Accounting for age of onset and family history improves power in genome-wide association studies

Using Alternative Definitions of Controls to Increase Statistical Power in GWAS

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are often underpowered due to small effect sizes of common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on phenotypes and extreme multiple testing thresholds. The most common approach for increasing statistical power is to increase sample size. We propose an alternative strategy of redefining case-control outcomes into ordinal case-subthreshold-asymptomatic variables. While maintaining the clinical case threshold, we subdivide controls into two groups: individuals who are symptomatic but do not meet the clinical criteria for diagnosis (subthreshold) and individuals who are effectively asymptomatic. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of effect size, minor allele frequency, population prevalence, and the prevalence of the subthreshold group on statistical power to detect genetic associations in three scenarios: a standard case-control, an ordinal, and a case-asymptomatic control analysis. Our results suggest the ordinal model consistently provides the greatest statistical power while the case-control model the least. Power in the case-asymptomatic control model reflects the case-control or ordinal model depending on the population prevalence and size of the subthreshold category. We then analyzed a major depression phenotype from the UK Biobank to corroborate our simulation results. Overall, the ordinal model improves statistical power in GWAS consistent with increasing the sample size by approximately 10%.

Schizophrenia polygenic risk scores, clinical variables and genetic pathways as predictors of phenotypic traits of bipolar I disorder

AIM

We investigated the predictive value of polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from the schizophrenia GWAS (Trubetskoy et al., 2022) (SCZ3) for phenotypic traits of bipolar disorder type-I (BP-I) in 1878 BP-I cases and 2751 controls from Romania and UK.

METHODS

We used PRSice-v2.3.3 and PRS-CS for computing SCZ3-PRS for testing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with clinical variables for several BP-I subphenotypes and for pathway analysis. Non-linear predictive models were also used.

RESULTS

SCZ3-PRS significantly predicted psychosis, incongruent and congruent psychosis, general age-of-onset (AO) of BP-I, AO-depression, AO-Mania, rapid cycling in univariate regressions. A negative correlation between the number of depressive episodes and psychosis, mainly incongruent and an inverse relationship between increased SCZ3-SNP loading and BP-I-rapid cycling were observed. In random forest models comparing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with nine clinical variables, the best predictions were provided by combinations of SCZ3-PRS-CS and clinical variables closely followed by models containing only clinical variables. SCZ3-PRS performed worst. Twenty-two significant pathways underlying psychosis were identified.

LIMITATIONS

The combined RO-UK sample had a certain degree of heterogeneity of the BP-I severity: only the RO sample and partially the UK sample included hospitalized BP-I cases. The hospitalization is an indicator of illness severity. Not all UK subjects had complete subphenotype information.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that the SCZ3-PRS have a modest clinical value for predicting phenotypic traits of BP-I. For clinical use their best performance is in combination with clinical variables.

Human-specific insights into candidate genes and boosted discoveries of novel loci illuminate roles of neuroglia in reading disorders

Reading disorders (RD) are human-specific neuropsychological conditions associated with decoding printed words and/or reading comprehension. So far only a handful of candidate genes segregated in families and 42 loci from genome-wide association study (GWAS) have been identified that jointly provided little clues of pathophysiology. Leveraging human-specific genomic information, we critically assessed the RD candidates for the first time and found substantial human-specific features within. The GWAS candidates (i.e., population signals) were distinct from the familial counterparts and were more likely pleiotropic in neuropsychiatric traits and to harbor human-specific regulatory elements (HSREs). Candidate genes associated with human cortical morphology indeed showed human-specific expression in adult brain cortices, particularly in neuroglia likely regulated by HSREs. Expression levels of candidate genes across human brain developmental stages showed a clear pattern of uplifted expression in early brain development crucial to RD development. Following the new insights and loci pleiotropic in cognitive traits, we identified four novel genes from the GWAS sub-significant associations (i.e., FOXO3, MAPT, KMT2E and HTT) and the Semaphorin gene family with functional priors (i.e., SEMA3A, SEMA3E and SEMA5B). These novel genes were related to neuronal plasticity and disorders, mostly conserved the pattern of uplifted expression in early brain development and had evident expression in cortical neuroglial cells. Our findings jointly illuminated the association of RD with neuroglia regulation-an emerging hotspot in studying neurodevelopmental disorders, and highlighted the need of improving RD phenotyping to avoid jeopardizing future genetic studies of RD.

