Estimating the Reference Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio for the Australian Health System

Is a larger patient benefit always better in healthcare priority setting?

When considering the introduction of a new intervention in a budget constrained healthcare system, priority setting based on fair principles is fundamental. In many jurisdictions, a multi-criteria approach with several different considerations is employed, including severity and cost-effectiveness. Such multi-criteria approaches raise questions about how to balance different considerations against each other, and how to understand the logical or normative relations between them. For example, some jurisdictions make explicit reference to a large patient benefit as such a consideration. However, since patient benefit is part of a cost-effectiveness assessment it is not clear how to balance considerations of greater patient benefit against considerations of severity and cost-effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of a large patient benefit as an independent criterion for priority setting in a healthcare system also considering severity and cost-effectiveness. By taking the opportunity cost of new interventions (i.e., the health forgone in patients already receiving treatment) into account, we argue that patient benefit has a complex relationship to priority setting. More specifically, it cannot be reasonably concluded that large patient benefits should be given priority if severity, cost-effectiveness, and opportunity costs are held constant. Since we cannot find general support for taking patient benefit into account as an independent criterion from any of the most discussed theories about distributive justice: utilitarianism, prioritarianism, telic egalitarianism and sufficientarianism, it is reasonable to avoid doing so. Hence, given the complexity of the role of patient benefit, we conclude that in priority practice, a large patient benefit should not be considered as an independent criterion, on top of considerations of severity and cost-effectiveness.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an individualised, progressive walking and education intervention for the prevention of low back pain recurrence in Australia (WalkBack): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of low back pain is common and a substantial contributor to the disease and economic burden of low back pain. Exercise is recommended to prevent recurrence, but the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an accessible and low-cost intervention, such as walking, is yet to be established. We aimed to investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an individualised, progressive walking and education intervention to prevent the recurrence of low back pain.

METHODS

WalkBack was a two-armed, randomised controlled trial, which recruited adults (aged 18 years or older) from across Australia who had recently recovered from an episode of non-specific low back pain that was not attributed to a specific diagnosis, and which lasted for at least 24 h. Participants were randomly assigned to an individualised, progressive walking and education intervention facilitated by six sessions with a physiotherapist across 6 months or to a no treatment control group (1:1). The randomisation schedule comprised randomly permuted blocks of 4, 6, and 8 and was stratified by history of more than two previous episodes of low back pain and referral method. Physiotherapists and participants were not masked to allocation. Participants were followed for a minimum of 12 months and a maximum of 36 months, depending on the date of enrolment. The primary outcome was days to the first recurrence of an activity-limiting episode of low back pain, collected in the intention-to-treat population via monthly self-report. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from the societal perspective and expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The trial was prospectively registered (ACTRN12619001134112).

FINDINGS

Between Sept 23, 2019, and June 10, 2022, 3206 potential participants were screened for eligibility, 2505 (78%) were excluded, and 701 were randomly assigned (351 to the intervention group and 350 to the no treatment control group). Most participants were female (565 [81%] of 701) and the mean age of participants was 54 years (SD 12). The intervention was effective in preventing an episode of activity-limiting low back pain (hazard ratio 0·72 [95% CI 0·60-0·85], p=0·0002). The median days to a recurrence was 208 days (95% CI 149-295) in the intervention group and 112 days (89-140) in the control group. The incremental cost per QALY gained was AU$7802, giving a 94% probability that the intervention was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $28 000. Although the total number of participants experiencing at least one adverse event over 12 months was similar between the intervention and control groups (183 [52%] of 351 and 190 [54%] of 350, respectively, p=0·60), there was a greater number of adverse events related to the lower extremities in the intervention group than in the control group (100 in the intervention group and 54 in the control group).

INTERPRETATION

An individualised, progressive walking and education intervention significantly reduced low back pain recurrence. This accessible, scalable, and safe intervention could affect how low back pain is managed.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia.

Use of Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds in Healthcare Public Policy: Progress and Challenges

The article offers a comparative analysis of the influence of cost-effectiveness thresholds in the decision-making processes in financing policies, coverage, and price regulation of health technologies in nine countries. We investigated whether countries used cost-effectiveness thresholds for public health policy decision making and found that few countries have adopted the cost-effectiveness threshold as an official criterion for financing, reimbursement, or pricing. However, in countries where it is applied, such as Thailand, the results have been very favorable in terms of minimizing health technology prices and ensuring the financial sustainability of the health system. Although the cost-effectiveness threshold has opportunities for improvement, particularly in certain institutional contexts and with adequate participation of the different strategic actors in the formulation of public policy, its potential use and added value are significant in various aspects.

The Modeled Cost-Effectiveness of a Prevention Program Targeting Both Eating Disorders and High BMI

OBJECTIVE

Prevention programs for eating disorders (EDs) and high body index mass (BMI) have the potential to reduce the onset of these interconnected public health concerns. However, it remains unclear whether routine implementation of such programs would be cost-effective. This study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of an intervention that aims to prevent both ED and high BMI.

METHOD

A Markov model was developed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness of a targeted school-based program, Healthy Weight, that aims to prevent both EDs and high BMI among Australian adolescents with body image concerns (aged 15-18 years), versus a "no intervention" comparator. A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a "healthcare and education" sector perspective with costs (measured in 2019 Australian dollars) and health impacts modeled over the lifetime of the target population. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per health-adjusted life year (HALY) gained, was calculated. Sensitivity analyses were done to test model assumptions.

RESULTS

The mean intervention cost and HALYs gained were AUD$2.13 million (95% CI, AUD$1.83-2.43 million) and 146 (95% CI, 90-209), respectively. With healthcare cost-savings (AUD$3.97 million) included, the intervention was predicted to be cost-saving (AUD$1.83 million; 95% CI, AUD$0.51-3.21 million). Primary findings were robust to extensive sensitivity analyses.

DISCUSSION

The Healthy Weight intervention is likely to represent good value-for-money. To ensure the successful implementation of this program at the population level, further research on its feasibility and acceptability among schools and the wider community is required.

The Hidden Toll of Psychological Distress in Australian Adults and Its Impact on Health-Related Quality of Life Measured as Health State Utilities

BACKGROUND

Psychological distress (PD) is a major health problem that affects all aspects of health-related quality of life including physical, mental and social health, leading to a substantial human and economic burden. Studies have revealed a concerning rise in the prevalence of PD and various mental health conditions among Australians, particularly in female individuals. There is a scarcity of studies that estimate health state utilities (HSUs), which reflect the overall health-related quality of life in individuals with PD. No such studies have been conducted in Australia thus far.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the age-specific, sex-specific and PD category-specific HSUs (disutilities) in Australian adults with PD to inform healthcare decision making in the management of PD.

METHODS

Data on age, sex, SF-36/SF6D responses, Kessler psychological distress (K10) scale scores and other characteristics of N = 15,139 participants (n = 8149 female individuals) aged >15 years were derived from the latest wave (21) of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia survey. Participants were grouped into the severity categories of no (K10 score: 10-19), mild (K10: 20-24), moderate (K10: 25-29) and severe PD (K10: 30-50). Both crude and adjusted HSUs were calculated from participants' SF-36 profiles, considering potential confounders such as smoking, marital status, remoteness, education and income levels. The calculations were based on the SF-6D algorithm and aligned with Australian population norms. Additionally, the HSUs were stratified by age, sex and PD categories. Disutilities of PD, representing the mean difference between HSUs of people with PD and those without, were also calculated for each group.

RESULTS

The average age of individuals was 46.130 years (46% male), and 31% experienced PD in the last 4 weeks. Overall, individuals with PD had significantly lower mean HSUs than those likely to be no PD, 0.637 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.636, 0.640) vs 0.776 (95% CI 0.775, 0.777) i.e. disutility: -0.139 [95% CI -0.139, -0.138]). Mean disutilities of -0.108 (95% CI -0.110, -0.104), -0.140 (95% CI -0.142, -0.138), and -0.188 (95% CI -0.190, -0.187) were observed for mild PD, moderate PD and severe PD, respectively. Disutilities of PD also differed by age and sex groups. For instance, female individuals had up to 0.049 points lower mean HSUs than male individuals across the three classifications of PD. There was a clear decline in health-related quality of life with increasing age, demonstrated by lower mean HSUs in older population age groups, that ranged from 0.818 (95% CI 0.817, 0.818) for the 15-24 years age group with no PD to 0.496 (95% CI 0.491, 0.500) for the 65+ years age group with severe PD). Across all ages and genders, respondents were more likely to report issues in certain dimensions, notably vitality, and these responses did not uniformly align with ageing.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of PD in Australia is substantial, with a significant impact on female individuals and older individuals. Implementing age-specific and sex-specific healthcare interventions to address PD among Australian adults may greatly alleviate this burden. The PD state-specific HSUs calculated in our study can serve as valuable inputs for future health economic evaluations of PD in Australia and similar populations.

Cost-utility analysis of adjunct repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation for treatment resistant bipolar depression

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) as an adjunct to standard care from an Australian health sector perspective, compared to standard care alone for adults with treatment-resistant bipolar depression (TRBD).

METHODS

An economic model was developed to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for rTMS added to standard care compared to standard care alone, for adults with TRBD. The model simulated the time in three health states (mania, depression, residual) over one year. Response to rTMS was sourced from a meta-analysis, converted to a relative risk and used to modify the time in the depressed state. Uncertainty and sensitivity tested the robustness of results.

