Age- and sex-specific normal values for shock index in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2008 for ages 8 years and older

Impact of shock index (SI), modified SI, and age-derivative indices on acute heart failure prognosis; A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is still associated with quite considerable mortality rates and usage of simple tools for prognosis is pivotal. We aimed to evaluate the effect of shock index (SI) and its derivatives (age SI (ASI), modified SI (MSI), and age MSI (AMSI)) on acute HF (AHF) clinical outcomes.

METHODS

PubMed/Medline, Scopus and Web of science databases were screened with no time and language limitations till February 2024. We recruited relevant records assessed SI, ASI, MSI or AMSI with AHF clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Eight records were selected (age: 69.44±15.05 years). Mean SI in those records reported mortality (either in-hospital or long-term death) was 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI):0.63-0.72)). In-hospital and follow-up mortality rates in seven(n = 12955) and three(n = 5253) enrolled records were 6.18% and 10.14% with mean SI of 0.68(95%CI:0.63-0.73) and 0.72(95%CI:0.62-0.81), respectively. Deceased versus survived patients had higher SI difference (0.30, 95%CI:0.06-0.53, P = 0.012). Increased SI was associated with higher chances of in-hospital death (odds ratio (OR): 1.93, 95%CI:1.30-2.85, P = 0.001).The optimal SI cut-off point was found to be 0.79 (sensitivity: 57.6%, specificity: 62.1%). In-hospital mortality based on ASI was 6.12% (mean ASI: 47.49, 95%CI: 44.73-50.25) and significant difference was found between death and alive subgroups (0.48, 95%CI:0.39-0.57, P<0.001). Also, ASI was found to be independent in-hospital mortality predictor (OR: 2.54, 95%CI:2.04-3.16, P<0.001)). The optimal ASI cut-off point was found to be 49.6 (sensitivity: 66.3%, specificity: 58.6%). In terms of MSI (mean: 0.93, 95%CI:0.88-0.98)), significant difference was found specified by death/survival status (0.34, 95%CI:0.05-0.63, P = 0.021). AMSI data synthesis was not possible due to presence of a single record.

CONCLUSIONS

SI, ASI, and MSI are practical available tools for AHF prognosis assessment in clinical settings to prioritize high risk patients.

The clinical utility of shock index in hospitalised patients requiring activation of the rapid response team

BACKGROUND

The systolic shock index (SSI) is used to direct management and predict outcomes, but its utility in patients requiring rapid response team (RRT) activation is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We explored whether SSI can predict the outcomes of ward patients experiencing clinical deterioration and compared its performance with other parameters.

METHODS

This retrospective study included adult patients in medical/surgical wards who required RRT activation. We calculated SSI (heart rate/systolic blood pressure [BP]), diastolic shock index (DSI, heart rate/diastolic BP), modified shock index (heart rate/mean BP), and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score at activation. We categorised patients into two groups (SSI: ≥1.0 and <1.0). We performed univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses to evaluate the association of SSI with intensive care unit (ICU) admission, vasopressor therapy, and in-hospital mortality. The covariates included demographics, comorbidities, and reasons for RRT activation.

RESULTS

Among the 837 study patients, 297 (35.5%) had an SSI ≥1.0. On univariate analysis, SSI was associated with vasopressor therapy (odds ratio [OR]: 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.40-2.99) but not ICU admission or in-hospital mortality. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, an SSI ≥1.0 was associated with ICU admission (adjusted OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.05-2.28), vasopressor therapy (adjusted OR: 3.05, 95% CI: 1.86-5.00), and in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.42-3.33). A systolic BP <90 mmHg, mean BP < 65 mmHg, and qSOFA score ≥2 were associated with these outcomes in univariate and multivariable regression analyses (adjusted ORs close to those of SSI). Separate receiver operating characteristic curve analysis found that SSI, diastolic shock index, and modified shock index poorly discriminated between survivors and nonsurvivors (area under the curve: <0.60 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

In ward patients experiencing clinical deterioration, an SSI ≥1.0 was associated with adverse outcomes but did not perform better than systolic and mean BP and qSOFA. This limits its standalone clinical utility in these patients.

Retrospective evaluation of the utility of shock index to determine the presence of congestive heart failure in dogs with myxomatous mitral valve disease (2019-2021): 98 cases

OBJECTIVES

To calculate the shock index (SI) in dogs with myxomatous mitral valve disease (MMVD) and to evaluate its use to predict the presence of congestive heart failure (CHF).

