Global burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution from 1990 to 2017

Estimation and determinants of direct hospitalisation cost for coronary heart disease in a low-middle-income country: evidence from a nationwide study in Iranian hospitals

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the most prevalent type of cardiovascular disease in Iran. This study aims to investigate the estimation and determinants of direct hospitalisation cost for patients with CHD in Iranian hospitals.

METHODS

We identified patients with CHD in Iran in 2019-2020. Data were gathered from the Iran Health Insurance Organisation information systems and the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. This was a cross-sectional prevalence-based study. Generalised linear models were used to find the determinants of hospitalisation cost for patients with CHD. A total of 86 834 patients suffering from CHD were studied.

RESULTS

Mean hospitalisation cost per CHD patient was US$382.90±US$500.72 while the mean daily hospitalisation cost per CHD patient was US$89.71±US$89.99. In-hospital mortality of CHD was 2.52%. Hospitalisation accommodation and medications had the highest share of hospitalisation costs (25.59% and 22.63%, respectively). Men spent 1.12 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.13) times more on hospitalisation costs compared with women, and individuals aged 60 to 69 had hospitalisation costs 1.04 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.06) times higher than those in the 0-49 age range. Patients insured by the Iranian Fund have significantly higher costs 1.17 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.19) than the Rural fund. Hospitalisation costs for patients with CHD who received surgery and angiography were significantly 2.36 (95% CI 2.30 to 2.43) times higher than for patients who did not undergo surgery and angiography.

CONCLUSION

Applying CHD prevention strategies for men and the middle-aged population (50-70 years) is strongly recommended. Prudent use and prescribing of medications will be helpful to reduce hospitalisation cost.

The global burden of cataracts and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study

Introduction

The global distribution and trends in the attributable burden of cataract risk have rarely been systematically explored. To guide the development of targeted and accurate cataract screening and treatment strategies, we analyzed the burden of cataract disease attributable to known risk factors.

Method

This study utilized detailed cataract data from the Global Burden of Disease e 2019, and we analyzed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) e each risk factor from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, we calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) during the study period.

Results

The results revealed that from 1990-2019, the global age-standardized DALYs of e attributable to particulate matter pollution, smoking, high fasting glucose plasma and high BMI showed steady downward trends (1990-2009: EAPC = -0.21 [-0.57 -0.14]); 2000-2009: EAPC = -0.95 [-1.01 -0.89]; 2010-2019: EAPC = -1.41 [-1.8 -1.02]). The age-standardized DALYs and mortality caused by each risk factor were highest in the low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) region (EAPC = -1.77[(-2.19--1.34)]). The overall disease burden of cataracts is lower in males than in females. When analyzing the EAPCs of cataract disease burden for each risk factor individually, we found that the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years caused by particulate matter pollution and smoking decreased (PMP1990-2009: EAPC = -0.53 [-0.9--0.16]; 2000-2009: EAPC = -1.39 [-1.45--1.32]; 2010-2019: EAPC = -2.27 [-2.75--1.79]; smoking 2000 to 2009: EAPC = -1.51 [-1.6--1.43], 2009 to 2019: EAPC = -1.34 [-1.68--1])), while high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index increased annually (HFPG1990 to 1999: EAPC = 1.27 [0.89-1.65], 2000 to 2009: EAPC = 1.02 [0.82-1.22], 2010-2019: EAPC = 0.44 [0.19-0.68]; HBMI 1990 to 1999: EAPC = 1.65 [1.37-1.94], 2000 to 2009: EAPC = 1.56 [1.43-1.68], 2010-2019: EAPC = 1.47 [1.18-1.77]).

Disscussion

The burden of cataracts caused by ambient particulate matter and smoking is increasing in low, low-middle SDI areas, and specific and effective measures are urgently needed. The results of this study suggest that reducing particulate matter pollution, quitting smoking, controlling blood glucose, and lowering BMI could play important roles in reducing the occurrence of cataracts, especially in older people.

Burden of cardiovascular disease attributed to air pollution: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are estimated to be the leading cause of global death. Air pollution is the biggest environmental threat to public health worldwide. It is considered a potentially modifiable environmental risk factor for CVDs because it can be prevented by adopting the right national and international policies. The present study was conducted to synthesize the results of existing studies on the burden of CVDs attributed to air pollution, namely prevalence, hospitalization, disability, mortality, and cost characteristics.

METHODS

A systematic search was performed in the Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science databases to identify studies, without time limitations, up to June 13, 2023. Exclusion criteria included prenatal exposure, exposure to indoor air pollution, review studies, conferences, books, letters to editors, and animal and laboratory studies. The quality of the articles was evaluated based on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Assessment Form, the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and Drummond Criteria using a self-established scale. The articles that achieved categories A and B were included in the study.

RESULTS

Of the 566 studies obtained, based on the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 92 studies were defined as eligible in the present systematic review. The results of these investigations supported that chronic exposure to various concentrations of air pollutants, increased the prevalence, hospitalization, disability, mortality, and costs of CVDs attributed to air pollution, even at relatively low levels. According to the results, the main pollutant investigated closely associated with hypertension was PM2.5. Furthermore, the global DALY related to stroke during 2016-2019 has increased by 1.8 times and hospitalization related to CVDs in 2023 has increased by 8.5 times compared to 2014.

CONCLUSION

Ambient air pollution is an underestimated but significant and modifiable contributor to CVDs burden and public health costs. This should not only be considered an environmental problem but also as an important risk factor for a significant increase in CVD cases and mortality. The findings of the systematic review highlighted the opportunity to apply more preventive measures in the public health sector to reduce the footprint of CVDs in human society.

Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in Adolescents and Young Adults, 1990-2019

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have evaluated the global burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).

METHODS

Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) (ASDR) were used to describe the burden of IHD in AYAs. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) of ASRs were used to describe the trend from 1990 to 2019. Risk factors were calculated by population attributable fractions (PAFs). Analyses were conducted in 2023.

RESULTS

In 2019, the ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of IHD in AYAs were 26.81 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.36-34.54) per 100,000, 7.15 (95% UI: 6.56-7.87) per 100,000 and 409.51 (95% UI: 376.57-449.59) per 100,000. The ASIR and ASMR were higher among men than among women. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR increased (EAPC=0.18%, 95% CI 0.14%-0.22%), while the ASMR (EAPC=-0.39%, -0.50% to -0.27%) and ASDR (EAPC=-0.40%, -0.52% to -0.29%) decreased. The largest increase in ASIR was observed in countries with a middle sociodemographic index (SDI) (EAPC=0.56%, 0.51%-0.60%). Globally, the proportional contribution of risk factors for DALY varied across regions, with the highest proportions of high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in high SDI regions (PAF=74.26%) and high-middle (PAF=71.30%) and the highest proportions of air pollution in low (PAF=41.79%) and low-middle SDI regions (PAF=40.90%).

