Predictive Models for Acute Oral Systemic Toxicity: A Workshop to Bridge the Gap from Research to Regulation

VenomPred 2.0: A Novel In Silico Platform for an Extended and Human Interpretable Toxicological Profiling of Small Molecules

The application of artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) methods is becoming increasingly popular in computational toxicology and drug design; it is considered as a promising solution for assessing the safety profile of compounds, particularly in lead optimization and ADMET studies, and to meet the principles of the 3Rs, which calls for the replacement, reduction, and refinement of animal testing. In this context, we herein present the development of VenomPred 2.0 (http://www.mmvsl.it/wp/venompred2/), the new and improved version of our free of charge web tool for toxicological predictions, which now represents a powerful web-based platform for multifaceted and human-interpretable in silico toxicity profiling of chemicals. VenomPred 2.0 presents an extended set of toxicity endpoints (androgenicity, skin irritation, eye irritation, and acute oral toxicity, in addition to the already available carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, hepatotoxicity, and estrogenicity) that can be evaluated through an exhaustive consensus prediction strategy based on multiple ML models. Moreover, we also implemented a new utility based on the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method that allows human interpretable toxicological profiling of small molecules, highlighting the features that strongly contribute to the toxicological predictions in order to derive structural toxicophores.

A guide to the use of bioassays in exploration of natural resources

Bioassays are the main tool to decipher bioactivities from natural resources thus their selection and quality are critical for optimal bioprospecting. They are used both in the early stages of compounds isolation/purification/identification, and in later stages to evaluate their safety and efficacy. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the most common bioassays used in the discovery and development of new bioactive compounds with a focus on marine bioresources. We present a comprehensive list of practical considerations for selecting appropriate bioassays and discuss in detail the bioassays typically used to explore antimicrobial, antibiofilm, cytotoxic, antiviral, antioxidant, and anti-ageing potential. The concept of quality control and bioassay validation are introduced, followed by safety considerations, which are critical to advancing bioactive compounds to a higher stage of development. We conclude by providing an application-oriented view focused on the development of pharmaceuticals, food supplements, and cosmetics, the industrial pipelines where currently known marine natural products hold most potential. We highlight the importance of gaining reliable bioassay results, as these serve as a starting point for application-based development and further testing, as well as for consideration by regulatory authorities.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-it's the end of the tox as we know it (and I feel fine)

The rapid progress of AI impacts diverse scientific disciplines, including toxicology, and has the potential to transform chemical safety evaluation. Toxicology has evolved from an empirical science focused on observing apical outcomes of chemical exposure, to a data-rich field ripe for AI integration. The volume, variety and velocity of toxicological data from legacy studies, literature, high-throughput assays, sensor technologies and omics approaches create opportunities but also complexities that AI can help address. In particular, machine learning is well suited to handle and integrate large, heterogeneous datasets that are both structured and unstructured-a key challenge in modern toxicology. AI methods like deep neural networks, large language models, and natural language processing have successfully predicted toxicity endpoints, analyzed high-throughput data, extracted facts from literature, and generated synthetic data. Beyond automating data capture, analysis, and prediction, AI techniques show promise for accelerating quantitative risk assessment by providing probabilistic outputs to capture uncertainties. AI also enables explanation methods to unravel mechanisms and increase trust in modeled predictions. However, issues like model interpretability, data biases, and transparency currently limit regulatory endorsement of AI. Multidisciplinary collaboration is needed to ensure development of interpretable, robust, and human-centered AI systems. Rather than just automating human tasks at scale, transformative AI can catalyze innovation in how evidence is gathered, data are generated, hypotheses are formed and tested, and tasks are performed to usher new paradigms in chemical safety assessment. Used judiciously, AI has immense potential to advance toxicology into a more predictive, mechanism-based, and evidence-integrated scientific discipline to better safeguard human and environmental wellbeing across diverse populations.

Free and open-source QSAR-ready workflow for automated standardization of chemical structures in support of QSAR modeling

The rapid increase of publicly available chemical structures and associated experimental data presents a valuable opportunity to build robust QSAR models for applications in different fields. However, the common concern is the quality of both the chemical structure information and associated experimental data. This is especially true when those data are collected from multiple sources as chemical substance mappings can contain many duplicate structures and molecular inconsistencies. Such issues can impact the resulting molecular descriptors and their mappings to experimental data and, subsequently, the quality of the derived models in terms of accuracy, repeatability, and reliability. Herein we describe the development of an automated workflow to standardize chemical structures according to a set of standard rules and generate two and/or three-dimensional "QSAR-ready" forms prior to the calculation of molecular descriptors. The workflow was designed in the KNIME workflow environment and consists of three high-level steps. First, a structure encoding is read, and then the resulting in-memory representation is cross-referenced with any existing identifiers for consistency. Finally, the structure is standardized using a series of operations including desalting, stripping of stereochemistry (for two-dimensional structures), standardization of tautomers and nitro groups, valence correction, neutralization when possible, and then removal of duplicates. This workflow was initially developed to support collaborative modeling QSAR projects to ensure consistency of the results from the different participants. It was then updated and generalized for other modeling applications. This included modification of the "QSAR-ready" workflow to generate "MS-ready structures" to support the generation of substance mappings and searches for software applications related to non-targeted analysis mass spectrometry. Both QSAR and MS-ready workflows are freely available in KNIME, via standalone versions on GitHub, and as docker container resources for the scientific community. Scientific contribution: This work pioneers an automated workflow in KNIME, systematically standardizing chemical structures to ensure their readiness for QSAR modeling and broader scientific applications. By addressing data quality concerns through desalting, stereochemistry stripping, and normalization, it optimizes molecular descriptors' accuracy and reliability. The freely available resources in KNIME, GitHub, and docker containers democratize access, benefiting collaborative research and advancing diverse modeling endeavors in chemistry and mass spectrometry.

