A theoretical model linking interspecific variation in density dependence to species abundances

Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

Contribution of conspecific negative density dependence to species diversity is increasing towards low environmental limitation in Japanese forests

Species coexistence is a result of biotic interactions, environmental and historical conditions. The Janzen-Connell hypothesis assumes that conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) is one of the local processes maintaining high species diversity by decreasing population growth rates at high densities. However, the contribution of CNDD to species richness variation across environmental gradients remains unclear. In 32 large forest plots all over the Japanese archipelago covering > 40,000 individual trees of > 300 species and based on size distributions, we analysed the strength of CNDD of individual species and its contribution to species number and diversity across altitude, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and maximum snow depth gradients. The strength of CNDD was increasing towards low altitudes and high tree species number and diversity. The effect of CNDD on species number was changing across altitude, temperature and snow depth gradients and their combined effects contributed 11–18% of the overall explained variance. Our results suggest that CNDD can work as a mechanism structuring forest communities in the Japanese archipelago. Strong CNDD was observed to be connected with high species diversity under low environmental limitations where local biotic interactions are expected to be stronger than in niche-based community assemblies under high environmental filtering.

Globally, plant-soil feedbacks are weak predictors of plant abundance

Plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) have been shown to strongly affect plant performance under controlled conditions, and PSFs are thought to have far reaching consequences for plant population dynamics and the structuring of plant communities. However, thus far the relationship between PSF and plant species abundance in the field is not consistent. Here, we synthesize PSF experiments from tropical forests to semiarid grasslands, and test for a positive relationship between plant abundance in the field and PSFs estimated from controlled bioassays. We meta-analyzed results from 22 PSF experiments and found an overall positive correlation (0.12 ≤  r ¯  ≤ 0.32) between plant abundance in the field and PSFs across plant functional types (herbaceous and woody plants) but also variation by plant functional type. Thus, our analysis provides quantitative support that plant abundance has a general albeit weak positive relationship with PSFs across ecosystems. Overall, our results suggest that harmful soil biota tend to accumulate around and disproportionately impact species that are rare. However, data for the herbaceous species, which are most common in the literature, had no significant abundance-PSFs relationship. Therefore, we conclude that further work is needed within and across biomes, succession stages and plant types, both under controlled and field conditions, while separating PSF effects from other drivers (e.g., herbivory, competition, disturbance) of plant abundance to tease apart the role of soil biota in causing patterns of plant rarity versus commonness.

The effects of density dependence and habitat preference on species coexistence and relative abundance

In plant communities, some mechanisms maintain differences in species' abundances, while other mechanisms promote coexistence. Asymmetry in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) and/or habitat preference is hypothesized to shape relative species abundance, whereas community compensatory trends (CCTs) induced by community-level CNDD and heterospecific facilitation are hypothesized to promote coexistence. We use survey data from three 1-ha permanent dynamic plots in a subtropical forest over the course of a decade to find out which of these processes are important and at which life-history stages (the seedling, sapling, and juvenile stages) they exert their effects. CNDD was not related to abundance in any of the life-history stages. Suitable habitats positively influenced plant abundance at all tested life stages, but especially so for juveniles. Community-level CNDD of seedling neighbors was detected at the seedling stage, while heterospecific facilitation was detected across all tested life-history stages. A CCT in seedling survival was detected, but there was no evidence for such trends across the other life-history stages. Altogether, our results suggest that habitat specificity increases the rarity of species, whereas a CCT at the seedling stage, which is likely to be induced by CNDD and heterospecific facilitation, enables such species to maintain their populations.

Soil biota increase the likelihood for coexistence among competing plant species

Theory predicts that stable species coexistence will occur when population growth rates of competitively dominant species are suppressed when at high conspecific density. Although there is now compelling evidence that plant communities exhibit negative density dependence, the relative importance of the underlying processes leading to these patterns is rarely tested. We coupled reciprocal greenhouse and field experiments with community dynamics modeling to untangle the relative importance of soil biota from competition as stabilizing forces to coexistence. We found that (1) plant-soil biotic interactions compared to competitive interactions were stronger stabilizing forces, (2) only the strength of plant-soil biotic interactions was dependent on plant evolutionary history, and (3) the variation in the strength of plant-soil biotic interactions was correlated with relative abundance patterns in an opposite way than was the variation in the strength of competitive interactions. Collectively, our results demonstrate the fundamental role soil biota have in maintaining plant community diversity.

