Community-Level Social Processes and Firearm Shooting Events: A Multilevel Analysis

Identifying overlaps and disconnects between media reports and official records of nonfatal firearm injuries in Indianapolis, Indiana, 2021-2022

OBJECTIVE

Open-source data systems, largely drawn from media sources, are commonly used by scholars due to the lack of a comprehensive national data system. It is unclear if these data provide an accurate and complete representation of firearm injuries and their context. The study objectives were to compare firearm injuries in official police records with media reports to better identify the characteristics associated with media reporting.

METHODS

Firearm injuries were identified in open-source media reports and compared to nonfatal firearm injury (n = 1642) data from official police records between January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Events were matched on date, location, and event circumstances. Four multivariate, multi-level mixed effects logistic regression models were conducted to assess which survivor, event, and community characteristics were associated with media reporting. Data were analyzed 2023 - January 2024.

RESULTS

Media reported 41% of nonfatal shootings in 2021 and 45% in 2022(p < 0.05), which is approximately two out of every five shootings. Shootings involving multiple survivors, children, and self-defense were more likely to be reported, whereas unintentional shootings and shootings that occurred in structurally disadvantaged communities were less likely to be reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that relying on media reports of firearm injuries alone may misrepresent the numbers and contexts of shootings. Public health interventions that educate journalists about these important issues may be an impactful firearm violence prevention strategy. Also, it is critical to link data systems at the local level to ensure interventions are designed and evaluated using accurate data.

Neighborhood collective efficacy and environmental exposure to firearm homicide among a national sample of adolescents

BACKGROUND

Living near an incident of firearm violence can negatively impact youth, regardless of whether the violence is experienced firsthand. Inequities in household and neighborhood resources may affect the prevalence and consequences of exposure across racial/ethnic groups.

FINDINGS

Using data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study and the Gun Violence Archive, we estimate that approximately 1 in 4 adolescents in large US cities lived within 800 m (0.5 miles) of a past-year firearm homicide during 2014-17. Exposure risk decreased as household income and neighborhood collective efficacy increased, though stark racial/ethnic inequities remained. Across racial/ethnic groups, adolescents in poor households in moderate or high collective efficacy neighborhoods had a similar risk of past-year firearm homicide exposure as middle-to-high income adolescents in low collective efficacy neighborhoods.

CONCLUSIONS

Empowering communities to build and leverage social ties may be as impactful for reducing firearm violence exposure as income supports. Comprehensive violence prevention efforts should include systems-level strategies that jointly strengthen family and community resources.

Historical redlining and the epidemiology of present-day firearm violence in the United States: A multi-city analysis

Firearm violence is a major cause of morbidity, mortality, and racial health disparities in the United States. Previous studies have identified associations between historically racist housing discrimination (i.e., redlining practices) and firearm violence; however, these studies generally have been limited to a single city and have yet to provide sufficient evidence through which to determine the extent and dynamics of the impact of this relationship across the country. The aim of our study was (1) to estimate the association of historical redlining on both violent and firearm death across the country in nested models; and (2) to examine spatial non-stationarity to determine whether the impact of historical redlining on violent and firearm death was the same across the U.S. We used multilevel Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models to determine the relationship between redlining as illustrated through Home Owners' Loan Corporation maps and 2019 violent and firearm deaths at the ZIP code-level nested within 21 cities across the U.S. We found that at the ZIP code level, there was a dose-responsive relationship between HOLC grading and the incidence of present-day firearm deaths. In general, redlined ZIP codes had higher relative incidence of firearm deaths. Associations were not stable across cities. For example, associations were relatively stronger in Baltimore, MD and weaker in Los Angeles, CA. This research reinforces the findings of previous studies examining the impact of redlining on firearm death across the extent of the entire country in 21 cities and claim that HOLC grades are associated with present-day violence.

Preventing Urban Firearm Homicides during COVID-19: Preliminary Results from Three Cities with the Advance Peace Program

The years 2020-2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic witnessed increases in firearm violence in many cities across the USA. We present data from Sacramento, Stockton, and Richmond, California that suggests firearm homicides during the pandemic did not increase in all communities or disproportionately burden the African American community. More specifically, we found that in these cities, there was a 5-52% decrease in gun homicides during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period for neighborhoods with a gun violence prevention program operating there. We also found a 24-83% reduction in gun homicides in census tracts with > 20% Black populations in Sacramento and Stockton during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period. In two cities, there was a 15-42% decrease in the number of African American men under 35 years old that were victims of a gun homicide in 2021 compared to 2018. We also found that the gun violence program operating in these cities called Advance Peace interrupted 202 street-level conflicts where guns were present across the three cities in 2020/2021 compared to 178 of the same conflicts in 2018/2019. These interruptions likely saved hundreds of lives and we estimate contributed to between US $65 and $494 million in savings. Advance Peace is a program that engages those at the center of gun violence, frequently young, Black men under 35 years old, and offers them the Peacemaker Fellowship, an intensive, 18-month program of 24/7 mentorship, social services, and life opportunities. The program is delivered by community resident "credible messengers," who conduct the mentorship and interrupt conflicts in the streets. While these findings are descriptive and preliminary, we know of no other program that was in operation before and during the pandemic in each of these cities that engaged the hard-to-reach but highly influential population at the center of gun violence.

