Climate Change Drives Poleward Increases and Equatorward Declines in Marine Species

Suitable habitat shifts and ecological niche overlay assessments among benthic Oplegnathus species in response to climate change

Climate change has had a significant impact on many marine organisms. To investigate the effects of environmental changes on deep-water benthic fishes, we selected the genus Oplegnathus and applied species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling. From the last glacial maximum to the present, the three Oplegnathus species (O. conwayi, O. robinsoni, and O. peaolopesi) distributed in the Cape of Good Hope region of southern Africa experienced fitness zone fluctuations of 39.9%, 13%, and 5.7%, respectively. In contrast, O. fasciatus and O. punctatus, which were primarily distributed in the western Pacific Ocean, had fitness zone fluctuations of -6.5% and 11.7%, respectively. Neither the O. insignis nor the O. woodward varied by more than 5% over the period. Under future environmental conditions, the range of variation in fitness zones for the three southern African Oplegnathus species was expected to be between -30.8% and -26.5%, while the range of variation in fitness zones for the two western Pacific stonefish species was expected to remain below 13%. In addition, the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. insignis was projected to be between -2.3% and 7.1%, and the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. woodward is projected to be between -5.7% and -2%. The results indicated that O. fasciatus and O. punctatus had a wide distribution and high expansion potential, while Oplegnathus species might have originated in western Pacific waters. Our results showed that benthic fishes were highly adaptable to extreme environments, such as the last glacial maximum. The high ecological niche overlap between Oplegnathus species in the same region suggested that they competed with each other. Future research could explore the impacts of environmental change on marine organisms and make conservation and management recommendations.

Influence of incubation temperature, maternal effects, and paternity on quality of olive ridley hatchlings (Lepidochelys olivacea) from a mass-nesting beach in the Mexican Pacific

Future climate change scenarios project that the increase in surface temperatures will affect ocean temperatures, inducing shifts in marine biodiversity. Sea turtles are species that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change because temperature is a factor that influences embryonic development. We collected clutches of olive ridley turtles from a mass-nesting beach in the Mexican Pacific, which were incubated in ex situ conditions. When the hatchlings emerged, we measured the body condition index-which evaluates the weight-length relationship-and swim thrust, both were considered traits associated with fitness, termed "fitness proxies," and evaluated the effects of incubation temperature, maternal effects, and paternity on these fitness proxies. The body condition index was correlated positively and significantly with the arribada month and temperature during the last third of the incubation period but showed an inverse relationship with the maternal effect. While swim thrust was positively correlated with the maternal effect and the arribada month, there was an inverse relationship with incubation temperature during the first third of the period. Paternity, whether single or multiple, did not have a significant effect on either fitness proxies; however, it may have effects on the average fitness of a population of hatchlings. These results underscore the need to expand research on the sublethal effects of high incubation temperatures on the adaptation and survival of sea turtles, particularly in scenarios of rapid climate change.

Kelp holdfast microclimates buffer invertebrate inhabitants from extreme temperatures

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species harbour diverse invertebrate communities in their holdfasts. We hypothesised that animal-excavated Durvillaea holdfasts provide a thermal refuge for epibiont species, and tested this hypothesis using the exemplar species D. poha. Using a southern Aotearoa New Zealand population as a case-study, we found extreme temperatures outside the holdfast were 4.4 °C higher in summer and 6.9 °C lower in winter than inside the holdfast. A microclimate model of the holdfasts was built and used to forecast microclimates under 2100 conditions. Temperatures are predicted to increase by 2-3 °C, which may exceed the tolerances of D. poha. However, if D. poha or a similar congeneric persists, temperatures inside holdfasts will remain less extreme than the external environment. The thermal tolerances of two Durvillaea-associated invertebrates, the trochid gastropod Cantharidus antipodum and the amphipod Parawaldeckia kidderi, were also assessed; C. antipodum, but not P. kidderi, displayed metabolic depression at temperatures above and below those inside holdfasts, suggesting that they would be vulnerable outside the holdfast and with future warming. Microclimates, such as those within D. poha holdfasts or holdfasts of similar species, will therefore be important refuges for the survival of species both at the northern (retreating edge) and southern (expanding edge) limits of their distributions.

Does climate change increase the risk of marine toxins? Insights from changing seawater conditions

Marine toxins produced by marine organisms threaten human health and impose a heavy public health burden on coastal countries. Lately, there has been an emergence of marine toxins in regions that were previously unaffected, and it is believed that climate change may be a significant factor. This paper systematically summarizes the impact of climate change on the risk of marine toxins in terms of changes in seawater conditions. From our findings, climate change can cause ocean warming, acidification, stratification, and sea-level rise. These climatic events can alter the surface temperature, salinity, pH, and nutrient conditions of seawater, which may promote the growth of various algae and bacteria, facilitating the production of marine toxins. On the other hand, climate change may expand the living ranges of marine organisms (such as algae, bacteria, and fish), thereby exacerbating the production and spread of marine toxins. In addition, the sources, distribution, and toxicity of ciguatoxin, tetrodotoxin, cyclic imines, and microcystin were described to improve public awareness of these emerging marine toxins. Looking ahead, developing interdisciplinary cooperation, strengthening monitoring of emerging marine toxins, and exploring more novel approaches are essential to better address the risks of marine toxins posed by climate change. Altogether, the interrelationships between climate, marine ecology, and marine toxins were analyzed in this study, providing a theoretical basis for preventing and managing future health risks from marine toxins.