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Small animal university veterinary teaching hospital.

ANIMALS

Ninety-eight dogs with MMVD and 20 healthy dogs as part of a control group.

INTERVENTIONS

Heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were recorded, and SI was calculated by dividing HR by SBP for each dog.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The mean (SD) HR, SBP, and SI were 123/min (32.6), 147 mm Hg (21.5), and 0.86 (0.3), respectively, for dogs with MMVD and 98/min (20.9), 145 mm Hg (18.7), and 0.68 (0.13), respectively, for control dogs. Dogs with MMVD had a significantly higher HR compared with control dogs (P < 0.01), and an elevation in HR was seen as the severity of MMVD increased. Dogs in stage B2 and C/D MMVD had a significantly higher SI value compared with control dogs (P = 0.04 and P < 0.01, respectively). SI was significantly higher in dogs in stage C/D MMVD compared with dogs in stage B2 MMVD (P < 0.01). Ten of 98 (10%) dogs had an arrhythmia. HR, SBP, and SI were not significantly different between dogs with and without arrhythmias (P = 0.13, P = 0.57, and P = 0.07, respectively), but significantly more dogs with CHF had an arrhythmia (P = 0.01). SI (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.98) and HR (AUC: 0.95) were excellent indicators for the presence of CHF. An optimal SI cutoff value ≥1.1 had 92% sensitivity and 95% specificity for predicting the presence of CHF, and an optimal HR cutoff value of ≥157/min had 92% sensitivity and 93% specificity for the prediction of CHF.

CONCLUSIONS

When there are compatible clinical signs, SI values ≥1.1 may suggest the presence of CHF in dogs with MMVD.

Comparison of National Early Warning Score with shock index in patients with necrotizing fasciitis

Shock index (SI) and national early warning score (NEWS) are more frequently used as assessment tools in acute illnesses, patient disposition and early identification of critical condition. Both they are consisted of common vital signs and parameters including heart rate, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and level of conscious, which made it easy to evaluate in medical facilities. Its ability to predict mortality in patients with necrotizing fasciitis (NF) in the emergency department remains unclear. This study was conducted to compare the predictive capability of the risk scores among NF patients. A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with NF was conducted in 2 tertiary teaching hospitals in Taiwan between January 2013 and March 2015. We investigated the association of NEWS and SI with mortality in NF patients. Of the 395 NF patients, 32 (8.1%) died in the hospital. For mortality, the area under the receiver curve value of NEWS (0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.76-0.86) was significantly higher than SI (0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79, P = .016). The sensitivities of NEWS of 3, 4, and 5 for mortality were 98.1%, 95.6%, and 92.3%. On the contrast, the sensitivities of SI of 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7 for mortality were 87.8%, 84.7%, and 81.5%. NEWS had advantage in better discriminative performance of mortality in NF patients. The NEWS may be used to identify relative low risk patients among NF patients.

Pediatric Age-Adjusted Shock Index as a Predictor of Mortality by Sex Disparity in Pediatric Trauma: A Pan-Asian Trauma Outcome Study

PURPOSE

There has been no report of sex-specific, pediatric age-adjusted shock index (PASI) for pediatric trauma patients in previous studies. We aimed to determine the association between the PASI and in-hospital mortality of pediatric trauma patients and whether this association differs depending on sex.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a prospective, multinational, and multicenter cohort study using the Pan-Asian Trauma Outcome Study (PATOS) registry in the Asia-Pacific region, conducted in pediatric patients who visited the participating hospitals. The main exposure of our study was abnormal (elevated) PASI measured in an emergency department. The main outcome was in-hospital mortality. We performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis to estimate the association between abnormal PASI and study outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders. An interaction analysis between PASI and sex was also conducted.

RESULTS

Of 6280 pediatric trauma patients, 10.9% (686) of the patients had abnormal PASI. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, abnormal PASI was significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality [adjusted odds ratios (aOR), 1.74; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13-2.47]. Abnormal PASI had interaction effects with sex for in-hospital mortality (aOR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.19-2.91 and aOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.58-2.99 for male and female, respectively) (p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

Abnormal PASI is associated with increased in-hospital mortality in pediatric trauma patients. The prediction power of PASI for in-hospital mortality was maintained only in male patients.