The application of acute oral toxicity computational models in dangerous goods classification

Acute oral toxicity (AOT) data inform the acute toxicity potential of a compound and guides occupational safety and transportation practices. AOT data enable the categorization of a chemical into the appropriate AOT Globally Harmonized System (GHS) category based on the severity of the hazard. AOT data are also utilized to identify compounds that are Dangerous Goods (DGs) and subsequent transportation guidance for shipping of these hazardous materials. Proper identification of DGs is challenging for novel compounds that lack data. It is not feasible to err on the side of caution for all compounds lacking AOT data and to designate them as DGs, as shipping a compound as a DG has cost, resource, and time implications. With the wealth of available historical AOT data, AOT testing approaches are evolving, and in silico AOT models are emerging as tools that can be utilized with confidence to assess the acute toxicity potential of de novo molecules. Such approaches align with the 3R principles, offering a reduction or even replacement of traditional in vivo testing methods and can also be leveraged for product stewardship purposes. Utilizing proprietary historical in vivo AOT data for 210 pharmaceutical compounds (PCs), we evaluated the performance of two established in silico AOT programs: the Leadscope AOT Model Suite and the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite. These models accurately identified 94% and 97% compounds that were not DGs (GHS categories 4, 5, and not classified (NC)) suggesting that the models are fit-for-purpose in identifying PCs with low acute oral toxicity potential (LD50 >300 mg/kg). Utilization of these models to identify compounds that are not DGs can enable them to be de-prioritized for in vivo testing. This manuscript provides a detailed evaluation and assessment of the two models and recommends the most suitable applications of such models.

What is the ecotoxicity of a given chemical for a given aquatic species? Predicting interactions between species and chemicals using recommender system techniques

Ecotoxicological safety assessment of chemicals requires toxicity data on multiple species, despite the general desire of minimizing animal testing. Predictive models, specifically machine learning (ML) methods, are one of the tools capable of solving this apparent contradiction as they allow to generalize toxicity patterns across chemicals and species. However, despite the availability of large public toxicity datasets, the data is highly sparse, complicating model development. The aim of this study is to provide insights into how ML can predict toxicity using a large but sparse dataset. We developed models to predict LC50-values, based on experimental LC50-data covering 2431 organic chemicals and 1506 aquatic species from the ECOTOX-database. Several well-known ML techniques were evaluated and a new ML model was developed, inspired by recommender systems. This new model involves a simple linear model that learns low-rank interactions between species and chemicals using factorization machines. We evaluated the predictive performances of the developed models based on two validation settings: 1) predicting unseen chemical-species pairs, and 2) predicting unseen chemicals. The results of this study show that ML models can accurately predict LC50-values in both validation settings. Moreover, we show that the novel factorization machine approach can match well-tuned, complex, ML approaches.

International regulatory uses of acute systemic toxicity data and integration of new approach methodologies

Chemical regulatory authorities around the world require systemic toxicity data from acute exposures via the oral, dermal, and inhalation routes for human health risk assessment. To identify opportunities for regulatory uses of non-animal replacements for these tests, we reviewed acute systemic toxicity testing requirements for jurisdictions that participate in the International Cooperation on Alternative Test Methods (ICATM): Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the USA. The chemical sectors included in our review of each jurisdiction were cosmetics, consumer products, industrial chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and pesticides. We found acute systemic toxicity data were most often required for hazard assessment, classification, and labeling, and to a lesser extent quantitative risk assessment. Where animal methods were required, animal reduction methods were typically recommended. For many jurisdictions and chemical sectors, non-animal alternatives are not accepted, but several jurisdictions provide guidance to support the use of test waivers to reduce animal use for specific applications. An understanding of international regulatory requirements for acute systemic toxicity testing will inform ICATM's strategy for the development, acceptance, and implementation of non-animal alternatives to assess the health hazards and risks associated with acute toxicity.

Risk assessment based on dose-responsive and time-responsive genes to build PLS-DA models for exogenously induced lung injury

Xenobiotics can easily harm human lungs owing to the openness of the respiratory system. Identifying pulmonary toxicity remains challenging owing to several reasons: 1) no biomarkers for pulmonary toxicity are available that might help to detect lung injury; 2) traditional animal experiments are time-consuming; 3) traditional detection methods solely focus on poisoning accidents; 4) analytical chemistry methods hardly achieve universal detection. An in vitro testing system able to identify the pulmonary toxicity of contaminants from food, the environment, and drugs is urgently needed. Compounds are virtually infinite, whereas toxicological mechanisms are countable. Therefore, universal methods to identify and predict the risks of contaminants can be designed based on these well-known toxicity mechanisms. In this study, we established a dataset based on transcriptome sequencing of A549 cells upon treatment with different compounds. The representativeness of our dataset was analyzed using bioinformatics methods. Artificial intelligence methods, namely partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) models, were employed for toxicity prediction and toxicant identification. The developed model predicted the pulmonary toxicity of compounds with a 92 % accuracy. These models were submitted to an external validation using highly heterogeneous compounds, which supported the accuracy and robustness of our developed methodology. This assay exhibits universal potential applications for water quality monitoring, crop pollution detection, food and drug safety evaluation, as well as chemical warfare agent detection.

Artificial Intelligence in Drug Toxicity Prediction: Recent Advances, Challenges, and Future Perspectives

Toxicity prediction is a critical step in the drug discovery process that helps identify and prioritize compounds with the greatest potential for safe and effective use in humans, while also reducing the risk of costly late-stage failures. It is estimated that over 30% of drug candidates are discarded owing to toxicity. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) has been used to improve drug toxicity prediction as it provides more accurate and efficient methods for identifying the potentially toxic effects of new compounds before they are tested in human clinical trials, thus saving time and money. In this review, we present an overview of recent advances in AI-based drug toxicity prediction, including the use of various machine learning algorithms and deep learning architectures, of six major toxicity properties and Tox21 assay end points. Additionally, we provide a list of public data sources and useful toxicity prediction tools for the research community and highlight the challenges that must be addressed to enhance model performance. Finally, we discuss future perspectives for AI-based drug toxicity prediction. This review can aid researchers in understanding toxicity prediction and pave the way for new methods of drug discovery.

Quantifying Functional-Group-like Structural Fragments in Molecules and Its Applications in Drug Design

A functional group in a molecule is a structural fragment consisting of a few atoms or a single atom that imparts reactivity to a molecule. Hence, defining functional groups is crucial in chemistry to predict the properties and reactivities of molecules. However, there is no established method in the literature for defining functional groups based on reactivity parameters. In this work, we addressed this issue by designing a set of predefined structural fragments along with reactivity parameters like electron conjugation and ring strain. This approach uses bond orders and atom connectivities to quantify the presence of these fragments within an organic molecule based on a given input molecular coordinate. To assess the effectiveness of this approach, we performed a case study to show the benefits of using these newly designed structural fragments instead of traditional fingerprint-based methods for grouping potential COX1/COX2 inhibitors by screening an approved drug library against aspirin molecule. The structural fragment-based model for ternary classification of rat oral LD₅₀ of chemicals showed performance similar to the fingerprint-based models. In evaluating the regression model performance for aqueous solubility, log(S), predictions, our approach outperformed the fingerprint-based model.

