A Geographical Analysis of the African COVID-19 Paradox: Putting the Poverty-as-a-Vaccine Hypothesis to the Test

Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors Associated with the Spatial Distribution of COVID-19 in Africa

Corona is a disease that affects the whole world. Countries with weak economies are specifically more vulnerable. A proper understanding of COVID-19 spreading, identifying the high-risk areas, and discovering factors influencing the spread of the disease are crucial to improving disease control. This study evaluates the geo-statistical distribution of COVID-19 to identify critical areas of Africa using spatial clustering pattern analysis. In addition, the spatial correlation between infected cases and variables such as the unemployment rate, gross domestic product (GDP), population, and vaccination rate is calculated using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis. The hot-spot map showed a statistically significant cluster of high values in southern and northern Africa. Moreover, the outcome of the GWR analysis revealed the GDP and population had the most significant correlation with the spreading of COVID-19, with Local R2 values of (0.01-0.99) and (0-0.89), respectively.

Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in people attending the two main Goma markets in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) officially reports low coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) prevalence. This cross-sectional study, conducted between September and November 2021, assessed the COVID-19 seroprevalence in people attending Goma's two largest markets, Kituku and Virunga. A similar study in a slum of Bukavu overlapped for 1 month using identical methods. COVID-19-unvaccinated participants (n = 796 including 454 vendors and 342 customers, 60% of whom were women) were surveyed. The median age of vendors and customers was 34.2 and 30.1 years, respectively. The crude and adjusted anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence rates were 70.2% (95% CI 66.9-73.4%) and 98.8% (95% CI 94.1-100%), respectively, with no difference between vendors and customers. COVID-19 symptoms reported by survey participants in the previous 6 months were mild or absent in 58.9% and 41.1% of participants with anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, respectively. No COVID-19-seropositive participants reported hospitalisation in the last 6 months. These findings are consistent with those reported in Bukavu. They confirm that SARS-CoV-2 spread without causing severe symptoms in densely populated settlements and markets and suggest that many COVID-19 cases went unreported. Based on these results, the relevance of an untargeted hypothetical vaccination programme in these communities should be questioned.

Investigating the Possible Reasons for the Low Reported Morbidity and Mortality of COVID-19 in African Countries: An Integrative Review

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has impacted the world differentially with the highest mortality and morbidity rate burden in Europe and the USA and the lowest mortality and morbidity burden in Africa. This study aims to investigate the possible reasons why Africa recorded the lowest COVID-19 mortality and morbidity.

METHODS

The following search terms were used PubMed database: ["mortalit*" (tw) OR "morbidit*" (tw) AND "COVID-19" (tw) AND "Africa" (tw)]. Studies that discuss a factor for the low COVID-19 burden in Africa have a defined methodology, discuss its research question and mention its limitations are selected for review. Data from the final articles were extracted using a data collection tool.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies were used in this integrative review. Results were grouped into 10 themes, which are younger African population, lower health capacity, weather, vaccines and drugs, effective pandemic response, lower population density and mobility, African socioeconomic status, lower prevalence of comorbidities, genetic difference and previous infection exposure. The low COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in Africa is largely a result of a combined effect of the younger African population and underreporting of COVID-19 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need to strengthen the health capacities of African countries. Moreover, African countries that have other health problem priorities may use a tailored approach to vaccinating the elderly. More definitive studies are needed to know the role of BCG vaccination, weather, genetic makeup and prior infection exposure in the differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country-level predictors of COVID-19 mortality

This study aimed to identify country-level predictors of COVID-19 mortality, after controlling for diverse potential factors, and utilizing current worldwide mortality data. COVID-19 deaths, as well as geographic, demographic, socioeconomic, healthcare, population health, and pandemic-related variables, were obtained for 152 countries. Continuous variables were examined with Spearman's correlation, categorical variables with ANOVA or Welch's Heteroscedastic F Test, and country-level independent predictors of COVID-19 mortality identified by weighted generalized additive models. This study identified independent mortality predictors in six limited models, comprising groups of related variables. However, in the full model, only WHO region, percent of population ≥ 65 years, Corruption Perception Index, hospital beds/100,000 population, and COVID-19 cases/100,000 population were predictive of mortality, with model accounting for 80.7% of variance. These findings suggest areas for focused intervention in the event of similar future public health emergencies, including prioritization of the elderly, optimizing healthcare capacity, and improving deficient health sector-related governance.

High seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the capital of Chad

Background. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chad has had 7,417 confirmed cases and 193 deaths, one of the lowest in Africa. Objective. This study assessed SARS-CoV-2 immunity in N’Djamena. Methods. In August-October 2021, eleven N’Djamena hospitals collected outpatient data and samples. IgG antibodies against SARSCoV- 2 nucleocapsid protein were identified using ELISA. “Bambino Gesù” Laboratory, Rome, Italy, performed external quality control with chemiluminescence assay. Results. 25-34-year-old (35.2%) made up the largest age group at 31.9 12.6 years. 56.4% were women, 1.3 women/men. The 7th district had 22.5% and the 1st 22.3%. Housewives and students dominated. Overall seroprevalence was 69.5% (95% CI: 67.7-71.3), females 68.2% (65.8-70.5) and males 71.2% (68.6-73.8). >44-year-old had 73.9% seroprevalence. Under-15s were 57.4% positive. Housewives (70.9%), civil servants (71.5%), and health workers (9.7%) had the highest antibody positivity. N’Djamena’s 9th district had 73.1% optimism and the 3rd district had 52.5%. Seroprevalences were highest at Good Samaritan Hospital (75.4%) and National General Referral Hospital (74.7%). Conclusion. Our findings indicate a high circulation of SARSCoV- 2 in N’Djamena, despite low mortality and morbidity after the first two COVID-19 pandemic waves. This high seroprevalence must be considered in Chad’s vaccine policy.

Epidemiological characteristics and quarantine assessment of imported international COVID-19 cases, March to December 2020, Chengdu, China

International flights have accelerated the global spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Determination of the optimal quarantine period for international travelers is crucial to prevent the local spread caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We performed a retrospective epidemiological study using 491 imported COVID-19 cases in Chengdu, China, to describe the characteristic of the cases and estimate the time from arrival to confirmation for international travelers using nonparametric survival methods. Among the 491 imported COVID-19 cases, 194 (39.5%) were asymptomatic infections. The mean age was 35.6 years (SD = 12.1 years) and 83.3% were men. The majority (74.1%) were screened positive for SARS-CoV-2, conducted by Chengdu Customs District, the People's Republic of China. Asymptomatic cases were younger than presymptomatic or symptomatic cases (P < 0.01). The daily number of imported COVID-19 cases displayed jagged changes. 95% of COVID-19 cases were confirmed by PT-PCR within 14 days (95% CI 13-15) after arriving in Chengdu. A 14-day quarantine measure can ensure non-infection among international travelers with a 95% probability. Policymakers may consider an extension of the quarantine period to minimize the negative consequences of the COVID-19 confinement and prevent the international spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, the government should consider the balance between COVID-19 and socioeconomic development, which may cause more serious social and health crises.

Private sector engagement in the COVID-19 response: experiences and lessons from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda

BACKGROUND

Private entities play a major role in health globally. However, their contribution has not been fully optimized to strengthen delivery of public health services. The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems and precipitated coalitions between public and private sectors to address critical gaps in the response. We conducted a study to document the public and private sector partnerships and engagements to inform current and future responses to public health emergencies.

METHODS

This was a multi-country cross-sectional study conducted in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda between November 2020 and March 2021 to assess responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a scoping literature review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with private and public health sector stakeholders. The literature reviewed included COVID-19 country guidelines and response plans, program reports and peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed publications. KIIs elicited information on country approaches and response strategies specifically the engagement of the private sector in any of the strategic response operations.

RESULTS

Across the 4 countries, private sector strengthened laboratory systems, COVID-19 case management, risk communication and health service continuity. In the DRC and Nigeria, private entities supported contact tracing and surveillance activities. Across the 4 countries, the private sector supported expansion of access to COVID-19 testing services through establishing partnerships with the public health sector albeit at unregulated fees. In Senegal and Uganda, governments established partnerships with private sector to manufacture COVID-19 rapid diagnostic tests. The private sector also contributed to treatment and management of COVID-19 cases. In addition, private entities provided personal protective equipment, conducted risk communication to promote adherence to safety procedures and health promotion for health service continuity. However, there were concerns related to reporting, quality and cost of services, calling for quality and price regulation in the provision of services.

