Impacts of frailty on health care costs among community-dwelling older adults: A meta-analysis of cohort studies

The causal association between plasma caffeine and frailty: A two-sample mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Frailty is one of the most common and challenging consequences of aging, which negatively affects older adults, their families, and society. Caffeine has been shown to be associated with a reduced risk of frailty by observational studies, yet its causal relationship with frailty remains to be tested using more robust methods.

AIMS

This study aimed to explore the causal association between plasma caffeine and frailty using a two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis.

METHODS

Single nucleotide polymorphisms related to plasma caffeine concentrations were selected as instrumental variables. Data on the Frailty Index (FI) were sourced from the UK Biobank and TwinGen meta-analysis (n = 175,226), while data on the Fried Frailty Score (FFS) were obtained from the UK Biobank (n = 386,565). The causal association between plasma caffeine levels and frailty was tested using five MR methods, with the inverse-variance weighted method as the primary approach.

RESULTS

Our results consistently showed significantly negative associations between genetically predicted plasma caffeine with FI (β = -0.050, 95 % CI:0.077 to -0.023, P < 0.001) and FFS (β = -0.049, 95 % CI:0.064 to -0.034, P < 0.001). These results remained robust in further sensitivity analyses using a leave-one-out approach.

CONCLUSION

Our findings confirm a causal relationship between plasma caffeine and frailty and suggest that increasing plasma caffeine levels may help prevent and reduce the risk of frailty.

Cost of illness analysis of frailty for older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

The increasing burden of out-of-pocket expenses borne by older adults with frailty can be a considerable challenge in efforts toward improving societal health. This study estimated the cost of frailty for older adults by employing cost of illness theory.

METHODS

Five electronic databases were searched (without any language or year restriction) for relevant articles from their inception to April 2024. Studies investigating the cost of frailty and prefrailty for older adults (aged ≥ 60 years) were included.

RESULTS

A total of 51 studies were included. The findings revealed that frailty significantly increased mean total costs by US$3286 and US$4653 compared with the costs for individuals with prefrailty and robustness, respectively. The cost difference between the prefrailty and robust groups was US$2729. The increases in indirect costs did not significantly differ between the prefrailty and robust groups or between the frailty and robust groups. The total cost by setting was significantly increased in the frailty group relative to the prefrailty and robust groups. The results stratified by continent or region revealed that only the frailty and prefrailty groups in North America experienced significant increases in total costs relative to the robust group. However, in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, no significant results were noted.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first meta-analysis to employ cost of illness theory to investigate the cost of frailty. Our findings can help providers of health-care services and professional workers develop effective and comprehensive intervention plans and services that can be provided for older adults with frailty.

Dietary trajectories over 21 years and frailty in Norwegian older adults: the Tromsø Study 1994-2016

PURPOSE

To investigate the association between five dietary trajectories over 21 years and frailty in Norwegian older adults.

METHODS

This study used data from three surveys of the Tromsø Study. Diet was measured using food frequency questionnaires at baseline (Tromsø4, 1994-95), after 7 years (Tromsø5, 2001) and at the end of follow-up (Tromsø7, 2015-16). Survey-specific diet scores were constructed based on the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023 and group-based trajectory modelling was used to derive dietary trajectories. At follow-up, frailty was assessed with a 41-item frailty index. Linear regression analysis was performed to assess the associations between dietary trajectories and frailty, adjusted for baseline variables.

RESULTS

Among the 715 participants, 55% were women, with an average age of 54 years at baseline and 74 years at follow-up. The dietary trajectories 'moderately healthy' and 'healthy increase' were associated with a lower frailty index score at follow-up (β = -0.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.04, -0.002, β = -0.03, 95% CI = -0.06, -0.007), compared with the 'unhealthy' trajectory.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that maintaining a moderately healthy to very healthy diet from mid-life into older age is associated with a lower risk of frailty and supports the promotion of a healthy diet from adulthood to facilitate healthy ageing.

Retrospective, propensity score--matched study examining the relationship between frailty and Clostridioides difficile infection in a national cohort of US veterans

BACKGROUND

Frailty is often more predictive of disease and mortality compared with chronological age. This study determined the impact of frailty on Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) risk and outcomes in a national veteran population.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of CDI and control veteran inpatients and outpatients from fiscal year 2003 to 2018. Baseline frailty was presented as the Veterans Affairs (VA) Frailty Index. Propensity score--matched analyses were conducted to compare CDI risk, CDI health outcomes, and 1-year new-onset frailty-associated conditions.

RESULTS

A total of 11,451 CDI and 11,451 matched control patients were included. Baseline frailty conditions were more common among CDI patients, especially involuntary weight loss (6.0% vs 3.4%, P < .001) and anemia (24.6% vs 18.7%, P < .001). VA Frailty Index was significantly higher for CDI patients (0.13 vs 0.11, P = .019). Frail CDI patients were more likely to experience 30-day mortality (11.3% vs 1.1%, P < .001) and 60-day CDI recurrence (20.4% vs 16.3%, P < .001) compared with non-/prefrail CDI patients. At 1year, CDI patients were significantly more likely to be categorized as frail (19.6% vs 17.0%, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the potential association between frailty and CDI risk and health outcomes, as well as new-onset frailty diagnoses in patients who develop CDI.

The mitochondrial function of peripheral blood mononuclear cells in frail older patients

BACKGROUND

Frailty increases the incidence of geriatric syndromes and even the risk of death in old adults. However, the diagnostic criteria for frailty are inconsistent because of complex pathological processes and diverse clinical manifestations. To determine the effective biomarker and recognize frail status early, we investigated the correlation of mitochondrial morphology and function of human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) with frailty status in older adults.

METHODS

This Cross-sectional study followed 393 participants (aged 25-100 years, female 31.04 %) from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. The frailty status of subjects was assessed by the physical frailty phenotype (PFP) scale. We analyzed mitochondria functions including mitochondria copy number (mtDNAcn), the mRNA expressions of mitochondrial dynamics-related genes mitofusin 1(MFN1), mitofusin 2(MFN2), optic atrophy protein-1(OPA1), fission protein-1(FIS1) and dynamin-related protein 1(DRP1), mitochondrial oxidative respiration and reactive oxygen species(ROS) levels in PBMCs. Mitochondria morphology, size, and number were observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM).

