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Souto-Veiga R, Groeneveld J, Enright NJ, Fontaine JB, Jeltsch F. Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source-sink dynamics in a fire-killed, serotinous shrub. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11488. [PMID: 38835526 PMCID: PMC11148395 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Revised: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 05/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub Banksia hookeriana dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire-prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process-based, spatially implicit population model for the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species B. hookeriana to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988-2002) and current (2003-2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatio-temporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of B. hookeriana. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter-fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long-term persistence (defined as >400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, that is, improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥7) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source-sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio-temporal fire regime for B. hookeriana, and likely as well for many other fire-killed species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rodrigo Souto-Veiga
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany
- School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences Murdoch University Murdoch Western Australia Australia
- Institute of Plant Science and Microbiology, Ecological Modeling Universität Hamburg Hamburg Germany
| | - Juergen Groeneveld
- Department of Ecological Modelling Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ Leipzig Germany
| | - Neal J Enright
- School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences Murdoch University Murdoch Western Australia Australia
| | - Joseph B Fontaine
- School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences Murdoch University Murdoch Western Australia Australia
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB) Berlin Germany
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Elvira NJ, Lloret F, Jaime L, Margalef-Marrase J, Pérez Navarro MÁ, Batllori E. Species climatic niche explains post-fire regeneration of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) under compounded effects of fire and drought in east Spain. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 798:149308. [PMID: 34375257 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2021] [Revised: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Fire and drought are two major agents that shape Mediterranean ecosystems, but their interacting effects on forest resilience have not been yet fully addressed. We used Pinus halepensis to investigate how compound fire-drought regimes determine the success of post-fire regeneration. We measured the density of P.halepensis newly established individuals following fire in forty-three sites along the Spanish east coast, the wetter region of the species distribution. The climatic niche of P.halepensis was characterized by considering their populations across its Spanish distribution range. We used yearly values (1979-2013 period) of accumulated precipitation, mean temperature and the warmest quarter values of these two variables to generate the climatic space or climatic niche occupied by the species. Kernel density estimates were then applied to determine the niche centroid, which would correspond to the species' climatic optimum within its Spanish distribution range. Then, we computed the pre- and post-fire climatic deviations of each sampling site as the difference between site-specific climate conditions respect to the species niche centroid, and assessed their relationship with the success of post-fire regeneration. We found highly variable patterns of post-fire regeneration density of P.halepensis over the studied sites, ranging from 7 to 42,822 tree pines ha-1. Generalized linear models indicated a positive relationship between fire severity and the density of P.halepensis regeneration. Positive temperature deviations - warm conditions - before fire were positively related to pine regeneration. This effect increases under higher fire severity. By contrast, warm temperatures after fire showed a negative effect on the density of pine trees. Positive precipitation deviations - wet conditions - after fire enhanced pine regeneration, while precipitation before fire did not had any significant effect. Though P.halepensis is considered a species adapted to fire and drought, the interaction between these two disturbances can alter the success of its post-fire recovery patterns limiting the species' resilience in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nuria J Elvira
- Centre de Reserca Ecologica i aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Spain.