Shock index, modified shock index, and age-adjusted shock index as predictors of in-hospital death in acute heart failure.Sub Analysis of the ARGEN IC

Decompensated heart failure (DHF) is an important cause of in-hospital death in the coronary care unit. Estimating this risk becomes a clinical challenge. The shock index (IShock) and its variances have proven to be useful in predicting mortality in other pathologies and are easily obtained at admission OBJECTIVE: : Evaluate the predictive capacity of IShock and its variants for in-hospital mortality in patients with DHF MATERIAL AND METHODS: : Retrospective study of patients (p) prospectively and consecutively included in the ARGEN IC national registry. IShock, was calculated using the formula: HR/TAS, IShockM was calculated using HR/TAM, and IShock adjusted for age was calculated using the formula IShock x age. These indices were analyzed using the ROC curve and the Youden index to find the value that predicted in-hospital mortality with the greatest sensitivity and specificity. The prognostic value of the indices for in- hospital mortality was analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. Patients with cardiogenic shock were excluded from the analysis. RESULTS: : 879 patients. Age 74 years (IQR 25-75 64-83). 60% male. 74% hypertensive, 33% diabetic and 42% had ejection fraction <40%. In-hospital mortality was 6.6%. According to Youden 's test, the best value for predicting IShock mortality was 0.9, for IShockM of 1.26 with and for the adjusted IShock of 50.4. The last two showed an independent predictive value in different multivariate models. CONCLUSION: : The IShockM and the IShock x age, taken at the patient´s admission for decompensated heart failure, are very easily obtained at no additional cost providing useful information on hospital major outcomes.

Shock Index in the early assessment of febrile children at the emergency department: a prospective multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

(1) To derive reference values for the Shock Index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) based on a large emergency department (ED) population of febrile children and (2) to determine the diagnostic value of the Shock Index for serious illness in febrile children.

DESIGN/SETTING

Observational study in 11 European EDs (2017-2018).

PATIENTS

Febrile children with measured blood pressure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serious bacterial infection (SBI), invasive bacterial infection (IBI), immediate life-saving interventions (ILSIs) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The association between high Shock Index (>95th centile) and each outcome was determined by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, referral, comorbidity and temperature. Additionally, we calculated sensitivity, specificity and negative/positive likelihood ratios (LRs).

RESULTS

Of 5622 children, 461 (8.2%) had SBI, 46 (0.8%) had IBI, 203 (3.6%) were treated with ILSI and 69 (1.2%) were ICU admitted. High Shock Index was associated with SBI (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9)), ILSI (aOR 2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.9)), ICU admission (aOR 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.9)) but not with IBI (aOR: 1.5 (95% CI 0.6 to 2.4)). For the different outcomes, sensitivity for high Shock Index ranged from 0.10 to 0.15, specificity ranged from 0.95 to 0.95, negative LRs ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 and positive LRs ranged from 1.8 to 2.8.

CONCLUSIONS

High Shock Index is associated with serious illness in febrile children. However, its rule-out value is insufficient which suggests that the Shock Index is not valuable as a screening tool for all febrile children at the ED.

The diagnostic capability of electrocardiography on the cardiogenic shock in the patients with acute myocarditis

Background

The study was performed to assess the diagnostic capability of ECG on the cardiogenic shock (CS) in acute myocarditis. A new score was derived from the combination of the ECG parameters and the diagnostic value was also evaluated.

Methods

Total 103 consecutive patients with acute myocarditis admitted in Nanjing Drum Hospital were enrolled in the current study. The cohort was divided into fulminant myocarditis group (FM, n = 20) and non fulminant myocarditis group (NFM, n = 83). The demographic features, results of electrocardiography (ECG) and ultracardiography were compared. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the relevant factors in ECG parameters. We created a new variable called “ECG score” by certain combination of ECG parameters. The diagnostic capability of ECG score for CS was compared with the existing diagnostic indices using regression model and receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis.