RESULTS

After adjustment for sex and BMI, mtDNAcn, the mRNA expression of FIS1, mitochondrial respiratory function (proton leak, maximum oxygen consumption, and respiratory reserve) and ROS level were significantly correlated with age (P = 0.031, 0.030, 0.042, 0.003, 0.002, 0.022, respectively). After correcting for age, sex, and BMI, mtDNAcn and the mRNA expression of OPA1 were correlated with 4 m gait speed respectively (P = 0.003, 0.028, respectively). Compared with non-frail people, mtDNAcn, the mRNA expression of MFN1, mitochondrial basal respiration, proton leak, maximum oxygen consumption, ATP production and space capacity were significantly decreased in frail older adults (P = 0.013, 0.036, 0.026, 0.024, 0.012, 0.032, 0.020, respectively). ROS levels were significantly increased in the frail group (P = 0.016). Compared with non-frail people, the number, length, and perimeter, area of mitochondria were reduced in frail group under TEM (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Mitochondrial dysfunctions (decreased mtDNAcn, impaired mitochondrial morphology, imbalanced mitochondrial dynamic, impaired mitochondrial respiratory function, and increased ROS levels) were significantly correlated with frail status.

Impact of Frailty on Early Readmissions of Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography in the United States: Where Do We Stand?

Background/Objectives: We assessed the impact of frailty on outcomes of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in the United States. Methods: The National Readmission Database (2016-2020) was used to identify index and 30-day ERCP readmissions, which were categorized into low-frailty, intermediate-frailty, and high-frailty groups based on the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Outcomes were then compared. Results: Of 885,416 index admissions, 9.9% were readmitted within 30 days of ERCP. The odds of 30-day readmission were higher in the intermediate-frailty group (12.59% vs. 8.2%, odds ratio [OR] 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64-1.71, p < 0.001) and the high-frailty group (10.57% vs. 8.2%, OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.52-1.73, p < 0.001) compared to the low-frailty group. On readmission, a higher HFRS also increased mean length of stay (intermediate-frailty vs. low-frailty: 8.49 vs. 4.22 days, mean difference (MD) 4.26, 95% CI 4.19-4.34, p < 0.001; high-frailty vs. low-frailty: 10.9 vs. 4.22 days, MD 10.9 days, 95% CI 10.52-11.28, p < 0.001) and mean total hospitalization charges (intermediate-frailty vs. low-frailty: $118,996 vs. $68,034, MD $50,962, 95% CI 48, 854-53,069, p < 0.001; high-frailty vs. low-frailty: $195,584 vs. $68,034, MD $127,550, 95% CI 120,581-134,519, p < 0.001). The odds of inpatient mortality were also higher for the intermediate-frailty and high-frailty compared to the low-frailty subgroup. Conclusions: Frailty was associated with worse clinical outcomes after ERCP.

Frailty Indicator over the Adult Life Cycle as a Predictor of Healthcare Expenditure and Mortality in the Short to Midterm

BACKGROUND

Assessing frailty from middle age onward offers valuable insights into predicting healthcare expenditures throughout the life cycle.

OBJECTIVES

This paper examines the use of physical frailty as an indicator of healthcare demand across all age groups. The originality of this work lies in extending the analysis of frailty indicators beyond the typical focus on individuals under 50 years old to include those in mid-life and older.

METHODS

For this study, we used a database where frailty was measured in 2012 in a sample of individuals aged 15 to over 90. These individuals were tracked for their healthcare expenditures from 2012 to 2016.

RESULTS

Among the sample of 6928 individuals, frailty in 2012 resulted in a statistically significant increase in costs at the 5% level for the population aged 15 to 65. We applied multilevel linear regression models with year fixed effects, controlling for demographic factors, education level, precarity, social dimensions, lifestyle factors (e.g., vegetable consumption), physical activity, emotional well-being, and medical history. A Hausman test was conducted to validate the model choice. For mortality rate analysis, Cox models were used.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that physical frailty provides valuable information for understanding its impact on healthcare expenditure. The effect of frailty on mortality is particularly significant for the elderly population. Moreover, frailty is a predictor of healthcare costs not only in older adults but also across the entire life cycle.

Allocation and value of curative oncological treatment in frail and fit older patients with esophageal cancer: An observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The Value-Based Health Care (VBHC) model of care provides insights into patient characteristics, outcomes, and costs of care delivery that help clinicians counsel patients. This study compares the allocation and value of curative oncological treatment in frail and fit older patients with esophageal cancer in a dedicated VBHC pathway.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data was collected from patients with primary esophageal cancer without distant metastases, aged 70 years or older, and treated at a Dutch tertiary care hospital between 2015 and 2019. Geriatric assessment (GA) was performed. Outcomes included treatment discontinuation, mortality, quality of life (QoL), and physical functioning over a one-year period. Direct hospital costs were estimated using activity-based costing.

RESULTS

In this study, 89 patients were included with mean age 75 years. Of 56 patients completing GA, 19 were classified as frail and 37 as fit. For frail patients, the treatment plan was chemoradiotherapy and surgery (CRT&S) in 68% (13/19) and definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) in 32% (6/19); for fit patients, CRT&S in 84% (31/37) and dCRT in 16% (6/37). Frail patients discontinued chemotherapy more often than fit patients (26% (5/19) vs 11% (4/37), p = 0.03) and reported lower QoL after six months (mean 0.58 [standard deviation (SD) 0.35] vs 0.88 [0.25], p < 0.05). After one year, 11% of frail and 30% of fit patients reported no decline in physical functioning and QoL and survived. Frail and fit patients had comparable mean direct hospital costs (€24 K [SD €13 K] vs €23 K [SD €8 K], p = 0.82).

DISCUSSION

The value of curative oncological treatment was lower for frail than for fit patients because of slightly worse outcomes and comparable costs. The utility of the VBHC model of care depends on the availability of sufficient data. Real-world evidence in VBHC can be used to inform treatment decisions and optimization in future patients by sharing results and monitoring performance over time.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was retrospectively registered at the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR), trial number NL8107 (date of registration: 22-10-2019).

Community-based exercises improve health status in pre-frail older adults: A systematic review with meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pre-frailty is associated with increased healthcare utilization. Over the past decade, public health interventions such as community-based exercises to target pre-frailty have been increasingly studied. However, the effects of community-based exercises on clinical outcome measures amongst community-dwelling older adults with pre-frailty remain unclear. This review aims to better understand the effects of community-based exercise on physical function, cognition, quality of life and frailty status in community-dwelling pre-frail older adults. A secondary objective was to investigate the optimal exercise parameters on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Searches of MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases were conducted. Articles were included if they were randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and excluded if the participants consist of less than 50% pre-frail community-dwelling older adults. Meta-analyses (where possible) with either a fixed- or random- effect(s) model, standardized mean difference (SMD), odds ratio (OR) and tests of heterogeneity were performed. Multivariable meta-regression was performed to identify predictors of statistically significant outcome measures. The risk of bias was assessed using the modified Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool.

