Mechanistic models of seed dispersal by wind

Spatial prioritization for widespread invasive species control: Trade-offs between current impact and future spread

Spatially explicit prioritization of invasive species control is a complex issue, requiring consideration of trade-offs between immediate and future benefits. This study aimed to prioritize management efforts to account for current and future threats from widespread invasions and examine the strength of the trade-off between these different management goals. As a case study, we identified spatially explicit management priorities for the widespread invasion of introduced willow into riparian and wetland habitats across a 102,145-km2 region in eastern Australia. In addition to targeting places where willow threatens biodiversity now, a second set of management goals was to limit reinfestation and further spread that could occur via two different mechanisms (downstream and by wind). A model of likely willow distribution across the region was combined with spatial data for biodiversity (native vegetation, threatened species and communities), ecological conditions, management costs, and two potential dispersal layers. We used systematic conservation planning software (Zonation) to prioritize where willow management should be focussed across more than 100,000 catchments for a range of different scenarios that reflected different weights between management goals. For willow invasion, we found that we could prioritize willow management to reduce the future threat of dispersal downstream with little reduction in the protection of biodiversity. However, accounting for future threats from wind dispersal resulted in a stronger trade-off with protection of threatened biodiversity. The strongest trade-off was observed when both dispersal mechanisms were considered together. This study shows that considering current and future goals together offers the potential to substantially improve conservation outcomes for invasive species management. Our approach also informs land managers about the relative trade-offs among different management goals under different control scenarios, helping to make management decisions more transparent. This approach can be used for other widespread invasive species to help improve invasive species management decisions.

Transient Propagation of the Invasion Front in the Homogeneous Landscape and in the Presence of a Road

Understanding the propagation of invasive plants at the beginning of invasive spread is important as it can help practitioners eradicate harmful species more efficiently. In our work the propagation regime of the invasive plant species is studied at the short-time scale before a travelling wave is established and advances into space at a constant speed. The integro-difference framework has been employed to deal with a stage-structured population, and a short-distance dispersal mode has been considered in the homogeneous environment and when a road presents in the landscape. It is explained in the paper how nonlinear spatio-temporal dynamics arise in a transient regime where the propagation speed depends on the detection threshold population density. Furthermore, we investigate the question of whether the transient dynamics become different when the homogeneous landscape is transformed into the heterogeneous one. It is shown in the paper how invasion slows down in a transient regime in the presence of a road.

A case study on the application of spore sampling for the monitoring of macrofungi

Fungi play a vital role in ecosystem functioning, yet significant knowledge gaps persist in understanding their diversity and distribution leading to uncertainties about their threat status and extinction risk. This is partly owed to the difficulty of monitoring fungi using traditional fruiting body surveys. The present study evaluates airborne environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling as a monitoring tool with a focus on grassland macrofungi. We applied active and passive air sampling methods, complemented by extensive field surveys of waxcap and clavarioid fungi-species groups of high relevance for conservation. Twenty-nine species were recorded during the field surveys, 19 of which were also detectable by ITS2 metabarcoding of the collected samples. An additional 12 species from the studied genera were identified exclusively in air eDNA. We found that the patterns of species detection and read abundance in air samples reflected the abundance and occurrence of fruiting bodies on the field. Dispersal kernels fitted for the three dominant species predicted rapidly decreasing spore concentrations with increasing distance from fruitbodies. Airborne assemblages were dominated by a high diversity of common species, while rare and threatened red-listed species were under-represented, which underscores the difficulty in detecting rare species, not only in conventional surveys. Considering the benefits and drawbacks of air sampling and fruitbody surveys, we conclude that air sampling serves as a cost- and time-efficient tool to characterize local macrofungal communities, providing the potential to facilitate and improve future fungal monitoring efforts.

Partial differential equation models for invasive species spread in the presence of spatial heterogeneity

Models of invasive species spread often assume that landscapes are spatially homogeneous; thus simplifying analysis but potentially reducing accuracy. We extend a recently developed partial differential equation model for invasive conifer spread to account for spatial heterogeneity in parameter values and introduce a method to obtain key outputs (e.g. spread rates) from computational simulations. Simulations produce patterns of spatial spread which appear qualitatively similar to observed patterns in grassland ecosystems invaded by exotic conifers, validating our spatially explicit strategy. We find that incorporating spatial variation in different parameters does not significantly affect the evolution of invasions (which are characterised by a long quiescent period followed by rapid evolution towards to a constant rate of invasion) but that distributional assumptions can have a significant impact on the spread rate of invasions. Our work demonstrates that spatial variation in site-suitability or other parameters can have a significant impact on invasions and must be considered when designing models of invasive species spread.

Maple samara flight is robust to morphological perturbation and united by a classic drag model

Winged, autorotating seeds from the genus Acer, have been the subject of study for botanists and aerodynamicists for decades. Despite this attention and the relative simplicity of these winged seeds, there are still considerable gaps in our understanding of how samara dynamics are informed by morphological features. Additionally, questions remain regarding the robustness of their dynamics to morphological alterations such as mass change by moisture or area change by damage. We here challenge the conventional approach of using wing-loading correlations and instead demonstrate the superiority of a classical aerodynamic model. Using allometry, we determine why some species deviate from interspecific aerodynamic behavior. We alter samara mass and wing area and measure corresponding changes to descent velocity, rotation rate, and coning angle, thereby demonstrating their remarkable ability to autorotate despite significant morphological alteration. Samaras endure mass changes greater than 100% while maintaining descent velocity changes of less than 15%, and are thus robust to changes in mass by moisture or damage. Additionally, samaras withstand up to a 40% reduction in wing area before losing their ability to autorotate, with the largest wings more robust to ablation. Thus, samaras are also robust to wing damage in their environment, a fact children joyfully exploit.

Density affects plant size in the Gobi Desert

Plant size is a crucial functional trait with substantial implications in agronomy and forestry. Understanding the factors influencing plant size is essential for ecosystem management and restoration efforts. Various environmental factors and plant density play significant roles in plant size. However, how plant size responds to mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), and density in the arid areas remains incomplete. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted comprehensive vegetation surveys in the Gobi Desert in northwestern China with a MAP below 250 mm. We also collected climate data to disentangle the respective influences of climate and density on the community-weighted plant height, crown length, and crown width. Our observations revealed that the community-weighted mean plant height, crown length, and width demonstrated a positive association with MAT but negative relationships with both MAP and density. These patterns can be attributed to the predominance of shrubs over herbs in arid regions, as shrubs tend to be larger in size. The proportion of shrubs increases with MAT, while it decreases with MAP and density, resulting in higher plant height and larger crown dimensions. Although both MAP and MAT affect plant size in the Gobi Desert, our findings highlight the stronger role of plant density in regulating plant size, indicating that the surrounding plant community and competition among individuals are crucial drivers of plant size patterns. Our findings provide valuable guidance for nature-based solutions for vegetation restoration and ecosystem management, highlighting the importance of considering plant density as a key factor when designing and implementing restoration strategies in arid areas.

