1
|
Lo YTE, Mitchell DM, Gasparrini A. Compound mortality impacts from extreme temperatures and the COVID-19 pandemic. Nat Commun 2024; 15:4289. [PMID: 38782899 PMCID: PMC11116452 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48207-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Extreme weather and coronavirus-type pandemics are both leading global health concerns. Until now, no study has quantified the compound health consequences of the co-occurrence of them. We estimate the mortality attributable to extreme heat and cold events, which dominate the UK health burden from weather hazards, in England and Wales in the period 2020-2022, during which the COVID-19 pandemic peaked in terms of mortality. We show that temperature-related mortality exceeded COVID-19 mortality by 8% in South West England. Combined, extreme temperatures and COVID-19 led to 19 (95% confidence interval: 16-22 in North West England) to 24 (95% confidence interval: 20-29 in Wales) excess deaths per 100,000 population during heatwaves, and 80 (95% confidence interval: 75-86 in Yorkshire and the Humber) to 127 (95% confidence interval: 123-132 in East of England) excess deaths per 100,000 population during cold snaps. These numbers are at least ~2 times higher than the previous decade. Society must increase preparedness for compound health crises such as extreme weather coinciding with pandemics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Y T Eunice Lo
- Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
- Elizabeth Blackwell Institute for Health Research, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
| | - Dann M Mitchell
- Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Zeng P, Shi D, Helbich M, Sun F, Zhao H, Liu Y, Che Y. Gender disparities in summer outdoor heat risk across China: Findings from a national county-level assessment during 1991-2020. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 921:171120. [PMID: 38382599 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2023] [Revised: 01/21/2024] [Accepted: 02/18/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
Increasing anthropogenic global warming has emerged as a significant challenge to human health in China, as extreme heat hazards increasingly threaten outdoor-exposed populations. Differences in thermal comfort, outdoor activity duration, and social vulnerability between females and males may exacerbate gender inequalities in heat-related health risks, which have been overlooked by previous studies. Here, we combine three heat hazards and outdoor activity duration to identify the spatiotemporal variation in gender-specific heat risk in China during 1991-2020. We found that females' heat risk tends to be higher than that of males. Gender disparities in heat risk decrease in southern regions, while those in northern regions remain severe. Males are prone to overheating in highly urbanized areas, while females in low urbanized areas. Males' overheating risk is mainly attributed to population clustering associated with prolonged outdoor activity time and skewed social resource allocation. In contrast, females' overheating risk is primarily affected by social inequalities. Our findings suggest that China needs to further diminish gender disparities and accelerate climate adaptation planning.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Peng Zeng
- School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Institute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China; Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht CS 3584, the Netherlands
| | - Dachuan Shi
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
| | - Marco Helbich
- Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht CS 3584, the Netherlands
| | - Fengyun Sun
- School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
| | - Hongyu Zhao
- School of Architecture and Planning, Jilin Jianzhu University, No.5088, Xincheng Road, Nanguan District, Changchun 130118, China
| | - Yaoyi Liu
- School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Institute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
| | - Yue Che
- School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Institute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Bunker A, Compoaré G, Sewe MO, Laurent JGC, Zabré P, Boudo V, Ouédraogo WA, Ouermi L, Jackson ST, Arisco N, Vijayakumar G, Yildirim FB, Barteit S, Maggioni MA, Woodward A, Buonocore JJ, Regassa MD, Brück T, Sié A, Bärnighausen T. The effects of cool roofs on health, environmental, and economic outcomes in rural Africa: study protocol for a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial. Trials 2024; 25:59. [PMID: 38229177 PMCID: PMC10792891 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-023-07804-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND High ambient air temperatures in Africa pose significant health and behavioral challenges in populations with limited access to cooling adaptations. The built environment can exacerbate heat exposure, making passive home cooling adaptations a potential method for protecting occupants against indoor heat exposure. METHODS We are conducting a 2-year community-based stratified cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) implementing sunlight-reflecting roof coatings, known as "cool roofs," as a climate change adaptation intervention for passive indoor home cooling. Our primary research objective is to investigate the effects of cool roofs on health, indoor climate, economic, and behavioral outcomes in rural Burkina Faso. This cRCT is nested in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), a population-based dynamic cohort study of all people living in a geographically contiguous area covering 59 villages, 14305 households and 28610 individuals. We recruited 1200 participants, one woman and one man, each in 600 households in 25 villages in the Nouna HDSS. We stratified our sample by (i) village and (ii) two prevalent roof types in this area of Burkina Faso: mud brick and tin. We randomized the same number of people (12) and homes (6) in each stratum 