RESULTS

Twenty-two RCTs with 900 participants in the experimental group and 1015 participants in the control group were included. When compared to minimal intervention, community-based exercises significantly improved lower limb strength (10 RCTs, 384 participants in the experimental group and 482 participants in the control group) with SMD 0.67 (95% CI 0.29 to 1.04), and lower limb function (5 RCTs, 120 participants in the experimental group and 219 participants in the control group) with SMD 0.27 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.51). Those who have received community-based exercises were more likely to reverse from pre-frailty to healthy state (OR = 2.74, 95% CI 1.36 to 5.51) (6 RCTs, 263 participants in the experimental group and 281 participants in the control group). The frequency of exercise sessions was a significant predictor of the effect size for gait speed (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Community-based exercise intervention is superior to minimal intervention for improving health status in pre-frail older adults. This has implications on the implementation of community-based exercise intervention by healthcare providers and policymakers.

OTHER

Nil funding for this review. PROSPERO registration number CRD42022348556.

Outcomes associated with postoperative cognitive dysfunction: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) manifests as a subtle decline in cognition, potentially leading to unfavourable postoperative outcomes. We explored the impact of POCD on physical function, length of hospital stay (LOS), dementia and mortality outcomes.

METHODS

PubMed and Scopus were searched until May 2023. All studies of major surgical patients that assessed POCD and outcomes of interest were included. POCD effects were stratified by surgery type (cardiac and noncardiac) and time of POCD assessment (<30 and ≥30 days postsurgery).

RESULTS

Of 2316 studies, 20 met the inclusion criteria. POCD was not associated with functional decline postsurgery. Patients who experienced POCD postcardiac surgery had an increased relative risk (RR) of death of 2.04 [(95% CI: 1.18, 3.50); I2 = 0.00%]. Sensitivity analyses showed associations with intermediate-term mortality among noncardiac surgical patients, with an RR of 1.84 [(95% CI: 1.26, 2.71); I2 = 0.00%]. Patients who developed POCD <30 days postcardiac and noncardiac surgeries experienced longer LOS than those who did not [mean difference (MD) = 1.37 days (95% CI: 0.35, 2.39); I2 = 92.38% and MD = 1.94 days (95% CI: 0.48, 3.40); I2 = 83.29%, respectively]. Postoperative delirium (POD) may contribute to the heterogeneity observed, but limited data were reported within the studies included.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients undergoing cardiac and noncardiac surgeries who developed POCD <30 days postsurgery had poorer outcomes and an increased risk of premature death. Early recognition of perioperative neurocognitive disorders in at-risk patients may enable early intervention. However, POD may confound our findings, with further studies necessary to disentangle the effects of POD from POCD on clinical outcomes.

Validation of the Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four aging cohorts from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care

BACKGROUND

As global aging accelerates, routinely assessing the functional status and morbidity burden of older patients becomes paramount. The aim of this study is to assess the validity of the comprehensive clinical and functional Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four cohorts of older adults (60 + years) from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care (SNAC) spanning urban, suburban, and rural areas.

METHODS

The HAT integrates five health indicators (gait speed, global cognition, number of chronic diseases, and basic and instrumental activities of daily living), providing an individual-level score between 0 and 10. The tool was constructed using nominal response models, first separately for each cohort and then in a harmonized dataset. Outcomes included all-cause mortality over a maximum follow-up of 16 years and unplanned hospital admissions over a maximum of 3 years of follow-up. The predictive capacity was assessed through the area under the curve (AUC) using logistic regressions. For time to death, Cox regressions were performed, and Harrell's C-indices were reported. Results from the four cohorts were pooled using individual participant data meta-analysis and compared with those from the harmonized dataset.

RESULTS

The HAT demonstrated high predictive capacity across all cohorts as well as in the harmonized dataset. In the harmonized dataset, the AUC was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87) for 1-year mortality, 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.83) for 3-year mortality, 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.82) for 5-year mortality, 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.70) for 1-year unplanned admissions, and 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.70) for 3-year unplanned admissions. The Harrell's C for time-to-death throughout 16 years of follow-up was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

The HAT is a highly predictive, clinically intuitive, and externally valid instrument with potential for better addressing older adults' health needs and optimizing risk stratification at the population level.

Prevalence, perceptions, and experiences of frailty among older migrants from Low- and Middle-Income Countries to High Income Countries: A mixed method systematic review

BACKGROUND

Frailty is increasingly becoming a public health concern, especially among vulnerable populations. Older migrants from Low- and Middle-Income Countries to High Income Countries present with poorer health and are at increased risk of becoming frail. This review aims to explore the prevalence, perceptions, and experiences of frailty among older migrants from Low- and Middle-Income Countries to High Income Countries.

METHODS

This review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis. Five electronic databases were comprehensively searched for relevant literature published from January 1, 2000, to April 30, 2023. Quality appraisal for the quantitative studies was done with the Joanna Brigg's critical appraisal tool for analytic cross-sectional studies, and the qualitative studies were assessed with the Critical Appraisal Skill Program tool for qualitative studies.

RESULT

Seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Frailty was assessed using modified versions of the Frailty Phenotype and Frailty Index. The prevalence of frailty using the Frailty Phenotype was 16.6 %, and 17 % to 61.9 % according to the Frailty Index. The perceptions and experiences of frailty were characterised by chronic ill-health and a review of healthy pre-migration and early migration lives.

CONCLUSION

Despite the variation in frailty assessment methods, the high prevalence of frailty among older migrants was highlighted across the included studies. The perceptions and experiences of frailty reflect a state of resignation which can complicate the state of frailty. There is the need for ongoing research among migrant groups to identify their predisposition to frailty for early intervention.

Frailty as an Effect Modifier in Randomized Controlled Trials: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

The effect of clinical interventions may vary by patients' frailty status. Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity by frailty could lead to frailty-guided treatment strategies and reduce overtreatment and undertreatment. This systematic review aimed to examine the effect modification by frailty in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluate pharmacological, non-pharmacological, and multicomponent interventions.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and ClinicalTrial.gov, from their inception to 8 December 2023. Two reviewers independently extracted trial data and examined the study quality with senior authors.

RESULTS

Sixty-one RCTs that evaluated the interaction between frailty and treatment effects in older adults were included. Frailty was evaluated using different tools such as the deficit accumulation frailty index, frailty phenotype, and other methods. The effect of several pharmacological interventions (e.g., edoxaban, sacubitril/valsartan, prasugrel, and chemotherapy) varied according to the degree of frailty, whereas other treatments (e.g., antihypertensives, vaccinations, osteoporosis medications, and androgen medications) demonstrated consistent benefits across different frailty levels. Some non-pharmacological interventions had greater benefits in patients with higher (e.g., chair yoga, functional walking, physical rehabilitation, and higher dose exercise program) or lower (e.g., intensive lifestyle intervention, psychosocial intervention) levels of frailty, while others (e.g., resistance-type exercise training, moderate-intensive physical activity, walking and nutrition or walking) produced similar intervention effects. Specific combined interventions (e.g., hospital-based disease management programs) demonstrated inconsistent effects across different frailty levels.

