Projecting the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease Using Patient-Level Microsimulation Modelling: Rationale and Methods of Inside CKD

Long-term health consequences and costs of changes in alcohol consumption in England during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019, a trend continuing through 2021 and 2022. This study aimed to quantify future health, healthcare, and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups.

RESULTS

In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England.

The Clinical and Economic Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in Poland: Inside Patient-Level Microsimulation Modelling of CKD

Background/Objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased annual costs, with the highest costs attributable to renal replacement therapy (RRT). These costs will rise as prevalence increases. Therefore, forecasting the future prevalence and economic burden of CKD, particularly in underdiagnosed populations, may provide valuable insights to policymakers looking at strategies to implement interventions to delay CKD progression. Methods: As part of the Inside CKD study, this work used epidemiological data to generate a virtual population representative of Poland that progressed through a microsimulation in 1-year increments between 2022 and 2027. This microsimulation was used to assess the clinical and economic burdens of CKD in Poland. Results: Between 2022 and 2027, the percentage of individuals with CKD is projected to increase from 10.7% to 11.3%. Only 30.1% of individuals with CKD will be diagnosed in 2027. During this time, the total healthcare cost of individuals with diagnosed CKD pre-RRT is predicted to decrease slightly from $73 million to $62 million. However, the total healthcare cost of individuals with diagnosed CKD is projected to increase by 23.1% when including RRT. Conclusions: This study shows that the clinical and economic burdens of individuals with CKD will worsen in the upcoming years. The implementation of policies to enhance the early detection of CKD and the initiation of treatments to slow disease progression should be implemented to reduce the number of individuals requiring RRT.

Development and validation of a chronic kidney disease progression model using patient-level simulations

Chronic disease progression models are available for several highly prevalent conditions. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), the scope of existing progression models is limited to the risk of kidney failure and major cardiovascular (CV) events. The aim of this project was to develop a comprehensive CKD progression model (CKD-PM) that simulates the risk of CKD progression and a broad range of complications in patients with CKD. A series of literature reviews informed the selection of risk factors and identified existing risk equations/algorithms for kidney replacement therapy (KRT), CV events, other CKD-related complications, and mortality. Risk equations and transition probabilities were primarily sourced from publications produced by large US and international CKD registries. A patient-level, state-transition model was developed with health states defined by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes categories. Model validation was performed by comparing predicted outcomes with observed outcomes in the source cohorts used in model development (internal validation) and other cohorts (external validation). The CKD-PM demonstrated satisfactory modeling properties. Accurate prediction of all-cause and CV mortality was achieved without calibration, while prediction of CV events through CKD-specific equations required implementation of a calibration factor to balance time-dependent versus baseline risk. Predicted annual changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio were acceptable in comparison to external values. A flexible eGFR threshold for KRT equations enabled accurate prediction of these events. This CKD-PM demonstrated reliable modeling properties. Both internal and external validation revealed robust outcomes.

Projecting the Population Level Burden of CKD Progression According to Urine Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio Categories

Introduction

Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) is an independent predictor of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. However there is limited evidence on the burden of CKD according to uACR categories at the population level. This study estimates future clinical and financial burden of CKD according to uACR categories using the Inside CKD microsimulation.

Methods

The Inside CKD model is an individual patient level microsimulation that emulates national populations based on demographic, epidemiological, and economic data. The analysis estimates clinical and economic outcomes over time according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) uACR categories (A1-A3) at a population level for 31 countries and regions.

Results

CKD populations (diagnosed and undiagnosed individuals, stages G3-G5) were projected to be predominantly within uACR categories A1 and A2 in 2022. Projected cumulative incidence of CKD stage transitions (disease progression) and cardio-renal complications (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality) occurred mostly in uACR categories A1 and A2 between 2022 and 2027. Patients in uACR categories A1 and A2, who represent the largest proportion of patients with CKD, were projected to incur most of the health care costs associated with CKD management and cardio-renal complications for the diagnosed population (prevalence 2027).

