Marriage duration and divorce: the seven-year itch or a lifelong itch?

The evolution of demographic methods

Demographic methods have been evolving ever since the birth of demography in response to changes in the field's research contents and theoretical orientations. An early core mission of finding regularities underlying macro-level population phenomena and a later interest in explaining population changes inductively facilitated the development of formal demographic techniques. A more radical methodological shift occurred after the 1960s, with the increasing availability of micro-level survey data and a shift of theoretical focus toward causal mechanisms, leading to the widespread adoption of regression-based models and methods from other social science disciplines. The future development of demographic methods will likely continue to incorporate new methods first developed in other disciplines, including techniques for analyzing unstructured "big" data, but formal demographic techniques will still play a role in population forecasting, measurements improvements, and correction of faulty data, providing foundational knowledge for other social science disciplines.

Controlling forever love

A stable and rewarding love relationship is considered a key ingredient for happiness in Western culture. Building a successful long-term relationship can be viewed as a control engineering problem, where the control variable is the effort to be made to keep the relationship alive and well. We introduce a new mathematical model for the effort control problem of a couple in love who wants to stay together forever. The problem can be naturally formulated as a dynamic game in continuous time with nonlinearities. Adopting a dynamic programming approach, a tractable computational formulation of the problem is proposed together with an accompanying algorithm to find numerical solutions of the couple’s effort problem. The computational analysis of the model is used to explore feeling trajectories, effort control paths, happiness, and stabilization mechanisms for different types of successful couples. In particular, the simulation analysis provides insight into the pattern of change of both marital quality and effort making in intact marriages and how they are affected by certain level of heterogamy in the couple.

Association between marital relationship and multimorbidity in middle-aged adults: a longitudinal study across the US, UK, Europe, and China

BACKGROUND

Marital relationship plays an important role in health and wellbeing. However, how marriage is associated with multimorbidity (the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions) has not been comprehensively investigated. We aimed to assess the association between marriage and multimorbidity in middle-aged adults.

METHODS

We used nationally representative data on 23641 adults aged 50-60 years who participated in four longitudinal studies in the US, UK, Europe, and China (Health and Retirement Study, English Longitudinal Study on Ageing, Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study). Respondents were followed up in 2010-11 (baseline), 2012-13, and 2014-15. We used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the associations between marital status (married/partnered or non-married [separated/devoiced/widowed/never married]), marriage duration and multimorbidity, adjusting for socioeconomic and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

Over 4-year follow-up, 24% (n=5699) of respondents experienced separation, divorce, widowhood, or never-married status, and approximately 43% (n=10228) of respondents reported multimorbidity. Those who were not married had a higher odds of multimorbidity (age-, sex- and region-adjusted odds ratio 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.25). Those who had been married for 21-30 years had a lower odds of experiencing multimorbidity than those married for less than 10 years. The associations remained robust after adjusting for socioeconomic and lifestyle factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Marital relationship (status and length) was associated with multimorbidity in middle-aged adults, highlighting the role of marital relationship in shaping the trajectory of health and wellbeing across the life course. These findings provide insight for the prevention and management of chronic disease and multimorbidity.

Is Parental Divorce Homogamy Associated With a Higher Risk of Separation From Cohabitation and Marriage?

Numerous studies have shown that parental divorce is associated with an increase in adult children's divorce risk. We extend this literature by assessing how parental divorce on both sides of a couple is related to their partnership dynamics, specifically, whether there is parental divorce homogamy and whether a history of parental divorce for both partners is associated with increased dissolution risks for cohabiting and married unions. We use Finnish Census Panel data on 28,021 cohabiting and marital partnerships to conduct event-history models that follow individuals between ages 18 and 45. Findings show substantial parental divorce homogamy. Children with experience of parental divorce have 13% greater odds of cohabiting with and 17% greater odds of marrying a fellow child of divorcees, compared with those whose parents have not divorced. Moreover, contrary to evidence from the United States and Norway, our findings for Finland support an additive-rather than multiplicative-association between parental divorce homogamy and union dissolution. Parental divorce homogamy increases offspring's union dissolution risk by 20% for cohabitation and 70% for marriage, compared with couples for whom neither partner's parents are divorced. In Finland, the sizes of these associations are notably weaker than in the United States and Norway, likely because cohabitation and separation are more widespread and socially accepted in Finland, and an expansive welfare state buffers the socioeconomic consequences of divorce.

Shorter birth intervals between siblings are associated with increased risk of parental divorce

Birth intervals are a crucial component of fertility behaviour and family planning. Short birth intervals are associated—although not necessarily causally—with negative health-related outcomes, but less is known about their associations with family functioning. Here, the associations between birth intervals and marital stability were investigated by Cox regression using a nationally representative, register-based sample of individuals with two (N = 42,481) or three (N = 22,514) children from contemporary Finland (observation period 1972–2009). Shorter interbirth intervals were associated with an increased risk of parental divorce over a ten-year follow-up. Individuals with birth intervals of up to 1.5 years had 24–49 per cent higher divorce risk compared to individuals whose children were born more than 4 years apart. The pattern was similar in all socioeconomic groups and among individuals with earlier and later entry to parenthood. Our results add to the growing body of research showing associations between short birth intervals and negative outcomes in health and family functioning.

