Clinical profile and predictors of mortality in patients of acute-on-chronic liver failure

Active alcohol consumption is associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure in Hispanic patients

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe clinical entity associated with elevated short-term mortality. We aimed to characterize patients with decompensated cirrhosis according to presence of ACLF, their association with active alcohol intake, and long-term survival in Latin America.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of decompensated cirrhotic in three Chilean university centers (2017-2019). ACLF was diagnosed according EASL-CLIF criteria. We assessed survival using competing-risk and time-to-event analyses. We evaluated the time to death using accelerated failure time (AFT) models.

RESULTS

We included 320 patients, median age of 65.3±11.7 years old, and 48.4% were women. 92 (28.7%) patients met ACLF criteria (ACLF-1: 29.3%, ACLF-2: 27.1%, and ACLF-3: 43.4%). The most common precipitants were infections (39.1%), and the leading organ failure was kidney (59.8%). Active alcohol consumption was frequent (27.7%), even in patients with a prior diagnosis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (16.2%). Ninety-two (28.7%) patients had ACLF (ACLF-1: 8.4%, ACLF-2: 7.8%, and ACLF-3: 12.5%). ACLF patients had a higher MELD-Na score at admission (27 [22-31] versus 16 [12-21], p<0.0001), a higher frequency of alcohol-associated liver disease (36.7% versus 24.9%, p=0.039), and a more frequent active alcohol intake (37.2% versus 23.8%, p=0.019). In a multivariate model, ACLF was associated with higher mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.735, 95%CI: 1.153-2.609; p<0.008). In the AFT models, the presence of ACLF during hospitalization correlated with a shorter time to death: ACLF-1 shortens the time to death by 4.7 times (time ratio [TR] 0.214, 95%CI: 0.075-0.615; p<0.004), ACLF-2 by 4.4 times (TR 0.224, 95%CI: 0.070-0.713; p<0.011), and ACLF-3 by 37 times (TR 0.027, 95%CI: 0.006-0.129; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ACLF exhibited a high frequency ofactive alcohol consumption. Patients with ACLF showed higher mortality and shorter time todeath than those without ACLF.

Definitions, Etiologies, and Outcomes of Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a major public health concern. We aimed to assess the definitions, etiologic spectrum, organ failure (OF), and outcomes of ACLF globally.

METHODS

Three databases were searched for studies on ACLF from 1990 until September 2022. Information regarding definitions, acute precipitants, underlying chronic liver disease (CLD), OF, and mortality were extracted. Meta-analyses were performed for pooled prevalence rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) using random-effects model for each definition of ACLF.

RESULTS

Of the 11,451 studies identified, 114 articles (142 cohorts encompassing 210,239 patients) met the eligibility criteria. Most studies (53.2%) used the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) definition, followed by Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) (33.3%). Systemic infection was the major acute precipitant, and alcohol use was the major cause of CLD in EASL-defined studies, whereas alcohol was both the major acute precipitant and cause of CLD in APASL-defined studies. Liver failure was the major OF in APASL-based studies, whereas renal failure was predominant in EASL-based studies. Thirty-day mortality varied across definitions: APASL: 38.9%, 95% CI, 31.2%-46.9%; EASL: 47.9%, 95% CI, 42.2%-53.5%; and NACSELD: 52.2%, 95% CI, 51.9%-52.5%. Diagnostic overlap between definitions ranged from 7.7% to 80.2%. Meta-regression suggested that the World Health Organization region influenced 30-day mortality in studies using EASL definition.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity in the definition of ACLF proposed by different expert societies and regional preferences in its use result in differences in clinical phenotype and outcomes. A uniform definition would enhance the comparability and interpretation of global data.

Development of novel prognostic models based on dynamic changes in risk factors for hepatitis B associated acute-on-chronic liver failure:a 10-year retrospective study

Background/Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with high short-term mortality, and early prediction is critical to reduce the deaths of ACLF patients. To date, however, the prognostic accuracy of current models for ACLF is unsatisfactory, particularly, in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aims to develop novel prognostic models based on the dynamic changes in variables to predict the short-term mortality of HBV-associated ACLF (HBV-ACLF).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, with the population comprised in whom ACLF was confirmed.319 patients were enrolled and their clinical data were collected on Days 1 and 7 following hospital admission. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for 28 and 90-day mortality. The dynamic alterations in the risk factors were further analyzed, and Days 1 and 7 prognostic models were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to identify and compared the predictors of prognosis among our model.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed significant risk factors at Days 1 and 7, which when combined with the clinically important parameters, were used to establish the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models. For 28-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Day 1 prognostic model was significantly higher than that of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) model. For 90-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models was significantly higher than that of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and ALBI prognostic models.

Conclusions

The prognostic models established in this study were superior to the existing prognostic scoring systems to accurately predict short-term mortality, and therefore, could be potential novel prognostic tools for HBV-ACLF.

Impact of Onset Time, Number, Type, and Sequence of Extrahepatic Organ Failure on Prognosis of Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aims

The impact of the characteristics of extrahepatic organ failure (EHOF) including the onset time, number, type, and sequence on the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients remains unknown. This study aimed to identify the association between the characteristics of EHOF and the prognosis of ACLF patients.

Methods

ACLF subjects enrolled at six hospitals in China were included in the analysis. The risk of mortality based on the characteristics of EHOF was evaluated. Survival of study groups was compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests.

Results

A total of 736 patients with ACLF were included. EHOF was observed in 402 patients (54.6%), of which 295 (73.4%) developed single EHOF (SEHOF) and 107 (26.6%) developed multiple EHOF (MEHOF). The most commonly observed EHOF was coagulation failure (47.0%), followed by renal (13.0%), brain (4.9%), respiratory (4.3%), and circulatory (2.3%) failure. Survival analysis found that MEHOF or SEHOF patients with brain failure had a worse prognosis. However, no significant outcome was found in the analysis of the effect of onset time and sequence of failed organs on prognosis. Patients were further divided into three risk subgroups by the EHOF characteristics. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that risk stratification resulted in the differentiation of patients with different risks of mortality both in the training and validation cohorts.

Conclusions

The mortality of ACLF patients was determined by the number and type, but not the onset time and sequence of EHOF. Risk stratification applicable to clinical practice was established.

Pathophysiology of Hepatorenal Syndrome

Hepatorenal syndrome type 1 (HRS-1) is a unique form of acute kidney injury that affects individuals with decompensated cirrhosis with ascites. The primary mechanism leading to reduction of kidney function in HRS-1 is hemodynamic in nature. Cumulative evidence points to a cascade of events that led to a profound reduction in kidney perfusion. A state of increased intrahepatic vascular resistance characteristic of advanced cirrhosis and portal hypertension is accompanied by maladaptive peripheral arterial vasodilation and reduction in systemic vascular resistance and mean arterial pressure. As a result of a fall in effective arterial blood volume, there is a compensatory activation of the sympathetic nervous system and the renin-angiotensin system, local renal vasoconstriction, loss of renal autoregulation, decrease in renal blood flow, and ultimately a fall in glomerular filtration rate. Systemic release of nitric oxide stimulated by the fibrotic liver, bacterial translocation, and inflammation constitute key components of the pathogenesis. While angiotensin II and noradrenaline remain the critical mediators of renal arterial and arteriolar vasoconstriction, other novel molecules have been recently implicated. Although the above-described mechanistic pathway remains the backbone of the pathogenesis of HRS-1, other noxious elements may be present in advanced cirrhosis and likely contribute to the renal impairment. Direct liver-kidney crosstalk via the hepatorenal sympathetic reflex can further reduce renal blood flow independently of the systemic derangements. Tense ascites may lead to intraabdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome. Cardio-hemodynamic processes have also been increasingly recognized. Porto-pulmonary hypertension, cirrhotic cardiomyopathy, and abdominal compartment syndrome may lead to renal congestion and complicate the course of HRS-1. In addition, a degree of ischemic or toxic (cholemic) tubular injury may overlap with the underlying circulatory dysfunction and further exacerbate the course of acute kidney injury. Improving our understanding of the pathogenesis of HRS-1 may lead to improvements in therapeutic options for this seriously ill population.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Causes, Clinical Parameters, and Predictors of Mortality

Objectives This study aimed to identify the causes, clinical characteristics, and 28-day in-hospital mortality predictors in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods A cross-sectional study enrolled sixty-four patients aged 18-70 years with acute-on-chronic liver failure. The study was conducted at the Gastroenterology Department, Lahore General Hospital. The study classified ACLF according to the criteria of the European Association for the Study of the Liver - Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF). Patients were followed for 28 days for mortality outcomes. The outcomes between Survivor and Non-survivor groups were compared using the Chi-Square/Fisher's Exact Test for categorical variables and the Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. Results In this study, age and duration of chronic liver disease were not significantly different between survivors and non-survivors. The etiology of liver disease and ACLF causes had no impact on 28-day mortality. Non-survivors had lower mean arterial pressure, and higher mortality was linked with lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and Grade IV hepatic encephalopathy. Significant differences in bilirubin, serum creatinine, urea, and C-reactive protein levels were observed at 28 days. Survival rates were highest with single organ failure (35.94%) and decreased with multiple organ failures. The overall survival rate was 51.56%. Predictive validity for mortality was assessed using the Area Under the Curve (AUC), with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) at 0.679, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) at 0.819, and Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) at 0.771. Conclusion This study concludes that in acute-on-chronic liver failure, factors like age, gender, and disease etiology do not significantly predict 28-day mortality. Key mortality indicators include clinical parameters such as lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores, hepatic encephalopathy Grade IV, and laboratory findings like elevated bilirubin and serum creatinine. The MELD score is the most compelling prognostic tool.