Conclusion

This study highlights the disproportionate population-level clinical and economic burden associated with individuals within KDIGO uACR categories A1 and A2, who represent most of the CKD population. This awareness will help health care decision makers to appropriately allocate resources and interventions to the CKD population, including those with mild to moderately increased albuminuria, to reduce clinical and economic burden associated with CKD.

Evaluation of clinical events and costs associated with the addition of dapagliflozin to chronic kidney disease treatment: Cost offset analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a serious health problem with an increasing clinical, social and economic impact in advanced stages. Dapagliflozin is a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor that reduces the risk of CKD progression, in addition to provide cardiovascular benefits and reduce all-cause mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the short-term clinical and economic impact of dapagliflozin as an add-on to renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) standard therapy for CKD in Spain.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cost-offset model was used to compare the costs of clinical events and pharmacological per 100,000 CKD patients in a virtual cohort treated with dapagliflozin added to RAASi standard therapy versus RAASi standard therapy alone. Renal (progression to renal failure and acute kidney injury), cardiovascular (hospitalisation for heart failure [HF]), and all-cause mortality events were assessed. The incidence of clinical events by treatment arm was obtained from the DAPA-CKD study, and costs were obtained from national databases and the literature.

RESULTS

Over 3 years, treatment with dapagliflozin would reduce progression to renal failure (-33%; 7221 vs. 10,767), hospitalisation for HF (-49%; 2370 vs. 4683) and acute kidney injury (-29%; 4110 vs. 5819). The savings associated with this reduction in events was ;258 million per 100,000 patients, of which 63.4% is due to the avoidance of dialysis for renal failure. Considering the event and pharmacological treatment costs, the total net savings were estimated at ;158 million per 100,000 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Delaying progression of CKD and reducing the incidence of clinical events thanks to the treatment with dapagliflozin could generate savings for the Spanish National Health System, even when pharmacological costs are taken into account.

IMPACT CKD: Holistic Disease Model Projecting 10-Year Population Burdens

Introduction

The significant burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not recognized as a global public health priority, although policies aimed at delaying progression to later stages are required. Therefore, there is need for a holistic disease model to inform decision making that accounts for the multidimensional impact of CKD, and the interrelated factors that modulate progression.

Methods

IMPACT CKD is a microsimulation model that simulates CKD progression and incorporates the effect of clinical events and comorbidities. CKD status is assigned using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria levels, and CKD progression is predicted by an annual eGFR decline rate. The model projects clinical, health care resource use, economic, patient, societal, and environmental burdens from 2022 to 2032. During development, face, technical, and external validity were evaluated, with calibration conducted to population data. Further, cross-validation was conducted against 2 published models. The United Kingdom (UK) was selected as the case study for validation.

Results

A 7.7% increase in the CKD population by 2032 was predicted, with increasing numbers of patients with CKD stage 3 to 5 (21.7%), dialysis (75.3%), and transplantation (58.7%). The increase of patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT) results in an increase of 75% across freshwater use, fossil fuel depletion, and CO2 emissions over the next decade, and an estimated cost of £1.95 billion in 2032. Projections reflect validated findings from other models.

Conclusion

The IMPACT CKD model is a robust simulation that delivers validated forecasts of the holistic CKD burden, which can support evaluation of diverse health policies and treatment strategies.

Projection of the clinical and economic burden of chronic kidney disease between 2022 and 2027 in Spain: Results of the Inside CKD project

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing health problem affecting between 10% and 15% of the Spanish population. The lack of updated projections of the evolution of the disease burden hinders the development of evidence-based health policies and interventions to optimise the management of the disease and prevent its progression. The aim of this study is to project the evolution of the clinical and economic burden of CKD in Spain between 2022 and 2027.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Inside CKD uses a validated microsimulation approach to project the burden of CKD. The projection is based on a virtual population according to Spanish demographics, literature, national data registries and clinical expert opinion. Costs associated with CKD management, renal replacement therapy (RRT), cardiovascular complications and arterial comorbidities were included.