Predicting Dose-Range Chemical Toxicity using Novel Hybrid Deep Machine-Learning Method

Humans are exposed to thousands of chemicals, including environmental chemicals. Unfortunately, little is known about their potential toxicity, as determining the toxicity remains challenging due to the substantial resources required to assess a chemical in vivo. Here, we present a novel hybrid neural network (HNN) deep learning method, called HNN-Tox, to predict chemical toxicity at different doses. To develop a hybrid HNN-Tox method, we combined two neural network frameworks, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and the multilayer perceptron (MLP)-type feed-forward neural network (FFNN). Combining the CNN and FCNN in the field of environmental chemical toxicity prediction is a novel approach. We developed several binary and multiclass classification models to assess dose-range chemical toxicity that is trained based on thousands of chemicals with known toxicity. The performance of the HNN-Tox was compared with other machine-learning methods, including Random Forest (RF), Bootstrap Aggregation (Bagging), and Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost). We also analyzed the model performance dependency on varying features, descriptors, dataset size, route of exposure, and toxic dose. The HNN-Tox model, trained on 59,373 chemicals annotated with known LD50 and routes of exposure, maintained its predictive ability with an accuracy of 84.9% and 84.1%, even after reducing the descriptor size from 318 to 51, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. Further, we validated the HNN-Tox with several external toxic chemical datasets on a large scale. The HNN-Tox performed optimally or better than the other machine-learning methods for diverse chemicals. This study is the first to report a large-scale prediction of dose-range chemical toxicity with varying features. The HNN-Tox has broad applicability in predicting toxicity for diverse chemicals and could serve as an alternative methodology approach to animal-based toxicity assessment.

Principles and Procedures for Assessment of Acute Toxicity Incorporating In Silico Methods

Acute toxicity in silico models are being used to support an increasing number of application areas including (1) product research and development, (2) product approval and registration as well as (3) the transport, storage and handling of chemicals. The adoption of such models is being hindered, in part, because of a lack of guidance describing how to perform and document an in silico analysis. To address this issue, a framework for an acute toxicity hazard assessment is proposed. This framework combines results from different sources including in silico methods and in vitro or in vivo experiments. In silico methods that can assist the prediction of in vivo outcomes (i.e., LD50) are analyzed concluding that predictions obtained using in silico approaches are now well-suited for reliably supporting assessment of LD50-based acute toxicity for the purpose of GHS classification. A general overview is provided of the endpoints from in vitro studies commonly evaluated for predicting acute toxicity (e.g., cytotoxicity/cytolethality as well as assays targeting specific mechanisms). The increased understanding of pathways and key triggering mechanisms underlying toxicity and the increased availability of in vitro data allow for a shift away from assessments solely based on endpoints such as LD50, to mechanism-based endpoints that can be accurately assessed in vitro or by using in silico prediction models. This paper also highlights the importance of an expert review of all available information using weight-of-evidence considerations and illustrates, using a series of diverse practical use cases, how in silico approaches support the assessment of acute toxicity.

Mapping Mechanistic Pathways of Acute Oral Systemic Toxicity Using Chemical Structure and Bioactivity Measurements

Regulatory agencies around the world have committed to reducing or eliminating animal testing for establishing chemical safety. Adverse outcome pathways can facilitate replacement by providing a mechanistic framework for identifying the appropriate non-animal methods and connecting them to apical adverse outcomes. This study separated 11,992 chemicals with curated rat oral acute toxicity information into clusters of structurally similar compounds. Each cluster was then assigned one or more ToxCast/Tox21 assays by looking for the minimum number of assays required to record at least one positive hit call below cytotoxicity for all acutely toxic chemicals in the cluster. When structural information is used to select assays for testing, none of the chemicals required more than four assays and 98% required two assays or less. Both the structure-based clusters and activity from the associated assays were significantly associated with the GHS toxicity classification of the chemicals, which suggests that a combination of bioactivity and structural information could be as reproducible as traditional in vivo studies. Predictivity is improved when the in vitro assay directly corresponds to the mechanism of toxicity, but many indirect assays showed promise as well. Given the lower cost of in vitro testing, a small assay battery including both general cytotoxicity assays and two or more orthogonal assays targeting the toxicological mechanism could be used to improve performance further. This approach illustrates the promise of combining existing in silico approaches, such as the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS), with structure-based bioactivity information as part of an efficient tiered testing strategy that can reduce or eliminate animal testing for acute oral toxicity.

STopTox: An in Silico Alternative to Animal Testing for Acute Systemic and Topical Toxicity

BACKGROUND

Modern chemical toxicology is facing a growing need to Reduce, Refine, and Replace animal tests (Russell 1959) for hazard identification. The most common type of animal assays for acute toxicity assessment of chemicals used as pesticides, pharmaceuticals, or in cosmetic products is known as a "6-pack" battery of tests, including three topical (skin sensitization, skin irritation and corrosion, and eye irritation and corrosion) and three systemic (acute oral toxicity, acute inhalation toxicity, and acute dermal toxicity) end points.

METHODS

We compiled, curated, and integrated, to the best of our knowledge, the largest publicly available data sets and developed an ensemble of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for all six end points. All models were validated according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) QSAR principles, using data on compounds not included in the training sets.

RESULTS

In addition to high internal accuracy assessed by cross-validation, all models demonstrated an external correct classification rate ranging from 70% to 77%. We established a publicly accessible Systemic and Topical chemical Toxicity (STopTox) web portal (https://stoptox.mml.unc.edu/) integrating all developed models for 6-pack assays.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed STopTox, a comprehensive collection of computational models that can be used as an alternative to in vivo 6-pack tests for predicting the toxicity hazard of small organic molecules. Models were established following the best practices for the development and validation of QSAR models. Scientists and regulators can use the STopTox portal to identify putative toxicants or nontoxicants in chemical libraries of interest. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9341.