DISCUSSION

The efficacy of clinical interventions often varied by frailty levels, suggesting that frailty is an important factor to consider in recommending clinical interventions in older adults.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration number CRD42021283051.

Genetically supported causality between gut microbiota and frailty: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Background

A mounting body of evidence suggests a strong connection between gut microbiota and the risk of frailty. However, the question of causality remains unanswered. In this study, we employed a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to assess potential causal relationships between gut microbiota and the risk of frailty.

Materials and methods

Summary statistics for the gut microbiome were obtained from a genome wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of the MiBioGen consortium (N = 18,340). Summary statistics for frailty were obtained from a GWAS meta-analysis, including the UK Biobank and TwinGene (N = 175,226). Our primary analysis utilized the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method. To enhance the robustness of our results, we also applied weighted median methods, MR Egger regression, and MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier test. Finally, we conducted reverse MR analysis to investigate the potential for reverse causality.

Results

IVW method identified 7 bacterial taxa nominally associated with the risk of FI. Class Bacteroidia (p = 0.033) and genus Eubacterium ruminantium group (p = 0.028) were protective against FI. In addition, class Betaproteobacteria (p = 0.042), genus Allisonella (p = 0.012), genus Bifidobacterium (p = 0.013), genus Clostridium innocuum group (p = 0.036) and genus Eubacterium coprostanoligenes group (p = 0.003) were associated with a higher risk of FI. No pleiotropy or heterogeneity were found.

Conclusion

The MR analysis indicates a causal relationship between specific gut microbiota and FI, offering new insights into the mechanisms underlying FI mediated by gut microbiota.

[Effect of frailty in health resource use in aged cancer patients]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of frailty on health resource use in aged population with cancer.

METHOD

Population-based cohort study with retrospective data collection and follow-up from January 2018 to December 2019 in people ≥65 years with cancer.

RESULTS

Overall, 996 individuals were included, with a prevalence of frailty of 22.1%. Mortality at 2 years was 14.1% in the frail and 9.0% in the non-frail (p=0.028). Independently of age and sex, frailty increased the number of urgent hospitalizations (168%) and planned hospitalizations (64%), visits to the emergency room (111%), outpatient consultations (59%), day hospital sessions (30%) and visits to primary care (114%).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is more prevalent, determines a poorer prognostic and is associated with higher health resource use in aged population with cancer.

Application of the (fr)AGILE scale in the evaluation of multidimensional frailty in elderly inpatients from internal medicine wards: a cross-sectional observational study

Background

With the rapid growth of an aging global population and proportion, the prevalence of frailty is constantly increasing. Therefore, finding a frailty assessment tool suitable for clinical application by physicians has become the primary link in the comprehensive management of frailty in elderly patients. This study used the (fr)AGILE scale to investigate the frailty status of elderly patients from internal medicine wards and identified relevant factors that affect the severity of frailty.

Method

In this study, 408 elderly inpatients in internal medicine departments of Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from May 2021 to August 2022 were enrolled as research subjects, and a cross-sectional observational study was conducted. Researchers evaluated the frailty based on the (fr)AGILE scale score. The general condition, past medical history, physical examination, laboratory examination, nutrition control score, intervention and treatment measures and other elderly patient information was collected. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relevant factors that affect the severity of frailty and hospitalization costs.

Results

According to the (fr)AGILE scale score, the elderly patients were divided into groups to determine whether they were frail and the severity of the frailty. Among them, 164 patients were in the prefrailty stage, which accounted for 40.2%. There were 188 cases of mild frailty that accounted for 46.1%, and 56 cases of moderate to severe frailty that accounted for 13.7%. Decreased grip strength, elevated white blood cell levels, and low sodium and potassium are independent risk factors affecting the severity of frailty. As the severity of frailty increases, the proportion of sodium, potassium, albumin supplementation as well as anti-infection gradually increases.

Conclusion

Frailty is a common elderly syndrome with a high incidence among elderly patients in internal medicine departments. The main manifestations of frailty vary with different severity levels. Inflammation, anemia, and poor nutritional status can lead to an increase in the severity of frailty as well as blood hypercoagulability, myocardial damage, and additional supportive interventions. This ultimately leads to prolonged hospitalization and increased hospitalization costs.

Gut microbiome and frailty: insight from genetic correlation and mendelian randomization

Observational studies have shown that the gut microbiome is associated with frailty. However, whether these associations underlie causal effects remains unknown. Thus, this study aimed to assess the genetic correlation and causal relationships between the genetically predicted gut microbiome and frailty using linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) and Mendelian Randomization (MR). Summary statistics for the gut microbiome were obtained from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of the MiBioGen consortium (N = 18,340). Summary statistics for frailty were obtained from a GWAS meta-analysis, including the UK Biobank and TwinGene (N = 175,226). We used LDSC and MR analyses to estimate the genetic correlation and causality between the genetically predicted gut microbiome and frailty. Our findings indicate a suggestive genetic correlation between Christensenellaceae R-7 and frailty. Moreover, we found evidence for suggestive causal effects of twelve genus-level gut microbes on frailty using at least two MR methods. There was no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy or heterogeneity in the MR analysis. This study provides suggestive evidence for a potential genetic correlation and causal association between several genetically predicted gut microbes and frailty. More population-based observational studies and animal experiments are required to clarify this association and the underlying mechanisms.

Functional fitness trends among older adults in Portugal between 2008 and 2018: Keeping up with a healthy aging process

OBJECTIVES

Maintaining a healthy aging process is vital to combating and delaying the adverse health outcomes faced by the growing older adult population, where a key aspect to achieving healthy aging is the preservation of functional fitness. This study aims to present trends on the functional fitness of Portuguese older adults between 2008 and 2018 and build new normative reference standards for the Senior Fitness Battery Tests.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Functional fitness was measured with the Senior Fitness Battery Tests in two national representative cohorts of the Portuguese older adult population (≥65 years) using the 2008 (n = 4712) and 2018 (n = 2717) surveys. Changes were assessed according to sex and age group. Sex and age-group normative fitness scores were developed.

RESULTS

Overall findings suggested that older adults' point prevalence for arm-curl, 8-ft up-and-go, and 30-s chair sit-to-stand remained stable between 2008 and 2018, with declining trends being observed for the 6-min walk and back-scratch tests. However, results for trends varied when stratified by sex and age categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest a trend toward a stabilization of most of the functional fitness tests over the past decade, but with a critical decline in the 6-min walk test. Thus, this test should be targeted by future health-care policies. Moreover, this investigation provides new and updated normative reference standards for the Senior Fitness Battery Tests that should be used as a tool to promote a healthy aging process among Portuguese older adults.