RESULTS

In Spain, an absolute increase in the prevalence of CKD of 1% (from 10.7% to 11.7%) is expected between 2022 and 2027, corresponding to an increase from 5.14 million to 5.68 million patients in 2027. However, only one third of CKD patients would be diagnosed. Of these diagnosed patients, 3.9% will require RRT in 2027, an increase of 14.7% from 2022. A total of 654,281 accumulated deaths are expected in patients with CKD diagnosed between 2022 and 2027. The economic burden of diagnosed CKD is expected to increase by 13.8% to 4.89 billion euros in 2027, representing 5.56% of total Spanish public health expenditure in 2027 (compared to 4.88% in 2022), of which 42.5% will be allocated to RRT (2.4% of public health expenditure).

CONCLUSIONS

The Inside CKD project highlights the growing clinical, economic and social burden of CKD in Spain expected by 2027. Progression to more advanced stages with the need for RRT and associated complications represent a small proportion of the total CKD population, but contribute significantly to overall costs.

Inside CKD: a microsimulation modelling study projects the clinical and economic burden of chronic kidney disease in Hungary

Objectives

The Inside CKD programme implemented a microsimulation modelling approach to project the clinical and economic burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) between 2024 and 2027 in Hungary.

Methods

Using the peer-reviewed Inside CKD microsimulation, a virtual Hungarian population was generated that was derived from national records, local demographic data and published epidemiological data. These inputs defined the likelihood of a change in health state for each individual as they progressed through the model in annual increments. Individual CKD status, including disease progression, cardiorenal complications and associated costs, was tracked annually to generate the population-level projections of the clinical and economic burden of CKD.

Results

By 2027, people with CKD were projected to constitute 13.3% of the Hungarian national population. The prevalence of heart failure, myocardial infarction and stroke in people with CKD were projected to remain consistently high, reaching 323 447, 69 188 and 120 118 by 2027, respectively. Kidney replacement therapy cases were predicted to remain high at 20 515 in 2024 and 22 325 in 2027, with associated costs increasing from 71.4 billion HUF in 2024 to 79.6 billion HUF in 2027. Total annual healthcare costs associated with treating CKD were projected to constitute 5.4% of the overall national healthcare budget in 2027.

Conclusions

Inside CKD demonstrates that the future burden of CKD in Hungary will be substantial unless current management strategies change. The high prevalence of undiagnosed CKD and associated cardiorenal complications highlight the urgent need for policy interventions focused on early diagnosis and timely intervention to mitigate the future burden of CKD.

Inside ANEMIA of CKD: Projecting the Future Burden of Anemia of Chronic Kidney Disease and Benefits of Proactive Management: A Microsimulation Model of the Chinese Population

INTRODUCTION

Anemia is a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that has been associated with increased risk of complications, healthcare expenditure, and reduced quality of life. In China, the treatment of anemia of CKD has been reported to be suboptimal in part because of a lack of awareness of the condition and its management. It is therefore important to raise awareness of the condition by estimating the future health and economic burden of anemia of CKD and also to understand how it may be addressed through proactive policies. This study aims to project the health and economic burden of anemia of CKD, in China, from 2023 to 2027 and to estimate the impact of a hypothetical intervention on related clinical and cost outcomes.

METHODS

A virtual Chinese population was simulated using demographic, clinical, and economic statistics within a validated CKD microsimulation model. Each individual was assigned a CKD stage, anemia stage, comorbidity status (type 2 diabetes, hypertension), complication status (stroke, heart failure, and/or myocardial infarction), and a probability of receiving treatments and therapies. Annual direct healthcare costs were assigned and based on these factors. The hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia by 5% annually. This hypothetical scenario was chosen to highlight the impact of implementing policies that could reduce anemia of CKD, and is aligned with the Healthy China 2030 policy, which aims to reduce mortality from noncommunicable diseases by 30%. Interventions could consist of early screening and intervention to reduce the escalation of anemia from mild to moderate or severe. Results were compared with a baseline "no change" scenario which reflects current trends.