The efficacy and safety of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in the treatment of acute-on-chronic liver failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The safety and efficacy of granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) for the treatment of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) remain controversial. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of G-CSF in treating ACLF.

METHODS

The estimated pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) assessed the treatment effects of G-CSF. Mean differences (MD) and 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze continuous data. Heterogeneity was explored by sensitivity analysis. Potential publication bias was assessed using Egger's test.

RESULTS

Ten studies, comprising a total of 603 participants, were included in the analysis. The G-CSF group showed significantly lower MELD scores at 7-day (MD = -2.39, 95%CI: -3.95 to -0.82), CTP scores at 7-day (MD = -0.77, 95%CI: -1.41 to -0.14), and MELD scores at 30-day (MD = -3.01, 95%CI: -5.36 to -0.67) compared to the control group. Furthermore, the G-CSF group was associated with a reduced risk of sepsis (RR = 0.53, 95%CI: 0.35-0.80). The 30-day survival (RR = 1.26, 95%CI:1.10-1.43), 60-day survival (RR = 1.47, 95%CI:1.17-1.84, and 90-day survival (RR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.27-2.35) of patients with ACLF treated with G-CSF were significantly higher than those of the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis suggests that G-CSF therapy may be a promising treatment for ACLF, with significant improvements in liver function and survival rates, however, further studies are needed to verify this conclusion.

Challenges in Diagnosis and Therapeutic Approach of Acute on Chronic Liver Failure-A Review of Current Evidence

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by acute and severe decompensation of chronic liver disease (CLD) correlated with multiple organ failure, poor prognosis, and increased mortality. In 40-50% of ACLF cases, the trigger is not recognized; for many of these patients, bacterial translocation associated with systemic inflammation is thought to be the determining factor; in the other 50% of patients, sepsis, alcohol consumption, and reactivation of chronic viral hepatitis are the most frequently described trigger factors. Other conditions considered precipitating factors are less common, including acute alcoholic hepatitis, major surgery, TIPS insertion, or inadequate paracentesis without albumin substitution. Host response is likely the primary factor predicting ACLF severity and prognosis, the host immune response having a particular significance in this syndrome, together with the inflammatory cascade. The management of ACLF includes both the prevention of the precipitating factors that lead to acute liver decompensation and the support of vital functions, the prevention and management of complications, the estimation of prognosis, and the opportunity for liver transplantation.

MicroRNA-124 expression in Kupffer cells modulates liver injury by targeting IL-6/STAT3 signaling

MicroRNA-124 (miR-124) is related to liver injury due to chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). However, the mechanism whereby miR-124 regulates liver inflammation remains unknown. In this study, we show that serum miR-124 serves as a compensatory predictive factor for organ failure and the 28-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. Moreover, within a mouse model of concanavalin A-induced acute liver injury, miR-124 is highly expressed in Kupffer cells. Overexpression of miR-124 significantly decreases interleukin-6 (IL-6) secretion, and relieves pathological liver necrosis to a great extent. Mechanistically, miR-124 directly targets the 3'-untranslated region of signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) and inhibits IL-6/STAT3 signaling, which reduces pro-inflammatory Kupffer cell polarization. Collectively, our findings suggest that miR-124 can potentially serve as a predictive biomarker for HBV-ACLF prognosis and may represent a promising therapeutic target for relieving severe liver injury resulting from cytokine storms.

Follow-up value of serum AFP and aminotransferases in chronic hepatitis B progression

Introduction

Chronic viral hepatitis (CH) is a stage prior to cirrhosis and primary cancer. Standard protocols for CH assessment during the long follow-up period are of great importance for precise treatment and living quality improvement. In this study, we aimed to analyze multiple serum indexes in chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-infected patients and to discuss their combined values in clinical applications.

Methods

Total 503 lines of laboratory data from 2012 to 2021 were extracted from103 CHB patients who were followed-up in our hospital. They were divided into the remission group and the progression group according to their complete clinical information and laboratory data. A series of models of serum indexes were analyzed to illustrate the fluctuation trend of @ach index in a time-dependent manner.

Results

The models revealed that abundant serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in the remission group was characteristically associated with hepatocyte destruction markers aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase and favored a much longer progression-free period (P 0.0001). A model-derived equation consisting of serum AFP and AST values showed a good performance (83% reliability) to distinguish the two groups.

Discussion

This study clearly demonstrates the intrinsic quantitative relationship between serum AFP and liver aminotransferases involving antivirus treatment response. The model-based equation compensates for serum hepatitis B virus DNA detection during outpatient follow-up and it may serve as a useful laboratory tool for CHB progression assessment.

The impact of serum thyroid-stimulation hormone levels on the outcome of hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure: an observational study

Background

Thyroid dysfunction has been reported in severe liver diseases. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of serum thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels on the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 1,862 patients with HBV-related ACLF. Risk factors associated with 30-day and 90-day survival, hazard ratios (HRs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for TSH were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. The Area Under the ROC curve (AUROC) analysis was carried out, and the cut-off values were calculated. After grouping by the cut-off value, survival was compared between the groups using the log-rank test. This study data is from the “Survival Cohort Study (SCS)”, which has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03992898).

Results

Multivariate analysis indicated that an elevated TSH level was a highly significant predictor for 30-day survival (HR = 0.743, 95% CI: 0.629–0.878, P < 0.001) and 90-day survival (HR = 0.807, 95% CI: 0.717–0.909, P < 0.001). The AUROC of TSH level for 30-day and 90-day mortality were 0.655 and 0.620, respectively, with the same best cut-off values of 0.261 µIU/mL. Log-rank test showed that the group with higher TSH level had higher 30-day (78.5%, 95% CI: 76.1%-80.9% vs. 56.9%, 95% CI: 53.4%-60.4%; P < 0.001) and 90-day survival rate (61.5%, 95% CI: 58.6%-64.4% vs. 42.8%, 95% CI: 39.3%-46.3%; P < 0.001). Similar findings were observed in subgroups analysis. After adjusting for age and other risk factors, the higher level of TSH remained associated with 30-day survival (HR = 0.602, 95% CI: 0.502–0.721, P < 0.001) and 90-day survival (HR = 0.704, 95% CI, 0.609–0.814, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Serum TSH level significantly correlate with HBV-related ACLF patients’ survival and may be of value for predicting 30-day and 90-day survival of patients with HBV-related ACLF.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02406-7.

Risk factors for underlying comorbidities and complications in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a severe and life-threatening complication, characterised by multi-organ failure and high short-term mortality. However, there is limited information on the impact of various comorbidities on HBV-ACLF in a large population. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between comorbidities, complications and mortality. In this retrospective observational study, we identified 2166 cases of HBV-ACLF hospitalised from January 2010 to March 2018. Demographic data from the patients, medical history, treatment, laboratory indices, comorbidities and complications were collected. The mortality rate in our study group was 47.37%. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was the most common comorbidity, followed by alcoholic liver disease. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, pneumonia and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) were common in these patients. Diabetes mellitus and hyperthyroidism are risk factors for death within 90 days, together with gastrointestinal bleeding and HE at admission, HE and hepatorenal syndrome during hospitalisation. Knowledge of risk factors can help identify HBV-ACLF patients with a poor prognosis for HBV-ACLF with comorbidities and complications.

Safety and efficacy of Thymosin α1 in the treatment of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

Mortality from hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is high. Severe infection is the most important complication that affects the outcomes of ACLF patients. Thymosin α1 (Tα1) can improve immune imbalance and this study aimed to investigate the safety and efficacy of Tα1 treatment for HBV-related ACLF.