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of IHD in AYAs remains high globally, and varies by age, sex, (male/female), region, and country. Targeted measures are needed to address the rising burden of IHD in AYAs, focusing on prevention, early diagnosis, and reduction in disparities.

Temporal trends in the prevalence and death of ischemic heart disease in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2019: a multilevel analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Our objective is to describe the current prevalence and death of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in women of childbearing age (WCBA) at the global, regional, and national levels and to analyze its temporal trends from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

WCBA was defined as women aged 15-49 years. Estimates and 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) of IHD prevalence and death numbers for seven age groups were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized prevalence and death rate (ASPR and ASDR) of IHD in WCBA was estimated using the direct age-standardization method. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC) to represent the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, the global ASPR of IHD experienced a 3.21% increase, culminating in 367.21 (95% UI, 295.74-430.16) cases per 100,000 individuals. Conversely, the ASDR decreased to 11.11 (95% UI, 10.10-12.30) per 100,000 individuals. In 2019, among the five sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, the highest ASPR was observed in the high-middle SDI region, whereas the highest ASDR was found in the low-middle SDI region. Regionally, the Caribbean reported the highest ASPR (563.11 per 100,000 individuals; 95% UI, 493.13-643.03), and Oceania reported the highest ASDR (20.20 per 100,000 individuals; 95% UI, 13.01-31.03). At the national level, Trinidad and Tobago exhibited the highest ASPR (730.15 per 100,000 individuals; 95% UI, 633.96-840.13), and the Solomon Islands had the highest ASDR (77.77 per 100,000 individuals; 95% UI, 47.80-121.19). Importantly, over the past three decades, the global ASPR has seen a significant increase [AAPC = 0.11%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.09-0.13; P < 0.001], while the ASDR has demonstrated a significant decreasing trend (AAPC = -0.86%, 95% CI: -1.11 to -0.61; P < 0.001). Air pollution, tobacco use, high systolic blood pressure, elevated body mass index, dietary risks, and high LDL cholesterol have been identified as the leading six risk factors for IHD-related deaths among WCBA in 2019.

Conclusions

Despite the significant decline in the global ASDR for IHD among WCBA over the last thirty years, the ASPR continues to escalate. We need to remain vigilant about the increased burden of IHD in WCBA. It calls for aggressive prevention strategies, rigorous control of risk factors, and the enhancement of healthcare coverage to mitigate the disease burden of IHD among WCBA in forthcoming years.

Phosphocholine-induced energy source shift alleviates mitochondrial dysfunction in lung cells caused by geospecific PM2.5 components

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is globally recognized for its adverse implications on human health. Yet, remain limited the individual contribution of particular PM2.5 components to its toxicity, especially considering regional disparities. Moreover, prevention solutions for PM2.5-associated health effects are scarce. In the present study, we comprehensively characterized and compared the primary PM2.5 constituents and their altered metabolites from two locations: Taiyuan and Guangzhou. Analysis of year-long PM2.5 samples revealed 84 major components, encompassing organic carbon, elemental carbon, ions, metals, and organic chemicals. PM2.5 from Taiyuan exhibited higher contamination, associated health risks, dithiothreitol activity, and cytotoxicities than Guangzhou's counterpart. Applying metabolomics, BEAS-2B lung cells exposed to PM2.5 from both cities were screened for significant alterations. A correlation analysis revealed the metabolites altered by PM2.5 and the critical toxic PM2.5 components in both regions. Among the PM2.5-down-regulated metabolites, phosphocholine emerged as a promising intervention for PM2.5 cytotoxicities. Its supplementation effectively attenuated PM2.5-induced energy metabolism disorder and cell death via activating fatty acid oxidation and inhibiting Phospho1 expression. The highlighted toxic chemicals displayed combined toxicities, potentially counteracted by phosphocholine. Our study offered a promising functional metabolite to alleviate PM2.5-induced cellular disorder and provided insights into the geo-based variability in toxic PM2.5 components.

Associations between cold spells of different time types and coronary heart disease severity

Limited evidence showed the association between cold spells and the severity of coronary heart disease (CHD). This study was to investigate the association between cold spells with their different time types and CHD severity. We collected data on CHD patients admitted to the Zhongnan Hospital, Wuhan, China from 2016 to 2021. CHD severity was quantified using the SYNTAX score and transformed into a binomial variable. Daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature were collected during the study period. We first used daily mean temperature to find the optimum definition among multiple thresholds and durations. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures were used to define different types of cold spells (daytime, nighttime and compound) based on the optimum definition. Annual cold spell days were included to assess individual exposure to cold spells. Logistic regression models were performed to fit the association between cold spell days and CHD severity stratified by different tertiles of PM2.5 and NDVI. In this study, 1937 CHD patients were included. The cold spell defined as at least four consecutive days with daily mean temperature below the 5th percentile exhibited the optimum model. We found that a 4-day increase in cold spell days was associated with more severe CHD (OR = 1.170, 95% CI: 1.074, 1.282). Such an association was more pronounced under higher levels of PM2.5 by OR = 1.270 (1.086, 1.494) and lower levels of greenness by OR = 1.240 (1.044, 1.476). Compared with daytime and compound cold spells, nighttime cold spells showed the strongest association with CHD severity by OR = 1.141 (1.026, 1.269). This study showed that exposure to cold spells was positively associated with CHD severity, especially the nighttime cold spells. The association between cold spells and CHD severity was more significant in high levels of PM2.5 and low levels of greenness.

Cardiovascular diseases burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ambient PM2.5 pollution (APMP2.5) was the leading environmental risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) worldwide. An up-to-date comprehensive study is needed to provide global epidemiological patterns.

METHODS

Detailed data on CVDs burden attributable to APMP2.5 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to assess temporal trends in age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 30 years.

RESULTS

Globally, CVDs attributable to APMP2.5 resulted in 2.48 million deaths and 60.91 million DALYs, with an increase of 122%, respectively from 1990 to 2019. In general, men suffered markedly higher burden than women, but the gap will likely turn narrow. As for age distribution, CVDs deaths and DALYs attributable to APMP2.5 mainly occurred in the elder group (>70 years). Low- and middle-income regions endured the higher CVDs burden due to the higher exposure to APMP2.5, and the gap may potentially expand further compared with high-income regions. For regions, the highest age-standardized rates of APMP2.5-related CVDs deaths and DALYs were observed mainly in Central Asia, while the lowest was observed in Australasia. At the national level, countries with the largest ASDR decline were clustered in western Europe, while Equatorial Guinea, Timor-Leste and Bhutan exhibited relatively rapid increases over this period.