RESULTS

The number of patients with moderate/severe anemia of CKD was projected to increase from 3.0 to 3.2 million patients, with associated costs increasing from ¥22.0 billion (B) to ¥24.4B between 2023 and 2027, respectively. Compared with the no change scenario, the hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia of CKD, saving ¥3.9B in healthcare costs in 2027 (¥24.4B vs ¥20.6B, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with trends in CKD burden in China, the prevalence of anemia of CKD is projected to increase, leading to greater related healthcare costs. The introduction of healthcare interventions designed to screen for and treat anemia more effectively could therefore reduce its future burden and related costs.

Benefits of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease for US commercial payers: A cost-offset analysis

BACKGROUND

One in 7 adults have chronic kidney disease (CKD), which is associated with high morbidity and mortality and substantial health care costs, especially in more advanced disease. Our data from a US commercial payer show rising per-member-per-year costs for renal and cardiac complications associated with CKD.

OBJECTIVE

To predict the clinical and economic impact of treatment with or without dapagliflozin from the perspective of a US commercial payer using a cost-offset model (COM).

METHODS

The COM used real-world cost and member count data from a US employer-sponsored commercial payer and results of the double-blind, randomized, phase 3 Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD clinical trial (NCT03036150) to predict the incidence of clinical events, including a greater than or equal to 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), end-stage kidney disease, and hospitalization for heart failure, and their associated costs over a 3-year period. The COM compared a hypothetical scenario of the experience with or without dapagliflozin in members with CKD stages 2-4, aged younger than 65 years.

RESULTS

In the simulated populations of 130 members, the COM projected 9 events of a greater than or equal to 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate for the experience with dapagliflozin vs 15 events for the experience without dapagliflozin (6 fewer events; number needed to treat [NNT] = 20, amounting to estimated cumulative cost offsets of $0.57 million [M] over a 3-year period). The COM projected similar results for end-stage kidney disease (8 events with dapagliflozin vs 14 events without dapagliflozin; NNT = 24, amounting to $1.92 M in cumulative cost offsets) and for hospitalization for heart failure (13 events with dapagliflozin vs 33 events without dapagliflozin; NNT = 7, amounting to $0.79 M in cumulative cost offsets). These projections translated to total mean, cumulative cost offsets of $3.89 M for all clinical events evaluated over the 3-year period (36.6% reduction with dapagliflozin vs without dapagliflozin), and net mean, cumulative cost offsets of $2.58 M over the 3-year period (24.2% reduction with dapagliflozin vs without dapagliflozin) after factoring in a discounted wholesale acquisition cost for dapagliflozin expenditure ($1.31 M over 3 years). Thus, the net mean, cumulative cost offsets were $19,843 per member over 3 years, representing a 197% return on investment for dapagliflozin expenditure.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of our COM suggest that dapagliflozin can reduce clinical events and their associated costs over a 3-year period when compared with a scenario without dapagliflozin. Cost offsets increased with each year, indicating that US commercial payers can substantially reduce costs associated with CKD morbidity and mortality.

Effect of exercise-based rehabilitation on functional capacity and renal function in type 2 diabetes mellitus with nephropathy: a randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Diabetic nephropathy is a growing public health challenge with implications on health. Renal function decline impacts the functional ability and overall health and well-being of individuals with diabetic nephropathy due to development of several renal manifestations. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of an exercise-based rehabilitation program on functional capacity and renal function among individuals with type 2 diabetic nephropathy.

METHODS

A total of 283 individuals were screened and 60 eligible participants aged 45-70 years with diabetic nephropathy were randomly allocated (n = 30 each) to the intervention group (IG) and control group (CG), respectively. The study outcome measures comprised of functional capacity (6-min walk test) and renal function assessed at baseline, 12th week and 24th week. Participants allocated to IG received 12 weeks of exercise based rehabilitation (comprising of supervised + home-based exercises) along with standard care and followed-up till 24th week.

