Ecotoxicology is not normal: A comparison of statistical approaches for analysis of count and proportion data in ecotoxicology

Ageing influences the toxicity of two innovative nanofertilizers to the soil invertebrates Enchytraeus crypticus and Folsomia candida

The increasing global food demand is threatening the sustainability of agrifood production systems. The intensification of agricultural practices, with inadequate use of pesticides and fertilizers, poses major challenges to the good functioning of agroecosystems and drastically degrades the soil quality. Nanotechnology is expected to optimize the current farming practices and mitigate some associated impacts. Layered double hydroxides (LDHs) are a class of nanomaterials with high potential for use in agricultural productions, mostly due to their sustained release of nutrients. Considering its novelty and lack of studies on the terrestrial ecosystem, it is essential to assess potential long-term harmful consequences to non-target organisms. Our study aimed to evaluate the effect of Zn-Al-NO3 LDH and Mg-Al-NO3 LDH ageing on the survival and reproduction of two soil invertebrate species Enchytraeus crypticus and Folsomia candida. We postulated that the toxicity of nanomaterials to soil invertebrates would change with time, such that the ageing of soil amendments would mediate their impacts on both species. Our results showed that the toxicity of LDHs was species-dependent, with Zn-Al-NO3 LDH being more toxic to E. crypticus, while Mg-Al-NO3 LDH affected more F. candida, especially in the last ageing period, where reproduction was the most sensitive biological parameter. The toxicity of both nanomaterials increased with ageing time, as shown by the decrease of the EC50 values over time. The influence of LDH dissolution and availability of Zn and Mg in the soil pore water was the main factor related to the toxicity, although we cannot rule out the influence of other structural constituents of LDHs (e.g., nitrates and aluminium). This study supports the importance of incorporating ageing in the ecotoxicity testing of nanomaterials, considering their slow release, as effects on soil organisms can change and lead to more severe impacts on the ecosystem functioning.

Introducing the No-Significant-Effect Concentration

The no-effect concentration (NEC) is the preferred threshold metric for single-species toxicity tests applied to derive safe concentration thresholds for contaminants in the environment for use in species sensitivity distributions. However, the NEC is only suitable when concentration-response (C-R) data exhibit a threshold response. We describe an alternative toxicity estimate, the no-significant-effect concentration (NSEC), which is better suited to C-R data for which the response is a monotonically decreasing function of concentration and no threshold effects are evident. We use a flexible, three-parameter sigmoidal function to describe the C-R relationship and detail both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to estimation and inference for the NSEC. While the NSEC is conceptually linked to the traditional no-observed-effect concentration (NOEC), it is a substantial improvement over the NOEC because it decouples the estimate from being directly dependent on the placement of treatment concentrations as well as admitting statements of precision of the resulting toxicity estimate. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2019-2028. © 2023 Commonwealth of Australia and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Toxicity of the 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine and Its Enantiomers to Daphnia magna after Isolation by Semipreparative Chromatography

MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine) is a chiral psychoactive recreational drug sold in illicit markets as racemate. Studies on the impact of MDMA on aquatic organisms are scarce. While enantioselectivity in toxicity in animals and humans has been reported, none is reported on aquatic organisms. This study aimed to investigate the ecotoxicological effects of MDMA and its enantiomers in Daphnia magna. For that, enantiomers (enantiomeric purity > 97%) were separated by liquid chromatography using a homemade semipreparative chiral column. Daphnids were exposed to three concentrations of (R,S)-MDMA (0.1, 1.0 and 10.0 µg L^-1) and two concentrations of (R)- and (S)-enantiomers (0.1 and 1.0 µg L^-1) over the course of 8 days. Morphophysiological responses were dependent on the substance form and daphnia development stage, and they were overall not affected by the (R)-enantiomer. Changes in swimming behaviour were observed for both the racemate and its enantiomers, but enantioselective effects were not observed. Reproductive or biochemical changes were not observed for enantiomers whereas a significant decrease in acetylcholinesterase and catalase activity was noted at the highest concentration of (R,S)-MDMA (10 µg L^-1). Overall, this study showed that sub-chronic exposure to MDMA racemate and its enantiomers can interfere with morphophysiological and swimming behaviour of D. magna. In general, the (R)-enantiomer demonstrated less toxicity than the (S)-enantiomer.

