Recruitment variability and the dynamics of exploited marine populations

Trawl Fishing Fleet Operations Used to Illustrate the Life Cycle of the Southern Brown Shrimp: Insights to Management and Sustainable Fisheries

The purpose of this study was to better understand the life cycle of brown shrimp along the Amazon Continental Shelf by using spatial and temporal trawl fleet activities. A total of 208,121 specimens and 1281 trawls were studied throughout the course of 13 years of shrimp size composition. To investigate differences in length composition between fishing grounds, months, and depth, a PERMANOVA analysis was employed. A geographic information system was developed for environmental characterisation and spatiotemporal trawl fleet distribution. Our findings show that the industrial trawl shrimp fleet has a close relationship with shrimp biological characteristics, following shrimp migration patterns in different months, locations, and depths during different stages of their life cycle, and that this fleet acts on two-yearly cohorts. The management measures of limiting effort (number of vessels) appear enough to avoid overcapitalisation, but the closed period and a proposed no-take fishing zone appear insufficient for what was originally proposed. Ecosystem-based management strategies should be addressed immediately because they would be far more effective than traditional fishery-based management measures in promoting sustainable fishing.

Reef larval recruitment in response to seascape dynamics in the SW Atlantic

Advances in satellite observation have improved our capacity to track changes in the ocean with numerous ecological and conservation applications, which are yet under-explored for coastal ecology. In this study, we assessed the spatio-temporal dynamics in invertebrate larval recruitment and the Seascape Pelagic Habitat Classification, a satellite remote-sensing product developed by the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) and delivered by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to monitor biodiversity globally. Our ultimate goal was to identify and predict changes in coastal benthic assemblages at tropical reefs in the SW Atlantic based on integrated pelagic conditions, testing the use of MBON Seascape categorization. Our results revealed that the pelagic Seascapes correlated with monthly and seasonal variations in recruitment rates and assemblage composition. Recruitment was strongly influenced by subtropical Seascapes and was reduced by the presence of warm waters with high-nutrient contents and phytoplankton blooms, which are likely to affect reef communities in the long term. Recruitment modeling indicates that Seascapes may be more efficient than sea surface temperature in predicting benthic larval dynamics. Based on historical Seascape patterns, we identified seven events that may have impacted benthic recruitment in this region during the last decades. These findings provide new insights into the application of novel satellite remote-sensing Seascape categorizations in benthic ecology and evidence how reef larval supply in the SW Atlantic could be impacted by recent and future ocean changes.

Stage-specific influence of temperature on the growth rate of Japanese Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) in early life

Since 1850, each successive decade has been warmer than any preceding one. Warming could make a major contribution to the growth of fish larvae. To evaluate the influence of water temperature on the growth of larvae who spawned in later spring and early summer, we selected Scomberomorus niphonius, which has important ecological and economic value as a sample fish species. We conducted high-resolution spatiotemporal surveys during the 2015 spawning season at an important spawning ground in China. We found that the temperature required for larval survival was stricter than that for spawning. Within the appropriate temperature range, a rapid rise in water temperature was favourable for larval hatching, but S. niphonius hatched at relatively low temperature exhibited a faster growth rate in the yolk-sac and pre-flexion stages. The accumulated temperature and hatching temperature significantly affected the growth rate of S. niphonius larvae. The model that considered developmental stages provided a better explanation of the data than the model that only considered the temperature effect. The model improvement in terms of variance explained was higher for the early developmental stages than for the later developmental stages, suggesting that stage-specific temperature influences were prominent in the earlier stages, like the yolk-sac stage, and then reduced. Our results implied that water temperature anomalies could be hazardous to fish larvae, especially for fish spawning in late spring and early summer. Given that early-life stage fish are highly sensitive to water temperature, it is imperative to incorporate the potential effects of climate change into fisheries management.