A comprehensive analysis of age of onset and cumulative incidence of mental disorders: A Danish register study

BACKGROUND

The age of onset (AOO), incidence and cumulative incidence of mental disorders are critical epidemiological measures, providing essential insights into the development and course of these disorders across the lifespan. This study aims to provide up-to-date estimates of the AOO, age-specific incidence, and cumulative incidence for a comprehensive range of mental disorders using data from Danish registers.

METHODS

We conducted a follow-up study encompassing all Danish residents from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2021, totaling 91,613,465 person-years. Data were sourced from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register, identifying individuals treated for various mental disorders in psychiatric hospitals, outpatient departments, and accident/emergency departments, that is, treated in secondary care settings. We investigated specific categories of mental disorders, including substance abuse disorders, schizophrenia, mood disorders, anxiety, eating disorders, borderline personality disorders, intellectual disabilities, pervasive developmental disorders, and behavioral and emotional disorders. Age-sex-specific incidence rates were estimated using Poisson generalized linear models, and cumulative incidence was calculated using Aalen-Johansen's competing risks model. The study provides estimates of AOO, incidence, and cumulative incidence for various mental disorders, including their age and sex distributions.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence by age 80 years for any mental disorder was 30.72% (95% confidence interval: 30.62%-30.83%) for males and 34.46% (34.35%-34.57%) for females. The most common types of mental disorders were anxiety-related disorders 16.27% (16.19%-16.36%) for males and 23.39% (23.29%-23.50%) for females, and followed by mood disorder 10.34% (10.27%-10.41%) for males and 16.67% (16.58%-16.77%) for females. For those who develop mental disorder, half will have developed their disorder by approximately age 22 years (median and interquartile range: males 21.37 (11.85-36.00); females 22.55 (16.31-36.08)).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one in three individuals will seek treatment for at least one mental disorder in a secondary care setting by age 80. Given that half of these individuals develop mental disorders before age 22, it is crucial to tailor service planning to meet the specific needs of young individuals. Web-based interactive data-visualization tools are provided for clinical utility.

Rare copy-number variants as modulators of common disease susceptibility

BACKGROUND

Copy-number variations (CNVs) have been associated with rare and debilitating genomic disorders (GDs) but their impact on health later in life in the general population remains poorly described.

METHODS

Assessing four modes of CNV action, we performed genome-wide association scans (GWASs) between the copy-number of CNV-proxy probes and 60 curated ICD-10 based clinical diagnoses in 331,522 unrelated white British UK Biobank (UKBB) participants with replication in the Estonian Biobank.

RESULTS

We identified 73 signals involving 40 diseases, all of which indicating that CNVs increased disease risk and caused earlier onset. We estimated that 16% of these associations are indirect, acting by increasing body mass index (BMI). Signals mapped to 45 unique, non-overlapping regions, nine of which being linked to known GDs. Number and identity of genes affected by CNVs modulated their pathogenicity, with many associations being supported by colocalization with both common and rare single-nucleotide variant association signals. Dissection of association signals provided insights into the epidemiology of known gene-disease pairs (e.g., deletions in BRCA1 and LDLR increased risk for ovarian cancer and ischemic heart disease, respectively), clarified dosage mechanisms of action (e.g., both increased and decreased dosage of 17q12 impacted renal health), and identified putative causal genes (e.g., ABCC6 for kidney stones). Characterization of the pleiotropic pathological consequences of recurrent CNVs at 15q13, 16p13.11, 16p12.2, and 22q11.2 in adulthood indicated variable expressivity of these regions and the involvement of multiple genes. Finally, we show that while the total burden of rare CNVs-and especially deletions-strongly associated with disease risk, it only accounted for ~ 0.02% of the UKBB disease burden. These associations are mainly driven by CNVs at known GD CNV regions, whose pleiotropic effect on common diseases was broader than anticipated by our CNV-GWAS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results shed light on the prominent role of rare CNVs in determining common disease susceptibility within the general population and provide actionable insights for anticipating later-onset comorbidities in carriers of recurrent CNVs.

