Estimating daily air temperature across the Southeastern United States using high-resolution satellite data: A statistical modeling study

Using geographic effect measure modification to examine socioeconomic-related surface temperature disparities in New York City

BACKGROUND

Lower socioeconomic (SES) communities are more likely to be situated in urban heat islands and have higher heat exposures than their higher SES counterparts, and this inequality is expected to intensify due to climate change.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the relationship between surface temperatures and SES in New York City (NYC) by employing a novel analytical approach. Through incorporating modifiable features, this study aims to identify potential locations where mitigation interventions can be implemented to reduce heat disparities associated with SES.

METHODS

Using the 2013-2017 American Community Survey, U.S Landsat-8 Analysis Ready Data surface temperatures (measured on 8/12/2016), and the NYC Land Cover Dataset at the census tract level (2098 tracts), this study examines the association between two components of tract-level SES (percentage of individuals living below the poverty line and the percentage of individuals without a high school degree) and summer day surface temperature in NYC. First, we examine this association with an unrestricted NYC linear regression, examining the city-wide association between the two SES facets and summer surface temperature, with additional models adjusting for altitude, shoreline, and nature-cover. Then, we assess geographic effect measure modification by employing the same models to three supplemental regression model strategies (borough-restricted and community district-restricted linear regressions, and geographically weighted regression (GWR)) that examined associations within smaller intra-city areas.

RESULTS

All regression strategies identified areas where lower neighborhood SES composition is associated with higher summer day surface temperatures. The unrestricted NYC regressions revealed widespread disparities, while the borough-restricted and community district-restricted regressions identified specific political boundaries within which these disparities existed. The GWR, addressing spatial autocorrelation, identified significant socioeconomic heat disparities in locations such as northwest Bronx, central Brooklyn, and uptown Manhattan. These findings underscore the need for targeted policies and community interventions, including equitable urban planning and cooling strategies, to mitigate heat exposure in vulnerable neighborhoods.

IMPACT STATEMENT

This study redefines previous research on urban socioeconomic disparities in heat exposure by investigating both modifiable (nature cover) and non-modifiable (altitude and shoreline) built environment factors affecting local temperatures at the census tract level in New York City. Through a novel analytical approach, the research aims to highlight intervention opportunities to mitigate heat disparities related to socioeconomic status. By examining the association between surface temperatures and socioeconomic status, as well as investigating different geographic and governmental scales, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers and community members to address heat exposure inequalities effectively across different administrative boundaries. The objective is to pinpoint potential sites for reducing socioeconomic heat exposure disparities at various geographic and political levels.

Modelling Europe-wide fine resolution daily ambient temperature for 2003-2020 using machine learning

To improve our understanding of the health impacts of high and low temperatures, epidemiological studies require spatiotemporally resolved ambient temperature (Ta) surfaces. Exposure assessment over various European cities for multi-cohort studies requires high resolution and harmonized exposures over larger spatiotemporal extents. Our aim was to develop daily mean, minimum and maximum ambient temperature surfaces with a 1 × 1 km resolution for Europe for the 2003-2020 period. We used a two-stage random forest modelling approach. Random forest was used to (1) impute missing satellite derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) using vegetation and weather variables and to (2) use the gap-filled LST together with land use and meteorological variables to model spatial and temporal variation in Ta measured at weather stations. To assess performance, we validated these models using random and block validation. In addition to global performance, and to assess model stability, we reported model performance at a higher granularity (local). Globally, our models explained on average more than 81 % and 93 % of the variability in the block validation sets for LST and Ta respectively. Average RMSE was 1.3, 1.9 and 1.7 °C for mean, min and max ambient temperature respectively, indicating a generally good performance. For Ta models, local performance was stable across most of the spatiotemporal extent, but showed lower performance in areas with low observation density. Overall, model stability and performance were lower when using block validation compared to random validation. The presented models will facilitate harmonized high-resolution exposure assignment for multi-cohort studies at a European scale.

Examining racial and ethnic heat exposure disparities in New York City (NYC) across different spatial and political scales through geographic effect measure modification

Structural racism in the United States has resulted in neighborhoods with higher proportions of non-Hispanic Black (Black) or Hispanic/Latine residents having more features that intensify, and less that cool, the local-heat environment. This study identifies areas of New York City (NYC) where racial/ethnic heat exposure disparities are concentrated. We analyzed data from the 2013-2017 American Community Survey, U.S Landsat-8 Analysis Ready Data on summer surface temperatures, and NYC Land Cover Dataset at the census tract-level (n = 2098). Four cross-sectional regression modeling strategies were used to estimate the overall City-wide association, and associations across smaller intra-city areas, between tract-level percent of Black and percent Hispanic/Latine residents and summer day surface temperature, adjusting for altitude, shoreline, and nature-cover: overall NYC linear, borough-specific linear, Community District-specific linear, and geographically weighted regression models. All three linear regressions identified associations between neighborhood racial and ethnic composition and summer day surface temperatures. The geographically weighted regression models, which address the issue of spatial autocorrelation, identified specific locations (such as northwest Bronx, central Brooklyn, and uptown Manhattan) within which racial and ethnic disparities for heat exposures are concentrated. Through examining the overall effects and geographic effect measure modification across spatial scales, the results of this study identify specific geographic areas for intervention to mitigate heat exposure disparities experienced by Black and Hispanic/Latine NYC residents.

