Predictive Mathematical Models of Weight Loss

Quantification of the effect of GLP-1R agonists on body weight using in vitro efficacy information: An extension of the Hall body composition model

Obesity has become a major public health concern worldwide. Pharmacological interventions with the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) have shown promising results in facilitating weight loss and improving metabolic outcomes in individuals with obesity. Quantifying drug effects of GLP-1RAs on energy intake (EI) and body weight (BW) using a QSP modeling approach can further increase the mechanistic understanding of these effects, and support obesity drug development. An extensive literature-based dataset was created, including data from several diet, liraglutide and semaglutide studies and their effects on BW and related parameters. The Hall body composition model was used to quantify and predict effects on EI. The model was extended with (1) a lifestyle change/placebo effect on EI, (2) a weight loss effect on activity for the studies that included weight management support, and (3) a GLP-1R agonistic effect using in vitro potency efficacy information. The estimated reduction in EI of clinically relevant dosages of semaglutide (2.4 mg) and liraglutide (3.0 mg) was 34.5% and 13.0%, respectively. The model adequately described the resulting change in BW over time. At 20 weeks the change in BW was estimated to be -17% for 2.4 mg semaglutide and -8% for 3 mg liraglutide, respectively. External validation showed the model was able to predict the effect of semaglutide on BW in the STEP 1 study. The GLP-1RA body composition model can be used to quantify and predict the effect of novel GLP-1R agonists on BW and changes in underlying processes using early in vitro efficacy information.

Development and validation of a weight-loss predictor to assist weight loss management

This study aims to develop and validate a modeling framework to predict long-term weight change on the basis of self-reported weight data. The aim is to enable focusing resources of health systems on individuals that are at risk of not achieving their goals in weight loss interventions, which would help both health professionals and the individuals in weight loss management. The weight loss prediction models were built on 327 participants, aged 21-78, from a Finnish weight coaching cohort, with at least 9 months of self-reported follow-up weight data during weight loss intervention. With these data, we used six machine learning methods to predict weight loss after 9 months and selected the best performing models for implementation as modeling framework. We trained the models to predict either three classes of weight change (weight loss, insufficient weight loss, weight gain) or five classes (high/moderate/insufficient weight loss, high/low weight gain). Finally, the prediction accuracy was validated with an independent cohort of overweight UK adults (n = 184). Of the six tested modeling approaches, logistic regression performed the best. Most three-class prediction models achieved prediction accuracy of > 50% already with half a month of data and up to 97% with 8 months. The five-class prediction models achieved accuracies from 39% (0.5 months) to 89% (8 months). Our approach provides an accurate prediction method for long-term weight loss, with potential for easier and more efficient management of weight loss interventions in the future. A web application is available: https://elolab.shinyapps.io/WeightChangePredictor/ .The trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04019249 (Clinical Trials Identifier NCT04019249), first posted on 15/07/2019.

Realistic aspects behind the application of the rat model of chemically-induced mammary cancer: Practical guidelines to obtain the best results

Cancer is one of the most important public health problems worldwide. Despite the great contribution of in-vitro studies for biomedical research, animals are essential to study diseases' biopathology and diagnosis, and searching for new preventive and therapeutic strategies. Breast cancer is currently the most common cancer globally, accounting for 12.5% of all new annual cancer cases worldwide. Although the rat model of mammary cancer chemically-induced is widely used to study this disease, there is a lack of standardization in procedures for cancer induction, sample collection, and analysis. Therefore, it is important to provide a practical guide for researchers aiming to work with this model to make the analysis of results more uniform. Thus, in this review, we provide the researchers with a detailed step-by-step guide to implement a rat model of mammary cancer, based on our wide experience in this field, to obtain the best results, maximum throughput of each experiment, and easy comparison among researches.

