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Carneiro Barreto MS, Wani RP, Goranov AI, Sowers TD, Fischel M, Douglas TA, Hatcher PG, Sparks DL. Carbon Fate, Iron Dissolution, and Molecular Characterization of Dissolved Organic Matter in Thawed Yedoma Permafrost under Varying Redox Conditions. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 58:4155-4166. [PMID: 38385246 PMCID: PMC11152146 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c08219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
Permafrost soils store ∼50% of terrestrial C, with Yedoma permafrost containing ∼25% of the total C. Permafrost is undergoing degradation due to thawing, with potentially hazardous effects on landscape stability and water resources. Complicating ongoing efforts to project the ultimate fate of deep permafrost C is the poorly constrained role of the redox environment, Fe-minerals, and its redox-active phases, which may modulate organic C-abundance, composition, and reactivity through complexation and catalytic processes. We characterized C fate, Fe fractions, and dissolved organic matter (DOM) isolates from permafrost-thaw under varying redox conditions. Under anoxic incubation conditions, 33% of the initial C was lost as gaseous species within 21 days, while under oxic conditions, 58% of C was lost. Under anoxic incubation, 42% of the total initial C was preserved in a dissolved fraction. Lignin-like compounds dominated permafrost-thaw, followed by lipid- and protein-like compounds. However, under anoxic incubation conditions, there was accumulation of lipid-like compounds and reduction in the nominal oxidation state of C over time, regardless of the compound classes. DOM dynamics may be affected by microbial activity and abiotic processes mediated by Fe-minerals related to selective DOM fractionation and/or its oxidation. Chemodiversity DOM signatures could serve as valuable proxies to track redox conditions with permafrost-thaw.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Rucha P Wani
- Department of Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, United States
- Department of Earth Sciences, Spatial Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089, United States
| | - Aleksandar I Goranov
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Old Dominion University, 4501 Elkhorn Avenue, Norfolk, Virginia 23529, United States
| | - Tyler D Sowers
- Department of Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, United States
- Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Durham, North Carolina 27711, United States
| | - Matthew Fischel
- Department of Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, United States
- USDA-ARS: Sustainable Agriculture Systems Lab, Beltsville, Maryland 20705, United States
| | - Thomas Alexander Douglas
- U.S. Army Cold Regions Research & Engineering Laboratory, Fort Wainwright, Fairbanks, Alaska 99703, United States
| | - Patrick G Hatcher
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Old Dominion University, 4501 Elkhorn Avenue, Norfolk, Virginia 23529, United States
| | - Donald L Sparks
- Department of Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, United States
- Hagler Institute Fellow, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77840, United States
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2
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Glückler R, Gloy J, Dietze E, Herzschuh U, Kruse S. Simulating long-term wildfire impacts on boreal forest structure in Central Yakutia, Siberia, since the Last Glacial Maximum. FIRE ECOLOGY 2024; 20:1. [PMID: 38186675 PMCID: PMC10766680 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00238-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/09/2024]
Abstract
Background Wildfires are recognized as an important ecological component of larch-dominated boreal forests in eastern Siberia. However, long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in this unique environment are poorly understood. Recent paleoecological research suggests that intensifying fire regimes may induce millennial-scale shifts in forest structure and composition. This may, in turn, result in positive feedback on intensifying wildfires and permafrost degradation, apart from threatening human livelihoods. Most common fire-vegetation models do not explicitly include detailed individual-based tree population dynamics, but a focus on patterns of forest structure emerging from interactions among individual trees may provide a beneficial perspective on the impacts of changing fire regimes in eastern Siberia. To simulate these impacts on forest structure at millennial timescales, we apply the individual-based, spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI-FIRE, expanded with a new fire module. Satellite-based fire observations along with fieldwork data were used to inform the implementation of wildfire occurrence and adjust model parameters. Results Simulations of annual forest development and wildfire activity at a study site in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) since the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 20,000 years BP) highlight the variable impacts of fire regimes on forest structure throughout time. Modeled annual fire probability and subsequent burned area in the Holocene compare well with a local reconstruction of charcoal influx in lake sediments. Wildfires can be followed by different forest regeneration pathways, depending on fire frequency and intensity and the pre-fire forest conditions. We find that medium-intensity wildfires at fire return intervals of 50 years or more benefit the dominance of fire-resisting Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.), while stand-replacing fires tend to enable the establishment of evergreen conifers. Apart from post-fire mortality, wildfires modulate forest development mainly through competition effects and a reduction of the model's litter layer. Conclusion With its fine-scale population dynamics, LAVESI-FIRE can serve as a highly localized, spatially explicit tool to understand the long-term impacts of boreal wildfires on forest structure and to better constrain interpretations of paleoecological reconstructions of fire activity. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42408-023-00238-8.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ramesh Glückler