Methods to Advance Climate Science in Respiratory Health: Satellite-Based Environmental Modeling for Temperature Exposure Assessment in Epidemiological Studies

Climate change is a major concern with significant impacts on human health including respiratory outcomes, particularly through changes in air temperature. The rise in global temperature has led to an increase in heat waves and extreme weather events, which pose serious risks to respiratory health. Accurately assessing the effects of air temperature on respiratory health requires a comprehensive approach that incorporates fine-scale exposure assessment to characterize the geospatial environment impacting population health. Recent advances in open-source earth observation data have allowed for improved exposure assessment through temperature modeling.

Climatology and landscape determinants of AOD, SO2 and NO2 over Indo-Gangetic Plain

Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) experiences high loading of particulate and gaseous pollutants all year around and is considered to be the most polluted regions of India. Understanding the effect of landscape determinants on air pollution in IGP regions is crucial to make its environment sustainable. We examined satellite retrievals of OMI NO₂ and SO₂, and MODIS AOD to analyse the long-term trend, spatio-seasonal pattern and dynamics of aerosols, NO₂ and SO₂ over three IGP regions, namely Upper Indo-Gangetic plain (UIGP), Middle Indo-Gangetic plain (MIGP) and Lower Indo-Gangetic plain (LIGP) over the period 2005-2019. IGP experienced an overall increment in AOD (R² = 0.63) and SO₂ (R² = 0.67) values, with LIGP (AOD, R² = 0.8 & SO₂, R² = 0.8) experiencing the largest rate of enhancement. The levels of NO₂ (R² = 0.2) experienced a decrement after 2012 (owing to implementation of vehicle emission policy) except in MIGP, with UIGP (R² = 0.23) exhibiting the largest rate of decrement. Seasonal heterogeneity in the nature of sources was observed over IGP regions. AOD (0.61 ± 0.1) and NO₂ value (3.82 ± 0.98 × 10¹⁵ molecules/cm²) were found highest during post-monsoon in UIGP owing to crop residue burning activity. The value of NO₂ (3.8 ± 1.4 × 10¹⁵ molecules/cm²) in MIGP was found highest during pre-monsoon due to high consumption of coal in power plants for summer cooling demand. The highest SO₂ level (0.09 ± 0.06 DU) was observed during post-monsoon in UIGP, as a large number of brick kilns are fired during this period. Correlations among landscape determinants and pollutants revealed that topography is the dominant variable that affect the spatial pattern of AOD compared to vegetation and land use. Lower elevation tends to have high AOD values compared to higher elevation. Vegetation-AOD relationship showed an inverse association in IGP regions and is influenced by factors such as seasonal meteorology and size of the airborne particles. Vegetation possesses positive relationship with SO₂ and NO₂, implying no pollution abatement effect on SO₂ and NO₂ pollutants. Built-up change has deteriorating effect as well as quenching effect on pollutants. Increase in built terrain have deteriorated the air quality in UIGP whereas it favored in suppressing the aerosol level in LIGP.

High-resolution spatiotemporal modeling of daily near-surface air temperature in Germany over the period 2000-2020

The commonly used weather stations cannot fully capture the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature (T_air), leading to exposure misclassification and biased health effect estimates. We aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of T_air data in Germany by using multi-stage modeling to estimate daily 1 × 1 km minimum (T_min), mean (T_mean), maximum (T_max) T_air and diurnal T_air range during 2000-2020. We used weather station T_air observations, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), elevation, vegetation and various land use predictors. In the first stage, we built a linear mixed model with daily random intercepts and slopes for LST adjusted for several spatial predictors to estimate T_air from cells with both T_air and LST available. In the second stage, we used this model to predict T_air for cells with only LST available. In the third stage, we regressed the second stage predictions against interpolated T_air values to obtain T_air countrywide. All models achieved high accuracy (0.91 ≤ R² ≤ 0.98) and low errors (1.03 °C ≤ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 2.02 °C). Validation with external data confirmed the good performance, locally, i.e., in Augsburg for all models (0.74 ≤ R² ≤ 0.99, 0.87 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.05 °C) and countrywide, for the T_mean model (0.71 ≤ R² ≤ 0.99, 0.79 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.19 °C). Annual T_mean averages ranged from 8.56 °C to 10.42 °C with the years beyond 2016 being constantly hotter than the 21-year average. The spatial variability within Germany exceeded 15 °C annually on average following patterns including mountains, rivers and urbanization. Using a case study, we showed that modeling leads to broader T_air variability representation for exposure assessment of participants in health cohorts. Our results indicate the proposed models as suitable for estimating nationwide T_air at high resolution. Our product is critical for temperature-based epidemiological studies and is also available for other research purposes.

