Modeling climate change impacts on phenology and population dynamics of migratory marine species

Mediterranean fish communities are struggling to adapt to global warming. Evidence from the western coast of Italy

Climate change has significant impacts on marine ecosystems, resulting in disruptions in biological interactions, shifts in community composition, and changes in the physiology of fish and other marine organisms. In this study conducted in the central Mediterranean Sea, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) was employed as an indicator to investigate the climatological factors influencing the fish community. The MTC, which utilizes species-preferred temperatures, was calculated using bottom temperature (BT) data weighted against scientific catches. The estimated MTC increasing rates were 0.01 °C year-1 for the entire community, 0.017 °C year-1 for the shelf break, and 0.004 °C year-1 for the continental slope assemblage. We found that MTC is increasing at a lower rate compared to BT, suggesting a progressive under-adaptation of the fish community that seems not fully able to keep up with the ongoing pace of warming. The study identified sea surface temperature and bottom temperature as key drivers of changes in fish community composition. Notably, the fish community composition exhibited drastic changes over the studied period, and we suggest that the MTC can be a useful index to monitor such changes within the context of the EU's climate change adaptation strategy.

Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean

Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

Context drives movement patterns in a mobile marine predator

Intra-specific variability in movement behaviour occurs in all major taxonomic groups. Despite its common occurrence and ecological consequences, individual variability is often overlooked. As a result, there is a persistent gap in knowledge about drivers of intra-specific variability in movement and its role in fulfilling life history requirements. We apply a context-focused approach to bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas), a highly mobile marine predator, incorporating intra-specific variability to understand how variable movement patterns arise and how they might be altered under future change scenarios. Spatial analysis of sharks, acoustically tagged both at their distributional limit and the centre of distribution in southern Africa, was combined with spatial analysis of acoustically tagged teleost prey and remote-sensing of environmental variables. The objective was to test the hypothesis that varying resource availability and magnitude of seasonal environmental change in different locations interact to produce variable yet predictable movement behaviours across a species' distribution. Sharks from both locations showed high seasonal overlap with predictable prey aggregations. Patterns were variable in the centre of distribution, where residency, small- and large-scale movements were all recorded. In contrast, all animals from the distributional limit performed 'leap-frog migrations', making long-distance migrations bypassing conspecifics in the centre of distribution. By combining multiple variables related to life history requirements for animals in different environments we identified combinations of key drivers that explain the occurrence of differing movement behaviours across different contexts and delineated the effects of environmental factors and prey dynamics on predator movement. Comparisons with other taxa show striking similarities in patterns of intra-specific variability across terrestrial and marine species, suggesting common drivers.

Adaptive photoperiod interpretation modulates phenological timing in Atlantic salmon

Photoperiod, the portion of 24-h cycle during which an organism is exposed to illumination, is an important phenological cue in many animals. However, despite its influence on critical biological processes, there remain many unknowns regarding how variations in light intensity translate into perceived photoperiod. This experiment examined how light intensity variations affect perceived photoperiod in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to determine whether photoperiod interpretation is, a) fixed such that anything above a minimum detection threshold is regarded as 'illumination', or b) adaptive and varies with recent light exposure. To do this we compared the frequency of smoltification and sexual maturation between groups of male parr which were exposed to one of eight light regimes on a 12:12 cycling regime (12-hour day/12-hour night). The eight regimes were divided into two treatments, four with 'High' daytime light intensity and four with 'Low' daytime light intensity. The 'High' and 'Low' intensity treatments were each sub-divided into four groups for which the subjective 'night' light intensity was 100%, 10%, 1% and 0% of the daytime light intensity, with four replicate tanks of each treatment. The results show that above a minimum detection threshold, Atlantic salmon have adaptive photoperiod interpretation which varies with recent light exposure, and that adaptive photoperiod interpretation modulates the timing of the parr-smolt transformation and sexual maturation. Further, we show that photoperiod interpretation varies between closely related families. Given the influence of phenological timing on species survival, our results reveal a critical role for integration of photoperiod interpretation in attempts to understand how geographically shifting thermal niches due to climate change will affect future populations.