Janzen-Connell Effects Are a Weak Impediment to Competitive Exclusion

AbstractA goal of ecology is to identify the stabilizing mechanisms that maintain species diversity in the face of competitive exclusion and drift. For tropical forest tree communities, it has been hypothesized that high diversity is maintained via Janzen-Connell effects, whereby host-specific natural enemies prevent any one species from becoming too abundant. Here we explore the plausibility of this hypothesis with theoretical models. We confirm a previous result that when added to a model with drift but no competitive exclusion-that is, a neutral model where intrinsic fitnesses are perfectly equalized across species-Janzen-Connell effects maintain very high species richness that scales strongly with community size. However, when competitive exclusion is introduced-that is, when intrinsic fitnesses vary across species-the number of species maintained by Janzen-Connell effects is substantially reduced and scales much less strongly with community size. Because fitness variation is pervasive in nature, we conclude that the potential of Janzen-Connell effects to maintain diversity is probably weak and that the mechanism does not yet provide a sufficient explanation for the observed high diversity of tropical forest tree communities. We also show that, surprisingly, dispersal limitation can further reduce the ability of Janzen-Connell effects to maintain diversity.

Resistance Genes Affect How Pathogens Maintain Plant Abundance and Diversity

AbstractSpecialized pathogens are thought to maintain plant community diversity; however, most ecological studies treat pathogens as a black box. Here we develop a theoretical model to test how the impact of specialized pathogens changes when plant resistance genes (R-genes) mediate susceptibility. This work synthesizes two major hypotheses: the gene-for-gene model of pathogen resistance and the Janzen-Connell hypothesis of pathogen-mediated coexistence. We examine three scenarios. First, R-genes do not affect seedling survival; in this case, pathogens promote diversity. Second, seedlings are protected from pathogens when their R-gene alleles and susceptibility differ from those of nearby conspecific adults, thereby reducing transmission. If resistance is not costly, pathogens are less able to promote diversity because populations with low R-gene diversity suffer higher mortality, putting those populations at a disadvantage and potentially causing their exclusion. R-gene diversity may also be reduced during population bottlenecks, creating a priority effect. Third, when R-genes affect survival but resistance is costly, populations can avoid extinction by losing resistance alleles, as they cease paying a cost that is unneeded. Thus, the impact pathogens can have on tree diversity depends on the mechanism of plant-pathogen interactions. Future empirical studies should examine which of these scenarios most closely reflects the real world.

Mutualist and pathogen traits interact to affect plant community structure in a spatially explicit model

Empirical studies show that plant-soil feedbacks (PSF) can generate negative density dependent (NDD) recruitment capable of maintaining plant community diversity at landscape scales. However, the observation that common plants often exhibit relatively weaker NDD than rare plants at local scales is difficult to reconcile with the maintenance of overall plant diversity. We develop a spatially explicit simulation model that tracks the community dynamics of microbial mutualists, pathogens, and their plant hosts. We find that net PSF effects vary as a function of both host abundance and key microbial traits (e.g., host affinity) in ways that are compatible with both common plants exhibiting relatively weaker local NDD, while promoting overall species diversity. The model generates a series of testable predictions linking key microbial traits and the relative abundance of host species, to the strength and scale of PSF and overall plant community diversity.

Plant-soil feedback effects altered by aboveground herbivory explain plant species abundance in the landscape

Relatively little is known about how plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) may affect plant growth in field conditions where factors such as herbivory may be important. Using a potted experiment in a grassland, we measured PSFs with and without aboveground insect herbivory for 20 plant species. We then compared PSF values to plant landscape abundance. Aboveground herbivory had a large negative effect on PSF values. For 15 of 20 species, PSFs were more negative with herbivory than without. This occurred because plant biomass on "home" soils was smaller with herbivory than without. PSF values with herbivory were correlated with plant landscape abundance, whereas PSF values without herbivory were not. Shoot nitrogen concentrations suggested that plants create soils that increase nitrogen uptake, but that greater shoot nitrogen values increase herbivory and that the net effect of positive PSF and greater aboveground herbivory is less aboveground biomass. Results provided clear evidence that PSFs alone have limited power in explaining species abundances and that herbivory has stronger effects on plant biomass and growth on the landscape. Our results provide a potential explanation for observed differences between greenhouse and field PSF experiments and suggest that PSF experiments need to consider important biotic interactions, like aboveground herbivory, particularly when the goal of PSF research is to understand plant growth in field conditions.

