Impacts of urbanization on the temperature-cardiovascular mortality relationship in Beijing, China

The synergistic effect of high temperature and relative humidity on non-accidental deaths at different urbanization levels

Numerous studies have examined the impact of temperature on mortality, yet research on the combined effect of temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths remains limited. This study investigates the synergistic impact of high temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths in China, assessing the influence of urban development and urbanization level. Utilizing the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) of quasi-Poisson regression, we analyzed the relationship between Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and non-accidental deaths in 30 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2016, including Guangzhou during 2012-2016. We stratified temperature and humidity across these cities to evaluate the influence of varying humidity levels on deaths under high temperatures. Then, we graded the duration of heat and humidity in these cities to assess the impact of deaths with different durations. Additionally, the cities were categorized based on gross domestic product (GDP), and a vulnerability index was calculated to examine the impact of urban development and urbanization level on non-accidental deaths. Our findings reveal a pronounced synergistic effect of high temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths, particularly at elevated humidity levels. The synergies of high temperature and humidity are extremely complex. Moreover, the longer the duration of high temperature and humidity, the higher the risk of non-accidental death. Furthermore, areas with higher urbanization exhibited lower relative risks (RR) associated with the synergistic effects of heat and humidity. Consequently, it is imperative to focus on damp-heat related mortality among vulnerable populations in less developed regions.

Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and temperature variability. This study aimed to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to future heat-related CVD burdens.

METHODS

Daily data on CVD mortality and temperature were collected in 161 Chinese communities from 2007 to 2013. The association between heat and CVD mortality was established using a two-stage time-series design. Under the natural forcing, human-induced, and combined scenarios, we then separately projected excess cause-/age-/region-/education-specific mortality from future high temperature in 2010-2100, assuming no adaptation and population changes.

FINDINGS

Under shared socioeconomic pathway with natural forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5-nat), heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths decreased slightly from 3.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.3, 5.8] in the 2010s to 2.8% (95% eCI: 0.1, 5.2) in the 2090s, with relative change of -0.4% (95% eCI: -0.8, 0.0). However, for combined natural and human-induced forcings, this estimate would surge to 8.9% (95% eCI: 1.5, 15.7), 14.4% (95% eCI: 1.5, 25.3), 21.3% (95% eCI: -0.6, 39.4), and 28.7% (95% eCI: -3.3, 48.0) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. When excluding the natural forcing, the number of human-induced heat-related CVD deaths would increase from approximately eight thousand (accounting for 31% of total heat-related CVD deaths) in the 2010s to 33,052 (68%), 63,283 (80%), 101,091 (87%), and 141,948 (90%) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Individuals with stroke, females, the elderly, people living in rural areas, and those with lower education level would exhibit heightened susceptibility to future high temperature. In addition, Southern and Eastern regions of China were expected to experience a faster increase in heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Human activities would significantly amplify the future burden of heat-related CVD. Our study findings suggested that active adaptation and mitigation measures towards future warming could yield substantial health benefits for the patients with CVD.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Patterns in acute aortic dissection and a connection to meteorological conditions in Germany

Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a dramatic emergency exhibiting a mortality of 50% within the first 48 hours if not operated. This study found an absolute value of cosine-like seasonal variation pattern for Germany with significantly fewer ATAAD events (Wilcoxon test) for the warm months of June, July, and August from 2005 to 2015. Many studies suspect a connection between ATAAD events and weather conditions. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and an objective weather type classification in a contingency table approach showed that for Germany, significantly more ATAAD events occurred during lower temperatures (by about 4.8 K), lower water vapor pressure (by about 2.6 hPa), and prevailing wind patterns from the northeast. In addition, we used data from a classification scheme for human-biometeorological weather conditions which was not used before in ATAAD studies. For the German region of Berlin and Brandenburg, for 2006 to 2019, the proportion of days with ATAAD events during weather conditions favoring hypertension (cold air advection, in the center of a cyclone, conditions with cold stress or thermal comfort) was significantly increased by 13% (Chi-squared test for difference of proportions). In contrast, the proportion was decreased by 19% for conditions associated with a higher risk for patients with hypotension and therefore a lower risk for patients with hypertension (warm air advection ahead of warm fronts, conditions with no thermal stress or heat stress, in the center of a cyclone with thermal stress). As many studies have shown that hypertension is a risk factor for ATAAD, our findings support the hypothesized relation between ATAAD and hypertension-favoring weather conditions.