Genetic divergence at species boundaries of the dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) in the Tropical Eastern Pacific

Background

Marine species constitute commercially important resources, and knowledge about mechanisms that shape phylogeographic patterns and genetic structure provides valuable information for conservation. The dolphinfish, Coryphaena hippurus, is one of the most important species caught in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP). However, the lack of consensus about the existence of genetically differentiated populations in the area has hindered the adoption of management strategies to ensure its viability.

Methods

We assessed genetic variation and phylogeographic structure using two mitochondrial genes and 14 nuclear DNA microsatellite loci. Population genetic tools were used to characterize the spatial distribution of genetic variation of C. hippurus in the TEP, evaluate the extent of connectivity between dolphinfish populations, infer potential barriers to gene flow, and test for signals of contemporary and historical demographic expansions.

Results

Mitochondrial DNA sequences showed genetic homogeneity across locations in the TEP, as well as a strong signal of population expansion dated to the late Pleistocene. In contrast, nuclear microsatellite markers resolved four genetically distinct groups with a remarked genetic differentiation between the most distant locations, at the northern and southern boundaries of the species' range. High mean genetic diversity was found at all localities (Hs = 0.66-0.81). Notwithstanding, positive F _IS and low effective population size (Ne = 77.9-496.4) were also recorded.

Conclusions

The distribution of genetic variation could be related to expansion-contraction cycles following seasonal temperature changes at transitional areas, promoting population subdivisions. However, we cannot rule out the effect of oceanographic dynamics to the observed patterns. Although this marine species remains highly abundant despite commercial exploitation, the low Ne values are of conservation concern and must be considered in fishery management plans.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Climate-induced habitat suitability changes intensify fishing impacts on the life history of large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea)

Intense fishing pressure and climate change are major threats to the fish population and coastal fisheries. Larimichthys crocea (large yellow croaker) is a long-lived fish, which performs seasonal migrations from its spawning and nursery grounds along the coast of the East China Sea (ECS) to overwintering grounds offshore. This study used length-based analysis and habitat suitability index (HSI) model to evaluate the current life-history parameters and overwintering habitat suitability of L. crocea, respectively. We compared recent (2019) and historical (1971-1982) life-history parameters and overwintering HSI to analyze the fishing pressure and climate change effects on the overall population and overwintering phase of L. crocea. The length-based analysis indicated serious overfishing of L. crocea, characterized by reduced catch, size truncation, constrained distribution, and advanced maturation causing a recruitment bottleneck. The overwintering HSI modeling results indicated that climate change has led to decreased sea surface temperature during L. crocea overwintering phase over the last half-century, which in turn led to area decrease and an offshore-oriented shifting of optimal overwintering habitat of L. crocea. The fishing-caused size truncation may have constrained the migratory ability, and distribution of L. crocea subsequently led to the mismatch of the optimal overwintering habitat against climate change background, namely habitat bottleneck. Hence, while heavy fishing was the major cause of L. crocea collapse, climate-induced overwintering habitat suitability may have intensified the fishery collapse of L. crocea population. It is important for management to consider both overfishing and climate change issues when developing stock enhancement activities and policy regulations, particularly for migratory long-lived fish that share a similar life history to L. crocea. Combined with China's current restocking and stock enhancement initiatives, we propose recommendations for the future restocking of L. crocea in China.

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species, but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a 28-year-long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer versus 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current summer habitats will decline (mean loss: -25%), while some expansion into new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains versus losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.

Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.

Climate change impacts on seabirds and marine mammals: The importance of study duration, thermal tolerance and generation time

Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.