1:1 to receiving vs. not receiving the cool roof. We are collecting outcome data on one primary endpoint - heart rate, (a measure of heat stress) and 22 secondary outcomes encompassing indoor climate parameters, blood pressure, body temperature, heat-related outcomes, blood glucose, sleep, cognition, mental health, health facility utilization, economic and productivity outcomes, mosquito count, life satisfaction, gender-based violence, and food consumption. We followed all participants for 2 years, conducting monthly home visits to collect objective and subjective outcomes. Approximately 12% of participants (n = 152) used smartwatches to continuously measure endpoints including heart rate, sleep and activity. DISCUSSION Our study demonstrates the potential of large-scale cRCTs to evaluate novel climate change adaptation interventions and provide evidence supporting investments in heat resilience in sub-Saharan Africa. By conducting this research, we will contribute to better policies and interventions to help climate-vulnerable populations ward off the detrimental effects of extreme indoor heat on health. TRIAL REGISTRATION German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) DRKS00023207. Registered on April 19, 2021.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Aditi Bunker
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
| | | | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewe
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health Section, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jose Guillermo Cedeno Laurent
- Environmental Health and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, School of Public Health, Rutgers University, Rutgers, USA
| | - Pascal Zabré
- Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (CRSN), Nouna, Burkina Faso
| | - Valentin Boudo
- Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (CRSN), Nouna, Burkina Faso
| | | | - Lucienne Ouermi
- Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (CRSN), Nouna, Burkina Faso
| | - Susan T Jackson
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Nicholas Arisco
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | - Govind Vijayakumar
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Ferhat Baran Yildirim
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Sandra Barteit
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Martina Anna Maggioni
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Institute of Physiology, Center for Space Medicine and Extreme Environments, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Biomedical Sciences for Health, Università Degli Studi Di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - Alistair Woodward
- Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan J Buonocore
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | | | - Tilman Brück
- Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops (IGZ), Großbeeren, Germany
- Thaer-Institute, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- International Security and Development Center (ISDC), Berlin, Germany
| | - Ali Sié
- Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (CRSN), Nouna, Burkina Faso
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Kiarsi M, Amiresmaili M, Mahmoodi MR, Farahmandnia H, Nakhaee N, Zareiyan A, Aghababaeian H. Heat waves and adaptation: A global systematic review. J Therm Biol 2023; 116:103588. [PMID: 37499408 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2021] [Revised: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Given the increasing trend of global warming and extreme weather conditions, including heat waves and its effects on health, the present study was done to investigate adaptive behaviors of communities in the world for combating heat waves. METHOD ology: In this systematic review, out of 1529 results, 57 relevant and authoritative English papers on adaptation to heat waves hazard were extracted and evaluated using valid keywords from valid databases (PubMed, WOS, EMBASE, and Scopus). In addition, multiple screening steps were done and then, the selected papers were qualitatively assessed. Evaluation results were summarized using an Extraction Table. RESULTS In this paper, the adaptive behaviors for combating heat waves hazard were summarized into 11 categories: Education and awareness raising, Adaptation of critical infrastructure, Governments measures, Health-related measures, Application of early warning system, Protective behaviors in workplace, Physical condition, Adaptive individual behaviors, Design and architecture of the building, Green infrastructure (green cover), and Urban design. CONCLUSION The findings of this study showed that community actions have significant effects on adaptation to heat wave. Therefore, for reducing heat wave-related negative health effects and vulnerability, more attention should be paid to the above-mentioned actions for mitigation, preparation, and responding regarding heat waves. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42021257747.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maryam Kiarsi
- Department of Medical Emergencies, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran; Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran.
| | - Mohammadreza Amiresmaili
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Mohammad Reza Mahmoodi
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Physiology Research Center, Institute of Neuropharmacology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Hojjat Farahmandnia
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Nouzar Nakhaee
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Health Services Management Research Center, Institute of Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Armin Zareiyan
- Public Health Department, Health in Emergencies and Disasters Department, Nursing Faculty, AJA University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Department of Medical Emergencies, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran; Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran.