Migrant birds and mammals live faster than residents

Billions of vertebrates migrate to and from their breeding grounds annually, exhibiting astonishing feats of endurance. Many such movements are energetically costly yet there is little consensus on whether or how such costs might influence schedules of survival and reproduction in migratory animals. Here we provide a global analysis of associations between migratory behaviour and vertebrate life histories. After controlling for latitudinal and evolutionary patterns, we find that migratory birds and mammals have faster paces of life than their non-migratory relatives. Among swimming and walking species, migrants tend to have larger body size, while among flying species, migrants are smaller. We discuss whether pace of life is a determinant, consequence, or adaptive outcome, of migration. Our findings have important implications for the understanding of the migratory phenomenon and will help predict the responses of bird and mammal species to environmental change.

Migration is costly. In the first global analysis of migratory vertebrates, authors report that migratory birds and mammals have faster paces of life than their non-migratory relatives, and that among swimming and walking species, migrants tend to be larger, while among flying species, migrants are smaller.

Beyond Thresholds: A Holistic Approach to Impact Assessment Is Needed to Enable Accurate Predictions of Environmental Risk from Oil Spills

The risk assessment for the environmental impact of oil spills in Australia is often conducted in part using a combination of spill mapping and toxicological thresholds derived from laboratory studies. While this process is useful in planning operational responses, such as where to position equipment stockpiles and whether to disperse oil, and can be used to identify areas near the spill site where impacts are likely to occur, it cannot accurately predict the environmental consequences of an oil spill or the ecosystem recovery times. Evidence of this disconnect between model predictions and observed impacts is the lack of a profound effect of the Deepwater Horizon wellhead blowout on recruitment to fisheries in the northern Gulf of Mexico, contrary to the predictions made in the Natural Resources Damage Assessment and despite the occurrence of impacts of the spill on marine mammals, marshes, and deep water ecosystems. The incongruity between predictions made with the current approach using threshold monitoring and impacts measured in the field results from some of the assumptions included in the oil spill models. The incorrect assumptions include that toxicity is acute, results from dissolved phase exposure, and would be readily reversible. The toxicity tests from which threshold models are derived use members of the ecosystem that are easily studied in the lab but may not represent the ecosystem as a whole. The test species are typically highly abundant plankton or planktonic life stages, and they have life histories that account for rapid changes in environmental conditions. As a consequence, these organisms recover quickly from an oil spill. The interdependence of ecosystem components, including the reliance of organisms on their microbiomes, is often overlooked. Additional research to assess these data gaps conducted using economically and ecologically relevant species, especially in Australia and other understudied areas of the world, and the use of population dynamic models, will improve the accuracy of environmental risk assessment for oil spills. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:813-830. © 2020 SETAC.

Population variability under stressors is dependent on body mass growth and asymptotic body size

The recruitment and biomass of a fish stock are influenced by their environmental conditions and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing. The variability in the environment often translates into fluctuations in recruitment, which then propagate throughout the stock biomass. In order to manage fish stocks sustainably, it is necessary to understand their dynamics. Here, we systematically explore the dynamics and sensitivity of fish stock recruitment and biomass to environmental noise. Using an age-structured and trait-based model, we explore random noise (white noise) and autocorrelated noise (red noise) in combination with low to high levels of harvesting. We determine the vital rates of stocks covering a wide range of possible body mass (size) growth rates and asymptotic size parameter combinations. Our study indicates that the variability of stock recruitment and biomass are probably correlated with the stock's asymptotic size and growth rate. We find that fast-growing and large-sized fish stocks are likely to be less vulnerable to disturbances than slow-growing and small-sized fish stocks. We show how the natural variability in fish stocks is amplified by fishing, not just for one stock but for a broad range of fish life histories.