RESULTS

Base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were $72,299 per DALY averted (95 % Uncertainty Interval (UI): $60,915 to $86,668) and $46,623 per QALY gained (95 % UI: $39,676 - $55,161). At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $96,000 per DALY averted, the base-case had a 100 % probability of being marginally cost-effective. At a WTP threshold of $64,000 per QALY gained, the base-case had a 100 % probability of being cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses decreasing the number of sessions provided, increasing the disability weight or the time spent in the depression state for standard care improved the ICERs for rTMS.

CONCLUSIONS

Dependent on the outcome measure utilised and assumptions, rTMS would be considered a very cost-effective or marginally cost-effective adjunct to standard care for TRBD compared to standard care alone.

Factors associated with the author-reported cost-effectiveness threshold in high-income countries: systematic review and multivariable modelling

OBJECTIVE

The cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) is a key parameter to guide objective reimbursement decisions, yet very few countries have defined a reference CET, and there is no reference method for defining it. Our objective was to determine the factors explaining the author-reported CETs in the literature.

METHODS

Our systematic review targeted original articles referenced in EMBASE and published between 2010 and 2021. Selected studies had to use Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY), and being conducted in high-income countries. Our explanatory variables were: estimated cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), region of the world, source of funding, type of intervention, disease, year of publication, justification of the author-reported Cost-Effectiveness Threshold (ar-CET), economic perspective, and declaration of interest. Multivariable linear regression models implemented on R software were used, guided by a Directed Acyclic Graph.

RESULTS

Two hundred and fifty four studies were included. The mean ar-CET was €63,338/QALY (standard deviation (SD) 34,965) overall, and €37,748/QALY (SD 20,750) in studies conducted in the British Commonwealth. The ar-CET increased slightly with the ICER (+ 66€/QALY for each additional 10,000€/QALY in the ICER, 95% confidence interval (IC) [31-102], p < 0.001), was higher in the United States (+ 36,225€/QALY; IC [25,582; 46,869]) and Europe (+ 10,352€/QALY; IC [72; 20,631]) compared to the British Commonwealth (p < 0.001), and was higher when the ar-CET was not defined a priori (+ 22,393€/QALY; [5809; 38,876]) compared to state recommendations defined ar-CET (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results underline the virtuous role of state recommendations in the choice of a low and homogeneous CET. We also highlight the need to integrate the a priori justification of the CET into good publishing guidelines.

Comparative effectiveness of digital mental healthcare models for adults with epilepsy: A study protocol of a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

Mental health complaints are prevalent among people with epilepsy, yet there are major barriers that prevent access to psychological care, including high out-of-pocket costs and a lack of accessible specialized services. The purpose of the current study is to examine the comparative efficacy, acceptability, cost-effectiveness, and long-term outcomes of a digital psychological intervention when delivered under two models of care (i.e., guided vs. unguided) in supporting the mental health and functioning of adults with epilepsy.

METHOD

Approximately 375 participants across Australia will be enrolled. Eligible participants will have a confirmed diagnosis of epilepsy, experience difficulties with their emotional health, be at least 18 years of age, and live in Australia. Participants will be randomized (2:2:1) to receive the Wellbeing Neuro Course, a 10-week internet-delivered program, with (i.e., guided) or without guidance by a mental health clinician (i.e., unguided), or be allocated to a treatment-as-usual waiting-list control group. Participants will complete online questionnaires at pre-, post-treatment, and 3- and 12-month follow-up and consent to have their data linked to their medical records to capture healthcare system resource use and costs.

ANALYSIS

Primary outcome measures will be symptoms of depression and anxiety. A cost-utility analysis will be undertaken using the Australian healthcare system perspective and according to current economic evaluation guidelines. Resource use and costs to the healthcare system during the study period will be captured via data linkage to relevant administrative datasets in Australia.

SIGNIFICANCE

The results of this trial will provide important data concerning the relative outcomes of these different models of care and will inform the integration of digital psychological interventions translation into healthcare services.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Human Research Ethics Committee of Macquarie University approved the proposed study (Reference No: 520231325151475). The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication(s).

ANZCTR TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12623001327673.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

This study seeks to find out if a 10-week online psychological treatment can improve the mental health and well-being of Australian adults with epilepsy. Around 375 participants will be randomly assigned to different groups: one will receive treatment with guidance from mental health clinician (guided group), one without guidance (unguided group), and one starting later (waiting control group). All participants will fill out the same outcome measures online. The main goal of this research is to compare these groups and assess how well the treatment works in improving mental health outcomes.

High-Intensity Aphasia Therapy Is Cost-Effective in People With Poststroke Aphasia: Evidence From the COMPARE Trial

BACKGROUND

Evidence from systematic reviews confirms that speech and language interventions for people with aphasia during the chronic phase after stroke (>6 months) improve word retrieval, functional communication, and communication-related quality of life. However, there is limited evidence of their cost-effectiveness. We aimed to estimate the cost per quality-adjusted life year gained from 2 speech and language therapies compared with usual care in people with aphasia during the chronic phase (median, 2.9 years) after stroke.

METHODS

A 3-arm, randomized controlled trial compared constraint-induced aphasia therapy plus (CIAT-Plus) and multimodality aphasia therapy (M-MAT) with usual care in 216 people with chronic aphasia. Participants were administered a standardized questionnaire before intervention and at 12 weeks after the 2-week intervention/control period to ascertain health service utilization, employment changes, and informal caregiver burden. Unit prices from Australian sources were used to estimate costs in 2020. Quality-adjusted life years were estimated using responses to the EuroQol-5 Dimension-3 Level questionnaire. To test uncertainty around the differences in costs and outcomes between groups, bootstrapping was used with the cohorts resampled 1000 times.

RESULTS

Overall 201/216 participants were included (mean age, 63 years, 29% moderate or severe aphasia, 61 usual care, 70 CIAT-Plus, 70 M-MAT). There were no statistically significant differences in mean total costs ($13 797 usual care, $17 478 CIAT-Plus, $11 113 M-MAT) and quality-adjusted life years (0.19 usual care, 0.20 CIAT-Plus, 0.20 M-MAT) between groups. In bootstrapped analysis of CIAT-Plus, 21.5% of iterations were likely to result in better outcomes and be cost saving (dominant) compared with usual care. In contrast, 72.4% of iterations were more favorable for M-MAT than usual care.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed that both treatments, but especially M-MAT, may result in better outcomes at an acceptable additional cost, or potentially with cost savings. These findings are relevant in advocating for the use of these therapies for chronic aphasia after stroke.

A systematic review on the direct approach to elicit the demand-side cost-effectiveness threshold: Implications for low- and middle-income countries

Several literature review studies have been conducted on cost-effectiveness threshold values. However, only a few are systematic literature reviews, and most did not investigate the different methods, especially in-depth reviews of directly eliciting WTP per QALY. Our study aimed to 1) describe the different direct approach methods to elicit WTP/QALY; 2) investigate factors that contribute the most to the level of WTP/QALY value; and 3) investigate the relation between the value of WTP/QALY and GDP per capita and give some recommendations on feasible methods for eliciting WTP/QALY in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A systematic review concerning select studies estimating WTP/QALY from a direct approach was carried out in seven databases, with a cut off date of 03/2022. The conversion of monetary values into 2021 international dollars (i$) was performed via CPI and PPP indexes. The influential factors were evaluated with Bayesian model averaging. Criteria for recommendation for feasible methods in LMICs are made based on empirical evidence from the systematic review and given the resource limitation in LMICs. A total of 12,196 records were identified; 64 articles were included for full-text review. The WTP/QALY method and values varied widely across countries with a median WTP/QALY value of i$16,647.6 and WTP/QALY per GDP per capita of 0.53. A total of 11 factors were most influential, in which the discrete-choice experiment method had a posterior probability of 100%. Methods for deriving WTP/QALY vary largely across studies. Eleven influential factors contribute most to the level of values of WTP/QALY, in which the discrete-choice experiment method was the greatest affected. We also found that in most countries, values for WTP/QALY were below 1 x GDP per capita. Some important principles are addressed related to what LMICs may be concerned with when conducting studies to estimate WTP/QALY.

Systematic review of the impact of health care expenditure on health outcome measures: implications for cost-effectiveness thresholds

OBJECTIVE

Empirical estimates of the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures may inform the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) for guiding funding decisions. This study aims to systematically review studies that estimated this, summarize and compare the estimates by country income level.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, York Research database, and [anonymized] for Reviews and Dissemination database from inception to 1 August 2023. For inclusion, a study had to be an original article, estimating the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures at a country level, and presented estimates, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or disability-adjusted life year (DALY).

RESULTS

We included 18 studies with 385 estimates. The median (range) estimates were PPP$ 11,224 (PPP$ 223 - PPP$ 288,816) per QALY gained and PPP$ 5,963 (PPP$ 71 - PPP$ 165,629) per DALY averted. As ratios of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPPC), these estimates were 0.376 (0.041-182.840) and 0.318 (0.004-37.315) times of GDPPC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The commonly used CET of GDPPC seems to be too high for all countries, but especially low-to-middle-income countries where the potential health losses from misallocation of the same money are greater.

REGISTRATION

The review protocol was published and registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020147276).

Cost-effectiveness of taurolidine-citrate in a cohort of patients with intestinal failure receiving home parenteral nutrition

BACKGROUND

Catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in patients receiving home parenteral nutrition (HPN) for chronic intestinal failure (CIF) are associated with significant morbidity and financial costs. Taurolidine is associated with a reduction in bloodstream infections, with limited information on the cost-effectiveness as the primary prevention. This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of using taurolidine-citrate for the primary prevention of CRBSIs within a quaternary hospital.