Characteristics and health risks of parent, alkylated, and oxygenated PAHs and their contributions to reactive oxygen species from PM2.5 vehicular emissions in the longest tunnel in downtown Xi'an, China

A vehicular emission study was conducted in the longest inner-city tunnel in Xi'an, northwestern China in four time periods (I: 07:30-10:30, II: 11:00-14:00, III: 16:30-19:30, and IV: 20:00-23:00 LST). A sum of 40 PAHs, including parent (p-PAHs), alkylated (a-PAHs), and oxygenated (o-PAHs) in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) were quantified. The relationships between the PAHs and the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) were also studied. The average total quantified PAHs concentration was 236.3 ± 48.3 ng m^-3. The p-PAHs were found to be the most dominated group, accounting for an average of 88.1% of the total quantified PAHs, followed by a-PAHs (6.1%) and o-PAHs (5.8%). On the base of the number of aromatic rings, the groups of ≤5 rings (92.5 ± 1.2%) had higher fractions than the high ones (≥6 rings, 7.5 ± 1.2%) for pPAHs. Diurnal variations of PAHs subgroups exhibited the highest levels in Period III, consistent with the largest traffic counts in evening rush hours. However, less reduction of few PAHs in the night period demonstrates that the emissions of compressed natural gas (CNG) and methanol-fueled vehicles cannot be ignored while their contribution increased. High ROS activity levels were observed in the traffic-dominated samples, implying the potential oxidative damages to humans. Additionally, diurnal variation of the ROS activity was consistent with the total quantified PAHs and toxic equivalency of benzo[a]pyrene. Good correlations (R > 0.6, p < 0.05) were seen between individual groups of PAHs (especially for 3-5 rings p-PAHs, 4 rings a-PAHs, and 2-3 rings o-PAHs) and ROS activity, supporting that the vehicular emitted PAHs possibly initiate oxidative stress. The multiple linear regression analysis further illustrated that chrysene contributed the highest (25.0%) to ROS activity. In addition to highlighting the potential hazards to the PAHs from the vehicular emission, their roles to mitigate the health effects by formations of ROS were firstly reported in northwestern China.

Estimation of Daily and Instantaneous Near-Surface Air Temperature from MODIS Data Using Machine Learning Methods in the Jingjinji Area of China

Meteorologically observed air temperature (Ta) is limited due to low density and uneven distribution that leads to uncertain accuracy. Therefore, remote sensing data have been widely used to estimate near-surface Ta on various temporal scales due to their spatially continuous characteristics. However, few studies have focused on instantaneous Ta when satellites overpass. This study aims to produce both daily and instantaneous Ta datasets at 1 km resolution for the Jingjinji area, China during 2018–2019, using machine learning methods based on remote sensing data, dense meteorological observation station data, and auxiliary data (such as elevation and normalized difference vegetation index). Newly released Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 surface Downward Shortwave Radiation (DSR) was introduced to improve the accuracy of Ta estimation. Five machine learning algorithms were implemented and compared so that the optimal one could be selected. The random forest (RF) algorithm outperformed the others (such as decision tree, feedforward neural network, generalized linear model) and RF obtained the highest accuracy in model validation with a daily root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.29 °C, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.94 °C, daytime instantaneous RMSE of 1.88 °C, MAE of 1.35 °C, nighttime instantaneous RMSE of 2.47 °C, and MAE of 1.83 °C. The corresponding R2 was 0.99 for daily average, 0.98 for daytime instantaneous, and 0.95 for nighttime instantaneous. Analysis showed that land surface temperature (LST) was the most important factor contributing to model accuracy, followed by solar declination and DSR, which implied that DSR should be prioritized when estimating Ta. Particularly, these results outperformed most models presented in previous studies. These findings suggested that RF could be used to estimate daily instantaneous Ta at unprecedented accuracy and temporal scale with proper training and very dense station data. The estimated dataset could be very useful for local climate and ecology studies, as well as for nature resources exploration.

High-Resolution Estimation of Monthly Air Temperature from Joint Modeling of In Situ Measurements and Gridded Temperature Data

Surface air temperature is an important variable in quantifying extreme heat, but high-resolution temporal and spatial measurement is limited by sparse climate-data stations. As a result, hyperlocal models of extreme heat involve intensive physical data collection efforts or analyze satellite-derived land-surface temperature instead. We developed a geostatistical model that integrates in situ climate-quality temperature records, gridded temperature data, land-surface temperature estimates, and spatially consistent covariates to predict monthly averaged daily maximum surface-air temperatures at spatial resolutions up to 30 m. We trained and validated the model using data from North Carolina. The fitted model showed strong predictive performance with a mean absolute error of 1.61 ∘F across all summer months and a correlation coefficient of 0.75 against an independent hyperlocal temperature model for the city of Durham. We show that the proposed model framework is highly scalable and capable of producing realistic temperature fields across a variety of physiographic settings, even in areas where no climate-quality data stations are available.