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Kiarsi M, Amiresmaili M, Mahmoodi M, Farahmandnia H, Nakhaee N, Zareiyan A, Aghababaeian H. Heat wave adaptation paradigm and adaptation strategies of community: A qualitative phenomenological study in Iran. JOURNAL OF EDUCATION AND HEALTH PROMOTION 2022; 11:408. [PMID: 36824085 PMCID: PMC9942165 DOI: 10.4103/jehp.jehp_440_22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2022] [Accepted: 04/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat wave adaptation is a new concept related to experiencing heat. The present study aims at investigating a conceptual definition, that is, the mental framework of heat wave adaptation and its strategies. MATERIALS AND METHODS A phenomenological study was performed to explain the mental concept. At the same time with the data collection process, data analysis was also performed using Colaizzi method. Semi-structured interview method and purposeful sampling with maximum variety were used. Interviews were conducted with 23 different subjects in the community. The accuracy of the data was guaranteed using Lincoln & Guba scientific accuracy criteria. RESULTS The two main themes of the adaptation paradigm as well as its strategies were divided into the main categories of theoretical and operational concepts, as well as personal care measures and government measures. Under the category of individual measures, we obtained "clothing, nutrition, building, place of residence and lifestyle," and under the category of governance actions, the "managerial, research, health, organizational" subcategories were obtained. CONCLUSION According to the results of the conceptual-operational definition, heat wave adaptation is an active process and an effort to reduce the adverse effects of heat waves on individual and social life, and striking a balance that will not only result in individual awareness and actions that will lead to lifestyle changes, but also mostly requires integrated and comprehensive planning in the community. On the one hand, heat waves could not only be regarded as a threat or danger, but can also become an opportunity for the development of a community through identification and smart measures, and for adaptation, the community must take it as a risk. The community should have a plan in advance, apply the necessary rules and training, and use the new facilities and rules where necessary. This practical concept definition includes the main features of heat wave adaptation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maryam Kiarsi
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Amiresmaili
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Mahmoodi
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
- Physiology Research Center, Institute of Neuropharmacology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
- Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Hojjat Farahmandnia
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Nouzar Nakhaee
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Health Services Management Research Center, Institute of Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Iran
| | - Armin Zareiyan
- Public Health Department, Health in Emergencies and Disasters Department, Nursing Faculty, AJA University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Aldridge RW, Pineo H, Fragaszy E, Eyre MT, Kovar J, Nguyen V, Beale S, Byrne T, Aryee A, Smith C, Devakumar D, Taylor J, Katikireddi SV, Fong WLE, Geismar C, Patel P, Shrotri M, Braithwaite I, Patni N, Navaratnam AM, Johnson AM, Hayward A. Household overcrowding and risk of SARS-CoV-2: analysis of the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study in England and Wales. Wellcome Open Res 2021; 6:347. [PMID: 38807847 PMCID: PMC11130583 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17308.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Background: Household overcrowding is associated with increased risk of infectious diseases across contexts and countries. Limited data exist linking household overcrowding and risk of COVID-19. We used data collected from the Virus Watch cohort to examine the association between overcrowded households and SARS-CoV-2. Methods: The Virus Watch study is a household community cohort of acute respiratory infections in England and Wales. We calculated overcrowding using the measure of persons per room for each household. We considered two primary outcomes: PCR-confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests and laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models that accounted for household structure to estimate the association between household overcrowding and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results:26,367 participants were included in our analyses. The proportion of participants with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result was highest in the overcrowded group (9.0%; 99/1,100) and lowest in the under-occupied group (4.2%; 980/23,196). In a mixed-effects logistic regression model, we found strong evidence of an increased odds of a positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 antigen result (odds ratio 2.45; 95% CI:1.43-4.19; p-value=0.001) and increased odds of a positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody result in individuals living in overcrowded houses (3.32; 95% CI:1.54-7.15; p-value<0.001) compared with people living in under-occupied houses. Conclusion:Public health interventions to prevent and stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 should consider the risk of infection for people living in overcrowded households and pay greater attention to reducing household transmission.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Robert W Aldridge
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Helen Pineo
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Ellen Fragaszy
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
- Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Max T Eyre
- Centre of Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
| | - Jana Kovar
- Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK
| | - Vincent Nguyen
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Sarah Beale
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
- Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK
| | - Thomas Byrne
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Anna Aryee
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Colette Smith
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Delan Devakumar
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow Institute of Health and Wellbeing,, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Wing Lam Erica Fong
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Cyril Geismar
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
- Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK
| | - Parth Patel
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Madhumita Shrotri
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Isobel Braithwaite
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Nicholas Patni
- University of Oxford Medical School, Medical Sciences Divisional Office, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Annalan M.D. Navaratnam
- Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Anne M. Johnson
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Andrew Hayward
- Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Taylor J, Symonds P, Heaviside C, Chalabi Z, Davies M, Wilkinson P. Projecting the impacts of housing on temperature-related mortality in London during typical future years. ENERGY AND BUILDINGS 2021; 249:None. [PMID: 34819713 PMCID: PMC8593871 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2020] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change means the UK will experience warmer winters and hotter summers in the future. Concurrent energy efficiency improvements to housing may modify indoor exposures to heat or cold, while population aging may increase susceptibility to temperature-related mortality. We estimate heat and cold mortality and energy consumption in London for typical (non-extreme) future climates, given projected changes in population and housing. Building physics models are used to simulate summertime and wintertime indoor temperatures and space heating energy consumption of London dwellings for 'baseline' (2005-2014) and future (2030s, 2050s) periods using data from the English Housing Survey, historical weather data, and projected future weather data with temperatures representative of 'typical' years. Linking to population projections, we calculate future heat and cold attributable mortality and energy consumption with demolition, construction, and alternative scenarios of energy efficiency retrofit. At current retrofit rates, around 168-174 annual cold-related deaths per million population would typically be avoided by the 2050s, or 261-269 deaths per million under ambitious retrofit rates. Annual heat deaths would typically increase by 1 per million per year under the current retrofit rate, and 12-13 per million under ambitious rates without population adaptation to heat. During typical future summers, an estimated 38-73% of heat-related deaths can be avoided using external shutters on windows, with their effectiveness lower during hotter weather. Despite warmer winters, ambitious retrofit rates are necessary to reduce typical annual energy consumption for heating below baseline levels, assuming no improvement in heating system efficiencies. Concerns over future overheating in energy efficient housing are valid but increases in heat attributable mortality during typical and hot (but not extreme) summers are more than offset by significant reductions in cold mortality and easily mitigated using passive measures. More ambitious retrofit rates are critical to reduce energy consumption and offer co-benefits for reducing cold-related mortality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Phil Symonds
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Zaid Chalabi
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mike Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Symonds P, Milner J, Mohajeri N, Aplin J, Hale J, J Lloyd S, Fremont H, Younkin S, Shrubsole C, Robertson L, Taylor J, Zimmermann N, Wilkinson P, Davies M. A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT). Wellcome Open Res 2021; 5:269. [PMID: 34307900 PMCID: PMC8280949 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16345.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The 'Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)' tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM 2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO 2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the 'active travel' policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Phil Symonds
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - James Milner
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health & Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | | | - Joanna Hale
- Centre for Behaviour Change, University College London, London, UK
| | - Simon J Lloyd
- Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Henry Fremont
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA
| | - Sam Younkin
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA
| | - Clive Shrubsole
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | | | - Jonathon Taylor
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Nici Zimmermann
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health & Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mike Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Xing Q, Sun Z, Tao Y, Zhang X, Miao S, Zheng C, Tong S. Impacts of urbanization on the temperature-cardiovascular mortality relationship in Beijing, China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 191:110234. [PMID: 32956657 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The effect of temperature on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has been extensively studied. However, it remains largely unknown over whether there is any difference between urban and suburban areas within the same city and how urbanization modifies the relationship between temperature and CVD mortality. In order to examine whether the association between temperature and CVD mortality existed difference in urban and suburban areas, and how urbanization modified this association, we used a distributed lag nonlinear model and a generalized additive model to investigate temperature-related CVD mortality in urban and suburban areas in Beijing, China, from 2006 to 2011. The age, gender, and educational attainment of the population were stratified to explore the modifying effect. We observed that the impacts of heat and cold temperature on CVD mortality were higher in suburban areas than in urban areas. In addition, the elderly and illiterate subjects in suburban areas were more vulnerable to both heat and cold than their counterparts in urban areas. Moreover, higher urbanization levels were significantly associated with districts having lower the excess risks for temperature- CVD mortality. Our findings provide evidence that populations in suburban Beijing have higher risk of temperature-related CVD mortality than those in urban areas. Therefore, greater attention should be paid to vulnerable groups in suburban areas to reduce temperature-related health burden.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qian Xing
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - ZhaoBin Sun
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China.