Memories of Migrations Past: Sociality and Cognition in Dynamic, Seasonal Environments

Seasonal migrations are a widespread and broadly successful strategy for animals to exploit periodic and localized resources over large spatial scales. It remains an open and largely case-specific question whether long-distance migrations are resilient to environmental disruptions. High levels of mobility suggest an ability to shift ranges that can confer resilience. On the other hand, a conservative, hard-wired commitment to a risky behavior can be costly if conditions change. Mechanisms that contribute to migration include identification and responsiveness to resources, sociality, and cognitive processes such as spatial memory and learning. Our goal was to explore the extent to which these factors interact not only to maintain a migratory behavior but also to provide resilience against environmental changes. We develop a diffusion-advection model of animal movement in which an endogenous migratory behavior is modified by recent experiences via a memory process, and animals have a social swarming-like behavior over a range of spatial scales. We found that this relatively simple framework was able to adapt to a stable, seasonal resource dynamic under a broad range of parameter values. Furthermore, the model was able to acquire an adaptive migration behavior with time. However, the resilience of the process depended on all the parameters under consideration, with many complex trade-offs. For example, the spatial scale of sociality needed to be large enough to capture changes in the resource, but not so large that the acquired collective information was overly diluted. A long-term reference memory was important for hedging against a highly stochastic process, but a higher weighting of more recent memory was needed for adapting to directional changes in resource phenology. Our model provides a general and versatile framework for exploring the interaction of memory, movement, social and resource dynamics, even as environmental conditions globally are undergoing rapid change.

Spatial and temporal analysis of cumulative environmental effects of offshore wind farms in the North Sea basin

The North Sea basin is one of the busiest maritime areas globally with a considerable number of anthropogenic pressures impacting the functioning of the marine ecosystem. Due to growing EU ambitions for the deployment of large offshore wind farm projects (OWF), as part of the 2050 renewable energy roadmap, there is a key need for a holistic understanding of OWF potential impacts on the marine ecosystem. We propose a holistic Cumulative Effect Assessment methodology, applied using a geo-spatial open-source software, to assess impacts of OWF related pressures on selected seabed habitats, fish, seabird and mammal species. We take into account pressures specific to the three OWF development phases, spanning 1999-2050, for the entire North Sea basin. Our results underline 2022 as the peak year of cumulative impacts for the approved OWFs, followed by a considerable increase in potential impacts of the planned 212GWs, by 2050. The spatio-temporal analysis of the OWF environmental impacts presents the shift between highly impacted areas over the studied timeline and distinguishes between concentrated areas of high impacts (S-E of UK) and dispersed areas of high impacts (Germany). Our results can inform decision-makers and the OWF industry in a joint effort to mitigate the environmental impacts of future large OWF developments.

Age and growth of grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus from trans-Atlantic populations

Anthropogenic factors that negatively impact reef fishes can include changes in life-history patterns of fisheries-targeted species. Understanding these impacts on growth and population age structure is essential in the management of exploited populations of fishes. This is the first study to directly compare age and growth for a major fisheries species between east and west populations of a transatlantic reef fish. The main goal of this study was to document age and growth in grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus from coastal waters of Ghana in the Gulf of Guinea (GOG) and compare those with the previous growth studies from that region and with the western Atlantic population. A secondary objective of this study was to evaluate the use of otoliths to age triggerfish and to provide a preliminary comparison with spine-derived age estimates. The results obtained from this study provided an updated understanding of the growth and age structure of the eastern B. capriscus population in GOG. The authors documented that shifts in population attributes occurred for B. capriscus after its major decline in abundance. The differences in physical and biotic characteristics of the East and West Atlantic regions and the differences in collection methods of samples make direct comparisons of growth parameters difficult. Nonetheless, overall differences in maximum sizes and ages were apparent; the western Atlantic population had a larger maximum size and older maximum age. The authors also documented that sagittal otoliths can be used to provide age estimates for triggerfish species, and otoliths as an ageing structure had better between-reader precision compared to dorsal spines.