Predicting spatiotemporally-resolved mean air temperature over Sweden from satellite data using an ensemble model

Mapping of air temperature (Ta) at high spatiotemporal resolution is critical to reducing exposure assessment errors in epidemiological studies on the health effects of air temperature. In this study, we applied a three-stage ensemble model to estimate daily mean Ta from satellite-based land surface temperature (Ts) over Sweden during 2001-2019 at a high spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km². The ensemble model incorporated four base models, including a generalized additive model (GAM), a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), and two machine learning models (random forest [RF] and extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]), and allowed the weights for each model to vary over space, with the best-performing model for each grid cell assigned the highest weight. Various spatial predictors were included as adjustment variables in all the base models, including land cover type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and elevation. The ensemble model showed high performance with an overall R² of 0.98 and a root mean square error of 1.38 °C in the ten-fold cross-validation, and outperformed each of the four base models. Although each base model performed well, the two machine learning models (RF [R² = 0.97], XGBoost [R² = 0.98]) had better performance than the two regression models (GAM [R² = 0.95], GAMM [R² = 0.96]). In the machine learning models, Ts was the dominant predictor of Ta, followed by day of year, NDVI, latitude, elevation, and longitude. The highly spatiotemporally-resolved Ta can improve temperature exposure assessment in future epidemiological studies.

A spatiotemporal reconstruction of daily ambient temperature using satellite data in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico from 2003 to 2019

While weather stations generally capture near-surface ambient air temperature (Ta) at a high temporal resolution to calculate daily values (i.e., daily minimum, mean, and maximum Ta), their fixed locations can limit their spatial coverage and resolution even in densely populated urban areas. As a result, data from weather stations alone may be inadequate for Ta-related epidemiology particularly when the stations are not located in the areas of interest for human exposure assessment. To address this limitation in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico (MCM), we developed the first spatiotemporally resolved hybrid satellite-based land use regression Ta model for the region, home to nearly 30 million people and includes Mexico City and seven more metropolitan areas. Our model predicted daily minimum, mean, and maximum Ta for the years 2003-2019. We used data from 120 weather stations and Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from NASA's MODIS instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites on a 1 × 1 km grid. We generated a satellite-hybrid mixed-effects model for each year, regressing Ta measurements against land use terms, day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random LST slopes. We assessed model performance using 10-fold cross-validation at withheld stations. Across all years, the root-mean-square error ranged from 0.92 to 1.92 K and the R 2 ranged from .78 to .95. To demonstrate the utility of our model for health research, we evaluated the total number of days in the year 2010 when residents ≥65 years old were exposed to Ta extremes (above 30°C or below 5°C). Our model provides much needed high-quality Ta estimates for epidemiology studies in the MCM region.

Association between short-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter and myocardial injury in the CATHGEN cohort

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has been associated with a higher risk for coronary events. Elevated circulating cardiac troponins (cTn) are suggestive of myocardial injury in both ischemic and non-ischemic conditions. However, little is known about the association between PM_2.5 and cTn. In this study, we investigated short-term PM_2.5 effects on cardiac troponin T (cTnT), as well as N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro BNP) and inflammatory biomarkers among cardiac catheterized participants. We analyzed 7444 plasma cTnT measurements in 2732 participants who presented to Duke University Hospital with myocardial infarction symptoms between 2001 and 2012, partly along with measurements of NT-pro BNP and inflammatory biomarkers. Daily PM_2.5 concentrations were predicted by a neural network-based hybrid model and were assigned to participants' residential addresses. We applied generalized estimating equations to assess associations of PM_2.5 with biomarker levels and the risk of a positive cTnT test (cTnT > 0.1 ng/mL). The median plasma cTnT concentration at presentation was 0.05 ng/mL and the prevalence of a positive cTnT test was 35.4%. For an interquartile range (7.6 μg/m³) increase in PM_2.5 on the previous day, cTnT concentrations increased by 7.7% (95% CI: 3.4-12.3) and the odds ratio of a positive cTnT test was 1.08 (1.01-1.16). Participants under 60 years (effect estimate: 15.2%; 95% CI: 7.4-23.5) or living in rural areas (12.3%; 95% CI: 4.8-20.3) were more susceptible. There was evidence for increases in fibrinogen and NT-pro BNP associated with elevated PM_2.5 on the concurrent and previous two days. Our study suggests that acute PM_2.5 exposure may elevate indicators of myocardial tissue damage. This finding substantiates the association of air pollution exposure with adverse cardiovascular events.

Correlation Analysis between Air Temperature and MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Prediction of Air Temperature Using TensorFlow Long Short-Term Memory for the Period of Occurrence of Cold and Heat Waves

The purpose of this study is to analyze the correlation between surface air temperature (SAT) and land surface temperature (LST) based on land use when heat and cold waves occur and to predict the distribution of SAT using the long short-term memory (LSTM) of TensorFlow. For the correlation analysis, the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daytime and nighttime LST and maximum, minimum, and mean SAT were measured at 79 weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) from 2008 to 2018. As a result of the correlation analysis between SAT and LST, the maximum SAT (TMX) had a good correlation with the daytime LST of Terra MODIS, with a Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) of 0.92 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.8 °C, and the minimum SAT (TMN) showed a good correlation with the nighttime LST of Terra MODIS, with an R of 0.93 and RMSE of 4.2 °C. When analyzing temperature characteristics by land use (urban, paddy, upland crop, forest, grass, wetland, bare field, and water), it was confirmed that the climate mitigation effect of the wetland and vegetation area appeared in the LSTs and the observed SAT. In the cold wave period, the average temperatures for urban and wetland areas was the highest, and the average temperature for wetland and forest was not higher than that of other land use classes. As the SAT results predicted through the LSTM model, the accuracy of the TMN during the cold wave period was 0.59 for the coefficient of determination (R2), 3.1 °C for RMSE, and 0.76 for the index of agreement (IoA), while the accuracy of the TMX for the heat wave period was 0.24 for R2, 2.23 °C for RMSE, and 0.63 for IoA.