METHODS

All patients with CIF receiving HPN were identified between January 2015 and November 2022. Data were retrospectively collected regarding patient demographics, HPN use, CRBSI diagnosis, and use of taurolidine-citrate. The direct costs associated with CRBSI-associated admissions and taurolidine-citrate use were obtained from the coding department using a bottom-up approach. An incremental cost-effective analysis was performed, with a time horizon of 4 years, to compare the costs associated with primary and secondary prevention against the outcome of cost per infection avoided.

RESULTS

Forty-four patients received HPN within this period. The CRBSI rates were 3.25 infections per 1000 catheter days before the use of taurolidine-citrate and 0.35 infections per 1000 catheter days after taurolidine-citrate use. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio indicates primary prevention is the weakly dominant intervention, with the base case value of $27.04 per CRBSI avoided. This held with one-way sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

Taurolidine-citrate in the primary prevention of CRBSIs in patients with CIF receiving HPN is associated with reduced hospital costs and infection rates.

Health economics in nursing research: what you need to know to include economic evaluation methodology in your research

Due to limited resources and constant, ever-changing healthcare challenges, health economics is essential to support healthcare decisions while improving health outcomes. Economic evaluation methodology facilitates informed decision-making related to the efficient allocation of resources while positively impacting clinical practice. In this paper, we provide an overview of economic evaluation methods and a real-world example applying one method of economic evaluation (cost-utility analysis) in nursing research.

Willingness to pay for cancer prevention versus treatment in China: implications for cost-effectiveness threshold

BACKGROUND

Empirical support for the appropriate cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) in China remains sparse.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for cancer prevention and treatment from the perspective of healthcare policy-makers (i.e. supply side) and to investigate whether there is a difference between the estimated WTP in two scenarios.

METHODS

We conducted a web-based survey from May to July 2022 among experts who offering consultation to the government. We surveyed 79 experts from a national think-tank (84.81% response rate) using contingent valuation method, a method for estimating the monetary value that individuals place on a non-market service.

RESULTS

The mean WTP for two scenarios were estimated at 1.29 times of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China and 1.90 times of per capita GDP, respectively. There was a difference between the WTP in the two scenarios and the WTP for treatment was significantly higher than prevention.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that though there is a smaller gap between the two scenarios in China as compared to other countries, the WTP may vary under different scenarios. So there's a need to further refine the development of CET by adding parameters like prevention instead of defining one universal threshold.

Combined population genomic screening for three high-risk conditions in Australia: a modelling study

Background

No previous health-economic evaluation has assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering combined adult population genomic screening for mutliple high-risk conditions in a national public healthcare system.

Methods

This modeling study assessed the impact of offering combined genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, Lynch syndrome and familial hypercholesterolaemia to all young adults in Australia, compared with the current practice of clinical criteria-based testing for each condition separately. The intervention of genomic screening, assumed as an up-front single cost in the first annual model cycle, would detect pathogenic variants in seven high-risk genes. The simulated population was 18-40 year-olds (8,324,242 individuals), modelling per-sample test costs ranging AU$100-$1200 (base-case AU$200) from the year 2023 onwards with testing uptake of 50%. Interventions for identified high-risk variant carriers follow current Australian guidelines, modelling imperfect uptake and adherence. Outcome measures were morbidity and mortality due to cancer (breast, ovarian, colorectal and endometrial) and coronary heart disease (CHD) over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare-system and societal perspectives. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually (with 3% discounting in scenario analysis).

Findings

Over the population lifetime (to age 80 years), the model estimated that genomic screening per-100,000 individuals would lead to 747 QALYs gained by preventing 63 cancers, 31 CHD cases and 97 deaths. In the total model population, this would translate to 31,094 QALYs gained by preventing 2612 cancers, 542 non-fatal CHD events and 4047 total deaths. At AU$200 per-test, genomic screening would require an investment of AU$832 million for screening of 50% of the population. Our findings suggest that this intervention would be cost-effective from a healthcare-system perspective, yielding an ICER of AU$23,926 (∼£12,050/€14,110/US$15,345) per QALY gained over the status quo. In scenario analysis with 3% discounting, an ICER of AU$4758/QALY was obtained. Sensitivity analysis for the base case indicated that combined genomic screening would be cost-effective under 70% of simulations, cost-saving under 25% and not cost-effective under 5%. Threshold analysis showed that genomic screening would be cost-effective under the AU$50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold at per-test costs up to AU$325 (∼£164/€192/US$208).

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that offering combined genomic screening for high-risk conditions to young adults would be cost-effective in the Australian public healthcare system, at currently realistic testing costs. Other matters, including psychosocial impacts, ethical and societal issues, and implementation challenges, also need consideration.

Funding

Australian Government, Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, Genomics Health Futures Mission (APP2009024). National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102604).

Expanding access to high-cost medicines under the Universal Health Coverage scheme in Thailand: review of current practices and recommendations

BACKGROUND

There has been an increasing demand to reimburse high-cost medicines, through public health insurance schemes in Thailand.

METHODS

A mixed method approach was employed. First, a rapid review of select high-income countries was conducted, followed by expert consultations and an in-depth review of three countries: Australia, England and Republic of Korea to understand reimbursement mechanisms of high-cost medicines. In Thailand, current pathways for reimbursing high-cost medicines reviewed, the potential opportunity cost estimated, and stakeholder consultations were conducted to identify context specific considerations.

RESULTS

High-income countries reviewed have implemented a variety of pathways and mechanisms for reimbursing high-cost medicines under specific eligibility criteria, listing processes, varying cost-effectiveness thresholds and special funding arrangements. In Thailand, high-cost medicines that do not offer good value-for-money are excluded from the reimbursement process. A framework for reimbursing high-cost medicines that are not cost-effective at the current willingness-to-pay threshold was proposed for Thailand. Under this framework, specific criteria are proposed to determine their eligibility for reimbursement such life-saving nature, treatment of conditions with no alternative treatment options, and affordability.

CONCLUSION

High-cost medicines may become eligible for reimbursement through alternative mechanisms based on specific criteria which depend on each context. The application of HTA methods and processes is important in guiding these decisions to support sustainable access to affordable healthcare in pursuit of Universal Health Coverage (UHC).

Estimating the cost-effectiveness threshold of advanced non-small cell lung cancer in China using mean opportunity cost and contingent valuation method

OBJECTIVES

Monetizing health has sparked controversy and has implications for pricing strategies of emerging health technologies. Medical insurance payers typically set up thresholds for quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gains based on health productivity and budget affordability, but they rarely consider patient willingness-to-pay (WTP). Our study aims to compare Chinese payer threshold and patient WTP toward QALY gain of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to inform a potential inclusion of patient WTP under more complex decision-making scenarios.

METHODS

A regression model was constructed with cost as the independent variable and QALY as the dependent variable, where the regression coefficients reflect mean opportunity cost, and by transforming these coefficients, the payer threshold can be obtained. Patient WTP was elicited through a contingent valuation method survey. The robustness of the findings was examined through sensitivity analyses of model parameters and patient heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The payer mean threshold in the base-case was estimated at 150,962 yuan (1.86 times per capita GDP, 95% CI 144,041-159,204). The two scenarios analysis generated by different utility inputs yielded thresholds of 112,324 yuan (1.39 times per capita GDP) and 111,824 yuan (1.38 times per capita GDP), respectively. The survey included 85 patients, with a mean WTP of 148,443 yuan (1.83 times per capita GDP, 95% CI 120,994-175,893) and median value was 106,667 yuan (1.32 times the GDP per capita). Due to the substantial degree of dispersion, the median was more representative. The payer threshold was found to have a high probability (98.5%) of falling within the range of 1-2 times per capita GDP, while the robustness of patient WTP was relatively weak.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, a country with a copayment system, payer threshold was higher than patient WTP, indicating that medical insurance holds significant decision-making authority, thus temporarily negating the need to consider patient WTP.

Targeting Diabetes Prevention to More Disadvantaged Groups Improves Cost-Effectiveness: Implications of Inequality in Type 2 Diabetes From Theoretical Interventions

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effect of socioeconomic status on efficacy and cost thresholds at which theoretical diabetes prevention policies become cost-effective.

METHODS

We designed a life table model using real-world data that captured diabetes incidence and all-cause mortality in people with and without diabetes by socioeconomic disadvantage. The model used data from the Australian diabetes registry for people with diabetes and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare for the general population. We simulated theoretical diabetes prevention policies and estimated the threshold at which they would be cost-effective and cost saving, overall, and by socioeconomic disadvantage, from the public healthcare perspective.

RESULTS

From 2020 to 2029, 653 980 people were projected to develop type 2 diabetes, 101 583 in the least disadvantaged quintile and 166 744 in the most. Theoretical diabetes prevention policies that reduce diabetes incidence by 10% and 25% would be cost-effective in the total population at a maximum per person cost of Australian dollar (AU$) 74 (95% uncertainty interval: 53-99) and AU$187 (133-249) and cost saving at AU$26 (20-33) and AU$65 (50-84). Theoretical diabetes prevention policies remained cost-effective at a higher cost in the most versus least disadvantaged quintile (eg, a policy that reduces type 2 diabetes incidence by 25% would be cost-effective at AU$238 [169-319] per person in the most disadvantaged quintile vs AU$144 [103-192] in the least).