An innovative bivariate approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions: Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish

Most key life-events of organisms are synchronized by complex interactions of several environmental cues to ensure optimal survival and growth of individuals and their offspring. However, global change is known to affect multiple components of ecosystems and cues at the same time. Therefore, detecting joint trends in covariate time series is a crucial challenge in global change ecology that has rarely been addressed so far. In this context, we designed an innovative combination of kernel density estimations and Mann-Kendall trend tests to detect joint temporal trends in a pair of environmental variables. This methodological framework was tested on >30 years (1976-2019) of water temperature and discharge data for 6 large French rivers (the Garonne, Dordogne, Rhône, Rhine, Loire and Vienne rivers). The implications of such trends in both temperature and discharge for diadromous species key life-cycle processes were then explored by checking if significant bivariate environmental changes occurred during seasons of upstream and downstream migration, and reproductive activities. Results were contrasted between rivers and seasons: many rivers displayed an increase in the number of days with high water temperature and low river discharge, but local discharge regulation measures could have mitigated the trend in discharge. Our findings showed that species migrating or spawning in spring were likely to be strongly impacted by the new environmental conditions in the Garonne, Loire and Rhône rivers, given the marked changes in water temperature and discharge associations detected by our new method. Conditions experienced by fall-running and spawning species have been strongly affected in all the rivers studied. This innovative methodology was implemented in a new R package, ChocR, for application to other environments and ecosystems.

Short-term captivity does not affect immediate voluntary thermal maximum of a neotropical pitviper: Implications for behavioral thermoregulation

Ectotherms depend on temperature to maintain their physiological functions and through behavioral changes, they can avoid overheating in their habitats. The voluntary thermal maximum (VT_Max ) represents the maximum temperature tolerated by individuals before actively moving to a colder place. However, if and how VT_Max might change after capture and in captivity remains understudied. We investigate if measurements taken in captivity are a good proxy for thermal tolerance of wild individuals. As thermal history has been shown to affect behavioral response and physiological parameters, herein we hypothesized that VT_Max of the neotropical viper Bothrops pauloensis varies throughout the captivity period. We measured the VT_Max of individuals immediately after capture and in three trials during a short-term period in captivity. Measurements were done by recording their body temperature at which they exited a heating box experimental setup. In contrast to our hypothesis, the VT_Max was not significantly affected by time in captivity but there was interindividual variation. There were also no significant differences between field and captivity measurements, in spite of the small effect size. Our results indicate that the VT_Max of this snake population is not affected by a short-term captivity period. Furthermore, an invariant VT_Max might indicate low phenotypic plasticity, as individuals do not appear to adjust their tolerance to short-term exposure to higher temperatures and potential vulnerability to threats such as global warming. We expect that our results can contribute to understanding the effect of captivity on thermal tolerance in neotropical squamates, allowing for insights into their thermal physiology and ecology.

Degrees of change: between and within population variation in thermal reaction norms of phenology in a viviparous lizard

As the earth warms, populations will be faced with novel environments to which they may not be adapted. In the short term, populations can be buffered against the negative effects, or maximize the beneficial effects, of such environmental change via phenotypic plasticity and, in the longer term, via adaptive evolution. However, the extent and direction of these population-level responses will be dependent on the degree to which responses vary among the individuals within them (i.e., within population variation in plasticity), which is, itself, likely to vary among populations. Despite this, we have estimates of among-individual variation in plastic responses across multiple populations for only a few systems. This lack of data limits our ability to predict the consequences of environmental change for population and species persistence accurately. Here, we utilized a 16-yr data set from climatically distinct populations of the viviparous skink Niveoscincus ocellatus tracking over 1,200 litters from more than 600 females from each population to examine inter- and intrapopulation variability in the response of parturition date to environmental temperature. We found that these populations share a common population-mean reaction norm but differ in the degree to which reaction norms vary among individuals. These results suggest that even where populations share a common mean-level response, we cannot assume that they will be affected similarly by altered environmental conditions. If we are to assess how changing climates will impact species and populations accurately, we require estimates of how plastic responses vary both among and within populations.

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

An optimal stopping approach for onset of fish migration

Comprehending life history of migratory fish, onset of migration in particular, is a key biological and ecological research topic that still has not been clarified. In this paper, we propose a simple mathematical model for the onset of fish migration in the context of a stochastic optimal stopping theory, which is a new attempt to our knowledge. Finding the criteria of the onset of migration reduces to solving a variational inequality of a degenerate elliptic type. As a first step of the new mathematical modeling, mathematical and numerical analyses with particular emphasis on whether the model is consistent with the past observation results of fish migration are examined, demonstrating reasonable agreement between the theory and observation results. The present mathematical model thus potentially serves as a simple basis for analyzing onset of fish migration.