CONCLUSIONS

The global CVDs burden attributable to APMP2.5 has contributed to the heterogeneity of spatial and temporal distribution. APMP2.5-related CVDs deaths have largely shifted from higher SDI regions to those with a lower SDI. Globally, APMP2.5-attributable CVDs pose a significant threat to public health and diseases burden has increased over time, particularly in male, old-aged populations. The governments and health systems should take measures to reduce air pollution to impede this rising trend.

Atmospheric PM2.5 exposure and risk of ischemic heart disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Fine particulate matter <2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) has been validated to associate with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) incidence and mortality. So far, no study has quantitatively evaluated the relationship between the atmospheric PM2.5 exposure and ischemic heart disease (IHD). We conducted a meta-analysis to illustrate the relationship between PM2.5 and IHD. Published articles were systematically searched (until June 2022) from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library. A random-effect model was performed to summarize the total relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Meta-analysis was performed using Stata 12.0 software. A total of 28 studies among 23 cohorts (23.38 million individuals and 256256 IHD cases) were included. With PM2.5 increasing 10 μg/m3, the total RRs of IHD incidence and mortality were 1.07 (95% CI: 0.99-1.17), 1.21 (95% CI: 1.15-1.28), respectively. In sub-analyses, our study revealed that the combined RRs of exposure to PM2.5 on IHD mortality in Asian and European population [1.11 (95% CI: 0.93-1.33); 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11)] were much lower compared with American and Canadian people [1.27 (95% CI: 1.17-1.37); 1.30 (95% CI: 1.24-1.35)]. Furthermore, study duration, size and some adjustments were related with the total RR. Our findings indicated that exposure of an increase in the concentration of atmospheric PM2.5 may increase the risk of IHD incidence and mortality. Further evidence is needed to confirmed the association.

The burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to ambient and household particulate matter pollution, 1990-2019: a global analysis

Elevated risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) is associated with exposure to fine particulate matter. However, there is limited data on trends and comparisons in the global burden of IHD due to household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP) and ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP), particularly in regions of varying socio-economic levels. Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we obtained age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) of IHD due to APMP and HAP from 1990 to 2019. Trends in the burden of IHD attributable to APMP and HAP during the period 1990 to 2019 were calculated by Joinpoint models. We estimated the relationship between ASMR with the socio-demographic indexes (SDI) and the health care accessibility and quality (HAQ) index by the Loess regression model. In 2019, the global burden of IHD ASMR attributed to APMP stabilized, but the most significant increases were observed in low-middle SDI regions. The global IHD ASMR attributed to APMP was 16.60 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI), 13.61 to 19.44] per 100,000 population, with the highest APMP burden in middle SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASMR for HAP-attributable IHD declined. The global ASMR of IHD attributable to HAP in 2019 was 6.30 (95% UI, 4.28 to 8.80) per 100,000 population, with the highest burden observed in the low SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of ASMR and ASDR of IHD attributable to APMP showed stabilization, whereas the HAP burden exhibited a decrease. There are a large burden of APMP particularly in middle SDI countries and a higher burden of HAP in low SDI countries. The burden of IHD due to APMP and HAP in men, the elderly, and populations in low, medium, and low SDI regions should be noticed.

The burden of ischemic heart disease and the epidemiologic transition in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: 1990-2019

It has been estimated that in the next decade, IHD prevalence, DALYs and deaths will increase more significantly in EMR than in any other region of the world. This study aims to provide a comprehensive description of the trends in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) across the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2019. Data on IHD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, DALYs attributable to risk factors, healthcare access and quality index (HAQ), and universal health coverage (UHC) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for EMR countries. The data were stratified based on the social demographic index (SDI). Information on cardiac rehabilitation was obtained from publications by the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR), and additional country-specific data were obtained through advanced search methods. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, applying the estimated age structure of the global population from 2019. Uncertainty intervals were calculated through 1000 iterations, and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were derived from these calculations. The age-standardized prevalence of IHD in the EMR increased from 5.0% to 5.5% between 1990 and 2019, while it decreased at the global level. In the EMR, the age-standardized rates of IHD mortality and DALYs decreased by 11.4% and 15.4%, respectively, during the study period, although both rates remained higher than the global rates. The burden of IHD was found to be higher in males compared to females. Bahrain exhibited the highest decrease in age-standardized prevalence (-3.7%), mortality (-65.0%), and DALYs (-69.1%) rates among the EMR countries. Conversely, Oman experienced the highest increase in prevalence (14.5%), while Pakistan had the greatest increase in mortality (30.0%) and DALYs (32.0%) rates. The top three risk factors contributing to IHD DALYs in the EMR in 2019 were high systolic blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and particulate matter pollution. The trend analysis over the 29-year period (1990-2019) revealed that high fasting plasma glucose (64.0%) and high body mass index (23.4%) exhibited increasing trends as attributed risk factors for IHD DALYs in the EMR. Our findings indicate an increasing trend in the prevalence of IHD and a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the EMR. These results emphasize the need for well-planned prevention and treatment strategies to address the risk factors associated with IHD. It is crucial for the countries in this region to prioritize the development and implementation of programs focused on health promotion, education, prevention, and medical care.

Particulate Matter Pollution Remains a Threat for Cardiovascular Health: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2019

Background Particulate matter (PM) pollution is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, causing substantial disease burden and deaths worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the global burden of cardiovascular diseases attributed to PM from 1990 to 2019. Methods and Results We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) study 2019 to investigate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and deaths attributed to PM as well as its subgroups. It was shown that all burden measures' age-standardized rates for PM were in the same decreasing trend, with the highest decline recorded for deaths (-36.7%). However, the all-age DALYs increased by 31%, reaching 8.9 million in 2019, to which YLLs contributed the most (8.2 million [95% uncertainty interval, 7.3 million-9.2 million]). Men had higher deaths, DALYs, and YLLs despite lower years lived with disability in 2019 compared with women. There was an 8.1% increase in the age-standardized rate of DALYs for ambient PM; however, household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 65.4% in the assessed period. Although higher in men, the low and high sociodemographic index regions had the highest and lowest attributed YLLs/YLDs ratio for PM pollution in 2019, respectively. Conclusions Although the total age-standardized rate of DALYs for PM-attributed cardiovascular diseases diminished from 1990 to 2019, the global burden of PM on cardiovascular diseases has increased. The differences between men and women and between regions have clinical and policy implications in global health planning toward more exact funding and resource allocation, in addition to addressing inequity in health care access.