RESULTS

The repeated measures ANOVA with Greenhouse-Geisser correction indicated significant timepoint*group interaction effect for 6-min walk distance F (1.71, 90.59) = 619, p < 0.001, serum creatinine F (1.23, 65.14) = 174.8, p < 0.001, estimated glomerular filtration rate F (1.15, 60.88) = 105.2, p < 0.001, serum urea F (1.48, 78.45) = 261.4, p < 0.001 and urine protein F (1.13, 59.82) = 4.58, p < 0.328.

CONCLUSION

The study found that exercise based rehabilitation improved both functional capacity and renal function among individuals with type 2 diabetic nephropathy.

Projected Health and Economic Burden of Comorbid Gout and Chronic Kidney Disease in a Virtual US Population: A Microsimulation Study

INTRODUCTION

Gout, a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is associated with high morbidity and healthcare utilization. However, a large proportion of gout remains undermanaged or untreated which may lead to worse patient outcomes and greater healthcare costs. This study estimates the present and future health and economic burden of controlled and uncontrolled gout in a virtual United States (US) CKD population.

METHODS

A validated microsimulation model was used to project the burden of gout in patients with CKD in the USA through 2035. Databases were utilized to build a virtual CKD population of "individuals" with controlled or uncontrolled gout. Modelling assumptions were made on the basis of the literature, which was sparse in some cases. Health and economic outcomes with the current care (baseline) scenario were evaluated, along with potential benefits of urate-lowering intervention scenarios.

RESULTS

The prevalence of comorbid gout and CKD in the USA was projected to increase by 29%, from 7.9 million in 2023 to 9.6 million in 2035 in the baseline scenario. Gout flares, tophi, and comorbidity development were also projected to increase markedly through 2035, with the economic burden of gout in the CKD population subsequently increasing from $38.9 billion in 2023 to $47.3 billion in 2035. An increased use of oral urate-lowering therapies in undermanaged patients, and pegloticase use in patients refractory to oral urate-lowering therapies were also project to result in 744,000 and 353,000 fewer uncontrolled gout cases, respectively, by 2035. Marked reductions in complications and costs ensued.

CONCLUSIONS

This study projected a substantial increase in comorbid gout and CKD. However, improved use of urate-lowering interventions could mitigate this growth and reduce the health and economic burdens of gout.

Projecting the economic burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation modelling study

Background

The growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) places substantial financial pressures on patients, healthcare systems, and society. An understanding of the costs attributed to CKD and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is essential for evidence-based policy making. Inside CKD maps and projects the economic burden of CKD across 31 countries/regions from 2022 to 2027.

Methods

A microsimulation model was developed that generated virtual populations using national demographics, relevant literature, and renal registries for the 31 countries/regions included. Patient-level country/region-specific cost data were extracted via a pragmatic local literature review and under advisement from local experts. Direct cost projections were generated for diagnosed CKD (by age, stage 3a-5), KRT (by modality), cardiovascular complications (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke), and comorbidities (hypertension, type 2 diabetes).

Findings

For the 31 countries/regions, Inside CKD projected that annual direct costs (US$) of diagnosed CKD and KRT would increase by 9.3% between 2022 and 2027, from $372.0 billion to $406.7 billion. Annual KRT-associated costs were projected to increase by 10.0% from $169.6 billion to $186.6 billion between 2022 and 2027. By 2027, patients receiving KRT are projected to constitute 5.3% of the diagnosed CKD population but contribute 45.9% of the total costs.

Interpretation

The economic burden of CKD is projected to increase from 2022 to 2027. KRT contributes disproportionately to this burden. Earlier diagnosis and proactive management could slow disease progression, potentially alleviating the substantial costs associated with later CKD stages. Data presented here can be used to inform healthcare resource allocation and shape future policy.

Funding

AstraZeneca.