Phenotype integration improves power and preserves specificity in biobank-based genetic studies of major depressive disorder

Biobanks often contain several phenotypes relevant to diseases such as major depressive disorder (MDD), with partly distinct genetic architectures. Researchers face complex tradeoffs between shallow (large sample size, low specificity/sensitivity) and deep (small sample size, high specificity/sensitivity) phenotypes, and the optimal choices are often unclear. Here we propose to integrate these phenotypes to combine the benefits of each. We use phenotype imputation to integrate information across hundreds of MDD-relevant phenotypes, which significantly increases genome-wide association study (GWAS) power and polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction accuracy of the deepest available MDD phenotype in UK Biobank, LifetimeMDD. We demonstrate that imputation preserves specificity in its genetic architecture using a novel PRS-based pleiotropy metric. We further find that integration via summary statistics also enhances GWAS power and PRS predictions, but can introduce nonspecific genetic effects depending on input. Our work provides a simple and scalable approach to improve genetic studies in large biobanks by integrating shallow and deep phenotypes.

Dimensional and transdiagnostic phenotypes in psychiatric genome-wide association studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide biological insights into disease onset and progression and have potential to produce clinically useful biomarkers. A growing body of GWAS focuses on quantitative and transdiagnostic phenotypic targets, such as symptom severity or biological markers, to enhance gene discovery and the translational utility of genetic findings. The current review discusses such phenotypic approaches in GWAS across major psychiatric disorders. We identify themes and recommendations that emerge from the literature to date, including issues of sample size, reliability, convergent validity, sources of phenotypic information, phenotypes based on biological and behavioral markers such as neuroimaging and chronotype, and longitudinal phenotypes. We also discuss insights from multi-trait methods such as genomic structural equation modelling. These provide insight into how hierarchical 'splitting' and 'lumping' approaches can be applied to both diagnostic and dimensional phenotypes to model clinical heterogeneity and comorbidity. Overall, dimensional and transdiagnostic phenotypes have enhanced gene discovery in many psychiatric conditions and promises to yield fruitful GWAS targets in the years to come.

ADuLT: An efficient and robust time-to-event GWAS

Proportional hazards models have been proposed to analyse time-to-event phenotypes in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, little is known about the ability of proportional hazards models to identify genetic associations under different generative models and when ascertainment is present. Here we propose the age-dependent liability threshold (ADuLT) model as an alternative to a Cox regression based GWAS, here represented by SPACox. We compare ADuLT, SPACox, and standard case-control GWAS in simulations under two generative models and with varying degrees of ascertainment as well as in the iPSYCH cohort. We find Cox regression GWAS to be underpowered when cases are strongly ascertained (cases are oversampled by a factor 5), regardless of the generative model used. ADuLT is robust to ascertainment in all simulated scenarios. Then, we analyse four psychiatric disorders in iPSYCH, ADHD, Autism, Depression, and Schizophrenia, with a strong case-ascertainment. Across these psychiatric disorders, ADuLT identifies 20 independent genome-wide significant associations, case-control GWAS finds 17, and SPACox finds 8, which is consistent with simulation results. As more genetic data are being linked to electronic health records, robust GWAS methods that can make use of age-of-onset information will help increase power in analyses for common health outcomes.