Heat exposure assessment based on high-resolution spatio-temporal data of population dynamics and temperature variations

Urban heat waves pose a significant risk to the health and safety of city dwellers, with urbanization potentially amplifying the health impact of extreme heat. Accurate assessments of population heat exposure hinge on the interplay between temperature, population spatial dynamics, and the epidemiological effects of temperature on health. Yet, many past studies have over-simplified the matter by assuming static populations, leading to substantial inaccuracies in heat exposure assessments. To address these issues, this study integrates dynamic population data, fluctuating temperature, and the exposure-response relationship between temperature and health to construct an advanced heat exposure assessment framework predicated on a population dynamic model. We analyzed urban heat island characteristics, population dynamics, and heat exposure during heat wave conditions in Beijing, a major city in China. Our findings highlight significant intra-day population movement between urban and suburban areas during heat wave conditions, with spatial population flow patterns showing clear scale-dependent characteristics. These population flow dynamics intensify heat exposure levels, and the disparity between dynamic population-weighted temperature and average temperature is most pronounced at night. Our research provides a more comprehensive understanding of real urban population heat exposure levels and can furnish city administrators with more scientifically rigorous evidence.

Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China

Background

With the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces.

Methods

We employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field.

Results

This cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196.

Conclusion

The study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies.

Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality

This study utilizes China's records of non-accidental mortality along with twenty-five simulations from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections to evaluate forthcoming heat stress and heat-related mortality across China across four distinct scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate a projected escalation in the heat stress index (HSI) throughout China from 2031 to 2100. The most substantial increments compared to the baseline (1995-2014) are observed under SSP5-8.5, indicating a rise of 7.96°C by the year 2100, while under SSP1-2.6, the increase is relatively modest at 1.54°C. Disparities in HSI growth are evident among different subregions, with South China encountering the most significant elevation, whereas Northwest China exhibits the lowest increment. Projected future temperatures align closely with HSI patterns, while relative humidity is anticipated to decrease across the majority of areas. The study's projections indicate that China's heat-related mortality is poised to surpass present levels over the forthcoming decades, spanning a range from 215% to 380% from 2031 to 2100. Notably, higher emission scenarios correspond to heightened heat-related mortality. Additionally, the investigation delves into the respective contributions of humidity and temperature to shifts in heat-related mortality. At present, humidity exerts a greater impact on fluctuations in heat-related mortality within China and its subregions. However, with the projected increase in emissions and global warming, temperature is expected to assume a dominant role in shaping these outcomes. In summary, this study underscores the anticipated escalation of heat stress and heat-related mortality across China in the future. It highlights the imperative of emission reduction as a means to mitigate these risks and underscores the variances in susceptibility to heat stress across different regions.

Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada

OBJECTIVE

Climate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth.

METHODS

We used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios.

RESULTS

For 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging.

CONCLUSION

Canada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.

Methods in Public Health Environmental Justice Research: a Scoping Review from 2018 to 2021

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The volume of public health environmental justice (EJ) research produced by academic institutions increased through 2022. However, the methods used for evaluating EJ in exposure science and epidemiologic studies have not been catalogued. Here, we completed a scoping review of EJ studies published in 19 environmental science and epidemiologic journals from 2018 to 2021 to summarize research types, frameworks, and methods.

RECENT FINDINGS

We identified 402 articles that included populations with health disparities as a part of EJ research question and met other inclusion criteria. Most studies (60%) evaluated EJ questions related to socioeconomic status (SES) or race/ethnicity. EJ studies took place in 69 countries, led by the US (n = 246 [61%]). Only 50% of studies explicitly described a theoretical EJ framework in the background, methods, or discussion and just 10% explicitly stated a framework in all three sections. Among exposure studies, the most common area-level exposure was air pollution (40%), whereas chemicals predominated personal exposure studies (35%). Overall, the most common method used for exposure-only EJ analyses was main effect regression modeling (50%); for epidemiologic studies the most common method was effect modification (58%), where an analysis evaluated a health disparity variable as an effect modifier. Based on the results of this scoping review, current methods in public health EJ studies could be bolstered by integrating expertise from other fields (e.g., sociology), conducting community-based participatory research and intervention studies, and using more rigorous, theory-based, and solution-oriented statistical research methods.