METHODS

From 2017 to 2019, 120 patients with HBV-related ACLF were enrolled in this open-label, randomized, and controlled clinical trial (ClinicalTrial ID: NCT03082885). The control group (N = 58) was treated with standard medical therapy (SMT) only. The experimental group (N = 56) was subcutaneously injected with 1.6 mg of Tα1 once a day for the first week and then twice a week from week 2 to week 12.

RESULTS

The 90-day cumulated liver transplantation free survival rate of the Tα1 group was 75.0% (95% confidence interval 63.2-86.8%) versus 53.4% (95% confidence interval 39.7-67.1%) for the SMT group (p = 0.030). No significant difference was found in the survival using competitive risk analysis. The incidences of new infection and hepatic encephalopathy in the Tα1 group were much lower than those in the SMT group (32.1% vs 58.6%, p = 0.005; 8.9% vs 24.1%, p = 0.029, respectively). Mortality from severe infection in the SMT group was higher than in the Tα1 group (24.1% vs 8.9%, p = 0.029).

CONCLUSION

Tα1 is safe for patients with HBV-related ACLF and significantly improves the 90-day liver transplantation-free survival rate. There may be a subgroup which may benefit from Tα1 therapy by the mechanism of preventing infection.

Predictors of mortality at 28-days in infection associated acute kidney injury in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhosis is important complication with poor outcomes. And infections are common cause for acute decompensation. Infections in cirrhosis lead to acute deterioration of hemodynamics leading to precipitation of AKI.

AIM

To study predictors of mortality in patients with infection-associated AKI in cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational study conducted at tertiary care centre from January 2018 till April 2019. Total 119 participants with cirrhosis of liver presenting with AKI were included into the study. AKI was defined as per international club of Ascites-AKI criteria 2015. Patients were grouped into infection AKI and non-infection AKI. Non-infection AKI included patients with diuretic induced AKI and pre-renal AKI. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of mortality at 28-d.

RESULTS

Out of 119 patients, alcohol (n = 104) was most common etiology of cirrhosis. The infection AKI included 67 (56%) patients and non-infection AKI (n = 52) included pre-renal AKI in 36 (30%) and diuretic-induced AKI in 16 (14%) patients. Infection AKI had significantly higher bilirubin, higher international normalized ratio (INR), low serum sodium, higher total leukocyte count (TLC) and higher prevalence of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) as compared to non-infection AKI. Infection AKI had higher progression of AKI (19/67 vs 2/52; P = 0.01) and 28-d mortality (38/67 vs 4/5; P ≤ 0.01) as compared to non-infection AKI. At 28-d, non-survivors (n = 42) had significantly higher bilirubin, higher INR, low serum sodium, higher TLC and higher prevalence of HE as compared to survivors (n = 77). On subgroup analysis of Infection AKI group, on multivariate analysis, serum bilirubin as well as presence of HE were independent predictors of 28-d mortality. There was no significant difference of mortality at 90-d between two groups.

CONCLUSION

Infection AKI in cirrhosis has a dismal prognosis with higher 28-d mortality as compared to non-infection AKI. Serum bilirubin and presence of HE predict 28-d mortality in infection AKI.

Utility of prognostic scores in predicting short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct syndrome associated with high short-term mortality. Early identification of patients at high risk is essential to determine emergency for transplantation and decide and prioritize the need for intensive care unit (ICU). We aimed to evaluate the performance of the different prognostic scores in the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with ACLF. A total of 249 patients with ACLF were included and followed till discharge from the hospital. Univariate and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the performance of liver-specific (Child-Pugh and MELD) and ACLF prognostic scores (CLIF-C OF, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C AD, CLIF-C ACLF) in the prediction of in-hospital mortality.

Results

Patients were mostly males (71.1%) with a mean age of 53.9 ± 12.8 years. The etiology of pre-existing liver disease was HCV in 57.8%. Sepsis was the most common precipitating factor (49.8%) and the mortality rate was 74.3%. In univariate analysis, all scores were significantly higher in the deceased group (P<0.0001). AUROC were 0.897, 0.884, 0.870, 0.861, 0.861, and 0.850 for CLIF-C OF, CLIF-C AD, CLIF-C ACLF, Child-Pugh, CLIF-SOFA, and MELD scores, respectively. In multivariate analysis, 2 independent predictors of mortality were identified: CLIF-C ACLF score (OR 3.25, 95% CI 1.03–10.25, P<0.0001) and Child-Pugh class C (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06, P=0.044).

Conclusions

All the studied scores could predict in-hospital mortality of patients with ACLF. However, CLIF-C ACLF and Child-Pugh class performed better as they could significantly and independently predict mortality.

Hepatitis E virus infection in a patient with alcohol related chronic liver disease: a case report of acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

The hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection has been described as a causing factor for acute-on-chronic-liver-failure (ACLF) in patients with underlying chronic liver disease (CLD), such as chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis, which could end in the failure of one or more organs and high short-term mortality. There are scarce data about the association of HEV in patients with chronic liver disorders in South America.

Case presentation

A 56-year-old hypertensive male with a history of type 2 diabetes was diagnosed with alcohol-related-liver cirrhosis in February 2019. A year later, the patient was admitted to hospital due to fatigue, jaundice and acholia. No evidence of hepatitis A virus, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, Epstein–Barr virus, herpes zoster virus and cytomegalovirus infections were found. Nevertheless, in February and March, 2020 the patient was positive for HEV-IgM and HEV-IgG, and HEV genotype 3 RNA was detected in sera. Afterwards, he presented grade I hepatic encephalopathy and, therefore, was diagnosed with acute hepatitis E-on-chronic liver disease. The patient reported a recent travel to the Argentine coast, where he consumed seafood. Besides, he reveled to have consumed pork meat and had no history of blood transfusion.

Conclusion

This report describes a unique case of hepatitis E virus infection in a patient with alcohol-related cirrhosis. This is the first report of a patient with HEV-related ACLF in Argentina and it invokes the importance of HEV surveillance and treatment among patients with CLD, such as alcohol-related cirrhosis.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Pathophysiological Mechanisms and Management

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a multifaceted condition with poor treatment options and high short-term mortality. ACLF can develop in patients with or without liver cirrhosis, where patients with decompensated cirrhosis display a higher risk of short-term mortality. Pathophysiological mechanisms include systemic inflammation due to bacterial and fungal infections and acute hepatic insult with drug, alcohol, and viral hepatitis. Cryptogenic factors also contribute to the development of ACLF. The clinical outcome of patients with ACLF gets further complicated by the occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, and systemic immune dysfunction. Regardless of the better understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms, no specific and definitive treatment is available except for liver transplantation. The recent approach of regenerative medicine using mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) could be advantageous for the treatment of ACLF as these cells can downregulate inflammatory response by inducing antiinflammatory events and prevent hepatic damage and fibrosis by inhibiting hepatic stellate cell activation and collagen synthesis. Moreover, MSCs are involved in tissue repair by the process of liver regeneration. Considering the broad therapeutic potential of MSCs, it can serve as an alternative treatment to liver transplant in the near future, if promising results are achieved.

A Prospective Multicenter Study of the Chinese Scoring System for Hepatitis B Liver Failure

Objective: To evaluate the clinical utility of a Chinese scoring system for hepatitis B liver failure in a prospective and multicenter study. Methods: Clinical data for 1,143 patients with hepatitis B liver failure who had been followed up for a minimum of 6 months were collected from seven liver disease centers across China. The disease severity and prognosis for the patients were predicted using the Chinese scoring system and compared to those predicted with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, MELD-Na score, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. Results: The Chinese scoring system was more effective at predicting the outcomes of survival and mortality than the MELD score. In the peak disease stage, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the Chinese scoring system was 0.954, significantly higher than that (0.896) for the MELD scoring system (P < 0.001). The positive prediction at 30, 90, and 180 days with the Chinese scoring system was 0.764 (95% CI: 0.714-0.808), 0.731 (95% CI: 0.694-0.769), and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.679-0.765), also significantly higher than that with the MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP scores (P < 0.001). In addition, the Chinese scoring system was superior to the MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP scores (P < 0.001) at predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B liver failure at both 30 and 180 days. Conclusion: The Chinese scoring system demonstrated superior performance to the three established scoring systems in assessing the severity and outcomes of hepatitis B liver failure in this cohort.