The use of Bayesian methodology in the development and validation of a tiered assessment approach towards prediction of rat acute oral toxicity

There exists consensus that the traditional means by which safety of chemicals is assessed—namely through reliance upon apical outcomes obtained following in vivo testing—is increasingly unfit for purpose. Whilst efforts in development of suitable alternatives continue, few have achieved levels of robustness required for regulatory acceptance. An array of “new approach methodologies” (NAM) for determining toxic effect, spanning in vitro and in silico spheres, have by now emerged. It has been suggested, intuitively, that combining data obtained from across these sources might serve to enhance overall confidence in derived judgment. This concept may be formalised in the “tiered assessment” approach, whereby evidence gathered through a sequential NAM testing strategy is exploited so to infer the properties of a compound of interest. Our intention has been to provide an illustration of how such a scheme might be developed and applied within a practical setting—adopting for this purpose the endpoint of rat acute oral lethality. Bayesian statistical inference is drawn upon to enable quantification of degree of confidence that a substance might ultimately belong to one of five LD50-associated toxicity categories. Informing this is evidence acquired both from existing in silico and in vitro resources, alongside a purposely-constructed random forest model and structural alert set. Results indicate that the combination of in silico methodologies provides moderately conservative estimations of hazard, conducive for application in safety assessment, and for which levels of certainty are defined. Accordingly, scope for potential extension of approach to further toxicological endpoints is demonstrated.

In Silico Models for Predicting Acute Systemic Toxicity

In this chapter, we give a brief overview of the regulatory requirements for acute systemic toxicity information in the European Union, and we review structure-based computational models that are available and potentially useful in the assessment of acute systemic toxicity. Emphasis is placed on quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models implemented by means of a range of software tools. The most recently published literature models for acute systemic toxicity are also discussed, and perspectives for future developments in this field are offered.

Evaluation of the predictivity of Acute Oral Toxicity (AOT) structure-activity relationship models

Several public efforts are aimed at discovering patterns or classifiers in the high-dimensional bioactivity space that predict tissue, organ or whole animal toxicological endpoints. The current study sought to assess and compare the predictions of the Globally Harmonized System (GHS) categories and Dangerous Goods (DG) classifications based on Lethal Dose (LD50) from several available tools (ACD/Labs, Leadscope, T.E.S.T., CATMoS, CaseUltra). External validation was done using dataset of 375 substances to demonstrate their predictive capacity. All models showed very good performance for identifying non-toxic compounds, which would be useful for DG classification, developing or triaging new chemicals, prioritizing existing chemicals for more detailed and rigorous toxicity assessments, and assessing non-active pharmaceutical intermediates. This would ultimately reduce animal use and improve risk assessments. Category-to-category prediction was not optimal, mainly due to the tendency to overpredict the outcome and the general limitations of acute oral toxicity (AOT) in vivo studies. Overprediction does not specifically pose a risk to human health, it can impact transport and material packaging requirements. Performance for compounds with LD50 ≤ 300 mg/kg (approx. 5% of the dataset) was the poorest among all groups and could be potentially improved by including expert review and read-across to similar substances.

Uncertainty-Informed Deep Transfer Learning of Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Toxicity

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pose a significant hazard because of their widespread industrial uses, environmental persistence, and bioaccumulation. A growing, increasingly diverse inventory of PFAS, including 8163 chemicals, has recently been updated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, with the exception of a handful of well-studied examples, little is known about their human toxicity potential because of the substantial resources required for in vivo toxicity experiments. We tackle the problem of expensive in vivo experiments by evaluating multiple machine learning (ML) methods, including random forests, deep neural networks (DNN), graph convolutional networks, and Gaussian processes, for predicting acute toxicity (e.g., median lethal dose, or LD₅₀) of PFAS compounds. To address the scarcity of toxicity information for PFAS, publicly available datasets of oral rat LD₅₀ for all organic compounds are aggregated and used to develop state-of-the-art ML source models for transfer learning. A total of 519 fluorinated compounds containing two or more C-F bonds with known toxicity are used for knowledge transfer to ensembles of the best-performing source model, DNN, to generate the target models for the PFAS domain with access to uncertainty. This study predicts toxicity for PFAS with a defined chemical structure. To further inform prediction confidence, the transfer-learned model is embedded within a SelectiveNet architecture, where the model is allowed to identify regions of prediction with greater confidence and abstain from those with high uncertainty using a calibrated cutoff rate.

Revealing Adverse Outcome Pathways from Public High-Throughput Screening Data to Evaluate New Toxicants by a Knowledge-Based Deep Neural Network Approach

Traditional experimental testing to identify endocrine disruptors that enhance estrogenic signaling relies on expensive and labor-intensive experiments. We sought to design a knowledge-based deep neural network (k-DNN) approach to reveal and organize public high-throughput screening data for compounds with nuclear estrogen receptor α and β (ERα and ERβ) binding potentials. The target activity was rodent uterotrophic bioactivity driven by ERα/ERβ activations. After training, the resultant network successfully inferred critical relationships among ERα/ERβ target bioassays, shown as weights of 6521 edges between 1071 neurons. The resultant network uses an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework to mimic the signaling pathway initiated by ERα and identify compounds that mimic endogenous estrogens (i.e., estrogen mimetics). The k-DNN can predict estrogen mimetics by activating neurons representing several events in the ERα/ERβ signaling pathway. Therefore, this virtual pathway model, starting from a compound's chemistry initiating ERα activation and ending with rodent uterotrophic bioactivity, can efficiently and accurately prioritize new estrogen mimetics (AUC = 0.864-0.927). This k-DNN method is a potential universal computational toxicology strategy to utilize public high-throughput screening data to characterize hazards and prioritize potentially toxic compounds.

CATMoS: Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite

BACKGROUND

Humans are exposed to tens of thousands of chemical substances that need to be assessed for their potential toxicity. Acute systemic toxicity testing serves as the basis for regulatory hazard classification, labeling, and risk management. However, it is cost- and time-prohibitive to evaluate all new and existing chemicals using traditional rodent acute toxicity tests. In silico models built using existing data facilitate rapid acute toxicity predictions without using animals.