The prevalence of frailty and its relationship with sociodemographic factors, regional healthcare disparities, and healthcare utilization in the aging population across India

Objective

To estimate frailty prevalence and its relationship with the socio-economic and regional factors and health care outcomes.

Methods

In this study, participants from the harmonized Diagnostic Assessment of Dementia for the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI-DAD) were included. The frailty index (FI) was calculated using a 32-variable deficit model, with a value of ≥ 25% considered as frail. Data on demographic (including caste and religion) and socioeconomic profiles and health care utilization were obtained. The state-wise health index maintained by the government based on various health-related parameters was used to group the participants' residential states into high-, intermediate-, and low-performing states. Multivariable and zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to assess the relationship of frailty index with sociodemographic characteristics, health index, and health care expenditure or hospitalization.

Results

Among the 3953 eligible participants, the prevalence of frailty was 42.34% (men = 34.99% and women = 49.35%). Compared to high-performing states, intermediate- and low-performing states had a higher proportion of frail individuals (49.7% vs. 46.8% vs. 34.5%, P < 0.001). In the adjusted analysis, frailty was positively associated with age, female sex, rural locality, lower education level, and caste (scheduled caste and other backward classes). After adjusting for the socio-economic profile, FI was inversely associated with the composite health index of a state (P < 0.001). FI was also significantly correlated with total 1-year health care expenditure and hospitalization (P < 0.001 and 0.020, respectively).

Conclusion

There is a high prevalence of frailty among older Indian adults that is associated with sociodemographic factors and regional health care performance. Furthermore, frailty is associated with increased health care utilization and expenditure.

Objective assessment of the association between frailty and sedentary behavior in older adults: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Given the inconsistent findings of the association between frailty and sedentary behavior in older adults, this cross-sectional study investigated the aforementioned association using four different frailty criteria and two sedentary behavior indices in older adults.

METHODS

Data from older adults (age ≥ 65 y) who participated in health examinations or attended outpatient integrated clinics at a medical center in Taipei, Taiwan, were collected. Frailty was measured using the modified Fried Frailty Phenotype (mFFP), Clinical Frailty Scale in Chinese Translation (CFS-C), Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) index, and Clinical Frailty-Deficit Count (CF-DC) index; sedentary behavior was assessed with a waist-worn accelerometer. Adjusted linear regression ascertained the association between frailty and both sedentary behavior outcomes.

RESULTS

Among the 214 participants (mean age 80.82 ± 7.14 y), 116 were women. The average total sedentary time and number of sedentary bouts were 609.74 ± 79.29 min and 5.51 ± 2.09 times per day, respectively. Frail participants had a longer total sedentary time (odds ratio [OR]: 30.13, P = .01 and 39.43, P < .001) and more sedentary bouts (OR: 3.50 and 5.86, both P < .001) on mFFP and CFS-C assessments, respectively. The SOF index revealed more sedentary bouts among frail than in robust participants (OR: 2.06, P = .009), without a significant difference in the total sedentary time. Frail participants defined by the CF-DC index were more likely to have frequent sedentary bouts (OR: 2.03, P = .016), but did not have a longer total sedentary time.

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of the frailty criteria adopted, frailty was positively associated with the number of sedentary bouts per day in older adults. A significant correlation between frailty and total sedentary time was detected only with mFFP and CFS-C indices. Further research may target decreasing the sedentary bouts in older adults as a strategy to improve frailty.

Fish intake and pre-frailty in Norwegian older adults - a prospective cohort study: the Tromsø Study 1994-2016

BACKGROUND

Pre-frailty is an intermediate, potentially reversible state before the onset of frailty. Healthy dietary choices may prevent pre-frailty. Fish is included in most healthy diets, but little is known about the association between long-term habitual fish intake and pre-frailty. We aimed to elucidate the longitudinal association between the frequency of fish intake and pre-frailty in a cohort of older adults in Norway.

METHODS

4350 participants (52% women, ≥65 years at follow-up) were included in this prospective cohort study. Data was obtained from three waves of the population-based Tromsø Study in Norway; Tromsø4 (1994-1995), Tromsø6 (2007-2008) and Tromsø7 (follow-up, 2015-2016). Frailty status at follow-up was defined by a modified version of Fried's phenotype. Fish intake was self-reported in the three surveys and assessed as three levels of frequency of intake: low (0-3 times/month), medium (1-3 times/week) and high (≥ 4 times/week). The fish-pre-frailty association was analysed using multivariable logistic regression in two ways; (1) frequency of intake of lean, fatty and total fish in Tromsø6 and pre-frailty at follow-up, and (2) patterns of total fish intake across the three surveys and pre-frailty at follow-up.

RESULTS

At follow-up, 28% (n = 1124) were pre-frail. Participants with a higher frequency of lean, fatty and total fish intake had 28% (odds ratio (OR) = 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53, 0.97), 37% (OR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.43, 0.91) and 31% (OR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.52, 0.91) lower odds of pre-frailty 8 years later compared with those with a low intake, respectively. A pattern of stable high fish intake over 21 years was associated with 41% (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.38, 0.91) lower odds of pre-frailty compared with a stable low intake.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher frequency of intake of lean, fatty and total fish, and a pattern of consistent frequent fish intake over time, were associated with lower odds of pre-frailty in older community-dwelling Norwegian adults. These results emphasise the important role of fish in a healthy diet and that a frequent fish intake should be promoted to facilitate healthy ageing.

Social participation and incident disability and mortality among frail older adults: A JAGES longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Frailty is the highest risk factor for incident disability and mortality. Social participation is a modifiable factor for reducing adverse outcomes among independent older adults. However, the association between social participation and incident disability and mortality among frail older adults remains unclear. Therefore, we examined the association between various social activities and incident disability and mortality.

METHODS

This nationwide prospective cohort study (The Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study) recruited older adults with frailty, aged 65 years and older (N = 9090) who were followed up for 6 years (2010-2016). We examined incident disability and all-cause mortality at the end of the follow-up period. Frailty was assessed using the Kihon Checklist. The independent variable was social participation in 2010, grouped into the following seven categories: hobby groups, sports groups or clubs, volunteer groups, senior citizens' clubs, industries, neighborhood communities, and paid work.

RESULTS

The incidence of disability among participants was 19.5% (1770) and that of mortality was 19.2% (1753). Belonging to sports groups or clubs (Hazard Ratios [HR] = 0.74; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.57, 0.98) or hobby groups (HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.60, 0.98) was significantly associated with a lower risk of incident disability. Meanwhile, hobby groups (HR = 0.68; 95% CI = 0.56, 0.83), sports groups or clubs (HR = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.57, 0.88), volunteer groups (HR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.54, 0.88), and senior citizens' club (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.61, 0.90) were associated with lower risk of incident mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Social participation was associated with a lower risk of incident disability and mortality, not only in healthy older adults but also in frail older adults who are at higher risk of incident disability and mortality. This suggests that frail older adults should be encouraged to participate in all the seven types of social participation examined in this study, as this may lower the risk of subsequent disability and mortality.

