Prognosis and Prognostic Scoring Models for Alcoholic Liver Disease and Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis

Proteomics identifies complement protein signatures in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis

Diagnostic challenges continue to impede development of effective therapies for successful management of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), creating an unmet need to identify noninvasive biomarkers for AH. In murine models, complement contributes to ethanol-induced liver injury. Therefore, we hypothesized that complement proteins could be rational diagnostic/prognostic biomarkers in AH. Here, we performed a comparative analysis of data derived from human hepatic and serum proteome to identify and characterize complement protein signatures in severe AH (sAH). The quantity of multiple complement proteins was perturbed in liver and serum proteome of patients with sAH. Multiple complement proteins differentiated patients with sAH from those with alcohol cirrhosis (AC) or alcohol use disorder (AUD) and healthy controls (HCs). Serum collectin 11 and C1q binding protein were strongly associated with sAH and exhibited good discriminatory performance among patients with sAH, AC, or AUD and HCs. Furthermore, complement component receptor 1-like protein was negatively associated with pro-inflammatory cytokines. Additionally, lower serum MBL associated serine protease 1 and coagulation factor II independently predicted 90-day mortality. In summary, meta-analysis of proteomic profiles from liver and circulation revealed complement protein signatures of sAH, highlighting a complex perturbation of complement and identifying potential diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for patients with sAH.

ACG Clinical Guideline: Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

ABSTRACT

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is the most common cause of advanced hepatic disease and frequent indication for liver transplantation worldwide. With harmful alcohol use as the primary risk factor, increasing alcohol use over the past decade has resulted in rapid growth of the ALD-related healthcare burden. The spectrum of ALD ranges from early asymptomatic liver injury to advanced disease with decompensation and portal hypertension. Compared with those with other etiologies of liver disease, patients with ALD progress faster and more often present at an advanced stage. A unique phenotype of advanced disease is alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) presenting with rapid onset or worsening of jaundice, and acute on chronic liver failure in severe forms conveying a 1-month mortality risk of 20%-50%. The model for end stage disease score is the most accurate score to stratify AH severity (>20 defined as severe disease). Corticosteroids are currently the only available therapeutic with proven efficacy for patients with severe AH, providing survival benefit at 1 month in 50%-60% of patients. Abstinence of alcohol use, a crucial determinant of long-term outcomes, is challenging to achieve in ALD patients with concurrent alcohol use disorder (AUD). As patients with ALD are rarely treated for AUD, strategies are needed to overcome barriers to AUD treatment in patients with ALD and to promote a multidisciplinary integrated care model with hepatology, addiction medicine providers, and social workers to comprehensively manage the dual pathologies of liver disease and of AUD. Liver transplantation, a definitive treatment option in patients with advanced cirrhosis, should be considered in selected patients with AH, who are unresponsive to medical therapy and have a low risk of relapse to posttransplant alcohol use. Level of evidence and strength of recommendations were evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations system. This guideline was developed under the American College of Gastroenterology Practice Parameters Committee.

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease 3.0 is not superior to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Na in predicting survival: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 yields high prognostic performance for patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD). However, its prognostic performance for patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) has limited results. The aim of this study was to perform such an evaluation among Chinese patients.

METHODS

Patients hospitalized with ARLD in one institution between 2015 and 2018 were retrospectively included and followed up for 12 months. The original MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and modified Maddrey discriminant function (MDF) scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. Their prognostic performances for 1-year survival were assessed. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and AUCs were calculated for each scoring system.

RESULTS

Among the 576 patients included in our analysis, 209 patients had alcoholic hepatitis (AH). By the 1-year follow-up, 14.8% (84/567) of all the patients and 23.4% (49/209) of those with AH had died. Overall, patients who had died had higher MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and MDF scores (all p < 0.001) than those who had not. The same was true in the AH subgroup (MELD: p < 0.001, MELD-Na: p < 0.001, MELD 3.0: p = 0.007, MDF: p = 0.017). The AUC of the MELD 3.0 for prediction of 1-year survival among patients with ARLD was 0.682, lower than that of the original MELD (0.728, p < 0.001) and MELD-Na (0.735, p < 0.001). Moreover, in the AH subgroup, the AUC for the prediction of 1-year survival was lower than that in the MELD-Na subgroup (0.634 vs. 0.708, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD 3.0 was not superior to the original MELD or the MELD-Na in predicting the mortality of patients with ARLD.