| | - Yan Tao
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Xiaoling Zhang
- Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China
| | - Shiguang Miao
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - Canjun Zheng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Symonds P, Milner J, Mohajeri N, Aplin J, Hale J, J Lloyd S, Fremont H, Younkin S, Shrubsole C, Robertson L, Taylor J, Zimmermann N, Wilkinson P, Davies M. A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT). Wellcome Open Res 2020; 5:269. [PMID: 34307900 PMCID: PMC8280949 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16345.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/30/2020] [Indexed: 09/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The 'Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)' tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM 2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO 2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the 'active travel' policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Phil Symonds
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - James Milner
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health & Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | | | - Joanna Hale
- Centre for Behaviour Change, University College London, London, UK
| | - Simon J Lloyd
- Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Henry Fremont
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA
| | - Sam Younkin
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA
| | - Clive Shrubsole
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | | | - Jonathon Taylor
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Nici Zimmermann
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health & Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mike Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, London, WC1H 0NN, UK
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Fundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17217795. [PMID: 33114437 PMCID: PMC7662600 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17217795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2020] [Revised: 10/16/2020] [Accepted: 10/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
The international community has recognized global warming as an impending catastrophe that poses significant threat to life on earth. In response, the signatories of the Paris Agreement (2015) have committed to limit the increase in global mean temperature to <1.5 °C from pre-industry period, which is defined as 1850–1890. Considering that the protection of human life is a central focus in the Paris Agreement, the naturally endowed properties of the human body to protect itself from environmental extremes should form the core of an integrated and multifaceted solution against global warming. Scholars believe that heat and thermoregulation played important roles in the evolution of life and continue to be a central mechanism that allows humans to explore, labor and live in extreme conditions. However, the international effort against global warming has focused primarily on protecting the environment and on the reduction of greenhouse gases by changing human behavior, industrial practices and government policies, with limited consideration given to the nature and design of the human thermoregulatory system. Global warming is projected to challenge the limits of human thermoregulation, which can be enhanced by complementing innate human thermo-plasticity with the appropriate behavioral changes and technological innovations. Therefore, the primary aim of this review is to discuss the fundamental concepts and physiology of human thermoregulation as the underlying bases for human adaptation to global warming. Potential strategies to extend human tolerance against environmental heat through behavioral adaptations and technological innovations will also be discussed. An important behavioral adaptation postulated by this review is that sleep/wake cycles would gravitate towards a sub-nocturnal pattern, especially for outdoor activities, to avoid the heat in the day. Technologically, the current concept of air conditioning the space in the room would likely steer towards the concept of targeted body surface cooling. The current review was conducted using materials that were derived from PubMed search engine and the personal library of the author. The PubMed search was conducted using combinations of keywords that are related to the theme and topics in the respective sections of the review. The final set of articles selected were considered “state of the art,” based on their contributions to the strength of scientific evidence and novelty in the domain knowledge on human thermoregulation and global warming.