Elevated temperatures shift flower head height distributions and seed dispersal patterns in two invasive thistle species

Climate change may significantly alter how organisms disperse, with implications for population spread and species management. Wind-dispersed plants have emerged as a useful study system for investigating how climate change affects dispersal, although studies modeling wind dispersal often assume propagules are released from a single point on an individual. This simplifying assumption, while useful, may misestimate dispersal. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on dispersal distances and spread rates, examining how these quantities shift when accounting for all points of seed release on an individual. Using the wind-dispersed invasive thistles Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides, we quantify temperature-driven shifts in the distribution of flower head heights using a passive warming field experiment, and estimate how these shifts affect dispersal using the Wald analytical long-distance (WALD) model; for C. nutans, we use existing demographic data to simulate how these shifts affect population spread rates. We also compare dispersal distances for both warmed and ambient temperature plants, considering the entire distribution of flower head heights versus the common assumption of point-source seed release at the maximum height. For experimentally grown individuals, an ~0.6°C higher growing temperature increased mean and maximum flower head height by 14.1 cm (15.0%) and 14.0 cm (13.2%), respectively, in C. nutans and by 21.2 cm (26.6%) and 31.8 cm (36.7%), respectively, in C. acanthoides. Seeds from warmed individuals were more likely to exceed a given dispersal distance than those from their unwarmed counterparts; warmed C. nutans and C. acanthoides seeds were on average 1.36 and 1.71 times as likely, respectively, to travel 10 m or more in dispersal simulations, with this disparity increasing at longer dispersal distances. For C. nutans, increased growing temperatures boosted simulated rates of population spread by 42.2%, while assuming dispersal from a maximum height point source rather than the true distribution of flower head heights increased simulated spread by up to 28.5%. Our results not only demonstrate faster population spread under increased temperatures, but also have substantial implications for modeling such spread, as the common simplifying assumption of dispersal from a single maximum height source may substantially overestimate spread rates.

Computing Geographical Networks Generated by Air-Mass Movement

As air masses move within the troposphere, they transport a multitude of components including gases and particles such as pollen and microorganisms. These movements generate atmospheric highways that connect geographic areas at distant, local, and global scales that particles can ride depending on their aerodynamic properties and their reaction to environmental conditions. In this article we present an approach and an accompanying web application called tropolink for measuring the extent to which distant locations are potentially connected by air-mass movement. This approach is based on the computation of trajectories of air masses with the HYSPLIT atmospheric transport and dispersion model, and on the computation of connection frequencies, called connectivities, in the purpose of building trajectory-based geographical networks. It is illustrated for different spatial and temporal scales with three case studies related to plant epidemiology. The web application that we designed allows the user to easily perform intensive computation and mobilize massive archived gridded meteorological data to build weighted directed networks. The analysis of such networks allowed us for example, to describe the potential of invasion of a migratory pest beyond its actual distribution. Our approach could also be used to compute geographical networks generated by air-mass movement for diverse application domains, for example, to assess long-term risk of spread from persistent or recurrent sources of pollutants, including wildfire smoke.

Plastome phylogenomics reveals an early Pliocene North- and Central America colonization by long-distance dispersal from South America of a highly diverse bromeliad lineage

Understanding the spatial and temporal frameworks of species diversification is fundamental in evolutionary biology. Assessing the geographic origin and dispersal history of highly diverse lineages of rapid diversification can be hindered by the lack of appropriately sampled, resolved, and strongly supported phylogenetic contexts. The use of currently available cost-efficient sequencing strategies allows for the generation of a substantial amount of sequence data for dense taxonomic samplings, which together with well-curated geographic information and biogeographic models allow us to formally test the mode and tempo of dispersal events occurring in quick succession. Here, we assess the spatial and temporal frameworks for the origin and dispersal history of the expanded clade K, a highly diverse Tillandsia subgenus Tillandsia (Bromeliaceae, Poales) lineage hypothesized to have undergone a rapid radiation across the Neotropics. We assembled full plastomes from Hyb-Seq data for a dense taxon sampling of the expanded clade K plus a careful selection of outgroup species and used them to estimate a time- calibrated phylogenetic framework. This dated phylogenetic hypothesis was then used to perform biogeographic model tests and ancestral area reconstructions based on a comprehensive compilation of geographic information. The expanded clade K colonized North and Central America, specifically the Mexican transition zone and the Mesoamerican dominion, by long-distance dispersal from South America at least 4.86 Mya, when most of the Mexican highlands were already formed. Several dispersal events occurred subsequently northward to the southern Nearctic region, eastward to the Caribbean, and southward to the Pacific dominion during the last 2.8 Mya, a period characterized by pronounced climate fluctuations, derived from glacial-interglacial climate oscillations, and substantial volcanic activity, mainly in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Our taxon sampling design allowed us to calibrate for the first time several nodes, not only within the expanded clade K focal group but also in other Tillandsioideae lineages. We expect that this dated phylogenetic framework will facilitate future macroevolutionary studies and provide reference age estimates to perform secondary calibrations for other Tillandsioideae lineages.

Inflated Ovary May Increase the Dispersal Ability of Three Species in the Cold Deserts of Central Asia

Among the diaspores of angiosperms an inflated ovary (IO) is a novel morphological trait, but no studies have evaluated its effects on dispersal. The primary aim of this study was to determine the effect of the IO on diaspore dispersal in three cold desert species (Carex physodes, Calligonum junceum, and Sphaerophysa salsula). Various morphological features and the mass of fruits and seeds of each species were measured. The role of an IO in diaspore dispersal by wind and water was determined by comparing responses of intact (inflated) IOs and flattened fruits and seeds. Mature diaspores of three species were dispersed by wind, and the IO significantly increased dispersal distance in the field and at different wind speeds in the laboratory. The floating time on water was greater for inflated fruits than flattened fruits and seeds. Since the seed remains inside the IO until after dispersal is completed, the IO of the three species enhances diaspore dispersal. This is the first detailed study on how an IO increases diaspore/seed dispersal. Furthermore, after primary dispersal by wind, secondary dispersal can occur via wind or surface runoff of water, and each method is enhanced by the presence of an IO.