Determining Prognosis of ALD and Alcohol-associated Hepatitis

Alcohol-associated hepatitis has a poor prognosis in terms of short-term mortality and often presents with symptoms, such as jaundice, acute renal failure, and ascites. There are many prognostic models that have been developed to predict short-term and long-term mortality in these patients. Current prognostic models can be divided into static scores, which are measured at admission, and dynamic models, which measure baseline and after a certain amount of time. The efficacy of these models in predicting short-term mortality is disputed. Numerous studies across the world have compared prognostic models, such as the Maddrey's discriminant function, the model for end-stage liver disease score, model for end-stage liver disease score-Na, Glasgow alcohol-associated hepatitis score, and the age-bilirubin-international normalized ratio-creatinine (ABIC) score, to each other to determine which score is more useful for a particular context. There are also prognostic markers such as liver biopsy, breath biomarkers, and acute kidney injury that are able to predict mortality. The accuracy of these scores is a key to determining when treatment with corticosteroids is futile since there is an increased risk of infection in those treated with it. Furthermore, although these scores are helpful in predicting short-term mortality, the only factor that is able to predict long-term mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease is abstinence. Numerous studies have proven that even though corticosteroids provide a treatment for alcohol-associated hepatitis, it is a temporary one, at best. The purpose of this paper is to compare the historical models to current ones in their ability to predict mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease by analyzing multiple studies that have examined these prognostic markers. This paper also isolates the knowledge gaps in the ability to delineate which patients would benefit from corticosteroids and patients who would not and provides potential models for the future that could narrow this gap.

Correlation Between Computed Tomography Findings and the Laboratory Test-Derived Severity Score in Patients With Severe Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare computed tomography (CT) findings between patients with severe and nonsevere acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH).

METHODS

We included 96 patients diagnosed with AAH between January 2011 and October 2021 who underwent 4-phase liver CT and laboratory blood tests. Two radiologists reviewed the initial CT images with respect to distribution and grade of hepatic steatosis; transient parenchymal arterial enhancement (TPAE); and presence of cirrhosis, ascites, and hepatosplenomegaly. A Maddrey discriminant function score (4.6 × [patient's prothrombin time - control] + total bilirubin [mg/mL]) was used as cutoff indicator for severity, with a score of 32 or higher indicating severe disease. The image findings were compared between the severe (n = 24) and nonsevere (n = 72) groups using the χ2 test or Fisher exact test. After univariate analysis, the most significant factor was identified using a logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, there were significant between-group differences in the TPAE, liver cirrhosis, splenomegaly, and ascites (P < 0.0001, P < 0.0001, P = 0.0002, and P = 0.0163, respectively). Among them, TPAE was the only significant factor for severe AAH (P < 0.0001; odds ratio, 48.1; 95% confidence interval, 8.3-280.6). Using this single indicator, the estimated accuracy, positive predictive, and negative predictive values were 86%, 67%, and 97%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Transient parenchymal arterial enhancement was the only significant CT finding in severe AAH.

Subclinical versus advanced forms of alcohol-related liver disease: Need for early detection

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) consists of a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations and pathological features, ranging from asymptomatic patients to decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Patients with heavy alcohol intake and advanced fibrosis often develop a subacute form of liver failure called alcohol-induced hepatitis (AH). Globally, most patients with ALD are identified at late stages of the disease, limiting therapeutic interventions. Thus, there is a need for early detection of ALD patients, which is lacking in most countries. The identification of alcohol misuse is hampered by the existence of alcohol underreporting by many patients. There are useful biomarkers that can detect recent alcohol use. Moreover, there are several non-invasive techniques to assess the presence of advanced fibrosis among patients with alcohol misuse, which could identify patients at high risk of liver related events or early death. In this review, we discuss differences between early stages of ALD and AH as the cornerstone of advanced forms. A global overview of epidemiological, anthropometric, clinical, analytical, histological, and molecular differences is summarized in this article. We propose that campaigns aimed at identifying patients with subclinical forms can prevent the development of life-threatening forms.