CONCLUSIONS

Policies targeted at more disadvantaged populations will likely be cost-effective at higher costs and lower efficacy compared to untargeted policies. Future health economic models should incorporate measures of socioeconomic disadvantage to improve targeting of interventions.

A Scoping Review of Economic Evaluations to Inform the Reorientation of Preventive Health Services in Australia

The Australian National Preventive Health Strategy 2021-2030 recommended the establishment of evidence-based frameworks to enable local public health services to identify strategies and interventions that deliver value for money. This study aimed to review the cost-effectiveness of preventive health strategies to inform the reorientation of local public health services towards preventive health interventions that are financially sustainable. Four electronic databases were searched for reviews published between 2005 and February 2022. Reviews that met the following criteria were included: population: human studies, any age or sex; concept 1: primary and/or secondary prevention interventions; concept 2: full economic evaluation; context: local public health services as the provider of concept 1. The search identified 472 articles; 26 were included. Focus health areas included mental health (n = 3 reviews), obesity (n = 1), type 2 diabetes (n = 3), dental caries (n = 2), public health (n = 4), chronic disease (n = 5), sexual health (n = 1), immunisation (n = 1), smoking cessation (n = 3), reducing alcohol (n = 1), and fractures (n = 2). Interventions that targeted obesity, type 2 diabetes, smoking cessation, and fractures were deemed cost-effective, however, more studies are needed, especially those that consider equity in priority populations.

Cost-effectiveness of Prednisolone to Treat Bell Palsy in Children: An Economic Evaluation Alongside a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Bell palsy is the third most frequent diagnosis in children with sudden-onset neurologic dysfunction. The cost-effectiveness of treating Bell palsy with prednisolone in children is unknown. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of prednisolone in treating Bell palsy in children compared with placebo.

METHODS

This economic evaluation was a prospectively planned secondary analysis of a double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled superiority trial (Bell Palsy in Children [BellPIC]) conducted from 2015 to 2020. The time horizon was 6 months since randomization. Children aged 6 months to <18 years who presented within 72 hours of onset of clinician-diagnosed Bell palsy and who completed the trial were included (N = 180). Interventions were oral prednisolone or taste-matched placebo administered for 10 days. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing prednisolone with placebo was estimated. Costs were considered from a health care sector perspective and included Bell palsy-related medication cost, doctor visits, and medical tests. Effectiveness was measured using quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) based on Child Health Utility 9D. Nonparametric bootstrapping was performed to capture uncertainties. Prespecified subgroup analysis by age 12 to <18 years vs <12 years was conducted.

RESULTS

The mean cost per patient was A$760 in the prednisolone group and A$693 in the placebo group over the 6-month period (difference A$66, 95% CI -A$47 to A$179). QALYs over 6 months were 0.45 in the prednisolone group and 0.44 in the placebo group (difference 0.01, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.03). The incremental cost to achieve 1 additional recovery was estimated to be A$1,577 using prednisolone compared with placebo, and cost per additional QALY gained was A$6,625 using prednisolone compared with placebo. Given a conventional willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000 per QALY gained (equivalent to US$35,000 or £28,000), prednisolone is very likely cost-effective (probability is 83%). Subgroup analysis suggests that this was primarily driven by the high probability of prednisolone being cost-effective in children aged 12 to <18 years (probability is 98%) and much less so for those <12 years (probability is 51%).

DISCUSSION

This provides new evidence to stakeholders and policymakers when considering whether to make prednisolone available in treating Bell palsy in children aged 12 to <18 years.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12615000563561.

Cost-Effectiveness of Telehealth-Delivered Exercise and Dietary Weight Loss Programs for Knee Osteoarthritis Within a Twelve-Month Randomized Trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of telehealth-delivered exercise and diet-plus-exercise programs within 12 months.

METHODS

An economic evaluation within a 12-month, 3-arm, parallel randomized trial of two 6-month telehealth-delivered exercise programs, with and without a dietary component. A total of 415 people with knee osteoarthritis ages 45-80 years and body mass index of 28-40 kg/m2 were assigned to 1 of 2 telehealth-delivered exercise programs, 1 without (n = 172) and 1 with (n = 175) a dietary component (ketogenic very low calorie diet), or to an education control (n = 67), for 6 months, with 6 months follow-up. The primary economic outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health system costs. Measured costs were the direct intervention (consultations, equipment/resources, and meal replacements) and health care use in 2020 Australian dollars ($AU1.5 = $US1). Secondary analysis included weight loss and work productivity gains.

RESULTS

The clinical trial demonstrated greater improvements in pain and function compared to information only for individuals with knee osteoarthritis and overweight/obesity. We can be 88% confident that diet plus exercise is cost effective ($45,500 per QALY), 53% confident that exercise is cost-effective ($67,600 per QALY) compared to the control, and 86% confident that augmenting exercise with the diet program is cost effective ($21,100 per QALY).

CONCLUSION

Telehealth-delivered programs targeting exercise with dietary intervention for people with knee osteoarthritis who have overweight/obesity are likely to be cost-effective, particularly if potential long-term gains from weight loss and work productivity are realized.

Determining the efficiency path to universal health coverage: cost-effectiveness thresholds for 174 countries based on growth in life expectancy and health expenditures

BACKGROUND

Assessment of the efficiency of interventions is paramount to achieving equitable health-care systems. One key barrier to the widespread use of economic evaluations in resource allocation decisions is the absence of a widely accepted method to define cost-effectiveness thresholds to judge whether an intervention is cost-effective in a particular jurisdiction. We aimed to develop a method to estimate cost-effectiveness thresholds on the basis of health expenditures per capita and life expectancy at birth and empirically derive these thresholds for 174 countries.

METHODS

We developed a conceptual framework to assess how the adoption and coverage of new interventions with a given incremental cost-effectiveness ratio will affect the rate of increase of health expenditures per capita and life expectancy at the population level. The cost-effectiveness threshold can be derived so that the effect of new interventions on the evolution of life expectancy and health expenditure per capita is set within predefined goals. To provide guidance on cost-effectiveness thresholds and secular trends for 174 countries, we projected country-level health expenditure per capita and life expectancy increases by income level based on World Bank data for the period 2010-19.

FINDINGS

Cost-effectiveness thresholds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ranged between US$87 (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and $95 958 (USA) and were less than 0·5 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 96% of low-income countries, 76% of lower-middle-income countries, 31% of upper-middle-income countries, and 26% of high-income countries. Cost-effectiveness thresholds per QALY were less than 1 GDP per capita in 168 (97%) of the 174 countries. Cost-effectiveness thresholds per life-year ranged between $78 and $80 529 and between 0·12 and 1·24 GDP per capita, and were less than 1 GDP per capita in 171 (98%) countries.

INTERPRETATION

This approach, based on widely available data, can provide a useful reference for countries using economic evaluations to inform resource-allocation decisions and can enrich international efforts to estimate cost-effectiveness thresholds. Our results show lower thresholds than those currently in use in many countries.

FUNDING

Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy (IECS).

Modelled Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Childhood Obesity Interventions: A Demonstration

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate how distributional cost-effectiveness analyses of childhood obesity interventions could be conducted and presented for decision makers.

METHODS

We conducted modelled distributional cost-effectiveness analyses of three obesity interventions in children: an infant sleep intervention (POI-Sleep), a combined infant sleep, food, activity and breastfeeding intervention (POI-Combo) and a clinician-led treatment for primary school-aged children with overweight and obesity (High Five for Kids). For each intervention, costs and socioeconomic position (SEP)-specific effect sizes were applied to an Australian child cohort (n = 4898). Using a purpose-built microsimulation model we simulated SEP-specific body mass index (BMI) trajectories, healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from age 4 to 17 years for control and intervention cohorts. We examined the distribution of each health outcome across SEP and determined the net health benefit and equity impact accounting for opportunity costs and uncertainty due to individual-level heterogeneity. Finally, we conducted scenario analyses to test the effect of assumptions about health system marginal productivity, the distribution of opportunity costs and SEP-specific effect sizes. The results of the primary analyses, uncertainty analyses and scenario analyses were presented on an efficiency-equity impact plane.

RESULTS

Accounting for uncertainty, POI-Sleep and High Five for Kids were found to be 'win-win' interventions, with a 67% and 100% probability, respectively, of generating a net health benefit and positive equity impact compared with control. POI-Combo was found to be a 'lose-lose' intervention, with a 91% probability of producing a net health loss and a negative equity impact compared with control. Scenario analyses indicated that SEP-specific effect sizes were highly influential on equity impact estimates for POI-Combo and High Five for Kids, while health system marginal productivity and opportunity cost distribution assumptions primarily influenced the net health benefit and equity impact of POI-Combo.

CONCLUSIONS

These analyses demonstrated that distributional cost-effectiveness analyses using a fit-for-purpose model are appropriate for differentiating and communicating the efficiency and equity impacts of childhood obesity interventions.

Hybrid cardiac telerehabilitation for coronary artery disease in Australia: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Traditional cardiac rehabilitation programs are centre-based and clinically supervised, with their safety and effectiveness well established. Notwithstanding the established benefits, cardiac rehabilitation remains underutilised. A possible alternative would be a hybrid approach where both centre-based and tele-based methods are combined to deliver cardiac rehabilitation to eligible patients. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term cost-effectiveness of a hybrid cardiac telerehabilitation and if it should be recommended to be implemented in the Australian context.