Antiparasitic potential of agrochemical fungicides on a non-target aquatic model (Daphnia × Metschnikowia host-parasite system)

Pesticides are a major anthropogenic threat to the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems, having the potential to affect non-target aquatic organisms and disrupt the processes in which they intervene. Important knowledge gaps have been recognised concerning the ecological effects of synthetic fungicides on non-target symbiotic aquatic fungi and the ecological processes where they intervene. The goal of this work was to assess the influence of three commonly used fungicides (myclobutanil, metalaxyl and cymoxanil), which differ in their mode of action, on a host (the crustacean Daphnia magna) × parasite (the yeast Metschnikowia bicuspidata) experimental model. Using a set of life history experiments, we evaluated the effect of each fungicide on the outcome of this relationship (disease) and on the fitness of both host and parasite. Contrasting results were observed: (i) cymoxanil and metalaxyl were overall innocuous to host and parasite at the tested concentrations, although host reproduction was occasionally reduced in the simultaneous presence of parasite and fungicide; (ii) on the contrary, myclobutanil displayed a clear antifungal effect, decreasing parasite prevalence and alleviating infection signs in the hosts. This antiparasitic effect of myclobutanil was further investigated with a follow-up experiment that manipulated the timing of application of the fungicide, to understand which stage of parasite development was most susceptible: while myclobutanil did not interfere in the early stages of infection, its antifungal activity was clearly observable at a later stage of the disease (by impairing the production of transmission stages of the parasite). More research is needed to understand the broader consequences of this parasite-clearance effect, especially in face of increasing evidence that parasites are ecologically more important than their cryptic nature might suggest.

Enantioselective Ecotoxicity of Venlafaxine in Aquatic Organisms: Daphnia and Zebrafish

Venlafaxine is a chiral antidepressant detected in aquatic compartments. It was recently included in the 3rd Watch List from the European Union. The present study aimed to investigate venlafaxine toxicity effects, targeting possible enantioselective effects, using two aquatic organisms, daphnia (Daphnia magna) and zebrafish (Danio rerio). Specimens were exposed to both racemate, (R,S)-venlafaxine (VEN), and to pure enantiomers. Acute assays with daphnia showed that up to 50 000 μg/L of the (R,S)-VEN induced no toxicity. Organisms were also exposed to sublethal concentrations (25-400 μg/L) of (R,S)-, (R)- and (S)-VEN, for 21 days. No significant effects on mortality, age at first reproduction, and size of the first clutch were observed. However, a decrease in fecundity was observed for both enantiomers at the highest concentration. Regarding zebrafish, the effects of venlafaxine on mortality, embryo development, behavior, biochemistry, and melanin pigmentation were investigated after 96 h of exposure to the range of 0.3-3000 μg/L. (R)-VEN significantly increased the percentage of malformations in comparison with (S)-VEN. Behavior was also enantiomer dependent, with a decrease in the total distance moved and an increase in avoidance behavior observed in organisms exposed to (R)-VEN. Despite the biochemical variations, no changes in redox homeostasis were observed. (R)-VEN also led to an increase in zebrafish pigmentation. The different susceptibility to venlafaxine and enantioselective effects were observed in zebrafish. Our results suggest that at environmental levels (R,S)-VEN and pure enantiomers are not expected to induce harmful effects in both organisms, but (R)-VEN increased malformations in zebrafish larvae, even at reported environmental levels. These results highlight the importance of including enantioselective studies for an accurate risk assessment of chiral pollutants. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:1851-1864. © 2022 SETAC.

Suitability of Selected Plant Species for Phytoremediation: A Case Study of a Coal Combustion Ash Landfill

Coal bottom and fly ash waste continue to be generated as a result of energy production from coal in the amount of about 750 million tonnes a year globally. Coal is the main source of energy in Poland, and about 338 million tonnes of combustion waste has already been landfilled. The aim of the research was to identify factors determining the Cd, Pb, Zn and Cu phytostabilisation by vegetation growing on a coal combustion waste landfill. Soil and shoots of the following plants were analysed: wood small-reed, European goldenrod, common reed; silver birch, black locust, European aspen and common oak. The influence of the location where the plants grew and the influence of the interaction between the two factors (species and location) were significant. The tree species were more effective at accumulating heavy metals than the herbaceous plants. European aspen had the highest Bioaccumulation Factor (BCF) for cadmium and zinc. A high capacity to accumulate these elements was also demonstrated by silver birch, and in the case of cadmium, by common oak. Accumulation of both lead and copper was low in all plants. The Translocation Factors (TF) indicated that the heavy metals were accumulated mainly in the roots. European aspen, silver birch and European goldenrod were shown to be most suitable for stabilization of the metals analysed in the research.