current acute pancreatitis prevention by the elimination of alcohol and cigaette smoking (REAPPEAR): protocol of a randomised controlled trial and a cohort study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Acute recurrent pancreatitis (ARP) due to alcohol and/or tobacco abuse is a preventable disease which lowers quality of life and can lead to chronic pancreatitis. The REAPPEAR study aims to investigate whether a combined patient education and cessation programme for smoking and alcohol prevents ARP.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The REAPPEAR study consists of an international multicentre randomised controlled trial (REAPPEAR-T) testing the efficacy of a cessation programme on alcohol and smoking and a prospective cohort study (REAPPEAR-C) assessing the effects of change in alcohol consumption and smoking (irrespective of intervention). Daily smoker patients hospitalised with alcohol-induced acute pancreatitis (AP) will be enrolled. All patients will receive a standard intervention priorly to encourage alcohol and smoking cessation. Participants will be subjected to laboratory testing, measurement of blood pressure and body mass index and will provide blood, hair and urine samples for later biomarker analysis. Addiction, motivation to change, socioeconomic status and quality of life will be evaluated with questionnaires. In the trial, patients will be randomised either to the cessation programme with 3-monthly visits or to the control group with annual visits. Participants of the cessation programme will receive a brief intervention at every visit with direct feedback on their alcohol consumption based on laboratory results. The primary endpoint will be the composite of 2-year all-cause recurrence rate of AP and/or 2-year all-cause mortality. The cost-effectiveness of the cessation programme will be evaluated. An estimated 182 participants will be enrolled per group to the REAPPEAR-T with further enrolment to the cohort.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the Scientific and Research Ethics Committee of the Hungarian Medical Research Council (40394-10/2020/EÜIG), all local ethical approvals are in place. Results will be disseminated at conferences and in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04647097.

Changes in Serum Myostatin Levels in Alcoholic Hepatitis Correlate with Improvement in MELD

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a serious clinical syndrome often associated with muscle wasting. Myostatin, a member of the transforming growth factor-β superfamily, has been studied in diseases with muscle wasting; however, the role of myostatin in AH is unknown.

AIMS

To investigate the association between myostatin, clinical variables, and outcomes in AH.

METHODS

We analyzed data for cases of AH and controls of heavy drinkers (HD) in TREAT001 (NCT02172898) with serum myostatin levels (AH: n = 131, HD: n = 124). We compared characteristics between the two groups at baseline, 30, and 90 days and explored correlations between myostatin and clinical variables. We then modeled the relationship of myostatin to other variables, including mortality.

RESULTS

Baseline median myostatin was lower in AH compared to HD (males: 1.58 vs 3.06 ng/ml, p < 0.001; females: 0.84 vs 2.01 ng/ml, p < 0.001). In multivariable linear regression, bilirubin, WBC, and platelet count remained negatively correlated with myostatin in AH. AH females who died at 90 days had significantly lower myostatin, but in a multivariable logistic model with MELD and myostatin, only MELD remained significantly associated with 90-day mortality. During 1-year follow-up, AH cases (n = 30) demonstrated an increase in myostatin (mean, 1.73 ng/ml) which correlated with decreasing MELD scores (ρ = - 0.42, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Myostatin levels are significantly lower in AH compared to HD and are negatively correlated with total bilirubin, WBC, and platelet count. Myostatin increased as patients experienced decreases in MELD. Overall, myostatin demonstrated a dynamic relationship with AH outcomes and future studies are needed to understand the prognostic role of myostatin in AH.

Day-4 Lille Score Is a Good Prognostic Factor and Early Predictor in Assessing Therapy Response in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis

Lille score at Day 7 (LM7) helps to predict the outcome of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (sAH) undergoing corticotherapy. Several scores such as Maddrey’s discriminant function (MDF), MELD, ABIC, and GAHS are used for a 28-day mortality prognosis. Our study aimed to evaluate if the assessment of the Lille score at 4 days (LM4) is as useful as the Lille score at Day 7 (LM7) to predict response to corticosteroids and 28-day mortality and evaluate the utility of severity scores at admission for predicting the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) and severe alcoholic hepatitis (sAH). A retrospective study was performed, and all consecutive patients with AH and MDF > 32 without contraindications to corticosteroids were included. Prognostic scores were evaluated at admission, and 28-day mortality was assessed. Response to corticotherapy was assessed by LM4 and LM7. Results: A total of 55/103 patients with sAH (51.5%) had MDF > 32 and received corticosteroids. There was no difference between the proportion of patients with a responder LM4 versus LM7 (27% vs. 36%, p = 0.31). The mean value for LM4 was 0.64 ± 0.3 versus 0.60 ± 0.3 for LM7 (p = 0.48). Precisely 90.3% of patients were correctly identified as responders or not by LM4 compared with LM7. The best model for predicting 28-day mortality was composed of MELD and LM4/LM7, with an accuracy of 0.90 for both combinations. Conclusion: LM4 could be used instead of LM7 for predicting response to corticosteroid therapy in patients with sAH and LC, as well as 28-day mortality. Using LM4, we could avoid prolonged use of this therapy and its complications.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of Complement in Patients With Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Given the lack of effective therapies and high mortality in acute alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), it is important to develop rationally designed biomarkers for effective disease management. Complement, a critical component of the innate immune system, contributes to uncontrolled inflammatory responses leading to liver injury, but is also involved in hepatic regeneration. Here, we investigated whether a panel of complement proteins and activation products would provide useful biomarkers for severity of AH and aid in predicting 90-day mortality.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Plasma samples collected at time of diagnosis from 254 patients with moderate and severe AH recruited from four medical centers and 31 healthy persons were used to quantify complement proteins by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and Luminex arrays. Components of the classical and lectin pathways, including complement factors C2, C4b, and C4d, as well as complement factor I (CFI) and C5, were reduced in AH patients compared to healthy persons. In contrast, components of the alternative pathway, including complement factor Ba (CFBa) and factor D (CFD), were increased. Markers of complement activation were also differentially evident, with C5a increased and the soluble terminal complement complex (sC5b9) decreased in AH. Mannose-binding lectin, C4b, CFI, C5, and sC5b9 were negatively correlated with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, whereas CFBa and CFD were positively associated with disease severity. Lower CFI and sC5b9 were associated with increased 90-day mortality in AH.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, these data indicate that AH is associated with a profound disruption of complement. Inclusion of complement, especially CFI and sC5b9, along with other laboratory indicators, could improve diagnostic and prognostic indications of disease severity and risk of mortality for AH patients.

Utility of platelet indices in alcoholic hepatitis: a retrospective study

Background:

The commonly available platelet indices are platelet distribution width (PDW), plateletcrit (PCT), and mean platelet volume (MPV). They have been used in diagnosis and prognosis of various abdominal disorders. They have never been used to predict severity of alcoholic hepatitis.

Methods:

A retrospective analysis of chronic alcohol consumers presenting with jaundice and deranged liver function tests was performed. Maddrey discriminant function (MDF) and modified end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated and patients compared between severe and nonsevere alcoholic hepatitis (MDF ≥32 vs MDF <32 and MELD >20 vs MELD ≤20). Logistic regression analysis was performed to find significant predictors. Receiver operating characteristic was used to find the area under the curve. Spearman correlation was performed to discover association between platelet indices and severity scores.

Results:

There were 119 patients in the study. Coexisting illnesses included pancreatitis, cirrhosis, infections, and alcohol withdrawal syndrome. The mean age (years), duration of alcohol consumption (years), and ethanol (g/day) were 45.13 ± 11.53, 18.84 ± 11.40, and 65.61 ± 45.42, respectively. The average MELD and Maddrey scores were 14.13 ± 5.17 and 36.45 ± 29.63, respectively. The mean platelet counts, PDW, MPV, and PCT were 194.01 ± 178.82 × 10⁹/L, 17.10 ± 1.21, 5.99 ± 0.96, and 0.14 ± 0.04, respectively. PDW >18 and MPV had a significant positive correlation with MELD scores. Only bilirubin and prothrombin prolongation were significant predictors of severe alcoholic hepatitis. The area under the curve was highest for PCT at 0.622 (P = .07; confidence interval = 0.500–0.743).

Conclusions:

Platelet indices appear to be significantly altered in alcoholic hepatitis, but they do not predict severe disease. Whether this inability to predict severe alcoholic hepatitis is due to coexisting illnesses such as pancreatitis, cirrhosis, and infection needs to be studied further.