Dual public health crises: the overlap of drug overdose and firearm injury in Indianapolis, Indiana, 2018-2020

Background

Drug overdose and firearm injury are two of the United States (US) most unrelenting public health crises, both of which have been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic. Programs and policies typically focus on each epidemic, alone, which may produce less efficient interventions if overlap does exist. The objective is to examine whether drug overdose correlates with and is associated with firearm injury at the census tract level while controlling for neighborhood characteristics.

Methods

An ecological study of census tracts in Indianapolis, Indiana from 2018 to 2020. Population rates per 100,000 and census tracts with the highest overlap of overdose and firearm injury were identified based on spatial clusters. Bivariate association between census tract characteristic and drug overdose and firearm violence rate within spatial clusters. Zero-inflated negative binominal regression was used to estimate if the drug overdose activity is associated with higher future firearm injury.

Results

In high overdose—high firearm injury census tracts, rates of firearm injury and drug overdose are two times higher compared to city wide rates. Indicators of structural disadvantage and structural racism are higher in high overdose—high firearm injury census tracts compared to city-wide averages. Drug overdoses are associated with higher rates of firearm injury in the following year (IRR: 1.004, 95% CI 1.001, 1.007, p < 0.05), adjusting for census tract characteristics and spatial dependence.

Conclusions

Drug overdose and firearm injury co-spatially concentrate within census tracts. Moreover, drug overdoses are associated with future firearm injury. Interventions to reduce firearm injuries and drug overdoses should be a co-response in high drug overdose—high firearm injury communities.

Spatiotemporal patterns of firearm acquisition in the United States in different presidential terms

This study develops mathematical tools and approaches to investigate spatiotemporal patterns of firearm acquisition in the U.S. complemented by hypothesis testing and statistical analysis. First, state-level and nation-level instant background check (BC) data are employed as proxy of firearm acquisition corresponding to 1999-2021. The relative-phase time-series of BC in each U.S. state is recovered and utilized to calculate the time-series of the U.S. states' synchronization degree. We reveal that U.S. states present a high-level degree of synchronization except in 2010-2011 and after 2018. Comparing these results with respect to a sitting U.S. president provides additional information: specifically, any two presidential terms are characterized by statistically different synchronization degrees except G. W. Bush's first term and B. H. Obama's second term. Next, to detail variations of BC, short-time Fourier transform, dimensionality reduction techniques, and diffusion maps are implemented within a time-frequency representation. Firearm acquisition in the high frequency band is described by a low-dimensional embedding, in the form of a plane with two embedding coordinates. Data points on the embedding plane identify separate clusters that signify state transitions in the original BC data with respect to different time windows. Through this analysis, we reveal that the frequency content of the BC data has a time-dependent characteristic. By comparing the diffusion map at hand with respect to a presidential term, we find that at least one of the embedding coordinates presents statistically significant variations between any two presidential terms except B. H. Obama's first term and D. J. Trump's pre-COVID term. The results point at a possible interplay between firearm acquisition in the U.S. and a presidential term.

Towards a National Definition and Database for Nonfatal Shooting Incidents

After a decades-long decline, criminal gun violence has increased dramatically in many parts of the USA. Most victims survive their gunshot wounds; however, research and data collection focus primarily on fatal events. In fact, there is no official national definition of a nonfatal shooting incident, nor a repository of these data. This definitional oversight inhibits data-informed policy and practice. The current study involves two data sources: fatal and nonfatal shooting incidents recorded in an internal metropolitan police database and official Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) violent crime data. Shooting incidents in the police database were matched to incidents in the UCR data to determine how they were officially categorized and reported to the FBI. The majority (82.0%) of nonfatal shooting incidents in the UCR data were recorded as Aggravated Assault-Gun, while 16.5% were classified as a violent crime other than an Aggravated Assault-Gun. The UCR data were missing 1.5% of the nonfatal shooting incidents documented by the police database. Almost four-fifths (79.7%) of all Aggravated Assault-Gun incidents in the UCR data did not meet the suggested definition of a nonfatal shooting incident. Overall, official crime statistics are not a good data source for nonfatal shooting incidents. A holistic response to criminal gun violence requires comprehensive, valid, and reliable data collection on all shooting incidents, especially those incidents in which a person is injured by gunfire. Establishing a national definition for a nonfatal shooting incident is the first important step toward effective gun violence prevention and reduction.

Changing epidemiology of firearm injury: a cohort study of non-fatal firearm victimisation before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, Indianapolis, Indiana

OBJECTIVE

To examine victimisation rates, geographic patterns and neighbourhood characteristics associated with non-fatal firearm injury rates before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

City of Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, 1 January 2017-30 June 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Intentional non-fatal firearm injury victims from Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department records. The study included information on 2578 non-fatal firearm injury victims between ages 0 and 77 years. Of these victims, 82.5% were male and 77.4% were black.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates of non-fatal firearm injuries per 100 000 population by victim age, race, sex and incident motive. Prepandemic and peripandemic non-fatal firearm injury rates.

