A Scoring System to Determine Patients' Risk of Colectomy Within 1 Year After Hospital Admission for Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

Factors Associated With Response to Rescue Therapy in Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency for which colectomy is required in patients who do not respond to rescue therapy. While previous studies have predominantly focused on predicting outcome to first-line corticosteroid therapy, there is a need to understand the factors associated with response to rescue therapies in order to improve clinical outcomes. We reviewed the evidence regarding factors associated with response to rescue therapy in adults with ASUC and identified future directions for research.

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was conducted, and 2 reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion.

RESULTS

Of 3509 records screened, 101 completed studies were eligible for inclusion. We identified 42 clinical, hematological, biochemical, endoscopic, or pharmacological factors associated with response to rescue therapy. Older age (≥50 years), thiopurine experience, and cytomegalovirus or Clostridioides difficile infection were associated with a higher risk of nonresponse to rescue therapy. Biochemical factors associated with poorer response included an elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥30mg/L on admission, hypoalbuminemia and an elevated ratio of CRP to albumin. Severe endoscopic findings, including a Mayo endoscopic score of 3 or Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity ≥5, portended poorer outcomes. The role of fecal calprotectin and therapeutic value of measuring infliximab drug levels in ASUC remain to be defined.

CONCLUSIONS

Response to rescue therapy can be predicted by several specific factors, which would aid clinical decision-making. Existing and emerging factors should be integrated within predictive and prognostic models to help improve clinical outcomes.

Predicting Outcome after Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis: A Contemporary Review and Areas for Future Research

Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis (ASUC) is a severe form of ulcerative colitis relapse which requires hospitalization and intensive medical intervention to avoid colectomy. The timely recognition of patients at risk of corticosteroid failure and the early initiation of medical rescue therapy are paramount in the management of ASUC. The choice of medical rescue therapy is influenced by multiple factors, especially patient's prior treatment history. This decision should involve the patient and ideally a multidisciplinary team of healthcare professionals, including gastroenterologists, radiologists, surgeons and enterostomal therapists. Although several predictive models have been developed to predict corticosteroid failure in ASUC, there is no single validated tool that is universally utilized. At present, infliximab and cyclosporine are the only agents systematically evaluated and recommended for medical rescue therapy, with recent reports of off-label utilization of tofacitinib and upadacitinib in small case series. The available evidence regarding the efficacy and safety of these oral small molecules for ASUC is insufficient to provide definitive recommendations. Early decision-making to assess the response to medical rescue therapy is essential, and the decision to pursue surgery in the case of treatment failure should not be delayed.

Ustekinumab for anti-tumor necrosis factor refractory pediatric ulcerative colitis: a promising approach towards endoscopic healing

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To describe the role of ustekinumab in inducing remission and endoscopic healing in anti-tumor necrosis factor α nonresponsive pediatric ulcerative colitis patients at a tertiary care inflammatory bowel disease center.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was performed on patients with ulcerative colitis receiving ustekinumab. Primary outcome was steroidfree clinical remission at follow-up. Secondary outcomes were biochemical remission and endoscopic healing.

RESULTS

Ten children were analyzed; 7 (70%) had ulcerative colitis, and 3 (30%) had inflammatory bowel disease unspecified with colitis. Median follow-up period was 56 weeks. Nine patients (90%) achieved steroid-free clinical remission and biochemical remission. Seven patients had follow-up colonoscopies, out of which 6 (86%) achieved endoscopic remission, while 1 (14%) underwent colectomy. Out of the 3 patients without a follow-up colonoscopy, fecal calprotectin levels downtrended to < 150 mg/kg in 2 patients and < 400 mg/kg in 1 patient from baseline level of > 2,000 mg/kg.

CONCLUSIONS

Ustekinumab appears efficacious in achieving not only clinical and biochemical remission but also has promising role in inducing endoscopic healing end point in patients who fail other biologics.

Focal loss of mural stratification as a radiological predictor for small bowel adenocarcinoma in Crohn's disease

AIM

Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) are at higher risk of small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA). We aimed to identify radiological predictors of SBA in CD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective case-control study at two tertiary inflammatory bowel disease centers and identified CD patients diagnosed with SBA between 2003 and 2019. Patients were matched with up to four controls. Pre-operative imaging (magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or computed tomography (CT)) were reviewed by three gastrointestinal radiologists.

