Evolution of geographic variation in thermal performance curves in the face of climate change and implications for biotic interactions

Intraspecific variation in thermal performance curves for early development in Fundulus heteroclitus

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) provide a framework for understanding the effects of temperature on ectotherm performance and fitness. TPCs are often used to test hypotheses regarding local adaptation to temperature or to develop predictions for how organisms will respond to climate warming. However, for aquatic organisms such as fishes, most TPCs have been estimated for adult life stages, and little is known about the shape of TPCs or the potential for thermal adaptation at sensitive embryonic life stages. To examine how latitudinal gradients shape TPCs at early life stages in fishes, we used two populations of Fundulus heteroclitus that have been shown to exhibit latitudinal variation along the thermal cline as adults. We exposed embryos from both northern and southern populations and their reciprocal crosses to eight different temperatures (15°C, 18°C, 21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 33°C, and 36°C) until hatch and examined the effects of developmental temperature on embryonic and larval traits (shape of TPCs, heart rate, and body size). We found that the pure southern embryos had a right-shifted TPC (higher thermal optimum (Topt) for developmental rate, survival, and embryonic growth rate) whereas pure northern embryos had a vertically shifted TPC (higher maximum performance (Pmax) for developmental rate). Differences across larval traits and cross-type were also found, such that northern crosses hatched faster and hatched at a smaller size compared to the pure southern population. Overall, these observed differences in embryonic and larval traits are consistent with patterns of both local adaptation and countergradient variation.

Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest-predator system

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often built upon the "niche conservatism" assumption, such that they ignore the possibility of "evolutionary rescue" and may underestimate species' future range limits under climate change. We select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator-prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species' thermal performances, accounting for biotic interactions. Our study suggests that, without considering evolutionary adaptation, the warming climate will result in a reduction in aphid populations and the extinction of ladybirds in large parts of the United States. However, when incorporating evolutionary adaptation into the model, aphids can adapt to climate change, whereas ladybirds demonstrate geographic variation in their evolutionary rescue potential. Specifically, ladybirds in southern regions are more likely to be rescued than those in the north. In certain northern regions, ladybirds do not avoid extinction due to severe warming trends and seasonality of the climate. While higher warming trends do prompt stronger evolutionary changes in phenotype, they also lead to reduced aphid population abundance such that ecology constrains ladybird population growth. Higher seasonality induces an ecological effect by limiting the length of reproductive season, thereby reducing the capacity for evolutionary rescue. Together, these findings reveal the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in the context of evolutionary adaptation to climate change.

Coherent long-term body-size responses across all Northwest Atlantic herring populations to warming and environmental change despite contrasting harvest and ecological factors

Body size is a key component of individual fitness and an important factor in the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems. Disentangling the effects of environmental change, harvest and intra- and inter-specific trophic effects on body size remains challenging for populations in the wild. Herring in the Northwest Atlantic provide a strong basis for evaluating hypotheses related to these drivers given that they have experienced significant warming and harvest over the past century, while also having been exposed to a wide range of other selective constraints across their range. Using data on mean length-at-age 4 for the sixteen principal populations over a period of 53 cohorts (1962-2014), we fitted a series of empirical models for temporal and between-population variation in the response to changes in sea surface temperature. We find evidence for a unified cross-population response in the form of a parabolic function according to which populations in naturally warmer environments have responded more negatively to increasing temperature compared with those in colder locations. Temporal variation in residuals from this function was highly coherent among populations, further suggesting a common response to a large-scale environmental driver. The synchrony observed in this study system, despite strong differences in harvest and ecological histories among populations and over time, clearly indicates a dominant role of environmental change on size-at-age in wild populations, in contrast to commonly reported effects of fishing. This finding has important implications for the management of fisheries as it indicates that a key trait associated with population productivity may be under considerably less short-term management control than currently assumed. Our study, overall, illustrates the need for a comparative approach within species for inferences concerning the many possible effects on body size of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the wild.