Collapse
|
12
|
Jung CC, Hsia YF, Hsu NY, Wang YC, Su HJ. Cumulative effect of indoor temperature on cardiovascular disease-related emergency department visits among older adults in Taiwan. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 731:138958. [PMID: 32408209 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2019] [Revised: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 04/22/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Studies have demonstrated that exposure to extreme outdoor temperatures increases cardiovascular disease mortality and morbidity. However, people spend 80%-90% of their time indoors, and the cumulative effects of exposure to high or low temperature on the risk of cardiovascular diseases had not been considered. This study investigated the cumulative effects of high or low indoor temperature exposure on the risk of cardiovascular diseases. We estimated indoor temperatures by using a prediction model of indoor temperature from a previous study and further calculated the cumulative degree hours at different indoor temperature ranges. Samples of emergency department visits due to cardiovascular diseases were collected from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID) from 2000 to 2014 in Taiwan. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model to analyze the data. Our data demonstrated a significant risk of emergency department visits due to cardiovascular diseases at 27, 28, 29, 30, and 31 °C when cooling cumulative degree hours exceeded 62, 43, 16, 1, and 1 during the hot season (May to October), respectively, and at 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 °C when heating cumulative degree hours exceeded 1, 1, 1, 11, and 33 during the cold season (November to April), respectively. Cumulative degree hours were different according to gender and age groups. Policymakers should further consider the cumulative effects to prevent hot- or cold-related cardiovascular diseases for populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chien-Cheng Jung
- Department of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung City, Taiwan
| | - Ying-Fang Hsia
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan
| | - Nai-Yun Hsu
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Chun Wang
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung-Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan
| | - Huey-Jen Su
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan.
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
A Methodology for Assembling Future Weather Files Including Heatwaves for Building Thermal Simulations from the European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) Climate Data. ENERGIES 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/en13133424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
With increasing mean and extreme temperatures due to climate change, it becomes necessary to use—not only future typical conditions—but future heatwaves in building thermal simulations as well. Future typical weather files are widespread, but few researchers have put together methodologies to reproduce future extreme conditions. Furthermore, climate uncertainties need to be considered and it is often difficult due to the lack of data accessibility. In this article, we propose a methodology to re-assemble future weather files—ready-to-use for building simulations—using data from the European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) dynamically downscaled regional climate multi-year projections. It is the first time that this database is used to assemble weather files for building simulations because of its recent availability. Two types of future weather files are produced: typical weather years (TWY) and heatwave events (HWE). Combined together, they can be used to fully assess building resilience to overheating in future climate conditions. A case study building in Paris is modelled to compare the impact of the different weather files on the indoor operative temperature of the building. The results confirm that it is better to use multiple types of future weather files, climate models, and or scenarios to fully grasp climate projection uncertainties.
Collapse
|
14
|
A Review of the Relation between Household Indoor Temperature and Health Outcomes. ENERGIES 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/en13112881] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
This paper provides a review of research that addresses the relationship between indoor temperatures and health outcomes, taking into consideration studies that focus heat or cold exposure within the household context. It aims to extend previous research by considering both indoor temperatures from existing housing, and empirical studies that focus on energy efficiency measures and subsequent health impacts. To achieve this aim, a literature review was undertaken, combining engineering and health databases. The review established that, overall, inadequate indoor temperatures are associated with poor health status, whereas energy efficiency measures have been associated to improved indoor temperatures and occupant’s health namely regarding cardiovascular, respiratory and mental health disorders. These health conditions are among the most prevalent non-communicable diseases (NCD). The review also highlighted the need for more empirical studies with an extended timeframe to deal with climate change challenges. It underlined the potential advantages of the convergence between health and energy efficiency studies, for better modelling and planning.
Collapse
|
15
|
Abstract
As the climate changes globally and locally, the built environment will be subject to different climatic exposure than in the past. Adaptation measures are required to ensure the long-term integrity and successful operation of the built environment. This study examines literature on climate adaptation measures for buildings through a scoping literature review. It is centered around the main journals in the field of climate adaptation of the built environment, then expanded to map the extent of scientific publications about climate adaptation in general. Studies that regard future climate scenarios have been of particular interest. The majority of the identified literature concerns climate change impacts on buildings in warm climates, with overheating being seen as the greatest challenge. Additionally, few empirical studies are found; most identified research is based on computer simulations or literature reviews. The volume of research on the consequences of climate change on buildings in cold regions is surprisingly small, considering the pecuniary stakes involved. The predictions of climate scenarios suggest regulatory/policy measures on climate adaptation should be taken as quickly as possible to avoid greater costs in the future. However, further research into future scenarios is also essential.