We need collaboration and co-creation to address challenges facing coastal communities

Coastal communities across the globe are faced with multifaceted, interconnected challenges with competing environmental, social and economic needs. In rural coastal communities of the Global South, the challenges presented by climate change are complicated by those related to development, resource management and sustainable livelihoods. The rapid growth of such coastal communities exacerbates these challenges and reinforces the need for effective and sustainable governance. Such governance requires a move from top-down approaches to human-centred approaches. Human-centred coastal governance engages multiple stakeholders and combines multidisciplinary knowledge, participatory approaches, co-creation of solutions and multi-institutional partnerships. Here we present case studies from coastal communities in Vanuatu, Ghana and Bangladesh. These illustrate several of the complex challenges facing such communities and the collaborative and empowering strategies that have been used to meet them. Based on these case studies, we present a transdisciplinary framework to inform the co-creation of coastal management strategies that meet interconnected human and environmental needs.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas

Ocean warming and acidification, decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations, and changes in primary production are causing an unprecedented global redistribution of marine life. The identification of underlying ecological processes underpinning marine species turnover, particularly the prevalence of increases of warm-water species or declines of cold-water species, has been recently debated in the context of ocean warming. Here, we track changes in the mean thermal affinity of marine communities across European seas by calculating the Community Temperature Index for 65 biodiversity time series collected over four decades and containing 1,817 species from different communities (zooplankton, coastal benthos, pelagic and demersal invertebrates and fish). We show that most communities and sites have clearly responded to ongoing ocean warming via abundance increases of warm-water species (tropicalization, 54%) and decreases of cold-water species (deborealization, 18%). Tropicalization dominated Atlantic sites compared to semi-enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, probably due to physical barrier constraints to connectivity and species colonization. Semi-enclosed basins appeared to be particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, experiencing the fastest rates of warming and biodiversity loss through deborealization.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Warming and salinization effects on the deep-water rose shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris, distribution along the NW Mediterranean Sea: Implications for bottom trawl fisheries

The deep-water rose shrimp is a main resource for the GSA 6 bottom trawling fleet. In the last decade, landings have increased without a clear understanding of the causes. This study aims to analyze this trend, potentially related to changes in environmental conditions. Results showed an increase in the species' landings, which spread northwards along the GSA 6. GAM models detected a significant effect of location, time, and depth on the distribution of the deep-water rose shrimp, as did for temperature and salinity. Similar values between landings and LPUE were found throughout, suggesting no effects of fishing effort in time. ANOVA tests showed a significant increase of sea bottom temperature and salinity in time, which were correlated with increasing LPUE values. Then, the trend seems to be related to environmental changes rather than changes in fishing effort. Further research is needed to implement management plans that ensure the resource sustainability.

Climate-Change Impacts on Cephalopods: A Meta-Analysis

Aside from being one of the most fascinating groups of marine organisms, cephalopods play a major role in marine food webs, both as predators and as prey, while representing key living economic assets, namely for artisanal and subsistence fisheries worldwide. Recent research suggests that cephalopods are benefitting from ongoing environmental changes and the overfishing of certain fish stocks (i.e., of their predators and/or competitors), putting forward the hypothesis that this group may be one of the few "winners" of climate change. While many meta-analyses have demonstrated negative and overwhelming consequences of ocean warming (OW), acidification (OA), and their combination for a variety of marine taxa, such a comprehensive analysis is lacking for cephalopod molluscs. In this context, the existing literature was surveyed for peer-reviewed articles featuring the sustained (≥24 h) and controlled exposure of cephalopod species (Cephalopoda class) to these factors, applying a comparative framework of mixed-model meta-analyses (784 control-treatment comparisons, from 47 suitable articles). Impacts on a wide set of biological categories at the individual level (e.g., survival, metabolism, behavior, cell stress, growth) were evaluated and contrasted across different ecological attributes (i.e., taxonomic lineages, climates, and ontogenetic stages). Contrary to what is commonly assumed, OW arises as a clear threat to cephalopods, while OA exhibited more restricted impacts. In fact, OW impacts were ubiquitous across different stages of ontogeny, taxonomical lineages (i.e., octopuses, squids, and cuttlefish). These results challenge the assumption that cephalopods benefit from novel ocean conditions, revealing an overarching negative impact of OW in this group. Importantly, we also identify lingering literature gaps, showing that most studies to date focus on OW and early life stages of mainly temperate species. Our results raise the need to consolidate experimental efforts in a wider variety of taxa, climate regions, life stages, and other key environmental stressors, such as deoxygenation and hypoxia, to better understand how cephalopods will cope with future climate change.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Geographic variation in the life history of lane snapper Lutjanus synagris, with new insights from the warm edge of its distribution

Research on life-history variations in widely distributed fish species is needed to understand global warming impacts on populations and to improve fisheries management advice. The lane snapper Lutjanus synagris (Linnaeus, 1758) is commercially important to fisheries in the Western Central Atlantic, where spread information on its life-history traits is available. We studied growth, age, reproduction and mortality of lane snapper in the Guatemalan Caribbean, the warmest part of its distribution range, and collated the new information with published data in a latitudinal analysis extending between 18°S and 30°N. Longevity was estimated at 11 years, and von Bertalanffy growth parameters were asymptotic length (Linf) 45.6 and 42.2 cm for females and males, respectively, the growth coefficient (K) was 0.1 year-1 and the theoretical age at zero length (t0 ) was -4.4 years. Lane snapper grew slowest in April, prior to the rainy season, and at the onset of the reproductive season, which lasted from May to October. Fifty percent of female and male lane snappers matured at 23 and 17 cm, corresponding to 3.5 and 2.4 years of age respectively. A regional multivariate analysis found seawater temperature to be an important driver of life-history variation. Lane snapper lifespan was shorter at the warm edge of its distribution range, and maximum size and peak reproductive investment were negatively related to sea surface temperature. The trade-offs in lane snapper life-history traits and phenology likely enhance its fitness to differing environments. Interpolation from the present regional estimates to less-studied regions of the Caribbean is useful for preliminary understanding of reaction norms and harvest potentials.