Microgeographic differentiation in thermal and antipredator responses and their carry-over effects across life stages in a damselfly

Global warming and invasive species, separately or combined, can impose a large impact on the condition of native species. However, we know relatively little about how these two factors, individually and in combination, shape phenotypes in ectotherms across life stages and how this can differ between populations. We investigated the non-consumptive predator effects (NCEs) imposed by native (perch) and invasive (signal crayfish) predators experienced only during the egg stage or during both the egg and larval stages in combination with warming on adult life history traits of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. To explore microgeographic differentiation, we compared two nearby populations differing in thermal conditions and predator history. In the absence of predator cues, warming positively affected damselfly survival, possibly because the warmer temperature was closer to the optimal temperature. In the presence of predator cues, warming decreased survival, indicating a synergistic effect of these two variables on survival. In one population, predator cues from perch led to increased survival, especially under the current temperature, likely because of predator stress acclimation phenomena. While warming decreased, predator cues increased larval development time with a proportionally stronger effect of signal crayfish cues experienced during the egg stage, indicating a negative carry-over effect from egg to larva. Warming and predator cues increased mass at emergence, with the predator effect driven mainly by exposure to signal crayfish cues during the egg stage, indicating a positive carry-over effect from egg to adult. Notably, warming and predator effects were not consistent across the two studied populations, suggesting a phenotypic signal of adaptation at a microgeographic scale to thermal conditions and predator history. We also observed pronounced shifts during ontogeny from synergistic (egg and early larval stage) toward additive (late larval stage up to emergence) effects between warming and predator stress. The results point out that population- and life-stage-specific responses in life-history traits to NCEs are needed to predict fitness consequences of exposure to native and invasive predators and warming in prey at a microgeographic scale.

Temperature and intraspecific variation affect host-parasite interactions

Parasites play key roles in regulating aquatic ecosystems, yet the impact of climate warming on their ecology and disease transmission remains poorly understood. Isolating the effect of warming is challenging as transmission involves multiple interacting species and potential intraspecific variation in temperature responses of one or more of these species. Here, we leverage a wide-ranging mosquito species and its facultative parasite as a model system to investigate the impact of temperature on host-parasite interactions and disease transmission. We conducted a common garden experiment measuring parasite growth and infection rates at seven temperatures using 12 field-collected parasite populations and a single mosquito population. We find that both free-living growth rates and infection rates varied with temperature, which were highest at 18-24.5 °C and 13 °C, respectively. Further, we find intraspecific variation in peak performance temperature reflecting patterns of local thermal adaptation-parasite populations from warmer source environments typically had higher thermal optima for free-living growth rates. For infection rates, we found a significant interaction between parasite population and nonlinear effects of temperature. These findings underscore the need to consider both host and parasite thermal responses, as well as intraspecific variation in thermal responses, when predicting the impacts of climate change on disease in aquatic ecosystems.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life-history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1200 km, we found limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations. In particular, the upper thermal limits of all life-history traits varied by less than 3°C across the species range and, for most traits, did not differ significantly between populations. For one life-history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found that maximum environmental temperatures across most of the species' range already regularly exceed the highest upper thermal limits estimated under constant temperatures. This result suggests that strategies for coping with and/or avoiding thermal extremes are likely key components of current and future mosquito thermal tolerance.

How development and survival combine to determine the thermal sensitivity of insects

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) depict variation in vital rates in response to temperature and have been an important tool to understand ecological and evolutionary constraints on the thermal sensitivity of ectotherms. TPCs allow for the calculation of indicators of thermal tolerance, such as minimum, optimum, and maximum temperatures that allow for a given metabolic function. However, these indicators are computed using only responses from surviving individuals, which can lead to underestimation of deleterious effects of thermal stress, particularly at high temperatures. Here, we advocate for an integrative framework for assessing thermal sensitivity, which combines both vital rates and survival probabilities, and focuses on the temperature interval that allows for population persistence. Using a collated data set of Lepidopteran development rate and survival measured on the same individuals, we show that development rate is generally limiting at low temperatures, while survival is limiting at high temperatures. We also uncover differences between life stages and across latitudes, with extended survival at lower temperatures in temperate regions. Our combined performance metric demonstrates similar thermal breadth in temperate and tropical individuals, an effect that only emerges from integration of both development and survival trends. We discuss the benefits of using this framework in future predictive and management contexts.