The Mexican consensus on alcoholic hepatitis

Alcoholic hepatitis is a frequent condition in the Mexican population. It is characterized by acute-on-chronic liver failure, important systemic inflammatory response, and multiple organ failure. The severe variant of the disease implies elevated mortality. Therefore, the Asociación Mexicana de Gastroenterología and the Asociación Mexicana de Hepatología brought together a multidisciplinary team of health professionals to formulate the first Mexican consensus on alcoholic hepatitis, carried out utilizing the Delphi method and resulting in 37 recommendations. Alcohol-related liver disease covers a broad spectrum of pathologies that includes steatosis, steatohepatitis, different grades of fibrosis, and cirrhosis and its complications. Severe alcoholic hepatitis is defined by a modified Maddrey's discriminant function score ≥ 32 or by a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score equal to or above 21. There is currently no specific biomarker for its diagnosis. Leukocytosis with neutrophilia, hyperbilirubinemia (> 3 mg/dL), AST > 50 U/l (< 400 U/l), and an AST/ALT ratio > 1.5-2 can guide the diagnosis. Abstinence from alcohol, together with nutritional support, is the cornerstone of treatment. Steroids are indicated for severe disease and have been effective in reducing the 28-day mortality rate. At present, liver transplantation is the only life-saving option for patients that are nonresponders to steroids. Certain drugs, such as N-acetylcysteine, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, and metadoxine, can be adjuvant therapies with a positive impact on patient survival.

Alcohol and the Hospitalized Patient

Alcohol use is a common social and recreational activity in our society. Misuse of alcohol can lead to significant medical comorbidities that can affect essentially every organ system and lead to high health care costs and utilization. Heavy alcohol use across the spectrum from binge drinking and intoxication to chronic alcohol use disorder can lead to high morbidity and mortality both in the long and short term. Recognizing and treating common neurologic, gastrointestinal, and hematological manifestations of excess alcohol intake are essential for those who care for hospitalized patients. Withdrawal is among the most common and dangerous sequela associated with alcohol use disorder.

Alcohol-related liver disease: Clinical practice guidelines by the Latin American Association for the Study of the Liver (ALEH)

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is a major cause of advanced chronic liver disease in Latin-America, although data on prevalence is limited. Public health policies aimed at reducing the alarming prevalence of alcohol use disorder in Latin-America should be implemented. ALD comprises a clinical-pathological spectrum that ranges from steatosis, steatohepatitis to advanced forms such as alcoholic hepatitis (AH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Besides genetic factors, the amount of alcohol consumption is the most important risk factor for the development of ALD. Continuous consumption of more than 3 standard drinks per day in men and more than 2 drinks per day in women increases the risk of developing liver disease. The pathogenesis of ALD is only partially understood and recent translational studies have identified novel therapeutic targets. Early forms of ALD are often missed and most clinical attention is focused on AH, which is defined as an abrupt onset of jaundice and liver-related complications. In patients with potential confounding factors, a transjugular biopsy is recommended. The standard therapy for AH (i.e. prednisolone) has not evolved in the last decades yet promising new therapies (i.e. G-CSF, N-acetylcysteine) have been recently proposed. In both patients with early and severe ALD, prolonged abstinence is the most efficient therapeutic measure to decrease long-term morbidity and mortality. A multidisciplinary team including alcohol addiction specialists is recommended to manage patients with ALD. Liver transplantation should be considered in the management of patients with end-stage ALD that do not recover despite abstinence. In selected cases, increasing number of centers are proposing early transplantation for patients with severe AH not responding to medical therapy.

Emerging Noninvasive Biomarkers, and Medical Management Strategies for Alcoholic Hepatitis: Present Understanding and Scope

Alcohol use disorder is associated with a wide array of hepatic pathologies ranging from steatosis to alcoholic-related cirrhosis (AC), alcoholic hepatitis (AH), or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Biomarkers are categorized into two main categories: biomarkers associated with alcohol consumption and biomarkers of alcoholic liver disease (ALD). No ideal biomarker has been identified to quantify the degree of hepatocyte death or severity of AH, even though numerous biomarkers have been associated with AH. This review provides information of some of the novel and latest biomarkers that are being investigated and have shown a substantial association with the degree and severity of liver injury and inflammation. Importantly, they can be measured noninvasively. In this manuscript, we consolidate the present understanding and prospects of these biomarkers; and their application in assessing the severity and progression of the alcoholic liver disease (ALD). We also review current and upcoming management options for AH.