Effects of cadmium on the female reproductive axis of a Neotropical fish

Metals are one of the contaminants released from the increase of anthropic activities. They can be classified as endocrine disruptors once they can affect the reproductive parameters of different organisms. The aim of the study was to evaluate the potential effects of cadmium on regulatory reproduction axis (Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Gonadal-Liver, the HPGL axis) in females of Rhamdia quelen exposed to nominal concentrations of 0.1; 1; 10 and 100 μg.L^-1 of cadmium. After 15 days, tissues were collected for hormonal quantification, brain aromatase (cyp19a1b), hepatic vitellogenin (vtg) gene expression, and biomarkers analysis. Cadmium was quantified in water, gonad and liver samples. The plasma levels of estradiol, testosterone and gonad and hepatosomatic indexes did not changed after Cd exposure. The cyp19a1b was not different among the groups. Cadmium was detected at higher concentrations in the liver compared to the gonads. No genotoxicity was observed, only erythrocytes nuclear alterations. Metallothionein was reduced at 10 μg.L^-1 in the liver and 10 and 100 μg.L^-1 in the gonad. Hepatic superoxide dismutase activity increased and this can lead to a hydrogen peroxide increase, one of reactive oxygen species. This increase without a compensation of other enzymes of the antioxidant system can lead to lipoperoxidation, as occurred at 100 μg.L^-1. Hepatic vitellogenin gene expression increased as well as the injury index at 0,1 and 100 μg.L^-1. The tested cadmium concentrations have been found in the freshwater ecosystems and can affect the female reproductive regulation axis HPGL of the Neotropical species R. quelen.

How to use statistics to claim antagonism and synergism from binary mixture experiments

We review statistical approaches applicable for the analysis of data from binary mixture experiments, which are commonly used in pesticide science for evaluating antagonistic or synergistic effects. Specifically, two different situations are reviewed, one where every pesticide is only available at a single dose level and a mixture simply combines these doses, and one where the pesticides and their mixture are used at increasing doses. The former corresponds to using factorial designs whereas the latter corresponds to fixed-ratio designs. We consider dose addition and independent action as references for lack of antagonistic and synergistic effects. Data from factorial designs should be analyzed using two-way analysis of variance models whereas data from fixed-ratio designs should be analyzed using non-linear dose-response analysis. In most cases, independent action seems the more natural choice for factorial designs. In contrast, dose addition is more appropriate for fixed-ratio designs although dose addition is not equally compatible with all types of dose-response data. Fixed-ratio designs should be preferred as they allow validation of the assumed dose-response relationship and, consequently, provide much stronger claims about antagonistic and synergistic effects than factorial designs. Finally, it should be noted that, in any case, simple ways of summarizing pesticide mixture effects may come at the price of more or less restrictive modeling assumptions. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Harmful dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides impairs the feeding behavior of larval sheepshead minnows (Cyprinodon variegatus)

Research evaluating the toxicity of the harmful dinoflagellate Cochlodinium (a.k.a. Margalefidinium) polykrikoides has been dominated by acute bioassays while the sublethal effects remain less well understood. This study examined the sublethal effects of C. polykrikoides exposure on the feeding behavior of larval estuarine fish. Sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) larvae were used in feeding experiments which assessed the total consumption of zooplankton prey (i.e., Artemia nauplii) over defined time periods. Larvae exposed to intermediate concentrations (i.e., 10²  cells ml^-1 ) of clonal cultures of C. polykrikoides saw statistically significant reductions (range = 10%-81%) in the Artemia consumed compared to controls (i.e., filtered seawater, culture media or nontoxin producing dinoflagellate). These reductions were found independent of whether the larvae were fed or starved prior to experimentation. As these concentrations are similar to those typically found during mild blooms or at the periphery of dense blooms, these findings have significant implications for the feeding behavior of ichthyoplankton.

Application of the Closure Principle Computational Approach Test to Assess Ecotoxicological Field Studies: Comparative Analysis Using Earthworm Field Test Abundance Data

Field studies to determine the effects of chemicals on earthworm communities are generally conducted according to International Organization for Standardization standard 11268-3 (and later comments). However, statistical test procedures suggested in the guideline are frequently criticized, mainly for 2 reasons: 1) Earthworm abundances are count data and often do not fulfill requirements for multiple t tests (normal distribution and homogeneity of variance), and 2) the resulting toxicity metrics of multiple testing procedures (no/lowest-observed-effect concentrations [NOEC/LOEC]) fail to adequately detect the actual level of effects. Recently, a new method to overcome these shortcomings was presented by the introduction of the closure principle computational approach test (CPCAT). We applied this statistical method to assess chemical effects on abundance in a large dataset of 26 earthworm field studies (with up to 3 test chemical application rates) and an additional extended study with 6 application rates. A comparative analysis was provided considering results of well-established multiple testing approaches (Dunnett's test) with particular consideration of the degree of overdispersion found in these data. It was shown that the CPCAT detects substantially more effects in earthworm field tests as statistically significant than standard t test approaches. This lowered the LOEC/NOEC for many chemical treatments to control comparisons. As a consequence, the statistically detected NOECs/LOECs were often set at lower percentage deviations between control and chemical treatment. This is the first time the performance of the CPCAT has been assessed within a comprehensive analysis of earthworm field study data. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:1750-1760. © 2021 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Violating the normality assumption may be the lesser of two evils