Effect of temperature on growth, survival, and chronic stress responses of Arctic Grayling juveniles

Arctic Grayling Thymallus arcticus are Holarctically distributed, with a single native population in the conterminous United States occurring in the Big Hole River, Montana, where water temperatures can fluctuate throughout the year from 8 to 18 °C. A gradual increase in mean water temperature has been reported in this river over the past 20 years due to riparian habitat changes and climate change effects. We hypothesized that exposing Arctic Grayling to higher temperatures would result in lower survival, decreased growth, and increased stress responses. Over a 144-day trial, Arctic Grayling juveniles were subjected to water temperatures ranging from 8-26 °C to measure the effects on growth, survival, gene expression and antioxidant enzyme activity. Fish growth increased with increasing water temperature up to 18 °C, beyond which survival was reduced. Fish did not survive at temperatures above 22 °C. In response to temperatures above 16 °C, a 3-fold and 1.5-fold increase in gene expression was observed for superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GPx), respectively, but no changes were seen in the ratio of Heat Shock Protein 70 (HSP70) and heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) expression. Enzyme activities of SOD and GPx also rose at temperatures above 16 °C, indicating heightened oxidative stress. Catalase (CAT) gene expression and enzyme activity decreased with rising temperatures, suggesting a preference for the GPx pathway, as GPx could also be providing help with lipid peroxidation. An increase of Thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) was also recorded, which corresponded with rising temperatures. Our findings thus underscore the vulnerability of Arctic Grayling to minor changes in water temperature. Further increases in mean water temperature could significantly compromise survival of Arctic Grayling in the Big Hole River.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1,200 km, we found remarkably limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations, with the upper thermal limits of fitness varying by <1°C across the species range. For one life history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found environmental temperatures already regularly exceed our highest estimated upper thermal limits throughout most of the species range, suggesting limited potential for mosquito thermal tolerance to evolve on pace with warming. Strategies for avoiding high temperatures such as diapause, phenological shifts, and behavioral thermoregulation are likely important for mosquito persistence.

Temperature and intraspecific variation affect host-parasite interactions

Parasites play key roles in regulating aquatic ecosystems, yet the impact of climate warming on their ecology and disease transmission remains poorly understood. Isolating the effect of warming is challenging as transmission involves multiple interacting species and potential intraspecific variation in temperature responses of one or more of these species. Here, we leverage a wide-ranging mosquito species and its facultative parasite as a model system to investigate the impact of temperature on host-parasite interactions and disease transmission. We conducted a common garden experiment measuring parasite growth and infection rates at seven temperatures using 12 field-collected parasite populations and a single mosquito population. We find that both free-living growth rates and infection rates varied with temperature, which were highest at 18-24.5°C and 13°C, respectively. Further, we find intraspecific variation in peak performance temperature reflecting patterns of local thermal adaptation-parasite populations from warmer source environments typically had higher thermal optima for free-living growth rates. For infection rates, we found a significant interaction between parasite population and nonlinear effects of temperature. These findings underscore the need to consider both host and parasite thermal responses, as well as intraspecific variation in thermal responses, when predicting the impacts of climate change on disease in aquatic ecosystems.

Temperature adaptation and its impact on the shape of performance curves in Drosophila populations

Understanding how species adapt to different temperatures is crucial to predict their response to global warming, and thermal performance curves (TPCs) have been employed recurrently to study this topic. Nevertheless, fundamental questions regarding how thermodynamic constraints and evolution interact to shape TPCs in lineages inhabiting different environments remain unanswered. Here, we study Drosophila simulans along a latitudinal gradient spanning 3000 km to test opposing hypotheses based on thermodynamic constrains (hotter-is-better) versus biochemical adaptation (jack-of-all-temperatures) as primary determinants of TPCs variation across populations. We compare thermal responses in metabolic rate and the egg-to-adult survival as descriptors of organismal performance and fitness, respectively, and show that different descriptors of TPCs vary in tandem with mean environmental temperatures, providing strong support to hotter-is-better. Thermodynamic constraints also resulted in a strong negative association between maximum performance and thermal breadth. Lastly, we show that descriptors of TPCs for metabolism and egg-to-adult survival are highly correlated, providing evidence of co-adaptation, and that curves for egg-to-adult survival are systematically narrower and displaced toward lower temperatures. Taken together, our results support the pervasive role of thermodynamics constraining thermal responses in Drosophila populations along a latitudinal gradient, that are only partly compensated by evolutionary adaptation.

Acute, diel, and annual temperature variability and the thermal biology of ectotherms

Global warming is increasing mean temperatures and altering temperature variability at multiple temporal scales. To better understand the consequences of changes in thermal variability for ectotherms it is necessary to consider thermal variation at different time scales (i.e., acute, diel, and annual) and the responses of organisms within and across generations. Thermodynamics constrain acute responses to temperature, but within these constraints and over longer time periods, organisms have the scope to adaptively acclimate or evolve. Yet, hypotheses and predictions about responses to future warming tend not to explicitly consider the temporal scale at which temperature varies. Here, focusing on multicellular ectothermic animals, we argue that consideration of multiple processes and constraints associated with various timescales is necessary to better understand how altered thermal variability because of climate change will affect ectotherms.