Results

There were several changes on ECG significantly different between the two groups. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated PR + QRS interval (P = 0.008), ventricular arrhythmia (P = 0.001) and pathological Q wave (P = 0.003) were the independent relevant factors of CS. The derived variable “ECG score” was identified as a significant relevant factor of CS by multivariate regression model. ROC analysis showed PR + QRS interval, ventricular arrhythmia and pathological Q wave all had equivalent diagnostic capability to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and shock index (SI). ECG score was equivalent to LVEF but superior to SI in diagnosing CS

Conclusions

ECG was valuable in diagnosing CS due to acute myocarditis. The ECG score was superior to the traditional diagnostic indices and could be used for an rapid recognition of CS.

Association between hypotension and serious illness in the emergency department: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The value of routine blood pressure measurement in the emergency department (ED) is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between hypotension in addition to tachycardia and the Shock Index for serious illness.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

University ED (2009-2016).

PARTICIPANTS, METHODS AND MAIN OUTCOMES

Routine data collected from consecutive children <16 years. Using logistic regression, we assessed the association between hypotension (adjusted for tachycardia) and Shock Index (ratio heart rate/blood pressure [BP]) for serious illness. The predictive accuracy (sensitivity, specificity) for hypotension and Shock Index was determined for serious illness, defined as intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital admissions.

RESULTS

We included 10 698 children with measured BP. According to three age-adjusted clinical cut-offs (Advanced Paediatric Life Support, Paediatric Advanced Life Support and Paediatric Early Warning Score), hypotension was significantly associated with ICU admission when adjusted for tachycardia (range OR 2.6-5.3). Hypotension showed low sensitivity (range 0.05-0.12) and high specificity (range 0.95-0.99) for ICU admission. Combining hypotension and tachycardia did not change the predictive value for ICU admission. Similar results were found for hospitalisation. Shock index was associated with serious illness. However, no specific cut-off value was identified in different age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypotension, adjusted for tachycardia, is associated with serious illness, although its sensitivity is limited. Shock index showed an association with serious illness, but no acceptable cut-off value could be identified. Routine BP measurement in all children to detect hypotension has limited value in the ED. Future studies need to confirm which patients could benefit from BP measurement.

The use of the shock index to predict hemodynamic collapse in hypotensive sepsis patients: A cross-sectional analysis

Objectives:

Septic shock, defined as sepsis with hypotension not responding to fluid resuscitation or requiring vasopressor support, results in the worst outcomes in sepsis patients. This subtype of the patient is often difficult to detect. The shock index (SI) has demonstrated the potential for predicting hemodynamic compromise and collapse and predicting patient outcomes in multiple medical and surgical settings. In our study, we assessed the utility of the SI as a hemodynamic screening tool to identify patients likely to fail to respond to fluids and ultimately to be diagnosed with septic shock.

Methodology:

A single-center cross-sectional analysis of patients presenting with hypotension and septicemia over 1 year. The study was conducted using the electronic medical records of the emergency department patients presenting to King Saud University Medical City. The charts were reviewed from 2 May 2015 to 24 April 2016 using the local medical registry. The study was approved by the hospital institutional review board (IRB). Data extraction was performed using a standardized form.

Results:

The area under the curve was 0.77 (P < 0.001) for the prediction of hemodynamic collapse. An initial SI ≥0.875 had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 72% for the identification of patients in whom fluid resuscitation would fail.

Conclusions:

Based on our findings, we found that the SI was a reliable screening tool for the identification of hypotensive patients with sepsis who would ultimately be diagnosed with septic shock.

Interfacility Transport Shock Index Is Associated With Decreased Survival in Children

BACKGROUND

Shock index, the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure that changes with age, is associated with mortality in adults after trauma and in children with sepsis. We assessed the utility of shock index to predict sepsis diagnosis and survival in children requiring interfacility transport to a tertiary care center.

METHODS

We studied children aged 1 month to 21 years who had at least 2 sets of vital signs recorded during interfacility transport to the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh by our critical care transport team. Subjects were divided into 4 age groups: group 1 (<1 year), group 2 (1-3 years), group 3 (4-11 years), and group 4 (≥12 years). Children were also grouped into sepsis or nonsepsis group based on the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision categories. Primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge.

RESULTS

Of 3519 children studied, 493 (14%) had sepsis. Initial shock index decreased with increasing age: group 1, 1.45 ± 0.42 (mean ± SD); group 2, 1.35 ± 0.32; group 3, 1.20 ± 0.34; and group 4, 1.00 ± 0.32 (P < 0.001). Initial shock index was increased in children with sepsis versus those with no sepsis overall and in all age groups (all P < 0.05). Initial shock index showed a trend for association with survival in univariate analysis (P = 0.05) but was not associated with survival in a multivariable logistic regression. Highest quartile of shock index was associated with need for intensive care unit admission posttransport.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased shock index in children requiring intrafacility transport was associated with hospital discharge diagnosis of sepsis but not hospital survival.