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, Potsdam, 14476 Germany
- Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Sapporo, 060-0810 Japan
| | - Josias Gloy
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
| | - Elisabeth Dietze
- Institute of Geography, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Goldschmidtstrasse 5, Göttingen, 37077 Germany
| | - Ulrike Herzschuh
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, Potsdam, 14476 Germany
- Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, Potsdam, 14476 Germany
| | - Stefan Kruse
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
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3
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Heßler M, Kamps O. Quantifying resilience and the risk of regime shifts under strong correlated noise. PNAS NEXUS 2022; 2:pgac296. [PMID: 36743473 PMCID: PMC9896148 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures. Even under favourable simulation conditions the measures are of limited capacity due to their qualitative nature and sometimes ambiguous trend-to-noise ratio. In order to solve these shortcomings, we analyze the stability of the system via the slope of the deterministic term of a Langevin equation, which is hypothesized to underlie the system dynamics close to the fixed point. The open-source available method is applied to a previously studied seasonal ecological model under noise levels and correlation scenarios commonly observed in real world data. We compare the results to autocorrelation, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis as leading indicator candidates by a Bayesian model comparison with a linear and a constant model. We show that the slope of the deterministic term is a promising alternative due to its quantitative nature and high robustness against noise levels and types. The commonly computed indicators apart from the autocorrelation with deseasonalization fail to provide reliable insights into the stability of the system in contrast to a previously performed study in which the standard deviation was found to perform best. In addition, we discuss the significant influence of the seasonal nature of the data to the robust computation of the various indicators, before we determine approximately the minimal amount of data per time window that leads to significant trends for the drift slope estimations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Oliver Kamps
- Center for Nonlinear Science, Westphalian Wilhelms-University Münster, Corrensstraße 2 48149, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
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4
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Armstrong McKay DI, Staal A, Abrams JF, Winkelmann R, Sakschewski B, Loriani S, Fetzer I, Cornell SE, Rockström J, Lenton TM. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 2022; 377:eabn7950. [PMID: 36074831 DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 270] [Impact Index Per Article: 135.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- David I Armstrong McKay
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.,Georesilience Analytics, Leatherhead, UK
| | - Arie Staal
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | | | - Sina Loriani
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ingo Fetzer
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sarah E Cornell
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Johan Rockström
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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5
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Glückler R, Geng R, Grimm L, Baisheva I, Herzschuh U, Stoof-Leichsenring KR, Kruse S, Andreev A, Pestryakova L, Dietze E. Holocene wildfire and vegetation dynamics in Central Yakutia, Siberia, reconstructed from lake-sediment proxies. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.962906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Wildfires play an essential role in the ecology of boreal forests. In eastern Siberia, fire activity has been increasing in recent years, challenging the livelihoods of local communities. Intensifying fire regimes also increase disturbance pressure on the boreal forests, which currently protect the permafrost beneath from accelerated degradation. However, long-term relationships between changes in fire regime and forest structure remain largely unknown. We assess past fire-vegetation feedbacks using sedimentary proxy records from Lake Satagay, Central Yakutia, Siberia, covering the past c. 10,800 years. Results from macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analyses indicate high amounts of burnt biomass during the Early Holocene, and that the present-day, low-severity surface fire regime has been in place since c. 4,500 years before present. A pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of vegetation cover and a terrestrial plant record based on sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding suggest a pronounced shift in forest structure toward the Late Holocene. Whereas the Early Holocene was characterized by postglacial open larch-birch woodlands, forest structure changed toward the modern, mixed larch-dominated closed-canopy forest during the Mid-Holocene. We propose a potential relationship between open woodlands and high amounts of burnt biomass, as well as a mediating effect of dense larch forest on the climate-driven intensification of fire regimes. Considering the anticipated increase in forest disturbances (droughts, insect invasions, and wildfires), higher tree mortality may force the modern state of the forest to shift toward an open woodland state comparable to the Early Holocene. Such a shift in forest structure may result in a positive feedback on currently intensifying wildfires. These new long-term data improve our understanding of millennial-scale fire regime changes and their relationships to changes of vegetation in Central Yakutia, where the local population is already being confronted with intensifying wildfire seasons.