When data are not normally distributed, researchers are often uncertain whether it is legitimate to use tests that assume Gaussian errors, or whether one has to either model a more specific error structure or use randomization techniques. Here we use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the pros and cons of fitting Gaussian models to non-normal data in terms of risk of type I error, power and utility for parameter estimation. We find that Gaussian models are robust to non-normality over a wide range of conditions, meaning that p values remain fairly reliable except for data with influential outliers judged at strict alpha levels. Gaussian models also performed well in terms of power across all simulated scenarios. Parameter estimates were mostly unbiased and precise except if sample sizes were small or the distribution of the predictor was highly skewed. Transformation of data before analysis is often advisable and visual inspection for outliers and heteroscedasticity is important for assessment. In strong contrast, some non-Gaussian models and randomization techniques bear a range of risks that are often insufficiently known. High rates of false-positive conclusions can arise for instance when overdispersion in count data is not controlled appropriately or when randomization procedures ignore existing non-independencies in the data. Hence, newly developed statistical methods not only bring new opportunities, but they can also pose new threats to reliability. We argue that violating the normality assumption bears risks that are limited and manageable, while several more sophisticated approaches are relatively error prone and particularly difficult to check during peer review. Scientists and reviewers who are not fully aware of the risks might benefit from preferentially trusting Gaussian mixed models in which random effects account for non-independencies in the data.

The Minimum Detectable Difference (MDD) Concept for Establishing Trust in Nonsignificant Results: A Critical Review

Current regulatory guidelines for pesticide risk assessment recommend that nonsignificant results should be complemented by the minimum detectable difference (MDD), a statistical indicator that is used to decide whether the experiment could have detected biologically relevant effects. We review the statistical theory of the MDD and perform simulations to understand its properties and error rates. Most importantly, we compare the skill of the MDD in distinguishing between true and false negatives (i.e., type II errors) with 2 alternatives: the minimum detectable effect (MDE), an indicator based on a post hoc power analysis common in medical studies; and confidence intervals (CIs). Our results demonstrate that MDD and MDE only differ in that the power of the MDD depends on the sample size. Moreover, although both MDD and MDE have some skill in distinguishing between false negatives and true absence of an effect, they do not perform as well as using CI upper bounds to establish trust in a nonsignificant result. The reason is that, unlike the CI, neither MDD nor MDE consider the estimated effect size in their calculation. We also show that MDD and MDE are no better than CIs in identifying larger effects among the false negatives. We conclude that, although MDDs are useful, CIs are preferable for deciding whether to treat a nonsignificant test result as a true negative, or for determining an upper bound for an unknown true effect. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2109-2123. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Alternatives to statistical decision trees in regulatory (eco-)toxicological bioassays

The goal of (eco-) toxicological testing is to experimentally establish a dose or concentration-response and to identify a threshold with a biologically relevant and probably non-random deviation from "normal". Statistical tests aid this process. Most statistical tests have distributional assumptions that need to be satisfied for reliable performance. Therefore, most statistical analyses used in (eco-)toxicological bioassays use subsequent pre- or assumption-tests to identify the most appropriate main test, so-called statistical decision trees. There are however several deficiencies with the approach, based on study design, type of tests used and subsequent statistical testing in general. When multiple comparisons are used to identify a non-random change against negative control, we propose to use robust testing, which can be generically applied without the need of decision trees. Visualization techniques and reference ranges also offer advantages over the current pre-testing approaches. We aim to promulgate the concepts in the (eco-) toxicological community and initiate a discussion for regulatory acceptance.

Should ecologists prefer model- over distance-based multivariate methods?