An Integrative Perspective on the Mechanistic Basis of Context Dependent Species Interactions

It has long been known that the outcome of species interactions depends on the environmental context in which they occur. Climate change research has sparked a renewed interest in context dependent species interactions because rapidly changing abiotic environments will cause species interactions to occur in novel contexts and researchers must incorporate this in their predictions of species' responses to climate change. Here we argue that predicting how the environment will alter the outcome of species interactions requires an integrative biology approach that focuses on the traits, mechanisms, and processes that bridge disciplines such as physiology, biomechanics, ecology, and evolutionary biology. Specifically, we advocate for quantifying how species differ in their tolerance and performance to both environmental challenges independent of species interactions, and in interactions with other species as a function of the environment. Such an approach increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying outcomes of species interactions across different environmental contexts. This understanding will in turn help determine how the outcome of species interactions affects the relative abundance and distribution of the interacting species in nature. A general theme that emerges from this perspective is that species are unable to maintain high levels of performance across different environmental contexts because of trade-offs between physiological tolerance to environmental challenges and performance in species interactions. Thus, an integrative biology paradigm that focuses on the trade-offs across environments, the physiological mechanisms involved, and how the ecological context impacts the outcome of species interactions provides a stronger framework to understand why species interactions are context dependent.

A fast pace-of-life is traded off against a high thermal performance

The integration of life-history, behavioural and physiological traits into a ‘pace-of-life syndrome’ is a powerful concept in understanding trait variation in nature. Yet, mechanisms maintaining variation in ‘pace-of-life’ are not well understood. We tested whether decreased thermal performance is an energetic cost of a faster pace-of-life. We characterized the pace-of-life of larvae of the damselfly Ischnura elegans from high-latitude and low-latitude regions when reared at 20°C or 24°C in a common-garden experiment, and estimated thermal performance curves for a set of behavioural, physiological and performance traits. Our results confirm a faster pace-of-life (i.e. faster growth and metabolic rate, more active and bold behaviour) in the low-latitude and in warm-reared larvae, and reveal increased maximum performance, R_max, but not thermal optimum T_opt, in low-latitude larvae. Besides a clear pace-of-life syndrome integration at the individual level, larvae also aligned along a ‘cold–hot’ axis. Importantly, a faster pace-of-life correlated negatively with a high thermal performance (i.e. higher T_opt for swimming speed, metabolic rate, activity and boldness), which was consistent across latitudes and rearing temperatures. This trade-off, potentially driven by the energetically costly maintenance of a fast pace-of-life, may be an alternative mechanism contributing to the maintenance of variation in pace-of-life within populations.

Density-dependent ecosystem service delivery under shifting temperatures by dung beetles

Increases in the frequency and magnitude of suboptimal temperatures as a result of climate change are subjecting insects to unprecedented stresses. This may negatively affect their fitness and the efficiency of their ecosystem service provision. Dung beetles are ecosystem service providers: through feeding on and burying dung, they facilitate nutrient recycling, secondary seed dispersal, parasite control, soil bioturbation and dung decomposition. As such, prediction of how dung beetles respond to multiple anthropogenic environmental changes is critical for the conservation of ecosystem services. Here, we quantified ecosystem services via dung utilisation and dung ball production in three telecoprid species: Allogymnopleurus indigaceous, Scarabaeus zambezianus and Khepher prodigiosus. We examined ecosystem service efficiency factorially under different beetle densities towards different dung masses and under three temperature treatments (21 °C, 28 °C and 35 °C). Khepher prodigiosus, exhibited greatest dung utilisation efficiency overall across dung masses, compared to both S. zambezianus and A. indigaceous. Dung removal was exhibited under all the tested temperatures by all tested species, and therefore the sub-optimal temperatures employed here did not fully inhibit ecosystem service delivery. However, emergent effects among temperatures, beetle species and beetle density further affected removal efficiency: S. zambezianus and A. indigaceous utilisation increased with both warming and beetle density, whereas K. prodigiosus performance was less temperature- and density-dependent. Beetles also tended to exhibit positive density-dependence as dung supply increased. The numbers of dung balls produced differed across species, and increased with temperature and densities, with S. zambezianus producing significantly most balls overall. Our study provides novel evidence for differential density-dependent ecosystem service delivery among species across stressful temperature regimes and emergent effects for dung mass utilisation. This information is essential for biodiversity-ecosystem-function and is critical for the conservation of functionally efficacious species, with implications for natural capital conservation policy in rapidly changing environments.