OBJECTIVES

The U.S. Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM) Acute Toxicity Workgroup organized an international collaboration to develop in silico models for predicting acute oral toxicity based on five different end points: Lethal Dose 50 (LD50 value, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazard (four) categories, Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labeling hazard (five) categories, very toxic chemicals [LD50 (LD50≤50mg/kg)], and nontoxic chemicals (LD50>2,000mg/kg).

METHODS

An acute oral toxicity data inventory for 11,992 chemicals was compiled, split into training and evaluation sets, and made available to 35 participating international research groups that submitted a total of 139 predictive models. Predictions that fell within the applicability domains of the submitted models were evaluated using external validation sets. These were then combined into consensus models to leverage strengths of individual approaches.

RESULTS

The resulting consensus predictions, which leverage the collective strengths of each individual model, form the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS). CATMoS demonstrated high performance in terms of accuracy and robustness when compared with in vivo results.

DISCUSSION

CATMoS is being evaluated by regulatory agencies for its utility and applicability as a potential replacement for in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies. CATMoS predictions for more than 800,000 chemicals have been made available via the National Toxicology Program's Integrated Chemical Environment tools and data sets (ice.ntp.niehs.nih.gov). The models are also implemented in a free, standalone, open-source tool, OPERA, which allows predictions of new and untested chemicals to be made. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8495.

Large-Scale Modeling of Multispecies Acute Toxicity End Points Using Consensus of Multitask Deep Learning Methods

Computational methods to predict molecular properties regarding safety and toxicology represent alternative approaches to expedite drug development, screen environmental chemicals, and thus significantly reduce associated time and costs. There is a strong need and interest in the development of computational methods that yield reliable predictions of toxicity, and many approaches, including the recently introduced deep neural networks, have been leveraged towards this goal. Herein, we report on the collection, curation, and integration of data from the public data sets that were the source of the ChemIDplus database for systemic acute toxicity. These efforts generated the largest publicly available such data set comprising > 80,000 compounds measured against a total of 59 acute systemic toxicity end points. This data was used for developing multiple single- and multitask models utilizing random forest, deep neural networks, convolutional, and graph convolutional neural network approaches. For the first time, we also reported the consensus models based on different multitask approaches. To the best of our knowledge, prediction models for 36 of the 59 end points have never been published before. Furthermore, our results demonstrated a significantly better performance of the consensus model obtained from three multitask learning approaches that particularly predicted the 29 smaller tasks (less than 300 compounds) better than other models developed in the study. The curated data set and the developed models have been made publicly available at https://github.com/ncats/ld50-multitask, https://predictor.ncats.io/, and https://cactus.nci.nih.gov/download/acute-toxicity-db (data set only) to support regulatory and research applications.

Saagar-A New, Extensible Set of Molecular Substructures for QSAR/QSPR and Read-Across Predictions

Molecular structure-based predictive models provide a proven alternative to costly and inefficient animal testing. However, due to a lack of interpretability of predictive models built with abstract molecular descriptors they have earned the notoriety of being black boxes. Interpretable models require interpretable descriptors to provide chemistry-backed predictive reasoning and facilitate intelligent molecular design. We developed a novel set of extensible chemistry-aware substructures, Saagar, to support interpretable predictive models and read-across protocols. Performance of Saagar in chemical characterization and search for structurally similar actives for read-across applications was compared with four publicly available fingerprint sets (MACCS (166), PubChem (881), ECFP4 (1024), ToxPrint (729)) in three benchmark sets (MUV, ULS, and Tox21) spanning ∼145 000 compounds and 78 molecular targets at 1%, 2%, 5%, and 10% false discovery rates. In 18 of the 20 comparisons, interpretable Saagar features performed better than the publicly available, but less interpretable and fixed-bit length, fingerprints. Examples are provided to show the enhanced capability of Saagar in extracting compounds with higher scaffold similarity. Saagar features are interpretable and efficiently characterize diverse chemical collections, thus making them a better choice for building interpretable predictive in silico models and read-across protocols.

A cross-industry collaboration to assess if acute oral toxicity (Q)SAR models are fit-for-purpose for GHS classification and labelling

This study assesses whether currently available acute oral toxicity (AOT) in silico models, provided by the widely employed Leadscope software, are fit-for-purpose for categorization and labelling of chemicals. As part of this study, a large data set of proprietary and marketed compounds from multiple companies (pharmaceutical, plant protection products, and other chemical industries) was assembled to assess the models' performance. The absolute percentage of correct or more conservative predictions, based on a comparison of experimental and predicted GHS categories, was approximately 95%, after excluding a small percentage of inconclusive (indeterminate or out of domain) predictions. Since the frequency distribution across the experimental categories is skewed towards low toxicity chemicals, a balanced assessment was also performed. Across all compounds which could be assigned to a well-defined experimental category, the average percentage of correct or more conservative predictions was around 80%. These results indicate the potential for reliable and broad application of these models across different industrial sectors. This manuscript describes the evaluation of these models, highlights the importance of an expert review, and provides guidance on the use of AOT models to fulfill testing requirements, GHS classification/labelling, and transportation needs.

In Silico Assessment of Acute Oral Toxicity for Mixtures

While exposure of humans to environmental hazards often occurs with complex chemical mixtures, the majority of existing toxicity data are for single compounds. The Globally Harmonized System of chemical classification (GHS) developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development uses the additivity formula for acute oral toxicity classification of mixtures, which is based on the acute toxicity estimate of individual ingredients. We evaluated the prediction of GHS category classifications for mixtures using toxicological data collected in the Integrated Chemical Environment (ICE) developed by the National Toxicology Program (United States Department of Health and Human Services). The ICE database contains in vivo acute oral toxicity data for ∼10,000 chemicals and for 582 mixtures with one or multiple active ingredients. By using the available experimental data for individual ingredients, we were able to calculate a GHS category for only half of the mixtures. To expand a set of components with acute oral toxicity data, we used the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS) implemented in the Open Structure-Activity/Property Relationship App to make predictions for active ingredients without available experimental data. As a result, we were able to make predictions for 503 mixtures/formulations with 72% accuracy for the GHS classification. For 186 mixtures with two or more active ingredients, the accuracy rate was 76%. The structure-based analysis of the misclassified mixtures did not reveal any specific structural features associated with the mispredictions. Our results demonstrate that CATMoS together with an additivity formula can be used to predict the GHS category for chemical mixtures.