Complex interactions of ENSO and local conditions buffer the poleward shift of migratory fish in a subtropical seascape

Ocean warming is associated with the tropicalization of fish towards higher latitudes. However, the influence of global climatic phenomena like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases on tropicalization has been overlooked. Understanding the combined effects of global climatic forces together with local variability on the distribution and abundance of tropical fish is essential for building more accurate predictive models of species on the move. This is particularly important in regions where ENSO-related impacts are known to be major drivers of ecosystem change, and is compounded by predictions that El Niño is becoming more frequent and intense under current ocean warming. In this study, we used long-term time series of monthly standardized sampling (August 1996 to February 2020) to investigate how ocean warming, ENSO and local environmental variability influence the abundance of an estuarine dependent tropical fish species (white mullet Mugil curema) at subtropical latitudes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Our work revealed a significant increasing trend in surface water temperature in shallow waters (<1.5 m) at estuarine and marine sites. However, against our initial expectation, we did not observe an increasing trend in the abundance of this tropical mullet species. Generalized Additive Models revealed complex, non-linear relationships between species abundance and environmental factors operating at large (ENSO's warm and cold phases), regional (freshwater discharge in the coastal lagoon's drainage basin) and local (temperature and salinity) scales across the estuarine marine gradient. These results demonstrate that fish responses to global climate change can be complex and multifaceted. More specifically, our findings suggested that the interaction among global and local driving forces dampen the expected effect of tropicalization for this mullet species in a subtropical seascape.

Estimating the Spatial Distribution and Future Conservation Requirements of the Spotted Seal in the North Pacific

Local adaptation has been increasingly involved in the designation of species conservation strategies to response to climate change. Marine mammals, as apex predators, are climatechange sensitive, and their spatial distribution and conservation requirements are critically significant for designing protection strategies. In this study, we focused on an ice-breeding marine mammal, the spotted seal (Phoca largha), which exhibits distinct morphological and genetic variations across its range. Our objectives were to quantify the ecological niches of three spotted seal populations, construct the species-level model and population-level models that represent different regions in the Bering population (BDPS), Okhotsk population (ODPS) and southern population (SDPS), and conduct a conservation gap analysis. Our findings unequivocally demonstrated a clear niche divergence among the three populations. We predicted habitat contraction for the BDPS and ODPS driven by climate change; in particular, the spotted seals inhabiting Liaodong Bay may face breeding habitat loss. However, most spotted seal habitats are not represented in existing marine protected areas. Drawing upon these outcomes, we propose appropriate conservation policies to effectively protect the habitat of the different geographical populations of spotted seals. Our research addresses the importance of incorporating local adaptation into species distribution modeling to inform conservation and management strategies.

Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of echinoderms in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

To detect potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of common echinoderm species in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS), species distribution models (SDMs) were applied. Ensemble SDMs were constructed and were in good model performance for six of the eight selected common echinoderm species. Under future climate scenarios, the brittle stars Ophiopholis mirabilis, Amphioplus depressus and the sea cucumber Protankyra bidentata were projected to expand in the southwestern areas of the YS, the ECS, and the coastal areas of the YS and ECS, respectively; the brittle stars Stegophiura sladeni, Amphiura digitula and Amphiura vadicola will likely contract their ranges in the south distribution areas and expand in the north, showing a northward movement trend. Temperature was the most important environmental variable influencing the distribution of the latter three echinoderms. Our findings will improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on marine species distributions.

Marine heatwaves are not a dominant driver of change in demersal fishes

Marine heatwaves have been linked to negative ecological effects in recent decades1,2. If marine heatwaves regularly induce community reorganization and biomass collapses in fishes, the consequences could be catastrophic for ecosystems, fisheries and human communities3,4. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves have negative impacts on fish biomass or community composition, or even whether their effects can be distinguished from natural and sampling variability, remains unclear. We investigated the effects of 248 sea-bottom heatwaves from 1993 to 2019 on marine fishes by analysing 82,322 hauls (samples) from long-term scientific surveys of continental shelf ecosystems in North America and Europe spanning the subtropics to the Arctic. Here we show that the effects of marine heatwaves on fish biomass were often minimal and could not be distinguished from natural and sampling variability. Furthermore, marine heatwaves were not consistently associated with tropicalization (gain of warm-affiliated species) or deborealization (loss of cold-affiliated species) in these ecosystems. Although steep declines in biomass occasionally occurred after marine heatwaves, these were the exception, not the rule. Against the highly variable backdrop of ocean ecosystems, marine heatwaves have not driven biomass change or community turnover in fish communities that support many of the world's largest and most productive fisheries.

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

The FORCIS database: A global census of planktonic Foraminifera from ocean waters

Planktonic Foraminifera are unique paleo-environmental indicators through their excellent fossil record in ocean sediments. Their distribution and diversity are affected by different environmental factors including anthropogenically forced ocean and climate change. Until now, historical changes in their distribution have not been fully assessed at the global scale. Here we present the FORCIS (Foraminifera Response to Climatic Stress) database on foraminiferal species diversity and distribution in the global ocean from 1910 until 2018 including published and unpublished data. The FORCIS database includes data collected using plankton tows, continuous plankton recorder, sediment traps and plankton pump, and contains ~22,000, ~157,000, ~9,000, ~400 subsamples, respectively (one single plankton aliquot collected within a depth range, time interval, size fraction range, at a single location) from each category. Our database provides a perspective of the distribution patterns of planktonic Foraminifera in the global ocean on large spatial (regional to basin scale, and at the vertical scale), and temporal (seasonal to interdecadal) scales over the past century.

Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas

Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large-scale spatial variation across present-day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community-level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate-driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.

Positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has driven poleward redistribution of the West Antarctic Peninsula biota through a food-chain mechanism

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has recorded a significant poleward range shift in marine biota, including Adélie penguins, Antarctic krill and phytoplankton. The ecological changes have been widely attributed to Pacific/Southern Hemisphere variabilities. However, the teleconnection from the North Atlantic Ocean, which also could induce changes in the WAP physical environments, has been overlooked. Here we combine state-of-the-art observational/modelling databases to quantify the poleward redistribution since the 1980s of three key members of the WAP biota and explored their response to several climatic oscillations. The abundance of Adélie penguins, Antarctic krill and phytoplankton in the WAP all show a decrease in the north and an increase in the south, leading to a poleward shift of their distribution centers by ~0.8-2.3°. A more positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has contributed to the poleward redistribution of phytoplankton/krill/penguin with a time lag of 0/1/5 yr, indicating a food-chain related mechanism. +AMO in spring resulted in reduced sea ice, earlier ice retreat and enhanced winds in the northern WAP, which constrained phytoplankton blooms and krill reproduction, thereby decreasing the krill recruitment 1 yr later and consequently the penguin recruitment 5 yr later. In the southern WAP, where the sea ice cover was nearly permanent in the 1980s, reduced sea ice and earlier ice retreat promoted phytoplankton growth and krill/penguin reproduction. Our results emphasize the global nature of climate-ecological coupling; the influence of the Northern Hemisphere climate system on Antarctic/Southern Ocean biota is a non-negligible factor for the ecosystem management.

Circadian rhythm of preferred temperature in fish: Behavioural thermoregulation linked to daily photocycles in zebrafish and Nile tilapia

Ectothermic vertebrates, e.g. fish, maintain their body temperature within a specific physiological range mainly through behavioural thermoregulation. Here, we characterise the presence of daily rhythms of thermal preference in two phylogenetically distant and well-studied fish species: the zebrafish (Danio rerio), an experimental model, and the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), an aquaculture species. We created a non-continuous temperature gradient using multichambered tanks according to the natural environmental range for each species. Each species was allowed to freely choose their preferred temperature during the 24h cycle over a long-term period. Both species displayed strikingly consistent temporal daily rhythms of thermal preference with higher temperatures being selected during the second half of the light phase and lower temperatures at the end of the dark phase, with mean acrophases at Zeitgeber Time (ZT) 5.37 h (zebrafish) and ZT 12.5 h (tilapia). Interestingly, when moved to the experimental tank, only tilapia displayed consistent preference for higher temperatures and took longer time to establish the thermal rhythms. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating both light-driven daily rhythm and thermal choice to refine our understanding of fish biology and improve the management and welfare of the diversity of fish species used in research and food production.

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.

Experimental temperatures shape host microbiome diversity and composition

Global climate change has led to more extreme thermal events. Plants and animals harbour diverse microbial communities, which may be vital for their physiological performance and help them survive stressful climatic conditions. The extent to which microbiome communities change in response to warming or cooling may be important for predicting host performance under global change. Using a meta-analysis of 1377 microbiomes from 43 terrestrial and aquatic species, we found a decrease in the amplicon sequence variant-level microbiome phylogenetic diversity and alteration of microbiome composition under both experimental warming and cooling. Microbiome beta dispersion was not affected by temperature changes. We showed that the host habitat and experimental factors affected microbiome diversity and composition more than host biological traits. In particular, aquatic organisms-especially in marine habitats-experienced a greater depletion in microbiome diversity under cold conditions, compared to terrestrial hosts. Exposure involving a sudden long and static temperature shift was associated with microbiome diversity loss, but this reduction was attenuated by prior-experimental lab acclimation or when a ramped regime (i.e., warming) was used. Microbial differential abundance and co-occurrence network analyses revealed several potential indicator bacterial classes for hosts in heated environments and on different biome levels. Overall, our findings improve our understanding on the impact of global temperature changes on animal and plant microbiome structures across a diverse range of habitats. The next step is to link these changes to measures of host fitness, as well as microbial community functions, to determine whether microbiomes can buffer some species against a more thermally variable and extreme world.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography of Three Amnesic Shellfish Toxin Producing Diatom Species

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are considered one of the main risks for marine ecosystems and human health worldwide. Climate change is projected to induce significant changes in species geographic distribution, and, in this sense, it is paramount to accurately predict how it will affect toxin-producing microalgae. In this context, the present study was intended to project the potential biogeographical changes in habitat suitability and occurrence distribution of three key amnesic shellfish toxin (AST)-producing diatom species (i.e., Pseudo-nitzschia australis, P. seriata, and P. fraudulenta) under four different climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) up to 2050 and 2100. For this purpose, we applied species distribution models (SDMs) using four abiotic predictors (i.e., sea surface temperature, salinity, current velocity, and bathymetry) in a MaxEnt framework. Overall, considerable contraction and potential extirpation were projected for all species at lower latitudes together with projected poleward expansions into higher latitudes, mainly in the northern hemisphere. The present study aims to contribute to the knowledge on the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of toxin-producing microalgae species while at the same time advising the correct environmental management of coastal habitats and ecosystems.