Post-fire seed dispersal of a wind-dispersed shrub declined with distance to seed source, yet had high levels of unexplained variation

Plant-population recovery across large disturbance areas is often seed-limited. An understanding of seed dispersal patterns is fundamental for determining natural-regeneration potential. However, forecasting seed dispersal rates across heterogeneous landscapes remains a challenge. Our objectives were to determine (i) the landscape patterning of post-disturbance seed dispersal, and underlying sources of variation and the scale at which they operate, and (ii) how the natural seed dispersal patterns relate to a seed augmentation strategy. Vertical seed trapping experiments were replicated across 2 years and five burned and/or managed landscapes in sagebrush steppe. Multi-scale sampling and hierarchical Bayesian models were used to determine the scale of spatial variation in seed dispersal. We then integrated an empirical and mechanistic dispersal kernel for wind-dispersed species to project rates of seed dispersal and compared natural seed arrival to typical post-fire aerial seeding rates. Seeds were captured across the range of tested dispersal distances, up to a maximum distance of 26 m from seed-source plants, although dispersal to the furthest traps was variable. Seed dispersal was better explained by transect heterogeneity than by patch or site heterogeneity (transects were nested within patch within site). The number of seeds captured varied from a modelled mean of ~13 m^-2 adjacent to patches of seed-producing plants, to nearly none at 10 m from patches, standardized over a 49-day period. Maximum seed dispersal distances on average were estimated to be 16 m according to a novel modelling approach using a 'latent' variable for dispersal distance based on seed trapping heights. Surprisingly, statistical representation of wind did not improve model fit and seed rain was not related to the large variation in total available seed of adjacent patches. The models predicted severe seed limitations were likely on typical burned areas, especially compared to the mean 95-250 seeds per m² that previous literature suggested were required to generate sagebrush recovery. More broadly, our Bayesian data fusion approach could be applied to other cases that require quantitative estimates of long-distance seed dispersal across heterogeneous landscapes.

Differences in colonization strategies of three common pioneer woody species in post mining heaps

Willow (Salix caprea), birch (Betula pendula) and aspen (Populus tremula) are common pioneer woody species, however little is known about colonization strategies in large-scale disturbances. Here we have compared the strategies of establishment of these pioneer woody species in unreclaimed sites on a large (1957 ha) spoil heap in Czechia. For all species, seedlings numbers peaked in the 17 year old (successional age - time since overburden heaping) plot, suggesting that initial soil development promotes seedling establishment while covering of the surface by litter and organic layers reduces the establishment of pioneer species. The proportion of willow decreased from the edge of the heap and analysis of the age structure suggests that willow establishment was correlated with the presence of older willows in the vicinity of willows of certain ages (13 and 23 years being particularly important). The proportion of birch increased with its distance from the heap edge, and it is correlated with suitable weather conditions in the year of establishment, mainly July rainfall. Aspen proportion does not change significantly with its distance from the heap edge and year of establishment. It correlates with the number of trees in both surrounding and climatic conditions. Detailed analysis of young trees shows that vegetative propagation by root suckers (offspring) is rare in birch. In willow they represent about half of the trees while in aspen all of the young trees were root suckers derived from older aspen trees. This indicates a different colonization strategy of individual species. Birch is capable of long-distance seed transfer, which establishes most of the population, and its establishment is highly influenced by climatic conditions. Willow spreads massively over a short distance, and its establishment is highly influenced by the presence of 21-23 year old willow individuals in the vicinity. Only few scattered trees are able to establish at longer distances, where they can later spread locally by seeds. Aspen spreads over a long distance in low numbers but when some trees are established it spreads massively locally by clones.

Dispersal without drivers: Intrinsic and extrinsic variables have no impact on movement distances in a terrestrial amphibian

Dispersive movements are often thought to be multicausal and driven by individual body size, sex, conspecific density, environmental variation, personality, and/or other variables. Yet such variables often do not account for most of the variation among dispersive movements in nature, leaving open the possibility that dispersion may be indeterministic. We assessed the amount of variation in 24 h movement distances that could be accounted for by potential drivers of displacement with a large empirical dataset of movement distances performed by Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) on the northern shore of Lake Erie at Long Point, Ontario (2002–2021, incl.). These toads are easy to sample repeatedly, can be identified individually and move parallel to the shoreline as they forage at night, potentially dispersing to new refuge sites. Using a linear mixed‐effect model that incorporated random effect terms to account for sampling variance and inter‐annual variation, we found that all potential intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of movement accounted for virtually none of the variation observed among 24 h distances moved by these animals, whether over short or large spatial scales. We examined the idea of movement personality by testing variance per individual toad and found no evidence of individuality in movement distances. We conclude that deterministic variables, whether intrinsic or extrinsic, neither can be shown to nor are necessary to drive movements in this population over all spatial scales. Stochastic, short time‐scale movements, such as daily foraging movements, can instead accumulate over time to produce large spatial‐scale movements that are dispersive in nature.

Effects of spatial distance and woody plant cover on beta diversity point to dispersal limitation as a driver of community assembly during postfire succession in a Mediterranean shrubland

Beta diversity, and its components of turnover and nestedness, reflects the processes governing community assembly, such as dispersal limitation or biotic interactions, but it is unclear how they operate at the local scale and how their role changes along postfire succession. Here, we analyzed the patterns of beta diversity and its components in a herbaceous plant community after fire, and in relation to dispersal ability, in Central Spain. We calculated multiple-site beta diversity (β_SOR) and its components of turnover (β_SIM) and nestedness (β_SNE) of all herbaceous plants, or grouped by dispersal syndrome (autochory, anemochory, and zoochory), during the first 3 years after wildfire. We evaluated the relationship between pairwise beta diversity (β_sor), and its components (β_sim, β_sne), and spatial distance or differences in woody plant cover, a proxy of biotic interactions. We found high multiple-site beta diversity dominated by the turnover component. Community dissimilarity increased with spatial distance, driven mostly by the turnover component. Species with less dispersal ability (i.e., autochory) showed a stronger spatial pattern of dissimilarity. Biotic interactions with woody plants contributed less to community dissimilarity, which tended to occur through the nestedness component. These results suggest that dispersal limitation prevails over biotic interactions with woody plants as a driver of local community assembly, even for species with high dispersal ability. These results contribute to our understanding of postfire community assembly and vegetation dynamics.

Propagation of invasive plant species in the presence of a road

Invasive plant species pose a significant threat to biodiversity and the economy, yet their management is often resource-intensive and expensive, and further research is required to make control measures more efficient. Evidence suggests that roads can have an important effect on the spread of invasive plant species, although little is known about the underlying mechanisms at play. We have developed a novel mathematical model to analyse the impact of roads on the propagation of invasive plants. The integro-difference equation model is formulated for stage-structured population and incorporates a road sub-domain in the spatial domain. The results of our study reveal, that, depending on the definition of the growth function in the model, there are three distinct types of behaviour in front of the road. Roads can act as barriers to invasion, lead to a formation of a beachhead in front of the road, or act as corridors allowing the invasive species to invade the domain in front of the road. Analytical and computational findings on how roads can impact the spread of invasive species show that a small change in conditions of the environment favouring the invasive species can change the case for the road, allowing the invasive species to invade the domain in front of the road where it previously could not spread.