Measuring a New Stress Domain: Validation of the Couple-Level Minority Stress Scale

Existing social stress frameworks largely conceive of stress as emanating from individual experience. Recent theory and research concerning minority stress have focused on same-sex couples' experiences of both eventful and chronic stressors associated with being in a stigmatized relationship, including having ongoing or episodic fears of discrimination, and experiencing actual acts of discrimination. Such couple-level minority stressors represent a novel domain of social stress affecting minority populations that is only beginning to become a focus in empirical investigations testing minority stress theory. This article presents the results of psychometric analyses of dyadic data from 106 same-sex couples from across the U.S., introducing the Couple-Level Minority Stress (CLMS) scale featuring eight new couple-level minority stress factors: (1) Couple-Level Stigma; (2) Couple-Level Discrimination; (3) Seeking Safety as a Couple; (4) Perceived Unequal Relationship Recognition; (5) Couple-Level Visibility; (6) Managing Stereotypes about Same-Sex Couples; (7) Lack of Integration with Families of Origin; and (8) Lack of Social Support for Couples. The CLMS demonstrated a clear factor structure with satisfactory model-data fit and subscale reliabilities. The CLMS also exhibited validity as a correlate of one indicator of relationship quality (relationship satisfaction) and three indicators of mental health (nonspecific psychological distress, depressive symptomatology, and problematic drinking) when controlling for individual-level minority stressors and has great potential to extend and enrich minority stress research, particularly studies that deepen understandings of longstanding health inequities based on sexual orientation.

Regional Sex Ratio and the Dissolution of Relationships in Germany

The aim of this study is to analyse the connection between relationship stability and attractive alternatives, which is stressed in micro-level theories on union dissolution. The stability of relationships can be influenced by the availability of alternative partners, whereby the probability that a person will meet these alternatives is determined by the distribution of individuals with specific characteristics in the contextual setting the person is embedded in. Research on this macro-micro connection is sparse in Europe. The availability of alternatives on the contextual level is operationalised through varying sex ratios between and within German districts. The estimation of the union dissolution risk as a function of individual and contextual predictors is based on a discrete-time multilevel event-history analysis using pairfam data and data from official statistics. The main hypothesis, which asserts that there is a positive connection between unbalanced sex ratios and union dissolution, is not supported. This result calls into question the robustness of previous findings.

The reversal of the gender gap in education and relative divorce risks: A matter of alternatives in partner choice?

Recent evidence from the United States suggests that the reversal of the gender gap in education was associated with changes in relative divorce risks: hypogamous marriages, where the wife was more educated than the husband, used to have a higher divorce risk than hypergamous marriages, where the husband was more educated, but this difference has disappeared. One interpretation holds that this may result from cultural change, involving increasing social acceptance of hypogamy. We propose an alternative mechanism that need not presuppose cultural change: the gender-gap reversal in education has changed the availability of alternatives from which highly educated women and men can choose new partners. This may have lowered the likelihood of women leaving husbands with less education and encouraged men to leave less educated spouses. We applied an agent-based model to twelve European national marriage markets to illustrate that this could be sufficient to create a convergence in divorce risks.

Legal Marriage, Unequal Recognition, and Mental Health among Same-Sex Couples

The authors examined whether the perception of unequal relationship recognition, a novel, couple-level minority stressor, has negative consequences for mental health among same-sex couples. Data came from a dyadic study of 100 (N = 200) same-sex couples in the U.S. Being in a legal marriage was associated with lower perceived unequal recognition and better mental health; being in a registered domestic partnership or civil union - not also legally married - was associated with greater perceived unequal recognition and worse mental health. Actor Partner Interdependence Models tested associations between legal relationship status, unequal relationship recognition, and mental health (nonspecific psychological distress, depressive symptomatology, and problematic drinking), net controls (age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and income). Unequal recognition was consistently associated with worse mental health, independent of legal relationship status. Legal changes affecting relationship recognition should not be seen as simple remedies for addressing the mental health effects of institutionalized discrimination.

Couple-level Minority Stress: An Examination of Same-sex Couples' Unique Experiences

Social stress resulting from stigma, prejudice, and discrimination-"minority stress"-negatively impacts sexual minority individuals' health and relational well-being. The present study examined how being in a same-sex couple can result in exposure to unique minority stressors not accounted for at the individual level. Relationship timeline interviews were conducted with 120 same-sex couples equally distributed across two study sites (Atlanta and San Francisco), gender (male and female), and relationship duration (at least six months but less than three years, at least three years but less than seven years, and seven or more years). Directed content analyses identified 17 unique couple-level minority stressors experienced within nine distinct social contexts. Analyses also revealed experiences of dyadic minority stress processes (stress discrepancies and stress contagion). These findings can be useful in future efforts to better understand and address the cumulative impact of minority stress on relational well-being and individual health.