Genetic insights into the age-specific biological mechanisms governing human ovarian aging

There is currently little evidence that the genetic basis of human phenotype varies significantly across the lifespan. However, time-to-event phenotypes are understudied and can be thought of as reflecting an underlying hazard, which is unlikely to be constant through life when values take a broad range. Here, we find that 74% of 245 genome-wide significant genetic associations with age at natural menopause (ANM) in the UK Biobank show a form of age-specific effect. Nineteen of these replicated discoveries are identified only by our modeling framework, which determines the time dependency of DNA-variant age-at-onset associations without a significant multiple-testing burden. Across the range of early to late menopause, we find evidence for significantly different underlying biological pathways, changes in the signs of genetic correlations of ANM to health indicators and outcomes, and differences in inferred causal relationships. We find that DNA damage response processes only act to shape ovarian reserve and depletion for women of early ANM. Genetically mediated delays in ANM were associated with increased relative risk of breast cancer and leiomyoma at all ages and with high cholesterol and heart failure for late-ANM women. These findings suggest that a better understanding of the age dependency of genetic risk factor relationships among health indicators and outcomes is achievable through appropriate statistical modeling of large-scale biobank data.

Age of onset and cumulative risk of mental disorders: a cross-national analysis of population surveys from 29 countries

BACKGROUND

Information on the frequency and timing of mental disorder onsets across the lifespan is of fundamental importance for public health planning. Broad, cross-national estimates of this information from coordinated general population surveys were last updated in 2007. We aimed to provide updated and improved estimates of age-of-onset distributions, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk.

METHODS

In this cross-national analysis, we analysed data from respondents aged 18 years or older to the World Mental Health surveys, a coordinated series of cross-sectional, face-to-face community epidemiological surveys administered between 2001 and 2022. In the surveys, the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured psychiatric diagnostic interview, was used to assess age of onset, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk of 13 DSM-IV mental disorders until age 75 years across surveys by sex. We did not assess ethnicity. The surveys were geographically clustered and weighted to adjust for selection probability, and standard errors of incidence rates and cumulative incidence curves were calculated using the jackknife repeated replications simulation method, taking weighting and geographical clustering of data into account.

FINDINGS

We included 156 331 respondents from 32 surveys in 29 countries, including 12 low-income and middle-income countries and 17 high-income countries, and including 85 308 (54·5%) female respondents and 71 023 (45·4%) male respondents. The lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 28·6% (95% CI 27·9-29·2) for male respondents and 29·8% (29·2-30·3) for female respondents. Morbid risk of any mental disorder by age 75 years was 46·4% (44·9-47·8) for male respondents and 53·1% (51·9-54·3) for female respondents. Conditional probabilities of first onset peaked at approximately age 15 years, with a median age of onset of 19 years (IQR 14-32) for male respondents and 20 years (12-36) for female respondents. The two most prevalent disorders were alcohol use disorder and major depressive disorder for male respondents and major depressive disorder and specific phobia for female respondents.

INTERPRETATION

By age 75 years, approximately half the population can expect to develop one or more of the 13 mental disorders considered in this Article. These disorders typically first emerge in childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood. Services should have the capacity to detect and treat common mental disorders promptly and to optimise care that suits people at these crucial parts of the life course.

FUNDING

None.

Germline mechanisms of immunotherapy toxicities in the era of genome-wide association studies

Cancer immunotherapy has revolutionized the treatment of advanced cancers and is quickly becoming an option for early-stage disease. By reactivating the host immune system, immunotherapy harnesses patients' innate defenses to eradicate the tumor. By putatively similar mechanisms, immunotherapy can also substantially increase the risk of toxicities or immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Severe irAEs can lead to hospitalization, treatment discontinuation, lifelong immune complications, or even death. Many irAEs present with similar symptoms to heritable autoimmune diseases, suggesting that germline genetics may contribute to their onset. Recently, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of irAEs have identified common germline associations and putative mechanisms, lending support to this hypothesis. A wide range of well-established GWAS methods can potentially be harnessed to understand the etiology of irAEs specifically and immunotherapy outcomes broadly. This review summarizes current findings regarding germline effects on immunotherapy outcomes and discusses opportunities and challenges for leveraging germline genetics to understand, predict, and treat irAEs.