Half a century of thermal tolerance studies in springtails (Collembola): A review of metrics, spatial and temporal trends

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Metrics used in thermal tolerance studies in Collembola have diversified over time

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Cold tolerance has been assessed more often than heat tolerance

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Fewer data exist for tropical regions, especially for euedaphic and epedaphic organisms

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Thermal tolerances in Neanuridae are not as well-studied as in the other families

Global changes in soil surface temperatures are altering the abundances and distribution ranges of invertebrate species worldwide, including effects on soil microarthropods such as springtails (Collembola), which are vital for maintaining soil health and providing ecosystem services. Studies of thermal tolerance limits in soil invertebrates have the potential to provide information on demographic responses to climate change and guide assessments of possible impacts on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Here, we review the state of knowledge of thermal tolerance limits in Collembola. Thermal tolerance metrics have diversified over time, which should be taken into account when conducting large-scale comparative studies. A temporal trend shows that the estimation of ‘Critical Thermal Limits’ (CTL) is becoming more common than investigations of ‘Supercooling Point’ (SCP), despite the latter being the most widely used metric. Indeed, most studies (66%) in Collembola have focused on cold tolerance; fewer have assessed heat tolerance. The majority of thermal tolerance data are from temperate and polar regions, with fewer assessments from tropical and subtropical latitudes. While the hemiedaphic life form represents the majority of records at low latitudes, euedaphic and epedaphic groups remain largely unsampled in these regions compared to the situation in temperate and high latitude regions, where sampling records show a more balanced distribution among the different life forms. Most CTL data are obtained during the warmest period of the year, whereas SCP and ‘Lethal Temperature’ (LT) show more variation in terms of the season when the data were collected. We conclude that more attention should be given to understudied zoogeographical regions across the tropics, as well as certain less-studied clades such as the family Neanuridae, to identify the role of thermal tolerance limits in the redistribution of species under changing climates.

Variation in thermal performance curves for oxygen consumption and loss of critical behaviors in co-occurring species indicate the potential for ecosystem stability under ocean warming

Species-level differences in responses to environmental factors may increase a community's ability to retain key functions under environmental change. We compared the oxygen consumption rates and maintenance of critical behaviors for three co-occurring intertidal gastropod species over a temperature range of 30 °C. Each species exhibited a distinct thermal performance curve (TPC) for oxygen consumption. The TPC of Lunella granulata was horizontally shifted to be significantly warmer than that of Chlorostoma argyrostoma. Monodonta labio's TPC was vertically shifted compared to the other two species, reflecting greater oxygen consumption overall. L. granulata and M. labio maintained critical behaviors at temperatures 3-5 °C warmer than C. argyrostoma. These differences in the thermal tolerances of similar, co-occurring species provide space for the insurance effect of biodiversity to occur. Understanding the degree to which co-occurring species respond differently to increased temperature may help us predict community resistance in the face of climate change.

Cryptic eco-evolutionary feedback in the city: Urban evolution of prey dampens the effect of urban evolution of the predator

Most research on eco-evolutionary feedbacks focuses on ecological consequences of evolution in a single species. This ignores the fact that evolution in response to a shared environmental factor in multiple species involved in interactions could alter the net cumulative effect of evolution on ecology. We empirically tested whether urbanization-driven evolution in a predator (nymphs of the damselfly Ischnura elegans) and its prey (the water flea Daphnia magna) jointly shape the outcome of predation under simulated heatwaves. Both interactors show genetic trait adaptation to urbanization, particularly to higher temperatures. We cross-exposed common-garden reared damselflies and Daphnia from replicated urban and rural populations, and quantified predation rates and functional response traits. Urban damselfly nymphs showed higher encounter and predation rates than rural damselflies when exposed to rural prey, but this difference disappeared when they preyed on urban Daphnia. This represents a case of a cryptic evo-to-eco feedback, where the evolution of one species dampens the effects of the evolution of another species on their interaction strength. The effects of evolution of each single species were strong: the scenario in which only the predator or prey was adapted to urbanization resulted in a c. 250% increase in encounter rate and a c. 25% increase in predation rate, compared to the rural predator-rural prey combination. Our results provide unique evidence for eco-evolutionary feedbacks in cities, and underscore the importance of a multi-species approach in eco-evolutionary dynamics research.