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6
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Lam SS, Foong SY, Lee BHK, Low F, Alstrup AKO, Ok YS, Peng W, Sonne C. Set sustainable goals for the Arctic gateway coordinated international governance is required to resist yet another tipping point. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 776:146003. [PMID: 33647650 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2020] [Revised: 02/15/2021] [Accepted: 02/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Global warming is reducing the Arctic sea-ice and causing energetic stress to marine key predatory species such as polar bears and narwhals contributing to the ongoing pollution already threatening the biodiversity and indigenous people of the vulnerable region. Now, the opening of the Arctic gateway and in particular the increase in shipping activities causes further stress to marine mammals in the region. These shipping activities are foreseen to happen in the Northwest and Northeast Passage, Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route in the Arctic Ocean, which could be yet another step towards a crucial tipping point destabilizing global climate, including weathering systems and sea-level rise. This calls for international governance through the establishment of Arctic International National Parks and more Marine Protected Areas through the Arctic Council and UN's Law of the Sea to ensure sustainable use of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent waters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Su Shiung Lam
- Henan Province International Collaboration Lab of Forest Resources Utilization, School of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries (AKUATROP), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Shin Ying Foong
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries (AKUATROP), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Bernard H K Lee
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries (AKUATROP), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Felicia Low
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries (AKUATROP), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Aage K O Alstrup
- Aarhus University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine and PET, Palle Juul-Jensens Boulevard 99, DK-8200 Aarhus N, Denmark
| | - Yong Sik Ok
- Korea Biochar Research Center, APRU Sustainable Waste Management & Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Wanxi Peng
- Henan Province International Collaboration Lab of Forest Resources Utilization, School of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
| | - Christian Sonne
- Aarhus University, Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Frederiksborgvej 399, PO Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark; Henan Province International Collaboration Lab of Forest Resources Utilization, School of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China.
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7
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Eicken H, Danielsen F, Sam JM, Fidel M, Johnson N, Poulsen MK, Lee OA, Spellman KV, Iversen L, Pulsifer P, Enghoff M. Connecting Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches in Environmental Observing. Bioscience 2021; 71:467-483. [PMID: 33986631 PMCID: PMC8106998 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Effective responses to rapid environmental change rely on observations to inform planning and decision-making. Reviewing literature from 124 programs across the globe and analyzing survey data for 30 Arctic community-based monitoring programs, we compare top-down, large-scale program driven approaches with bottom-up approaches initiated and steered at the community level. Connecting these two approaches and linking to Indigenous and local knowledge yields benefits including improved information products and enhanced observing program efficiency and sustainability. We identify core principles central to such improved links: matching observing program aims, scales, and ability to act on information; matching observing program and community priorities; fostering compatibility in observing methodology and data management; respect of Indigenous intellectual property rights and the implementation of free, prior, and informed consent; creating sufficient organizational support structures; and ensuring sustained community members’ commitment. Interventions to overcome challenges in adhering to these principles are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hajo Eicken
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States
| | - Finn Danielsen
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States
| | | | - Maryann Fidel
- Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council, Anchorage, Alaska, United States
| | - Noor Johnson
- University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States
| | | | - Olivia A Lee
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States
| | - Katie V Spellman
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States
| | - Lisbeth Iversen
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Martin Enghoff
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States
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8
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Heinze C, Blenckner T, Martins H, Rusiecka D, Döscher R, Gehlen M, Gruber N, Holland E, Hov Ø, Joos F, Matthews JBR, Rødven R, Wilson S. The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2008478118. [PMID: 33619085 PMCID: PMC7936299 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008478118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christoph Heinze
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Helena Martins
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Dagmara Rusiecka
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
| | - Ralf Döscher
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Marion Gehlen
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex, France
| | - Nicolas Gruber
- Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Elisabeth Holland
- Pacific Centre for the Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji
| | - Øystein Hov
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0371 Oslo, Norway
- The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 0271 Oslo, Norway
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - John Brian Robin Matthews
- School of Architecture, Computing and Engineering, University of East London, E16 2RD, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rolf Rødven
- Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Simon Wilson
- Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
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9
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Fan J, Meng J, Ludescher J, Chen X, Ashkenazy Y, Kurths J, Havlin S, Schellnhuber HJ. Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system. PHYSICS REPORTS 2021; 896:1-84. [PMID: 33041465 PMCID: PMC7532523 DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2020.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Accepted: 09/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, multiple interactions and complex structures of the Earth system, the understanding and, in particular, the prediction of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges to both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and geological relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, and entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems. Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics concepts and theories can be useful in the field of Earth system science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingfang Fan
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Jun Meng
- School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Josef Ludescher
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Xiaosong Chen
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yosef Ashkenazy
- Department of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion 84990, Israel
| | - Jürgen Kurths
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- Department of Physics, Humboldt University, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- Lobachevsky University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhnij Novgorod 603950, Russia
| | - Shlomo Havlin
- Department of Physics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan 52900, Israel
| | - Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China
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10
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Klose AK, Karle V, Winkelmann R, Donges JF. Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2020; 7:200599. [PMID: 32742700 PMCID: PMC7353982 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2020] [Accepted: 05/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann Kristin Klose
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Volker Karle
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Am Campus 1, 3400 Klosterneuburg, Austria
| | - Ricarda Winkelmann
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jonathan F. Donges
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
- Author for correspondence: Jonathan F. Donges e-mail:
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11
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Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2201. [PMID: 32366820 PMCID: PMC7198584 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2019] [Accepted: 03/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems. Siberian Arctic permafrost contains vast stores of carbon, the fate of which is dependent on the climate. Here the authors use models of future scenarios to show that under the direst climate changes up to 2/3 of the stored organic carbon could thaw.
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12
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Yumashev D, Hope C, Schaefer K, Riemann-Campe K, Iglesias-Suarez F, Jafarov E, Burke EJ, Young PJ, Elshorbany Y, Whiteman G. Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1900. [PMID: 31015475 PMCID: PMC6478735 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2017] [Accepted: 04/04/2019] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dmitry Yumashev
- Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YX, UK.
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK.
| | - Chris Hope
- Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1AG, UK
| | - Kevin Schaefer
- National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0449, CO, USA
| | - Kathrin Riemann-Campe
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, 27515, Germany
| | - Fernando Iglesias-Suarez
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK
- Department of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Group, Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC, Madrid, 28006, Spain
| | - Elchin Jafarov
- National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0449, CO, USA
- Computational Earth Science, Earth and Environmental Sciences EES-16, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
| | | | - Paul J Young
- Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YX, UK
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK
- Data Science Institute, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YW, UK
| | - Yasin Elshorbany
- College of Arts & Sciences, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA
| | - Gail Whiteman
- Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YX, UK
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13
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Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic. Nat Commun 2018; 9:5423. [PMID: 30575717 PMCID: PMC6303350 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07663-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2018] [Accepted: 11/14/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Local observations indicate that climate change and shifting disturbance regimes are causing permafrost degradation. However, the occurrence and distribution of permafrost region disturbances (PRDs) remain poorly resolved across the Arctic and Subarctic. Here we quantify the abundance and distribution of three primary PRDs using time-series analysis of 30-m resolution Landsat imagery from 1999 to 2014. Our dataset spans four continental-scale transects in North America and Eurasia, covering ~10% of the permafrost region. Lake area loss (-1.45%) dominated the study domain with enhanced losses occurring at the boundary between discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions. Fires were the most extensive PRD across boreal regions (6.59%), but in tundra regions (0.63%) limited to Alaska. Retrogressive thaw slumps were abundant but highly localized (<10-5%). Our analysis synergizes the global-scale importance of PRDs. The findings highlight the need to include PRDs in next-generation land surface models to project the permafrost carbon feedback.