METHODS

Following a comprehensive literature search, we chose the Telerehab III trial intervention that investigated the effectiveness of a long-term hybrid cardiac telerehabilitation program. We developed a decision analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the Telerehab III trial using a Markov process. The model included stable cardiac disease and hospitalisation health states and simulations were run using one-month cycles over a five-year time horizon. The threshold for cost-effectiveness was set at $AU 28,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). For the base analysis, we assumed that 80% completed the programme. We tested the robustness of the results using probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses.

RESULTS

Telerehab III intervention was more effective but more costly and was not cost-effective, at a threshold of $28,000 per QALY. For every 1,000 patients who undergo cardiac rehabilitation, employing the telerehabilitation intervention would cost $650,000 more, and 5.7 QALYs would be gained, over five years, compared to current practice. Under probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the intervention was cost-effective in only 18% of simulations. Similarly, if the intervention compliance was increased to 90%, it was still unlikely to be cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Hybrid cardiac telerehabilitation is highly unlikely to be cost-effective compared to the current practice in Australia. Exploration of alternative models of delivering cardiac telerehabilitation is still required. The results presented in this study are useful for policymakers wanting to make informed decisions about investment in hybrid cardiac telerehabilitation programs.

The Broader Opportunity Costs in the Broader Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Framework

BACKGROUND

The traditional cost-effectiveness analysis framework usually takes a healthcare system perspective, where the aim is to maximise population health from a fixed budget allocated to healthcare. Extensions to this framework have been suggested, including: (i) incorporating impacts that fall outside the healthcare sector; (ii) accounting for outcomes beyond health; and (iii) assessing equity considerations. Several alternatives have been proposed that serve these purposes, for example, the extended "impact inventory", the "beyond-the-QALY" approach and the distributional cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to develop a comprehensive framework that incorporates into the cost-effectiveness analysis framework some of its most advocated extensions and provides a means of arriving at a unidimensional cost-effectiveness analysis result measure.

METHODS

Building on previous work, I proposed a framework that explicitly incorporates the full extent of the opportunity costs that arise when new dimensions and distributional concerns are included in cost-effectiveness analyses. A hypothetical example is provided as a way of illustration.

RESULTS

Operationalising the proposed framework requires system-wide representative values and/or robust estimates concerning: (i) selecting dimensions; (ii) measuring opportunity costs associated with each dimension; (iii) quantifying equity weights and percentages of beneficiaries and losers meeting equity considerations; and (iv) attaching monetary values to dimensions measured using a non-monetary metric.

CONCLUSIONS

Extending the cost-effectiveness analysis framework entails extending the measurement of the opportunity costs of funding decisions. This implies populating an ambitious puzzle that in some cases poses fundamental conceptual and empirical questions. Potential routes of further research that might facilitate such undertaking are proposed.

Cost-effectiveness of Interventions to Increase Utilization of Kidneys From Deceased Donors With Primary Brain Malignancy in an Australian Setting

Kidneys from potential deceased donors with brain cancer are often foregone due to concerns of cancer transmission risk to recipients. There may be uncertainty around donors' medical history and their absolute transmission risk or risk-averse decision-making among clinicians. However, brain cancer transmissions are rare, and prolonging waiting time for recipients is harmful.

Methods

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of increasing utilization of potential deceased donors with brain cancer using a Markov model simulation of 1500 patients waitlisted for a kidney transplant, based on linked transplant registry data and with a payer perspective (Australian government). We estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for three interventions: decision support for clinicians in assessing donor risk, improved cancer classification accuracy with real-time data-linkage to hospital records and cancer registries, and increased risk tolerance to allow intermediate-risk donors (up to 6.4% potential transmission risk).

Results

Compared with current practice, decision support provided 0.3% more donors with an average transmission risk of 2%. Real-time data-linkage provided 0.6% more donors (1.1% average transmission risk) and increasing risk tolerance (accepting intermediate-risk 6.4%) provided 2.1% more donors (4.9% average transmission risk). Interventions were dominant (improved QALYs and saved costs) in 78%, 80%, and 87% of simulations, respectively. The largest benefit was from increasing risk tolerance (mean +18.6 QALYs and AU$2.2 million [US$1.6 million] cost-savings).

Conclusions

Despite the additional risk of cancer transmission, accepting intermediate-risk donors with brain cancer is likely to increase the number of donor kidneys available for transplant, improve patient outcomes, and reduce overall healthcare expenditure.

Lost Therapeutic Benefit of Delayed Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Control in Statin-Treated Patients and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Lipid-Lowering Intensification

OBJECTIVES

Attainment of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) therapeutic goals in statin-treated patients remains suboptimal. We quantified the health economic impact of delayed lipid-lowering intensification from an Australian healthcare and societal perspective.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov cohort model (n = 1000) estimating the impact on coronary heart disease (CHD) of intensifying lipid-lowering treatment in statin-treated patients with uncontrolled LDL-C, at moderate to high risk of CHD with no delay or after a 5-year delay, compared with standard of care (no intensification), starting at age 40 years. Intensification was tested with high-intensity statins or statins + ezetimibe. LDL-C levels were extracted from a primary care cohort. CHD risk was estimated using the pooled cohort equation. The effect of cumulative exposure to LDL-C on CHD risk was derived from Mendelian randomization data. Outcomes included CHD events, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), healthcare and productivity costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). All outcomes were discounted annually by 5%.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime horizon, compared with standard of care, achieving LDL-C control with no delay with high-intensity statins prevented 29 CHD events and yielded 30 extra QALYs (ICERs AU$13 205/QALY) versus 22 CHD events and 16 QALYs (ICER AU$20 270/QALY) with a 5-year delay. For statins + ezetimibe, no delay prevented 53 CHD events and gave 45 extra QALYs (ICER AU$37 271/QALY) versus 40 CHD events and 29 QALYs (ICER of AU$44 218/QALY) after a 5-year delay.

CONCLUSIONS

Delaying attainment of LDL-C goals translates into lost therapeutic benefit and a waste of resources. Urgent policies are needed to improve LDL-C goal attainment in statin-treated patients.

Projecting the incidence and costs of major cardiovascular and kidney complications of type 2 diabetes with widespread SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use: a cost-effectiveness analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Whether sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) are cost-effective based solely on their cardiovascular and kidney benefits is unknown. We projected the health and economic outcomes due to myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among people with type 2 diabetes, with and without CVD, under scenarios of widespread use of these drugs.

METHODS

We designed a microsimulation model using real-world data that captured CVD and ESKD morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2040. The populations and transition probabilities were derived by linking the Australian Diabetes Registry (1.1 million people with type 2 diabetes) to hospital admissions databases, the National Death Index and the ESKD Registry using data from 2010 to 2019. We modelled four interventions: increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the total population with type 2 diabetes, and increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the secondary prevention population (i.e. people with type 2 diabetes and prior CVD). All interventions were compared with current use of SGLT2is (20% of the total population) and GLP-1 RAs (5% of the total population). Outcomes of interest included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs (from the Australian public healthcare perspective) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We applied 5% annual discounting for health economic outcomes. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at AU$28,000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

The numbers of QALYs gained from 2020 to 2040 with increased SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use in the total population (n=1.1 million in 2020; n=1.5 million in 2040) were 176,446 and 200,932, respectively, compared with current use. Net cost differences were AU$4.2 billion for SGLT2is and AU$20.2 billion for GLP-1 RAs, and the ICERs were AU$23,717 and AU$100,705 per QALY gained, respectively. In the secondary prevention population, the ICERs were AU$8878 for SGLT2is and AU$79,742 for GLP-1 RAs.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

At current prices, use of SGLT2is, but not GLP-1 RAs, would be cost-effective when considering only their cardiovascular and kidney disease benefits for people with type 2 diabetes.

The cost-effectiveness of coronary calcium score-guided statin therapy initiation for Australians with family histories of premature coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES

To compare the cost-effectiveness of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score-guided statin therapy criteria and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines (10-year pooled cohort equation [PCE] risk ≥ 7.5%) with selection according to Australian guidelines (5-year absolute cardiovascular disease risk [ACVDR] ≥ 10%), for people with family histories of premature coronary artery disease.

STUDY DESIGN, SETTING

Markov microsimulation state transition model based on data from the Coronary Artery calcium score: Use to Guide management of Hereditary Coronary Artery Disease (CAUGHT-CAD) trial and transition probabilities derived from published statin prescribing and adherence outcomes and clinical data.

PARTICIPANTS

1083 people with family histories of premature coronary artery disease but no symptomatic cardiovascular disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative cost-effectiveness over fifteen years, from the perspective of the Australian health care system, compared with usual care (Australian guidelines), assessed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), with a notional willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

Applying the Australian guidelines, 77 people were eligible for statin therapy (7.1%); with ACVDR 5-year risk ≥ 2% and CAC score > 0, 496 people (46%); with ACVDR 5-year risk ≥ 2% and CAC score ≥ 100, 155 people (14%); and with the ACC/AHA guidelines, 256 people (24%). The ICERs for CAC-guided selection were $33 108 (CAC ≥ 100) and $53 028 per QALY gained (CAC > 0); the ACC/AHA guidelines approach (ICER, $909 241 per QALY gained) was not cost-effective. CAC score-guided selection (CAC ≥ 100) was cost-effective for people with 5-year ACVDR of at least 5%.

CONCLUSION

Expanding the number of people at low to intermediate CVD risk eligible for statin therapy should selectively target people with subclinical atherosclerosis identified by CAC screening. This approach can be more cost-effective than simply lowering treatment eligibility thresholds.

Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis of an Ambient Intelligent Geriatric Management (AmbIGeM) System Compared to Usual Care to Prevent Falls in Older People in Hospitals

BACKGROUND

The Ambient Intelligent Geriatric Management (AmbIGeM) system combines wearable sensors with artificial intelligence to trigger alerts to hospital staff before a fall. A clinical trial found no effect across a heterogenous population, but reported a reduction in the injurious falls rate in a post hoc analysis of patients on Geriatric Evaluation Management Unit (GEMU) wards. Cost-effectiveness and Value of Information (VoI) analyses of the AmbIGeM system in GEMU wards was undertaken.

METHODS

An Australian health-care system perspective and 5-year time horizon were used for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Implementation costs, inpatient costs and falls data were collected. Injurious falls were defined as causing bruising, laceration, fracture, loss of consciousness, or if the patient reported persistent pain. To compare costs and outcomes, generalised linear regression models were used to adjust for baseline differences between the intervention and usual care groups. Bootstrapping was used to represent uncertainty. For the VoI analysis, 10,000 different sample sizes with randomly sampled values ranging from 1 to 50,000 were tested to estimate the optimal sample size of a new trial that maximised the Expected Net Benefits of Sampling.

RESULTS

An adjusted 0.036 fewer injurious falls (adjusted rate ratio of 0.56) and AUD$4554 lower costs were seen in the intervention group. However, uncertainty that the intervention is cost effective for the prevention of an injurious fall was present at all monetary values of this effectiveness outcome. A new trial with a sample of 4376 patients was estimated to maximise the Expected Net Benefit of Sampling, generating a net benefit of AUD$186,632 at a benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.1.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefits to cost ratio suggests that a new trial of the AmbIGeM system in GEMU wards may not be high-value compared to other potential trials, and that the system should be implemented. However, a broader analysis of options for preventing falls in GEMU is required to fully inform decision making.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN 12617000981325).

The impact of different types of NHS expenditure on health: Marginal cost per QALY estimates for England for 2016/17

English data from 2003 to 2012 suggests that it costs the NHS £10,000 to generate an additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY).  This estimate relates to all NHS expenditure and no attempt was made to explore possible heterogeneity within this total.  Different types of expenditure - such as secondary care, primary care and specialized commissioning - may have different productivities and estimates of these may help policymakers decide where additional investment is most beneficial.  We use the two-stage least squares estimator and data for 2016 to explore the mortality response to three types of healthcare expenditure.  Three specifications are estimated for each type of expenditure: backward selection and regularized regression are used to identify parsimonious specifications, and a full specification with all covariates is also estimated.  The regression results are combined with information about survival and morbidity disease burden to calculate the marginal cost per QALY for each type of expenditure: the most conservative results suggest that this is about £8,000 for locally (CCG) commissioned services, while estimates for specialized commissioning and primary care are more uncertain.  When this heterogeneity is taken into account, the estimated marginal cost per QALY for all NHS expenditure increases slightly, from about £6,000 to £7,000.  Our results suggest that additional investment is likely to be most productive in primary care and in locally commissioned services.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Adjunctive Lifestyle Interventions for the Management of Cancer: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

There is a paucity of papers synthesizing the cost-effectiveness (CE) of lifestyle interventions to support cancer patients, and the synthesis papers available have used analytic methods that do not permit easy comparison between studies. We therefore evaluated the CE of adjunctive lifestyle interventions compared with usual care.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of Scopus, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library databases was conducted from database inception until June 2021. Eligible studies were economic evaluations from randomised controlled trials or modelled economic evaluations that recruited subjects with a confirmed diagnosis of cancer and were allocated to a lifestyle intervention as an adjunct or supportive treatment, or usual care. Studies were excluded if there was no cost-effectiveness analysis or if costs were identified but not related back to measures of effectiveness. CE of the included interventions was recalculated, adjusting for key differences (with respect to absolute resource costs and timing) between the broad range of study settings and a common 'target' setting. All CE data were converted into incremental net monetary benefit using a common cost-effectiveness threshold to facilitate comparison. The quality of the studies was evaluated for risk of bias using the ECOBIAS check list.

RESULTS

Nine studies were included in our review. Seven studies investigated the benefits of physical exercise in combination with cancer treatment and two studies investigated the combination of exercise and psychosocial counselling alongside cancer treatment. Six studies with an exercise intervention reported larger quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains compared with usual care and when cost per QALY gained was considered, three of the interventions were cost effective. One of the two interventions combining exercise with psychosocial counselling was cost effective. All studies were considered of good quality but all had some limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence to support the cost effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in patients with cancer is mixed with four of the nine interventions found to be cost effective and two remaining cost effective when uncertainty was taken into account. Sensitivity analysis showed the influence of the CE threshold on the results, highlighting the importance of selecting a CE threshold that is appropriate to the setting.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Registration Number: CRD42020185376.

Is the cost-effectiveness of an early-childhood sleep intervention to prevent obesity affected by socioeconomic position?

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine whether the cost-effectiveness of an infant sleep intervention from the Prevention of Overweight in Infancy (POI) trial was influenced by socioeconomic position (SEP).

METHODS

An SEP-specific economic evaluation of the sleep intervention was conducted. SEP-specific intervention costs and effects at age 5 years, derived from the trial data, were applied to a representative cohort of 4,898 4- to 5-year-old Australian children. Quality-adjusted life years and health care costs were simulated until age 17 years using a purpose-built SEP-specific model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and acceptability curves were derived for each SEP group.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, in Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year gained, were smaller in the low- ($23,010) and mid-SEP ($18,206) groups compared with the high-SEP group ($31,981). The probability that the intervention was cost-effective was very high in the low- and mid-SEP groups (92%-100%) and moderately high in the high-SEP group (79%).

CONCLUSIONS

An infant sleep intervention is more cost-effective in low- and mid-SEP groups compared with high-SEP groups. Targeting this intervention to low-SEP groups would not require trade-offs between efficiency and equity.

Cost-effectiveness of guideline-based care provision for patients with diabetes-related foot ulcers: A modelled analysis using discrete event simulation

AIMS

The provision of guideline-based care for patients with diabetes-related foot ulcers (DFU) in clinical practice is suboptimal. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of higher rates of guideline-based care, compared with current practice.

METHODS

The costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with current practice (30% of patients receiving guideline-based care) were compared with seven hypothetical scenarios with increasing proportion of guideline-based care (40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% and 100%). Comparisons were made using discrete event simulations reflecting the natural history of DFU over a 3-year time horizon from the Australian healthcare perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for each scenario and compared to a willingness-to-pay of AUD 28,000 per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to incorporate joint parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

All seven scenarios with higher rates of guideline-based care were likely cheaper and more effective than current practice. Increased proportions compared with current practice resulted in between AUD 0.28 and 1.84 million in cost savings and 11-56 additional QALYs per 1000 patients. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that the finding is robust to parameter uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher proportions of patients receiving guideline-based care are less costly and improve patient outcomes. Strategies to increase the proportion of patients receiving guideline-based care are warranted.

Informing a cost-effectiveness threshold for Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 aims to reform health care across the Kingdom, with health technology assessment being adopted as one tool promising to improve the efficiency with which resources are used. An understanding of the opportunity costs of reimbursement decisions is key to fulfilling this promise and can be used to inform a cost-effectiveness threshold. This paper is the first to provide a range of estimates of this using existing evidence extrapolated to the context of Saudi Arabia.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We use four approaches to estimate the marginal cost per unit of health produced by the healthcare system; drawing from existing evidence provided by a cross-country analysis, two alternative estimates from the UK context, and based on extrapolating a UK estimate using evidence on the income elasticity of the value of health. Consequences of estimation error are explored.

RESULTS

Based on the four approaches, we find a range of SAR 42,046 per QALY gained (48% of GDP per capita) to SAR 215,120 per QALY gained (246% of GDP per capita). Calculated potential central estimates from the average of estimated health gains based on each source gives a range of SAR 50,000-75,000. The results are in line with estimates from the emerging literature from across the world.

CONCLUSION

A cost-effectiveness threshold reflecting health opportunity costs can aid decision-making. Applying a cost-effectiveness threshold based on the range SAR 50,000 to 75,000 per QALY gained would ensure that resource allocation decisions in healthcare can in be informed in a way that accounts for health opportunity costs.

LIMITATIONS

A limitation is that it is not based on a within-country study for Saudi Arabia, which represents a promising line of future work.

Economic evaluation of applying the Canadian Syncope Risk Score in an Australian emergency department

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the Canadian Syncope Risk Score (CSRS) in syncope patients presenting to the ED from an economic perspective, using very-low and low-risk patients (CSRS -3 to 0) as a threshold for avoiding hospital admissions.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model, specifically a decision-tree, was developed to evaluate application of the CSRS. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients was modelled based on characteristics and outcome of patients enrolled in a clinical validation study performed alongside this evaluation. Several analytic based approaches were used to handle model outputs and uncertainties.

RESULTS

For a cohort of 1000 patients, applying the CSRS was associated with 169 less inpatient admissions from the ED, when compared to usual care. There was also a cost-saving of $8255 per admitted patient, when the CSRS was applied, compared to usual care. Adopting the CSRS was the optimal approach in all scenario analyses and was robust to changes in model parameters. More than three-quarters (78.6%) of all model simulations showed that applying the CSRS is a cost-saving approach to managing syncope. There was high confidence in all results, with the approach using the CSRS reducing the costs and number of syncope-related hospital admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to usual care, applying the CSRS appeared as a cost-effective strategy. This new evidence will help decision-makers choose cost-effective approaches for the management of patients presenting to the ED with syncope, as they search for efficient ways to maximise health gain from a finite budget.