Ketogenic Diet Applied in Weight Reduction of Overweight and Obese Individuals with Progress Prediction by Use of the Modified Wishnofsky Equation

Ketogenic diet is often used as diet therapy for certain diseases, among other things, its positive effect related to weight loss is highlighted. Precisely because of the suggestion that KD can help with weight loss, visceral obesity, and appetite control, 100 respondents joined the weight loss program (of which 31% were men and 69% were women). The aforementioned respondents were interviewed in order to determine their eating habits, the amount of food consumed, and the time when they consume meals. Basic anthropometric data (body height, body mass, chest, waist, hips, biceps, and thigh circumferences) were also collected, in order to be able to monitor their progress during the different phases of the ketogenic diet. Important information is the expected body mass during the time frame of a certain keto diet phase. This information is important for the nutritionist, medical doctor, as well as for the participant in the reduced diet program; therefore, the model was developed that modified the original equation according to Wishnofsky. The results show that women lost an average of 22.7 kg (average number of days in the program 79.5), and for men the average weight loss was slightly higher, 29.7 kg (with an average of 76.8 days in the program). The prediction of expected body mass by the modified Wishnofsky's equation was extremely well aligned with the experimental values, as shown by the Bland-Altman graph (bias for women 0.021 kg and -0.697 kg for men) and the coefficient of determination of 0.9903. The modification of the Wishnofsky equation further shed light on the importance of controlled energy reduction during the dietetic options of the ketogenic diet.

What Is a 2021 Reference Body?

The historical 1975 Reference Man is a ‘model’ that had been used as a basis for the calculation of radiation doses, metabolism, pharmacokinetics, sizes for organ transplantation and ergonomic optimizations in the industry, e.g., to plan dimensions of seats and other formats. The 1975 Reference Man was not an average individual of a population; it was based on the multiple characteristics of body compositions that at that time were available, i.e., mainly from autopsy data. Faced with recent technological advances, new mathematical models and socio-demographic changes within populations characterized by an increase in elderly and overweight subjects a timely ‘state-of-the-art’ 2021 Reference Body are needed. To perform this, in vivo human body composition data bases in Kiel, Baton Rouge, San Francisco and Honolulu were analyzed and detailed 2021 Reference Bodies, and they were built for both sexes and two age groups (≤40 yrs and >40 yrs) at BMIs of 20, 25, 30 and 40 kg/m2. We have taken an integrative approach to address ‘structure−structure’ and ‘structure−function’ relationships at the whole-body level using in depth body composition analyses as assessed by gold standard methods, i.e., whole body Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and the 4-compartment (4C-) model (based on deuterium dilution, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and body densitometry). In addition, data obtained by a three-dimensional optical scanner were used to assess body shape. The future applications of the 2021 Reference Body relate to mathematical modeling to address complex metabolic processes and pharmacokinetics using a multi-level/multi-scale approach defining health within the contexts of neurohumoral and metabolic control.

Dietary Intake and Energy Expenditure in Breast Cancer Survivors: A Review

Many breast cancer survivors (BCS) gain fat mass and lose fat-free mass during treatment (chemotherapy, radiation, surgery) and estrogen suppression therapy, which increases the risk of developing comorbidities. Whether these body composition alterations are a result of changes in dietary intake, energy expenditure, or both is unclear. Thus, we reviewed studies that have measured components of energy balance in BCS who have completed treatment. Longitudinal studies suggest that BCS reduce self-reported energy intake and increase fruit and vegetable consumption. Although some evidence suggests that resting metabolic rate is higher in BCS than in age-matched controls, no study has measured total daily energy expenditure (TDEE) in this population. Whether physical activity levels are altered in BCS is unclear, but evidence suggests that light-intensity physical activity is lower in BCS compared to age-matched controls. We also discuss the mechanisms through which estrogen suppression may impact energy balance and develop a theoretical framework of dietary intake and TDEE interactions in BCS. Preclinical and human experimental studies indicate that estrogen suppression likely elicits increased energy intake and decreased TDEE, although this has not been systematically investigated in BCS specifically. Estrogen suppression may modulate energy balance via alterations in appetite, fat-free mass, resting metabolic rate, and physical activity. There are several potential areas for future mechanistic energetic research in BCS (e.g., characterizing predictors of intervention response, appetite, dynamic changes in energy balance, and differences in cancer sub-types) that would ultimately support the development of more targeted and personalized behavioral interventions.