A multi-resolution air temperature model for France from MODIS and Landsat thermal data

Understanding and managing the health effects of ambient temperature (Ta) in a warming, urbanizing world requires spatially- and temporally-resolved Ta at high resolutions. This is challenging in a large area like France which includes highly variable topography, rural areas with few weather stations, and heterogeneous urban areas where Ta can vary at fine spatial scales. We have modeled daily Ta from 2000 to 2016 at a base resolution of 1 km2 across continental France and at a 200 × 200 m2 resolution over large urban areas. For each day we predict three Ta measures: minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean), and maximum (Tmax). We start by using linear mixed models to calibrate daily Ta observations from weather stations with remotely sensed MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and other spatial predictors (e.g. NDVI, elevation) on a 1 km2 grid. We fill gaps where LST is missing (e.g. due to cloud cover) with additional mixed models that capture the relationship between predicted Ta at each location and observed Ta at nearby weather stations. The resulting 1 km Ta models perform very well, with ten-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.92, 0.97, and 0.95, mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.4 °C, 0.9 °C, and 1.4 °C, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.9 °C, 1.3 °C, and 1.8 °C (Tmin, Tmean, and Tmax, respectively) for the initial calibration stage. To increase the spatial resolution over large urban areas, we train random forest and extreme gradient boosting models to predict the residuals (R) of the 1 km Ta predictions on a 200 × 200 m2 grid. In this stage we replace MODIS LST and NDVI with composited top-of-atmosphere brightness temperature and NDVI from the Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellites. We use a generalized additive model to ensemble the random forest and extreme gradient boosting predictions with weights that vary spatially and by the magnitude of the predicted residual. The 200 m models also perform well, with ten-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.79, 0.79, and 0.85, MAE of 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3, and RMSE of 0.6, 0.4, and 0.5 (Rmin, Rmean, and Rmax, respectively). Our model will reduce bias in epidemiological studies in France by improving Ta exposure assessment in both urban and rural areas, and our methodology demonstrates that MODIS and Landsat thermal data can be used to generate gap-free timeseries of daily minimum, maximum, and mean Ta at a 200 × 200 m2 spatial resolution.

Diarrhea Patterns and Climate: A Spatiotemporal Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Diarrheal Disease in Afghanistan

Subject to a high burden of diarrheal diseases, Afghanistan is also susceptible to climate change. This study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of diarrheal disease in the country and how associated it is with climate variables. Using monthly aggregated new cases of acute diarrhea reported between 2010 and 2016 and monthly averaged climate data at the district level, we fitted a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical model. We found aridity and mean daily temperature were positively associated with diarrhea incidence; every 1°C increase in mean daily temperature and 0.01-unit change in the aridity index were associated with a 0.70% (CI: 0.67%, 0.73%) increase and a 4.79% (CI: 4.30%, 5.26%) increase in the risk of diarrhea, respectively. Average annual temperature, on the other hand, was negatively associated, with a 3.7% (CI: 3.74%, 3.68) decrease in risk for every degree Celsius increase in annual average temperature. Temporally, most districts exhibited similar seasonal trends, with incidence peaking in summer, except for the eastern region where differences in climate patterns and population density may be associated with high rates of diarrhea throughout the year. The results from this study highlight the significant role of climate in shaping diarrheal patterns in Afghanistan, allowing policymakers to account for potential impacts of climate change in their public health assessments.

Comparison of temperature-mortality associations estimated with different exposure metrics

Background:

Studies of the short-term association between ambient temperature and mortality often use temperature observations from a single monitoring station, frequently located at the nearest airport, to represent the exposure of individuals living across large areas. Population-weighted temperature estimates constructed from gridded meteorological data may offer an opportunity to improve exposure assessment in locations where station observations do not fully capture the average exposure of the population of interest.

Methods:

We compared the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in each of 113 United States counties using (1) temperature observations from a single weather station and (2) population-weighted temperature estimates constructed from a gridded meteorological dataset. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the 21-day cumulative association between temperature and mortality in each county, 1987–2006, adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of week, and holidays.

Results:

In the majority (73.4%) of counties, the relative risk of death on extremely hot days (99th percentile of weather station temperature) versus the minimum mortality temperature was larger when generated from the population-weighted estimates. In contrast, relative risks on extremely cold days (first percentile of weather station temperature) were often larger when generated from the weather station observations. In most counties, the difference in associations estimated from the two temperature metrics was small.

Conclusions:

In a large, multi-site analysis, temperature-mortality associations were largely similar when estimated from weather station observations versus population-weighted temperature estimates. However, spatially refined exposure data may be more appropriate for analyses seeking to elucidate local health effects.