Association of ambient PM10 and PM2.5 with coronary stenosis measured using selective coronary angiography

BACKGROUND

Long-term ambient particulate matter (PM) exposure exerts detrimental effects on cardiovascular health. Evidence on the relation of chronically exposed ambient PM10 and PM2.5 with coronary stenosis remains lacking. Our aim was to investigate the association of PM10 and PM2.5 with coronary stenosis in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study consisting of 7513 individuals who underwent coronary angiography in Fujian Province, China, from January 2019 to December 2021. We calculated a modified Gensini score (GS) to represent the degree of stenosis in coronary arteries by selective coronary angiography. We fitted linear regressions and logistic models to assess the association of PM10 and PM2.5 with coronary stenosis. We employed restricted cubic splines to describe the exposure-response curves. We performed mediation analyses to assess the potential mediators.

RESULTS

Long-term ambient PM10 and PM2.5 (prior three years average) exposure was significantly associated with the GS, with a breakpoint concentration of 47.5 μg/m3 and 25.8 μg/m3 for PM10 and PM2.5, respectively, above which we found a linear positive exposure-response relationship of ambient PM with GS. Each 10 µg /m3 increase in PM10 exposure (β: 4.81, 95 % CI: 0.44-9.19) and PM2.5 exposure [β: 10.50, 95 % CI: 3.14-17.86] were positively related to the GS. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for each 10 µg/m3 increment in PM10 exposure on severe coronary stenosis was 1.33 (95 % CI: 1.04-1.76). Correspondingly, the adjusted OR for PM2.5 was 1.87 (95 % CI: 1.24-2.99). The mediation analysis indicated that the effect of PM10 on coronary stenosis may be partially mediated through total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, serum creatinine and blood urea nitrogen, and the effect of PM2.5 may be mediated in part by hemoglobin A1c.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides the first evidence that chronic ambient PM10 and PM2.5 exposure was associated with coronary stenosis assessed by GS in patients with suspected coronary artery disease and reveals its potential mediators.

Estimating future PM2.5-attributed acute myocardial infarction incident cases under climate mitigation and population change scenarios in Shandong Province, China

BACKGROUND

The effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been widely recognized. However, no studies have comprehensively evaluated future PM2.5-attributed AMI burdens under different climate mitigation and population change scenarios. We aimed to quantify the PM2.5-AMI association and estimate the future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases under six integrated scenarios in 2030 and 2060 in Shandong Province, China.

METHODS

Daily AMI incident cases and air pollutant data were collected from 136 districts/counties in Shandong Province from 2017 - 2019. A two-stage analysis with a distributed lag nonlinear model was conducted to quantify the baseline PM2.5-AMI association. The future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases was estimated by combining the fitted PM2.5-AMI association with the projected daily PM2.5 concentrations under six integrated scenarios. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in PM2.5-related AMI incidence using a decomposition method.

RESULTS

Each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure at lag05 was related to an excess risk of 1.3 % (95 % confidence intervals: 0.9 %, 1.7 %) for AMI incidence from 2017 - 2019 in Shandong Province. The estimated total PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases would increase by 10.9-125.9 % and 6.4-244.6 % under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, whereas they would decrease by 0.9-5.2 % and 33.0-46.2 % under Scenarios 5 - 6 in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Furthermore, the percentage increases in PM2.5-attributed female cases (2030: -0.3 % to 135.1 %; 2060: -33.2 % to 321.5 %) and aging cases (2030: 15.2-171.8 %; 2060: -21.5 % to 394.2 %) would wholly exceed those in male cases (2030: -1.8 % to 133.2 %; 2060: -41.1 % to 264.3 %) and non-aging cases (2030: -41.0 % to 45.7 %; 2060: -89.5 % to -17.0 %) under six scenarios in 2030 and 2060. Population aging is the main driver of increased PM2.5-related AMI incidence under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, while improved air quality can offset these negative effects of population aging under the implementation of the carbon neutrality and 1.5 °C targets.

CONCLUSION

The combination of ambitious climate policies (i.e., 1.5 °C warming limits and carbon neutrality targets) with stringent clean air policies is necessary to reduce the health impacts of air pollution in Shandong Province, China, regardless of population aging.

Global attributed burden of death for air pollution: Demographic decomposition and birth cohort effect

BACKGROUND

To identify the high-risk pollutants and evolving patterns of attributed mortality burden, more detailed evidence is needed to examine the contribution of different air pollutants to death across the disease spectrum, particularly considering population change as well as the context of the era.

METHODS

We explored the evolving patterns of all-cause and disease-specific deaths attributed to overall air pollution and its main subcategories by using the estimated annual percentage change and additionally assessing the contribution of population growth and ageing to death burden using the decomposition method. Age-period-cohort model and Joinpoint analysis were used to evaluate birth cohort effects specific-disease death burden owing to high-risk air pollution subcategories.

FINDINGS

The number of deaths caused by air pollution increased by 2.62 %, which was driven by ambient particulate matter pollution and ambient ozone pollution, whereas household air pollution decreased. Population ageing contributed 28.88 % of the deaths increase change for air pollution. Compared with other subcategories, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributed to ambient particulate matter pollution remained the heaviest attributed death burden, comprehensively considering of bivariate burden. In 2019, ischemic heart disease attributed to ambient particulate matter pollution exhibited the highest ASMR, which may be impacted by a rapid increase era from 1950 to 1980 birth cohort in woman and 1970 to 1990 birth cohort in man. Diabetes mellitus attributed to ambient particulate matter pollution showed the largest increase for ASMR, which was driven primarily by men born 1910-1975 and women born 1950-1975.Uzbekistan showed the highest ASMR for ischemic heart disease, with Equatorial Guinea showing the fastest increase for diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSION

Priority intervention targets for air pollution and health should emphasize the susceptibility of the elderly population as well as the structural factors of the era, in particular sensitive diseases to the ambient particulate matter pollution.