Effective primary care attenuates the association between frailty and hospital admission in old age: the ELSI-Brazil

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a multidimensional syndrome leading to a higher hospitalization. However, few studies explicitly analyze whether measures of effective primary care modify the relationship between frailty and hospital admission.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included data from the second wave of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil), a representative community-based study with older adults aged 50 years and over, conducted in 2019-2021. Self-reported hospital admission in the past 12 months was the outcome. Frailty included the 5 phenotypic criteria: weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, weakness, and slowness. The effective primary care index included 12 attributes indicators, continuously. Statistical analyzes comprised logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among the 7,436 study participants, frailty (odds ratio [OR] 2.17; 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] 1.31-3.62) and effective primary care index (OR 1.10; 95% CI 1.03-1.16) were positively associated with higher hospitalization. Interaction revealed that while effective primary care was positively associated with hospitalization, this association was different among frail older adults (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.65-0.99). After stratification by frailty status, positive association with hospitalization remained only among prefrail and nonfrail individuals. The predicted probability of hospitalization tended to decrease along with higher primary care index values among frail older adults and became similar to prefrail/nonfrail at the highest end of the scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective primary care decreases the likelihood of hospital admission among frail older adults. Interventions for delaying frailty should be initiated in primary care along with policies to strengthen primary care's organizational and provider/team-level attributes.

Health care utilization and potentially preventable adverse outcomes of high-need, high-cost middle-aged and older adults: Needs for integrated care models with life-course approach

PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH

The success of modern health care increases life expectancy and prolongs the days of having multimorbidity and functional limitations; the so-defined "high need, high cost (HNHC)" state represents the extreme scenarios of care burden and complexity. This study aims to explore health care utilization and the risk of preventable adverse outcomes stratified by age and HNHC state.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Health Insurance (NHI) database. People aged ≥40 years were included and further stratified by age (middle-aged: 40-64 and older adults: 65) and HNHC state (top 10% of spending). Health care utilization and drug consumption across different groups were obtained. The multimorbidity frailty index (mFI) was developed for further analysis. Cox regression models were used to examine the associations between HNHC and adverse clinical outcomes (preventable hospitalizations, preventable emergency department visits, and mortality).

RESULTS

HNHC participants were older, had a higher mFI and drug consumption, and had higher health care utilization. Compared with non-HNHC participants, HNHC participants exhibited a 4.4-fold and 2.4-fold higher risk of preventable hospitalizations in middle-aged (HR=4.41; 95% CI, 4.17-4.65, p<0.01) and older adults (HR=2.44; 95% CI, 2.34-2.55, p<0.01). Similar risks were observed for preventable emergency department visits and mortality (all p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The HNHC state substantially increased health care utilization, polypharmacy, and potentially preventable adverse outcomes after adjustment for frailty. Intervention studies developing integrated care models using the life-course approach are needed to improve the quality of health care systems in super-aged societies.

Frail community-dwelling older persons' everyday lives and their experiences of rehabilitation - a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The number of older persons with frailty is increasing, and rehabilitation to improve the consequences of frailty are important for both the individual and society. However, the perspective of older persons themselves in research and planning of interventions is scarce.

AIM

The aim of this study was to describe frail older persons' everyday lives and their experiences and views of rehabilitation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Twenty older persons were interviewed, and analyses were performed using a qualitative content analysis method.

RESULTS

The two main categories were 'Frailty impacts everyday lifé and 'Experiences and perceptions of rehabilitation'. The participants described that they had to adapt their everyday lives in line with their health conditions. They all used strategies and were dependent on support in their activities of daily living. Their social network had decreased. All participants strived to stay active and independent, and wanted rehabilitation and support from professionals, experiencing decreased access to rehabilitation.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Frail older persons are a vulnerable group who often need support in everyday life. There is room for improvement when it comes to helping frail older persons to stay active and facilitate participation in both individual and group interventions.

Pet Insects May Improve Physical Performance and Sleep in Community-Dwelling Frail Elderly People with Chronic Diseases: A Single-Arm Interventional Pilot Study

Purpose

Animal-assisted intervention (AAI) is an effective intervention that improves the mental and physical health. However, few have examined the efficacy of pet insects as a form of AAI for prefrail and frail elderly. This study aimed to ascertain the effects of pet insects on physical performance and psychological health in community-dwelling frail elderly individuals with a chronic disease.

Patients and Methods

This study was an 8 week prospective single-arm interventional pilot study that enrolled prefrail and frail community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and older, all of whom had a chronic disease and attended a daycare facility. Pet insects and appropriate equipment were provided, and supporting programs were used to educate participants about how to rear the insects and how to get close to them. Pre- and post-interventional physical and psychological functions were evaluated.

Results

A total of 23 subjects (mean age, 82.78 years) were enrolled in the final analysis. The timed up-and-go-test (TUG) was used to measure functional mobility, and grip strength was used as a measure of muscle strength; both showed significant changes after the 8-week intervention (Δ = -0.35±0.73 sec, P = 0.034; and Δ = 0.73±0.99 kg, P = 0.002, respectively). In addition, the insomnia severity index (ISI) and average sleep duration improved significantly (Δ = -2.91±5.64, P = -0.021; and Δ = 0.87±1.98, P = 0.047, respectively). There were no significant changes in the results of other psychometric tests. Logistic regression analysis using the forward stepwise selection method revealed that the baseline ISI score and the absence of other comorbidities were significantly associated with the probability of positive changes in both the TUG and HS tests after the intervention.

Conclusion

Pet insects may be an effective and easily applicable type of AAI, which improves physical function and sleep in prefrail and frail elderly individuals.

Frailty in community-dwelling older adults: reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Gérontopôle frailty screening tool

BACKGROUND

Recognizing frailty had a great importance in countries with an increasing geriatric population. The study aims to evaluate the reliability and validation of the Gérontopôle frailty screening tool (GFST), which was developed to screen frailty in the community-dwelling older adults, for the Turkish population.

METHODS

In this crosssectional study, participants who applied to the geriatrics outpatient clinic of a university hospital were included. Comprehensive geriatric assessments of all patients were performed. The validity of the GFST was tested by its concordance with the FRAIL scale. Test-retest and interrater reliability analyses were made.