Ecological data sets often record the abundance of species, together with a set of explanatory variables. Multivariate statistical methods are optimal to analyze such data and are thus frequently used in ecology for exploration, visualization, and inference. Most approaches are based on pairwise distance matrices instead of the sites-by-species matrix, which stands in stark contrast to univariate statistics, where data models, assuming specific distributions, are the norm. However, through advances in statistical theory and computational power, models for multivariate data have gained traction. Systematic simulation-based performance evaluations of these methods are important as guides for practitioners but still lacking. Here, we compare two model-based methods, multivariate generalized linear models (MvGLMs) and constrained quadratic ordination (CQO), with two distance-based methods, distance-based redundancy analysis (dbRDA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). We studied the performance of the methods to discriminate between causal variables and noise variables for 190 simulated data sets covering different sample sizes and data distributions. MvGLM and dbRDA differentiated accurately between causal and noise variables. The former had the lowest false-positive rate (0.008), while the latter had the lowest false-negative rate (0.027). CQO and CCA had the highest false-negative rate (0.291) and false-positive rate (0.256), respectively, where these error rates were typically high for data sets with linear responses. Our study shows that both model- and distance-based methods have their place in the ecologist's statistical toolbox. MvGLM and dbRDA are reliable for analyzing species-environment relations, whereas both CQO and CCA exhibited considerable flaws, especially with linear environmental gradients.

Gonadal, body color, and genotoxic alterations in Lithobates catesbeianus tadpoles exposed to nonylphenol

Endocrine disrupting chemicals are one of the most important factors contributing to worldwide amphibian decline. The 4-nonylphenol (NP) is a degradation product of several compounds, such as detergents and pesticides, affecting the aquatic environment. Here, we test whether treatment with NP has an effect on developing ovarian tissue, nuclear abnormalities in erythrocytes, and body darkness in pre-metamorphic tadpoles of the bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus. Tadpoles were exposed for 14 days to three different concentrations of NP (1, 10, and 100 μg/L) besides the control group, which was maintained only with water. After determining body coloration, animals were euthanized and gonads and blood were collected and processed for histology and genotoxic analysis. Even though most animals were females, intersex tadpoles were observed in control and treated groups and there were no males in any group. The highest concentration of NP showed an increase in atretic oocytes, but the area corresponding to somatic compartment and early and late germ cells were not affected. Furthermore, all treated groups presented higher amount of nuclear abnormalities in erythrocytes and body darkening when compared with the control group. These results suggest that NP causes genetic damage and morphological alterations in L. catesbeianus tadpoles by disrupting oogenesis, inducing genotoxicity and increasing body coloration. Its effects on gonadal development could cause future impairments in reproduction, while its deleterious effects on genotoxicity and body pigmentation could be used as a biomarker of effect to this compound.

A Re-Evaluation of Chironomid Deformities as an Environmental Stress Response: Avoiding Survivorship Bias and Testing Noncontaminant Biological Factors

Larval deformities have been observed in chironomids, and are thought to be associated with aquatic contaminant exposure. However, in laboratory assays, deformities have not been linked with contaminants in the absence of potential confounding variables including mortality, which introduces a survivorship bias. There is also a paucity of data on noncontaminant causes. In addition, power analyses are rarely undertaken, meaning that effect sizes detectable are usually uncertain. We therefore aimed to clarify factors associated with deformities, by running survivorship bias-free (i.e., sublethal) assays, assessing contaminant (copper and imidacloprid) and noncontaminant (malnutrition) stressors, and considering natural biological (metamorphosis) factors in Chironomus tepperi. We included a posteriori power analyses for all tests. Our assays found no significant association between tested factors and deformity rate. Power analyses indicated that the stressor experiment had moderate power to detect deformity effects. The metamorphosis assay had relatively lower power (due to an unexpectedly high control deformity rate), highlighting the importance of power tests in these types of evaluations. These results, in conjunction with others recently published, raise doubts as to the causal effects of environmental stressors on deformity incidence. By avoiding survivorship bias, and by testing noncontaminant factors and statistical power, we present a more holistic methodology, to resolve ongoing uncertainty in this area. We also discuss possible future directions for chironomid deformity research, and concerns regarding survivorship bias in ecotoxicology. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1658-1667. © 2019 SETAC.