The performance, reliability and potential application of in silico models for predicting the acute oral toxicity of pharmaceutical compounds

Acute oral toxicity (AOT) information is utilized to categorize compounds according to the severity of their hazard and used to inform risk assessments for human health and the environment. Given the wealth of historical AOT information and technological advances, in silico models are being created and evaluated as potential tools to predict the AOT of compounds and reduce reliance on animal testing. Utilizing a historical database of AOT data on 371 Bristol Myers Squibb pharmaceutical compounds (PCs) (195 pharmaceutical intermediates and 176 active pharmaceutical ingredients), we evaluated two pioneering in silico AOT programs: the Leadscope Acute Oral Toxicity Model Suite and the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite. These models demonstrated a high degree of agreement with the in vivo results as well as a high level of sensitivity. We found that these models can be effectively utilized to identify PCs which are of low acute oral toxicity (LD₅₀ > 2000 mg/kg), PCs which should not be classified as Dangerous Goods (LD₅₀ > 300 mg/kg), and can assist in identifying a starting dose for in vivo AOT studies. This manuscript provides an evaluation of the performance of these in silico models and proposes use cases where these in silico models can be most confidently and effectively employed.

An evaluation of the performance of selected (Q)SARs/expert systems for predicting acute oral toxicity

Multiple US agencies use acute oral toxicity data in a variety of regulatory contexts. One of the ad-hoc groups that the US Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM) established to implement the ICCVAM Strategic Roadmap was the Acute Toxicity Workgroup (ATWG) to support the development, acceptance, and actualisation of new approach methodologies (NAMs). One of the ATWG charges was to evaluate in vitro and in silico methods for predicting rat acute systemic toxicity. Collaboratively, the NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods (NICEATM) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) collected a large body of rat oral acute toxicity data (~16,713 studies for 11,992 substances) to serve as a reference set to evaluate the performance and coverage of new and existing models as well as build understanding of the inherent variability of the animal data. Here, we focus on evaluating in silico models for predicting the Lethal Dose (LD50) as implemented within two expert systems, TIMES and TEST. The performance and coverage were evaluated against the reference dataset. The performance of both models were similar, but TEST was able to make predictions for more chemicals than TIMES. The subset of the data with multiple (>3) LD50 values was used to evaluate the variability in data and served as a benchmark to compare model performance. Enrichment analysis was conducted using ToxPrint chemical fingerprints to identify the types of chemicals where predictions lay outside the upper 95% confidence interval. Overall, TEST and TIMES models performed similarly but had different chemical features associated with low accuracy predictions, reaffirming that these models are complementary and both worth evaluation when seeking to predict rat LD50 values.

An integrated chemical environment with tools for chemical safety testing

Moving toward species-relevant chemical safety assessments and away from animal testing requires access to reliable data to develop and build confidence in new approaches. The Integrated Chemical Environment (ICE) provides tools and curated data centered around chemical safety assessment. This article describes updates to ICE, including improved accessibility and interpretability of in vitro data via mechanistic target mapping and enhanced interactive tools for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE). Mapping of in vitro assay targets to toxicity endpoints of regulatory importance uses literature-based mode-of-action information and controlled terminology from existing knowledge organization systems to support data interoperability with external resources. The most recent ICE update includes Tox21 high-throughput screening data curated using analytical chemistry data and assay-specific parameters to eliminate potential artifacts or unreliable activity. Also included are physicochemical/ADME parameters for over 800,000 chemicals predicted by quantitative structure-activity relationship models. These parameters are used by the new ICE IVIVE tool in combination with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's httk R package to estimate in vivo exposures corresponding to in vitro bioactivity concentrations from stored or user-defined assay data. These new ICE features allow users to explore the applications of an expanded data space and facilitate building confidence in non-animal approaches.

Bringing Big Data to Bear in Environmental Public Health: Challenges and Recommendations

Understanding the role that the environment plays in influencing public health often involves collecting and studying large, complex data sets. There have been a number of private and public efforts to gather sufficient information and confront significant unknowns in the field of environmental public health, yet there is a persistent and largely unmet need for findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) data. Even when data are readily available, the ability to create, analyze, and draw conclusions from these data using emerging computational tools, such as augmented and artificial inteligence (AI) and machine learning, requires technical skills not currently implemented on a programmatic level across research hubs and academic institutions. We argue that collaborative efforts in data curation and storage, scientific computing, and training are of paramount importance to empower researchers within environmental sciences and the broader public health community to apply AI approaches and fully realize their potential. Leaders in the field were asked to prioritize challenges in incorporating big data in environmental public health research: inconsistent implementation of FAIR principles in data collection and sharing, a lack of skilled data scientists and appropriate cyber-infrastructures, and limited understanding of possibilities and communication of benefits were among those identified. These issues are discussed, and actionable recommendations are provided.

CoMPARA: Collaborative Modeling Project for Androgen Receptor Activity

BACKGROUND

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are xenobiotics that mimic the interaction of natural hormones and alter synthesis, transport, or metabolic pathways. The prospect of EDCs causing adverse health effects in humans and wildlife has led to the development of scientific and regulatory approaches for evaluating bioactivity. This need is being addressed using high-throughput screening (HTS) in vitro approaches and computational modeling.

OBJECTIVES

In support of the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) led two worldwide consortiums to virtually screen chemicals for their potential estrogenic and androgenic activities. Here, we describe the Collaborative Modeling Project for Androgen Receptor Activity (CoMPARA) efforts, which follows the steps of the Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP).

METHODS

The CoMPARA list of screened chemicals built on CERAPP's list of 32,464 chemicals to include additional chemicals of interest, as well as simulated ToxCast™ metabolites, totaling 55,450 chemical structures. Computational toxicology scientists from 25 international groups contributed 91 predictive models for binding, agonist, and antagonist activity predictions. Models were underpinned by a common training set of 1,746 chemicals compiled from a combined data set of 11 ToxCast™/Tox21 HTS in vitro assays.

RESULTS

The resulting models were evaluated using curated literature data extracted from different sources. To overcome the limitations of single-model approaches, CoMPARA predictions were combined into consensus models that provided averaged predictive accuracy of approximately 80% for the evaluation set.