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients were included in the study. Sixty-one and five-tenths percent (n = 59) of them are females. The median age was 72.0 (IQR: 10.0). There was a moderate concordance between the GFST and the FRAIL scale (Cohen's kappa: 0.566, p < 0.001). The Gérontopôle frailty screening tool interrater and retest reliabilities were excellent (Cohen's kappa: 0.814, p < 0.001 and 1.0, p < 0.001; respectively). The sensitivity of the GFST determined according to the FRAIL scale is 69.39%, the specificity is 86.36%, the positive predictive value is 85.00%, and the negative predictive value is 71.70%.

DISCUSSION

The Gérontopôle frailty screening tool, which can be used by all healthcare professionals, is a valid and reliable tool for the Turkish geriatric population.

Relative Sit-to-Stand Muscle Power Predicts an Older Adult's Physical Independence at Age of 90 Yrs Beyond That of Relative Handgrip Strength, Physical Activity, and Sedentary Time: A Cross-sectional Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Muscle power is important for an older adult's physical independence and can be easily estimated using the sit-to-stand test. This investigation aimed to assess whether muscle power estimated using the sit-to-stand test could identify older adults at risk of losing physical independence beyond handgrip strength, physical activity, and sedentary time and to develop minimal sit-to-stand power thresholds.

DESIGN

Physical independence was assessed cross-sectionally in older adults using a composite physical function questionnaire. Muscle power was calculated using the 30-sec sit-to-stand test. Muscle strength was determined using a handgrip dynamometer. Physical activity and sedentary time were assessed by accelerometry. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess the independent association between sit-to-stand power and projected physical independence ( n = 737). Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to develop sit-to-stand power cut points ( N = 1748).

RESULTS

Sit-to-stand power proved to be the best predictor of physical independence in later life regardless of handgrip strength, physical activity, and sedentary time (standardized B = 0.45, -0.02, 0.12, -0.28, respectively). Sex- and age-specific cutoffs for sit-to-stand power had good discriminatory ability (area under the curve = 0.75-0.78 [women], 0.76-0.82 [men]).

CONCLUSIONS

Sit-to-stand power can be used as a simple and practical screening tool to assess an older adult's future physical independence.

Groningen Frailty Indicator-Chinese (GFI-C) for pre-frailty and frailty assessment among older people living in communities: psychometric properties and diagnostic accuracy

Background

The early identification of pre-frailty and frailty among older people is a global priority because of the increasing incidence of frailty and associated adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to validate the Groningen Frailty Indicator-Chinese (GFI-C), a widely used screening instrument, and determine the optimal cut-off value in Chinese communities to facilitate pre-frailty and frailty screening.

Methods

This methodological study employed a cross-sectional and correlational design to examine the psychometric properties of GFI-C, namely, internal consistency, stability, and concurrent and construct validities. The appropriate cut-off values for pre-frailty and frailty screening in the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve were determined through sensitivity and specificity analysis.

Results

A total of 350 community older people had been assessed and interviewed by a nurse. The GFI-C showed satisfactory internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.87) and two-week test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficient = 0.87). Concurrent validity (r = 0.76, p < 0.001) showed a moderate correlation with Fried’s frailty phenotype. The known-groups method, hypothesis testing and confirmatory factory analysis (three-factor model; χ²/df = 2.87, TLI = 0.92, CFI = 0.93, GFI = 0.92, RMR = 0.014; RMSEA = 0.073) were suitable for the establishment of construct validity. Based on the ROC and Youden’s index, the optimal cut-off GFI-C values were 2 (sensitivity, 71.5%; specificity, 84.7%) for pre-frailty and 3 for frailty (sensitivity, 88.2%; specificity, 79.6%).

Conclusions

The result indicated that GFI-C is a reliable and valid instrument for pre-frailty and frailty screening among older Chinese people in communities. For optimal diagnostic accuracy, the cut-off values of 3 for frailty and 2 for pre-frailty are recommended.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03437-1.

Exercise and Nutritional Intervention for Physical Function of the Prefrail: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The aim is to inspect the effects of exercise and nutritional intervention on prefrail older adults' physical function.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42021261197).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized controlled trials involving prefrail older adults who received exercise and/or nutritional interventions.

METHODS

Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, Clinical Trials, and PubMed were searched from inception to September 1, 2021. Primary outcomes were physical function, including physical performance, mobility, and grip strength. The short physical performance battery score and chair sit-to-stand test were used to assess the physical performance. Timed up and go and gait speed were applied to assess the mobility. Secondary outcomes were frailty status, weight, body mass index, Barthel index, and quality of life (Euro quality of life 5 dimension index values).

RESULTS

We included 16 randomized controlled trials comprising 1199 prefrail older adults (intervention group, n = 593; control group, n = 606). Exercise and nutritional interventions significantly improved the short physical performance battery score [n = 5, mean difference 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21‒1.42, I² = 62%], handgrip strength (n = 7, mean difference 1.52, 95% CI 0.70‒2.34, I² = 6%), and gait speed (n = 4, standard weighted mean difference -1.06, 95% CI -1.87 to -0.25, I² = 89%). There were no significant differences among the chair sit-to-stand test, timed up and go, weight, body mass index, and Barthel index.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Our systematic review and meta-analysis shows that the receipt of exercise and nutritional intervention significantly improved physical function in prefrail older adults.

The comparative analysis of SARIMA, Facebook Prophet, and LSTM for road traffic injury prediction in Northeast China

Objective

This cross-sectional research aims to develop reliable predictive short-term prediction models to predict the number of RTIs in Northeast China through comparative studies.

Methodology

Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Facebook Prophet (Prophet) models were used for time series prediction of the number of RTIs inpatients. The three models were trained using data from 2015 to 2019, and their prediction accuracy was compared using data from 2020 as a test set. The parameters of the SARIMA model were determined using the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF). The LSTM uses linear as the activation function, the mean square error (MSE) as the loss function and the Adam optimizer to construct the model, while the Prophet model is built on the Python platform. The root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to measure the predictive performance of the model.

Findings

In this research, the LSTM model had the highest prediction accuracy, followed by the Prophet model, and the SARIMA model had the lowest prediction accuracy. The trend in medical expenditure of RTIs inpatients overlapped highly with the number of RTIs inpatients.

Conclusion

By adjusting the activation function and optimizer, the LSTM predicts the number of RTIs inpatients more accurately and robustly than other models. Compared with other models, LSTM models still show excellent prediction performance in the face of data with seasonal and drastic changes. The LSTM can provide a better basis for planning and management in healthcare administration.

Implication

The results of this research show that it is feasible to accurately forecast the demand for healthcare resources with seasonal distribution using a suitable forecasting model. The prediction of specific medical service volumes will be an important basis for medical management to allocate medical and health resources.

Association of socioeconomic status measures with physical activity and subsequent frailty in older adults

Background

Despite increased recognition, frailty remains a significant public health challenge.