Effects of pollen concentration on allergic rhinitis in children: A retrospective study from Beijing, a Chinese megacity

With global climate change and rapid urbanization, the prevalence of allergic diseases caused by pollen is rising dramatically worldwide with unprecedented complexity and severity, especially for children in mega-cities. However, because of the lack of long time-series pollen concentrations data, the accurate evaluation of the impact of pollen on allergic rhinitis (AR) was scarce in the Chinese metropolis. A generalized additive model was used to assess the effect of pollen concentration on pediatric AR outpatient visits in Beijing from 2014 to 2019. A stratified analysis of 10 pollen species and age-gender-specific groups was also conducted during the spring and summer-autumn peak pollen periods separately. Positive associations between pollen concentration and pediatric AR varied with the season and pollen species were detected. Although the average daily pollen concentration is higher during the spring tree pollen peak, the influence was stronger at the summer-autumn weed pollen peak with the maximum relative risk 1.010 (95% CI 1.009, 1.011), which was higher than the greatest relative risk, 1.003 (95% CI 1.002, 1.004) in the spring peak. The significant adverse effects can be sustained to lag10 during the study period, and longer in the summer-autumn peak (lag13) than in the spring peak (lag8). There are thresholds for the health effects and they varied between seasons. The significant effect appeared when the pollen concentration was higher than 3.74 × 105 grain·m-2·d-1 during the spring tree pollen peaks and 4.70 × 104 grain·m-2·d-1 during the summer-autumn weed pollen peaks. The stratified results suggested that the species-specific effects were heterogeneous. It further highlights that enough attention should be paid to the problem of pollen allergy in children, especially school-aged children aged 7-18 years and weed pollen in the summer-autumn peak pollen period. These findings provide a more accurate reference for the rational coordination of medical resources and improvement of public health.

Influence of different concentrations of ozone on the alteration of mitochondrial DNA copy numbers in human peripheral blood

By now, O₃ pollution has become a main environmental problem. O₃ is a prevalent risk factor for many diseases, but the regulatory factors linking O₃ and diseases remain ambiguous. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is the genetic material in mitochondria, which plays a key role in the production of respiratory ATP. Due to a lack of histone protection, mtDNA is easily damaged by ROS, and O₃ is an important source to stimulate the production of endogenous ROS in vivo. Therefore, we logically speculate that O₃ exposure can alter mtDNA copy number by the induction of ROS. In the present study, we performed a panel study of 65 MSc students at the Chinese research academy of environmental sciences (CRAES) with 3 rounds of follow-up visits from August 2021 to January 2022. We examined the mtDNA copy numbers in the peripheral blood of subjects using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Linear mixed-effect (LME) model and stratified analysis were used to investigate the association between O₃ exposure and mtDNA copy numbers. We found a dynamic process of the association between the concentration of O₃ exposure and the mtDNA copy number in the peripheral blood. The lower concentration of O₃ exposure did not affect the mtDNA copy number. As the concentration of O₃ exposure increased, the mtDNA copy number also increased. While, when O₃ exposure reached a certain concentration, a decrease in mtDNA copy number was found. This correlation between the concentration of O₃ and the mtDNA copy number could be ascribed to the severity of cellular damage induced by O₃ exposure. Our results provide a new perspective for the discovery of a biomarker of O₃ exposure and health response, as well as for the prevention and treatment of adverse health effects caused by different concentrations of O₃.

Influence of Urbanization on the Spatial Distribution of Associations Between Air Pollution and Mortality in Beijing, China

This study investigated the influence of urbanization on the intra-city spatial distribution of associations between air pollution and mortality in Beijing, China. First, we utilized the generalized additive model to establish the exposure-response associations of PM2.5, O3, with nonaccidental and cardiorespiratory mortality between urban and suburban areas. Second, we assessed district-specific air pollution-related mortality and analyzed how these associations were affected by the degree of urbanization. Finally, we analyzed the changes in air pollution-related mortality before and after the enforcement of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (referred to as the Action Plan). The effect estimates of PM2.5 for nonaccidental mortality were 0.20% (95% CI: 0.12-0.28) in urban areas and 0.46% (95% CI: 0.35-0.58) in suburban areas per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations. The corresponding estimates of O3 were 0.13% (95% CI: -0.04-0.29) in urban areas and 0.34% (95% CI: 0.12-0.56) in suburban areas per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentrations; however, the difference between the estimates of O3 in urban and suburban areas was not statistically significant. The district-specific results suggested that the estimated risks increased along with urban vulnerability levels for the effects of PM2.5. Implementing the Action Plan reduced the mortality risks of PM2.5, but the risks of O3 increased in some districts. However, the difference in the estimates between the pre- and post-emission reductions was not statistically significant. Our study indicated that populations living in less urbanized areas are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of air pollution in Beijing, particularly for PM2.5.