Hourly Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Acute Myocardial Infarction Onset: An Individual-Level Case-Crossover Study in Shanghai, China, 2015-2020

Associations between ultrafine particles (UFPs) and hourly onset of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have rarely been investigated. We aimed to evaluate the impacts of UFPs on AMI onset and the lag patterns. A time-stratified case-crossover study was performed among 20,867 AMI patients from 46 hospitals in Shanghai, China, between January 2015 and December 2020. Hourly data of AMI onset and number concentrations of nanoparticles of multiple size ranges below 0.10 μm (0.01-0.10, UFP/PNC_0.01-0.10; 0.01-0.03, PNC_0.01-0.03; 0.03-0.05, PNC_0.03-0.05; and 0.05-0.10 μm, PNC_0.05-0.10) were collected. Conditional logistic regressions were applied. Transient exposures to these nanoparticles were significantly associated with AMI onset, with almost linear exposure-response curves. These associations occurred immediately after exposure, lasted for approximately 6 h, and attenuated to be null thereafter. Each interquartile range increase in concentrations of total UFPs, PNC_0.01-0.03, PNC_0.03-0.05, and PNC_0.05-0.10 during the preceding 0-6 h was associated with increments of 3.29, 2.08, 2.47, and 2.93% in AMI onset risk, respectively. The associations were stronger during warm season and at high temperatures and were robust after adjusting for criteria air pollutants. Our findings provide novel evidence that hourly UFP exposure is associated with immediate increase in AMI onset risk.

Association between air pollution exposure and coronary heart disease hospitalization in a humid sub-tropical region of China: A time-series study

Objective

Emerging evidence has highlighted the possible links of environmental pollution with several cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The current study aimed to explore the impact of short-term air pollution exposure on CHD hospitalization in Hefei.

Methods

Data about the daily number of CHD admissions (from 2014 to 2021) were retrieved from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University. Air pollutants and meteorological data were obtained from the China Environmental Monitoring Station and the China Meteorological Data Service Center, respectively. The correlation between air pollution and CHD hospitalization was assessed using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and Poisson generalized linear regression.

Results

In the single-pollutant model, NO₂, O₃, and CO strongly correlated with CHD hospitalization rate. Specifically, exposure to NO₂ (lag0, relative risk [RR]: 1.013, 95%CI: 1.002-1.024, per 10 μg/m³ increase) and CO (lag13, RR: 1.035, 95%CI: 1.001-1.071, per 1 μg/m³ increase) revealed a positive correlation with an increased rate of CHD hospitalization. Interestingly, O₃ had a protective association with hospitalization of CHD (lag0, RR: 0.993, 95%CI: 0.988-0.999, per 10 μg/m³ increase). Similar results, to those of the single-pollutant model, were revealed following verification using two-pollutant models. Subgroup analyses indicated that young people, women, and people in hot seasons were more susceptible to NO₂ exposure, while the elderly, women, and people in cold seasons were more susceptible to O₃. Furthermore, the elderly were more susceptible to CO exposure.

Conclusion

Overall, exposure to NO₂ and CO increases the rate of CHD hospitalization, but exposure to O₃ shows a protective association with the rate of CHD hospitalization. Therefore, early preventive measures against air pollutants should be applied to protect vulnerable patients with CHD.

Time Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality Attributable to PM2.5 Exposure in Southeastern China from 1990 to 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

PM2.5 exposure is a major environmental risk factor for the mortality of ischemic heart disease (IHD). This study aimed to analyze trends in IHD mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure in Jiangsu Province, China, from 1990 to 2019, and their correlation with age, period, and birth cohort.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD2019). The magnitude and direction of the trends in IHD mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate the cohort and period effect.

RESULTS

Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of IHD attributable to PM2.5 exposure decreased from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -1.71% (95%CI: -2.02~-1.40), which, due to ambient PM2.5 (APM) exposure and household PM2.5 (HPM) exposure increased with AAPCs of 1.45% (95%CI: 1.18~1.72) and -8.27% (95%CI: -8.84~-7.69), respectively. APC analysis revealed an exponential distribution in age effects on IHD mortality attributable to APM exposure, which rapidly increased in the elderly. The risk for IHD mortality due to HPM exposure showed a decline in the period and cohort effects, which, due to APM, increased in the period and cohort effects. However, favorable period effects were found in the recent decade. The overall net drift values for APM were above zero, and were below zero for HPM. The values for local drift with age both for APM and HPM exposures were initially reduced and then enhanced.

CONCLUSION

The main environmental risk factor for IHD mortality changed from HPM to APM exposure in Jiangsu Province, China. Corresponding health strategies and prevention management should be adopted to reduce ambient air pollution and decrease the effects of APM exposure on IHD mortality.

The impacts of reduction in ambient fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution on life expectancy in Taiwan

Fine particulate matter, particles less than 2.5 um in diameter (PM_2.5), is an important environmental human health factor to consider. The long- and short-term influence of PM_2.5 on health has been extensively studied in relation to many health outcomes, although few investigations examined the consequences of chronic ambient PM_2.5 on life expectancy, which constitutes an important gauge of public human health status. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of reducing ambient PM_2.5 levels in Taiwan on life expectancy there from 2000 to 2020. Officially reported island-wide annually average concentrations of ambient PM_2.5, county-level life expectancies, and demographic and socioeconomic and proxy variable were collected for the prevalence of smoking from various national public agencies and organizations, since variables these might potentially confound life expectancy results. The relationship between changes in ambient PM_2.5 levels and life expectancy were determined using linear regression. Data demonstrated that counties with greater reductions in ambient PM_2.5 concentrations were associated with higher life expectancies. Adjusting for alterations in demographic and socioeconomic variables and proxy parameter, the prevalence of smoking data from a multiple regression model, it was found that a 0.3-year rise in life expectancy was noted for each 10 ug/m³ decrease in PM_2.5 in those counties. Our findings show that reducing ambient PM_2.5 levels play an important role for prolongation of life expectancy in Taiwan.

The global burden of disease attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: An updated analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIMS

High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is an independent risk factor for several adverse health outcomes and has become a serious public health problem. We aimed to evaluate the spatial pattern and temporal trend of disease burden attributed to HFPG from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using data from GBD 2019, we estimated the numbers and age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to HFPG by calendar year, age, gender, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and specific causes. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the temporal trends of deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, globally, the numbers of deaths and DALYs attributable to HFPG were approximately 6.50 million and 172.07 million, respectively, with age-standardized rates of 83.00 per 100,000 people and 2104.26 per 100,000 people, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the global numbers of deaths and DALYs attributed to HFPG have over doubled. The age-standardized rate of DALYs showed an increasing trend, particularly in males and in regions with middle SDI or below. The leading causes of the global disease burden attributable to HFPG in 2019 were diabetes mellitus, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease.