Associations between seasonal temperature and dementia-associated hospitalizations in New England

Human-induced climate change has accelerated in recent decades, causing adverse health effects. However, the impact of the changing climate on neurological disorders in the older population is not well understood. We applied time-varying Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the associations between hospital admissions for dementia and the mean and variability of summer and winter temperatures in New England. We estimated seasonal temperatures for each New England zip code using a satellite-based prediction model. By characterizing spatial differences and temporal fluctuations in seasonal temperatures, we observed a lower risk of dementia-associated hospital admissions in years when local temperatures in either summer (hazard ration [HR] = 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96, 1.00) or winter (HR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94, 0.99) were higher than average, and a greater risk of dementia-associated admissions for older adults living in zip codes with higher temperature variations. Effect modifications by sex, race, age, and dual eligibility were considered to examine vulnerability of population subgroups. Our results suggest that cooler-than-average temperatures and higher temperature variability increase the risk of dementia-associated hospital admissions. Thus, climate change may affect progression of dementia and associated hospitalization costs.

Urban heat and air pollution: A framework for integrating population vulnerability and indoor exposure in health risk analyses

Urban growth and climate change will exacerbate extreme heat events and air pollution, posing considerable health challenges to urban populations. Although epidemiological studies have shown associations between health outcomes and exposures to ambient air pollution and extreme heat, the degree to which indoor exposures and social and behavioral factors may confound or modify these observed effects remains underexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we explore the linkages between vulnerability science and epidemiological conceptualizations of risk to propose a conceptual and analytical framework for characterizing current and future health risks to air pollution and extreme heat, indoors and outdoors. Our framework offers guidance for research on climatic variability, population vulnerability, the built environment, and health effects by illustrating how health data, spatially resolved ambient data, estimates of indoor conditions, and household-level vulnerability data can be integrated into an epidemiological model. We also describe an approach for characterizing population adaptive capacity and indoor exposure for use in population-based epidemiological models. Our framework and methods represent novel resources for the evaluation of health risks from extreme heat and air pollution, both indoors and outdoors.

Air pollution, ambient temperature, green space and preterm birth

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Preterm birth is the leading cause of global child mortality, and survivors are at increased risk of multiple morbidities that can continue into adulthood. Recent studies have suggested that maternal exposure to air pollution and high and low ambient temperatures may increase the risk of preterm birth, whereas proximity to green space may decrease it. This review summarizes these findings and suggests avenues for further research.

RECENT FINDINGS

Particulate matter may be associated with an increased risk of preterm birth, but the magnitude of the effect remains unclear. Heat and cold likely increase the risk of preterm birth, with stronger evidence for heat. The first and third trimesters may be sensitive periods for exposure to both temperature and particulate matter, but the underlying biological mechanisms are incompletely understood. Context-appropriate green space can substantially reduce particulate matter levels and mitigate urban heat islands.

SUMMARY

In a warming, urbanizing world, exposure to unusual temperatures and elevated particulate matter levels represent an increasing risk for pregnant women. Green infrastructure might help mitigate this risk, but further research is needed to confirm its effects in complex urban environments and evaluate the contribution of both indoor and outdoor particulate matter and air temperature to personal exposure and preterm birth.

Use of earth observations for temperature exposure assessment in epidemiological studies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Low, high, extreme, and variable temperatures have been linked to multiple adverse health outcomes, particularly among the elderly and children. Recent models incorporating satellite remote sensing data have mitigated several limitations of previous studies, improving exposure assessment. This review focuses on these new temperature exposure models and their application in epidemiological studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Satellite observations of land surface temperature have been used to model air temperature across large spatial areas at high spatiotemporal resolutions. These models enable exposure assessment of entire populations and have been shown to reduce error in exposure estimates, thus mitigating downward bias in health effect estimates.

SUMMARY

Satellite-based models improve our understanding of spatiotemporal variation in temperature and the associated health effects. Further research should focus on improving the resolution of these models, especially in urban areas, and increasing their use in epidemiological studies of direct temperature exposure and vector-borne diseases.

Short-term effects of fine particulate matter and ozone on the cardiac conduction system in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

BACKGROUND

Air pollution-induced changes in cardiac electrophysiological properties could be a pathway linking air pollution and cardiovascular events. The evidence of air pollution effects on the cardiac conduction system is incomplete yet. We investigated short-term effects of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) on cardiac electrical impulse propagation and repolarization as recorded in surface electrocardiograms (ECG).

METHODS

We analyzed repeated 12-lead ECG measurements performed on 5,332 patients between 2001 and 2012. The participants came from the Duke CATHGEN Study who underwent cardiac catheterization and resided in North Carolina, United States (NC, U.S.). Daily concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ at each participant's home address were predicted with a hybrid air quality exposure model. We used generalized additive mixed models to investigate the associations of PM_2.5 and O₃ with the PR interval, QRS interval, heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc), and heart rate (HR). The temporal lag structures of the associations were examined using distributed-lag models.