A regionally coherent ecological fingerprint of climate change, evidenced from natural history collections

Climate change has dramatic impacts on ecological systems, affecting a range of ecological factors including phenology, species abundance, diversity, and distribution. The breadth of climate change impacts on ecological systems leads to the occurrence of fingerprints of climate change. However, climate fingerprints are usually identified across broad geographical scales and are potentially influenced by publication biases. In this study, we used natural history collections spanning over 250 years, to quantify a range of ecological responses to climate change, including phenology, abundance, diversity, and distributions, across a range of taxa, including vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and fungi, within a single region, Central Norway. We tested the hypotheses that ecological responses to climate change are apparent and coherent at a regional scale, that longer time series show stronger trends over time and in relation to temperature, and that ecological responses change in trajectory at the same time as shifts in temperature. We identified a clear regional coherence in climate signal, with decreasing abundances of limnic zooplankton (on average by 7691 individuals m-3 °C-1) and boreal forest breeding birds (on average by 1.94 territories km-2 °C-1), and earlier plant flowering phenology (on average 2 days °C-1) for every degree of temperature increase. In contrast, regional-scale species distributions and species diversity were largely stable. Surprisingly, the effect size of ecological response did not increase with study duration, and shifts in responses did not occur at the same time as shifts in temperature. This may be as the long-term studies include both periods of warming and temperature stability, and that ecological responses lag behind warming. Our findings demonstrate a regional climate fingerprint across a long timescale. We contend that natural history collections provide a unique window on a broad spectrum of ecological responses at timescales beyond most ecological monitoring programs. Natural history collections are thus an essential source for long-term ecological research.

Network analysis reveals aggregation behaviour for an endangered predator at an offshore island

Site fidelity and aggregation behaviour were assessed for giant sea bass Stereolepis gigas (GSB) at Santa Barbara Island, California, USA, from 2018 to 2020. Results indicate seasonal variation in GSB presence, and network analyses revealed a preferred location in a spatially constrained pattern, indicative of aggregation behaviour. Results show GSB aggregated annually during spawning months in the same location, confirming the first known aggregation of GSB at Santa Barbara Island. Identifying and monitoring aggregation sites is vital to ensuring proper protection and ultimate recovery for this protected species in a changing climate.

Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem

The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high-resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO₂ ) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism-scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy-forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness-related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century.

Influence of the Atlantic Ocean thermal anomaly on the Longsnout seahorse Hippocampus reidi in a Brazilian estuary

One of the consequences of climate change is an increase in the temperature of the oceans, which is considered to be one of the greatest impacts on biodiversity. Fish may respond to this impact in several ways, including shifts in their patterns of occurrence. The present study investigated the variation in the structure of a H. reidi population between 2015 and 2017 in the northern Guaíba Island area, highlighting a possible relationship to thermal anomaly associated with the El Niño phenomenon. The seahorse population monitoring was performed monthly, recording sex ratio, abundance, juvenile and adult proportion, depth of occurrence, total length and the holdfast which the seahorse were found attached. The influence of the El Niño event on the study population was evaluated by the correlation of the thermal anomaly data reported for the Tropical South Atlantic Index. Seahorse density on northern Guaíba island was positively and significantly correlated with water temperature, but the sex ratio and number of juveniles were not. The diversity of holdfasts used increased over the study period and was inversely proportional to the thermal anomaly. These results suggest that the thermal anomalies caused by the El Niño in the South Atlantic might trigger migration behaviour in the study species, providing a large aggregation during that period in Guaíba island.

Structure-Function Relationships of Oxygen Transport Proteins in Marine Invertebrates Enduring Higher Temperatures and Deoxygenation

AbstractPredictions for climate change-to lesser and greater extents-reveal a common scenario in which marine waters are characterized by a deadly trio of stressors: higher temperatures, lower oxygen levels, and acidification. Ectothermic taxa that inhabit coastal waters, such as shellfish, are vulnerable to rapid and prolonged environmental disturbances, such as heatwaves, pollution-induced eutrophication, and dysoxia. Oxygen transport capacity of the hemolymph (blood equivalent) is considered the proximal driver of thermotolerance and respiration in many invertebrates. Moreover, maintaining homeostasis under environmental duress is inextricably linked to the activities of the hemolymph-based oxygen transport or binding proteins. Several protein groups fulfill this role in marine invertebrates: copper-based extracellular hemocyanins, iron-based intracellular hemoglobins and hemerythrins, and giant extracellular hemoglobins. In this brief text, we revisit the distribution and multifunctional properties of oxygen transport proteins, notably hemocyanins, in the context of climate change, and the consequent physiological reprogramming of marine invertebrates.

Southern Hemisphere coasts are biologically connected by frequent, long-distance rafting events

Globally, species distributions are shifting in response to environmental change,1 and those that cannot disperse risk extinction.2 Many taxa, including marine species, are showing poleward range shifts as the climate warms.3 In the Southern Hemisphere, however, circumpolar oceanic fronts can present barriers to dispersal.4 Although passive, southward movement of species across this barrier has been considered unlikely,5,6 the recent discovery of buoyant kelp rafts on beaches in Antarctica7,8 demonstrates that such journeys are possible. Rafting is a key process by which diverse taxa-including terrestrial, e.g., Lindo,9 Godinot,10 and Censky et al.,11 and marine, e.g., Carlton et al.12 and Gillespie et al.13 species-can cross oceans.14 Kelp rafts can carry passengers7,15-17 and thus can act as vectors for long-distance dispersal of coastal organisms. The small numbers of kelp rafts previously found in Antarctica7,8 do not, however, shed much light on the frequency of such dispersal events.18 We use a combination of high-resolution phylogenomic analyses (>220,000 SNPs) and oceanographic modeling to show that long-distance biological dispersal events in Southern Ocean are not rare. We document tens of kelp (Durvillaea antarctica) rafting events of thousands of kilometers each, over several decades (1950-2019), with many kelp rafts apparently still reproductively viable. Modeling of dispersal trajectories from genomically inferred source locations shows that distant landmasses are well connected, for example South Georgia and New Zealand, and the Kerguelen Islands and Tasmania. Our findings illustrate the power of genomic approaches to track, and modeling to show frequencies of, long-distance dispersal events.