Tropical forests can maintain hyperdiversity because of enemies

Explaining the maintenance of tropical forest diversity under the countervailing forces of drift and competition poses a major challenge to ecological theory. Janzen-Connell effects, in which host-specific natural enemies restrict the recruitment of juveniles near conspecific adults, provide a potential mechanism. Janzen-Connell is strongly supported empirically, but existing theory does not address the stable coexistence of hundreds of species. Here we use high-performance computing and analytical models to demonstrate that tropical forest diversity can be maintained nearly indefinitely in a prolonged state of transient dynamics due to distance-responsive natural enemies. Further, we show that Janzen-Connell effects lead to community regulation of diversity by imposing a diversity-dependent cost to commonness and benefit to rarity. The resulting species-area and rank-abundance relationships are consistent with empirical results. Diversity maintenance over long time spans does not require dispersal from an external metacommunity, speciation, or resource niche partitioning, only a small zone around conspecific adults in which saplings fail to recruit. We conclude that the Janzen-Connell mechanism can explain the maintenance of tropical tree diversity while not precluding the operation of other niche-based mechanisms such as resource partitioning.

Tradeoffs in demographic mechanisms underlie differences in species abundance and stability

Understanding why some species are common and others are rare is a central question in ecology, and is critical for developing conservation strategies under global change. Rare species are typically considered to be more prone to extinction—but the fact they are rare can impede a general understanding of rarity vs. abundance. Here we develop and empirically test a framework to predict species abundances and stability using mechanisms governing population dynamics. Our results demonstrate that coexisting species with similar abundances can be shaped by different mechanisms (specifically, higher growth rates when rare vs. weaker negative density-dependence). Further, these dynamics influence population stability: species with higher intrinsic growth rates but stronger negative density-dependence were more stable and less sensitive to climate variability, regardless of abundance. This suggests that underlying mechanisms governing population dynamics, in addition to population size, may be critical indicators of population stability in an increasingly variable world.

Protection of rare species requires advanced understanding of the reasons for their rarity. Here, Hallett et al. show that potential growth rate and density dependence together predict rarity vs. abundance, and that the stability of species of similar sizes depends on the relative strength of these two mechanisms.

Live long and prosper: plant-soil feedback, lifespan, and landscape abundance covary

Plant soil feedbacks (PSFs) are thought to be important to plant growth and species coexistence, but most support for these hypotheses is derived from short-term greenhouse experiments. Here we use a seven-year, common garden experiment to measure PSFs for seven native and six nonnative species common to the western United States. We use these long-term, field-based estimates to test correlations between PSF and plant landscape abundance, species origin, functional type, and lifespan. To assess potential PSF mechanisms, we also measured soil microbial community composition, root biomass, nitrogen cycling, bulk density, penetration resistance, and shear strength. Plant abundance on the landscape and plant lifespan were positively correlated with PSFs, though this effect was due to the relationships for native plants. PSFs were correlated with indices of soil microbial community composition. Soil nutrient and physical traits and root biomass differed among species but were not correlated with PSF. While results must be taken with caution because only 13 species were examined, these species represent most of the dominant plant species in the system. Results suggest that native plant abundance is associated with the ability of long-lived plants to create positive plant-soil microbe interactions, while short-lived nonnative plants maintain dominance by avoiding soil-borne antagonists, increasing nitrogen cycling and dedicating resources to aboveground growth and reproduction rather than to belowground growth. Broadly, results suggest that PSFs are correlated with a suite of traits that determine plant abundance.