Seed Dispersal Models for Natural Regeneration: A Review and Prospects

Natural regeneration in forest management, which relies on artificial planting, is considered a desirable alternative to reforestation. However, there are large uncertainties regarding the natural regeneration processes, such as seed production, seed dispersal, and seedling establishment. Among these processes, seed dispersal by wind must be modeled accurately to minimize the risks of natural regeneration. This study aimed to (1) review the main mechanisms of seed dispersal models, their characteristics, and their applications and (2) suggest prospects for seed dispersal models to increase the predictability of natural regeneration. With improving computing and observation systems, the modeling technique for seed dispersal by wind has continued to progress steadily from a simple empirical model to the Eulerian-Lagrangian model. Mechanistic modeling approaches with a dispersal kernel have been widely used and have attempted to be directly incorporated into spatial models. Despite the rapid development of various wind-dispersal models, only a few studies have considered their application in natural regeneration. We identified the potential attributes of seed dispersal modeling that cause high uncertainties and poor simulation results in natural regeneration scenarios: topography, pre-processing of wind data, and various inherent complexities in seed dispersal processes. We suggest that seed dispersal models can be further improved by incorporating (1) seed abscission mechanisms by wind, (2) spatiotemporally complex wind environments, (3) collisions with the canopy or ground during seed flight, and (4) secondary dispersal, long-distance dispersal, and seed predation. Interdisciplinary research linking climatology, biophysics, and forestry would help improve the prediction of seed dispersal and its impact on natural regeneration.

Plant canopy may promote seed dispersal by wind

Seed dispersal has received much research attention. The plant canopy can intercept diaspores, but the effect of the plant canopy (the aboveground portion of a plant consisting of branches and leaves) on dispersal distance has not been explored empirically. To determine the effect of plant canopy on seed dispersal distance, a comparison of diaspores falling through open air and through plant canopy was made in a wind tunnel using three wind speeds and diaspores with various traits. Compared with diaspores falling through open air, the dispersal distance of diaspores falling through plant canopy was decreased or increased, depending on wind speed and diaspore traits. When falling through a plant canopy, dispersal distance of diaspores with thorns or those without appendages was promoted at low wind speed (2 m s^-1), while that of diaspores with low wing loading (0.5 mg mm^-2) and terminal velocity (2.5 m s^-1) was promoted by relatively high (6 m s^-1) wind speed. A plant canopy could increase seed dispersal distance, which may be due to the complicated updraft generated by canopy. The effect of maternal plants on seed dispersal regulates the distribution pattern and the species composition of the community.

Urban road greenbelt configuration: The perspective of PM2.5 removal and air quality regulation

The establishment of the road green belt (RGB) is an effective means to reduce particle matter (PM_2.5) emissions from road traffic. This study tested the ability of 23 common tree species in Shenzhen to reduce PM_2.5 concentrations using field investigations and wind tunnel tests. The association between leaf microstructure and individual reduction ability was also analyzed. Finally, the impact of three RGB configurations (i.e., arbor, shrub, arbor + shrub) on road PM_2.5 dispersion and deposition was simulated using the ENVI-met three-dimensional aerodynamic model, based on which an optimal RGB configuration was proposed. There were three key findings of the tests. First, the wind speed was the main factor affecting the PM_2.5 concentration (54.2%), followed by vehicle flow (27.7%), temperature (14.2%), and time factor (7.6%). Second, the range of dry deposition velocity (V_d) was 0.04-6.4 m/s, and the dominant dust-retaining plant species were the evergreen trees, Ficus microcarpa and Ficus altissima, and the evergreen shrubs, Codiaeum variegatum and Fagraea ceilanica. A higher proportion of grooves or larger stomata would increase the probability that the blade would capture PM_2.5. Third, the shrub RGB demonstrated the best performance in terms of pollutant dispersion; its PM_2.5 concentration at the respiratory height (RH, 1.5 m) on the pedestrian crossing was 15-20% lower than the other RGB configurations. In terms of pollutant deposition, the arbor + shrub composite RGB was two-fold better than the other RGB configurations. Moreover, it was more advantageous to plant shrub RGBs in street canyons to achieve a balance between the lowest concentration and the largest deposition of PM_2.5 pollutants. The findings of this study will facilitate the RGB configurations with good dust retention ability.

A general trait-based modelling framework for revealing patterns of airborne fungal dispersal threats to agriculture and native flora

Fungal plant pathogens are of economic and ecological importance to global agriculture and natural ecosystems. Long-distance atmospheric dispersal of fungal spores (LAD) can pose threats to agricultural and native vegetation lands. An understanding of such patterns of fungal spore dispersal and invasion pathways can provide valuable insights into plant protection. Spore traits affect their dispersal abilities. We propose a general trait-based framework for modelling LAD to reveal dispersal patterns and pathways, and assess subsequent threats of arrival (TOA) quantitatively in the context of biosecurity. To illustrate the framework, we present a study of Australia and its surrounding land masses. The overall dispersal pattern covered almost the entire continent of Australia. Fungal spores in the size class of 10 and 20 µm (aerodynamic diameter) posed the greatest TOA. Our study shows the effects of morphological traits on these potential TOA, and how they varied between source regions, size classes, and seasons. Our framework revealed spore dispersal patterns and pathways. It also facilitates comparisons of spatio-temporal dispersal dynamics among fungal classes, gaining insights into atmospheric long-distance dispersal of fungi as a whole, and provides a basis for assessing fungal pest threats in potential source regions based on easily measured spore characteristics.

Seed dispersal by wind decreases when plants are water-stressed, potentially counteracting species coexistence and niche evolution

Hydrology is a major environmental factor determining plant fitness, and hydrological niche segregation (HNS) has been widely used to explain species coexistence. Nevertheless, the distribution of plant species along hydrological gradients does not only depend on their hydrological niches but also depend on their seed dispersal, with dispersal either weakening or reinforcing the effects of HNS on coexistence. However, it is poorly understood how seed dispersal responds to hydrological conditions. To close this gap, we conducted a common-garden experiment exposing five wind-dispersed plant species (Bellis perennis, Chenopodium album, Crepis sancta, Hypochaeris glabra, and Hypochaeris radicata) to different hydrological conditions. We quantified the effects of hydrological conditions on seed production and dispersal traits, and simulated seed dispersal distances with a mechanistic dispersal model. We found species-specific responses of seed production, seed dispersal traits, and predicted dispersal distances to hydrological conditions. Despite these species-specific responses, there was a general positive relationship between seed production and dispersal distance: Plants growing in favorable hydrological conditions not only produce more seeds but also disperse them over longer distances. This arises mostly because plants growing in favorable environments grow taller and thus disperse their seeds over longer distances. We postulate that the positive relationship between seed production and dispersal may reduce the concentration of each species to the environments favorable for it, thus counteracting species coexistence. Moreover, the resulting asymmetrical gene flow from favorable to stressful habitats may slow down the microevolution of hydrological niches, causing evolutionary niche conservatism. Accounting for context-dependent seed dispersal should thus improve ecological and evolutionary models for the spatial dynamics of plant populations and communities.