Projecting the clinical burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation modelling study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global concern that presents significant challenges for disease management. Several factors drive CKD prevalence, including primary risk factors, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension, and an ageing population. Inside CKD is an international initiative that aims to raise awareness of the substantial burden incurred by CKD.

Methods

Using a peer-reviewed microsimulation method, the clinical burden of CKD was estimated from 2022 to 2027. Demographic data from the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific/Middle East were used to generate virtual populations and to project the prevalence of CKD, kidney replacement therapy, associated cardiovascular complications, comorbid conditions, and all-cause mortality in the CKD population over the modelled time frame.

Findings

Across the 31 participating countries/regions, the total prevalence of CKD was projected to rise to 436.6 million cases by 2027 (an increase of 5.8% from 2022), with most cases (∼80%) undiagnosed. Inside CKD projected a mean of 8859 cases of heart failure, 10,244 of myocardial infarction, and 7797 of stroke per 100,000 patients with CKD by 2027.

Interpretation

The clinical impact of CKD is substantial and likely to increase; the high prevalence of undiagnosed cases and associated complications may benefit from the implementation of health policy interventions that promote screening, earlier diagnosis, and interventions to improve outcomes.

Funding

AstraZeneca.

A Systematic Literature Review on the Use of Dried Biofluid Microsampling in Patients With Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

Kidney disease is fairly unique due to the lack of symptoms associated with disease activity, and it is therefore dependent on biological monitoring. Dried biofluids, particularly dried capillary blood spots, are an accessible, easy-to-use technology that have seen increased utility in basic science research over the past decade. However, their use is yet to reach the kidney patient population clinically or in large-scale discovery science initiatives. The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate the existing literature surrounding the use of dried biofluids in kidney research.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted using three search engines and a predefined search term strategy. Results were summarised according to the collection method, type of biofluid, application to kidney disease, cost, sample stability and patient acceptability.

RESULTS

In total, 404 studies were identified and 67 were eligible. In total, 34,739 patients were recruited to these studies with a skew towards male participants (> 73%). The majority of samples were blood, which was used either for monitoring anti-rejection immunosuppressive drug concentrations or for kidney function. Dried biofluids offered significant cost savings to the patient and healthcare service. The majority of patients preferred home microsampling when compared to conventional monitoring.

CONCLUSION

There is an unmet need in bringing dried microsampling technology to advance kidney disease despite its advantages. This technology provides an opportunity to upscale patient recruitment and longitudinal sampling, enhance vein preservation and overcome participation bias in research.

Impatto economico di dapagliflozin nella gestione della malattia renale cronica in Italia: risultati di un modello di micro-simulazione

Background:

Dapagliflozin, approved in the treatment of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), has demonstrated attenuation of CKD progression and a reduced risk of cardio-renal outcomes and all-cause mortality (ACM) versus placebo, in addition to standard of care (SoC). The aim of this economic evaluation was to assess the potential medical care cost offsets associated with reduced rates of cardio-renal outcomes in Italy.

Methods:

A comparative micro-simulation model estimated the outcome-related costs of dapagliflozin plus SoC versus SoC alone over a 3-year horizon based on the DAPA-CKD trial. Incidence rates of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), hospitalizations for heart failure (hHF), acute kidney injury (AKI) and ACM were estimated for a treated population of 90,564 patients. Associated direct medical costs for non-fatal events (ESKD, hHF and AKI) were calculated using available literature and national tariffs. The analysis was restricted to outcome-associated costs and did not consider the cost of drug treatments and disease management.

Results:

Patients treated with dapagliflozin plus SoC experienced fewer incident events of ESKD (6,540 vs 9,751), hHF (2,146 vs 4,242), AKI (3,772 vs. 5,271) and ACM (5,780 vs 8,037) per 90,564 treated patients versus those treated with SoC alone. Reductions (–35,6%) in clinical events (ESKD, hHF and AKI) were associated with a 34.4% reduction in total costs (€ 170 million) over 3 years. The clinical effect of dapagliflozin on ESKD management accounted for a € 134.5 million reduction in total costs.