Coupling coordination analysis of urbanization and the ecological environment based on urban functional zones

Urbanization is an inevitable process in human social progress; additionally, the ecological environment is the carrier and foundation of human social development. Considering central Shanghai, China, as an example, this study quantitatively analyzed the coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and the ecological environment based on urban functional zones; remote sensing images, Open Street Map roads, and point of interest data were analyzed for the urban functional zones via the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI), comprehensive nighttime light index (CNLI), and coupling coordination degree (D). The results revealed that urban functional zones in central Shanghai were mainly mixed functional zones and comprehensive functional zones, which formed a spatial structure that gradually radiated outward from the urban core. Additionally, CNLI values were high; the proportion of CNLI between 0.6 and 1 was 94.37%. Moreover, the RSEI showed spatial differentiation; it was low in the center and gradually increased outward. Additionally, D was at the primary coordination level. The coupling coordination type in the core area corresponded to an ecological environment lag, which gradually transitioned to a state of systematic balanced development from the core area outward, but showed sluggish urbanization in some areas. This quantitative analysis of the coupling coordination between urbanization and the ecological environment based on urban functional zones provides effective scientific references for optimization of spatial planning.

The influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza activity in China

Previous research has extensively studied the seasonalities of human influenza infections and the effect of specific climatic factors in different regions. However, there is limited understanding of the influences of monsoons. This study applied generalized additive model with monthly surveillance data from mainland China to explore the influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza in China. The results suggested two influenza active periods in northern China and three active periods in southern China. The study found that the northerly advancement of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) influences the summer influenza spatio-temporal patterns in both southern and northern China. At the interannual scale, the north-south converse effect of EASM on influenza activity is mainly due to the converse effect of EASM on humidity and precipitation. Within the annual scale, influenza activity in southern China gradually reaches its maximum during the summer exacerbated by the northerly advancement of EASM. Furthermore, the winter epidemic in China is related to the low temperature and humidity influenced by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Moreover, the active period in transition season is related partially to the large rapid temperature change influenced by the transition of EAWM and EASM. Despite the delayed onset and instability, the climatic condition influenced by the East Asian Monsoon is one of the potential key drivers of influenza activity.

Modification effects of ambient temperature on ozone-mortality relationships in Chengdu, China

A multitude of epidemiological studies have demonstrated that both ambient temperatures and air pollution are closely related to health outcomes. However, whether temperature has modification effects on the association between ozone and health outcomes is still debated. In this study, three parallel time-series Poisson generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to examine the effects of modifying ambient temperatures on the association between ozone and mortality (including non-accidental, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality) in Chengdu, China, from 2014 to 2016. The results confirmed that the ambient high temperatures strongly amplified the adverse effects of ozone on human mortality; specifically, the ozone effects were most pronounced at > 28 °C. Without temperature stratification conditions, a 10-μg/m³ increase in the maximum 8-h average ozone (O_3-8hmax) level at lag01 was associated with increases of 0.40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15%, 0.65%), 0.61% (95% CI 0.27%, 0.95%), and 0.69% (95% CI 0.34%, 1.04%) in non-accidental, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. On days during which the temperature exceeded 28 °C, a 10-μg/m³ increase in O_3-8hmax led to increases of 2.22% (95% CI 1.21%, 3.23%), 2.67% (95% CI 0.57%, 4.76%), and 4.13% (95% CI 2.34%, 5.92%) in non-accidental, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Our findings validated that high temperature could further aggravate the health risks of O_3-8hmax; thus, mitigating ozone exposure will be brought into the limelight especially under the context of changing climate.

Projections of future temperature-related cardiovascular mortality under climate change, urbanization and population aging in Beijing, China

Climate change is causing the surface temperature to rise and the extreme weather events to increase in frequency and intensity, which will pose potential threats to the survival and health of residents. Beijing is facing multiple challenges such as coping with climate change, urbanization, and population aging, which puts huge decision-making pressure on decision maker. However, few studies that systematically consider the health effects of climate change, urbanization, and population aging for China. Based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and 13 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study obtained the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature through statistical downscaling methods, and comprehensively explored the independent and comprehensive effects of urbanization and population aging on the projection of future temperature-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the context of climate and population change. The results showed that only improving urbanization can reduce future temperature-related CVD mortality by 1.7-18.3%, and only intensified aging can increase future temperature-related CVD mortality by 48.8-325.9%. Taking into account the improving urbanization and intensified aging, future temperature-related CVD mortality would increase by 44.1-256.6%, and the increase was slightly lower than that of only intensified aging. Therefore, the intensified aging was the biggest disadvantage in tackling climate change, which would obviously magnify the mortality risks of temperature-related CVD in the future. Although the advancement of urbanization would alleviate the adverse effects of the intensified aging population, the mitigation effects would be limited. Even so, Urbanization should be continued to reduce health risks for residents. These findings would contribute to formulate policies related to mitigate climate change and reduce baseline mortality rate (especially the elderly) in international mega-city - Beijing. In addition, relevant departments should improve the medical health care level and optimize the allocation of social resources to better cope with and adapt to climate change.