Maternal Environmental Light Conditions Affect the Morphological Allometry and Dispersal Potential of Acer palmatum Samaras

Seed dispersal plays critical roles in determining species survival and community structures. Since the dispersal is biologically under maternal control, it is hypothesized that intraspecific variation of dispersal potential and associated traits of seeds (diaspores) should be influenced by maternal habitat quality. We tested this hypothesis by examining the effects of maternal environmental light condition on morphological traits and descending performance of nearly 1800 wind-dispersed samaras collected from maple species Acer palmatum. Results showed that samaras produced by trees from shaded microhabitats had greater dispersal potential, in terms of slower terminal velocity of descent, than those produced in open microhabitats. This advantage was largely attributed to morphological plasticity. On average, samaras produced in shaded microhabitats, as compared to those produced in open habitats, had lower wing loading by only reducing weight but not area. In allometric details, in the large size range, samaras from shaded microhabitats had larger areas than those from open microhabitats; in the small size range, samaras from shaded microhabitats had wider wings. These findings suggest that greater dispersal potential of samaras in response to stressful maternal light environment reflected an active maternal control through the morphological allometry of samaras.

Effect of the local wind reduction zone on seed dispersal from a single shrub element on sparsely vegetated land

Accurate predictions of seed dispersal kernels are crucial for understanding both vegetation communities and landscape dynamics. The influences of many factors, including the physical properties of seeds, the time-averaged wind speed and the wind turbulence, on seed dispersal have been studied. However, the influence of local wind speed reduction around a single shrub element (e.g. a small patch of scrub) on seed dispersal is still not well understood. Here, the spatial distribution of the wind intensity (represented by the wind friction speed u _*) around a single shrub element is described, with an emphasis on the variation in the streamwise direction, and assuming that the time-averaged lateral and vertical speeds are equal to zero. The trajectories of the seeds were numerically simulated using a Lagrangian stochastic model that includes the effects of wind turbulence and particle inertia. The patterns of seed deposition with and without the effect of local wind reduction were compared. The variation in seed deposition with changing wind intensity, release height and shrub porosity were also simulated. The simulation results revealed that the local wind reduction increased seed deposition in nearby regions and therefore decreased seed deposition in the regions farther away. Local wind reduction had a greater impact on short-distance dispersal than on long-distance dispersal. Moreover, the dispersal in the circumferential direction decreased once the motion of a seed moving in the streamwise direction was reduced due to the local wind reduction. As the wind intensity and release height increased, the effect of local wind reduction on seed dispersal weakened. Seed dispersal was both wider and farther as the shrub porosity increased. These results may help explain the disagreement between the mechanistic models and the fitting curves in real cases. In addition, the results of this study may improve the currently used mechanistic models by either increasing their flexibility in case studies or by helping explain the variations in the observed distributions.

A simple mechanistic model of the invasive species Heracleum sosnowskyi propagule dispersal by wind

Background

Invasive species are one of the key elements of human-mediated ecosystem degradation and ecosystem services impairment worldwide. Dispersal of propagules is the first stage of plant species spread and strongly influences the dynamics of biological invasion. Therefore, distance prediction for invasive species spread is critical for invasion management. Heracleum sosnowskyi is one of the most dangerous invasive species with wind-dispersed propagules (seeds) across Eastern Europe. This study developed a simple mechanistic model for H. sosnowskyi propagule dispersal and their distances with an accuracy comparable to that of empirical measurements.

Methods

We measured and compared the propagule traits (terminal velocity, mass, area, and wing loading) and release height for H. sosnowskyi populations from two geographically distant regions of European Russia. We tested two simple mechanistic models: a ballistic model and a wind gradient model using identical artificial propagules. The artificial propagules were made of colored paper with a mass, area, wing loading, and terminal velocity close to those of natural H. sosnowskyi mericarps.

Results

The wind gradient model produced the best results. The first calculations of maximum possible propagule transfer distance by wind using the model and data from weather stations showed that the role of wind as a vector of long-distance dispersal for invasive Heracleum species was strongly underestimated. The published dataset with H. sosnowskyi propagule traits and release heights allows for modeling of the propagules' dispersal distances by wind at any geographical point within their entire invasion range using data from the closest weather stations. The proposed simple model for the prediction of H. sosnowskyi propagule dispersal by wind may be included in planning processes for managing invasion of this species.

Odor of achlorophyllous plants' seeds drives seed-dispersing ants

Seed dispersal by ants is an important means of migration for plants. Many myrmecochorous plants have specialized appendages in their seeds called elaiosome, which provides nutritional rewards for ants, and enable effective seed dispersal. However, some nonmyrmecochorous seeds without elaiosomes are also dispersed by ant species, suggesting the additional mechanisms other than elaiosomes for seed dispersal by ants. The seeds of the achlorophyllous and myco-heterotrophic herbaceous plant Monotropastrum humile are very small without elaiosomes; we investigated whether odor of the seeds could mediate seed dispersal by ants. We performed a bioassay using seeds of M. humile and the ant Nylanderia flavipes to demonstrate ant-mediated seed dispersal. We also analyzed the volatile odors emitted from M. humile seeds and conducted bioassays using dummy seeds coated with seed volatiles. Although elaiosomes were absent from the M. humile seeds, the ants carried the seeds to their nests. They also carried the dummy seeds coated with the seed volatile mixture to the nest and left some dummy seeds inside the nest and discarded the rest of the dummy seeds outside the nest with a bias toward specific locations, which might be conducive to germination. We concluded that, in M. humile seeds, volatile odor mixtures were sufficient to induce seed-carrying behavior by the ants even without elaiosomes.

Global wind patterns shape genetic differentiation, asymmetric gene flow, and genetic diversity in trees

Wind disperses the pollen and seeds of many plants, but little is known about whether and how it shapes large-scale landscape genetic patterns. We address this question by a synthesis and reanalysis of genetic data from more than 1,900 populations of 97 tree and shrub species around the world, using a newly developed framework for modeling long-term landscape connectivity by wind currents. We show that wind shapes three independent aspects of landscape genetics in plants with wind pollination or seed dispersal: populations linked by stronger winds are more genetically similar, populations linked by directionally imbalanced winds exhibit asymmetric gene flow ratios, and downwind populations have higher genetic diversity. For each of these distinct hypotheses, partial correlations between the respective wind and genetic metrics (controlling for distance and climate) are positive for a significant majority of wind-dispersed or wind-pollinated genetic data sets and increase significantly across functional groups expected to be increasingly influenced by wind. Together, these results indicate that the geography of both wind strength and wind direction play important roles in shaping large-scale genetic patterns across the world's forests. These findings have implications for various aspects of basic plant ecology and evolution, as well as the response of biodiversity to future global change.