Excellent Outcome in Living Donor Liver Transplantation: Treating Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a fatal condition, and liver transplantation (LT) is a vital option for these patients. However, the result of living donor LT (LDLT) for ACLF is not well investigated. This study investigated the outcomes of LDLT in patients with ACLF compared with patients without ACLF. This was a single-center, retrospective, matched case-control study. From July 2002 to March 2017, a total of 112 patients with ACLF who underwent LDLT were enrolled according to the consensus of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver. A total of 224 patients were selected for control comparison (non-ACLF) with demographic factors (sex, age, and body mass index) matched (1:2). Patients with ACLF were stratified into ACLF 1, 2, and 3 categories according to the number of organ failures based on the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. Survival and surgical outcomes after LDLT were analyzed. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores in the ACLF group were significantly higher than those in the non-ACLF group (P < 0.001). The 90-day, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates in the ACLF and non-ACLF groups were 97.3%, 95.5%, 92.9%, respectively, and 96.9%, 94.2%, and 91.1%, respectively (P = 0.58). There was more intraoperative blood loss in the ACLF group than in the non-ACLF group (P < 0.001). The other postoperative complications were not significantly different between the groups. A total of 20 patients (17.9%) in the ACLF group presented with 3 or more organ system dysfunctions (ACLF 3), and the 90-day, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were comparable with those of ACLF 1 and ACLF 2 (P = 0.25). In carefully selected patients, LDLT gives excellent outcomes in patients with ACLF regardless of the number of organs involved. Comprehensive perioperative care and timely transplantation play crucial roles in saving the lives of patients with ACLF.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure in children

Although various complex definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) have been suggested in relation to adult patients, there is currently no universal definition of the syndrome in pediatric patients. In simplified terms, ACLF is characterized by the acute deterioration of the liver functions due to the effects of a precipitating factor on the basis of a chronic liver disease. Acute events and underlying liver diseases are very different in children from those seen in adults. Moreover, acute events and underlying chronic liver diseases vary among geographical regions, although it seems that the most common such diseases and acute events are autoimmune hepatitis, Wilson’s disease, and their flares. ACLF is associated with a poor prognosis. While no scoring systems have been developed to predict the prognosis for children with ACLF, modified versions of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the liver’s acute-on-chronic liver failure scoring system and the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment criteria can be used in children until specific and validated scoring systems are available. Aside from liver transplantation, there is no proven treatment for ACLF. Thus, the early recognition of ACLF prior to the development of extrahepatic organ failure is important.

'First week' is the crucial period for deciding living donor liver transplantation in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a rapidly progressive illness with high short-term mortality. Timely liver transplant (LT) may improve survival. We evaluated various indices for assessment of the severity of liver failure and their application for eligibility and timing of living donor LT (LDLT).

METHODS

Altogether 1021 patients were analyzed for the severity and organ failure at admission to determine transplant eligibility and 28 day survival with or without transplant.

RESULTS

The ACLF cohort [mean age 44 ± 12.2 years, males 81%) was of sick patients; 55% willing for LT at admission, though 63% of them were ineligible due to sepsis or organ failure. On day 4, recovery in sepsis and/or organ failure led to an improvement in transplant eligibility from 37% at baseline to 63.7%. Delay in LT up to 7 days led to a higher incidence of multiorgan failure (p < 0.01) contributing to 23% of the first week and 55% of all-cause 28-day mortality. In a matched cohort analysis, the actuarial survival with LT (n = 41) and conditional survival in the absence of transplant (n = 191) were comparable, when the condition, i.e., transplant was adjusted. The comparison curve showed differentiation in survival beyond 7 days (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

ACLF is a rapidly progressive disease and risk stratification within the first week of hospitalization is needed. 'Emergent LT' should be defined in the first week in the ACLF patients; the transplant window for improving survival in a live donor setting.

Liver Transplantation in Patients with Acute-onChronic Liver Failure: Challenging the Limits

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is one of the main causes of death on the waiting list. Liver transplantation (LT) is the only curative treatment for patients with ACLF and therefore it should be considered in all cases. However, the applicability of LT in patients with ACLF is challenging, given the scarcity of donors and the high short-term mortality of these patients. Organ allocation has traditionally been prioritised according to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) system. However, the accuracy of MELD score is limited in patients with ACLF. In this article, the authors review the outcomes of patients with ACLF before and after LT, highlighting its clinical course, the feasibility of LT in the sickest patients, the role of the organ allocation system, and possible indicators of futility.

Impact of Hepatic Encephalopathy on Clinical Characteristics and Adverse Outcomes in Prospective and Multicenter Cohorts of Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Diseases

Importance: Hepatic encephalopathy is a severe complication, and its contribution to clinical adverse outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases from the East is unclear.

Objective: We aimed to investigate the impact of hepatic encephalopathy on clinical characteristics and adverse outcomes in prospective and multicenter cohorts of patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases.

Design: We conducted a cohort study of two multicenter prospective cohorts.

Setting: China.

Participants: Acute-on-chronic liver disease patients with various etiologies.

Exposure: The diagnosis and severity of hepatic encephalopathy were assessed using the West Haven scale.

Main Outcome Measure: The correlation between clinical adverse outcomes and varying hepatic encephalopathy grades was analyzed in the target patients.

Results: A total of 3,949 patients were included, and 340 of them had hepatic encephalopathy. The incidence of hepatic encephalopathy was higher in patients with alcohol consumption (9.90%) than in those with hepatitis B virus infection (6.17%). The incidence of 28- and 90-day adverse outcomes increased progressively from hepatic encephalopathy grades 1–4. Logistic regression analysis revealed that hepatic encephalopathy grades 3 and 4 were independent risk factors for the 28- and 90-day adverse outcome in the fully adjusted model IV. Stratified analyses showed similar results in the different subgroups. Compared to grades 1–2 and patients without hepatic encephalopathy, those with grade 3 hepatic encephalopathy had a significant increase in clinical adverse outcomes, independent of other organ failures.

Conclusions and Relevance: Hepatic encephalopathy grades 3–4 were independent risk factors for 28- and 90-day adverse outcomes. Hepatic encephalopathy grade 3 could be used as an indicator of brain failure in patients with acute-on-chronic liver disease.

Current knowledge about biomarkers of acute kidney injury in liver cirrhosis

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in advanced cirrhosis. Prerenal azotemia, hepatorenal syndrome, and acute tubular necrosis are the main causes of AKI in patients with cirrhosis. Evaluation of renal function and differentiation between functional and structural kidney injury are important issues in the management of cirrhosis. However, AKI in cirrhosis exists as a complex clinical spectrum rather than concrete clinical entity. Based on current evidence, changes in serum creatinine (Cr) levels remain the most appropriate standard for defining AKI in cirrhosis. However, serum Cr has a limited role in assessing renal function in this population. This review examines previous studies that investigated the ability of recent biomarkers for AKI in cirrhosis from the perspective of earlier and accurate diagnosis, classification of AKI phenotype, and prediction of clinical outcomes. Serum cystatin C and urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin have been extensively studied in cirrhosis, and have facilitated improved diagnosis and prognosis prediction in patients with AKI. In addition, urine N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase, interleukin 18, and kidney injury molecule 1 are other promising biomarkers for advanced cirrhosis. However, the clinical significance of these markers remains unclear because there are no cut-off values defining the normal range and differentiating phenotypes of AKI. In addition, AKI has been defined in terms of serum Cr, and renal biopsy-the gold standard-has not been carried out in most studies. Further discovery of innovate biomarkers and incorporation of various markers could improve the diagnosis and prognosis prediction of AKI, and will translate into meaningful improvements in patient outcomes.

Low hemoglobin levels are associated with direct antiglobulin test positivity in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Multiple factors contribute to anemia in patients with Hepatitis B virus (HBV)related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF); however, the mechanism is unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical significance of the direct antiglobulin test (DAT) in patients with HBV related ACLF.

METHODS

DAT was used to detect immunoglobulins and/or complement proteins on the surface of erythrocytes.

RESULTS

We recruited 78 HBV-associated ACLF patients, 30 chronic hepatitis B(CHB)patients and 40 healthy people between October 2015 and May 2016. In HBV related ACLF patients, the hemoglobin concentration, number of erythrocytes, and hematocrit value were significantly lower, while the erythrocyte distribution width was significantly higher, compared to patients with CHB and healthy controls (HCs) (P < 0.001). The rates of DAT positivity in HBV related ACLF patients, CHB patients, and HCs were 62.8 %, 13.3 %, and 0%, respectively. DAT-positive ACLF patients exhibited lower Hb levels, older average age, as well as higher total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase, and complement component 3 levels compared to DAT-negative patients.

CONCLUSIONS

HBV related ACLF patients showed significant alterations in erythrocyte parameters, possibly reflecting disease development and severity. The high presence of erythrocyte autoantibodies suggested that immunologic clearance of erythrocytes contributed to multifactorial anemia in HBV related ACLF patients.

