Recent HCV genotype changing pattern in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan; is it pointing out a forthcoming problem?

HCV extinction analysis in district Gujrat, Pakistan by using SARIMA and linear regression models

BACKGROUND

To investigate the track of Gujrat, a District of Pakistan is very essential, either it follow-up World Health Organization (WHO) Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination plan or not. This study aimed to find out HCV extinction analysis by time series forecast from District Gujrat, Pakistan.

METHODS

From January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020 total n-5,111 numbers of HCV real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests were performed in Gujrat. For extinction analysis we used 2 different models, the first model was seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the second linear regression (LR) model. First, we fitted both models then these fitted and valid models were used to predict future HCV percentage in District Gujrat.

RESULTS

In District Gujrat, the men HCV infected ratio is high with a higher viral load as compared with women, from year 2016 to 2020 male to female ratio was (53.75:53.19), (45.67:43.84), (39.67:39.36), (41.94:35.88), (37.70:31.38) respectively. HCV percentage is decreasing from 2016 to 2020 with an average of 4.98%. Our both fitted models SARIMAX (0,1,1)(0,1,1,6) at 95% confidence intervals and LR model Y = -0.379 X + 53.378 at 99% confidence intervals (P-value = .00) revealed that in June 2029 and in August 2027 respectively HCV percentage will be 0 from district Gujrat, Pakistan.

CONCLUSIONS

This study concluded that both SARIMA and LR models showed an effective modeling process for forecasting yearly HCV incidence. District Gujrat, Punjab, Pakistan is on track to achieve the WHO HCV elimination plan, before 2030 HCV will be extinct from this region.

Prevalence of active HCV infection and genotypic distribution among the general population of district Mardan, Pakistan

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the serious global public health burden of liver disease. Approximately 170 million people in the world are infected with (HCV). In Pakistan, where the disease has high occurrence rate. The present study envisages an up-to-date prevalence of HCV and genotypic distribution in the general population of Mardan District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan. The blood samples from 6,538 individuals including 3,263 males and 3,275 females were analyzed for hepatitis C surface antigen by Immuno-chromatographic test (ICT), Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (PCR). It was found that 396 (12.13%) out of 3263 individuals contained antibodies in their blood against HCV, while among the different age groups, the highest incidences of HCV antibodies were found in the 31-40 age group (11.01%). The ICT positive samples were further screened by nested PCR to determine the existence of active HCV-RNA. It was identified that 7.11% (3263) of the total population (6538) tested was positive, among which the 461 (14.07%) females possessed antibodies in their blood against HCV. Our data showed total HCV infection in the investigated population was 5.78%. Higher percentage of HCV prevalence was detected in males than females in the age group 31-40 and 41-50. To compare the prevalence of HCV genotypes age-wise in male and female genotype 3a was found most prevalent genotype followed by 1a, 2a and 3b, respectively.

Distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes in Punjab region, Pakistan, based on a study of 4177 specimens

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a heterogenetic infectious agent that affects a huge proportion of population around the globe. Diverse distribution of multiple subtypes of HCV makes it mandatory and remarkably imperative to understand the genotypic distribution in target population. It could serve as an indictive guideline for the improvement of diagnostic methodologies, and development of effective therapies against this viral infection, in order to improve the infected patients' quality of life. This study included HCV infected patients presented to the diagnostic facility of the Centre for Applied Molecular Biology, University of Punjab, Lahore, between 2016 and 2019. During the 4 years of study, samples were collected from 4177 subjects. Our data revealed no significant differences regarding the prevalence of various genotypes between genders in the adult population. Genotyping was carried out by following the Ohno protocol. The obtained results shown that genotype 3a is the most frequent genotype and accounts for 66.29% of cases. Among other genotypes, 1a is 2.11%, 1b is 0.07%, 3b is 1.89%, 5a is 0.02%, while genome of 28.23% patients was untypable; 1.22% of the samples were non-detectable as viremic. An important concern is that this untypable genome in HCV infected patients may indicate possible mutation of HCV.

Prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus Genotypes in Pakistan: Current Scenario and Review of Literature

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major public health concern globally, resulting in liver-related complications. Approximately 6% population of Pakistan is infected with HCV. HCV is error prone, due to which it is classified into 7 genotypes and 67 subtypes. HCV genotype determination is critical for treatment and therapy response. In this study, 3,539 samples were collected from 2015 to 2019 from all over Punjab. RNA was extracted from samples using QIA Amp Viral RNA MINI kit (Qiagen, Germany) and viral genotyping was performed. Furthermore, a systemized literature search (2009-2018) was done to analyze the HCV genotype distribution pattern in Pakistan. In Punjab, genotype 3a (86.46%) is most prevalent, followed by untypable (7.17%) and genotype 1a (3.84%) and 3b (1.04%). Mixed genotype constitutes only 0.67% of total infections. Genotype 2a, 2b, 3c, and 4 were found to be rare. Data available from literature review when compiled showed that HCV genotype 3a (58.16%) was predominant in Pakistan, followed by genotypes 3b (9.05%), 2a (6.70%), 1a (6.22%), and 1b (2.39%). The frequency of mixed genotypes was found to be 4% and 12% of untypable HCV variants. This study highlights the HCV genotype distribution pattern in different regions of Pakistan. Therapy response and disease management depend on genotype, so HCV genotype determination is crucial. In Pakistan, the most prevalent genotype is 3a, followed by untypable genotype. Both interferon and sofosbuvir are effective against genotype 3a, but treatment with sofosbuvir has comparatively high sustained virological response, less adverse effects, and more tolerability.