CONCLUSIONS

HFPG is an important contributor to increasing the global and regional disease burden. Necessary measures should be taken to curb the growing burden attributed to HFPG, particularly in males and in regions with middle SDI or below.

Trends and characteristics of ozone and nitrogen dioxide related health impacts in Chinese cities

Ambient ozone pollution has been becoming severe and attributed to considerable health impacts in China. Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is involved in atmospheric ozone production while also affecting public health directly. Joint control ozone and NO₂ pollution would be of significance. This study quantitatively assessed the health impact attributed to ambient ozone and NO₂ pollution in 338 Chinese cities from 2015 to 2020. The results reveal the generally opposite trends of ozone- and NO₂-related health impacts in China. From 2015-2020, respiratory and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) health impacts attributed to ozone in 338 cities increased by 65.30% and 63.98%. The NO₂-attributed health impacts decreased by 24.80% and 24.62%. In 2020, the ozone- and NO₂-related respiratory health impacts were 3.96 million DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) and 1.47 million DALYs. High health impacts are concentrated in big cities and city clusters. In 2020, the sum of ozone- and NO₂-related respiratory health impacts in the top 20 cities was 0.98 million DALYs and 0.44 million DALYs, accounting for 24.70% and 30.24% of the 338 cities. The population attribution fraction analysis identified the increasing distributional consistency of ozone and NO₂-related health impacts, emphasizing the necessity and possible efficiency of ozone-NO₂ joint control. Emission source analysis based on gridded data provided a reference for understanding health impacts and developing targeted strategies.

Hourly Air Pollutants and Acute Coronary Syndrome Onset In 1.29 Million Patients

Background: Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked with daily hospitalization and mortality of acute coronary syndrome (ACS); however, the associations of sub-daily (hourly) levels of criteria air pollutants with the onset of ACS and its subtypes have rarely been evaluated. Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study among 1,292,880 ACS patients from 2,239 hospitals in 318 Chinese cities between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2020. Hourly concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM_2.5-10), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃) were collected. Hourly onset data of ACS and its subtypes, including ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, and unstable angina, were also obtained. Conditional logistic regressions combined with polynomial distributed lag models were applied. Results: Acute exposures to PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, and CO were each associated with the onset of ACS and its subtype. These associations were strongest in the concurrent hour of exposure and were attenuated thereafter, with the weakest effects observed after 15-29 hours. There were no apparent thresholds in the concentration-response curves. An interquartile range increase in concentrations of PM_2.5 (36.0 μg/m³), NO₂ (29.0 μg/m³), SO₂ (9.0 μg/m³), and CO (0.6 mg/m³) over the 0-24 hours preceding onset was significantly associated with 1.32%, 3.89%, 0.67%, and 1.55% higher risks of ACS onset, respectively. For a given pollutant, the associations were comparable in magnitude across different subtypes of ACS. Generally, NO₂ showed the strongest associations with all three subtypes, followed by PM_2.5, CO, and SO₂. Greater magnitude of associations was observed among patients older than 65, without a history of smoking or chronic cardiorespiratory diseases, and in the cold season. Null associations of exposure to either PM_2.5-10 or O₃ with ACS onset were observed. Conclusions: The results suggest that transient exposure to the air pollutants of PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, CO, but not PM_2.5-10 or O₃, may trigger the onset of ACS, even at concentrations below the World Health Organization air-quality guidelines.

Global burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease attributable to ambient ozone in 204 countries and territories during 1990-2019

Ambient ozone becomes one of significant environmental threats to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in recent decades. To date, however, few systematic analyses have been performed to quantify ozone-attributable disease burden, globally and regionally. In this study, we aimed to comprehensively depict the global trend of ozone-related COPD premature deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We derived estimates of COPD burden attributable to ambient ozone for 204 countries and territories during 1990-2019 from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We examined the number of deaths and DALYs, as well as age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs rate (ASDR) by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), countries, and regions. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were adopted to identify age groups vulnerable to ozone-related COPD. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trend of ozone-attributable COPD burden (e.g., ASMR and ASDR) between 1990 and 2019, using generalized linear models. Spearman rank correlation was applied to measure the relationships of estimated ASMR, ASDR, and EAPC with SDI. In 2019, COPD attributable to ambient ozone gave rise to 365.22 (95% uncertainty interval: 174.93 to 564.27) thousand deaths and 6.21 (2.99 to 9.63) million DALYs globally, representing a corresponding increase of 76.11% and 56.37% versus 1990. During 1990-2019, however, a yearly decline of 1.07% (0.81 to 1.33) was observed for ASMR and 1.30% (1.07 to 1.52) for ASDR. Considerable gender inequality continues in ozone-attributable COPD burden, with much greater impacts among men, and the gap is enlarged with the increase of age. In all age groups, the fractional contribution of ozone to COPD burden exhibited an overall increasing trend globally for both deaths (8.22% in 1990 versus 11.13% in 2019) and DALYs (6.70% in 1990 versus 8.34% in 2019). The burden of COPD caused by ambient ozone varied substantially by geographical and socioeconomic regions. In 2019, the greatest ASMR and ASDR were seen in South Asia, followed by East Asia and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the clear drop of age-standardized rates (EAPC<0) in high, high-middle, and middle SDI regions, ASMR and ASDR in low and low-middle SDI regions continuously raised between 1990 and 2019. Higher SDI was found to be associated with lower EAPCs in ASMR (r_s=-0.4405, p<0.001) and ASDR (r_s=-0.4510, p<0.001). Although the global ASMR and ASDR of COPD attributable to ambient ozone have decreased from 1990 to 2019, there has been an unnegligible increase in some low and low-middle SDI regions such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Andean Latin America. Findings may have some implications for formulating targeted plans and policies for future COPD prevention and ambient ozone management in different regions.

The short-term effects and burden of particle air pollution on hospitalization for coronary heart disease: a time-stratified case-crossover study in Sichuan, China

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD), the leading cause of death globally, might be developed or exacerbated by air pollution, resulting high burden to patients. To date, limited studies have estimated the relations between short-term exposure to air pollution and CHD disease burden in China, with inconsistent results. Hence, we aimed to estimate the short-term impact and burden of ambient PM pollutants on hospitalizations of CHD and specific CHD.