Evolution of cold tolerance and thermal plasticity in life history, behaviour and physiology during a poleward range expansion

Many species that are moving polewards encounter novel thermal regimes to which they have to adapt. Therefore, rapid evolution of thermal tolerance and of thermal plasticity in fitness-related traits in edge populations can be crucial for the success and speed of range expansions. We tested for adaptation in cold tolerance and in life history, behavioural and physiological traits and their thermal plasticity during a poleward range expansion. We reconstructed the thermal performance curves of life history (survival, growth and development rates), behaviour (food intake) and cold tolerance (chill coma recovery time) in the aquatic larval stage of the damselfly Ischnura elegans that is currently showing a poleward range expansion in northern Europe. We studied larvae from three edge and three core populations using a common-garden experiment. Consistent with the colder annual temperatures, larvae at the expansion front evolved an improved cold tolerance. The edge populations showed no overall (across temperatures) evolution of a faster life history that would improve their range-shifting ability. Moreover, consistent with damselfly edge populations from colder latitudes, edge populations evolved at the highest rearing temperature (28°C) a faster development rate, likely to better exploit the rare periods with higher temperatures. This was associated with a higher food intake and a lower metabolic rate. In conclusion, our results suggest that the edge populations rapidly evolved adaptive changes in trait means and thermal plasticity to the novel thermal conditions at the edge front. Our results highlight the importance of considering besides trait plasticity and the evolution of trait means, also the evolution of trait plasticity to improve forecasts of responses to climate change.

Physiological adaptation to cities as a proxy to forecast global-scale responses to climate change

Cities are emerging as a new venue to overcome the challenges of obtaining data on compensatory responses to climatic warming through phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. In this Review, we highlight how cities can be used to explore physiological trait responses to experimental warming, and also how cities can be used as human-made space-for-time substitutions. We assessed the current literature and found evidence for significant plasticity and evolution in thermal tolerance trait responses to urban heat islands. For those studies that reported both plastic and evolved components of thermal tolerance, we found evidence that both mechanisms contributed to phenotypic shifts in thermal tolerance, rather than plastic responses precluding or limiting evolved responses. Interestingly though, for a broader range of studies, we found that the magnitude of evolved shifts in thermal tolerance was not significantly different from the magnitude of shift in those studies that only reported phenotypic results, which could be a product of evolution, plasticity, or both. Regardless, the magnitude of shifts in urban thermal tolerance phenotypes was comparable to more traditional space-for-time substitutions across latitudinal and altitudinal clines in environmental temperature. We conclude by considering how urban-derived estimates of plasticity and evolution of thermal tolerance traits can be used to improve forecasting methods, including macrophysiological models and species distribution modelling approaches. Finally, we consider areas for further exploration including sub-lethal performance traits and thermal performance curves, assessing the adaptive nature of trait shifts, and taking full advantage of the environmental thermal variation that cities generate.

Climate change alters plant-herbivore interactions

Plant-herbivore interactions have evolved in response to coevolutionary dynamics, along with selection driven by abiotic conditions. We examine how abiotic factors influence trait expression in both plants and herbivores to evaluate how climate change will alter this long-standing interaction. The paleontological record documents increased herbivory during periods of global warming in the deep past. In phylogenetically corrected meta-analyses, we find that elevated temperatures, CO₂ concentrations, drought stress and nutrient conditions directly and indirectly induce greater food consumption by herbivores. Additionally, elevated CO₂ delays herbivore development, but increased temperatures accelerate development. For annual plants, higher temperatures, CO₂ and drought stress increase foliar herbivory. Our meta-analysis also suggests that greater temperatures and drought may heighten florivory in perennials. Human actions are causing concurrent shifts in CO₂ , temperature, precipitation regimes and nitrogen deposition, yet few studies evaluate interactions among these changing conditions. We call for additional multifactorial studies that simultaneously manipulate multiple climatic factors, which will enable us to generate more robust predictions of how climate change could disrupt plant-herbivore interactions. Finally, we consider how shifts in insect and plant phenology and distribution patterns could lead to ecological mismatches, and how these changes may drive future adaptation and coevolution between interacting species.