Relative abundance of oceanic juvenile loggerhead sea turtles in relation to nest production at source rookeries: implications for recruitment dynamics

After hatching, juveniles of most sea turtle species undertake long migrations across ocean basins and remain in oceanic habitats for several years. Assessing population abundance and demographic parameters during this oceanic stage is challenging. Two long-recognized deficiencies in population assessment are (i) reliance on trends in numbers of nests or reproductive females at nesting beaches and (ii) ignorance of factors regulating recruitment to the early oceanic stage. To address these critical gaps, we examined 15 years of standardized loggerhead sighting data collected opportunistically by fisheries observers in the Azores archipelago. From 2001 to 2015, 429 loggerheads were sighted during 67,922 km of survey effort. We used a model-based approach to evaluate the influence of environmental factors and present the first estimates of relative abundance of oceanic-stage juvenile sea turtles. During this period, relative abundance of loggerheads in the Azores tracked annual nest abundance at source rookeries in Florida when adjusted for a 3-year lag. This concurrence of abundance patterns indicates that recruitment to the oceanic stage is more dependent on nest abundance at source rookeries than on stochastic processes derived from short term climatic variability, as previously believed.

Setting expected timelines of fished population recovery for the adaptive management of a marine protected area network

Adaptive management of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires developing methods to evaluate whether monitoring data indicate that they are performing as expected. Modeling the expected responses of targeted species to an MPA network, with a clear timeline for those expectations, can aid in the development of a monitoring program that efficiently evaluates expectations over appropriate time frames. Here, we describe the expected trajectories in abundance and biomass following MPA implementation for populations of 19 nearshore fishery species in California. To capture the process of filling in the age structure truncated by fishing, we used age-structured population models with stochastic larval recruitment to predict responses to MPA implementation. We implemented both demographically open (high larval immigration) and closed (high self-recruitment) populations to model the range of possible trajectories as they depend on recruitment dynamics. From these simulations, we quantified the time scales over which anticipated increases in abundance and biomass inside MPAs would become statistically detectable. Predicted population biomass responses range from little change, for species with low fishing rates, to increasing by a factor of nearly seven, for species with high fishing rates before MPA establishment. Increases in biomass following MPA implementation are usually greater in both magnitude and statistical detectability than increases in abundance. For most species, increases in abundance would not begin to become detectable for at least 10 years after implementation. Overall, these results inform potential indicator metrics (biomass), potential indicator species (those with a high fishing : natural mortality ratio), and time frame (>10 yr) for MPA monitoring assessment as part of the adaptive management process.

How survival curves affect populations' vulnerability to climate change

Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments.

Variation in recruitment and the establishment of alternative community states

Mussel beds and rockweed stands (fucoid algae) have been shown to be ilternative states on rocky intertidal shores in New England, and here the hypothesis that variation in recruitment provides opportunity for the development of alternative community states was tested. Disturbance by ice scour opens patches for development of alternative states, and in winter 1996-1997, 60 experimental clearings of differing sizes were established on Swan's Island, Maine, USA. Half of the plots were re-cleared during the winter of 2010-2011. Recruitment data for barnacles, mussels, and fucoid algae collected from 1997 to 2012 were used to (1) test for persistence of scale-dependent thresholds, (2) estimate the magnitudes and sources of variation, (3) fit a surface of alternative states as defined by the cusp catastrophe, and (4) test if 1997 recruitment would predict 2010-2011 recruitment in re-scraped plots (i.e., a test of divergence, which is expected in systems with alternative states). For barnacles and mussels, recruitment varied enormously year to year and among sites, but showed consistent patterns over the long-term with respect to clearing size. Average recruitment prior to re-clearing was a good predictor of recruitment afterwards. In contrast, over 50% of the variance in fucoid recruitment was unexplained with weak effects among years and locations. Past fucoid recruitment was a poor predictor of subsequent recruitment. The cusp analysis indicated that fucoid recruitment defines the alternative states. Fucoid recruitment was largely unpredictable and suggests long-term, small-scale priority effects drive the development of alternative states. These observations strongly reinforce the notion that long-term and well- replicated experiments are necessary to develop robust tests of ecological theory.