RESULTS

Nineteen patients with CD-associated SBA with a mean age of 54.9 and 32 matched controls were included. Mean length of small bowel involvement was 216 (± 188) mm in the SBA group versus 156 (± 167) mm in the control group (p = 0.76). Only 11.8 % of cases had a diagnosis of SBA made preoperatively. In univariate analysis, focal loss of mural stratification (odds ratio [OR], 11; 95%CI, 2.43-49.5, p = 0.002), and wall thickening (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.05-1.66, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with SBA. After adjustment, focal loss of mural stratification was the only independent risk factor (OR, 11; 95 % CI, 2.43-49.5, p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Focal loss of mural stratification was identified as a predictor of CD-associated SBA, which should be described in imaging reports and further validated.

Systematic Review: Outcome Prediction in Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

Background and Aims

Approximately 1 in 4 patients with ulcerative colitis experiences a severe exacerbation of disease requiring hospitalization, termed acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC). These episodes pose a major burden on patients with ulcerative colitis and early prediction of their outcomes based on clinical data is crucial to optimize therapy.

Methods

A systematic review was performed using Embase and Medline for articles between 2000 and 2023. Studies obtained from the databases were uploaded on Covidence for screening by 2 independent reviewers. Quality appraisal for each study was done using the Critical Appraisals Skills Program depending on study design.

Results

A total of 48 eligible studies were included in the review. The key predictors of ASUC identified in this review included clinical, endoscopic, and radiographic biomarkers, which were summarized. The main outcomes assessed in the studies were intravenous corticosteroid failure, need for rescue therapy, and need for colectomy. Score-based predictions and some novel markers were also included in the results.

Conclusion

Utilization of evidence-based predictors of outcome in ASUC could serve as a powerful tool in customizing therapeutic measures and a step forward toward personalized patient care. Despite promising candidates, there remains a significant opportunity to identify and test additional clinical and laboratory-based predictors, especially early in the hospitalization and as the clinical practice and medical therapies evolve.

Systematic review: Scores used to predict outcomes in acute severe ulcerative colitis

Predictive scores for ASUC outcomes according to time of application.

CRAB score for prediction of colectomy within 2 years following admission for acute severe ulcerative colitis

Background

The Oxford and Swedish indexes were developed to predict in-hospital colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC), but not long-term prediction, and all these indexes were based on Western data. Our study aimed to analyze the predictors of colectomy within 3 years of ASUC in an Indian cohort and derive a simple predictive score.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary health care center in South India over a period of 5 years. All patients admitted with ASUC were followed up for a period of 24 months after the index admission, to look for progression to colectomy.

Results

A total of 81 (47 male) patients were included in the derivation cohort. Fifteen (18.5%) patients required colectomy during a follow-up period of 24 months. On regression analysis, C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin were independent predictors of 24-month colectomy. The CRAB (CRP + AlBumin) score was obtained by multiplying coefficient of beta to albumin and CRP (CRAB score = CRP x 0.2 - Albumin x 0.26). The CRAB score demonstrated an AUROC of 0.923 and a score of >0.4 with a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 92% for the prediction of 2-year colectomy following ASUC. The score was validated in a validation cohort of 31 patients, and at >0.4, the score had a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 96% in predicting colectomy.

Conclusion

CRAB score is a simple prognostic score that can predict 2-year colectomy in ASUC patients with high sensitivity and specificity.

Nutrition, Nutritional Status, Micronutrients Deficiency, and Disease Course of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

During the disease course, most Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients present a condition of malnutrition, undernutrition, or even overnutrition. These conditions are mainly due to suboptimal nutritional intake, alterations in nutrient requirements and metabolism, malabsorption, and excessive gastrointestinal losses. A suboptimal nutritional status and low micronutrient serum levels can have a negative impact on both induction and maintenance of remission and on the quality of life of Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients. We performed a systematic review including all the studies evaluating the connection between nutrition, nutrition status (including undernutrition and overnutrition), micronutrient deficiency, and both disease course and therapeutic response in Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients. This systematic review was performed using PubMed/MEDLINE and Scopus. Four main clinical settings concerning the effect of nutrition on disease course in adult Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients were analyzed (induction of remission, maintenance of remission, risk of surgery, post-operative recurrence, and surgery-related complications). Four authors independently reviewed abstracts and manuscripts for eligibility. 6077 articles were found; 762 duplicated studies were removed. Out of 412 full texts analyzed, 227 were included in the review. The evidence summarized in this review showed that many nutritional aspects could be potential targets to induce a better control of symptoms, a deeper remission, and overall improve the quality of life of Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients.