DISCUSSION

The strengths and limitations of the consensus predictions were discussed with example chemicals; then, the models were implemented into the free and open-source OPERA application to enable screening of new chemicals with a defined applicability domain and accuracy assessment. This implementation was used to screen the entire EPA DSSTox database of ∼875,000 chemicals, and their predicted AR activities have been made available on the EPA CompTox Chemicals dashboard and National Toxicology Program's Integrated Chemical Environment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5580.

CoMPARA: Collaborative Modeling Project for Androgen Receptor Activity

BACKGROUND

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are xenobiotics that mimic the interaction of natural hormones and alter synthesis, transport, or metabolic pathways. The prospect of EDCs causing adverse health effects in humans and wildlife has led to the development of scientific and regulatory approaches for evaluating bioactivity. This need is being addressed using high-throughput screening (HTS) in vitro approaches and computational modeling.

OBJECTIVES

In support of the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) led two worldwide consortiums to virtually screen chemicals for their potential estrogenic and androgenic activities. Here, we describe the Collaborative Modeling Project for Androgen Receptor Activity (CoMPARA) efforts, which follows the steps of the Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP).

METHODS

The CoMPARA list of screened chemicals built on CERAPP's list of 32,464 chemicals to include additional chemicals of interest, as well as simulated ToxCast™ metabolites, totaling 55,450 chemical structures. Computational toxicology scientists from 25 international groups contributed 91 predictive models for binding, agonist, and antagonist activity predictions. Models were underpinned by a common training set of 1,746 chemicals compiled from a combined data set of 11 ToxCast™/Tox21 HTS in vitro assays.

RESULTS

The resulting models were evaluated using curated literature data extracted from different sources. To overcome the limitations of single-model approaches, CoMPARA predictions were combined into consensus models that provided averaged predictive accuracy of approximately 80% for the evaluation set.

DISCUSSION

The strengths and limitations of the consensus predictions were discussed with example chemicals; then, the models were implemented into the free and open-source OPERA application to enable screening of new chemicals with a defined applicability domain and accuracy assessment. This implementation was used to screen the entire EPA DSSTox database of ∼ 875,000 chemicals, and their predicted AR activities have been made available on the EPA CompTox Chemicals dashboard and National Toxicology Program's Integrated Chemical Environment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5580.

Prediction of Acute Oral Systemic Toxicity Using a Multifingerprint Similarity Approach

The implementation of nonanimal approaches is of particular importance to regulatory agencies for the prediction of potential hazards associated with acute exposures to chemicals. This work was carried out in the framework of an international modeling initiative organized by the Acute Toxicity Workgroup (ATWG) of the Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM) with the participation of 32 international groups across government, industry, and academia. Our contribution was to develop a multifingerprints similarity approach for predicting five relevant toxicology endpoints related to the acute oral systemic toxicity that are: the median lethal dose (LD50) point prediction, the "nontoxic" (LD50 > 2000 mg/kg) and "very toxic" (LD50<50 mg/kg) binary classification, and the multiclass categorization of chemicals based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labeling of Chemicals schemes. Provided by the ICCVAM's ATWG, the training set used to develop the models consisted of 8944 chemicals having high-quality rat acute oral lethality data. The proposed approach integrates the results coming from a similarity search based on 19 different fingerprint definitions to return a consensus prediction value. Moreover, the herein described algorithm is tailored to properly tackling the so-called toxicity cliffs alerting that a large gap in LD50 values exists despite a high structural similarity for a given molecular pair. An external validation set made available by ICCVAM and consisting in 2896 chemicals was employed to further evaluate the selected models. This work returned high-accuracy predictions based on the evaluations conducted by ICCVAM's ATWG.

Transitioning the Generalised Read-Across approach (GenRA) to quantitative predictions: A case study using acute oral toxicity data

Read-across approaches continue to evolve as does their utility in the field of risk assessment. Previously we presented our generalised read-across (GenRA) approach (Shah et al., 2016), which utilises chemical descriptor and/or in vitro bioactivity data to make read-across predictions on the basis of the similarity weighted average of nearest neighbours. The current public version of GenRA predicts 574 apical outcomes as a binary call from repeat dose toxicity studies available in ToxRefDB (Helman et al., 2019). Here we investigated the application of GenRA to quantitative values, specifically using a large dataset of rat oral acute LD50 toxicity data (LD50 values for 7011 discrete chemicals) that had been collected under the auspices of the ICCVAM acute toxicity workgroup (ATWG). GenRA LD50 predictions were made based on the following criteria - chemicals were characterised by Morgan chemical fingerprints with a minimum similarity threshold of 0.5 and a maximum of 10 nearest neighbours over the entire dataset. An R² value of 0.61 and RMSE of 0.58 was achieved based on these parameters. Monte Carlo cross validation was then used to estimate confidence in the R². Cross validated R² values were found to fall in the range of 0.47 to 0.62. However, when evaluating GenRA locally to clusters of mechanistically or structurally-similar chemicals, average R² values improved up to 0.91. GenRA can be extended to make reasonable quantitative predictions of acute oral rodent toxicity with improved performance exhibited for specific local domains.

SAR and QSAR modeling of a large collection of LD50 rat acute oral toxicity data

The median lethal dose for rodent oral acute toxicity (LD50) is a standard piece of information required to categorize chemicals in terms of the potential hazard posed to human health after acute exposure. The exclusive use of in vivo testing is limited by the time and costs required for performing experiments and by the need to sacrifice a number of animals. (Quantitative) structure-activity relationships [(Q)SAR] proved a valid alternative to reduce and assist in vivo assays for assessing acute toxicological hazard. In the framework of a new international collaborative project, the NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Center for Computational Toxicology compiled a large database of rat acute oral LD50 data, with the aim of supporting the development of new computational models for predicting five regulatory relevant acute toxicity endpoints. In this article, a series of regression and classification computational models were developed by employing different statistical and knowledge-based methodologies. External validation was performed to demonstrate the real-life predictability of models. Integrated modeling was then applied to improve performance of single models. Statistical results confirmed the relevance of developed models in regulatory frameworks, and confirmed the effectiveness of integrated modeling. The best integrated strategies reached RMSEs lower than 0.50 and the best classification models reached balanced accuracies over 0.70 for multi-class and over 0.80 for binary endpoints. Computed predictions will be hosted on the EPA's Chemistry Dashboard and made freely available to the scientific community.