Genetic inviability is a major driver of type III survivorship in experimental families of a highly fecund marine bivalve

The offspring of most highly fecund marine fish and shellfish suffer substantial mortality early in the life cycle, complicating prediction of recruitment and fisheries management. Early mortality has long been attributed to environmental factors and almost never to genetic sources. Previous work on a variety of marine bivalve species uncovered substantial genetic inviability among the offspring of inbred crosses, suggesting a large load of early-acting deleterious recessive mutations. However, genetic inviability of randomly bred offspring has not been addressed. Here, genome-wide surveys reveal widespread, genotype-dependent mortality in randomly bred, full-sib progenies of wild-caught Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas). Using gene-mapping methods, we infer that 11-19 detrimental alleles per family render 97.9-99.8% of progeny inviable. The variable genomic positions of viability loci among families imply a surprisingly large load of partially dominant or additive detrimental mutations in wild adult oysters. Although caution is required in interpreting the relevance of experimental results for natural field environments, we argue that the observed genetic inviability corresponds with type III survivorship, which is characteristic of both hatchery and field environments and that our results, therefore, suggest the need for additional experiments under the near-natural conditions of mesocosms. We explore the population genetic implications of our results, calculating a detrimental mutation rate that is comparable to that estimated for conifers and other highly fecund perennial plants. Genetic inviability ought to be considered as a potential major source of low and variable recruitment in highly fecund marine animals.

Assessing the relative importance of local and regional processes on the survival of a threatened salmon population

Research on regulatory mechanisms in biological populations often focuses on environmental covariates. An integrated approach that combines environmental indices with organismal-level information can provide additional insight on regulatory mechanisms. Survival of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) is consistently low whereas some adjacent populations with similar life histories experience greater survival. It is not known if populations with differential survival respond similarly during early marine residence, a critical period in the life history. Ocean collections, genetic stock identification, and otolith analyses were combined to evaluate the growth-mortality and match-mismatch hypotheses during early marine residence of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon. Interannual variation in juvenile attributes, including size at marine entry and marine growth rate, was compared with estimates of survival and physical and biological metrics. Multiple linear regression and multi-model inference were used to evaluate the relative importance of biological and physical metrics in explaining interannual variation in survival. There was relatively weak support for the match-mismatch hypothesis and stronger evidence for the growth-mortality hypothesis. Marine growth and size at capture were strongly, positively related to survival, a finding similar to spring Chinook salmon from the Mid-Upper Columbia River. In hindcast models, basin-scale indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)) and biological indices (juvenile salmon catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and a copepod community index (CCI)) accounted for substantial and similar portions of variation in survival for juvenile emigration years 1998–2008 (R²>0.70). However, in forecast models for emigration years 2009–2011, there was an increasing discrepancy between predictions based on the PDO (50–448% of observed value) compared with those based on the NPGO (68–212%) or biological indices (CPUE and CCI: 83–172%). Overall, the PDO index was remarkably informative in earlier years but other basin-scale and biological indices provided more accurate indications of survival in recent years.

Biomarker responses and morphological effects in juvenile tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus following sequential exposure to the organophosphate azinphos-methyl

Pesticides are contaminants of aquatic environments. Such ecosystems in the Western Cape, South Africa are at risk as most organophosphates are highly toxic to fish and other aquatic organisms. The objective of this experimental study was firstly to determine the acute toxicity of azinphos-methyl (AZP) to juvenile fish (Oreochromis mossambicus) and, secondly, to investigate the effects of repeated exposure of fish to an array of sublethal concentrations on morphological parameters such as growth, condition factor and organ-somatic indices. Food consumption and feeding response time were investigated as ecologically relevant behavioral endpoints which could affect growth, reproduction and survival and subsequently causes impacts at the population and/or community level. Finally, acetylcholinesterase (AChE) was used as biomarker to investigate effects at sub-organismal level following sequential exposure to AZP. The aim was to determine how sequential spraying procedures, using different exposure concentrations and intervals, affected fish as reflected by their responses at different organizational levels. A dose-dependent effect on feeding impairment was observed in the feeding response experiment. The correlation found between growth impairment, feeding activity and AChE inhibition therefore indicates that frequency of exposure can play an important role regarding the severity of impacts to non-target organisms. This study provides evidence that AZP has harmful effects on non-target aquatic organisms, such as fish which can be manifested in the early developmental stages. Sequential exposures showed that dosage and frequency of spraying and spraying interval could exacerbate harmful effects. AChE inhibition and organosomatic indices can be used effectively to measure effects.