Multi-Scale Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne disease transmission is central to many scientific disciplines including agriculture, veterinary biosafety, medicine, and public health. Legal and regulatory standards are in place to prevent agricultural, nosocomial, and community airborne disease transmission. However, the overall importance of the airborne pathway is underappreciated, e.g.,, US National Library of Medicine's Medical Subjects Headings (MESH) thesaurus lacks an airborne disease transmission indexing term. This has practical consequences as airborne precautions to control epidemic disease spread may not be taken when airborne transmission is important, but unrecognized. Publishing clearer practical methodological guidelines for surveillance studies and disease outbreak evaluations could help address this situation.To inform future work, this paper highlights selected, well-established airborne transmission events - largely cases replicated in multiple, independently conducted scientific studies. Methodologies include field experiments, modeling, epidemiology studies, disease outbreak investigations and mitigation studies. Collectively, this literature demonstrates that airborne viruses, bacteria, and fungal pathogens have the capability to cause disease in plants, animals, and humans over multiple distances - from near range (< 5 m) to continental (> 500 km) in scale. The plausibility and implications of undetected airborne disease transmission are discussed, including the notable underreporting of disease burden for several airborne transmitted diseases.

Seed dispersal as a search strategy: dynamic and fragmented landscapes select for multi-scale movement strategies in plants

BACKGROUND

Plant dispersal is a critical factor driving ecological responses to global changes. Knowledge on the mechanisms of dispersal is rapidly advancing, but selective pressures responsible for the evolution of dispersal strategies remain elusive. Recent advances in animal movement ecology identified general strategies that may optimize efficiency in animal searches for food or habitat. Here we explore the potential for evolution of similar general movement strategies for plants.

METHODS

We propose that seed dispersal in plants can be viewed as a strategic search for suitable habitat, where the probability of finding such locations has been optimized through evolution of appropriate dispersal kernels. Using model simulations, we demonstrate how dispersal strategies can optimize key dispersal trade-offs between finding habitat, avoiding kin competition, and colonizing new patches. These trade-offs depend strongly on the landscape, resulting in a tight link between optimal dispersal strategy and spatiotemporal habitat distribution.

RESULTS

Our findings reveal that multi-scale seed dispersal strategies that combine a broad range of dispersal scales, including Lévy-like dispersal, are optimal across a wide range of dynamic and patchy landscapes. At the extremes, static and patchy landscapes select for dispersal strategies dominated by short distances, while uniform and highly unpredictable landscapes both select for dispersal strategies dominated by long distances.

CONCLUSIONS

By viewing plant seed dispersal as a strategic search for suitable habitat, we provide a reference framework for the analysis of plant dispersal data. Consideration of the entire dispersal kernel, including distances across the full range of scales, is key. This reference framework helps identify plant species' dispersal strategies, the evolutionary forces determining these strategies and their ecological consequences, such as a potential mismatch between plant dispersal strategy and altered spatiotemporal habitat dynamics due to land use change. Our perspective opens up directions for future studies, including exploration of composite search behaviour and 'informed searches' in plant species with directed dispersal.

Wing loading, not terminal velocity, is the best parameter to predict capacity of diaspores for secondary wind dispersal

Lift-off velocity may be the most useful surrogate to measure the secondary dispersal capacity of diaspores. However, the most important diaspore attribute determining diaspore lift-off velocity is unclear. Furthermore, it is not known whether terminal velocity used to characterize the primary dispersal capacity of diaspores can also be used to predict their secondary wind dispersal capacity. Here, we investigate how diaspore attributes are related to lift-off velocity. Thirty-six species with diaspores differing in mass, shape index, projected area, wing loading, and terminal velocity were used in a wind tunnel to determine the relationship between diaspore attributes and lift-off velocity. We found that diaspore attributes largely explained the variation in lift-off velocity, and wing loading, not terminal velocity, was the best parameter for predicting lift-off velocity of diaspores during secondary wind dispersal. The relative importance of diaspore attributes in determining lift-off velocity was modified by both upwind and downwind slope directions and type of diaspore appendage. These findings allow us to predict diaspore dispersal behaviors using readily available diaspore functional attributes, and they indicate that wing loading is the best proxy for estimating the capacity for secondary dispersal by wind.

Advancing an interdisciplinary framework to study seed dispersal ecology

Although dispersal is generally viewed as a crucial determinant for the fitness of any organism, our understanding of its role in the persistence and spread of plant populations remains incomplete. Generalizing and predicting dispersal processes are challenging due to context dependence of seed dispersal, environmental heterogeneity and interdependent processes occurring over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Current population models often use simple phenomenological descriptions of dispersal processes, limiting their ability to examine the role of population persistence and spread, especially under global change. To move seed dispersal ecology forward, we need to evaluate the impact of any single seed dispersal event within the full spatial and temporal context of a plant's life history and environmental variability that ultimately influences a population's ability to persist and spread. In this perspective, we provide guidance on integrating empirical and theoretical approaches that account for the context dependency of seed dispersal to improve our ability to generalize and predict the consequences of dispersal, and its anthropogenic alteration, across systems. We synthesize suitable theoretical frameworks for this work and discuss concepts, approaches and available data from diverse subdisciplines to help operationalize concepts, highlight recent breakthroughs across research areas and discuss ongoing challenges and open questions. We address knowledge gaps in the movement ecology of seeds and the integration of dispersal and demography that could benefit from such a synthesis. With an interdisciplinary perspective, we will be able to better understand how global change will impact seed dispersal processes, and potential cascading effects on plant population persistence, spread and biodiversity.

Timing of fungal spore release dictates survival during atmospheric transport

Fungi move between habitats by dispersing small spores through the atmosphere. We ask what causes some species to release spores at a specific time every day versus irregularly. We find that timing of spore release dictates how long spores remain in the atmosphere before returning to the ground: Spores released at night are likely to travel for hours while spores released during the day may linger for days. Drivers are stronger in lower, warmer latitudes. Because spores in the open atmosphere are likely to die from prolonged exposure to light and air, the timing of spore release will impact survival. We have discovered a constraint likely to shape observed patterns of spore liberation.

Fungi disperse spores to move across landscapes and spore liberation takes different patterns. Many species release spores intermittently; others release spores at specific times of day. Despite intriguing evidence of periodicity, why (and if) the timing of spore release would matter to a fungus remains an open question. Here we use state-of-the-art numerical simulations of atmospheric transport and meteorological data to follow the trajectory of many spores in the atmosphere at different times of day, seasons, and locations across North America. While individual spores follow unpredictable trajectories due to turbulence, in the aggregate patterns emerge: Statistically, spores released during the day fly for several days, whereas spores released at night return to ground within a few hours. Differences are caused by intense turbulence during the day and weak turbulence at night. The pattern is widespread but its reliability varies; for example, day/night patterns are stronger in southern regions. Results provide testable hypotheses explaining both intermittent and regular patterns of spore release as strategies to maximize spore survival in the air. Species with short-lived spores reproducing where there is strong turbulence during the day, for example in Mexico, maximize survival by releasing spores at night. Where cycles are weak, for example in Canada during fall, there is no benefit to releasing spores at the same time every day. Our data challenge the perception of fungal dispersal as risky, wasteful, and beyond control of individuals; our data suggest the timing of spore liberation may be finely tuned to maximize fitness during atmospheric transport.