Conclusion:

Based on the DAPA-CKD trial, dapagliflozin may prevent cardio-renal event incidence with a positive effect upon the Italian National Healthcare Service (NHS). Over three years, we estimated that dapagliflozin can reduce the Italian NHS expenditure associated with the management of ESKD, hHF and AKI events by 34.4% (€ 170 million).

Global Economic Burden Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Pragmatic Review of Medical Costs for the Inside CKD Research Programme

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive disease of growing prevalence, posing serious concerns for global public health. While the economic burden of CKD is substantial, data on the cost of CKD is limited, despite growing pressures on healthcare systems. In this review, we summarise the available evidence in 31 countries and regions and compile a library of costing methodology and estimates of CKD management and disease-associated complications across 31 countries/regions within the Inside CKD programme.

METHODS

We collected country/region-specific CKD costs via a pragmatic rapid literature review of local literature and engagement with local experts. We extracted cost data and definitions from identified sources for CKD stages G3a-5, kidney failure with replacement therapy by modality, covering haemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, and kidney transplants, and disease-associated complications in local currency, converted to United States dollars (USD) and inflated to 2022.

RESULTS

Annual direct costs associated with CKD management rose by an average factor of 4 in each country/region upon progression from stage G3a to G5. Mean annual costs per patient increased considerably more from early stages versus dialysis (stage G3a, mean: $3060 versus haemodialysis, mean: $57,334; peritoneal dialysis, mean: $49,490); with estimates for annual costs of transplant also substantially higher (incident: $75,326; subsequent: $16,672). The mean annual per patient costs of complications were $18,294 for myocardial infarction, $8463 for heart failure, $10,168 for stroke and $5975 for acute kidney injury. Costing definitions varied widely in granularity and/or definition across all countries/regions.

CONCLUSION

Globally, CKD carries a significant economic burden, which increases substantially with increasing disease severity. We identified significant gaps in published costs and inconsistent costing definitions. Cost-effective interventions that target primary prevention and disease progression are essential to reduce CKD burden. Our results can be used to guide cost collection and facilitate better comparisons across countries/regions to inform healthcare policy.

Translating the efficacy of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease to lower healthcare resource utilization and costs: a medical care cost offset analysis

AIMS

Dapagliflozin was approved for use in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on results of the DAPA-CKD trial, demonstrating attenuation of CKD progression and reduced risk of cardio-renal outcomes and all-cause mortality (ACM) versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy. The study objective was to assess the potential medical care cost offsets associated with reduced rates of cardio-renal outcomes across 31 countries and regions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A comparative cost-determination framework estimated outcome-related costs of dapagliflozin plus standard therapy versus standard therapy alone over a 3-year horizon based on the DAPA-CKD trial. Incidence rates of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF), acute kidney injury (AKI), and ACM were estimated for a treated population of 100,000 patients. Associated medical care costs for non-fatal events were calculated using sources from a review of publicly available data specific to each considered setting.

RESULTS

Patients treated with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy experienced fewer incidents of ESKD (7,221 vs 10,767; number needed to treat, NNT: 28), HHF (2,370 vs 4,684; NNT: 43), AKI (4,110 vs. 5,819; NNT: 58), and ACM (6,383 vs 8,874; NNT: 40) per 100,000 treated patients versus those treated with standard therapy alone. Across 31 countries/regions, reductions in clinical events were associated with a 33% reduction in total costs, or a cumulative mean medical care cost offset of $264 million per 100,000 patients over 3 years.

LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

This analysis is limited by the quality of country/region-specific data available for medical care event costs. Based on the DAPA-CKD trial, we show that treatment with dapagliflozin may prevent cardio-renal event incidence at the population level, which could have positive effects upon healthcare service delivery worldwide. The analysis was restricted to outcome-associated costs and did not consider the cost of drug treatments and disease management.