Collapse
|
16
|
Williams AA, Spengler JD, Catalano P, Allen JG, Cedeno-Laurent JG. Building Vulnerability in a Changing Climate: Indoor Temperature Exposures and Health Outcomes in Older Adults Living in Public Housing during an Extreme Heat Event in Cambridge, MA. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E2373. [PMID: 31277359 PMCID: PMC6651653 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16132373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2019] [Revised: 06/18/2019] [Accepted: 06/29/2019] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
In the Northeastern U.S., future heatwaves will increase in frequency, duration, and intensity due to climate change. A great deal of the research about the health impacts from extreme heat has used ambient meteorological measurements, which can result in exposure misclassification because buildings alter indoor temperatures and ambient temperatures are not uniform across cities. To characterize indoor temperature exposures during an extreme heat event in buildings with and without central air conditioning (AC), personal monitoring was conducted with 51 (central AC, n = 24; non-central AC, n = 27) low-income senior residents of public housing in Cambridge, Massachusetts in 2015, to comprehensively assess indoor temperatures, sleep, and physiological outcomes of galvanic skin response (GSR) and heart rate (HR), along with daily surveys of adaptive behaviors and health symptoms. As expected, non-central AC units (Tmean = 25.6 °C) were significantly warmer than those with central AC (Tmean = 23.2 °C, p < 0.001). With higher indoor temperatures, sleep was more disrupted and GSR and HR both increased (p < 0.001). However, there were no changes in hydration behaviors between residents of different buildings over time and few moderate/several health symptoms were reported. This suggests both a lack of behavioral adaptation and thermal decompensation beginning, highlighting the need to improve building cooling strategies and heat education to low-income senior residents, especially in historically cooler climates.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Augusta A Williams
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - John D Spengler
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Paul Catalano
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Joseph G Allen
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Jose G Cedeno-Laurent
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Macintyre HL, Heaviside C. Potential benefits of cool roofs in reducing heat-related mortality during heatwaves in a European city. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2019; 127:430-441. [PMID: 30959308 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2018] [Revised: 02/25/2019] [Accepted: 02/25/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Hot weather can exacerbate health conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and lead to heat stroke and death. In built up areas, temperatures are commonly observed to be higher than those in surrounding rural areas, due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Climate change and increasing urbanisation mean that future populations are likely to be at increased risk of overheating in cities, although building and city scale interventions have the potential to reduce this risk. We use a regional weather model to assess the potential effect of one type of urban intervention - reflective 'cool' roofs - to reduce local ambient temperatures, and the subsequent impact on heat-related mortality in the West Midlands, UK, with analysis undertaken for the summer of 2006, as well as two shorter heatwave periods in 2006 and 2003. We show that over a summer season, the population-weighted UHI intensity (the difference between simulated urban and rural temperature) was 1.1 °C on average, but 1.8 °C when including only night times, and reached a maximum of 9 °C in the West Midlands. Our results suggest that the UHI contributes up to 40% of heat related mortality over the summer period and that cool roofs implemented across the whole city could potentially offset 18% of seasonal heat-related mortality associated with the UHI (corresponding to 7% of total heat-related mortality). For heatwave periods, our modelling suggests that cool roofs could reduce city centre daytime 2 m air temperature by 0.5 °C on average, and up to a maximum of ~3 °C. Cool roofs reduced average UHI intensity by ~23%, and reduced heat related mortality associated with the UHI by ~25% during a heatwave. Cool roofs were most effective at reducing peak temperatures during the daytime, and therefore have the potential to limit dangerous extreme temperatures during heatwaves. Temperature reductions were dependent on the category of buildings where cool roofs were applied; targeting only commercial and industrial type buildings contributed more than half of the reduction for heatwave periods. Our modelling suggested that modifying half of all industrial/commercial urban buildings could have the same impact as modifying all high-intensity residential buildings in the West Midlands.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- H L Macintyre
- Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - C Heaviside
- Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Estimating the Influence of Housing Energy Efficiency and Overheating Adaptations on Heat-Related Mortality in the West Midlands, UK. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9050190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
|