In-hospital management of inflammatory bowel disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The management of hospitalized patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is complex. Despite considerable therapeutic advancements in outpatient ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease management, the in-hospital management continues to lag with suboptimal outcomes. The purpose of this review is to provide a brief overview of our approach to managing patients hospitalized with acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) and Crohn's disease-related complications, followed by a summary of emerging evidence for new management approaches.

RECENT FINDINGS

ASUC has seen the emergence of well validated prognostic models for colectomy as well as the development of novel treatment strategies such as accelerated infliximab dosing, Janus kinase inhibitor therapy, and sequential therapy, yet the rate of colectomy for steroid-refractory ASUC has not meaningfully improved. Crohn's disease has seen the development of better diagnostic tools, early Crohn's disease-related complication stratification and identification, as well as better surgical techniques, yet the rates of hospitalization and development of Crohn's disease-related complications remain high.

SUMMARY

Significant progress has been made in the in-hospital IBD management; however, both the management of ASUC and hospitalized Crohn's disease remain a challenge with suboptimal outcomes. Critical knowledge gaps still exist, and dedicated studies in hospitalized patients with IBD are needed to address them.

Low prevalence of Clostridioides difficile infection in acute severe ulcerative colitis: A retrospective cohort study from northern India

BACKGROUND

The incidence of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is high in ulcerative colitis and is associated with disease flares and adverse outcomes. However, the data on the dynamics of CDI in patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is rather scarce. We evaluated the prevalence of CDI in patients with ASUC.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained cohort admitted to the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, India, from May 2016 to December 2021, included patients with ASUC (as per Truelove and Witts criteria) who were tested for CDI. CDI testing was performed using enzyme-linked immunoassay for toxins A and B. Risk factors for developing CDI were analyzed along with short-term outcomes of ASUC. Steroid failure was defined as the need for medical rescue therapy or colectomy.

RESULTS

Total 153 patients with ASUC were included (mean age 34.92 ± 12.24 years; males 56.2%; disease duration 36 (IQR: 16-55.5) months, pancolitis 67.3%). Ninety-eight (63.4%), 72 (47%) and 10 (6.5%) patients, respectively, had received steroids, azathioprine and biologics in the past. Forty patients (26.14%) had a prior history of ASUC. Among risk factors for CDI, 14% of the patients had prior admission within 30 days, 22.2% had a recent history of antibiotics and 3.9% had long-term non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug intake. Only one sample was positive for Clostridioides difficile toxin assay. Tissue Cytomegalovirus DNA-PCR positivity was noted in 57 patients (37.3%). Fifty-seven patients (37.3%) had steroid failure, 35 required medical rescue therapy and 30 (19.6%) required colectomy (eight after medical rescue therapy failure).

CONCLUSION

Despite antecedent risk factors for CDI, the overall prevalence of CDI in ASUC was low and the outcomes were determined by underlying disease severity.

Early management of acute severe UC in the biologics era: development and international validation of a prognostic clinical index to predict steroid response

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine whether changes in acute severe colitis (ASC) management have translated to improved outcomes and to develop a simple model predicting steroid non-response on admission.

DESIGN

Outcomes of 131 adult ASC admissions (117 patients) in Oxford, UK between 2015 and 2019 were compared with data from 1992 to 1993. All patients received standard treatment with intravenous corticosteroids and endoscopic disease activity scoring (Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS)). Steroid non-response was defined as receiving medical rescue therapy or surgery. A predictive model developed in the Oxford cohort was validated in Australia and India (Gold Coast University Hospital 2015-2020, n=110; All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi 2018-2020, n=62).