Memory, not just perception, plays an important role in terrestrial mammalian migration

One of the key questions regarding the underlying mechanisms of mammalian land migrations is how animals select where to go. Most studies assume perception of resources as the navigational mechanism. The possible role of memory that would allow forecasting conditions at distant locations and times based on information about environmental conditions from previous years has been little studied. We study migrating zebra in Botswana using an individual-based simulation model, where perceptually guided individuals use currently sensed resources at different perceptual ranges, while memory-guided individuals use long-term averages of past resources to forecast future conditions. We compare simulated individuals guided by perception or memory on resource landscapes of remotely sensed vegetation data to trajectories of GPS-tagged zebras. Our results show that memory provides a clear signal that best directs migrants to their destination compared to perception at even the largest perceptual ranges. Zebras modelled with memory arrived two to four times, or up to 100 km, closer to the migration destination than those using perception. We suggest that memory in addition to perception is important for directing ungulate migration. Furthermore, our findings are important for the conservation of migratory mammals, as memory informing direction suggests migration routes could be relatively inflexible.

Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems

The world's oceans are highly impacted by climate change and other human pressures, with significant implications for marine ecosystems and the livelihoods that they support. Adaptation for both natural and human systems is increasingly important as a coping strategy due to the rate and scale of ongoing and potential future change. Here, we conduct a review of literature concerning specific case studies of adaptation in marine systems, and discuss associated characteristics and influencing factors, including drivers, strategy, timeline, costs, and limitations. We found ample evidence in the literature that shows that marine species are adapting to climate change through shifting distributions and timing of biological events, while evidence for adaptation through evolutionary processes is limited. For human systems, existing studies focus on frameworks and principles of adaptation planning, but examples of implemented adaptation actions and evaluation of outcomes are scarce. These findings highlight potentially useful strategies given specific social-ecological contexts, as well as key barriers and specific information gaps requiring further research and actions.

Process-Based Models of Phenology for Plants and Animals

Phenology is a key aspect of plant and animal life strategies that determines the ability to capture seasonally variable resources. It defines the season and duration of growth and reproduction and paces ecological interactions and ecosystem functions. Phenology models have become a key component of models in agronomy, forestry, ecology, and biogeosciences. Plant and animal process-based phenology models have taken different paths that have so far not crossed. Yet, they share many features because plant and animal annual cycles also share many characteristics, from their stepwise progression, including a resting period, to their dependence on similar environmental factors. We review the strengths and shortcomings of these models and the divergences in modeling approaches for plants and animals, which are mostly due to specificities of the questions they tackle. Finally, we discuss the most promising avenues and the challenges phenology modeling needs to address in the upcoming years.

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.

Spring phenology of cotton bollworm affects wheat yield

Climate change has changed numerous species phenologies. Understanding the asynchronous responses between pest insects and host plants to climate change is helpful in improving integrated pest management. It is necessary to use long-term data to analyze the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis. Data for cotton bollworm, wheat yield, and wheat anthesis collected since 1990 were analyzed using linear regression and partial least-squares regression, as well as the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that warmer temperatures in the spring advanced the phenologies of cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis, but the phenology changes in overwintering cotton bollworm were faster than those in wheat anthesis, and the eclosion period of overwintering was prolonged, resulting in an increase in overwintering adult abundance. This might lead to more first-generation larvae and subsequent wheat damage. An early or late first-appearance date significantly affected the eclosion days. The abrupt changes of phenologies in cotton bollworm, wheat anthesis, and climate were asynchronous, but the abrupt phenology changes occurred after or around the climate abrupt change, especially after or around the abrupt changes of temperature in March and April. The expansion of asynchronous responses in the change rate of wheat anthesis and overwintering cotton bollworm would likely decrease wheat yield due to climate warming in the future. Accumulated temperature was the major affecting factor on the first eclosion date (t1), adult abundance, and eclosion days. Temperatures in March and April and precipitation in the winter mainly affected the prepeak date (t2), peak date (t3), and postpeak date (t4), respectively, and these factors indirectly affected wheat yield. Thus, the change in the spring phenology of the cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis, and hence wheat yield, was affected by climate warming.