Exploring current read-across applications and needs among selected U.S. Federal Agencies

Read-across is a well-established data gap-filling technique applied for regulatory purposes. In US Environmental Protection Agency's New Chemicals Program under TSCA, read-across has been used extensively for decades, however the extent of application and acceptance of read-across among U.S. federal agencies is less clear. In an effort to build read-across capacity, raise awareness of the state of the science, and work towards a harmonization of read-across approaches across U.S. agencies, a new read-across workgroup was established under the Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM). This is one of several ad hoc groups ICCVAM has convened to implement the ICCVAM Strategic Roadmap. In this article, we outline the charge and scope of the workgroup and summarize the current applications, tools used, and needs of the agencies represented on the workgroup for read-across. Of the agencies surveyed, the Environmental Protection Agency had the greatest experience in using read-across whereas other agencies indicated that they would benefit from gaining a perspective of the landscape of the tools and available guidance. Two practical case studies are also described to illustrate how the read-across approaches applied by two agencies vary on account of decision context.

Methodology of aiQSAR: a group-specific approach to QSAR modelling

Background

Several QSAR methodology developments have shown promise in recent years. These include the consensus approach to generate the final prediction of a model, utilizing new, advanced machine learning algorithms and streamlining, standardization and automation of various QSAR steps. One approach that seems under-explored is at-the-runtime generation of local models specific to individual compounds. This approach was quite likely limited by the computational requirements, but with current increases in processing power and the widespread availability of cluster-computing infrastructure, this limitation is no longer that severe.

Results

We propose a new QSAR methodology: aiQSAR, whose aim is to generate endpoint predictions directly from the input dataset by building an array of local models generated at-the-runtime and specific for each compound in the dataset. The local group of each compound is selected on the basis of fingerprint similarities and the final prediction is calculated by integrating the results of a number of autonomous mathematical models. The method is applicable to regression, binary classification and multi-class classification and was tested on one dataset for each endpoint type: bioconcentration factor (BCF) for regression, Ames test for binary classification and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) acute rat oral toxicity ranking for multi-class classification. As part of this method, the applicability domain of each prediction is assessed through the applicability domain measure, calculated on the basis of the fingerprint similarities in each local group of compounds.

Conclusions

We outline the methodology for a new QSAR-based predictive tool whose advantages are automation, group-specific approach to modelling and simplicity of execution. Our aim now will be to develop this method into a stand-alone software tool. We hope that eventual adoption of our tool would make QSAR modelling more accessible and transparent. Our methodology could be used as an initial modelling step, to predict new compounds by simply loading the training dataset as an input. Predictions could then be further evaluated and refined either by other tools or through optimization of aiQSAR parameters.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13321-019-0350-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Advancing Computational Toxicology in the Big Data Era by Artificial Intelligence: Data-Driven and Mechanism-Driven Modeling for Chemical Toxicity

In 2016, the Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act became the first US legislation to advance chemical safety evaluations by utilizing novel testing approaches that reduce the testing of vertebrate animals. Central to this mission is the advancement of computational toxicology and artificial intelligence approaches to implementing innovative testing methods. In the current big data era, the terms volume (amount of data), velocity (growth of data), and variety (the diversity of sources) have been used to characterize the currently available chemical, in vitro, and in vivo data for toxicity modeling purposes. Furthermore, as suggested by various scientists, the variability (internal consistency or lack thereof) of publicly available data pools, such as PubChem, also presents significant computational challenges. The development of novel artificial intelligence approaches based on public massive toxicity data is urgently needed to generate new predictive models for chemical toxicity evaluations and make the developed models applicable as alternatives for evaluating untested compounds. In this procedure, traditional approaches (e.g., QSAR) purely based on chemical structures have been replaced by newly designed data-driven and mechanism-driven modeling. The resulting models realize the concept of adverse outcome pathway (AOP), which can not only directly evaluate toxicity potentials of new compounds, but also illustrate relevant toxicity mechanisms. The recent advancement of computational toxicology in the big data era has paved the road to future toxicity testing, which will significantly impact on the public health.

High-throughput screening and environmental risk assessment: State of the science and emerging applications

In 2007 the United States National Research Council (NRC) published a vision for toxicity testing in the 21st century that emphasized the use of in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) methods and predictive models as an alternative to in vivo animal testing. In the present study we examine the state of the science of HTS and the progress that has been made in implementing and expanding on the NRC vision, as well as challenges to implementation that remain. Overall, significant progress has been made with regard to the availability of HTS data, aggregation of chemical property and toxicity information into online databases, and the development of various models and frameworks to support extrapolation of HTS data. However, HTS data and associated predictive models have not yet been widely applied in risk assessment. Major barriers include the disconnect between the endpoints measured in HTS assays and the assessment endpoints considered in risk assessments as well as the rapid pace at which new tools and models are evolving in contrast with the slow pace at which regulatory structures change. Nonetheless, there are opportunities for environmental scientists and policymakers alike to take an impactful role in the ongoing development and implementation of the NRC vision. Six specific areas for scientific coordination and/or policy engagement are identified. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:12-26. Published 2018 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

Integrated QSAR Models to Predict Acute Oral Systemic Toxicity

The ICCVAM Acute Toxicity Workgroup (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services), in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA, National Center for Computational Toxicology), coordinated the "Predictive Models for Acute Oral Systemic Toxicity" collaborative project to develop in silico models to predict acute oral systemic toxicity for filling regulatory needs. In this framework, new Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models for the prediction of very toxic (LD₅₀ lower than 50 mg/kg) and nontoxic (LD₅₀ greater than or equal to 2,000 mg/kg) endpoints were developed, as described in this study. Models were developed on a large set of chemicals (8992), provided by the project coordinators, considering the five OCED principles for QSAR applicability to regulatory endpoints. A Bayesian consensus approach integrating three different classification QSAR algorithms was applied as modelling method. For both the considered endpoints, the proposed approach demonstrated to be robust and predictive, as determined by a blind validation on a set of external molecules provided in a later stage by the coordinators of the collaborative project. Finally, the integration of predictions obtained for the very toxic and nontoxic endpoints allowed the identification of compounds associated to medium toxicity, as well as the analysis of consistency between the predictions obtained for the two endpoints on the same molecules. Predictions of the proposed consensus approach will be integrated with those originated from models proposed by the participants of the collaborative project to facilitate the regulatory acceptance of in-silico predictions and thus reduce or replace experimental tests for acute toxicity.