RESULTS

In the 2015-2019 Oxford cohort, 15% required colectomy during admission vs 29% in 1992-1993 (p=0.033), while 71 (54%) patients received medical rescue therapy (27% ciclosporin, 27% anti-tumour necrosis factor, compared with 27% ciclosporin in 1992-1993 (p=0.0015). Admission C reactive protein (CRP) (false discovery rate, p=0.00066), albumin (0.0066) and UCEIS scores (0.015) predicted steroid non-response. A four-point model was developed involving CRP of ≥100 mg/L (one point), albumin of ≤25 g/L (one point), and UCEIS score of ≥4 (1 point) or ≥7 (2 points). Patients scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the validation cohorts had steroid response rates of 100, 75.0%, 54.9%, 18.2% and 0%, respectively. Scoring of ≥3 was 84% (95% CI 0.70 to 0.98) predictive of steroid failure (OR 11.9, 95% CI 10.8 to 13.0). Colectomy rates in the validation cohorts were were 8%-11%.

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency colectomy rates for ASC have halved in 25 years to 8%-15% worldwide. Patients who will not respond to corticosteroids are readily identified on admission and may be prioritised for early intensification of therapy.

Tofacitinib Salvage Therapy for Children Hospitalized for Corticosteroid- and Biologic-Refractory Ulcerative Colitis

OBJECTIVES

Colectomy rates following acute severe ulcerative colitis have plateaued around 20% despite intravenous corticosteroid and intensified anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) biologic dosing. Recent studies have shown tofacitinib to provide additional benefit in further decreasing colectomy rates among hospitalized adult patients with corticosteroid- and anti-TNF-nonresponsive ulcerative colitis. Pediatric data describing the effectiveness of tofacitinib for this indication does not yet exist. We aimed to describe the treatment courses and colectomy-free survival among pediatric patients treated with tofacitinib while hospitalized for refractory ulcerative colitis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective single-center cohort study of consecutive hospitalized pediatric patients initiating tofacitinib for refractory ulcerative colitis from 2018 to 2021. The primary outcome was 90-day colectomy-free survival. Secondary outcomes included colectomy-free clinical remission, corticosteroid independence, colectomy-free tofacitinib drug-persistence, tofacitinib-related adverse events, and postoperative complications. Baseline characteristics and details of the timing and positioning of therapies utilized during hospitalization were described. Outcomes were described using counts, percentages, and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

Eleven patients met inclusion criteria. All patients demonstrated nonresponse to both intravenous corticosteroids and anti-TNF therapy prior to tofacitinib initiation. Median hospitalization length was 22 days and mean maximum pediatric ulcerative colitis activity index during hospitalization was 68. Eight of 11 patients remained colectomy-free at 90 days following hospital admission and 6 remained colectomy-free over median 182-day follow-up, including 4 of whom remained on tofacitinib.

CONCLUSIONS

Tofacitinib may represent a new treatment option for hospitalized pediatric patients with corticosteroid- and anti-TNF-nonresponsive ulcerative colitis. Future research is essential in determining the optimal positioning of these therapies.

Impact of thiopurines and tumour necrosis factor antagonists on primary sclerosing cholangitis outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at risk of biliary tract cancer and liver damage (possibly leading to liver transplantation), and are often treated for IBD with thiopurines and/or tumour necrosis factor antagonists (anti-TNF) on a long-term basis.

AIMS

To assess the risk of biliary tract cancer and liver transplantation in patients exposed to thiopurines and/or anti TNF agents in a French nationwide cohort.

METHODS

We performed a population-based study of patients aged 18 years or older with PSC and IBD in the French national health insurance database. Patients were followed from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The risks of biliary tract cancer and liver transplantation associated with thiopurines and anti-TNF exposure were assessed with marginal structural Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for baseline demographics and comorbidities, and time-varying medications and PSC activity.

RESULTS

Among the 1929 patients with PSC and IBD included, 37 biliary tract cancers and 83 liver transplantations occurred. Compared with patients not exposed to thiopurines or anti-TNF agents, patients exposed to thiopurines (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-2.82) or anti-TNF agents (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.13-2.80) had no excess risk of biliary tract cancer. Similarly, patients exposed to thiopurines (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.30-1.48) or anti-TNF agents (HR, 0.68; CI, 0.22-2.09) had no excess risk of liver transplantation.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with PSC and IBD who are exposed to thiopurines or anti-TNF agents are not at excess risk of biliary tract cancer or liver transplantation.

Comparison of 1-Year Colectomy Risk Between the US and Korean Patients with Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

BACKGROUND

Colectomy risk after acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) has not been compared between Eastern and Western countries. We compared the 1-year colectomy risk after ASUC between Korea and the USA.