METHODS

PM10 and PM2.5 were measured at 82 monitoring stations in 9 cities in Sichuan Province, China during 2017-2018. Based on the time-stratified case-crossover design, the effects of short-term exposure to particle matter (PM) pollution on coronary heart disease (CHD) hospital admissions were estimated. Meanwhile, the linked burden of CHD owing to ambient PM pollution were estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 104,779 CHD records were derived from 153 hospitals from these 9 cities. There were significant effects of PM pollution on hospital admissions (HAs) for CHD and specific CHD in Sichuan Province. A 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 and PM2.5 was linked with a 0.46% (95% CI: 0.08, 0.84%), and 0.57% (95% CI: 0.05, 1.09%) increments in HAs for CHD at lag7, respectively. The health effects of air pollutants were comparable modified by age, season and gender, showing old (≥ 65 years) and in cold season being more vulnerable to the effects of ambient air pollution, while gender-specific effects is positive but not conclusive. Involving the WHO's air quality guidelines as the reference, 1784 and 2847 total cases of HAs for CHD could be attributable to PM10 and PM2.5, separately. The total medical cost that could be attributable to exceeding PM10 and PM2.5 were 42.04 and 67.25 million CNY from 2017 to 2018, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggested that the short-term exposure to air pollutants were associated with increased HAs for CHD in Sichuan Province, which could be implications for local environment improvement and policy reference.

Health risk and disease burden attributable to long-term global fine-mode particles

Particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5) pollution has long been a global environmental problem and still poses a great threat to public health. This study investigates global spatiotemporal variations in PM_2.5 using the newly developed satellite-derived PM_2.5 dataset from 1998 to 2018. An integrated exposure-response (IER) model was employed to examine the characteristics of PM_2.5-related deaths caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), lung cancer (LC), and stroke in adults (age≥25), as well as lower respiratory infection (LRI) in children (age≤5). The results showed that high annual PM_2.5 concentrations were observed mainly in East Asia and South Asia. Over the 19-year period, PM_2.5 concentrations constantly decreased in developed regions, but increased in most developing regions. Approximately 84% of the population lived in regions where PM_2.5 concentrations exceeded 10 μg/m³. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the population (>60%) in East and South Asia was consistently exposed to PM_2.5 levels above 35 μg/m³. PM_2.5 exposure was linked to 3.38 (95% UI: 3.05-3.70) million premature deaths globally in 2000, a number that increased to 4.11 (95% UI: 3.55-4.69) million in 2018. Premature deaths related to PM_2.5 accounted for 6.54%-7.79% of the total cause of deaths worldwide, with a peak in 2011. Furthermore, developing regions contributed to the majority (85.95%-95.06%) of PM_2.5-related deaths worldwide, and the three highest-ranking regions were East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Globally, IHD and stroke were the two main contributors to total PM_2.5-related deaths, followed by COPD, LC, and LRI.

Heavy Disease Burden of High Systolic Blood Pressure During 1990-2019: Highlighting Regional, Sex, and Age Specific Strategies in Blood Pressure Control

Objective: High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) remains the leading risk factor for mortality worldwide; however, limited data have revealed all-cause and cause-specific burdens attributed to HSBP at global and regional levels. This study aimed to estimate the global burden and priority diseases attributable to HSBP by region, sex, and age. Methods: Based on data and evaluation methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we estimated trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), the age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (ASDRs), and the age-standardized rate of years lived with disability (ASYRs) attributable to HSBP during 1990-2019. Further, we analyzed cause-specific burdens attributable to HSBP by sex, age, year, and region. Results: Globally, a significant downtrend was found in the ASMR attributed to HSBP while ASYRs did not change substantially during 1990-2019. The majority of HSBP burden has shifted from high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions to lower SDI regions. All-cause and most cause-specific burdens related to HSBP were improved in high SDI regions but the downtrends have stagnated in recent years. Although many cause-specific deaths associated with HSBP declined, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and endocarditis associated deaths were aggravated globally and ischemic heart disease (IHD), atrial fibrillation and flutter, aortic aneurysm (AA), and peripheral artery disease (PAD) associated deaths were on the rise in low/low-middle/middle SDI regions. Additionally, males had higher disease burdens than females. Middle-aged people with CVDs composed the major subgroup affected by HSBP while older people had the highest ASMRs associated with HSBP. Conclusions: This study revealed the global burden and priority diseases attributable to HSBP with wide variation by region, sex, and age, calling for effective and targeted strategies to reduce the prevalence and mortality of HSBP, especially in low/low-middle/middle SDI regions.

Global burden attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

High sodium intake is associated with a higher risk of a wide range of diseases. We aimed to estimate the pattern and trend of the global disease burden associated with high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We obtained numbers and rates of death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) attributable to high sodium intake by sex, socio-demographic index, and country from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change to evaluate the age-standardized rate (ASR) of the burden attributable to high sodium intake between 1990 and 2019. We further calculated the contribution of population growth, population aging, and age-specific rates of death and DALY to the net change in the total number of deaths and DALYs attributable to high sodium intake. From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized rates of death and DALY attributable to high sodium intake substantially decreased for both sexes. However, there were significant increases in the total numbers of deaths and DALYs attributable to high sodium intake, which were driven by population growth and population aging. The attribution of population growth and population aging varied widely across countries, with a higher contribution of population growth in most developing countries and a higher contribution of population aging in countries with slow population growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the global burden attributable to high sodium intake in terms of age-standardized rate declined from 1990 to 2019, the absolute burden increased significantly, which was driven by population growth and population aging.

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Prediction of Mortality of Type 2 Diabetic Kidney Disease in China: A Modeling Study

Background

The burden of type 2 diabetic kidney disease (DKD) continues to rise in China. We analyzed time trends in DKD mortality and associations with age, period, and birth cohort from 1990 to 2019, made projections up to 2030, and examined the drivers of deaths from DKD.

Methods and Findings

The number of DKD deaths in China from 1990 to 2019 was obtained from the GBD 2019. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects in DKD mortality between 1990 and 2019. We calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rates), period, and cohort relative risks. We used Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project future age-specific DKD death cases from 2020 to 2030. We used a validated decomposition algorithm to attribute changes in DKD deaths to population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes from 1990 to 2030. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate of DKD in China was relatively stable, but the absolute number of DKD deaths showed a noticeable increasing trend. The overall annual percentage change (net drift) was -0.75% (95% confidence interval, CI: -0.93 to -0.57) for males and -1.90% (95% CI, -2.19 to -1.62) for females. The age-specific annual percentage changes (local drifts) were below zero in all age groups from 1990 to 2019 except for males aged above 65 to 69 years, and for females aged above 70 to 74 years. The risk of DKD deaths increased exponentially with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations. The Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis projects that there would be 88,803 deaths from DKD in 2030, increased by 224.2% from 1990. Despite a decrease in age-specific DKD death rates, the reduction would be entirely offset by population aging.