Potential differences in seed dispersals of low-height vegetation between single element and windbreak-like clumps

Wind speed is one of the most important factors for seed wind dispersal. A wind speed reduction region, which could be influenced by vegetation arrangement, will form in the lee of vegetation and therefore affects the seed dispersal. Here, by taking shrub as an example, quantitative differences in seed dispersals of low vegetation between single element and windbreak-like clumps are numerically investigated. The local variation of stream-wise wind speed is focused. Empirically parameterized functions of leeward wind distributions are employed. It reveals that the accumulative probability of dispersed seeds from a point source with considering leeward wind reduction could be well fitted by a logistic function. For a fixed release height or vegetation porosity, accumulative probabilities for single element and those for windbreak-like clumps would intersect at a leeward location. This intersection location decreases linearly with release height but exponentially with porosity. The fitting parameter r 0 (the center of logistic function) for single element increases as the same manner for windbreak-like clumps, with regard to the increase of release height, porosity, and height. But, the increasing rates for single element are higher than those for windbreak-like clumps. The fitting parameter p (the power index of logistic function) for single element is generally larger than that for windbreak-like clumps. With the increase of release height, p decreases at first but increases then for single element, while it shows opposite trend for windbreak-like clumps. p decreases with porosity for both single element and windbreak-like clumps. But, the decreasing rate for single element is lower than that for windbreak-like clumps. p increases exponentially with height for windbreak-like clumps, while it almost keeps constant for single element. These results suggest the potential importance of vegetation arrangement on seed dispersal and therefore possibly provide additional reason for the disagreement among observed dispersal kernels.

Relationship between seed morphological traits and wind dispersal trajectory

The structure and dynamics of plant populations and communities are largely influenced by seed dispersal. How the wind dispersal trajectory of seeds shifts with differences in seed morphology remains unknown. We used a wind tunnel and video camera to track the dispersal trajectory of seven species of Calligonum whose seeds have different kinds of appendages and other morphological traits, using variable wind speeds and release heights to determine the relationship between seed morphological traits and wind dispersal trajectory. Concave-, straight-line-, horizontal-projectile- and projectile-shaped trajectories were found. Dispersal trajectories such as the horizontal projectile (HP) and projectile (P) tended to have a long dispersal distance. Straight line (SL) and concave curve (CC) trajectories tended to have a short dispersal distance. Seeds with bristles and large mass tended to have SL and CC trajectories, those with wings or balloon and small mass tended to have HP and P trajectories. Wind speed tended to have a stronger influence on the dispersal trajectory of light and low-wing-loading seeds, and release height tended to have a stronger influence on the dispersal trajectory of heavy and high-wing-loading seeds. Thus, seed wind dispersal trajectory is not only determined by seed morphological characteristics but also by environmental factors such as wind speed and release height.

The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions

The distribution and abundance of plants across the world depends in part on their ability to move, which is commonly characterized by a dispersal kernel. For seeds, the total dispersal kernel (TDK) describes the combined influence of all primary, secondary and higher-order dispersal vectors on the overall dispersal kernel for a plant individual, population, species or community. Understanding the role of each vector within the TDK, and their combined influence on the TDK, is critically important for being able to predict plant responses to a changing biotic or abiotic environment. In addition, fully characterizing the TDK by including all vectors may affect predictions of population spread. Here, we review existing research on the TDK and discuss advances in empirical, conceptual modelling and statistical approaches that will facilitate broader application. The concept is simple, but few examples of well-characterized TDKs exist. We find that significant empirical challenges exist, as many studies do not account for all dispersal vectors (e.g. gravity, higher-order dispersal vectors), inadequately measure or estimate long-distance dispersal resulting from multiple vectors and/or neglect spatial heterogeneity and context dependence. Existing mathematical and conceptual modelling approaches and statistical methods allow fitting individual dispersal kernels and combining them to form a TDK; these will perform best if robust prior information is available. We recommend a modelling cycle to parameterize TDKs, where empirical data inform models, which in turn inform additional data collection. Finally, we recommend that the TDK concept be extended to account for not only where seeds land, but also how that location affects the likelihood of establishing and producing a reproductive adult, i.e. the total effective dispersal kernel.

Additive effects of connectivity provided by different habitat types drive plant assembly

How connectivity affects plant assemblages is a central issue in landscape ecology. So far, empirical studies have produced contradictory results, possibly because studies: (1) inaccurately assess connectivity by prioritizing the respective effect of the type of habitat on plant assemblages and (2) omit the range of possible plant responses to connectivity depending on dispersal vectors. We focused on three dominant habitat types in agricultural landscapes (woodland, grassland and cropland), and analysed the effect of connectivity on herbaceous plant assemblage similarity for three primary dispersal modes (animal-dispersed, wind-dispersed and unassisted). Using circuit theory, we measured connectivity provided by woodland, grassland and cropland habitats independently. The similarity of plant assemblages was evaluated relative to the random expectation based on the regional pool. Overall, plant assemblage similarity in woodlands and temporary grasslands was dependent on connectivity, but not in wheat croplands. Only animal-dispersed species responded to connectivity. The similarity of animal-dispersed assemblages in woodlands was increased by the connectivity provided by woodland habitats, but was reduced by cropland habitats, whereas in temporary grasslands, similarity was increased by the connectivity provided by cropland habitats. Our results suggest that animal-dispersed species supplement their dispersal pathways, thus improving our knowledge of plant assembly rules in fragmented landscapes.

Wind speed acceleration around a single low solid roughness in atmospheric boundary layer

Air flow around vegetation is crucial for particle transport (e.g., dust grains, seeds and pollens) in atmospheric boundary layer. However, wind acceleration around vegetation is still not well understood. In this work, air flow around a single low solid roughness element (representing a dense shrub patch or clump) in atmospheric boundary layer was numerically investigated, with emphasizing wind acceleration zone located at the two lateral sides. The maximum value of dimensionless horizontal wind speed as well as its location of occurrence and the geometrical morphology and area of wind acceleration zone were systematically studied. It reveals that they could alter significantly with the change of roughness basal shape. The maximum value of dimensionless resultant horizontal speed decreases monotonously with observation height, while the area of wind acceleration zone shows a non-linear response to observation height. The dependence of the maximum speed location on observation height is generally weak, but may vary with roughness basal shape. These findings could well explain the disagreement among previous field observations. We hope that these findings could be helpful to improve our understanding of aeolian transport in sparsely vegetated land in arid and semi-arid region, and wind dispersals of seeds and pollens from shrub vegetation.