Interspecific variation in conspecific negative density dependence can make species less likely to coexist

Conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) is thought to promote plant species diversity. Theoretical studies showing the importance of CNDD often assumed that all species are equally susceptible to CNDD; however, recent empirical studies have shown species can differ greatly in their susceptibility to CNDD. Using a theoretical model, we show that interspecific variation in CNDD can dramatically alter its impact on diversity. First, if the most common species are the least regulated by CNDD, then the stabilising benefit of CNDD is reduced. Second, when seed dispersal is limited, seedlings that are susceptible to CNDD are at a competitive disadvantage. When parameterised with estimates of CNDD from a tropical tree community in Panama, our model suggests that the competitive inequalities caused by interspecific variation in CNDD may undermine many species' ability to persist. Thus, our model suggests that variable CNDD may make communities less stable, rather than more stable.

Frequency-dependent feedback constrains plant community coexistence

Ecological theory suggests that coexistence of many species within communities requires negative frequency-dependent feedbacks to prevent exclusion of the least fit species. For plant communities, empirical evidence of negative frequency dependence driving species coexistence and diversity patterns is rapidly accumulating, but connecting these findings to theory has been difficult as corresponding theoretical frameworks only consider small numbers of species. Here, we show how frequency-dependent feedback constrains community coexistence, regardless of the number of species and inherent fitness inequalities between them. Any interaction network can be characterized by a single community interaction coefficient, I_C, which determines whether community-level feedback is positive or negative. Negative feedback is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for persistence of the entire community. Even in cases where the coexistence equilibrium state cannot recover from perturbations, I_C < 0 can enable species persistence via cyclic succession. The number of coexisting species is predicted to increase with the average strength of negative feedback. This prediction is supported by patterns of tree species diversity in more than 200,000 deciduous forest plots in the eastern United States, which can be reproduced in simulations that span the observed range of community feedback. By providing a quantitative metric for the strength of negative feedback needed for coexistence, we can now integrate theory and empirical data to test whether observed feedback-diversity correlations are strong enough to infer causality.

Cross-scale neutral ecology and the maintenance of biodiversity

One of the first successes of neutral ecology was to predict realistically-broad distributions of rare and abundant species. However, it has remained an outstanding theoretical challenge to describe how this distribution of abundances changes with spatial scale, and this gap has hampered attempts to use observed species abundances as a way to quantify what non-neutral processes are needed to fully explain observed patterns. To address this, we introduce a new formulation of spatial neutral biodiversity theory and derive analytical predictions for the way abundance distributions change with scale. For tropical forest data where neutrality has been extensively tested before now, we apply this approach and identify an incompatibility between neutral fits at regional and local scales. We use this approach derive a sharp quantification of what remains to be explained by non-neutral processes at the local scale, setting a quantitative target for more general models for the maintenance of biodiversity.

Persistence and space preemption explain species-specific founder effects on the organization of marine sessile communities

Community assembly may not follow predictable successional stages, with a large fraction of the species pool constituted by potential pioneering species and successful founders defined through lottery. In such systems, priority effects may be relevant in the determination of trajectories of developing communities and hence diversity and assemblage structure at later advanced states. In order to assess how different founder species may trigger variable community trajectories and structures, we conducted an experimental study using subtidal sessile assemblages as model. We manipulated the identity of functionally different founders and initial colony size (a proxy of the time lag before the arrival of later species), and followed trajectories. We did not observe any effects of colony size on response variables, suggesting that priority effects take place even when the time lag between the establishment of pioneering species and late colonizers is very short. Late community structure at experimental panels that started either with the colonial ascidian Botrylloides nigrum, or the arborescent bryozoan Bugula neritina, was similar to control panels allowed natural assembling. In spite of high potential for fast space domination, and hence negative priority effects, B. nigrum suffered high mortality and did not persist throughout succession. Bugula neritina provided complex physical microhabitats through conspecific clustering that have enhanced larval settlement of late species arrivals, but no apparent facilitation was observed. Differently, panels founded by the encrusting bryozoan Schizoporella errata led to different and less diverse communities compared to naturally assembled panels, evidencing strong negative priority effects through higher persistence and space preemption. Schizoporella errata founder colonies inhibited further conspecific settlement, which may greatly relax intraspecific competition, allowing resource allocation to colony growth and space domination, thus reducing the chances for the establishment of other species.