Conclusions

Although China has made progress in reducing DKD deaths, demographic changes have entirely offset the progress. The burden of DKD deaths is likely to continue increasing. Our findings suggest that large-scale screening is imperative for DKD control and prevention, particularly for high-risk groups.

Assessing the health impacts attributable to PM2.5 and ozone pollution in 338 Chinese cities from 2015 to 2020

China has effectively reduced the fine particulate (PM_2.5) pollution from 2015 to 2020. Ozone pollution and related health impacts have become severe contemporaneously. The coordinated control of PM_2.5 and ozone is becoming a new issue for China's air pollution control. This study quantitatively assessed the health impacts attributed to PM_2.5 and ozone pollution in 338 Chinese cities from 2015 to 2020 and estimated the possible health benefits from achieving dual concentration targets during 2021-2025. Results show PM_2.5 caused a total health impact of 2.45 × 10⁷ disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2020. All-cause and respiratory ozone-related health impact in 2020 was 1.04 × 10⁷ DALYs and 1.56 × 10⁶ DALYs. Between 2015 and 2020, the PM_2.5-related health impacts decreased by 14.97%, while those ozone-related increased by 94.61% and 96.54% for all-cause and respiratory. Cities in the North China Plain have suffered higher health impacts attributable to PM_2.5 and ozone pollution, indicating that the two-pollutant coordinated control is primarily needed. By achieving aggressive concentration target (decreasing 10%) between 2020 and 2025, China will reduce the PM_2.5-related health impacts in 338 cities by 1.56 × 10⁶ DALYs (improving 6.37%). By achieving general target (decreasing 10% or within the Interim target-1 of World Health Organization), the PM_2.5-related health benefit will be 7.98 × 10⁵ DALYs (improving 3.25%). The deteriorating ozone health risks will also be improved. Controlling air pollution in large cities and regional center cities can achieve remarkable health benefits. Due to the inter-region, inter-province, and inter-city difference of health impacts, targeted and differentiated pollution prevention and control need to be implemented.

Hair Lead, Aluminum, and Other Toxic Metals in Normal-Weight and Obese Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

The objective of the present study was to evaluate hair toxic metal levels in patients with obesity and/or coronary heart disease (CHD). Following a 2 × 2 factorial design, subjects without CHD were grouped into normal weight control (n = 123) and obese groups (n = 140). Patients suffering from CHD were divided into normal weight (n = 180) and obese CHD subjects (n = 240). Hair Al, As, Cd, Hg, Ni, and Pb levels were evaluated using inductively-coupled plasma mass-spectrometry. The data demonstrate that hair Al and Hg levels were higher in obese subjects as compared to normal weight controls. Normal weight CHD patients were characterized by significantly higher hair Al, As, Cd, and Pb levels when compared to healthy subjects. The highest hair Al, As, and Pb levels were observed in obese CHD patients, significantly exceeding the respective values in other groups. Factorial analysis revealed significant influence of factorial interaction (CHD*obesity) only for hair Pb content. Given the role of obesity as a risk factor for CHD, it is proposed that increased toxic metal accumulation in obesity may promote further development of cardiovascular diseases.

Monetary Health Co-Benefits and GHG Emissions Reduction Benefits: Contribution from Private On-the-Road Transport

This is the first study to provide a systematic monetary benefit matrix, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction benefits and air pollution reduction health co-benefits, for a change in on-the-road transport to low-carbon types. The benefit transfer method is employed to estimate the social cost of carbon and the health co-benefits via impact pathway analysis in Taiwan. Specifically, the total emissions reduction benefits from changing all internal combustion vehicles to either hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or electric vehicles would generate an average of USD 760 million from GHG emissions reduction and USD 2091 million from health co-benefits based on air pollution reduction, for a total benefit of USD 2851 million annually. For a change from combustion scooters to light- or heavy-duty electric scooters, the average GHG emissions reduction benefits would be USD 96.02 million, and the health co-benefits from air pollution reduction would be USD 1008.83 million, for total benefits of USD 1104.85 million annually.

Effect of Air Quality on the Risk of Emergency Room Visits in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Background: We investigated the effect of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) and meteorological conditions on the risk of emergency room visits in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in Beijing, which is considered as a monsoon climate region. Methods: In this case-crossover design study, medical records from patients with AF who visited the Critical Care Center in the Emergency Department of Anzhen Hospital from January 2011 through December 2014 and air quality and meteorological data of Beijing during the same period were collected and analyzed using Cox regression and time-series autocorrelation analyses. Results: A total of 8,241 patients were included. When the average PM2.5 concentration was >430 μg/m³, the risk of emergency room visits for patients with uncomplicated AF, AF combined with cardiac insufficiency, and AF combined with rheumatic heart disease increased by 12, 12, and 40%, respectively. When the average PM2.5 concentration was >420 μg/m³, patients with AF combined with diabetes mellitus had a 75% increased risk of emergency room visits, which was the largest increase in risk among all types of patients with AF. When the average PM2.5 concentration was >390 μg/m³, patients with AF combined with acute coronary syndrome had an approximately 30% increased risk of emergency room visits, which was the highest and fastest increase in risk among all types of patients with AF. The risk of emergency room visits for patients with AF was positively correlated with air quality as the time lag proceeded, with an autocorrelation coefficient of 0.223 between the risk of emergency room visits and air quality in patients with AF on day 6 of the time lag. Conclusion: Exposure to certain concentrations of PM2.5 in a monsoon climate region significantly increased the risk of emergency room visits in patients with AF.

Trends of stroke attributable to high sodium intake at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019: a population-based study

Objectives: High sodium intake is associated with a higher risk of stroke. However, global patterns and trends in the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake have not been systematically assessed.Methods: We used the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) to assess the trends of ASMR and ASDR of the disease burden attributable to high sodium intake between 1990 and 2019. We further calculated the contribution of changes in population growth, population aging, and mortality or DALYs to changes in total stroke deaths and DALYs.Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of stroke attributable to high sodium intake changed significantly, from a universal burden in Asia and Europe to one that mainly affected some countries in Asia and Oceania. This change was due to the combined effects of demographic changes and changes in mortality or DALY rates. For countries in Asia and Oceania, the effects of population aging and population growth outweighed the effects of declining mortality and DALY rates, resulting in an absolute increase in strokes attributable to high sodium intake.Conclusion: Although the age-standardized global stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake has declined from 1990 to 2019, the burdens in some Asia and Oceania countries, particularly China, remain high.