Impact of parasites on salmon recruitment in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

Parasites may have large effects on host population dynamics, marine fisheries and conservation, but a clear elucidation of their impact is limited by a lack of ecosystem-scale experimental data. We conducted a meta-analysis of replicated manipulative field experiments concerning the influence of parasitism by crustaceans on the marine survival of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The data include 24 trials in which tagged smolts (totalling 283 347 fish; 1996-2008) were released as paired control and parasiticide-treated groups into 10 areas of Ireland and Norway. All experimental fish were infection-free when released into freshwater, and a proportion of each group was recovered as adult recruits returning to coastal waters 1 or more years later. Treatment had a significant positive effect on survival to recruitment, with an overall effect size (odds ratio) of 1.29 that corresponds to an estimated loss of 39 per cent (95% CI: 18-55%) of adult salmon recruitment. The parasitic crustaceans were probably acquired during early marine migration in areas that host large aquaculture populations of domesticated salmon, which elevate local abundances of ectoparasitic copepods-particularly Lepeophtheirus salmonis. These results provide experimental evidence from a large marine ecosystem that parasites can have large impacts on fish recruitment, fisheries and conservation.

The continuity of living matter and the discontinuities of its constituents: do plankton and benthos really exist?

Plankton and benthos are popular concepts identifying two ways of life of aquatic organisms. Their spatial separation led to the development of different sampling techniques and to separate conceptualizations of the principles governing these subsets of the aquatic environment. Reciprocal connections between plankton and benthos, however, are very strong both from a functional (energy fluxes) and a structural (life cycle dynamics) point of view. A full appreciation of such links is forcing marine ecology towards a more integrated approach.

Ecological metrics of biomass removed by three methods of purse-seine fishing for tunas in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

An ecosystem approach to fisheries management is a widely recognized goal, but describing and measuring the effects of a fishery on an ecosystem is difficult. Ecological information on the entire catch (all animals removed, whether retained or discarded) of both species targeted by the fishery and nontarget species (i.e., bycatch) is required. We used data from the well-documented purse-seine fishery for tunas (Thunnus albacares, T. obesus, and Katsuwonus pelamis) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to examine the fishery's ecological effects. Purse-seine fishing in the eastern tropical Pacific is conducted in 3 ways that differ in the amount and composition of target species and bycatch. The choice of method depends on whether the tunas are swimming alone (unassociated sets), associated with dolphins (dolphin sets), or associated with floating objects (floating-object sets). Among the fishing methods, we compared catch on the basis of weight, number of individuals, trophic level, replacement time, and diversity. Floating-object sets removed 2-3 times as much biomass as the other 2 methods, depending on how removal was measured. Results of previous studies suggest the ecological effects of floating-object sets are thousands of times greater than the effects of other methods, but these results were derived from only numbers of discarded animals. Management of the fishery has been driven to a substantial extent by a focus on reducing bycatch, although discards are currently 4.8% of total catch by weight, compared with global averages of 7.5% for tuna longline fishing and 30.0% for midwater trawling. An ecosystem approach to fisheries management requires that ecological effects of fishing on all animals removed by a fishery, not just bycatch or discarded catch, be measured with a variety of metrics.

The role of harvesting in age-structured populations: disentangling dynamic and age truncation effects