Equivalence analysis to support environmental safety assessment: Using nontarget organism count data from field trials with cisgenically modified potato

This paper considers the statistical analysis of entomological count data from field experiments with genetically modified (GM) plants. Such trials are carried out to assess environmental safety. Potential effects on nontarget organisms (NTOs), as indicators of biodiversity, are investigated. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) gives broad guidance on the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of GM plants. Field experiments must contain suitable comparator crops as a benchmark for the assessment of designated endpoints. In this paper, a detailed protocol is proposed to perform data analysis for the purpose of assessing environmental safety. The protocol includes the specification of a list of endpoints and their hierarchical relations, the specification of intended levels of data analysis, and the specification of provisional limits of concern to decide on the need for further investigation. The protocol emphasizes a graphical representation of estimates and confidence intervals for the ratio of mean abundances for the GM plant and its comparator crop. Interpretation relies mainly on equivalence testing in which confidence intervals are compared with the limits of concern. The proposed methodology is illustrated with entomological count data resulting from multiyear, multilocation field trials. A cisgenically modified potato line (with enhanced resistance to late blight disease) was compared to the original conventional potato variety in the Netherlands and Ireland in two successive years (2013, 2014). It is shown that the protocol encompasses alternative schemes for safety assessment resulting from different research questions and/or expert choices. Graphical displays of equivalence testing at several hierarchical levels and their interpretation are presented for one of these schemes. The proposed approaches should be of help in the ERA of GM or other novel plants.

The CPCAT as a novel tool to overcome the shortcomings of NOEC/LOEC statistics in ecotoxicology: a simulation study to evaluate the statistical power

Species reproduction is an important determinant of population dynamics. As such, this is an important parameter in environmental risk assessment. The closure principle computational approach test (CPCAT) was recently proposed as a method to derive a NOEC/LOEC for reproduction count data such as the number of juvenile Daphnia. The Poisson distribution used by CPCAT can be too restrictive as a model of the data-generating process. In practice, the generalized Poisson distribution could be more appropriate, as it allows for inequality of the population mean μ and the population variance σ 2 . It is of fundamental interest to explore the statistical power of CPCAT and the probability of determining a regulatory relevant effect correctly. Using a simulation, we varied between Poisson distribution ( μ = σ 2 ) and generalized Poisson distribution allowing for over-dispersion ( μ < σ 2 ) and under-dispersion ( μ > σ 2 ). The results indicated that the probability of detecting the LOEC/NOEC correctly was ≥ 0.8 provided the effect was at least 20% above or below the mean level of the control group and mean reproduction of the control was at least 50 individuals while over-dispersion was missing. Specifically, under-dispersion increased, whereas over-dispersion reduced the statistical power of the CPCAT. Using the well-known Hampel identifier, we propose a simple and straight forward method to assess whether the data-generating process of real data could be over- or under-dispersed.

Transgenerational Effects of Toxicants: An Extension of the Daphnia 21-day Chronic Assay?

The assessment of transgenerational effects should be incorporated in standard chronic toxicity protocols for the sake of a realistic extrapolation of contaminant effects to the population level. We propose a simple add-on to the standard 21-day chronic Daphnia magna assay, allowing the assessment of the reproductive performance of the offspring (F₁ generation) born from the first clutch of the parental (F₀) generation. The extended generational assay was performed simultaneously with the standard reproduction assay. With this design, we evaluated the lethal, reproductive, and transgenerational effects of four widespread and extensively used substances: a biocide/anti-fouling (copper sulphate), an industrial oxidizing agent (potassium dichromate), a pharmaceutical (paracetamol), and a quaternary ammonium compound (benzalkonium chloride). Benzalkonium chloride was the most toxic in terms of lethality, whereas paracetamol, copper sulphate, and potassium dichromate caused deleterious effects in the reproductive performance of exposed D. magna. Adverse effects in the fitness of the daughter (F₁) generation were observed in the case of maternal exposure to paracetamol and copper sulphate, although they were not very pronounced. These findings highlight the usefulness of our approach and reinforce the view-shared by other authors-of the need for a generalised formal assessment of the transgenerational effects of pollutants.

Could some procedures commonly used in bioassays with the copepod Acartia tonsa Dana 1849 distort results?

Many organizations have suggested the use of the Calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa in protocols for acute toxicity tests. Nevertheless, these protocols present some problems, such as using 60-180µm meshes to separate specific stages of A. tonsa or carrying out the tests using small volumes that reflect high densities of A. tonsa that do not occur in nature, which could lead to distorted results. In addition, ecotoxicological studies may use statistical approaches that are inadequate for the type of data being analysed. For these reasons, some methodological approaches for bioassays using A. tonsa need to be clarified and revised. In this study, we present information about (i) the retention of copepodite stages of A. tonsa on 180, 330 and 500µm net meshes; (ii) tested storage volumes of 1 organism per 5, 10 or 20mL in each test container (TC); and (iii) considerations about the statistics employed. The results demonstrated that a net mesh of 180µm is capable of retaining all copepodite stages (CI to CVI), contrasting with the recommendation of using a 180µm mesh to separate out adults only. Coarser meshes (330 and 500µm) can also retain different proportions of all copepodite stages, but cannot separate out one developmental stage only. Twenty-five millilitres of medium in an open TC, commonly employed in bioassays simulating densities of 1 organism 5mL^-1, completely evaporated, and the results showed that the TCs need to be covered (e.g., PVC film) and filled with a minimum of 100mL of culture medium (simulating densities of 1 organism 20mL^-1) to avoid evaporation and increases in salinity. The current use of ANOVA in ecotoxicological studies with proportions of surviving organisms should also be reconsidered since the data are discrete and have a binomial distribution; general linear models (GLMs) are considered more adequate. The information presented here suggests some adjustments that hopefully will enable the improvement of the procedures and methods employed in studies of acute toxicity using the copepod A. tonsa.

