES

For the first time, we analyse harmonised cause-of-death data explicitly by age. Hereby, we can show which ages or birth cohorts were particularly affected by German division and reunification in their mortality and to which causes of death this is attributable.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We harmonised the German cause-of-death statistics by applying an internationally standardised harmonisation process to account for differences and breaks in cause-of-death coding practices. We analysed the data using decomposition methods.

RESULTS

During the 1980s, east-west disparities were increasing as progress in the reduction of cardiovascular mortality was much stronger in West Germany, notably at older ages. After 1989, East Germany was able to catch up to the west in many areas. This is especially true for elderly persons and women, while east-west disparities are still visible today, particularly among male adult cohorts (1950-1970) strongly affected by the East German transition crisis.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower life expectancy of the East German population in the late 1980s was primarily caused by a slower pace of the cardiovascular revolution. The remaining present-day disparities are rather an aftermath of the East German transition crisis than direct aftereffects of the division.

Contrasts in alcohol-related mortality in Czechia and Lithuania: Analysis of time trends and educational differences

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Globally, Czechia and Lithuania are among the top-ranking countries in terms of high alcohol consumption. This study highlights notable contrasts in temporal trends in alcohol-related mortality and identifies country-specific patterns in educational differences.

DESIGN AND METHODS

The study uses harmonised cause-of-death series from the Human Cause of Death Database. Mortality disparities by education were assessed using census-linked mortality data. Directly standardised death rates were used to estimate levels of national and group-specific mortality. Relative and absolute mortality differences by education were assessed by range-type measures (Poisson regression mortality ratios and rate differences) and Gini-type measures.

RESULTS

Between 1994-1995 and 2016, the absolute difference between Czechia and Lithuania in terms of alcohol-related age-standardised death rates (per 1 000 000) decreased from 450 for males and 130 for females to 76 in males and 11 in females. In both countries, alcohol-related mortality was markedly higher among persons of lower education levels. Lithuanian males experienced the highest absolute inequalities measured by rate difference between the low and high educated (740 per million), while Lithuanian females showed the most pronounced relative inequalities (6.70-fold difference between low and high educated). The corresponding figures were less than half for Czechia.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Reducing educational disparities in alcohol-related mortality within both countries would have a substantial impact on overall levels. Policies aimed at targeting the lowest priced and illegal alcohols and reducing levels of harmful drinking should be a priority, especially in Lithuania.

Regional Disparity of Medical Resources and Its Effect on Mortality Rates in China

Objectives: The purpose of this study was two-fold. First, to empirically study the effects that medical resources (i.e., hospital, doctors, beds) have on the mortality rate in China. Second, to divide China into east, middle, and west regions, and empirically study the regional disparity of medical resources and its effect on mortality rates in China. Methodology and Data: This study utilized a panel data regression model to explore the effect medical resources have on the age-standardized mortality rate in China. The data came from the 2003-2017 China Statistical Yearbook compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results: Nationwide, hospitals, doctors, and beds had a significant negative correlation with the mortality rate. In the western region, hospitals, beds, and doctors had a significant negative correlation with the mortality rate. In China's middle and eastern regions, hospitals, beds, and doctors had no significant effect on the mortality rate. In China, increased hospitals, doctors, and beds significantly reduced the mortality rate. The distribution of medical resources in eastern, middle, and western China was unequal. More hospitals, beds, and doctors in the less developed western regions can more effectively alleviate the local mortality rate. In the middle and east regions, hospitals, beds, and doctors had no significant impact on the local mortality rate. Conclusion: First, China's overall medical resources are still inadequate and improving medical resources throughout the country could reduce the mortality rate. Second, due to the imbalanced distribution of medical resources in China, the Chinese government should implement more supportive policies for medical resources in the western region. At the same time, we should also actively develop the western region by improving local per capita GDP and reducing unemployment, so as to fundamentally reduce the local mortality rate.

30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: Regional health differences in Germany

Following the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, considerable effort was made to bring the living conditions and levels of social participation in the former East German federal states into line with the former West German federal states. As a result, differences in health between the East and the West diminished significantly, in many cases as early as the 1990s, examples being life expectancy and cardiovascular mortality. In regard to health behaviour, the overall tendency has also clearly been one of convergence. Thus, only very small differences can be observed today, for example in the use of tobacco or in the prevalence of obesity. Yet the results also highlight the insufficiency of regarding the remaining differences as a simple comparison between East and West. Instead, the focus should shift towards smaller-scale approaches that take regional differences in living conditions into account.

Socioeconomic differences in mortality among 27 million economically active Germans: a cross-sectional analysis of the German Pension Fund data

OBJECTIVES

To assess disparities in mortality by socioeconomic status in Germany.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

We analyse a large administrative dataset of the German Pension Fund (DRV), including 27 million person-years of exposure and 42 000 deaths in 2013. The data cover the economically active population, stratified by sex and by East and West.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Age-standardised mortality rates and Poisson regression mortality rate ratios (MRRs).

RESULTS

The risk of dying increases with decreasing income: the MRRs of the lowest to the highest income quintile are 4.66 (95% CI 4.48 to 4.85) among men and 3.06 (95% CI 2.90 to 3.23) among women. The impact of income attenuates after controlling for education and other explanatory variables, especially for females. In the fully controlled model for females, individual income is a weaker predictor of mortality, but there is a clear educational mortality gradient. In the fully controlled model, the MRRs of the unemployed to the employed are 2.09 (95% CI 2.03 to 2.15) among men and 2.01 (95% CI 1.92 to 2.10) among women. The risk of dying is around half as high among foreigners as among German citizens. The socioeconomic disparities are greater among East than West German men.

CONCLUSIONS

Low socioeconomic status is a major determinant of excess adult mortality in Germany. The persisting East-West differences in male adult mortality can be explained by the higher socioeconomic status of men living in the West, rather than by contextual differences between East and West. These differences can be further monitored using DRV data.

Socioeconomic disparities in life expectancy gains among retired German men, 1997-2016

Background

Although estimates of socioeconomic mortality disparities in Germany exist, the trends in these disparities since the 1990s are still unknown. This study examines mortality trends across socioeconomic groups since the late 1990s among retired German men aged 65 and above.

Methods

Large administrative data sets were used to estimate mortality among retired German men, grouped according to their working-life biographies. The data covered the years 1997–2016 and included more than 84.1 million person-years and 4.3 million deaths. Individual pension entitlements served as a measure of lifetime income. Changes in total life expectancy at age 65 over time were decomposed into effects of group-specific mortality improvements and effects of compositional change.

Results

Over the two decades studied, male mortality declined in all income groups in both German regions. As mortality improved more rapidly among higher status groups, the social gradient in mortality widened. Since 1997, the distribution of pension entitlements of retired East German men has shifted substantially downwards. As a result, the impact of the most disadvantaged group on total mortality has increased and has partly attenuated the overall improvement.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate that socioeconomic deprivation has substantial effects on levels of mortality in postreunification Germany. While East German retirees initially profited from the transition to the West German pension system, subsequent cohorts had to face challenges associated with the transition to the market economy. The results suggest that postreunification unemployment and status decline had delayed effects on old-age mortality in East Germany.