Influence of Heterogamy by Religion on Risk of Marital Dissolution: A Cohort Study of 20,000 Couples

Heterogamous marriages, in which partners have dissimilar attributes (e.g. by socio-economic status or ethnicity), are often at elevated risk of dissolution. We investigated the influences of heterogamy by religion and area of residence on risk of marital dissolution in Northern Ireland, a country with a history of conflict and residential segregation along Catholic-Protestant lines. We expected Catholic-Protestant marriages to have elevated risks of dissolution, especially in areas with high concentrations of a single religious group where opposition to intermarriage was expected to be high. We estimated risks of marital dissolution from 2001 to 2011 for 19,791 couples drawn from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (a record linkage study), adjusting for a range of compositional and contextual factors using multilevel logistic regression. Dissolution risk decreased with increasing age and higher socio-economic status. Catholic-Protestant marriages were rare (5.9 % of the sample) and were at increased risk of dissolution relative to homogamous marriages. We found no association between local population composition and dissolution risk for Catholic-Protestant couples, indicating that partner and household characteristics may have a greater influence on dissolution risk than the wider community.

Second Unions Now More Stable than First? A Comparison of Separation Risks by Union Order in France

The frequency of union dissolutions increased sharply over the past 40 years in Western Europe and North America, resulting in a rapid growth in the number of persons living with a second partner. In studies of the 1980s, primarily conducted within the context of marriage, second partnerships were generally found to be less stable than first unions, but more recent studies provide more conflicting evidence. Taking the example of France, we study whether the relationship between first and second union stability indeed reversed between the 1970s and the 2000s, and how union and individual characteristics contributed to changes over time. The analysis presented here is based on the French Generations and Gender Survey (2005). The article first provides an overview of the differences in marriage, childbearing and breakup behaviours in first and second unions. Second, a piecewise linear model for repeated events is used to compare women's dissolution risks in first and second unions. The results show that over time, the higher instability of second compared to first unions disappeared. Further, women in second unions adopted unmarried cohabitation as a living arrangement more often across the whole period and were more likely to have stepchildren, which was associated with less stable unions. Taking into account this diversity of family situations, i.e. controlling for family form and children, second unions were more stable than first unions, even during the past. At both union orders, marriage breakup risks tended to stabilise despite a continuing increase in the prevalence of separation, which suggests that cohabitation increasingly acts as a filter for marriage.

Assortative mating and the reversal of gender inequality in education in europe: an agent-based model

While men have always received more education than women in the past, this gender imbalance in education has turned around in large parts of the world. In many countries, women now excel men in terms of participation and success in higher education. This implies that, for the first time in history, there are more highly educated women than men reaching the reproductive ages and looking for a partner. We develop an agent-based computational model that explicates the mechanisms that may have linked the reversal of gender inequality in education with observed changes in educational assortative mating. Our model builds on the notion that individuals search for spouses in a marriage market and evaluate potential candidates based on preferences. Based on insights from earlier research, we assume that men and women prefer partners with similar educational attainment and high earnings prospects, that women tend to prefer men who are somewhat older than themselves, and that men prefer women who are in their mid-twenties. We also incorporate the insight that the educational system structures meeting opportunities on the marriage market. We assess the explanatory power of our model with systematic computational experiments, in which we simulate marriage market dynamics in 12 European countries among individuals born between 1921 and 2012. In these experiments, we make use of realistic agent populations in terms of educational attainment and earnings prospects and validate model outcomes with data from the European Social Survey. We demonstrate that the observed changes in educational assortative mating can be explained without any change in male or female preferences. We argue that our model provides a useful computational laboratory to explore and quantify the implications of scenarios for the future.

Similar Others in Same-Sex Couples' Social Networks

Same-sex couples experience unique minority stressors. It is known that strong social networks facilitate access to psychosocial resources that help people reduce and manage stress. However, little is known about the social networks of same-sex couples, in particular their connections to other same-sex couples, which is important to understand given that the presence of similar others in social networks can ameliorate social stress for stigmatized populations. In this brief report, we present data from a diverse sample of 120 same-sex couples in Atlanta and San Francisco. The median number of other same-sex couples known was 12; couples where one partner was non-Hispanic White and the other a person of color knew relatively few other same-sex couples; and there was a high degree of homophily within the social networks of same-sex couples. These data establish a useful starting point for future investigations of couples' social networks, especially couples whose relationships are stigmatized or marginalized in some way. Better understandings of the size, composition, and functions of same-sex couples' social networks are critically needed.