Experimental design matters for statistical analysis: how to handle blocking

BACKGROUND

Nowadays, evaluation of the effects of pesticides often relies on experimental designs that involve multiple concentrations of the pesticide of interest or multiple pesticides at specific comparable concentrations and, possibly, secondary factors of interest. Unfortunately, the experimental design is often more or less neglected when analysing data. Two data examples were analysed using different modelling strategies. First, in a randomized complete block design, mean heights of maize treated with a herbicide and one of several adjuvants were compared. Second, translocation of an insecticide applied to maize as a seed treatment was evaluated using incomplete data from an unbalanced design with several layers of hierarchical sampling. Extensive simulations were carried out to further substantiate the effects of different modelling strategies.

RESULTS

It was shown that results from suboptimal approaches (two-sample t-tests and ordinary ANOVA assuming independent observations) may be both quantitatively and qualitatively different from the results obtained using an appropriate linear mixed model. The simulations demonstrated that the different approaches may lead to differences in coverage percentages of confidence intervals and type 1 error rates, confirming that misleading conclusions can easily happen when an inappropriate statistical approach is chosen.

CONCLUSION

To ensure that experimental data are summarized appropriately, avoiding misleading conclusions, the experimental design should duly be reflected in the choice of statistical approaches and models. We recommend that author guidelines should explicitly point out that authors need to indicate how the statistical analysis reflects the experimental design. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Concentration and timing of application reveal strong fungistatic effect of tebuconazole in a Daphnia-microparasitic yeast model

Given the importance of pollutant effects on host-parasite relationships and disease spread, the main goal of this study was to assess the influence of different exposure scenarios for the fungicide tebuconazole (concentration×timing of application) on a Daphnia-microparasitic yeast experimental system. Previous results had demonstrated that tebuconazole is able to suppress Metschnikowia bicuspidata infection at ecologically-relevant concentrations; here, we aimed to obtain an understanding of the mechanism underlying the anti-parasitic (fungicidal or fungistatic) action of tebuconazole. We exposed the Daphnia-yeast system to four nominal tebuconazole concentrations at four timings of application (according to the predicted stage of parasite development), replicated on two Daphnia genotypes, in a fully crossed experiment. An "all-or-nothing" effect was observed, with tebuconazole completely suppressing infection from 13.5μgl^-1 upwards, independent of the timing of tebuconazole application. A follow-up experiment confirmed that the suppression of infection occurred within a narrow range of tebuconazole concentrations (3.65-13.5μgl^-1), although a later application of the fungicide had to be compensated for by a slight increase in concentration to elicit the same anti-parasitic effect. The mechanism behind this anti-parasitic effect seems to be the inhibition of M. bicuspidata sporulation, since tebuconazole was effective in preventing ascospore production even when applied at a later time. However, this fungicide also seemed to affect the vegetative growth of the yeast, as demonstrated by the enhanced negative effect of the parasite (increasing mortality in one of the host genotypes) at a later time of application of tebuconazole, when no signs of infection were observed. Fungicide contamination can thus affect the severity and spread of disease in natural populations, as well as the inherent co-evolutionary dynamics in host-parasite systems.

Repeated pulse exposures to lambda-cyhalothrin affect the behavior, physiology, and survival of the damselfly larvae Ischnura graellsii (Insecta; Odonata)