Clinical Decision Support for Early Recognition of Sepsis

Sepsis is an inflammatory response triggered by infection, with a high in-hospital mortality rate. Early recognition and treatment can reverse the inflammatory response, with evidence of improved patient outcomes. One challenge clinicians face is identifying the inflammatory syndrome against the background of the patient's infectious illness and comorbidities. An approach to this problem is implementation of computerized early warning tools for sepsis. This multicenter retrospective study sought to determine clinimetric performance of a cloud-based computerized sepsis clinical decision support system (CDS), understand the epidemiology of sepsis, and identify opportunities for quality improvement. Data encompassed 6200 adult hospitalizations from 2012 through 2013. Of 13% patients screened-in, 51% were already suspected to have an infection when the system activated. This study focused on a patient cohort screened-in before infection was suspected; median time from arrival to CDS activation was 3.5 hours, and system activation to diagnostic collect was another 8.6 hours.

Shock Index in Patients Presenting With Acute Heart Failure: A Multicenter Multinational Observational Study

Shock index (SI) has a prognostic role in coronary heart disease; however, data on acute heart failure (AHF) are lacking. We evaluated the predictive values of SI in patients with AHF. Data were retrospectively analyzed from the Gulf Acute Heart Failure Registry. Patients were categorized into low SI versus high SI based on the receiver operating characteristic curves. Primary outcomes included cardiogenic shock (CS) and mortality. Among 4818 patients with AHF, 1143 had an SI ≥0.9. Compared with SI <0.9, patients with high SI were more likely males, younger, and having advanced New York Heart Association class, fewer cardiovascular risk factors and less prehospital β-blockers and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor use. Shock index had significant negative correlations with age, pulse pressure, mean arterial pressure, and left ventricle ejection fraction and had positive correlation with hospital length of stay. Shock index ≥0.9 was significantly associated with higher composite end points, in-hospital, and 3-month mortality. Shock index ≥0.9 had 96% negative predictive value (NPV) and 3.5 relative risk for mortality. Multivariate regression analysis showed that SI was independent predictor of mortality and CS. With a high NPV, SI is a simple reliable bedside tool for risk stratification of patients with AHF. However, this conclusion needs further support.

Pattern and Distribution of Shock Index and Age Shock Index Score Among Trauma Patients in Towards Improved Trauma Care Outcomes (TITCO) Dataset

OBJECTIVE

To compare the shock index (SI - which is the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure) and Age SI (Age in years multiplied by SI) with survival outcome of the patients across multicenter trauma registry in India.

METHODS

Study is based on Towards Improved Trauma Care Outcomes (TITCO) project. Records with valid details of age, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, Injury Severity Scale (ISS) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score was considered. SI was categorized into four groups; Group I (SI<0.6) as no shock, group II (SI ≥0.6 to <1.0) as mild shock, group III (SI ≥1.0 to <1.4) as moderate shock and group IV (SI ≥1.4) as severe shock. Age SI was categorized decade wise into six groups. Mortality was dependent variable. GCS and ISS were considered as secondary variables.

RESULTS

10843 participants from TITCO registry satisfying inclusion-exclusion criteria were considered for study. Mean SI score in group I to IV was increasing with 0.53 to 1.72 respectively. Age SI was seen to be increasing across its six groups. Gender wise no difference was found among SI group. For severe ISS and critical ISS, mortality in SI group IV was 50% and 56 % respectively. Mortality was increasing across mild to severe GCS among all SI groups.

CONCLUSION

The categorized SI and Age SI had shown increase in death percentages from mild to severe severity of injuries. Similar to GCS and ISS, SI and Age SI should also be calculated and categorized in all health care and further plan for management aspects.

The value of shock index in prediction of cardiogenic shock developed during primary percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

Shock index(SI) is a conventional predictive marker for haemodynamic state. Its breakpoint varies by different conditions according to previous studies. The current study was performed to evaluate the capability of SI in prediction of cardiogenic shock(CS) developed during primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI).