Derivation and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting 90-Day Survival in Patients With HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background: Conventional prognostic models do not fully reflect the severity of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). This study aimed to establish an effective and convenient nomogram for patients with HBV-related ACLF. Methods: A nomogram was developed based on a retrospective cohort of 1,353 patients treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2010 to June 2016. The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, and were compared with current scoring systems. The results were validated using an independent retrospective cohort of 669 patients consecutively treated at the same institution from July 2016 to March 2018. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03992898). Results: Multivariable analysis of the derivation cohort found that independent predictors of 90-day survival were age, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin (Hb), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio, serum creatinine (Cr), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), serum sodium (Na), hepatic encephalopathy (HE), pre-existing chronic liver disease(PreLD), and HBV DNA load. All factors were included in the nomogram. The nomogram calibration curve for the probability of 90-day survival indicated that nomogram-based predictions were in good agreement with actual observations. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.790, which was statistically significantly greater than those for the current scoring systems in the derivation cohort (P < 0.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusions: The proposed nomogram is more accurate in predicting the 90-day survival of patients with HBV-related ACLF than current commonly used methods.

Predictors of early mortality among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background and Aim

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a transpiring entity, which possesses high short-term/early mortality (28 days). Several mortality predictors have been studied, but none were proved reliable. Serum ferritin, an acute phase reactant and marker of hepatic necro-inflammation, is found to predict mortality in multiple liver diseases. We aimed to evaluate the role of serum ferritin and other clinical features, biochemical parameters and conventional scoring systems in predicting early mortality among ACLF.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was done from October 2017 to March 2019 at a tertiary care (non-transplant) center in eastern India. A total of consecutive 50 ACLF patients diagnosed, based on Asia Pacific Association for the Study of liver disease definition, were investigated for ferritin and other laboratory parameters on day-0, day-7, and followed up for 28 days.

Results

Although the majority did not have organ failure (ACLF grade 0) according to European Association for Study of Liver-chronic liver failure sequential organ failure assessment criteria, early mortality was high (56%). On undergoing univariate analysis, multiple variables (ascites, HE, creatinine, total leucocyte count (TLC), bilirubin, albumin) predicted mortality. However, on multivariate analysis, only total bilirubin independently predicted. None of the scores on day-0 were predictive, while model for end-stage liver disease [area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC)-0.703, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.535-0.859] and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (AUROC-0.697, 95% CI: 0.550-0.855) on day-7 did.

Conclusion

ACLF is a dynamic process; day-7 assessment with above predictors, to be considered a milestone for prognostication and opting treatment modalities. Serum ferritin does not predict early mortality in ACLF.

World Gastroenterology Organisation classification and a new type-based prognostic model for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

The acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) classification, proposed by the World Gastroenterology Organisation (WGO), attempts to cover all ACLF patients diagnosed in the East and West. This study aimed to explore and establish a prognostic model based on this classification.

METHODS

A total of 1159 hepatitis B virus-ACLF patients, enrolled with 90-day follow-up data, were divided into three groups (type A, B, and C) according to WGO ACLF classification and analyzed. A model of ACLF prognosis based on type (MAPT) was developed in a derivation cohort (n = 566); its reproducibility was tested in a validation cohort (n = 593).

RESULTS

A significant difference in 90-day mortality among the three groups was observed (31.1%, type A; 40.9%, type B; 61.4%, type C, P < 0.001). ACLF type was determined to be an independent risk factor of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. An MAPT, inclusive of type and five other variables, was built and validated; it was found to be superior to the Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium ACLF score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, CLIF-Sequential Organ Failure, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores in predicting 90-day mortality, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.802 (95% CI [0.763-0.836]), sensitivity of 71.77%, and specificity of 75.82%.

CONCLUSIONS

The MAPT model showed excellent predictive value for 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF and can likely expand the clinical application of WGO ACLF classification.

Admission Serum Urea is a Better Predictor of Mortality than Creatinine in Patients With Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure and Acute Kidney Injury

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) negatively impacts the survival of patients. There are scant data on the impact of serum urea on outcomes in these patients. We performed this study to evaluate the relationship between admission serum urea and the survival in patients with ACLF and AKI.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted on patients with ACLF (as per Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver criteria) and AKI (as per Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria) hospitalized in the gastroenterology ward between October 2016 and May 2018. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded, and outcomes were compared in patients with respect to the admission serum urea level.

RESULTS

A total of 103 of 143 hospitalized patients with ACLF had AKI and were included as study subjects. The discrimination ability between survivors and the deceased was similar for serum urea levels (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] [95% confidence interval {CI}]: 28 days survival, 0.76 [0.67-0.85]; 90 days survival, 0.81 [0.72-0.91]) and serum creatinine levels (AUROC [95% CI]: 28 days survival, 0.75 [0.66-0.84]; 90 days survival: 0.77 [0.67-0.88]) in patients with ACLF and AKI. However, on multivariate analysis, admission serum urea (not serum creatinine) was an independent predictor of mortality in these patients both at 28 days (p = 0.001, adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 1.013 [1.005-1.021]) and 90 days (p = 0.001, AHR: 1.014 [1.006-1.022]).

CONCLUSION

Over two-thirds of patients with ACLF had AKI. The discrimination ability between survivors and the deceased was similar for both serum urea and serum creatinine levels. However admission serum urea was found to be a better predictor of mortality than serum creatinine in patients with ACLF and AKI.

Impact of metabolic risk factors on the severity and outcome of patients with alcohol-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Metabolic risk factors may impact the severity and outcome of alcoholic liver disease. The present study evaluated this effect in patients with alcohol-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODOLOGY

One thousand two hundred and sixteen prospectively enrolled patients with ACLF (males 98%, mean age 42.5 ± 9.4 years, mean CTP, MELD and AARC scores of 12 ± 1.4, 29.7 ± 7 and 9.8 ± 2 respectively) from the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database were analysed retrospectively. Patients with or without metabolic risk factors were compared for severity (CTP, MELD, AARC scores) and day 30 and 90 mortality. Information on overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension and dyslipidaemia were available in 1028 (85%), 1019 (84%), 1017 (84%) and 965 (79%) patients respectively.

RESULTS

Overall, 392 (32%) patients died at day 30 and 528 (43%) at day 90. Overweight/obesity, T2DM, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were present in 154 (15%), 142 (14%), 66 (7%) and 141 (15%) patients, respectively, with no risk factors in 809 (67%) patients. Patients with overweight/obesity had higher MELD scores (30.6 ± 7.1 vs 29.2 ± 6.9, P = .007) and those with dyslipidaemia had higher AARC scores (10.4 ± 1.2 vs 9.8 ± 2, P = .014). Overweight/obesity was associated with increased day 30 mortality (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.24, P = .023). None of other metabolic risk factors, alone or in combination, had any impact on disease severity or mortality. On multivariate analysis, overweight or obesity was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (aHR 1.91, 95% CI 1.41-2.59, P < .001), independent of age, CTP, MELD and AARC scores.

CONCLUSION

Overweight/obesity and dyslipidaemia increase the severity of alcohol-associated ACLF, and the former also increases the short-term mortality in these patients.

Viral Hepatitis E and Chronicity: A Growing Public Health Concern

Hepatitis E viral infection recently emerges as a global health concern. Over the last decade, the understanding of hepatitis E virus (HEV) had changed with the discovery of new genotypes like genotype-7 and genotype-8 with associated host and mode of infection. Diversification in the mode of hepatitis E infection transmission through blood transfusion, and organ transplants in contrast to classical feco-oral and zoonotic mode is the recent medical concern. The wide spectrum of infection ranging from self-limiting to acute liver failure is now overpowered by HEV genotype-specific chronic infection especially in transplant patients. This concern is further escalated by the extra-hepatic manifestations of HEV targeting the central nervous system (CNS), kidney, heart, and pancreas. However, with the development of advanced efficient cell culture systems and animal models simulating the infection, much clarity toward understanding the pathogenetic mechanism of HEV has been developed. Also this facilitates the development of vaccines research or therapeutics. In this review, we highlight all the novel findings in every aspect of HEV with special emphasis on recently emerging chronic mode of infection with specific diagnosis and treatment regime with an optimistic hope to help virologists and/or liver specialists working in the field of viral hepatitis.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Pregnant Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: A Retrospective Observational Case Series Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is common in patients with end-stage liver disease and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or hepatitis B virus- (HBV-) related cirrhosis. To date, no uniform definition and management strategy are available for ACLF. Although a considerable number of studies on ACLF has been published, there are few reports on ACLF in pregnant women with CHB. This study retrospectively reviewed five patients who were diagnosed with ACLF during pregnancy in the past 10 years. We aimed at investigating their clinical characteristics, treatment, biochemical test results, and maternal and fetal outcomes.