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14
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Global and Arctic climate sensitivity enhanced by changes in North Pacific heat flux. Nat Commun 2018; 9:3124. [PMID: 30087327 PMCID: PMC6081422 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05337-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2017] [Accepted: 06/27/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Arctic amplification is a consequence of surface albedo, cloud, and temperature feedbacks, as well as poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. However, the relative impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and ocean heat flux sourced from different regions on Arctic temperatures are not well constrained. We modify ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic in a climate model to determine the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to zonal heterogeneities in northern hemisphere SST patterns. Both positive and negative ocean heat flux perturbations from the North Pacific result in greater global and Arctic surface air temperature anomalies than equivalent magnitude perturbations from the North Atlantic; a response we primarily attribute to greater moisture flux from the subpolar extratropics to Arctic. Enhanced poleward latent heat and moisture transport drive sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation in the Arctic, amplifying Arctic surface warming through the ice-albedo feedback and infrared warming effect of low clouds. Our results imply that global climate sensitivity may be dependent on patterns of ocean heat flux in the northern hemisphere.
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15
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Chevalier M, Grenouillet G. Global assessment of early warning signs that temperature could undergo regime shifts. Sci Rep 2018; 8:10058. [PMID: 29968797 PMCID: PMC6030089 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-28386-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2017] [Accepted: 06/15/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change metrics have been used to quantify the exposure of geographic areas to different facets of change and relate these facets to different threats and opportunities for biodiversity at a global scale. In parallel, a suite of indicators have been developed to detect approaching transitions between alternative stable states in ecological systems at a local scale. Here, we explore whether particular geographic areas over the world display evidence for upcoming critical transitions in the temperature regime using five Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) commonly used in the literature. Although all EWIs revealed strong spatial variations regarding the likelihood of approaching transitions we found differences regarding the strength and the distribution of trends across the world, suggesting either that different mechanisms might be at play or that EWIs differ in their ability to detect approaching transitions. Nonetheless, a composite EWI, constructed from individual EWIs, showed congruent trends in several areas and highlighted variations across latitudes, between marine and terrestrial systems and among ecoregions within systems. Although the underlying mechanisms are unclear, our results suggest that some areas over the world might change toward an alternative temperature regime in the future with potential implications for the organisms inhabiting these areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Chevalier
- CNRS, Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, ENFA; UMR5174 EDB (Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique), 118 route de Narbonne, F-31062, Toulouse, France.
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7044, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden.
| | - Gaël Grenouillet
- CNRS, Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, ENFA; UMR5174 EDB (Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique), 118 route de Narbonne, F-31062, Toulouse, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
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16
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Iseri Y, Yoshikawa S, Kiguchi M, Tawatari R, Kanae S, Oki T. Towards the incorporation of tipping elements in global climate risk management: probability and potential impacts of passing a threshold. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE 2018; 13:315-328. [PMID: 30147783 PMCID: PMC6086281 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-018-0536-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2017] [Accepted: 01/23/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Evidence suggests that several elements (i.e., subsystems) of the Earth's climate system could tip into a qualitatively different state due to on-going and future anthropogenically induced climate change. Risks associated with tipping could form a component of critical climate risks, and their consideration should be indispensable in decision-making. However, there is lack of scientific knowledge about the risks associated with tipping elements, inhibiting their incorporation into comprehensive risk assessments of climate change (i.e., assessments of impact, adaptation, and mitigation with uncertainty). Using two major tipping elements (Arctic summer sea-ice loss and Greenland ice-sheet melting) as examples, this study attempted to address this lack of knowledge by conducting several calculations under various policy choices based on target temperature, including (i) the probability of passing a threshold temperature in this century and (ii) the potential impact of passing a threshold temperature on a millennial timescale beyond this century. The first theme of this study [Item (i) above] suggested that probability of exceeding the threshold within this century is 24.8% for the Greenland ice sheet and 2.7% for Arctic summer sea ice under a 1.5 °C temperature goal. However, it should be noted that the estimated probabilities of exceeding the threshold are largely dependent on the specification of the probability density function and key assumptions. With regard to the second theme of this study [Item (ii) above], estimation of the potential global coastal exposure using the estimated sea level exhibited a significant gap between scenarios not exceeding the threshold (1.5 °C target) and those exceeding the threshold.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoshihiko Iseri
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1, O-okayama, Meguro, Tokyo, 1528552 Japan
- Hydrologic Research Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 USA
| | - Sayaka Yoshikawa
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1, O-okayama, Meguro, Tokyo, 1528552 Japan
| | - Masashi Kiguchi
- Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo, 1538505 Japan
| | - Ryunosuke Tawatari
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1, O-okayama, Meguro, Tokyo, 1528552 Japan
| | - Shinjiro Kanae
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1, O-okayama, Meguro, Tokyo, 1528552 Japan
| | - Taikan Oki
- Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo, 1538505 Japan
- United Nations University, 5-53-70, Jingumae, Shibuya, Tokyo, 1508925 Japan
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17
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Analysis of trophic interactions reveals highly plastic response to climate change in a tri-trophic High-Arctic ecosystem. Polar Biol 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-015-1872-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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18
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19
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Erickson III DJ, Sulzberger B, Zepp RG, Austin AT. Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2015; 14:127-48. [DOI: 10.1039/c4pp90036g] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Solar UV radiation and climate change interact to influence and determine the environmental conditions for humans on planet Earth.