The effect of ambient temperature on in-hospital mortality: a study in Nanjing, China

To reduce the inpatient mortality and improve the quality of hospital management, we explore the relationship between temperatures and in-hospital mortality in a large sample across 10 years in Nanjing, Jiangsu. We collected 10 years’ data on patient deaths from a large research hospital. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to find the association between daily mean temperatures and in-hospital mortality. A total of 6160 in-hospital deaths were documented. Overall, peak RR appeared at 8 °C, with the range of 1 to 20 °C having a significantly high mortality risk. In the elderly (age ≥ 65 years), peak RR appeared at 5 °C, with range − 3 to 21 °C having a significantly high mortality risk. In males, peak RR appeared at 8 °C, with the range 0 to 24 °C having a significantly high mortality risk. Moderate cold (define as 2.5th percentile of daily mean temperatures to the MT), not extreme temperatures (≤ 2.5th percentile or ≥ 97.5th percentile of daily mean temperatures), increased the risk of death in hospital patients, especially in elderly and male in-hospital patients.

Short-term effect of fine particulate matter and ozone on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality in Lishui district, China

Background

In recent years, air pollution has become an imminent problem in China. Few studies have investigated the impact of air pollution on the mortality of the middle-aged and elderly people. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the impact of PM_2.5 (fine particulate matter) and O₃ (ozone) on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality of the middle-aged and elderly people in Lishui District of Nanjing and provide the evidence for potential prevention and control measures of air pollution.

Method

Using daily mortality and atmospheric monitoring data from 2015 to 2019, we applied a generalized additive model with time-series analysis to evaluate the association of PM_2.5 and O₃ exposure with daily non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality in Lishui District. Using the population attributable fractions to estimate the death burden caused by short-term exposure to O₃ and PM_2.5。.

Result

For every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, non-accidental mortality increased 0.94% with 95% confidence interval (CI) between 0.05 and 1.83%, and PM_2.5 had a more profound impact on females than males. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃, respiratory mortality increased 1.35% (95% CI: 0.05, 2.66%) and O₃ had a more profound impact on males than females. Compared with the single pollutant model, impact of the two-pollutant model on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality slightly decreased. In summer and winter as opposed to the other seasons, O₃ had a more obvious impact on non-accidental mortality. The population attributable fractions of non-accidental mortality were 0.84% (95% CI:0.00, 1.63%) for PM_2.5 and respiratory mortality were 0.14% (95% CI:0.01, 0.26%) for O₃. For every 10 μg/m³ decrease in PM_2.5, 122 (95% CI: 6, 237) non-accidental deaths could be avoided. For every 10 μg/m³ decrease in O₃, 10 (95% CI: 1, 38) respiratory deaths could be avoided.

Conclusion

PM_2.5 and O₃ could significantly increase the risk of non-accidental and respiratory mortality in the middle-aged and elderly people in Lishui District of Nanjing. Exposed to air pollutants, men were more susceptible to O₃ damage, and women were more susceptible to PM_2.5 damage. Reduction of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentration in the air may have the potential to avoid considerable loss of lives.

Selecting Thresholds of Heat-Warning Systems with Substantial Enhancement of Essential Population Health Outcomes for Facilitating Implementation

Most heat-health studies identified thresholds just outside human comfort zones, which are often too low to be used in heat-warning systems for reducing climate-related health risks. We refined a generalized additive model for selecting thresholds with substantial health risk enhancement, based on Taiwan population records of 2000–2017, considering lag effects and different spatial scales. Reference-adjusted risk ratio (RaRR) is proposed, defined as the ratio between the relative risk of an essential health outcome for a threshold candidate against that for a reference; the threshold with the highest RaRR is potentially the optimal one. It was found that the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a more sensitive heat-health indicator than temperature. At lag 0, the highest RaRR (1.66) with WBGT occurred in emergency visits of children, while that in hospital visits occurred for the working-age group (1.19), presumably due to high exposure while engaging in outdoor activities. For most sex, age, and sub-region categories, the RaRRs of emergency visits were higher than those of hospital visits and all-cause mortality; thus, emergency visits should be employed (if available) to select heat-warning thresholds. This work demonstrates the applicability of this method to facilitate the establishment of heat-warning systems at city or country scales by authorities worldwide.