RESULTS

Non-fatal shooting rates increased 8.60%, from 57.0 per 100 000 person-years in prepandemic years to 65.6 per 100 000 person-years during the pandemic (p<0.001). Rates of female victims (15.2 vs 23.8 per 100,000; p<0.001) and older victims (91.3 vs 120.4 per 100,000; p<0.001) increased significantly during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period. Neighbourhoods with higher levels of structural disadvantage (IRR: 1.157, 95% CI 1.012 to 1.324) and prepandemic firearm injury rates (IRR: 1.001, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.002) was positively associated with higher rates of non-fatal firearm injuries during the pandemic, adjusting for neighbourhood characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-fatal firearm injuries increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among female and older victims. Efforts are needed to expand and rethink current firearm prevention efforts that both address the diversification of victimisation and the larger societal trauma of firearm violence.

Community correlates of change: A mixed-effects assessment of shooting dynamics during COVID-19

This study examines changes in gun violence at the census tract level in Philadelphia, PA before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Piecewise generalized linear mixed effects models are used to test the relative impacts of social-structural and demographic factors, police activity, the presence of and proximity to drug markets, and physical incivilities on shooting changes between 2017 and June, 2021. Model results revealed that neighborhood structural characteristics like concentrated disadvantage and racial makeup, as well as proximity to drug markets and police activity were associated with higher shooting rates. Neighborhood drug market activity and police activity significantly predicted changes in shooting rates over time after the onset of COVID-19. This work demonstrates the importance of understanding whether there are unique factors that impact the susceptibility to exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. The increasing risk of being in a neighborhood with an active drug market during the pandemic suggests efforts related to disrupting drug organizations, or otherwise curbing violence stemming from drug markets, may go a long way towards quelling citywide increases in gun violence.

Examining Time-Variant Spatial Dependence of Urban Places and Shootings

Place-based interventions are increasingly implemented to address firearm violence. While research on the social determinants of health and criminological theories suggest that the built environment significantly influences health outcomes and the spatial distribution of crime, little is known about the attraction between urban places and shootings. The present study adds to the literature on firearm violence and micro-place research by exploring the spatial dependence in a Midwest metropolitan area between shootings and bus stops, vacant properties, alcohol outlets, and other locations that have been theoretically or empirically linked to firearm violence. The G-function and Cross-K function are used to characterize the univariate clustering of shootings and bivariate attraction with other locations, respectively. Bus stops, blighted vacant properties, alcohol outlets, and businesses/residential locations participating in a public-private-community initiative to reduce crime exhibited significant locational dependence with shootings at short distances. Attraction between on-premises alcohol outlets and shootings was observed only during the night. No attraction was found between schools and shootings. The findings reaffirm the importance of place-based research-especially at the micro-place level-and suggest that certain urban places may be appropriate targets for interventions that modify existing physical and/or social structures.

Neighborhood disadvantage and firearm injury: does shooting location matter?

Background

Firearm violence is a public health problem that disparately impacts areas of economic and social deprivation. Despite a growing literature on neighborhood characteristics and injury, few studies have examined the association between neighborhood disadvantage and fatal and nonfatal firearm assault using data on injury location. We conducted an ecological Bayesian spatial analysis examining neighborhood disadvantage as a social determinant of firearm injury in Seattle, Washington.

Methods

Neighborhood disadvantage was measured using the National Neighborhood Data Archive disadvantage index. The index includes proportion of female-headed households with children, proportion of households with public assistance income, proportion of people with income below poverty in the past 12 months, and proportion of the civilian labor force aged 16 and older that are unemployed at the census tract level. Firearm injury counts included individuals with a documented assault-related gunshot wound identified from medical records and supplemented with the Gun Violence Archive between March 20, 2016 and December 31, 2018. Available addresses were geocoded to identify their point locations and then aggregated to the census tract level. Besag-York-Mollie (BYM2) Bayesian Poisson models were fit to the data to estimate the association between the index of neighborhood disadvantage and firearm injury count with a population offset within each census tract.

Results

Neighborhood disadvantage was significantly associated with the count of firearm injury in both non-spatial and spatial models. For two census tracts that differed by 1 decile of neighborhood disadvantage, the number of firearm injuries was higher by 21.0% (95% credible interval: 10.5, 32.8%) in the group with higher neighborhood disadvantage. After accounting for spatial structure, there was still considerable residual spatial dependence with 53.3% (95% credible interval: 17.0, 87.3%) of the model variance being spatial. Additionally, we observed census tracts with higher disadvantage and lower count of firearm injury in communities with proximity to employment opportunities and targeted redevelopment, suggesting other contextual protective factors.

Conclusions

Even after adjusting for socioeconomic factors, firearm injury research should investigate spatial clustering as independence cannot be able to be assumed. Future research should continue to examine potential contextual and environmental neighborhood determinants that could impact firearm injuries in urban communities.