Pedal to the metal: Cities power evolutionary divergence by accelerating metabolic rate and locomotor performance

Metabolic rates of ectotherms are expected to increase with global trends of climatic warming. But the potential for rapid, compensatory evolution of lower metabolic rate in response to rising temperatures is only starting to be explored. Here, we explored rapid evolution of metabolic rate and locomotor performance in acorn-dwelling ants (Temnothorax curvispinosus) in response to urban heat island effects. We reared ant colonies within a laboratory common garden (25°C) to generate a laboratory-born cohort of workers and tested their acute plastic responses to temperature. Contrary to expectations, urban ants exhibited a higher metabolic rate compared with rural ants when tested at 25°C, suggesting a potentially maladaptive evolutionary response to urbanization. Urban and rural ants had similar metabolic rates when tested at 38°C, as a consequence of a diminished plastic response of the urban ants. Locomotor performance also evolved such that the running speed of urban ants was faster than rural ants under warmer test temperatures (32°C and 42°C) but slower under a cooler test temperature (22°C). The resulting specialist-generalist trade-off and higher thermal optimum for locomotor performance might compensate for evolved increases in metabolic rate by allowing workers to more quickly scout and retrieve resources.

Divergence and constraint in the thermal sensitivity of aquatic insect swimming performance

Environmental temperature variation may play a significant role in the adaptive evolutionary divergence of ectotherm thermal performance curves (TPCs). However, divergence in TPCs may also be constrained due to various causes. Here, we measured TPCs for swimming velocity of temperate and tropical mayflies (Family: Baetidae) and their stonefly predators (Family: Perlidae) from different elevations. We predicted that differences in seasonal climatic regimes would drive divergence in TPCs between temperate and tropical species. Stable tropical temperatures should favor the evolution of "specialists" that perform well across a narrow range of temperatures. Seasonally, variable temperatures in temperate zones, however, should favor "generalists" that perform well across a broad range of temperatures. In phylogenetically paired comparisons of mayflies and stoneflies, swimming speed was generally unaffected by experimental temperature and did not differ among populations between latitudes, suggesting a maintenance of performance breadth across elevation and latitude. An exception was found between temperate and tropical mayflies at low elevation where climatic differences between latitudes are large. In addition, TPCs did not differ between mayflies and their stonefly predators, except at tropical low elevation. Our results indicate that divergence in TPCs may be constrained in aquatic insects except under the most different thermal regimes, perhaps because of trade-offs that reduce thermal sensitivity and increase performance breadth.

High elevation insect communities face shifting ecological and evolutionary landscapes

Climate change is proceeding rapidly in high mountain regions worldwide. Rising temperatures will impact insect physiology and associated fitness and will shift populations in space and time, thereby altering community interactions and composition. Shifts in space are expected as insects move upslope to escape warming temperatures and shifts in time will occur with changes in phenology of resident high-elevation insects. Clearly, spatiotemporal shifts will not affect all species equally. Terrestrial insects may have more opportunities than aquatic insects to exploit microhabitats, potentially buffering them from warming. Such responses of insects to warming may also fuel evolutionary change, including hitchhiking of maladaptive alleles and genetic rescue. Together, these considerations suggest a striking restructuring of high-elevation insect communities that remains largely unstudied.

Thermal evolution of life history and heat tolerance during range expansions toward warmer and cooler regions

Species' range edges are expanding to both warmer and cooler regions. Yet, no studies directly compared the changes in range-limiting traits within the same species during both types of range expansions. To increase our mechanistic understanding of range expansions, it is crucial to disentangle the contributions of plastic and genetic changes in these traits. The aim of this study was to test for plastic and evolutionary changes in heat tolerance, life history, and behavior, and compare these during range expansions toward warmer and cooler regions. Using laboratory experiments we reconstructed the thermal performance curves (TPCurves) of larval life history (survival, growth, and development rates) and larval heat tolerance (CTmax) across two recent range expansions from the core populations in southern France toward a warmer (southeastern Spain) and a cooler (northwestern Spain) region in Europe by the damselfly Ischnura elegans. First-generation larvae from field-collected mothers were reared across a range of temperatures (16°-28°C) in incubators. The range expansion to the warmer region was associated with the evolution of a greater ability to cope with high temperatures (increased mean and thermal plasticity of CTmax), faster development, and, in part, a faster growth, indicating a higher time constraints caused by a shorter time frame available for larval development associated with a transition to a greater voltinism. Our results thereby support the emerging pattern that plasticity in heat tolerance alone is inadequate to adapt to new thermal regimes. The range expansion to the cooler region was associated with faster growth indicating countergradient variation without a change in CTmax. The evolution of a faster growth rate during both range expansions could be explained by a greater digestive efficiency rather than an increased food intake. Our results highlight that range expansions to warmer and cooler regions can result in similar evolutionary changes in the TPCurves for life history, and no opposite changes in heat tolerance.