The health cost of reducing hospital bed capacity

In the past two decades, most high-income countries have reduced their hospital bed capacity. This could be a sign of increased efficiency but could also reflect a degradation in quality of care. In this paper, we use repeated cross-sections on mortality and staffed hospital beds per capita in all 21 Swedish regions to estimate the potential death toll from reduced bed capacity. Between 2001 and 2019, mortality and beds decreased across all regions, but regions making smaller bed reductions experienced on average greater decreases in mortality, equivalent to one less death per three beds retained. This estimate is stable to a wide range of specifications and to adjustment for potential confounders, which supports a causal interpretation. Our results imply that by providing one more bed, Swedish health care could produce about three quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost of SEK 400,000 (∼US$40,000) per QALY. These findings could be informative about the marginal productivity of health care and support the credibility of empirical work attempting to estimate the opportunity cost of funding new healthcare interventions subject to a constrained budget.

Risk-based decision-making related to preprocedural coronavirus disease 2019 testing in the setting of GI endoscopy: management of risks, evidence, and behavioral health economics

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Controversies exist regarding the benefits and most appropriate approach for preprocedural coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing (eg, rapid antigen test, polymerase chain reaction, or real-time polymerase chain reaction) for outpatients undergoing diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, such as GI endoscopy, to prevent COVID-19 infections among staff. Guidelines for protecting healthcare workers (HCWs) from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection from outpatient procedures varies across medical professional organizations. This study provides an evidence-based decision support tool for key decision-makers (eg, clinicians) to respond to COVID-19 transmission risks and reduce the effect of personal biases.

METHODS

A scoping review was used to identify relevant factors influencing COVID-19 transmission risk relevant for GI endoscopy. From 12 relevant publications, 8 factors were applicable: test sensitivity, prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population, age-adjusted SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in the patient cohort, proportion of asymptomatic patients, risk of transmission from asymptomatic carriers, risk reduction by personal protective equipment (PPE), vaccination rates of HCWs, and risk reduction of SAE by vaccination. The probability of a serious adverse event (SAE), such as workplace-acquired infection resulting in HCW death, under various scenarios with preprocedural testing was determined to inform decision-makers of expected costs of reductions in SAEs.

RESULTS

In a setting of high community transmission, without testing and PPE, 117.5 SAEs per million procedures were estimated to occur, and this was reduced to between .079 and 2.35 SAEs per million procedures with the use of PPE and preprocedural testing. When these variables are used and a range of scenarios are tested, the probability of an SAE was low even without testing but was reduced by preprocedural testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Under all scenarios tested, preprocedural testing reduced the SAE risk for HCWs regardless of the SARS-CoV-2 variant. Benefits of preprocedural testing are marginal when community transmission is low (eg, below 10 infections a day per 100,000 population). The proposed decision support tool can assist in developing rational preprocedural testing policies.

Cost-effectiveness of a community-based integrated care model compared with usual care for older adults with complex needs: a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Objective

To assess the cost of implementation, delivery and cost-effectiveness (CE) of a flagship community-based integrated care model (OPEN ARCH) against the usual primary care.

Design

A 9-month stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial.

Setting and participants

Community-dwelling older adults with chronic conditions and complex care needs were recruited from primary care (14 general practices) in Far North Queensland, Australia.

Methods

Costs and outcomes were measured at 3-month windows from the healthcare system and patient’s out-of-pocket perspectives for the analysis. Outcomes included functional status (Functional Independence Measure (FIM)) and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-3L and AQoL-8D). Bayesian CE analysis with 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations was performed using the BCEA package in R (V.3.6.1).

Results

The OPEN ARCH model of care had an average cost of $A1354 per participant. The average age of participants was 81, and 55% of the cohort were men. Within-trial multilevel regression models adjusted for time, general practitioner cluster and baseline confounders showed no significant differences in costs, resource use or effect measures regardless of the analytical perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 10 000 simulations showed that OPEN ARCH could be recommended over usual care for improving functional independence at a willing to pay above $A600 (US$440) per improvement of one point on the FIM Scale and for avoiding or reducing inpatient stay for any willingness-to-pay threshold up to $A50 000 (US$36 500).

Conclusions and implications

OPEN ARCH was associated with a favourable Bayesian CE profile in improving functional status and dependency levels, avoiding or reducing inpatient stay compared with usual primary care in the Australian context.

Trial registration number

ACTRN12617000198325.

Estimating health system opportunity costs: the role of non-linearities and inefficiency

Background

Empirical estimates of health system opportunity costs have been suggested as a basis for the cost-effectiveness threshold to use in Health Technology Assessment. Econometric methods have been used to estimate these in several countries based on data on spending and mortality. This study examines empirical evidence on four issues: non-linearity of the relationship between spending and mortality; the inclusion of outcomes other than mortality; variation in the efficiency with which expenditures generate health outcomes; and the relationship among efficiency, mortality rates and outcome elasticities.

Methods

Quantile Regression is used to examine non-linearities in the relationship between mortality and health expenditures along the mortality distribution. Data Envelopment Analysis extends the approach, using multiple measures of health outcomes to measure efficiency. These are applied to health expenditure data from 151 geographical units (Primary Care Trusts) of the National Health Service in England, across eight different clinical areas (Programme Budget Categories), for 3 fiscal years from 2010/11 to 2012/13.

Results

The results suggest differences in efficiency levels across geographical units and clinical areas as to how health resources generate outcomes, which indicates the capacity to adjust to a decrease in health expenditure without affecting health outcomes. Moreover, efficient units have lower absolute levels of mortality elasticity to health expenditure than inefficient ones.

Conclusions

The policy of adopting thresholds based on estimates of a single system-wide cost-effectiveness threshold assumes a relationship between expenditure and health outcomes that generates an opportunity cost estimate which applies to the whole system. Our evidence of variations in that relationship and therefore in opportunity costs suggests that adopting a single threshold may exacerbate the efficiency and equity concerns that such thresholds are designed to counter. In most health care systems, many decisions about provision are not made centrally. Our analytical approach to understanding variability in opportunity cost can help policy makers target efficiency improvements and set realistic targets for local and clinical area health improvements from increased expenditure.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00391-y.

Disease burden, associated mortality and economic impact of antimicrobial resistant infections in Australia

BACKGROUND

The growing spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is accepted as a threat to humans, animals and the environment. This threat is considered to be both country specific and global, with bacteria resistant to antibiotic treatment geographically dispersed. Despite this, we have very few Australian estimates available that use national surveillance data supplemented with measures of risk, to generate reliable and actionable measures of AMR impact. These data are essential to direct policies and programs and support equitable healthcare resource utilisation. Importantly, such data can lead to implementation of programs to improved morbidity and mortality of patients with a resistant infection.

METHODS

Using data from a previous case-cohort study, we estimated the AMR-associated health and economic impact caused by five hospital-associated AMR pathogens (Enterococcus spp., E. coli, K. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosa and S. aureus) in patients with a bloodstream, urinary tract, or respiratory tract infection in Australia in 2020. We estimated disease burden based on the counterfactual scenario in which all AMR infections were replaced by no infection.We used a population-level simulation model to compute AMR-associated mortality, loss of quality-adjusted life years and costs.

FINDINGS

In 2020, there were 1,031 AMR-associated deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 294, 2,615) from the five resistant hospital-associated infections in Australia. The greatest odds of dying were from respiratory infections (ceftazidime-resistant P. aeruginosa) and bloodstream infections, both resulting in high hospital and premature death costs. MRSA bacteraemia contributed the most to hospital costs (measured as bed-days) as patients with this infection resulted in additional 12,818 (95% UI 7246, 19966) hospital bed-days and cost the hospitals an extra $24,366,741 (95%UI $13,774,548, $37,954,686) per year. However, the cost of premature death from five resistant pathogens was $438,543,052, which was by far greater than the total hospital cost ($71,988,858). We estimate a loss of 27,705 quality-adjusted life years due to the five AMR pathogens.

INTERPRETATION

These are the first Australian estimates of AMR-associated health and economic impact. Country-level estimates of AMR impact are needed to provide local evidence to better inform programs and health policies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with infection. The burden in hospital is likely an underestimate of the impact of AMR due to community-associated infections where data are limited, and the AMR burden is high. This should now be the focus of future study in this area.

FUNDING

TMW was supported by the Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE) (grant number GNT1116530) Fellowship.

Economic evaluation of a Decision Support Tool to guide intensity of mental health care in general practice: the Link-me pragmatic randomised controlled trial

Background

This paper reports on the cost-effectiveness evaluation of Link-me – a digitally supported, systematic approach to triaging care for depression and anxiety in primary care that uses a patient-completed Decision Support Tool (DST).

Methods

The economic evaluation was conducted alongside a parallel, stratified individually randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing prognosis-matched care to usual care at six- and 12-month follow-up. Twenty-three general practices in three Australian Primary Health Networks recruited 1,671 adults (aged 18 – 75 years), predicted by the DST to have minimal/mild or severe depressive or anxiety symptoms in three months. The minimal/mild prognostic group was referred to low intensity services. Participants screened in the severe prognostic group were offered high intensity care navigation, a model of care coordination. The outcome measures included in this evaluation were health sector costs (including development and delivery of the DST, care navigation and other healthcare services used) and societal costs (health sector costs plus lost productivity), psychological distress [Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10)] and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) derived from the EuroQol 5-dimension quality of life questionnaire with Australian general population preference weights applied. Costs were valued in 2018–19 Australian dollars (A$).