Ancient DNA reveals a southern presence of the Northeast Arctic cod during the Holocene

Climate change has been implicated in an increased number of distributional shifts of marine species during the last century. Nonetheless, it is unclear whether earlier climatic fluctuations had similar impacts. We use ancient DNA to investigate the long-term spawning distribution of the Northeast Arctic cod (skrei) which performs yearly migrations from the Barents Sea towards spawning grounds along the Norwegian coast. The distribution of these spawning grounds has shifted northwards during the last century, which is thought to be associated with food availability and warming temperatures. We genetically identify skrei specimens from Ruskeneset in west Norway, an archaeological site located south of their current spawning range. Remarkably, ¹⁴C analyses date these specimens to the late Holocene, when temperatures were warmer than present-day conditions. Our results either suggest that temperature is not the only driver influencing the spawning distribution of Atlantic cod, or could be indicative of uncertainty in palaeoclimate reconstructions in this region. Regardless, our findings highlight the utility of aDNA to reconstruct the historical distribution of economically important fish populations and reveal the complexity of long-term ecological interactions in the marine environment.

Introduction to the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments'

Understanding where, when and how species’ ranges will be modified is both a fundamental problem and essential to predicting how spatio-temporal environmental changes in abiotic and biotic factors impact biodiversity. Notably, different species may respond disparately to similar environmental changes: some species may overcome an environmental change only with difficulty or not at all, while other species may readily overcome the same change. Ranges may contract, expand or move. The drivers and consequences of this variability in species' responses remain puzzling. Importantly, changes in a species’ range creates feedbacks to the environmental conditions, populations and communities in its previous and current range, rendering population genetic, population dynamic and community processes inextricably linked. Understanding these links is critical in guiding biodiversity management and conservation efforts. This theme issue presents current thinking about the factors and mechanisms that limit and/or modify species' ranges. It also outlines different approaches to detect changes in species’ distributions, and illustrates cases of range modifications in several taxa. Overall, this theme issue highlights the urgency of understanding species' ranges but shows that we are only just beginning to disentangle the processes involved. One way forward is to unite ecology with evolutionary biology and empirical with modelling approaches.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

The role of phenotypic plasticity in the establishment of range margins

It has been argued that adaptive phenotypic plasticity may facilitate range expansions over spatially and temporally variable environments. However, plasticity may induce fitness costs. This may hinder the evolution of plasticity. Earlier modelling studies examined the role of plasticity during range expansions of populations with fixed genetic variance. However, genetic variance evolves in natural populations. This may critically alter model outcomes. We ask: how does the capacity for plasticity in populations with evolving genetic variance alter range margins that populations without the capacity for plasticity are expected to attain? We answered this question using computer simulations and analytical approximations. We found a critical plasticity cost above which the capacity for plasticity has no impact on the expected range of the population. Below the critical cost, by contrast, plasticity facilitates range expansion, extending the range in comparison to that expected for populations without plasticity. We further found that populations may evolve plasticity to buffer temporal environmental fluctuations, but only when the plasticity cost is below the critical cost. Thus, the cost of plasticity is a key factor involved in range expansions of populations with the potential to express plastic response in the adaptive trait. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Exploring the impact of climate change on the global distribution of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera using a trait-based ecosystem model

Planktonic foraminifera are one of the primary calcifiers in the modern ocean, contributing 23%-56% of total global pelagic carbonate production. However, a mechanistic understanding of how physiology and environmental conditions control their abundance and distribution is lacking, hindering the projection of the impact of future climate change. This understanding is important, not only for ecosystem dynamics, but also for marine carbon cycling because of foraminifera's key role in carbonate production. Here we present and apply a global trait-based ecosystem model of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera ('ForamEcoGEnIE') to assess their ecology and global distribution under future climate change. ForamEcoGEnIE considers the traits of calcium carbonate production, shell size, and foraging. It captures the main characteristic of biogeographical patterns of non-spinose species - with maximum biomass concentrations found in mid- to high-latitude waters and upwelling areas. The model also reproduces the magnitude of global carbonate production relatively well, although the foraminifera standing stock is systematically overestimated. In response to future scenarios of rising atmospheric CO₂ (RCP6 and RCP8.5), on a regional scale, the modelled foraminifera biomass and export flux increases in the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean while it decreases everywhere else. In the absence of adaptation, the biomass decline in the low-latitude South Pacific suggests extirpation. The model projects a global average loss in non-spinose foraminifera biomass between 8% (RCP6) and 11% (RCP8.5) by 2050 and between 14% and 18% by 2100 as a response to ocean warming and associated changes in primary production and ecological dynamics. Global calcium carbonate flux associated with non-spinose foraminifera declines by 13%-18% by 2100. That decline can slow down the ocean carbonate pump and create short-term positive feedback on rising atmospheric pCO₂ .

Intergrading reef communities across discrete seaweed habitats in a temperate-tropical transition zone: Lessons for species reshuffling in a warming ocean

Temperate reefs are increasingly affected by the direct and indirect effects of climate change. At many of their warm range edges, cool-water kelps are decreasing, while seaweeds with warm-water affinities are increasing. These habitat-forming species provide different ecological functions, and shifts to warm-affinity seaweeds are expected to modify the structure of associated communities. Predicting the nature of such shifts at the ecosystem level is, however, challenging, as they often occur gradually over large geographical areas. Here, we take advantage of a climatic transition zone, where cool-affinity (kelp) and warm-affinity (Sargassum) seaweed forests occur adjacently under similar environmental conditions, to test whether these seaweed habitats support different associated seaweed, invertebrate, coral, and fish assemblages. We found clear differences in associated seaweed assemblages between habitats characterized by kelp and Sargassum abundance, with kelp having higher biomass and seaweed diversity and more cool-affinity species than Sargassum habitats. The multivariate invertebrate and fish assemblages were not different between habitats, despite a higher diversity of fish species in the Sargassum habitat. No pattern in temperature affinity of the invertebrate or fish assemblages in each habitat was found, and few fish species were exclusive to one habitat or the other. These findings suggest that, as ocean warming continues to replace kelps with Sargassum, the abundance and diversity of associated seaweeds could decrease, whereas fish could increase. Nevertheless, the more tropicalized seaweed habitats may provide a degree of functional redundancy to associated fauna in temperate seaweed habitats.