METHODS

Data on patients admitted for ASUC to five tertiary referral hospitals in Korea and Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, the USA, between January 2015 and January 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. For comparability between groups, a 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was performed. The primary outcome was colectomy, and secondary outcomes were mortality, readmission, and venous thromboembolism (VTE) within 1-year of the index admission for ASUC. The risk of each outcome was compared using Cox proportional hazards model in pre-matched cohort and Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test in post-matched cohort.

RESULTS

290 ASUC patients were included in the study (121 Korea, 169 the USA). After PSM, 56 patients were selected in each group with no significant differences in baseline variables. At 1 year after ASUC, colectomy was less common in Korea than in the USA [3 (5.4%) vs. 24 (42.9%), p < 0.001]. The cumulative colectomy risk was significantly higher in the USA than in Korea in pre-matched cohort [adjusted hazard ratio 7.89, 95% confidence interval 3.23 to 19.22] and in post-matched cohort (log-rank p < 0.001), while there was no difference in cumulative risk of mortality, readmission, and VTE.

CONCLUSION

Colectomy risk within 1 year of ASUC is significantly higher in the USA than in Korea. We observed no differences in mortality, readmission, and VTE between the two groups.

Prospective validation of AIIMS index as a predictor of steroid failure in patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND

Optimal outcomes in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) are related to time-bound management based upon early prediction of response to intravenous (IV) steroids. In an earlier study, we described the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) index (baseline Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity [UCEIS] ≥ 7 and day 3 fecal calprotectin [FCP] > 1000 μg/g) for predicting failure of IV steroids. The current study is designed to validate this index in a prospective cohort.

METHODS

IV steroid-naïve patients with ASUC, satisfying Truelove and Witts' criteria, hospitalized from August 2018 to July 2019 were included. Patients' assessment included baseline sigmoidoscopy, day 1 and 3 FCP, hemogram, biochemistry and day 3 C-reactive protein. All patients received IV steroids, and the primary outcome was steroid failure, defined as the need for colectomy or rescue therapy with cyclosporine (CYC)/infliximab (IFX) during admission.

RESULTS

Of the 47 patients, eight were excluded (four received steroids outside, two were directly taken for surgery/infliximab therapy, one had toxic megacolon, and one had infectious colitis), and 39 patients were included (mean age: 36.1 ± 12.6 years, male: 31%). Fifteen patients (38%) failed IV steroid and required rescue therapy (IFX: 9, CYC: 2, Colectomy: 3, IFX followed by colectomy: 1). On univariate analysis, UCEIS ≥ 7 at baseline (p = 0.006), day 1 FCP (p = 0.03), day 3 FCP > 1000 μg/g (p = 0.001), Oxford criteria (p = 0.04) and AIIMS index (p < 0.001) were significantly different between steroid responders and steroid failures. On multivariate analysis, day 3 FCP > 1000 μg/g (odds ratio (odds ratio (OR)= 6.4;(95% CI =2.2-196.1) and baseline UCEIS ≥ 7 (OR) = 10.1;(95% CI = 2.1-80.2) were independent predictors. The AIIMS index predicted steroid failure with a better specificity (100% vs. 83%, p = 0.04) and positive predictive value (100% vs. 64%, p = 0.03) than Oxford criteria.

CONCLUSION

AIIMS index has been validated in 39 prospective ASUC patients as an effective early predictor of steroid failure (sensitivity = 53%, specificity = 100%).

Long-Term Risk of Colectomy in Patients with Severe Ulcerative Colitis Responding to Intravenous Corticosteroids or Infliximab

Background and aims: Intravenous corticosteroids (IVCS) and rescue therapy with infliximab (IFX) are useful for managing patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC). However, nearly one fifth of responders undergo colectomy. Predictive factors of colectomy in this subset of patients are not fully known. We retrospectively examined the long-term risk and the predictors of colectomy in ASUC patients achieving clinical remission following treatment with IVCS or IFX. Patients and methods: Clinical and demographic characteristics were evaluated in consecutive ASUC patients who were admitted to the “Tor Vergata University” hospital between 2010 and 2020 and responded to IVCS or IFX. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to identify independent predictors of colectomy. Results: A total of 116 ASUC patients responding to IVCS (98 patients) or IFX (18 patients) were followed up for a median of 46 months. After discharge, 29 patients (25%) underwent colectomy. Multivariate analysis showed that a serum albumin level <3 g/dL and colonic dilation >5.5 cm on admission were independent predictors of colectomy (OR: 6.9, 95% CI: 2.08−22.8, and OR 8.5, 95% CI: 1.23−58.3, respectively). Patients with both these factors had a risk of colectomy 13 times greater than those with no risk factor. Conclusions: A low serum albumin level and colonic dilation are risk factors of long-term colectomy in ASUC patients responding to IVCS or IFX.