RESULTS

Asthenia, anorexia, and jaundice were the main initial clinical manifestations in these patients during the second or third trimester of pregnancy. All patients received antiviral therapy. None of the pregnant women died after treatment. Patient #4 was treated with an artificial liver support system, and patients #2 and #5 underwent transfusion therapy. The acute insult in all patients was HBV DNA reactivation. Except for patient #3, who chose an actively induced vaginal delivery because of intrauterine fetal demise, the remaining four patients underwent a preterm delivery via a cesarean section. The four neonates were alive, although all were small for gestational age.

CONCLUSION

Asthenia, anorexia, and jaundice during mid-late pregnancy should be immediately investigated. Before and during the pregnancy, hepatologists or obstetricians should actively screen pregnant women with CHB for HBV DNA status and alanine aminotransferase levels. Reactivation of HBV replication in pregnant women with CHB may lead to ACLF, especially in multiparous women. Once ACLF is diagnosed, antiviral therapy should be considered as soon as possible to protect maternal and fetal health.

Clinical prediction for outcomes of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure associated with HBV infection: A new model establishment

Objective

The acute-on-chronic liver failure associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV-ACLF) was a type of clinical syndrome with rapid deterioration of liver function. It was characterized by short-term elevated bilirubin, ascites, prolonged clotting time, hepatic encephalopathy, organ failures, and high short-term mortality. It was important to predict and evaluate the disease early. This study intended to comprehensively analyze the prognostic factors of patients with ACLF associated with HBV DNA infection through clinical manifestations and laboratory tests, and to establish a corresponding prediction and evaluation model for further clinical guidance.

Methods

A total of 220 patients were first diagnosed with HBV-ACLF and admitted to and treated at the Department of Infectious Diseases of the First Affiliated Changhai Hospital of the Second Military Medical University from 2009 to 2018. These patients' records were collected and divided into two groups: (1) 120 patients who were improved and discharged were classified as good prognosis group and (2) 100 patients who died or underwent liver transplantation were classified as poor prognosis group. By analyzing baseline characteristics and clinical indicators of the two groups, the main potential factors affecting prognosis were identified and the corresponding prognostic evaluation model was established. This model's advantages and disadvantages were compared with classic prognostic scoring systems.

Results

The proportion of ascites and the proportion of hepatic encephalopathy of poor prognosis group were significantly higher than those of good prognosis group. The total bilirubin, creatinine, white blood cell count, and NEU (%) levels of poor prognosis group were significantly higher than those of good prognosis group, and the international normalized ratio, albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase, Na, Cl, RBC, and PLT levels of poor prognosis group were significantly lower than those of good prognosis group. A new prediction model LR(p) = 1/(1 + e ^-Z ) was established, where z = 10.0127 + 0.3687 × NEUT (%) - 0.0082 × PLT + 1.8157 × hepatic encephalopathy. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.89, specificity was 80.83%, and sensitivity was 81%. The newly established prognostic model was compared with other three scoring systems including model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, and ALBI scores. The results showed that the specificity, sensitivity, and area under the ROC curve of the newly established model were significantly higher than the other three scoring systems.

Conclusion

Hepatic encephalopathy, NEU (%), and PLT levels were independent risk factors for predicting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. The new prediction model LR(p) had better prediction accuracy than the other three scoring models of MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI and could more accurately assess the prognosis of HBV-ACLF, but in the later stage, it was still necessary to expand the sample size for verification.

The Molar Ratio of Total Branched-chain Amino Acids to Tyrosine Predicts a Digit Symbol Test Abnormality in Cirrhotic Patients

Objective We aimed to investigate the association between the digit symbol test (DST) and clinical characteristics, including the nutritional status of liver cirrhosis patients. Methods Fifty-nine cirrhotic patients without a history of overt hepatic encephalopathy were retrospectively evaluated. We examined neuropsychological abnormalities (NPAs) using the DST. We also estimated the detailed nutritional status using the Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). The patients were divided into two groups according to their DST status: patients with normal DST scores (DST-Nor group, n=45) and those with abnormal DST scores (DST-Abn group, n=14). The clinical and nutritional findings of the two groups were compared. Results Overall, 14 (23.7%) patients had a DST abnormality. There were significant differences between the two groups in serum albumin (Alb; p=0.0043), valine (Val; p=0.0016), leucine (Leu; p=0.0078), isoleucine (Ile; p=0.0022), the molar ratio of total branched-chain amino acids to tyrosine (BTR; p=0.00025), total-bilirubin (T-Bil; p=0.0071), prothrombin time (%) (PT; p=0.028), and serum sodium (Na; p=0.035). A multivariate analysis found the BTR to be the only independent predictor of a DST abnormality (hazard ratio, 9.24; p<0.031). An FFQ analysis, revealed that the nutritional findings of patients with and without a DST abnormality, were similar. Conclusion The BTR was useful for predicting the risk of NPAs, as defined by a DST abnormality. The risk of NPAs may be estimated by monitoring the BTR.

Liver Transplantation for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Science or Fiction?

Acute clinical deterioration of a patient with chronic liver disease remains a decisive time point both in terms of medical management and prognosis. This condition, also known as acute decompensation (AD), is an important event determining a crossroad in the trajectory of patients. A significant number of patients with AD may develop hepatic or extrahepatic organ failure, or both, which defines the syndrome acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), and ACLF is associated with a high morbidity and short-term mortality. ACLF may occur at any phase during chronic liver disease and is pathogenetically defined by systemic inflammation and immune metabolic dysfunction. When organ failures develop in the presence of cirrhosis, especially extrahepatic organ failures, liver transplantation (LT) may be the only curative treatment. This review outlines the evidence supporting LT in ACLF patients, highlighting the role of timing, bridging to LT, and possible indicators of futility. Importantly, prospective studies on ACLF and transplantation are urgently needed.

Application of the Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System in Type 1 Hepatorenal Syndrome in the Course of Alcohol-Related Acute on Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND This study aimed to evaluate the Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS) effectiveness in patients with alcohol-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (AoCLF) complicated with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). So far, MARS efficacy and safety has been demonstrated in various acute liver failure scenarios. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data from 41 MARS procedures (10 patients with type 1 HRS, in the course of alcohol-related AoCLF were considered for this study. Biochemical tests of blood serum were performed before and after each procedure. The condition of patients was determined before and after the treatment with the use of the model for end-stage liver disease - sodium (MELD-Na) and the stage of encephalopathy severity based on the West Haven criteria. RESULTS During the observation period (20.5±13.9 days), 5 patients died, and the remaining 5 surviving patients were discharged from the hospital. In the group of 10, the 14-day survival, starting from the first MARS treatment, was 90%. The MARS procedure was associated with a 19% reduction in bilirubin (27.5±6.1 versus 22.3±4.0 mg/dL, P<0.001), 37% reduction in ammonia (44.1±22.5 versus 27.6±20.9 P<0.001), 27% reduction in creatinine (1.5±1.0 versus 1.1±0.6 mg/dL, P<0.001) and 14% reduction urea (83.8±36.1 versus 72.1±33.3, P<0.001) in blood serum samples, with stable hemodynamic parameters. In the group of patients discharged from the clinic (n=5), the MARS treatments resulted in an improvement in hepatic encephalopathy (West Haven; P=0.043), as well as a reduction in the MELD-Na score (P=0.015). CONCLUSIONS MARS is a hemodynamically safe method for supporting the function of the liver and the kidneys. Application of the MARS reduces the symptoms of encephalopathy in patients with alcohol-related type 1 HRS.

Nomogram based on blood lipoprotein for estimation of mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinic syndrome with substantial high short-term mortality. It is very important to stratify patients according to prognosis to decide management strategy. This study aimed to formulate and validate a nomogram model based on blood lipoprotein for prediction of 3-month mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF.

METHODS

Data on 393 consecutive patients who were diagnosed as HBV-related ACLF at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between June 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, were prospectively collected. Of these, 260 patients who were collected in an earlier period formed the training cohort for the development of nomogram, while 133 patients who were collected thereafter formed the validation cohort for confirming the performance of nomogram.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), age, prothrombin time, and creatinine were independently associated with 3-month mortality of patients with HBV-related ACLF. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the high LDL-C (LDL-C ≥ 1.0 mmol/L, cut-off value) was significantly associated with elevated overall survival (P < 0.001). All independent factors for survival were selected into the nomogram. The calibration plot for the probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

This study highlighted that reduction of serum LDL-C level was an independent risk factor for the survival in patients with HBV-related ACLF, and the nomogram based on serum LDL-C was an accurate and practical model for predicting the 3-month mortality in patients with this disease.