METHODS

Total 870 patients of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI) who were haemodynamic stable before pPCI were involved in the study. In this cohort, 625 consecutive patients composed analysis series and 245 consecutive patients composed validation series. Multivariate regression analysis was used to evaluate whether SI was a significant predictor of developed CS and Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess the goodness of model fitness. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to compare the predictive capability of SI with other predictors. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values of SI at different cutoff values was compared to identify a best breakpoint.

RESULTS

In the analysis series, SI and Killips classification were identified as independent predictors. ROC analysis demonstrated the diagnostic capability of SI was superior to pre-procedural systolic blood pressure(SBP) or heart rate(HR) alone (0.8113 vs 0.7582, P = 0.04 and 0.8113 vs 0.7111, P < 0.001). The diagnostic capability of SI was equivalent to that of combination of SBP, HR and Killips claasification(0.8133 vs 0.8137, P = 0.97). SI had a high specificity and low sensitivity. When the cutoff value was set at 0.93, the positive predictive value, negative predictive value and diagnostic accuracy was 42.6%, 95.1% and 87.4% respectively. In validation series, the area under ROC curve was 0.8245, which was similar to that in the analysis series. The positive predictive value, negative predictive value and diagnostic accuracy at the cutoff value of 0.93 was 53.8%, 93.2% and 88.9% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SI has a high predictive accuracy for developing CS during pPCI in STEMI patients. It is an excellent exclusion diagnosis index rather than confirmative diagnosis index.

Physical therapy clinical specialization and management of red and yellow flags in patients with low back pain in the United States

Objectives

Physical therapists (PTs) may practice in direct access or act as primary care practitioners, which necessitate patients' screening and management for red, orange and yellow flags. The objective of the project was to assess the American PT's ability to manage red, orange and yellow flags in patients with low back pain (LBP), and to compare this ability among PTs with different qualifications.

Methods

The project was an electronic cross-sectional survey. The investigators contacted 2,861 PTs. Participants made clinical decisions for three vignettes: LBP with red flag for ectopic pregnancy, with orange flag for depression and with yellow flag for fear avoidance behaviour (FAB). The investigators used logistic regression to compare management of warning flags among PTs with distinct qualifications: orthopaedic clinical specialists (PTOs), fellows of the AAOMPT (PTFs), PTOs and PTFs (PTFOs), and PTs without clinical specialization (PTMSs).

Results

A total of 410 PTs completed all sections of the survey (142 PTOs, 110 PTFOs, 74 PTFs and 84 PTMSs). Two hundred and seventeen PTs (53%) managed the patient with LBP and symptoms of ectopic pregnancy correctly, 115 PTs (28.5%) of them managed the patient with LBP and symptoms of depression correctly, and 177 (43.2%) managed the patient with LBP and FAB correctly.

Discussion

In general, PTs with specialization performed significantly better than PTMSs in all three clinical vignettes. PTs ability to manage patients with warning flags was relatively low. Based on our results, further education on patients with LBP and warning flags is needed. The survey had the potential for non-response and self-selection bias.

Level of Evidence

3b.

Case-control study of shock index among women who did and did not receive blood transfusions due to postpartum hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

To compare shock index (SI) values between women who required blood transfusion due to postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and women who did not.

METHODS

In a case-control study, clinical data were assessed from the medical records of women requiring blood transfusion for PPH at a center in Brazil between 2012 and 2015 (n=105). A control group was randomly selected from women who did not receive blood transfusion (n=129).

RESULTS

Compared with women who did not receive a transfusion after delivery, women who did receive one had significantly higher SI values 10 minutes after delivery (0.81 ± 0.27 vs 0.72 ± 0.16; P=0.012), at 30 minutes (0.83 ± 0.26 vs 0.71 ± 0.15; P<0.001), and at 2 hours (0.84 ± 0.27 vs 0.70 ± 0.14; P=0.032). For vaginal deliveries, SI values were significantly different at 30 minutes (0.88 ± 0.26 vs 0.71 ± 0.14; P<0.001) and 2 hours (0.90 ± 0.23 vs 0.72 ± 0.14; P=0.001). No significant differences were found for cesarean delivery.

CONCLUSION

The SI might be useful to identify early vital sign changes due to PPH. Increased SI values were associated with need for transfusion in vaginal deliveries.