Plant diversity increases with the strength of negative density dependence at the global scale

Theory predicts that higher biodiversity in the tropics is maintained by specialized interactions among plants and their natural enemies that result in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). By using more than 3000 species and nearly 2.4 million trees across 24 forest plots worldwide, we show that global patterns in tree species diversity reflect not only stronger CNDD at tropical versus temperate latitudes but also a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance. CNDD was stronger for rare species at tropical versus temperate latitudes, potentially causing the persistence of greater numbers of rare species in the tropics. Our study reveals fundamental differences in the nature of local-scale biotic interactions that contribute to the maintenance of species diversity across temperate and tropical communities.

Ecological genomics of tropical trees: how local population size and allelic diversity of resistance genes relate to immune responses, cosusceptibility to pathogens, and negative density dependence

In tropical forests, rarer species show increased sensitivity to species-specific soil pathogens and more negative effects of conspecific density on seedling survival (NDD). These patterns suggest a connection between ecology and immunity, perhaps because small population size disproportionately reduces genetic diversity of hyperdiverse loci such as immunity genes. In an experiment examining seedling roots from six species in one tropical tree community, we found that smaller populations have reduced amino acid diversity in pathogen resistance (R) genes but not the transcriptome in general. Normalized R gene amino acid diversity varied with local abundance and prior measures of differences in sensitivity to conspecific soil and NDD. After exposure to live soil, species with lower R gene diversity had reduced defence gene induction, more cosusceptibility of maternal cohorts to colonization by potentially pathogenic fungi, reduced root growth arrest (an R gene-mediated response) and their root-associated fungi showed lower induction of self-defence (antioxidants). Local abundance was not related to the ability to induce immune responses when pathogen recognition was bypassed by application of salicylic acid, a phytohormone that activates defence responses downstream of R gene signalling. These initial results support the hypothesis that smaller local tree populations have reduced R gene diversity and recognition-dependent immune responses, along with greater cosusceptibility to species-specific pathogens that may facilitate disease transmission and NDD. Locally rare species may be less able to increase their equilibrium abundance without genetic boosts to defence via immigration of novel R gene alleles from a larger and more diverse regional population.

Species with greater seed mass are more tolerant of conspecific neighbours: a key driver of early survival and future abundances in a tropical forest

Multiple niche-based processes including conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) determine plant regeneration and community structure. We ask how interspecific and intraspecific density-dependent interactions relate to plant life histories and associated functional traits. Using hierarchical models, we analysed how such interactions affected first-year survival of seedling recruits of 175 species in a tropical forest, and how species abundances and functional traits are related to interspecific variation in density-dependent effects. Conspecific seedling neighbour effects prevailed over the effects of larger conspecific and all heterospecific neighbours. Tolerance of seedling CNDD enhanced recruit survival and subsequent abundance, all of which were greater among larger seeded, slow-growing and well-defended species. Niche differentiation along the growth-survival trade-off and tolerance of seedling CNDD strongly correlated with regeneration success, with manifest consequences for community structure. The ability of larger seeded species to better tolerate CNDD suggests a novel mechanism for CNDD to contribute to seed-size variation and promote species coexistence through a tolerance-fecundity trade-off.

Lower within-community variance of negative density dependence increases forest diversity

Local abundance of adult trees impedes growth of conspecific seedlings through host-specific enemies, a mechanism first proposed by Janzen and Connell to explain plant diversity in forests. While several studies suggest the importance of this mechanism, there is still little information of how the variance of negative density dependence (NDD) affects diversity of forest communities. With computer simulations, we analyzed the impact of strength and variance of NDD within tree communities on species diversity. We show that stronger NDD leads to higher species diversity. Furthermore, lower range of strengths of NDD within a community increases species richness and decreases variance of species abundances. Our results show that, beyond the average strength of NDD, the variance of NDD is also crucially important to explain species diversity. This can explain the dissimilarity of biodiversity between tropical and temperate forest: highly diverse forests could have lower NDD variance. This report suggests that natural enemies and the variety of the magnitude of their effects can contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity.