Models for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality in a veterans affairs cohort

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality, making early identification of at-risk patients crucial. To date, there are no models that predict which patients with compensated cirrhosis will develop ACLF, and limited models exist to predict ACLF mortality. We sought to create novel risk prediction models using a large North American cohort.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 75,922 patients with compensated cirrhosis from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) dataset. Using 70% derivation/30% validation sets, we identified ACLF patients using the Asian Pacific Association of Liver (APASL) definition. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models (called VOCAL-Penn) for developing ACLF at 3, 6, and 12 months. We then created prediction models for ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

The VOCAL-Penn models for ACLF development had very good discrimination [concordance (C) statistics of 0.93, 0.92, and 0.89 at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively] and calibration. The mortality models also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C statistics 0.89 and 0.88, respectively), outperforming the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and the APASL ACLF Research Consortium ACLF scores.

CONCLUSION

We have developed novel tools for predicting development of ACLF in compensated cirrhosis patients, as well as for ACLF mortality. These tools may be used to proactively guide patient follow-up, prognostication, escalation of care, and transplant evaluation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting development of APASL ACLF at 3 months (a), 6 months (b), and 1 year (c).

Terlipressin Is Superior to Noradrenaline in the Management of Acute Kidney Injury in Acute on Chronic Liver Failure

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) carries a high short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis and acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF). Terlipressin and noradrenaline are routinely used in cirrhosis with HRS and have been found to be equally effective. There are no data comparing the efficacy of terlipressin with noradrenaline in ACLF patients with HRS. In an open-label, randomized controlled trial (RCT), consecutive patients with ACLF diagnosed with HRS acute kidney injury (AKI) were randomized to albumin with infusion of terlipressin (2-12 mg/day; n = 60) or noradrenaline (0.5-3.0 mg/h; n = 60). Response to treatment, course of AKI, and outcome were studied. Baseline characteristics, including AKI stage and sepsis-related HRS-AKI, were comparable between groups. Compared to noradrenaline, terlipressin achieved greater day 4 (26.1% vs. 11.7%; P = 0.03) and day 7 (41.7% vs. 20%; P = 0.01) response. Reversal of HRS was also better with terlipressin (40% vs. 16.7%; P = 0.004), with a significant reduction in the requirement of renal replacement therapy (RRT; 56.6% vs. 80%; P = 0.006) and improved 28-day survival (48.3% vs. 20%; P = 0.001). Adverse events limiting use of drugs were higher with terlipressin than noradrenaline (23.3% vs. 8.3%; P = 0.02), but were reversible. On multivariate analysis, high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD; odds ratio [OR], 1.10; confidence interval [CI] = 1.009-1.20; P = 0.03) and noradrenaline compared to terlipressin (OR, 3.05; CI = 1.27-7.33; P = 0.01) predicted nonresponse to therapy. Use of noradrenaline compared to terlipressin was also predictive of higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.08; CI = 1.32-3.30; P = 0.002). Conclusion: AKI in ACLF carries a high mortality. Infusion of terlipressin gives earlier and higher response than noradrenaline, with improved survival in ACLF patients with HRS-AKI.

Reappraising the spectrum of AKI and hepatorenal syndrome in patients with cirrhosis

The occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with end-stage liver disease constitutes one of the most challenging clinical scenarios in in-hospital and critical care medicine. Hepatorenal syndrome type 1 (HRS-1), which is a specific type of AKI that occurs in the context of advanced cirrhosis and portal hypertension, is associated with particularly high mortality. The pathogenesis of HRS-1 is largely viewed as a functional derangement that ultimately affects renal vasculature tone. However, new insights suggest that non-haemodynamic tubulo-toxic factors, such as endotoxins and bile acids, might mediate parenchymal renal injury in patients with cirrhosis, suggesting that concurrent mechanisms, including those traditionally associated with HRS-1 and non-traditional factors, might contribute to the development of AKI in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, histological evidence of morphological abnormalities in the kidneys of patients with cirrhosis and renal dysfunction has prompted the functional nature of HRS-1 to be re-examined. From a clinical perspective, a diagnosis of HRS-1 guides utilization of vasoconstrictive therapy and decisions regarding renal replacement therapy. Patients with cirrhosis are at risk of AKI owing to a wide range of factors. However, the tools currently available to ascertain the diagnosis of HRS-1 and guide therapy are suboptimal. Short of liver transplantation, goal-directed haemodynamically targeted pharmacotherapy remains the cornerstone of treatment for this condition; improved understanding of the underlying pathogenic mechanisms might lead to better clinical outcomes. Here, we examine our current understanding of the pathophysiology of HRS-1 and existing challenges in its diagnosis and treatment.

Artificial liver support system therapy in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: Classification and regression tree analysis

Artificial liver support systems (ALSS) are widely used to treat patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The aims of the present study were to investigate the subgroups of patients with HBV-ACLF who may benefit from ALSS therapy, and the relevant patient-specific factors. 489 ALSS-treated HBV-ACLF patients were enrolled, and served as derivation and validation cohorts for classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. CART analysis identified three factors prognostic of survival: hepatic encephalopathy (HE), prothrombin time (PT), and total bilirubin (TBil) level; and two distinct risk groups: low (28-day mortality 10.2–39.5%) and high risk (63.8–91.1%). The CART model showed that patients lacking HE and with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and a TBil level ≤455 μmol/L experienced less 28-day mortality after ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients with HE and a PT > 27.8 s, mortality remained high after such therapy. Patients lacking HE with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and TBil level ≤ 455 μmol/L may benefit markedly from ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients at high risk, unnecessary ALSS therapy should be avoided. The CART model is a novel user-friendly tool for screening HBV-ACLF patient eligibility for ALSS therapy, and will aid clinicians via ACLF risk stratification and therapeutic guidance.

Evaluating the best empirical antibiotic therapy in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a life-threatening complication of advanced cirrhosis. By studying the susceptibility of isolated organisms and analyzing empirical antibiotic therapy combined with clinical outcomes, we aimed to find an improved empirical antibiotic therapy by considering the individual acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) grade for patients with or without sepsis.

METHODS

Clinical outcomes of 182 patients were assessed retrospectively with multivariable regression analysis. Each of the 223 isolates was individually evaluated regarding susceptibility results and intrinsic resistances.

RESULTS

Piperacillin/tazobactam had the highest antimicrobial susceptibility among monotherapies/fixed combinations, which was significantly lower than combination therapies such as meropenem-linezolid (75.3% vs. 98.5%, P < 0.001). The sensitivity of pathogens to empirical antibiotic therapy correlated with significantly lower inpatient mortality (18.9% vs. 37.0%, P = 0.018), shorter inpatient stay (16.3 ± 10.2 vs. 26.4 ± 21.0 days, P = 0.053) and shorter intensive care treatment (2.1 ± 4.5 vs. 7.9 ± 15.4 days, P = 0.016). The largest difference of mortality was observed in patients with ACLF grade 3 (54.5% vs. 73.1% [sensitive vs. non-sensitive]).

CONCLUSION

All SBP patients benefited from efficient empirical antibiotic therapy, regarding the reduced inpatient mortality and complications. For SBP patients with ACLF grade 3 without sepsis, the combination therapy with meropenem-linezolid may be suitable considering the susceptibility results and the concentration in the peritoneal cavity.

Incidence of infectious complications is associated with a high mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

In China, hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is the most common liver failure characterized by serious clinical syndromes of liver decompensation with a very high mortality. Bacterial and/or fungal infections are the most common complications that are associated with high short-term mortality. Bacterial translocation from the intestine, impaired hepatic clearance, and immune paralysis of circulating immune cells are thought to contribute to infectious complications in liver failure. The control of bacterial and fungal infections is the key to improving HBV-ACLF outcomes. Active prevention, early diagnosis, and timely treatment of bacterial and fungal infections are essential for treating HBV-ACLF.

AIM

To investigate the frequency and role of bacterial and fungal infections in patients with HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

Patients with HBV-ACLF hospitalized at Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine from January 2014 to December 2017 were retrospectively enrolled. Patient-related information was retrieved from the hospital case database, including general information, blood biochemistry, complications, etc. According to the occurrence of secondary infection or not, the patients were divided into an infection group and a non-infection group. The sites, types, and incidences of bacterial and fungal infections and the influence of infections on the prognosis of HBV-ACLF were statistically analyzed. The risk factors for infections were assessed by unconditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 174 cases of HBV-ACLF that met the enrollment criteria, of which 114 (65.52%) were diagnosed with infectious complications. Infections occurred in the abdominal cavity (87 cases), respiratory tract (51 cases), urinary tract (18 cases), and biliary tract (10 cases). Patients with infectious complications had a significantly higher 28-d mortality (70.18%, 80/114) than those without (40.00%, 24/60) (70.18% vs 40.00%, P < 0.05). And patients with infectious complications had a much higher incidence of non-infectious complications (54.39%, 62/114) (54.39% vs 15.00%, P < 0.05), leading to an extremely high 28-d mortality of 88.71% (55/62) (P < 0.05). The grade of liver failure, period of hospital stay ≥ 30 d, age ≥ 45 years, and percentage of neutrophils > 70% were identified as risk factors for infectious complications.