Damselflies form an essential part of the aquatic and terrestrial food web. Pesticides may, however, negatively affect their behavior, physiology, and survival. To assess this, a 42-day-lasting bioassay was conducted, during which damselfly larvae (Ischnura graellsii; n = 20) were repeatedly exposed to lambda-cyhalothrin (3 days at; 0, 10, 50, 250, 1250, and 6250ng LCH L^-1), followed by recovery phases (4 days) in pesticide-free medium for six weeks. This exposure design was used to simulate frequent runoff events in the field. Variables related to the behavior (strikes against prey and capture success), growth, physiology (lipid content and fatty acid composition), as well as mortality were assessed throughout the experiment. The two highest LCH concentrations induced 100% mortality within the first 48h, whereas 85% of the test organisms survived 28 days under control conditions. The number of strikes against prey was not affected by LCH. In contrast, prey capture success decreased significantly (up to ~50% at 250ng LCH L^-1, for instance, after the third pulse exposure) following LCH-exposures compared to the control. This difference was not observed after recovery phases, however, which did not counteract the enhanced energy demand for detoxification and defense mechanisms indicated by a lower growth rate (up to ~20%) and lipid content (up to ~30%) of damselflies at 50 and 250ng LCH L^-1. In addition, two essential fatty acids (eicosapentaenoic acid and arachidonic acid) and two precursors (linolenic acid and α-linolenic acid) decreased in their concentrations upon exposure towards 250ng LCH L^-1. Thus the results of this study indicate that long-term exposure towards LCH pulses can affect damselfly behavior, physiology and survival. Given the essential role of damselflies in food web dynamics, these effects may potentially translate into local population impairments with subsequent bottom-up directed effects within and across ecosystem boundaries.

Why you cannot transform your way out of trouble for small counts

While data transformation is a common strategy to satisfy linear modeling assumptions, a theoretical result is used to show that transformation cannot reasonably be expected to stabilize variances for small counts. Under broad assumptions, as counts get smaller, it is shown that the variance becomes proportional to the mean under monotonic transformations g(·) that satisfy g(0)=0, excepting a few pathological cases. A suggested rule-of-thumb is that if many predicted counts are less than one then data transformation cannot reasonably be expected to stabilize variances, even for a well-chosen transformation. This result has clear implications for the analysis of counts as often implemented in the applied sciences, but particularly for multivariate analysis in ecology. Multivariate discrete data are often collected in ecology, typically with a large proportion of zeros, and it is currently widespread to use methods of analysis that do not account for differences in variance across observations nor across responses. Simulations demonstrate that failure to account for the mean-variance relationship can have particularly severe consequences in this context, and also in the univariate context if the sampling design is unbalanced.

Multiple exposure routes of a pesticide exacerbate effects on a grazing mayfly

Hydrophobic pesticides such as pyrethroid insecticides tend to occur in their soluble form mainly as transient pulses in streams. In addition, they are regularly detected in significant quantities adsorbed to stream sediments and other organic in-stream structures. Consequently, stream biota is likely subjected to pesticide exposure via multiple routes. In this study we aimed at investigating the influence of exposure routes for the pyrethroid insecticide lambda-cyhalothrin on the grazing mayfly Heptagenia sulphurea. Therefore, H. sulphurea was exposed to lambda-cyhalothrin via single- (water or biofilm) or biphasic exposure (water and biofilm) at environmentally realistic concentrations (0, 0.1, 1μgL(-1)) and exposure duration (2h) in a full factorial design (n=5). Mortality, moulting frequency, and biofilm accrual (proxy for feeding rate) were recorded subsequent to a 7 d post exposure period. Mortality significantly increased and moulting frequency significantly decreased with increasing concentrations of lambda-cyhalothrin in the water phase whereas exposure via biofilm prompted no significant effects on these endpoints (α=0.05). Effect predictions systematically underestimated and overestimated effects for mortality and moulting frequency, respectively. Similarly, mayfly feeding rate was significantly reduced by water phase exposure whereas pre-exposed biofilm did not significantly affect this variable. However, we found a significant but non-systematic interaction between water phase and biofilm exposure on mayfly feeding rate. Our results show that exposure to the same pesticide via multiple exposure routes may increase the magnitude of effects beyond the level predicted from single phase exposures which has clear implications for the aquatic risk assessment of hydrophobic pesticides. However, our results additionally reveal that interactions between pesticide exposure routes may vary between selected dependent variables. We emphasize that unravelling the underlying mechanisms causing these discrepancies in interactive effects between exposure routes is a major aspect that should receive further attention in future research.

So Many Variables: Joint Modeling in Community Ecology

Technological advances have enabled a new class of multivariate models for ecology, with the potential now to specify a statistical model for abundances jointly across many taxa, to simultaneously explore interactions across taxa and the response of abundance to environmental variables. Joint models can be used for several purposes of interest to ecologists, including estimating patterns of residual correlation across taxa, ordination, multivariate inference about environmental effects and environment-by-trait interactions, accounting for missing predictors, and improving predictions in situations where one can leverage knowledge of some species to predict others. We demonstrate this by example and discuss recent computation tools and future directions.