RESULTS

Elevated PM_2.5 and O₃ were associated with four-day lagged lengthening of the PR and QRS intervals, and with one-day lagged increases in HR. We observed immediate effects on the lengthening of the QTc interval for both PM_2.5 and O₃, as well as delayed effects for PM_2.5 (lagged by 3 - 4 days). The associations of PM_2.5 and O₃ with the PR interval and the association of O₃ with the QRS interval persisted until up to seven days after exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing cardiac catheterization, short-term exposure to air pollution was associated with increased HR and delays in atrioventricular conduction, ventricular depolarization and repolarization.

Quantitative evaluation of legacy phosphorus and its spatial distribution

A phosphorus resource crisis threatens the security of global crop production, especially in developing countries like China and Brazil. Legacy phosphorus (legacy-P), which is left behind in agricultural soil by over-fertilization, can help address this issue as a new resource in the soil phosphorus pool. However, issues involved with calculating and defining the spatial distribution of legacy-P hinder its future utilization. To resolve these issues, this study applied remote sensing and ecohydrological modeling to precisely quantify legacy-P and define its spatial distribution in China's Sanjiang Plain from 2000 to 2014. The total legacy-P in the study area was calculated as 579,090 t with an annual average of 38,600 t; this comprises 51.83% of the phosphorus fertilizer applied annually. From 2000 to 2014, the annual amount of legacy-P increased by more than 3.42-fold, equivalent to a 2460-ton increase each year. The spatial distribution of legacy-P showed heterogeneity and agglomeration in this area, with peaks in cultivated land experiencing long-term agricultural development. This study supplies a new approach to finding legacy-P in soil as a precondition for future utilization. Once its spatial distribution is known, legacy-P can be better utilized in agriculture to help alleviate the phosphorus resource crisis.

Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel

Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R² results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R² results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment.

Long-term Exposure to PM2.5 and Mortality Among Older Adults in the Southeastern US

BACKGROUND

Little is known about what factors modify the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on mortality, in part because in most previous studies certain groups such as rural residents and individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES) are under-represented.

METHODS

We studied 13.1 million Medicare beneficiaries (age ≥65) residing in seven southeastern US states during 2000-2013 with 95 million person-years of follow-up. We predicted annual average of PM2.5 in each zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) using a hybrid spatiotemporal model. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between long-term PM2.5 and mortality. We tested effect modification by individual-level covariates (race, sex, eligibility for both Medicare and Medicaid, and medical history), neighborhood-level covariates (urbanicity, percentage below poverty level, lower education, median income, and median home value), mean summer temperature, and mass fraction of 11 PM2.5 components.

RESULTS

The hazard ratio (HR) for death was 1.021 (95% confidence interval: 1.019, 1.022) per 1 μg m increase in annual PM2.5. The HR decreased with age. It was higher among males, non-whites, dual-eligible individuals, and beneficiaries with previous hospital admissions. It was higher in neighborhoods with lower SES or higher urbanicity. The HR increased with mean summer temperature. The risk associated with PM2.5 increased with relative concentration of elemental carbon, vanadium, copper, calcium, and iron and decreased with nitrate, organic carbon, and sulfate.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between long-term PM2.5 exposure and death were modified by individual-level, neighborhood-level variables, temperature, and chemical compositions.

Spatiotemporal estimation of air temperature patterns at the street level using high resolution satellite imagery

Although meteorological monitoring stations provide accurate measurements of Air Temperature (AT), their spatial coverage within a given region is limited and thus is often insufficient for exposure and epidemiological studies. In many applications, satellite imagery measures energy flux, which is spatially continuous, and calculates Brightness Temperature (BT) that used as an input parameter. Although both quantities (AT-BT) are physically related, the correlation between them is not straightforward, and varies daily due to parameters such as meteorological conditions, surface moisture, land use, satellite-surface geometry and others. In this paper we first investigate the relationship between AT and BT as measured by 39 meteorological stations in Israel during 1984-2015. Thereafter, we apply mixed regression models with daily random slopes to calibrate Landsat BT data with monitored AT measurements for the period 1984-2015. Results show that AT can be predicted with high accuracy by using BT with high spatial resolution. The model shows relatively high accuracy estimation of AT (R²=0.92, RMSE=1.58°C, slope=0.90). Incorporating meteorological parameters into the model generates better accuracy (R²=0.935) than the AT-BT model (R²=0.92). Furthermore, based on the relatively high model accuracy, we investigated the spatial patterns of AT within the study domain. In the latter we focused on July-August, as these two months are characterized by relativity stable synoptic conditions in the study area. In addition, a temporal change in AT during the last 30years was estimated and verified using available meteorological stations and two additional remote sensing platforms. Finally, the impact of different land coverage on AT were estimated, as an example of future application of the presented approach.