Modelling the biogeographic boundary shift of Calanus finmarchicus reveals drivers of Arctic Atlantification by subarctic zooplankton

Biological communities in the Arctic are changing through the climate-driven encroachment of subarctic species. This "Atlantification" extends to keystone Calanoid copepods, as the small-bodied Calanus finmarchicus increases in abundance in areas where it overlaps with larger Arctic congeners. The environmental factors that are facilitating this shift, whether related to optimal conditions in temperature or seasonality, remain unclear. Assessing these drivers at an Arctic-wide scale is necessary to predict future ecosystem change and impacts. Here we have compiled range-wide occurrences of C. finmarchicus and a suite of seasonal biophysical climatologies to build a boreo-Arctic ecological niche model. The data set was divided into two eras, 1955-1984 and 1985-2017, and an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the seasonal distribution of the abiotic niche of C. finmarchicus in both eras. Comparing outputs between eras reveals an increase in habitat suitability at the Arctic range edge. Large and significant increases in suitability are predicted in the regions of the Greenland, Labrador, and Southern Barents Seas that have experienced reduced sea-ice cover. With the exception of the Barents Sea, these areas also show a seasonal shift in the timing of peak habitat suitability toward an earlier season. Our findings suggest that the Atlantification of Arctic zooplankton communities is accompanied by climate-driven phenology changes. Although seasonality is a critical constraint to the establishment of C. finmarchicus at Arctic latitudes, earlier sea-ice retreat and associated productivity is making these environments increasingly favorable for this subarctic species.

Chemometric study on the biochemical marker of the manglicolous fungi to illustrate its potentiality as a bio indicator for heavy metal pollution in Indian Sundarbans

The study represents in vitro chemometric approach for assessing the heavy metal pollution in Indian Sundarbans. Physio-chemical and elemental characterisation of the sediment samples of Indian Sundarbans had shown high enrichments of toxic metal ions. It was characterised by elevated enrichment factors (2.16-10.12), geo-accumulation indices (0.03 -1.21), contamination factors (0.7-3.43) and pollution load indices (1.0-1.25) which showed progressive sediment quality deterioration and ecotoxicological risk due to metal ions contamination. The physio-chemical parameters of the sediments were replicated and computational chemometric modeling was utilized to assess fungal metabolic growth. All the fungi isolates had shown maximum metabolic activity in high temperature, alkaline pH, and high salinity. Further, the fungal metabolic activity was assessed in different gradient of heavy metal concentration. The significant deterioration of biochemical marker with increasing concentration of heavy metal indicates the status of the microbial health due to toxic metal pollution in the mangrove habitat.

Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries

Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, one of the world's most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait-based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch-based vulnerability with a suite of socio-economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries' exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait-based approach on targeted marine species with socio-economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected.

Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale

Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species’ distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species’ conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species’ range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050–2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.

Genotype-Environment mismatch of kelp forests under climate change

Climate change is increasingly impacting ecosystems globally. Understanding adaptive genetic diversity and whether it will keep pace with projected climatic change is necessary to assess species' vulnerability and design efficient mitigation strategies such as assisted adaptation. Kelp forests are the foundations of temperate reefs globally but are declining in many regions due to climate stress. A lack of knowledge of kelp's adaptive genetic diversity hinders assessment of vulnerability under extant and future climates. Using 4245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we characterized patterns of neutral and putative adaptive genetic diversity for the dominant kelp in the southern hemisphere (Ecklonia radiata) from ~1000 km of coastline off Western Australia. Strong population structure and isolation-by-distance was underpinned by significant signatures of selection related to temperature and light. Gradient forest analysis of temperature-linked SNPs under selection revealed a strong association with mean annual temperature range, suggesting adaptation to local thermal environments. Critically, modelling revealed that predicted climate-mediated temperature changes will probably result in high genomic vulnerability via a mismatch between current and future predicted genotype-environment relationships such that kelp forests off Western Australia will need to significantly adapt to keep pace with projected climate change. Proactive management techniques such as assisted adaptation to boost resilience may be required to secure the future of these kelp forests and the immense ecological and economic values they support.

Predicted climate-induced reductions in scavenging in eastern North America

Scavenging is an important function within ecosystems where scavengers remove organic matter, reduce disease, stabilize food webs, and generally make ecosystems more resilient to environmental changes. Global change (i.e., changing climate and increasing human impact) is currently influencing scavenger communities. Thus, understanding what promotes species richness in scavenger communities can help prioritize management actions. Using a long-term dataset from camera traps deployed with animal carcasses as bait along a 1881 km latitudinal gradient in the Appalachian Mountains of eastern USA, we investigated the relative impact of climate and humans on the species richness and diversity of vertebrate scavengers. Our most supported models for both mammalian and avian scavengers included climatic, but not human, variables. The richness of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest during relatively warm (5-10°C) and dry (100-150 mm precipitation) winters, when food was likely limited and both reliance on and detection of carrion was high. The diversity of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest under drier conditions. We then used these results to project the future species richness of scavengers that would be detected within our sampling area and under the climate scenario of 2070 (emissions level RCP8.5). Our predictions suggest up to 80% and 67% reductions, respectively, in the richness of avian and mammalian scavengers that would be detected at baited sites. Climate-induced shifts in behavior (i.e., reduction in scavenging, even if present) at this scale could have cascading implications for ecosystem function, resilience, and human health. Further, our study highlights the importance of conducting studies of scavenger community dynamics within ecosystems across wide spatial gradients within temperate environments. More broadly, these findings build upon our understanding of the impacts of climate-induced adjustments in behavior that can likely have negative impacts on systems at a large scale.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding reveals and unpacks a biodiversity conservation paradox in Mediterranean marine reserves