Computed Tomography Findings as a Novel Predictor of Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of outcomes for alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is critical, as prognosis determines treatment eligibility. Computed tomography (CT) features may provide prognostic information beyond traditional models.

AIMS

Our aim was to identify CT features that predict outcomes in AH.

METHODS

We studied 108 patients retrospectively with definite or probable AH, who underwent admission abdominal CT. A radiologist blinded to outcome evaluated eight CT features. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

Twenty-five (23.2%) patients died within 90 days. While traditional prognostic tools, including Maddrey discriminant function (DF), predicted 90-day mortality (OR 1.01 [1.00, 1.03], P = 0.02), abdominal CT findings were also accurate predictors. On abdominal CT, patients with severe AH had larger volume of ascites (moderate/large volume: 34.0 vs. 8.2%, P < 0.0001), longer liver length (17.1 vs. 15.1 cm, P = 0.001), greater liver heterogeneity (moderate/severe: 21.3 vs. 8.2%, P = 0.007), and more likely to have splenomegaly (42.6 vs. 18.0%, P = 0.009) than those with mild AH. Univariate analysis revealed that ascites volume (OR 2.59 [1.35, 4.96], P = 0.004) predicted 90-day mortality. In multivariate analysis, degree of ascites predicted 90-day mortality when controlling for Maddrey DF (OR 2.36 [1.19, 4.69], P = 0.01) and trended toward significance when controlling for MELD score (OR 2.02 [0.95, 4.30], P = 0.07).

CONCLUSION

CT findings in AH differentiate disease severity and predict 90-day mortality; therefore, the role of CT warrants further investigation as a tool in AH management.

ACG Clinical Guideline: Alcoholic Liver Disease

Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) comprises a clinical-histologic spectrum including fatty liver, alcoholic hepatitis (AH), and cirrhosis with its complications. Most patients are diagnosed at advanced stages and data on the prevalence and profile of patients with early disease are limited. Diagnosis of ALD requires documentation of chronic heavy alcohol use and exclusion of other causes of liver disease. Prolonged abstinence is the most effective strategy to prevent disease progression. AH presents with rapid onset or worsening of jaundice, and in severe cases may transition to acute on chronic liver failure when the risk for mortality, depending on the number of extra-hepatic organ failures, may be as high as 20-50% at 1 month. Corticosteroids provide short-term survival benefit in about half of treated patients with severe AH and long-term mortality is related to severity of underlying liver disease and is dependent on abstinence from alcohol. General measures in patients hospitalized with ALD include inpatient management of liver disease complications, management of alcohol withdrawal syndrome, surveillance for infections and early effective antibiotic therapy, nutritional supplementation, and treatment of the underlying alcohol-use disorder. Liver transplantation, a definitive treatment option in patients with advanced alcoholic cirrhosis, may also be considered in selected patients with AH cases, who do not respond to medical therapy. There is a clinical unmet need to develop more effective and safer therapies for patients with ALD.

Predicting short-term and long-term mortality of hospitalized Portuguese patients with alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol abuse can result in a spectrum of liver injury that ranges from mild fatty infiltration to alcoholic hepatitis (AH), cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The present study aimed to evaluate current scoring systems in predicting short-term and long-term mortality because of AH.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Records of 170 consecutive patients with AH admitted to a tertiary center between January 2005 and October 2015 were reviewed. Clinical and biochemical parameters were retrieved for the assessment of AH scores for the day of admission (D1) and for the seventh day of hospitalization (D7). Endpoints included admission to the ICU, and 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

The Maddrey discriminant function and the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) were modest predictors of the need for ICU admission. In-hospital, 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality were 15.9, 18.2, 21.8, and 30.0%, respectively. There was a numerical, albeit nonsignificant, trend for higher accuracy using D7 scores, especially the MELD, in predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality. Overall, all scores showed high negative predictive values (30 day: 91.2-98.7% and 1 year: 78.8-93.7%), but modest positive predictive values (30 day: 30.6-70.8% and 1 year: 42.1-61.2%). Survival rates were the highest among patients showing a decrease in the MELD, Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score, and Age, serum Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, and serum Creatinine score over the first week of admission.

DISCUSSION

AH scores were comparable in identifying patients at low risk of mortality up to 1 year following admission. Reassessment of the MELD, Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score, and Age, serum Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, and serum Creatinine score scores after 1 week further improved mortality prediction.