Climate, Anchovy, and Sardine

Anchovy and sardine populated productive ocean regions over hundreds of thousands of years under a naturally varying climate, and are now subject to climate change of equal or greater magnitude occurring over decades to centuries. We hypothesize that anchovy and sardine populations are limited in size by the supply of nitrogen from outside their habitats originating from upwelling, mixing, and rivers. Projections of the responses of anchovy and sardine to climate change rely on a range of model types and consideration of the effects of climate on lower trophic levels, the effects of fishing on higher trophic levels, and the traits of these two types of fish. Distribution, phenology, nutrient supply, plankton composition and production, habitat compression, fishing, and acclimation and adaptation may be affected by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and altered hydrology. Observations of populations and evaluation of model skill are essential to resolve the effects of climate change on these fish.

Dynamic habitat suitability modelling reveals rapid poleward distribution shift in a mobile apex predator

Many taxa are undergoing distribution shifts in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, detecting a climate signal in mobile species is difficult due to their wide-ranging, patchy distributions, often driven by natural climate variability. For example, difficulties associated with assessing pelagic fish distributions have rendered fisheries management ill-equipped to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, leaving pelagic species and ecosystems vulnerable. Here, we demonstrate the value of citizen science data for modelling the dynamic habitat suitability of a mobile pelagic predator (black marlin, Istiompax indica) within the south-west Pacific Ocean. The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of our occurrence data set (n = 18 717), collected at high resolution (~1.85 km(2) ), enabled identification of suitable habitat at monthly time steps over a 16-year period (1998-2013). We identified considerable monthly, seasonal and interannual variability in the extent and distribution of suitable habitat, predominately driven by chlorophyll a and sea surface height. Interannual variability correlated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with suitable habitat extending up to ~300 km further south during La Nina events. Despite the strong influence of ENSO, our model revealed a rapid poleward shift in the geometric mean of black marlin habitat, occurring at 88.2 km decade(-1) . By incorporating multiple environmental factors at monthly time steps, we were able to demonstrate a rapid distribution shift in a mobile pelagic species. Our findings suggest that the rapid velocity of climate change in the south-west Pacific Ocean is likely affecting mobile pelagic species, indicating that they may be more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.

The seesaw effect of winter temperature change on the recruitment of cotton bollworms Helicoverpa armigera through mismatched phenology

Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the "seesaw effect." Using a long-term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid- and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long-term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates from fluctuating minimum winter temperatures.

Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem

Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.

Photoperiod control of downstream movements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts

This study provides the first direct observations that photoperiod controls the initiation of downstream movement in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts. Under simulated natural day length (LDN) conditions and seasonal increases in temperature, smolts increased their downstream movements five-fold for a period of 1 month in late spring. Under the same conditions, parr did not show changes in downstream movement behaviour. When given a shortened day length (10L:14D) beginning in late winter, smolts did not increase the number of downstream movements. An early increase in day length (16L:8D) in late winter resulted in earlier initiation and termination of downstream movements compared to the LDN group. Physiological status and behaviour were related but not completely coincident: gill Na(+) /K(+) -ATPase activity increased in all treatments and thyroid hormone was elevated prior to movement in 16L:8D treatment. The most parsimonious model describing downstream movement of smolts included synergistic effects of photoperiod treatment and temperature, indicating that peak movements occurred at colder temperatures in the 16L:8D treatment than in LDN, and temperature did not influence movement of smolts in the 10L:14D treatment. The complicated interactions of photoperiod and temperature are not surprising since many organisms have evolved to rely on correlations among environmental cues and windows of opportunity to time behaviours associated with life-history transitions. These complicated interactions, however, have serious implications for phenological adjustments and persistence of S. salar populations in response to climate change.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater ('parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water ('smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.