Although we are currently experiencing worldwide biodiversity loss, local species richness does not always decline under anthropogenic pressure. This conservation paradox may also apply in protected areas but has not yet received conclusive evidence in marine ecosystems. Here, we survey fish assemblages in six Mediterranean no-take reserves and their adjacent fishing grounds using environmental DNA (eDNA) while controlling for environmental conditions. We detect less fish species in marine reserves than in nearby fished areas. The paradoxical gradient in species richness is accompanied by a marked change in fish species composition under different managements. This dissimilarity is mainly driven by species that are often overlooked by classical visual surveys but detected with eDNA: cryptobenthic, pelagic, and rare fishes. These results do not negate the importance of reserves in protecting biodiversity but shed new light on how under-represented species groups can positively react to fishing pressure and how conservation efforts can shape regional biodiversity patterns.

Ciguatera Mini Review: 21st Century Environmental Challenges and the Interdisciplinary Research Efforts Rising to Meet Them

Globally, the livelihoods of over a billion people are affected by changes to marine ecosystems, both structurally and systematically. Resources and ecosystem services, provided by the marine environment, contribute nutrition, income, and health benefits for communities. One threat to these securities is ciguatera poisoning; worldwide, the most commonly reported non-bacterial seafood-related illness. Ciguatera is caused by the consumption of (primarily) finfish contaminated with ciguatoxins, potent neurotoxins produced by benthic single-cell microalgae. When consumed, ciguatoxins are biotransformed and can bioaccumulate throughout the food-web via complex pathways. Ciguatera-derived food insecurity is particularly extreme for small island-nations, where fear of intoxication can lead to fishing restrictions by region, species, or size. Exacerbating these complexities are anthropogenic or natural changes occurring in global marine habitats, e.g., climate change, greenhouse-gas induced physical oceanic changes, overfishing, invasive species, and even the international seafood trade. Here we provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century regarding the many facets of ciguatera, including the complex nature of this illness, the biological/environmental factors affecting the causative organisms, their toxins, vectors, detection methods, human-health oriented responses, and ultimately an outlook towards the future. Ciguatera research efforts face many social and environmental challenges this century. However, several future-oriented goals are within reach, including digital solutions for seafood supply chains, identifying novel compounds and methods with the potential for advanced diagnostics, treatments, and prediction capabilities. The advances described herein provide confidence that the tools are now available to answer many of the remaining questions surrounding ciguatera and therefore protection measures can become more accurate and routine.

Restoring Pre-Industrial CO2 Levels While Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Unless humanity achieves United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and restores the relatively stable climate of pre-industrial CO2 levels (as early as 2140), species extinctions, starvation, drought/floods, and violence will exacerbate mass migrations. This paper presents conceptual designs and techno-economic analyses to calculate sustainable limits for growing high-protein seafood and macroalgae-for-biofuel. We review the availability of wet solid waste and outline the mass balance of carbon and plant nutrients passing through a hydrothermal liquefaction process. The paper reviews the availability of dry solid waste and dry biomass for bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) while generating Allam Cycle electricity. Sufficient wet-waste biomass supports quickly building hydrothermal liquefaction facilities. Macroalgae-for-biofuel technology can be developed and straightforwardly implemented on SDG-achieving high protein seafood infrastructure. The analyses indicate a potential for (1) 0.5 billion tonnes/yr of seafood; (2) 20 million barrels/day of biofuel from solid waste; (3) more biocrude oil from macroalgae than current fossil oil; and (4) sequestration of 28 to 38 billion tonnes/yr of bio-CO2. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) costs are between 25–33% of those for BECCS with pre-2019 technology or the projected cost of air-capture CDR.

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979-2019) and Bayesian state-space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (-4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: -7.8 to -0.6%) than the Namibian one (-0.3%, HPDI: -3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost -10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40-year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention.

Different drivers, common mechanism; the distribution of a reef fish is restricted by local-scale oxygen and temperature constraints on aerobic metabolism

The distributions of ectothermic marine organisms are limited to temperature ranges and oxygen conditions that support aerobic respiration, quantified within the metabolic index (ϕ) as the ratio of oxygen supply to metabolic oxygen demand. However, the utility of ϕ at local scales and across heterogenous environments is unknown; yet, these scales are often where actionable management decisions are made. Here, we test if ϕ can delimit the entire distribution of marine organisms when calibrated across an appropriate temperature range and at local scales (~10 km) using the endemic reef fish, Chrysoblephus laticeps, which is found in the highly heterogenous temperature and oxygen environment along the South African coastal zone, as a model species. In laboratory experiments, we find a bidirectional (at 12°C) hypoxia tolerance response across the temperature range tested (8 to 24°C), permitting a piecewise calibration of ϕ. We then project this calibrated ϕ model through temperature and oxygen data from a high spatial resolution (11 to 13 km) ocean model for the periods 2005 to 2009 and 2095 to 2099 to quantify various magnitudes of ϕ across space and time paired with complementary C. laticeps occurrence points. Using random forest species distribution models, we quantify a critical ϕ value of 2.78 below which C. laticeps cannot persist and predict current and future distributions of C. laticeps in line with already observed distribution shifts of other South African marine species. Overall, we find that C. laticeps' distribution is limited by increasing temperatures towards its warm edge but by low oxygen availability towards its cool edge, which is captured within ϕ at fine scales and across heterogenous oxygen and temperature combinations. Our results support the application of ϕ for generating local- and regional-scale predictions of climate change effects on organisms that can inform local conservation management decisions.