Results

Across all participants, the health sector incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of Link-me per point decrease in K10 at six months was estimated at $1,082 (95% CI $391 to $6,204) increasing to $2,371 (95% CI $191 to Dominated) at 12 months. From a societal perspective, the ICER was estimated at $1,257/K10 point decrease (95% CI Dominant to Dominated) at six months, decreasing to $1,217 (95% CI Dominant to Dominated) at 12 months. No significant differences in QALYs were detected between trial arms and the intervention was dominated (less effective, more costly) based on the cost/QALY ICER.

Conclusions

The Link-me approach to stepped mental health care would not be considered cost-effective utilising a cost/QALY outcome metric commonly adopted by health technology assessment agencies. Rather, Link-me showed a trend toward cost-effectiveness by providing improvement in mental health symptoms, measured by the K10, at an additional cost.

Trial registration

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ANZCTRN 12617001333303.

Long-Term Outcome of Multidisciplinary Versus Standard Gastroenterologist Care for Functional Gastrointestinal Disorders: A Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Functional gastrointestinal disorders are common and costly to the healthcare system. In the Multidisciplinary Treatment of Functional Gastrointestinal Disorders study, we demonstrated that multidisciplinary care resulted in superior clinical and cost outcomes, when compared with standard gastroenterologist-only care at end of treatment. In this study we evaluate the longer-term outcomes.

METHODS

In a single-center, pragmatic trial patients with Rome IV criteria-defined functional gastrointestinal disorders were randomized 1:2 to a gastroenterologist-only standard care vs a multidisciplinary clinic comprising gastroenterologists, dietitians, gut hypnotherapists, psychiatrists, and biofeedback physiotherapists. Outcomes in this study were assessed 12 months after the end of treatment. Global symptom improvement was assessed by using a 5-point Likert scale. Symptoms, specific disorder status, psychological state, quality of life, and cost were additional outcomes. A modified intention-to-treat analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Of 188 randomized patients, 143 (46 standard care, 97 multidisciplinary) formed the longer-term modified intention-to-treat analysis. Sixty-two percent of multidisciplinary clinic patients saw allied clinicians. Sixty-five percent (30/46) standard care versus 76% (74/97) multidisciplinary clinic patients achieved global symptom improvement 12 months after end of treatment (P = .17), whereas 20% (9/46) versus 37% (36/97) rated their symptoms as "5/5 much better" (P = .04). A ≥50-point reduction in Irritable Bowel Syndrome Severity Scoring System occurred in 38% versus 66% (P = .02), respectively, for irritable bowel syndrome patients. Anxiety and depression were greater in the standard care than multidisciplinary clinic (12 vs 10, P = .19), and quality of life was lower in standard care than the multidisciplinary clinic (0.75 vs 0.77, P =·.03). An incremental cost-effectivness ratio found that for every additional 3555AUD spent in the multidisciplinary clinic, a further quality-adjusted life year was gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Twelve months after the completion of treatment, integrated multidisciplinary clinical care achieved a greater proportion of patients with improvement of symptoms, psychological state, quality of life, and cost, compared with gastroenterologist-only care.

CLINICAL TRIALS

gov: number NCT03078634.

Supply-Side Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: Questions for Evidence-Based Policy

There is growing interest in cost-effectiveness thresholds as a tool to inform resource allocation decisions in health care. Studies from several countries have sought to estimate health system opportunity costs, which supply-side cost-effectiveness thresholds are intended to represent. In this paper, we consider the role of empirical estimates of supply-side thresholds in policy-making. Recent studies estimate the cost per unit of health based on average displacement or outcome elasticity. We distinguish the types of point estimates reported in empirical work, including marginal productivity, average displacement, and outcome elasticity. Using this classification, we summarise the limitations of current approaches to threshold estimation in terms of theory, methods, and data. We highlight the questions that arise from alternative interpretations of thresholds and provide recommendations to policymakers seeking to use a supply-side threshold where the evidence base is emerging or incomplete. We recommend that: (1) policymakers must clearly define the scope of the application of a threshold, and the theoretical basis for empirical estimates should be consistent with that scope; (2) a process for the assessment of new evidence and for determining changes in the threshold to be applied in policy-making should be created; (3) decision-making processes should retain flexibility in the application of a threshold; and (4) policymakers should provide support for decision-makers relating to the use of thresholds and the implementation of decisions stemming from their application.

An Economic Evaluation of Government-Funded COVID-19 Testing in Australia

OBJECTIVE

Easy and equitable access to testing has been a cornerstone of the public health response to COVID-19. Currently in Australia, testing using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for COVID-19 is free to the user, but government funding for rapid antigen tests (RATs) is limited. We conduct an economic analysis of alternative government policies regarding the funding of COVID-19 testing in Australia.

METHODS

A decision tree model was developed to describe COVID-19 testing pathways for the Australian population over a 1-week period. The model outputs were analysed to estimate R numbers associated with alternative funding policies, which were used to estimate COVID-19 cases over a 6-month time horizon. Healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) effects were applied to new COVID-19 cases. The model was populated using responses to a de novo population survey and published data sources.

RESULTS

Compared with no government-funded COVID-19 testing, government-funded testing is estimated to generate large incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs), up to A$15 billion in the base-case analyses. Government-funded PCR testing and RATs for all is predicted to maximise INMBs in most tested scenarios, though funding RATs for all and not PCR tests has similar INMBs in many scenarios and generates higher benefits to costs ratios.

CONCLUSIONS

Our interpretation of the modelled analysis is that at the time of writing (July 2022), with high vaccination uptake in Australia and few other public health measures in place, Australian governments should consider reducing funding of PCR testing, for example, limiting capacity to essential workers and individuals with known risk factors for serious symptoms, and fund RATs for all.

How Responsive is Mortality to Locally Administered Healthcare Expenditure? Estimates for England for 2014/15

BACKGROUND

Research using local English data from 2003 to 2012 suggests that a 1% increase in healthcare expenditure causes a 0.78% reduction in mortality, and that it costs the NHS £10,000 to generate an additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In 2013, the existing 151 local health authorities (Primary Care Trusts) were abolished and replaced with 212 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). CCGs retained responsibility for secondary care and pharmaceuticals, but responsibility for primary care and specialised commissioning returned to central administrators.

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to extend and apply existing methods to more recent data using a new geography and expenditure base, while improving covariate selection and examining the responsiveness of mortality to expenditure across the mortality distribution.

METHODS

Instrumental variable regression is used to quantify the relationship between mortality and local expenditure. Backward selection and regularised regression are used to identify parsimonious specifications. These results are combined with information about survival and morbidity disease burden to calculate the marginal cost per QALY. Unconditional quantile regression (UQR) is used to examine the response of mortality to expenditure across the mortality distribution.

RESULTS

Backward selection and regularised regression both suggest that the marginal cost per QALY in 2014/15 was about £7000 for locally commissioned services. The UQR results suggest that additional expenditure generates larger health benefits in high-mortality areas and that, if anything, the average size of this heterogeneous response is larger than the response at the mean.

CONCLUSIONS

The new healthcare geography and expenditure base can be used to update estimates of the health opportunity costs associated with additional expenditure. The variation in the mortality response across the mortality distribution suggests that the use of the response at the mean will, if anything, underestimate the health opportunity costs associated with a national policy or nationally mandated guidance on the use of new technologies. The health opportunity costs of such policies are likely to be greater (lower) in areas of higher (lower) mortality, increasing health inequalities.

Improving mental health and social participation outcomes in older adults with depression and anxiety: Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background

Increasing both the frequency and quality of social interactions within treatments for anxiety and depressive disorders in older adults may improve their mental health outcomes and quality of life. This study aims to evaluate the clinical efficacy and cost utility of an enhanced cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) plus social participation program in a sample of older adults with depression and/or anxiety.

Methods

A total of 172 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older with an anxiety and/or depressive disorder will be randomly allocated to either an enhanced CBT plus social participation program (n = 86) or standard CBT (n = 86). Both treatments will be delivered during 12 weekly individual sessions utilising structured manuals and workbooks. Participants will be assessed at pre-treatment, post-treatment, and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome evaluates mean change in clinician-rated diagnostic severity of anxiety and depressive disorders from baseline to post-treatment (primary endpoint) based on a semi-structured diagnostic interview. Secondary outcomes evaluate changes in symptomatology on self-report anxiety and depression measures, as well as changes in social/community participation, social network, and perceived social support, loneliness, quality of life, and use of health services. Economic benefits will be evaluated using a cost-utility analysis to derive the incremental cost utility ratios for the enhanced CBT program.

Discussion

Outcomes from this study will provide support for the establishment of improved psychosocial treatment for older adults with anxiety and/or depression. Study outcomes will also provide health systems with a clear means to reduce the impact of poor emotional health in older age and its associated economic burden. In addition to the empirical validation of a novel treatment, the current study will contribute to the current understanding of the role of social participation in older adult wellbeing.

Trial registration

Prospectively registered on the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ID: ACTRN12619000242123; registered 19^th February 2019) and the ISRCTN registry (ID: ISRCTN78951376; registered 10^th July 2019).