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Affiliation(s)
- David J. Erickson III
- Computational Earth Sciences Group Computer Science and Mathematics Division
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory
- MS 6016 Oak Ridge TN 37831-6016
- USA
| | - Barbara Sulzberger
- Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
- CH-8600 Duebendorf
- Switzerland
| | - Richard G. Zepp
- United States Environmental Protection Agency
- Georgia 30605-2700
- USA
| | - Amy T. Austin
- Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura (IFEVA) and Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
- Universidad de Buenos Aires
- Buenos Aires
- Argentina
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20
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Holmner A, Rocklöv J, Ng N, Nilsson M. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation. Glob Health Action 2012; 5:GHA-5-18428. [PMID: 22679398 PMCID: PMC3369672 DOI: 10.3402/gha.v5i0.18428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2012] [Revised: 04/27/2012] [Accepted: 05/02/2012] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on ‘green information and communication technology (ICT)’ are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asa Holmner
- Department of Radiation Sciences/Biomedical Engineering, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
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21
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Duarte CM, Agustí S, Wassmann P, Arrieta JM, Alcaraz M, Coello A, Marbà N, Hendriks IE, Holding J, García-Zarandona I, Kritzberg E, Vaqué D. Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem. AMBIO 2012; 41:44-55. [PMID: 22270704 PMCID: PMC3357823 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-011-0224-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos M. Duarte
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
- The UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009 Australia
| | - Susana Agustí
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
- The UWA Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009 Australia
| | - Paul Wassmann
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Bioscience, Fishery and Economy, University of Tromsø, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Jesús M. Arrieta
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
| | - Miquel Alcaraz
- Institut de Ciéncies del Mar, CSIC, Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Alexandra Coello
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
| | - Núria Marbà
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
| | - Iris E. Hendriks
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
| | - Johnna Holding
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
| | - Iñigo García-Zarandona
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain
| | - Emma Kritzberg
- Department of Biology, Lund University Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - Dolors Vaqué
- Institut de Ciéncies del Mar, CSIC, Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
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Abstract
We provide an introduction to the volume The Arctic in the Earth System perspective: the role of tipping points. The terms tipping point and tipping element are described and their role in current science, general debates, and the Arctic are elucidated. From a wider perspective, the volume focuses upon the role of humans in the Arctic component of the Earth system and in particular the envelope for human existence, the Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic climate tipping elements, the tipping elements in Arctic ecosystems and societies, and the challenges of governance and anticipation are illuminated through short summaries of eight publications that derive from the Arctic Frontiers conference in 2011 and the EU FP7 project Arctic Tipping Points. Then some ideas based upon resilience thinking are developed to show how wise system management could ease pressures on Arctic systems in order to keep them away from tipping points.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Wassmann
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Bioscience, Fishery and Economy, University of Tromsø, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Timothy M. Lenton
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Hatherly Laboratories, University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS UK
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23
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Abstract
Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region's natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oran R Young
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California (Santa Barbara), 4518 Bren Hall, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA.
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