CONCLUSION

The high incidence of infectious complications in patients with HBV-ACLF is associated with severity and deterioration of the disease and may contribute to the extremely high mortality of these patients.

Prophylactic antiviral treatment reduces the incidence of liver failure among patients coinfected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and hepatitis B virus

BACKGROUND

China has a high prevalence of tuberculosis and hepatitis B virus infection. The purpose of this study was to determine whether HBV coinfection increases the risk of incidence of drug-induced hepatotoxicity among patients on anti-tuberculosis therapy.

METHODS

This retrospective study was carried out at the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, from 2013 to 2017. All enrolled patients were confirmed HBsAg-positive for a duration of at least 6 months and coinfected with mycobacterium tuberculosis.

RESULTS

A cohort of 90 patients was analyzed. The incidence of liver damage and liver failure was 51.11% (n = 46) and 22.22% (n = 20), respectively. By multivariate analysis, initial albumin <35 g/l (P = 0.004, odds ratio 6.162, 95% confidence interval 1.767-21.486) was an independent risk factor for liver failure, but prophylactic antiviral treatment (P < 0.001, odds ratio 0.033, 95% confidence interval 0.007-0.154) was an independent protective factor for liver failure. Of the 90 patients, 20 developed liver failure, none of the patients with liver failure received prophylactic antiviral therapy, and 6 of those patients died of liver failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Prophylactic antiviral treatment reduces the incidence of liver failure in patients coinfected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and hepatitis B virus; therefore, it is recommended that prophylactic antiviral treatment be administered while receiving anti-tuberculosis treatment in patients coinfected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and hepatitis B virus.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific association for the study of the liver (APASL): an update

The first consensus report of the working party of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) set up in 2004 on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was published in 2009. With international groups volunteering to join, the "APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC)" was formed in 2012, which continued to collect prospective ACLF patient data. Based on the prospective data analysis of nearly 1400 patients, the AARC consensus was published in 2014. In the past nearly four-and-a-half years, the AARC database has been enriched to about 5200 cases by major hepatology centers across Asia. The data published during the interim period were carefully analyzed and areas of contention and new developments in the field of ACLF were prioritized in a systematic manner. The AARC database was also approached for answering some of the issues where published data were limited, such as liver failure grading, its impact on the 'Golden Therapeutic Window', extrahepatic organ dysfunction and failure, development of sepsis, distinctive features of acute decompensation from ACLF and pediatric ACLF and the issues were analyzed. These initiatives concluded in a two-day meeting in October 2018 at New Delhi with finalization of the new AARC consensus. Only those statements, which were based on evidence using the Grade System and were unanimously recommended, were accepted. Finalized statements were again circulated to all the experts and subsequently presented at the AARC investigators meeting at the AASLD in November 2018. The suggestions from the experts were used to revise and finalize the consensus. After detailed deliberations and data analysis, the original definition of ACLF was found to withstand the test of time and be able to identify a homogenous group of patients presenting with liver failure. New management options including the algorithms for the management of coagulation disorders, renal replacement therapy, sepsis, variceal bleed, antivirals and criteria for liver transplantation for ACLF patients were proposed. The final consensus statements along with the relevant background information and areas requiring future studies are presented here.

Pre-Operative Delta-MELD is an Independent Predictor of Higher Mortality following Liver Transplantation

Clinical decompensation immediately prior to liver transplantation may affect post-liver transplant (LT) outcomes. Using the serial Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores recorded in the United Network for Organ Sharing national registry (2010-2017), we analyzed post-LT mortality among adult LT recipients based on the degree of fluctuation in MELD score during the 30-day period prior to LT surgery. Delta-MELD (D-MELD) was defined as recipient MELD score at LT minus lowest MELD score within the preceding 30 days. Impact of D-MELD as a continuous and categorical variable (D-MELD 0-4, 5-10, >10) on early, 30-day post-LT mortality was assessed. Overall, a total of 12,785 LT recipients were analyzed, of which 8,862 (67.9%) had a pre-operative D-MELD 0-4; 2,574 (20.1%) with a D-MELD 5-10; and 1,529 (12.0%) with a D-MELD > 10. One-point incremental increase in pre-operative D-MELD (adjusted HR, 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10) was associated with higher 30-day post-LT mortality. Moreover, pre-operative D-MELD > 10 was associated with nearly a two-fold increased risk for 30-day post-LT mortality (adjusted HR, 1.89, 95% CI: 1.30-2.77) compared to D-MELD 0-4. The increased risk of pre-LT mortality associated with severity of clinical decompensation assessed by the magnitude of pre-operative D-MELD persists in the early post-LT period.

A Dynamic Model for Predicting Outcome in Patients with HBV Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Accurately predicting the prognosis of individual patient is crucial in the management of ACLF. We aimed to establish a specific prognostic model for HBV-related ACLF patients treated with nucleoside analog (NA).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively collected 205 ACLF cases diagnosed according to the APASL criteria. A dynamic prognostic model based on APASL criteria was established and validated. To demonstrate that the model is also applicable to those within EASL criteria, we divided the patients into two groups: met APASL criteria only (group A, n = 123); met both APASL and EASL criteria (group B, n = 82). Its prognostic accuracy was also compared with chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score in group B.

RESULTS

The model is: R = 0.94 x Bilirubin + 0.53 x evolution of Bilirubin - 0.45 x PT-A - 0.22 x evolution in PT-A -0.1 x PLT + 10 x anti-HBe. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the model for predicting 90-day mortality was 0.86, which was significantly higher than that of model for end stage liver disease(MELD), MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, ΔMELD (7d) and ΔMELD-Na (7d), ΔCLIF- SOFA(7d) (all p &lt; 0.01). The AUC of our model in the validation group was 0.79 which was superior to MELD (0.45) CLIF-SOFA (0.53) score in group B patients (p &lt; 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the model was superior to the conventional methods in predicting the outcomes of patients with HBV related ACLF treated with NA. It is the first description of a novel prognostic model using consecutive data in patients with HBV-induced acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) treated by nucleoside analogs.

Nomogram prediction of individual prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

BACKGROUND

The current definitions and etiologies of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are clearly very different between East and West.

AIMS

This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) as defined by the Asia Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL).

METHODS

The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 573 patients with ACHBLF, defined according to the APASL, at the Beijing Ditan Hospital. The results were validated using a bootstrapped approach to correct for bias in two external cohorts, including an APASL ACHBLF cohort (10 hospitals, N = 329) and an EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort (Renji Hospital, N = 300).

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort for survival analysis helped identify the independent factors as age, total bilirubin, albumin, international normalized ratio, and hepatic encephalopathy, which were included in the nomogram. The predictive value of nomogram was the strongest compared with CLIF-C ACLF, MELD and MELD-Na and similar to COSSH-ACLF in both the derivation and prospective validation cohorts with APASL ACHBLF, but the CLIF-C ACLF was better in the EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram could accurately estimate individualized risk for the short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF as defined by APASL.

The clinical parameters for the diagnosis of hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure with sepsis

It is still unknown that whether sepsis with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) fit into the conventional diagnostic criteria of sepsis. Our aim was to investigate the potential clinical parameters for the diagnosis of HBV-ACLF with sepsis. A retrospective study was conducted in 43 patients with HBV-ACLF and sepsis who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation. All patients were divided into three groups according to the pathological results and laboratory test results. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining, hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining and Gordon Sweet’s reticulin staining were performed in this study. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartale aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBiL), cholinesterase (CHE), albumin (ALB), prothrombin activity (PTA), blood routine examination were detected. The results being chosen at admission and before transplantation were analyzed. TBiL had a significant increase (563.5 ± 191.8 umol/L vs. 383.9 ± 157.6 umol/L, 438.3 ± 154.7 umol/L, P = 0.031) and ALT significantly decreased (81.6 ± 66.4 U/L, 754.5 ± 1084.7 U/L, 120.6 ± 102.5 U/L, P = 0.005) in sepsis group before liver transplantation. When sepsis appeared in patients with HBV-ACLF, the ratio of PLT to WBC count before liver transplantation was much lower than it at admission (4.6 ± 2.0 vs. 16.1 ± 7.2, P = 0.000). In conclusion, the clinical parameters of sepsis in patients with HBV-ACLF should be reset. The ratio of PLT/WBC and (WBC_BLT/WBC_AA)/ (PLT_BLT/PLT_AA) could remind us the occurring of sepsis in patients with HBV-ACLF.