Quantitative genetics of temperature performance curves of Neurospora crassa

Earth's temperature is increasing due to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions; and organisms need either to adapt to higher temperatures, migrate into colder areas, or face extinction. Temperature affects nearly all aspects of an organism's physiology via its influence on metabolic rate and protein structure, therefore genetic adaptation to increased temperature may be much harder to achieve compared to other abiotic stresses. There is still much to be learned about the evolutionary potential for adaptation to higher temperatures, therefore we studied the quantitative genetics of growth rates in different temperatures that make up the thermal performance curve of the fungal model system Neurospora crassa. We studied the amount of genetic variation for thermal performance curves and examined possible genetic constraints by estimating the G-matrix. We observed a substantial amount of genetic variation for growth in different temperatures, and most genetic variation was for performance curve elevation. Contrary to common theoretical assumptions, we did not find strong evidence for genetic trade-offs for growth between hotter and colder temperatures. We also simulated short-term evolution of thermal performance curves of N. crassa, and suggest that they can have versatile responses to selection.

Using natural laboratories to study evolution to global warming: contrasting altitudinal, latitudinal, and urbanization gradients

Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.

Latitude-associated evolution and drivers of thermal response curves in body stoichiometry

Trait-based studies are needed to understand the plastic and genetic responses of organisms to warming. A neglected organismal trait is elemental composition, despite its potential to cascade into effects on the ecosystem level. Warming is predicted to shape elemental composition through shifts in storage molecules associated with responses in growth, body size and metabolic rate. Our goals were to quantify thermal response patterns in body composition and to obtain insights into their underlying drivers and their evolution across latitudes. We reconstructed the thermal response curves (TRCs) for body elemental composition [C (carbon), N (nitrogen) and the C:N ratio] of damselfly larvae from high- and low-latitude populations. Additionally, we quantified the TRCs for survival, growth and development rates and body size to assess local thermal adaptation, as well as the TRCs for metabolic rate and key macromolecules (proteins, fat, sugars and cuticular melanin and chitin) as these may underlie the elemental TRCs. All larvae died at 36°C. Up to 32°C, low-latitude larvae increased growth and development rates and did not suffer increased mortality. Instead, growth and development rates of high-latitude larvae were lower and levelled off at 24°C, and mortality increased at 32°C. This latitude-associated thermal adaptation pattern matched the 'hotter-is-better' hypothesis. With increasing temperatures, low-latitude larvae decreased C:N, while high-latitude larvae increased C:N. These patterns were driven by associated changes in N contents, while C contents did not respond to temperature. Consistent with the temperature-size rule and the thermal melanism hypothesis, body size and melanin levels decreased with warming. While all traits and associated macromolecules (except for metabolic rate that showed thermal compensation) assumed to underlie thermal responses in elemental composition showed thermal plasticity, these were largely independent and none could explain the stoichiometric TRCs. Our results highlight that thermal responses in elemental composition cannot be explained by traditionally assumed drivers, asking for a broader perspective including the thermal dependence of elemental fluxes. Another key implication is that thermal evolution can reverse the plastic stoichiometric thermal responses and hence reverse how warming may shape food web dynamics through changes in body composition at different latitudes.

Linking thermal adaptation and life-history theory explains latitudinal patterns of voltinism

Insect life cycles are adapted to a seasonal climate by expressing alternative voltinism phenotypes-the number of generations in a year. Variation in voltinism phenotypes along latitudinal gradients may be generated by developmental traits at critical life stages, such as eggs. Both voltinism and egg development are thermally determined traits, yet independently derived models of voltinism and thermal adaptation refer to the evolution of dormancy and thermal sensitivity of development rate, respectively, as independent influences on life history. To reconcile these models and test their respective predictions, we characterized patterns of voltinism and thermal response of egg development rate along a latitudinal temperature gradient using the matchstick grasshopper genus Warramaba. We found remarkably strong variation in voltinism patterns, as well as corresponding egg dormancy patterns and thermal responses of egg development. Our results show that the switch in voltinism along the latitudinal gradient was explained by the combined predictions of the evolution of voltinism and of thermal adaptation. We suggest that latitudinal patterns in thermal responses and corresponding life histories need to consider the evolution of thermal response curves within the context of seasonal temperature cycles rather than based solely on optimality and trade-offs in performance. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.