Consequences of intraspecific variation in seed dispersal for plant demography, communities, evolution and global change

As the single opportunity for plants to move, seed dispersal has an important impact on plant fitness, species distributions and patterns of biodiversity. However, models that predict dynamics such as risk of extinction, range shifts and biodiversity loss tend to rely on the mean value of parameters and rarely incorporate realistic dispersal mechanisms. By focusing on the mean population value, variation among individuals or variability caused by complex spatial and temporal dynamics is ignored. This calls for increased efforts to understand individual variation in dispersal and integrate it more explicitly into population and community models involving dispersal. However, the sources, magnitude and outcomes of intraspecific variation in dispersal are poorly characterized, limiting our understanding of the role of dispersal in mediating the dynamics of communities and their response to global change. In this manuscript, we synthesize recent research that examines the sources of individual variation in dispersal and emphasize its implications for plant fitness, populations and communities. We argue that this intraspecific variation in seed dispersal does not simply add noise to systems, but, in fact, alters dispersal processes and patterns with consequences for demography, communities, evolution and response to anthropogenic changes. We conclude with recommendations for moving this field of research forward.

Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation

Seed dispersal enables plants to reach hospitable germination sites and escape natural enemies. Understanding when and how much seed dispersal matters to plant fitness is critical for understanding plant population and community dynamics. At the same time, the complexity of factors that determine if a seed will be successfully dispersed and subsequently develop into a reproductive plant is daunting. Quantifying all factors that may influence seed dispersal effectiveness for any potential seed-vector relationship would require an unrealistically large amount of time, materials and financial resources. On the other hand, being able to make dispersal predictions is critical for predicting whether single species and entire ecosystems will be resilient to global change. Building on current frameworks, we here posit that seed dispersal ecology should adopt plant functional groups as analytical units to reduce this complexity to manageable levels. Functional groups can be used to distinguish, for their constituent species, whether it matters (i) if seeds are dispersed, (ii) into what context they are dispersed and (iii) what vectors disperse them. To avoid overgeneralization, we propose that the utility of these functional groups may be assessed by generating predictions based on the groups and then testing those predictions against species-specific data. We suggest that data collection and analysis can then be guided by robust functional group definitions. Generalizing across similar species in this way could help us to better understand the population and community dynamics of plants and tackle the complexity of seed dispersal as well as its disruption.

A Spatio-Temporal Exposure-Hazard Model for Assessing Biological Risk and Impact

We developed a simulation model for quantifying the spatio-temporal distribution of contaminants (e.g., xenobiotics) and assessing the risk of exposed populations at the landscape level. The model is a spatio-temporal exposure-hazard model based on (i) tools of stochastic geometry (marked polygon and point processes) for structuring the landscape and describing the exposed individuals, (ii) a dispersal kernel describing the dissemination of contaminants from polygon sources, and (iii) an (eco)toxicological equation describing the toxicokinetics and dynamics of contaminants in affected individuals. The model was implemented in the briskaR package (biological risk assessment with R) of the R software. This article presents the model background, the use of the package in an illustrative example, namely, the effect of genetically modified maize pollen on nontarget Lepidoptera, and typical comparisons of landscape configurations that can be carried out with our model (different configurations lead to different mortality rates in the treated example). In real case studies, parameters and parametric functions encountered in the model will have to be precisely specified to obtain realistic measures of risk and impact and accurate comparisons of landscape configurations. Our modeling framework could be applied to study other risks related to agriculture, for instance, pathogen spread in crops or livestock, and could be adapted to cope with other hazards such as toxic emissions from industrial areas having health effects on surrounding populations. Moreover, the R package has the potential to help risk managers in running quantitative risk assessments and testing management strategies.

An ecophysiologically informed model of seed dispersal by orangutans: linking animal movement with gut passage across time and space

Fauna-mediated ecosystem service provision (e.g. seed dispersal) can be difficult to quantify and predict because it is underpinned by the shifting niches of multiple interacting organisms. Such interactions are especially complex in tropical ecosystems, including endangered peat forests of Central Borneo, a biodiversity hot spot and home to the critically endangered orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii). We combined studies of the digestive physiology of captive orangutans in Australia with detailed field studies of wild orangutans in the Natural Laboratory of Peat-Swamp Forest of Sabangau, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. By measuring the gut transit time (TT) of indigestible seed mimics (beads) in captivity and applying this as a temporal constraint to movement data of wild orangutans, we developed a mechanistic, time-explicit spatial model to project the seed dispersal patterns by these large-bodied, arboreal frugivores. We followed seven orangutans and established home range kernels using Time Local Convex Hull (T-LoCoH) modelling. This allowed us to model individual orangutan movements and to adjust these models according to gut transit times to estimate seed dispersal kernels. Female movements were conservative (core ranges of 55 and 52 ha in the wet and dry seasons, respectively) and revisitation rates to the same location of n = 4 in each 24-h block. Male movements were more unpredictable, yielding fragmented core ranges and revisitation rates to the same location of only 1.2 times each 24 h; males also demonstrated large disjunctions where they moved rapidly over long distances and were frequently lost from view. Seed dispersal kernels were nested predictably within the core ranges of females, but not males. We used the T-LoCoH approach to analyse movement ecology, which offered a powerful tool to predict the primary deposition of seeds by orangutans, thereby providing a reliable method for making a priori predictions of seed dispersal dynamics by other frugivores in novel ecosystems.

Isotropic and anisotropic processes influence fine-scale spatial genetic structure of a keystone tropical plant

Limited seed or pollen dispersal enhances spatial genetic relatedness between individuals (fine-scale spatial genetic structure, FSGS), which usually decreases as a function of physical distance. However, such isotropic pattern of FSGS may not always occur when spatially asymmetric processes, for instance, wind direction during dispersal, are considered in wind-pollinated and -dispersed plants. This study assessed the pattern of FSGS in the keystone tropical wetland plant Cyperus papyrus (papyrus) as a function of these isotropic and anisotropic processes. We tested the hypothesis that the FSGS would be influenced by predominant wind direction during pollen and seed dispersal, as well as by the physical distance between individuals. We genotyped a total of 510 adults and 407 juveniles from three papyrus swamps (Ethiopia) using 15 microsatellite markers. In addition, the contemporary directional dispersal by wind was evaluated by seed release-recapture experiments and complemented with parentage analysis. Adults and juveniles differed in the strength of isotropic FSGS ranging from 0.09 to 0.13 and 0.12 to 0.16, respectively, and this suggests variation in dispersal distance. Anisotropic FSGS was found to be a function of asymmetric wind direction during dispersal/pollination that varied between sites. Historical gene dispersal distance was astoundingly low (<4 m), possibly due to localized seed rain. According to our contemporary dispersal estimates, mean pollen dispersal distances were longer than those of seed dispersal (101 and <55 m, respectively). More than two-thirds of seeds and half of pollen grains were locally dispersed (≤80 m). The difference in historical and contemporary dispersal distance probably resulted from the asymmetric wind direction due to change in vegetation cover in the surrounding matrix. We further concluded that, in addition to wind direction, post-dispersal processes could influence gene dispersal distance inferred from the FSGS.