| | - Francisco Lloret
- Centre de Reserca Ecologica i aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Spain; U. Ecology, Dept. Biologia Animal, Biologia Vegetal i Ecologia, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, Spain
| | - Luciana Jaime
- Centre de Reserca Ecologica i aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Spain
| | | | | | - Enric Batllori
- Centre de Reserca Ecologica i aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Spain; Dept. Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat Barcelona, Spain
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Nolan RH, Collins L, Leigh A, Ooi MKJ, Curran TJ, Fairman TA, Resco de Dios V, Bradstock R. Limits to post-fire vegetation recovery under climate change. PLANT, CELL & ENVIRONMENT 2021; 44:3471-3489. [PMID: 34453442 DOI: 10.1111/pce.14176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2020] [Revised: 08/09/2021] [Accepted: 08/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Record-breaking fire seasons in many regions across the globe raise important questions about plant community responses to shifting fire regimes (i.e., changing fire frequency, severity and seasonality). Here, we examine the impacts of climate-driven shifts in fire regimes on vegetation communities, and likely responses to fire coinciding with severe drought, heatwaves and/or insect outbreaks. We present scenario-based conceptual models on how overlapping disturbance events and shifting fire regimes interact differently to limit post-fire resprouting and recruitment capacity. We demonstrate that, although many communities will remain resilient to changing fire regimes in the short-term, longer-term changes to vegetation structure, demography and species composition are likely, with a range of subsequent effects on ecosystem function. Resprouting species are likely to be most resilient to changing fire regimes. However, even these species are susceptible if exposed to repeated short-interval fire in combination with other stressors. Post-fire recruitment is highly vulnerable to increased fire frequency, particularly as climatic limitations on propagule availability intensify. Prediction of community responses to fire under climate change will be greatly improved by addressing knowledge gaps on how overlapping disturbances and climate change-induced shifts in fire regime affect post-fire resprouting, recruitment, growth rates, and species-level adaptation capacity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachael H Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Luke Collins
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Ecology, Environment & Evolution, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Canada
| | - Andy Leigh
- School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Broadway, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark K J Ooi
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Timothy J Curran
- Department of Pest-management and Conservation, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand
| | - Thomas A Fairman
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Víctor Resco de Dios
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China
- Joint Research Unit CTFC-AGROTECNIO, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain
- Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain
| | - Ross Bradstock
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
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Kelly LT, Giljohann KM, Duane A, Aquilué N, Archibald S, Batllori E, Bennett AF, Buckland ST, Canelles Q, Clarke MF, Fortin MJ, Hermoso V, Herrando S, Keane RE, Lake FK, McCarthy MA, Morán-Ordóñez A, Parr CL, Pausas JG, Penman TD, Regos A, Rumpff L, Santos JL, Smith AL, Syphard AD, Tingley MW, Brotons L. Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Science 2021; 370:370/6519/eabb0355. [PMID: 33214246 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb0355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2020] [Accepted: 09/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth's biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke T Kelly
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
| | | | - Andrea Duane
- InForest JRU (CTFC-CREAF), 25280 Solsona, Lleida, Spain
| | - Núria Aquilué
- InForest JRU (CTFC-CREAF), 25280 Solsona, Lleida, Spain.,Centre d'Étude de la Forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3P8, Canada
| | - Sally Archibald
- Centre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Natural Resources and the Environment, CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Enric Batllori
- CREAF, Edifici C. Autonomous, University of Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.,Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology, and Environmental Sciences, University of Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Andrew F Bennett
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, Centre for Future Landscapes, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Australia
| | - Stephen T Buckland
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9LZ, UK
| | - Quim Canelles
- InForest JRU (CTFC-CREAF), 25280 Solsona, Lleida, Spain
| | - Michael F Clarke
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, Centre for Future Landscapes, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Australia
| | - Marie-Josée Fortin
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3B2, Canada
| | | | - Sergi Herrando
- Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona, 08019 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Robert E Keane
- U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, Missoula, MT 59808, USA
| | - Frank K Lake
- U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station, Albany, CA 94710, USA
| | - Michael A McCarthy
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | | | - Catherine L Parr
- Centre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Department of Earth, Ocean & Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.,Department of Zoology & Entomology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Juli G Pausas
- Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación (CIDE-CSIC), 46113 Montcada, Valencia, Spain
| | - Trent D Penman
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Adrián Regos
- Departamento de Zooloxía, Xenética e Antropoloxía Fisica, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.,CIBIO/InBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, ECOCHANGE Group, Vairão, Portugal
| | - Libby Rumpff
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Julianna L Santos
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Annabel L Smith
- School of Agriculture and Food Science, University of Queensland, Gatton 4343, Australia.,Zoology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
| | - Alexandra D Syphard
- Vertus Wildfire, San Francisco, CA 94108, USA.,San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA.,Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR 97333, USA
| | - Morgan W Tingley
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Lluís Brotons
- InForest JRU (CTFC-CREAF), 25280 Solsona, Lleida, Spain.,CREAF, Edifici C. Autonomous, University of Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.,Spanish Research Council (CSIC), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
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Menezes‐Silva PE, Loram‐Lourenço L, Alves RDFB, Sousa LF, Almeida SEDS, Farnese FS. Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:11979-11999. [PMID: 31695903 PMCID: PMC6822037 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2018] [Revised: 08/22/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2019] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho-anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lucas Loram‐Lourenço
- Laboratory of Plant EcophysiologyInstituto Federal Goiano – Campus Rio VerdeGoiásBrazil
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