CONCLUSIONS

The private sector contributed to the COVID-19 response through engagement in COVID-19 surveillance and testing, management of COVID-19 cases, and health promotion to maintain health access. There is a need to develop regulatory frameworks for sustainable public-private engagements including regulation of pricing, quality assurance and alignment with national plans and priorities during response to epidemics.

The challenges of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing in low-middle income countries and possible cost-effective measures in resource-limited settings

Diagnostic testing for the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection remains a challenge around the world, especially in low-middle-income countries (LMICs) with poor socio-economic backgrounds. From the beginning of the pandemic in December 2019 to August 2021, a total of approximately 3.4 billion tests were performed globally. The majority of these tests were restricted to high income countries. Reagents for diagnostic testing became a premium, LMICs either cannot afford or find manufacturers unwilling to supply them with expensive analytical reagents and equipment. From March to December 2020 obtaining testing kits for SARS-CoV-2 testing was a challenge. As the number of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases increases globally, large-scale testing still remains a challenge in LMICs. The aim of this review paper is to compare the total number and frequencies of SARS-CoV-2 testing in LMICs and high-income countries (HICs) using publicly available data from Worldometer COVID-19, as well as discussing possible interventions and cost-effective measures to increase testing capability in LMICs. In summary, HICs conducted more SARS-CoV-2 testing (USA: 192%, Australia: 146%, Switzerland: 124% and Canada: 113%) compared to middle-income countries (MICs) (Vietnam: 43%, South Africa: 29%, Brazil: 27% and Venezuela: 12%) and low-income countries (LICs) (Bangladesh: 6%, Uganda: 4% and Nigeria: 1%). Some of the cost-effective solutions to counteract the aforementioned problems includes using saliva instead of oropharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swabs, sample pooling, and testing high-priority groups to increase the number of mass testing in LMICs.

Place-based modelling of social vulnerability to COVID-19 in Nigeria

COVID-19, within a short period of time, grew into a pandemic. The timely identification of places and populations at great risk of COVID-19 infection would aid disease control. In Nigeria, where a variety of recommended and adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions seem to have limited effectiveness, the number of cases is still increasing. To this end, this paper computed a social vulnerability to COVID-19 index (SoVI) in Nigeria within the local government area (LGA) framework with a view to revealing vulnerable places and populations. The study relied on several data sources and factor analysis for the development of the index. SoVI values ranged from 2.3 (least vulnerable) to 6.8 (most vulnerable). Three percent of the 774 LGAs were extremely vulnerable while 2% of these LGAs were least vulnerable to COVID-19. The predictive power of the index was confirmed to be strong (r = 0.812). Hopefully, the visual representation of place-based vulnerability to COVID-19 index should guide and direct the relevant authorities in the containment of further spread and vaccination coverage.

Is Meteorology a Factor to COVID-19 Spread in a Tropical Climate?

It was speculated that fewer COVID-19 infections may emerge in tropical countries due to their hot climate, but India emerged as one of the leading hotspot. There is no concrete answer on the influence of meteorological parameters on COVID-19 even after more than a year of outbreak. The present study examines the impacts of Meteorological parameters during the summer and monsoon season of 2020, in different Indian mega cities having distinct climate and geography. The results indicate the sign of association, but it varies from one climatic zone to another. The principal component analysis revealed that humidity is strongly correlated with COVID-19 infections in hillocky city Pune (R = 0.70), dry Delhi (R = 0.50) and coastal Mumbai (R = 0.46), but comparatively weak correlation is found in arid climatic city of Ahmedabad. As against the expectations, no discernible correlation is found with temperature in any of the cities. As the virus in 2020 in India largely travelled with droplets, the association with absolute humidity in the dry regions has serious implications. Clarity in understanding the impact of seasonality will greatly help epidemiological research and in making strategies to control the pandemic in India and other tropical countries around the world.