Coexistence and relative abundance in plant communities are determined by feedbacks when the scale of feedback and dispersal is local

1. Negative plant-soil feedback occurs when the presence of an individual of a particular species at a particular site decreases the relative success of individuals of the same species compared to those other species at that site. This effect favors heterospecifics thereby facilitating coexistence and maintaining diversity. Empirical work has demonstrated that the average strengths of these feedbacks correlate with the relative abundance of species within a community, suggesting that feedbacks are an important driver of plant community composition. Understanding what factors contribute to the generation of this relationship is necessary for diagnosing the dynamic forces that maintain diversity in plant communities. 2. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based computer simulation to test the effects of dispersal distance, the size of feedback neighbourhoods, the strength of pairwise feedbacks and community wide variation of feedbacks, community richness, as well as life-history differences on the dependence of relative abundance on strength of feedback. 3. We found a positive dependence of relative abundance of a species on its average feedback for local scale dispersal and feedback. However, we found that the strength of this dependence decreased as either the spatial scale of dispersal and/or the spatial scale of feedback increased. We also found that for spatially local (i.e. relatively small) scale interaction and dispersal, as the mean strength of feedbacks in the community becomes less negative, the greater the increase in abundance produced by a comparable increase in species-specific average feedback. We found that life-history differences such as mortality rate did not generate a pattern with abundance, nor did they affect the relationship between abundance and average feedback. 4.Synthesis. Our results support the claim that empirical observations of a positive correlation between relative abundance and strength of average feedback serves as evidence that local scale negative feedbacks play a prominent role in structuring plant communities. We also identify that this relationship depends upon local scale plant dispersal and feedback which generates clumping and magnifies the negative feedbacks.

Elevational variation in density dependence in a subtropical forest

Density-dependent mortality has been recognized as an important mechanism that underpins tree species diversity, especially in tropical forests. However, few studies have attempted to explore how density dependence varies with spatial scale and even fewer have attempted to identify why there is scale-dependent differentiation. In this study, we explore the elevational variation in density dependence. Three 1-ha permanent plots were established at low and high elevations in the Heishiding subtropical forest, southern China. Using data from 1200 1 m² seedling quadrats, comprising of 200 1 m² quadrats located in each 1-ha plot, we examined the variation in density dependence between elevations using a generalized linear mixed model with crossed random effects. A greenhouse experiment also investigated the potential effects of the soil biota on density-dependent differentiation. Our results demonstrated that density-dependent seedling mortality can vary between elevations in subtropical forests. Species found at a lower elevation suffered stronger negative density dependence than those found at a higher elevation. The greenhouse experiment indicated that two species that commonly occur at both elevations suffered more from soilborne pathogens during seed germination and seedling growth when they grew at the lower elevation, which implied that soil pathogens may play a crucial role in density-dependent spatial variation.

Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28 years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Strong self-limitation promotes the persistence of rare species

Theory has recognized a combination of niche and neutral processes each contributing, with varying importance, to species coexistence. However, long-term persistence of rare species has been difficult to produce in trait-based models of coexistence that incorporate stochastic dynamics, raising questions about how rare species persist despite such variability. Following recent evidence that rare species may experience significantly different population dynamics than dominant species, we use a plant community model to simulate the effect of disproportionately strong negative frequency dependence on the long-term persistence of the rare species in a simulated community. This strong self-limitation produces long persistence times for the rare competitors, which otherwise succumb quickly to stochastic extinction. The results suggest that the mechanism causing species to be rare in this case is the same mechanism allowing those species to persist.

Conspecific negative density dependence and forest diversity

Conspecific negative density-dependent establishment, in which local abundance negatively affects establishment of conspecific seedlings through host-specific enemies, can influence species diversity of plant communities, but the generality of this process is not well understood. We tested the strength of density dependence using the United States Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis database containing 151 species from more than 200,000 forest plots spanning 4,000,000 square kilometers. We found that most species experienced conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD), but there was little effect of heterospecific density. Additionally, abundant species exhibited weaker CNDD than rarer species, and species-rich regions exhibited stronger CNDD than species-poor regions. Collectively, our results provide evidence that CNDD is a pervasive mechanism driving diversity across a gradient from boreal to subtropical forests.