Understanding the processes generating fluctuations of natural populations lies at the very heart of academic ecology. It is also very important for applications such as fisheries management and pest control. We are interested in the effect of harvesting on population fluctuations and for that purpose we develop and analyze an age-structured model where recruitment is a stochastic process and the adult segment of the population is harvested. When a constant annual harvest is taken the coefficient of variation of the adult population increases for most parameter values due to the age truncation effect, i.e. an increased variability in a juvenescent population due to the removal of older individuals. However, if a constant proportion of the adults is harvested the age truncation effect is sometimes counteracted by a stabilizing dynamic effect of harvesting. Depending on parameter values mirroring different life histories, proportional harvest can either increase or decrease the relative fluctuations of an exploited population. When there is a demographic Allee effect the ratio of juveniles to adults may actually decrease with harvesting. We conclude that, depending on life history and harvest strategy, harvesting can either reinforce or dampen population fluctuations due to the relative importance of stabilizing dynamic effects and the age truncation effect. The strength of the latter is highly dependent on the fished population's endogenous, age-structured dynamics. More specifically, we predict that populations with strong and positively autocorrelated dynamics will show stronger age truncation effect, a testable prediction that offers a simple rule-of-thumb assessment of a population's vulnerability to exploitation.

Petroleum hydrocarbons and their effects on fishery species in the Bohai Sea, North China

Systematic studies on the changes in concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons (PHs) and their effects on fishery species in the Bohai Sea during 1974-2004 are presented. Changes in PHs concentrations were closely related to Yellow River runoff. Concentrations of PHs accumulated in fish and shrimp increased by about 0.712 mg/kg dry weight when trophic level of fish and shrimps increased by 1. Attention should also be paid to the high PHs concentrations in mollusks along the coastal waters of the Bohai Sea. Average concentration of PHs in the adjacent coastal waters of Tianjin City during 1996-2005 decreased the population growth rates of fish, crustaceans and mollusks in the Bohai Sea by 2.58%, 6.59% and 2.33%, respectively. Therefore, PHs have significantly contributed to the decline in fisheries in the Bohai Sea, and they must be reduced to realize the sustainable fisheries.

Interactive effects of food quality, temperature and rearing time on condition of juvenile black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri

A laboratory experiment was conducted to determine the interactive effects of temperature and diet on condition indices of juvenile black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri, reared for time periods ranging from 2 to 42 days. After fish were reared for varying periods, growth, morphometric (Fulton's K) and biochemical [RNA:DNA (R:D) ratios] indices were measured. Fulton's K responded primarily to temperature, with progressive decrease in condition over time for fish reared at high temperatures. In contrast, R:D ratios were primarily affected by diet composition, with the highest values observed for fish reared on fish-based diets as opposed to vegetable-based diets. Significant effects of rearing time were also observed for Fulton's K and R:D ratios, as were some interactive treatment effects. In addition, Fulton's K and R:D ratios were not significantly correlated, perhaps due to the different periods of time integrated by each index or their relative sensitivity to lipid and protein deposition. These results highlight the complex responses of these condition indices to environmental variables and nutritional status.

Genetic diversity and gene flow in collapsed and healthy abalone fisheries

Overexploitation of marine species invariably results in population decline but can also have indirect effects on ecological processes such as larval dispersal and recruitment that ultimately affect genetic diversity and population resilience. We compared microsatellite DNA variation among depleted and healthy populations of the black-lip abalone Haliotis rubra from Tasmania, Australia, to determine if over-fishing had affected genetic diversity. We also used genetic data to assess whether variation in the scale and frequency of larval dispersal was linked to greater population decline in some regions than in others, and if larval dispersal was sufficient to facilitate natural recovery of depleted populations. Surprisingly, allelic diversity was higher in depleted populations than in healthy populations (P < 0.05). Significant subdivision across hundreds of metres among our sampling sites (F(ST) = 0.026, P < 0.01), coupled with assignment tests, indicated that larval dispersal is restricted in all regions studied, and that abalone populations across Tasmania are largely self-recruiting. Low levels of larval exchange appear to occur at the meso-scale (7-20 km), but age estimates based on shell size indicated that successful migration of larvae between any two sites may happen only once every few years. We suggest that genetic diversity may be higher in depleted populations due to the higher relative ratio of migrant to self-recruiting larvae. In addition, we expect that recovery of depleted abalone populations will be reliant on sources of larvae at the meso-scale (tens of km), but that natural recovery is only likely to occur on a timescale unacceptable to fishers and resource managers.