A Multidisciplinary Sepsis Program Enabled by a Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support System: Factors That Influence Patient Outcomes

Sepsis is an inflammatory response triggered by infection, with risk of in-hospital mortality fueled by disease progression. Early recognition and intervention by multidisciplinary sepsis programs may reverse the inflammatory response among at-risk patient populations, potentially improving outcomes. This retrospective study of a sepsis program enabled by a 2-stage sepsis Clinical Decision Support (CDS) system sought to evaluate the program's impact, identify early indicators that may influence outcomes, and uncover opportunities for quality improvement. Data encompassed 16 527 adult hospitalizations from 2014 and 2015. Of 2108 non-intensive care unit patients screened-in by sepsis CDS, 97% patients were stratified by 177 providers. Risk of adverse outcome improved 30% from baseline to year end, with gains materializing and stabilizing at month 7 after sepsis program go-live. Early indicators likely to influence outcomes include patient age, recent hospitalization, electrolyte abnormalities, hypovolemic shock, hypoxemia, patient location when sepsis CDS activated, and specific alert patterns.

Shock Index and Decreased Level of Consciousness as Terminal Cancer Patients' Survival Time Predictors: A Retrospective Cohort Study

CONTEXT

Predicting prognosis using noninvasive and objective tools may facilitate end-of-life decisions for terminal cancer patients, their families, and other health care professionals.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate if the shock index (SI), along with decreased level of consciousness (DLOC), is a reliable tool for predicting short-term survival time in terminal cancer patients.

METHODS

A two-part retrospective cohort study was performed on 670 consecutive adult hospice patients. Part 1 of the study was performed to investigate the reliability of SI and DLOC on admission and to make a simple tool for predicting survival time. Part 2 of the study was to validate the tool's reproducibility and analyze the correlation between SI, DLOC, and survival time.

RESULTS

In Part 1, multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses for all study patients revealed that SI ≥ 1.0 in patients with DLOC was a significant risk factor of death (hazard ratio 3.08; 95% CI 1.72-5.53; P = 0.000). Generalized additive models confirmed that DLOC patients with SI = 1.0 had 9.58 days of mean survival time (MST). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses of SI in patients with DLOC revealed that a survival time of less than three days was most reliably predicted. In Part 2, an increase in SI statistically decreased survival time. The upper 95% CIs of the calculated mean survival time for DLOC patients with SI ≥ 1.0 were less than one week. Bootstrap analyses revealed that the 95% CIs of the predicted survival time were 4.54-6.18 days in DLOC patients with SI = 1.0.

CONCLUSION

An SI ≥ 1.0 along with DLOC is a highly reliable tool for predicting short-term survival time in terminal cancer patients.

Cardiac dysfunction following brain death in children: prevalence, normalization, and transplantation

OBJECTIVES

Cardiac dysfunction has been reported to occur in as much as 42% of adults with brain death, and may limit cardiac donation after brain death. Knowledge of the prevalence and natural course of cardiac dysfunction after brain death may help to improve screening and transplant practices but adequately sized studies in pediatric brain death are lacking. The aims of our study are to describe the prevalence and course of cardiac dysfunction after pediatric brain death.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING/SUBJECTS

We examined an organ procurement organization database (Life Center Northwest) of potential pediatric cardiac donors diagnosed with brain death between January 2011 and November 2013.

INTERVENTION

Transthoracic echocardiograms were reviewed for cardiac dysfunction (defined as ejection fraction <50% or the presence of regional wall motion abnormalities). Descriptive statistics were used to analyze clinical characteristics and describe longitudinal echocardiogram findings in a subgroup of patients. We examined for heterogeneity between cardiac dysfunction with respect to cause of brain death.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS

We identified 60 potential pediatric cardiac donors (age ≤ 18 yr) with at least one transthoracic echocardiogram following brain death. Cardiac dysfunction was present in 23 patients (38%) with brain death. Mean ejection fraction (37.6% vs 62.2%) and proportion of procured hearts (56.5% vs 83.8%) differed significantly between the groups with and without cardiac dysfunction, respectively. Of the 11 subjects with serial transthoracic echocardiogram data, the majority of patients with cardiac dysfunction (73%) improved over time, leading to organ procurement. No heterogeneity between cardiac dysfunction and particular causes of brain death was observed.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of cardiac dysfunction in children with brain death is high. Serial transthoracic echocardiograms in patients with cardiac dysfunction showed improvement of cardiac function in most patients, suggesting that initial decisions to procure should not solely depend on the initial transthoracic echocardiogram examination results.