Prevalence and Treatment of Untypable HCV Variants in Different Districts of Punjab, Pakistan

In Pakistan, around 11 million people are infected with, at least, six circulating genotypes and subtypes of hepatitis C virus (HCV). The viral burden is still on rise. HCV genotype determination is necessary to devise appropriate antiviral therapy. Previous reports highlight the prevalence circulating untypable (in diagnostic perspectives) HCV subtype in local Pakistani patients. Present study was designed to investigate the epidemiological distribution of genotypes in different districts of Punjab, Pakistan and focuses on prevalence of diagnostically untypable subtype and its possible antiviral therapy. A total of 8,353 HCV patients were included through 2011 to 2016 for determination of HCV prevalent genotypes in the local community. HCV genotyping was carried out using Ohno et al. method, and five cases of diagnostically untypable patients were treated with interferon-based antiviral regimen to find the possible treatment strategy. Of the 8,353 patients, the genotype 3a (n = 6,650, 79.6%) was most significantly prevalent throughout the study period followed by undetermined genotype that is, untypable (n = 1,377, 16.5%). The presence of untypable variants suggested that there are some novel or quasi species prevailing among HCV patients in local community. Five HCV patients infected with untypable genotype had been treated effectively with interferon alpha plus ribavirin therapy for 24 weeks at standard doses and achieved sustained virological response. This study highlighted an important aspect of HCV treatment for local Pakistani HCV patients. Untypable HCV variants could be treated with interferon-based antiviral regimens such as 3a genotype. The study raises the need of characterization of diagnostically untypable HCV variant. On the basis of these results, it can be proposed that until the availability of pangenotypic direct-acting antiviral for HCV treatment in Pakistan, interferon-based antiviral regimens will be of choice for majority of patients infected with 3a or untypable genotypes.

Hepatitis C Virus and Interferon-Free Antiviral Therapeutics Revolution: Implications for Pakistan

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major health concern worldwide as a leading cause of liver-related mortalities and morbidities. Pakistan ranks second among countries with endemic HCV infection; ∼11 million cases are reported so far. HCV burden is continuously rising in Pakistan, mainly because of unsafe blood transfusions, surgical procedures, dental procedures, untrained clinicians, reuse of syringes, barbers, and ear/nose piercing tools. Lack of awareness about HCV transmission routes among the general and high-risk population is a major hurdle in disease management. HCV prevalence in the general population and healthy blood donors ranges from 3.13% to 23.83% and from 1.05% to 20.8%, respectively; whereas in the high-risk groups, HCV prevalence is up to 66%. Genotype 3 is most prevalent in Pakistan followed by genotypes 1 and 2 along with an alarming number of untypable viral genotypes in the local community. Mainly interferon-based antiviral regimens are used in Pakistan and are quite effective, because the major prevalent genotype (genotype 3) showed the best sustained virological response (SVR) with it. But a large number of individuals did not show SVR either because of infection with nonresponder genotypes or because of side effects. Due to these reasons, there was a need for interferon-free direct acting antivirals (DAAs). Recently, Sovaldi (Sofosbuvir: NS5B inhibitor) is approved on a heavy discounted rate for Pakistan; it is currently in effective use and showed good SVR. Sovaldi plus ribavirin is used alone or along with interferon to treat different viral genotypes. Sovaldi will be the future treatment regime for Pakistan, because genotype 2 and genotype 3 infected individuals achieve the best SVR with it. For the treatment of other prevalent viral genotypes, approval of some other DAAs such as Ledipasvir on discounted price is required for better disease management.

Predictive potential of IL-28B genetic testing for interferon based hepatitis C virus therapy in Pakistan: Current scenario and future perspective

In Pakistan which ranked second in terms of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, it is highly needed to have an established diagnostic test for antiviral therapy response prediction. Interleukin 28B (IL-28B) genetic testing is widely used throughout the world for interferon based therapy prediction for HCV patients and is quite helpful not only for health care workers but also for the patients. There is a strong relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms at or near the IL-28B gene and the sustained virological response with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment for chronic hepatitis C. Pakistan is a resource limited country, with very low per capita income and there is no proper social security (health insurance) system. The allocated health budget by the government is very low and is used on other health emergencies like polio virus and dengue virus infection. Therefore it is proposed that there should be a well established diagnostic test on the basis of IL-28B which can predict the antiviral therapy response to strengthen health care set-up of Pakistan. This test once established will help in better management of HCV infected patients.