Genetic effective size is three orders of magnitude smaller than adult census size in an abundant, Estuarine-dependent marine fish (Sciaenops ocellatus)

Using eight microsatellite loci and a variety of analytical methods, we estimated genetic effective size (N(e)) of an abundant and long-lived marine fish species, the red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The ratio N(e)/N, where short-term variance N(e) was estimated via the temporal method from shifts in allele-frequency data over four cohorts and where N reflected a current estimate of adult census size in the northern Gulf, was approximately 0.001. In an idealized population, this ratio should approximate unity. The extraordinarily low value of N(e)/N appears to arise from high variance in individual reproductive success and perhaps more importantly from variance in productivity of critical spawning and nursery habitats located in spatially discrete bays and estuaries throughout the northern Gulf. An estimate of N(e) based on a coalescent approach, which measures long-term, inbreeding effective size, was four orders of magnitude lower than the estimate of current census size, suggesting that factors presently driving N(e)/N to low values among red drum in the northern Gulf may have operated similarly in the past. Models that predict N(e)/N exclusively from demographic and life-history features will seriously overestimate N(e) if variance in reproductive success and variance in productivity among spatially discrete demes is underestimated. Our results indicate that these variances, especially variance in productivity among demes, must be large for red drum. Moreover, our study indicates that vertebrate populations with enormous adult census numbers may still be at risk relative to decline and extinction from genetic factors.

A modified stepping-stone model of population structure in red drum, Sciaenops ocellatus (Sciaenidae), from the northern Gulf of Mexico

Genetic studies of population or 'stock' structure in exploited marine fishes typically are designed to determine whether geographic boundaries useful for conservation and management planning are identifiable. Implicit in many such studies is the notion that subpopulations or stocks, if they exist, have fixed territories with little or no gene exchange between them. Herein, we review our long-term genetic studies of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), an estuarine-dependent sciaenid fish in the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Significant differences in frequencies of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes and of alleles at nuclear-encoded microsatellites occur among red drum sampled across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The spatial distribution of the genetic variation, however, follows a pattern of isolation-by-distance consistent with the hypothesis that gene flow occurs among subpopulations and is an inverse (and continuous) function of geographic distance. However, successful reproduction and recruitment of red drum depend on estuarine habitats that have geographically discrete boundaries. We hypothesize that population structure in red drum follows a modified one-dimensional, linear stepping-stone model where gene exchange occurs primarily (but not exclusively) between adjacent bays and estuaries distributed linearly along the coastline. Gene flow does occur among estuaries that are not adjacent but probabilities of gene exchange decrease as a function of geographic distance. Implications of our hypothesis are discussed in terms of inferences drawn from patterns of isolation-by-distance and relative to conservation and management of estuarine-dependent species like red drum. Based on estimates of the ratio of genetic effective population size and census size in red drum, observed patterns of gene flow in red drum may play a significant role in recruitment.

Temporal genetic variation of mitochondrial DNA and the female effective population size of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We studied genetic drift of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype frequencies in a natural population of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) from the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The amount of genetic drift observed across temporally adjacent year classes (1986-89) was used to estimate variance effective (female) population size (Nef). Nef was estimated to be 14 308 and the ratio of female effective size to adult female census size was approximately 0.004, which is among the lowest value reported for vertebrate animals. Low effective size relative to census size among red drum in the northern Gulf may result from yearly fluctuations in the number of breeding females, high variance in female reproductive success, or both. Despite low genetic effective size relative to census size, the genetic effective population size of red drum in the northern Gulf appears sufficiently large to preclude potentially deleterious effects of inbreeding.

An augmented Clark model for stability of populations

A simple modification of a frequently employed age-structured model for population dynamics is presented. This augmented formulation allows the assessment of the impact of age-dependent harvest mortality on population stability. The characteristic frequencies of the predicted oscillations are discussed. The period of oscillation is almost independent of survival and the exact functional form of the recruitment function, and it is not equal to twice the mean age of mature animals, as suggested earlier. It is shown that increased survival before reproduction has a destabilizing influence for populations exhibiting an overcompensatory recruitment function.