A Clinical Predictive Model for One-year Colectomy in Adults Hospitalized for Severe Ulcerative Colitis

Background

Models to predict colectomy in ulcerative colitis (UC) are valuable for identification, clinical management, and follow-up of high-risk patients. Our aim was to develop a clinical predictive model based on admission data for one-year colectomy in adults hospitalized for severe UC.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients hospitalized at a tertiary academic center for management of severe UC from 1/2013 to 4/2018. Multivariate regression was performed to identify individual predictors of one-year colectomy. Outcome probabilities of colectomy based on the prognostic score were estimated using a bootstrapping technique.

Results

Two hundred twenty-nine individuals were included in the final analytic cohort. Four independent variables were associated with one-year colectomy which were incorporated into a point scoring system: (+) 1 for single class biologic exposure prior to admission; (+) 2 for multiple classes of biologic exposure; (+) 1 for inpatient salvage therapy with cyclosporine or a TNF-alpha inhibitor; (+) 1 for age <40. The risk probabilities of colectomy within one year in patients assigned scores 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 9.4% (95% CI, 1.7-17.2), 33.7% (95% CI, 23.9-43.5), 58.5% (95% CI, 42.9-74.1), 75.0% (95% CI, 50.5-99.5). An assigned score of zero was a perfect predictor of no colectomy.

Conclusion

Risk factors most associated with one-year colectomy for severe UC included: prior biologic exposure, need for inpatient salvage therapy, and younger age. We developed a simple scoring system using these variables to identify and stratify patients during their index hospitalization.

Treatment of acute severe ulcerative colitis

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a potentially life-threatening medical emergency. Due to the increasing incidence of ulcerative colitis in recent years, ASUC has become increasingly common in clinical practice. Presently, corticosteroids remain the first choice, whose efficacy should be evaluated after 3 d. If unsatisfactory, it should be switched to infliximab or cyclosporine salvage treatment timely. Besides, colectomy may be an option when medical treatment is ineffective or serious complications occur. This review describes the current treatment regimens for ASUC, with an aim to help develop treatment plans and improve the prognosis and life quality of patients with ASUC .

High mucosal cytomegalovirus DNA helps predict adverse short-term outcome in acute severe ulcerative colitis

Background/Aims

Predictors of short-term outcome of intravenous (IV) steroid therapy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) have been well described, but the impact of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection as a predictor of outcome remains debatable. We investigated the role of quantitative CMV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as a predictor of short-term outcome in patients with ASUC.

Methods

Consecutive patients with ASUC satisfying Truelove and Witts criteria hospitalized at All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) from May 2016 to July 2019 were included; all received IV steroid. The primary outcome measure was steroid-failure defined as the need for rescue therapy (with ciclosporin or infliximab) or colectomy during admission. AIIMS' index (ulcerative colitis index of severity > 6 at day 1+fecal calprotectin > 1,000 μg/g at day 3), with quantitative CMV PCR on biopsy samples obtained at initial sigmoidoscopy were correlated with the primary outcome.

Results

Thirty of 76 patients (39%) failed IV corticosteroids and 12 (16%) underwent surgery. Patients with steroid failure had a significantly higher mucosal CMV DNA than responders (3,454 copies/mg [0-2,700,000] vs. 116 copies/mg [0-27,220]; P< 0.01). On multivariable analysis, mucosal CMV DNA load > 2,000 copies/mg (odds ratio [OR], 10.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-39.7; P< 0.01) and AIIMS' index (OR, 39.8; 95% CI, 4.4-364.4; P< 0.01) were independent predictors of steroid-failure and need for colectomy. The combination correctly predicted outcomes in 84% of patients with ASUC.

Conclusions

High mucosal CMV DNA ( > 2,000 copies/mg) independently predicts failure of IV corticosteroids and short-term risk of colectomy and it has an additional value to the established markers of disease severity in patients with ASUC.