Detecting and analyzing soil phosphorus loss associated with critical source areas using a remote sensing approach

The detection of critical source areas (CSAs) is a key step in managing soil phosphorus (P) loss and preventing the long-term eutrophication of water bodies at regional scale. Most related studies, however, focus on a local scale, which prevents a clear understanding of the spatial distribution of CSAs for soil P loss at regional scale. Moreover, the continual, long-term variation in CSAs was scarcely reported. It is impossible to identify the factors driving the variation in CSAs, or to collect land surface information essential for CSAs detection, by merely using the conventional methodologies at regional scale. This study proposes a new regional-scale approach, based on three satellite sensors (ASTER, TM/ETM and MODIS), that were implemented successfully to detect CSAs at regional scale over 15years (2000-2014). The approach incorporated five factors (precipitation, slope, soil erosion, land use, soil total phosphorus) that drive soil P loss from CSAs. Results show that the average area of critical phosphorus source areas (CPSAs) was 15,056km² over the 15-year period, and it occupied 13.8% of the total area, with a range varying from 1.2% to 23.0%, in a representative, intensive agricultural area of China. In contrast to previous studies, we found that the locations of CSAs with P loss are spatially variable, and are more dispersed in their distribution over the long term. We also found that precipitation acts as a key driving factor in the variation of CSAs at regional scale. The regional-scale method can provide scientific guidance for managing soil phosphorus loss and preventing the long-term eutrophication of water bodies at regional scale, and shows great potential for exploring factors that drive the variation in CSAs at global scale.

Study on the association between ambient temperature and mortality using spatially resolved exposure data

There are many studies that have posited an association between extreme temperature and increased mortality. However, most studies use temperature at a single station per city as the reference point to analyze deaths. This leads to exposure misclassification and usually the exclusion of exurban, small town, and rural populations. In addition, few studies control for confounding by PM_2.5, which is expected to induce upward bias. The high-resolution temperature and PM_2.5 data at a resolution of 1km² were derived from satellite images and other land use sources. To capture the nonlinear association of temperature with mortality we fit a piecewise linear spline function for temperature, with a change in slope at -1°C and 28°C, the temperature threshold at which mortality in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina increases due to cold and heat, respectively. We conducted stratified analyses by age group, sex, race, education, and urban vs nonurban, as well as sensitivity analyses of different temperature threshold and covariate sets. We found a 0.19% (95% CI=-0.98, 1.34%) increase in mortality for each 1°C decrease in temperature below -1°C and a 2.05% (95% CI=0.87, 3.24%) increase in mortality for each 1°C increase in temperature above 28°C, a 79.8% larger effect size for heat compared to the station-based metric. The effect estimates relying on the monitoring stations were 0.09% (95% CI=-0.79, 0.95%) and 1.14% (95% CI=0.08, 1.57%) for the equivalent temperature changes. The estimates were not confounded by PM_2.5. Children under 15 years of age had the largest percentage increase per 1°C increase in temperature (8.19%, 95% CI=-0.38 to 17.49%) followed by Blacks (4.35%, 95% CI=2.22 to 6.53%). Higher education was a protective factor for the effect of extreme temperature on mortality. There was a suggestion that people in less urban areas were more susceptible to extreme temperature. The relationship between temperature and mortality was stronger when using exposure data with more spatial variability than using exposure data based on existing monitors alone.

Heat stroke admissions during heat waves in 1,916 US counties for the period from 1999 to 2010 and their effect modifiers

BACKGROUND

Heat stroke is a serious heat-related illness, especially among older adults. However, little is known regarding the spatiotemporal variation of heat stroke admissions during heat waves and what factors modify the adverse effects.

METHODS

We conducted a large-scale national study among 23.5 million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries per year residing in 1,916 US counties during 1999-2010. Heat wave days, defined as a period of at least two consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 97th percentile of that county's temperatures, were matched to non-heat wave days by county and week. We fitted random-effects Poisson regression models to estimate the relative risk (RR) of heat stroke admissions on a heat wave day as compared to a matched non-heat wave day. A variety of effect modifiers were tested including individual-level covariates, community-level covariates, meteorological conditions, and the intensity and duration of the heat wave event.

RESULTS

The RR declined substantially from 71.0 (21.3-236.2) in 1999 to 3.5 (1.9-6.5) in 2010, and was highest in the northeast and lowest in the west north central regions of the US. We found a lower RR among counties with higher central air conditioning (AC) prevalence. More severe and longer-lasting heat waves had higher RRs.

CONCLUSIONS

Heat stroke hospitalizations associated with heat waves declined dramatically over time, indicating increased resilience to extreme heat among older adults. Considerable risks, however, still remain through 2010, which could be addressed through public health interventions at a regional scale to further increase central AC and monitoring heat waves.

Chronic effects of temperature on mortality in the Southeastern USA using satellite-based exposure metrics

Climate change may affect human health, particularly for elderly individuals who are vulnerable to temperature changes. While many studies have investigated the acute effects of heat, only a few have dealt with the chronic ones. We have examined the effects of seasonal temperatures on survival of the elderly in the Southeastern USA, where a large fraction of subpopulation resides. We found that both seasonal mean temperature and its standard deviation (SD) affected long-term survival among the 13 million Medicare beneficiaries (aged 65+) in this region during 2000–2013. A 1 °C increase in summer mean temperature corresponded to an increase of 2.5% in death rate. Whereas, 1 °C increase in winter mean temperature was associated with a decrease of 1.5%. Increases in seasonal temperature SD also influence mortality. We decomposed seasonal mean temperature and its temperature SD into long-term geographic contrasts between ZIP codes and annual anomalies within ZIP code. Effect modifications by different subgroups were also examined to find out whether certain individuals are more vulnerable. Our findings will be critical to future efforts assessing health risks related to the future climate change.