Clinical Decision Support for Early Recognition of Sepsis

Sepsis is an inflammatory response triggered by infection, with a high in-hospital mortality rate. Early recognition and treatment can reverse the inflammatory response, with evidence of improved patient outcomes. One challenge clinicians face is identifying the inflammatory syndrome against the background of the patient's infectious illness and comorbidities. An approach to this problem is implementation of computerized early warning tools for sepsis. This multicenter retrospective study sought to determine clinimetric performance of a cloud-based computerized sepsis clinical decision support system (CDS), understand the epidemiology of sepsis, and identify opportunities for quality improvement. Data encompassed 6200 adult hospitalizations from 2012 through 2013. Of 13% patients screened-in, 51% were already suspected to have an infection when the system activated. This study focused on a patient cohort screened-in before infection was suspected; median time from arrival to CDS activation was 3.5 hours, and system activation to diagnostic collect was another 8.6 hours.

Correlation of computed tomography angiography parameters and shock index to assess the transportation risk in aortic dissection patients

BACKGROUND

Aortic dissection (AD) is a serious, life-threatening disease. It is currently crucial for AD patients to be transferred to a specialised hospital in a safe and timely manner. For this reason, the search for clinical and imaging changes related to transportation risk is becoming increasingly important.

PURPOSE

The transportation risks of AD patients were assessed by studying the correlation between computed tomography angiography (CTA) parameters and shock index.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Thirty-six cases of AD confirmed with 64-slice volumetric CT (VCT) (18 cases of Stanford type A and 18 cases of type B) were divided into a high-risk group (14 cases, six Stanford type A and eight type B) and a low-risk group (22 cases, 12 Stanford type A and 10 type B) according to the modified Early Warning Score. The shock index (ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure) and measured CTA parameters were compared between the high-risk group and the low-risk group, and the correlation between the measured CTA parameters and shock index was analysed.

RESULTS

The shock index and ratio of false/true lumen were compared between Stanford type A and type B, and no statistically significant differences were found. The shock index and ratio of false/true lumen were compared between the high-risk group and low-risk group, revealing a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05). Moreover, a significant linear correlation was found between the ratio of false/true lumen and the shock index (r = 0.691; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The higher the shock index and the ratio of false/true lumen are, the greater the transportation risk for AD patients. The shock index and the ratio of false/true lumen proved to be essential clinical and radiological indices for assessing the transportation risk of AD patients.

Automated prediction of early blood transfusion and mortality in trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Prediction of blood transfusion needs and mortality for trauma patients in near real time is an unrealized goal. We hypothesized that analysis of pulse oximeter signals could predict blood transfusion and mortality as accurately as conventional vital signs (VSs).

METHODS

Continuous VS data were recorded for direct admission trauma patients with abnormal prehospital shock index (SI = heart rate [HR] / systolic blood pressure) greater than 0.62. Predictions of transfusion during the first 24 hours and in-hospital mortality using logistical regression models were compared with DeLong's method for areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to determine the optimal combinations of prehospital SI and HR, continuous photoplethysmographic (PPG), oxygen saturation (SpO2), and HR-related features.

RESULTS

We enrolled 556 patients; 37 received blood within 24 hours; 7 received more than 4 U of red blood cells in less than 4 hours or "massive transfusion" (MT); and 9 died. The first 15 minutes of VS signals, including prehospital HR plus continuous PPG, and SpO2 HR signal analysis best predicted transfusion at 1 hour to 3 hours, MT, and mortality (AUROC, 0.83; p < 0.03) and no differently (p = 0.32) from a model including blood pressure. Predictions of transfusion based on the first 15 minutes of data were no different using 30 minutes to 60 minutes of data collection. SI plus PPG and SpO2 signal analysis (AUROC, 0.82) predicted 1-hour to 3-hour transfusion, MT, and mortality no differently from pulse oximeter signals alone.

CONCLUSION

Pulse oximeter features collected in the first 15 minutes of our trauma patient resuscitation cohort, without user input, predicted early MT and mortality in the critical first hours of care better than the currently used VS such as combinations of HR and systolic blood pressure or prehospital SI alone.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/prognostic study, level II.