Objective

we aimed to assess the role of education and income, as well as neighborhood socioeconomic status, on physical activity and subsequent frailty in older adults.

Methods

Using a population-based cohort of older adults, this study examined the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) factors, physical activity and frailty. The study included 1,799 participants (mean [SD], 74.6 (6.2), 53.3% female) from the "National Health and Nutrition Survey of Older Adults Aged 65 and Over in Israel", conducted in 2005–2006. A follow-up interview was performed 12–14 years later in a subgroup of 601 subjects (mean [SD], age 84[4]; 56% women). Self-reported leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) was measured at both baseline and follow-up. SES measures were assessed at baseline. Frailty was measured at follow-up, using the Fried's Phenotype Model.

Results

All SES measures were strongly and positively associated with LTPA (all p < 0.001). Eighty-two participants (14%) were classified as frail at follow-up. After age and sex adjustment and accounting for attrition bias using inverse probability weighting, baseline LTPA (OR = 2.77, 95% CI: 1.57–4.90, for inactivity; OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 0.75–2.68, for insufficient activity, compared with sufficient activity, P_trend < 0.001) was inversely associated with incident frailty. The association persisted after further adjustment for SES and comorbidity.

Conclusion

Among older individuals, multiple SES measures were positively associated with LTPA, which was a strong predictor of lower subsequent frailty risk.

Use and Prescription of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Older and Frail Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Multidisciplinary Consensus Document

In the last twelve years the clinical management of patients with atrial fibrillation has been revolutionised by the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants. Despite the large amount of evidence produced, some populations remain relatively poorly explored regarding the effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants, such as the oldest and/or frailest individuals. Frailty is clinical syndrome characterized by a reduction of functions and physiological reserves which results in individuals having higher vulnerability. While current evidence underlines a relationship between atrial fibrillation and frailty, particularly in determining a higher risk of adverse outcomes, data regarding effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants in frailty atrial fibrillation patients are still lacking, leaving uncertainty about how to guide prescription in this specific subgroup. On these premises, this multidisciplinary consensus document explains why it would be useful to integrate the clinical evaluation performed through comprehensive geriatric assessment to gather further elements to guide prescription of direct oral anticoagulants in such a high-risk group of patients.

Catastrophic Health Expenditure Associated With Frailty in Community-Dwelling Chinese Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Analysis

Background: Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) represents a key indicator for excessive financial burden due to out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare costs, which could push the household into poverty and is highly pronounced in households with members at an advanced age. Previous studies have been devoted to understanding the determinants for CHE, yet little evidence exists on its association with frailty, an important geriatric syndrome attracting growing recognition. We thus aim to examine the relationship between frailty and CHE and to explore whether this effect is moderated by socioeconomic-related factors. Methods: A total of 3,277 older adults were drawn from two waves (2011 and 2013) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). CHE was defined when OOP healthcare expenditure exceeded a specific proportion of the capacity of the household to pay. Frailty was measured following the Fried Phenotype (FP) scale. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were employed to assess the longitudinal relationship between frailty and CHE, and stratification analyses were conducted to explore the moderation effect. Results: The incidence of CHE among Chinese community-dwelling older adults was 21.76% in 2011 and increased to 26.46% in 2013. Compared with non-frail individuals, prefrail or frail adults were associated with higher odds for CHE after controlling for age, gender, residence, education, marriage, income, health insurance, smoking, drinking, and comorbidity (prefrail: odds ratio (OR) = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.14-1.52; frail: OR = 1.67, 95%CI = 1.13-2.47). Three frailty components including weakness, exhaustion, and shrinking contributed to a significantly increased likelihood of CHE (all p < 0.05), while the other two components including slowness and inactivity showed a non-significant effect (all p > 0.05). Similar effects from frailty on CHE were observed across socioeconomic-related subgroups differentiated by gender, residence, education, household income, and social health insurance. Conclusions: Frailty is a significant predictor for CHE in China. Developing and implementing cost-effective strategies for the prevention and management of frailty is imperative to protect households from financial catastrophe.

Symptoms Based on Deficiency Syndrome in Traditional Chinese Medicine Might Be Predictor of Frailty in Elderly Community Dwellers

BACKGROUND

The most widely used frailty phenotype and frailty indexes are either time-consuming or complicated, thus restricting their generalization in clinical practice; and therefore, an easier and faster screening tool is needed to be developed.

OBJECTIVE

To select sensitive symptoms in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and study whether they can improve the risk prediction of frailty.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study enrolling 2249 Chinese elderly community dwellers. Data were collected via face-to-face inquiries, anthropometric measurements, laboratory tests, and community health files. Frailty was the main outcome measure, and it was evaluated by Fried's frailty phenotype (FP). The ordinal logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with frailty. The risk assessment plot was used to compare the discriminative ability for frailty among models with and without TCM symptoms.

RESULTS

The identified sensitive influential factors for frailty included age, education level, dietary habits, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, cerebral infarction, osteoporosis, cold limbs, lethargy and laziness in speaking and moving, weakness of lower limbs, slow movement, dry mouth and throat, and glazed expression. The risk prediction for "frailty cumulative components ≥1" was not significantly increased, while for "frailty cumulative components ≥2", a new model developed with the above selected TCM symptoms had a higher AUC than the baseline model without it (0.79 VS 0.81, P=0.002). And the NRI and IDI for the new model were 41.4% (P=0.016) and 0.024% (P=0.041), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This research might provide an easier and faster way for early identification and risk prediction of frailty in elderly community dwellers.

Digital Biomarkers of Physical Frailty and Frailty Phenotypes Using Sensor-Based Physical Activity and Machine Learning

Remote monitoring of physical frailty is important to personalize care for slowing down the frailty process and/or for the healthy recovery of older adults following acute or chronic stressors. Taking the Fried frailty criteria as a reference to determine physical frailty and frailty phenotypes (slowness, weakness, exhaustion, inactivity), this study aimed to explore the benefit of machine learning to determine the least number of digital biomarkers of physical frailty measurable from a pendant sensor during activities of daily living. Two hundred and fifty-nine older adults were classified into robust or pre-frail/frail groups based on the physical frailty assessments by the Fried frailty criteria. All participants wore a pendant sensor at the sternum level for 48 h. Of seventeen sensor-derived features extracted from a pendant sensor, fourteen significant features were used for machine learning based on logistic regression modeling and a recursive feature elimination technique incorporating bootstrapping. The combination of percentage time standing, percentage time walking, walking cadence, and longest walking bout were identified as optimal digital biomarkers of physical frailty and frailty phenotypes. These findings suggest that a combination of sensor-measured exhaustion, inactivity, and speed have potential to screen and monitor people for physical frailty and frailty phenotypes.