The impact of first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in society: comparative analysis to support control measures to cope with negative effects of future infectious diseases

Bloodstream infections in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic: Changing epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance in the intensive care unit

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic increased the burden of critically ill patients who required hospitalization in the intensive care unit (ICU). Bacterial and fungal co-infections, including bloodstream infections (BSIs), increased significantly in ICU patients with COVID-19; this had a significant negative impact on patient outcomes. Reported data pertaining to BSI episodes from the ICU setting during the COVID-19 pandemic were collected and analyzed for this narrative review. We searched the PubMed database for articles published between March 2020 and October 2023; the terms "COVID-19" AND "bloodstream infections" AND "ICU" were used for the search. A total of 778 articles were retrieved; however, only 27 were exclusively related to BSIs in ICU patients with COVID-19. Data pertaining to the epidemiological characteristics, risk factors, characteristics of bacterial and fungal BSIs, patterns of antimicrobial resistance, and comparisons between ICU and non-ICU patients during and before the COVID-19 pandemic were obtained. Data on antimicrobial stewardship and infection-control policies were also included. The rates of BSI were found to have increased among ICU patients with COVID-19 than in non-COVID-19 patients and those admitted during the pre-pandemic period. Male gender, 60-70 years of age, increased body mass index, high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores at admission, prolonged hospital and ICU stay, use of central lines, invasive ventilation, and receipt of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation were all defined as risk factors for BSI. The use of immune modulators for COVID-19 appeared to increase the risk of BSI; however, the available data are conflicting. Overall, Enterococci, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Candida spp. emerged as prominent infecting organisms during the pandemic; along with Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa they had a significant impact on mortality. Multidrug-resistant organisms prevailed in the ICU, especially if antimicrobial resistance was established before the COVID-19 pandemic and were significantly associated with increased mortality rates. The unnecessary and widespread use of antibiotics further increased the prevalence of multidrug-resistant organisms during COVID-19. Notably, the data indicated a significant increase in contaminants in blood cultures; this highlighted the decline in compliance with infection-control measures, especially during the initial waves of the pandemic. The implementation of infection-control policies along with antibiotic stewardship succeeded in significantly reducing the rates of blood contamination and BSI pathogens. BSIs considerably worsened outcomes in patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to ICUs. Further studies are needed to evaluate adequate preventive and control measures that may increase preparedness for the future.

Student nurses' experiences of remote learning during Covid-19 pandemic: A qualitative evidence synthesis

AIM

To systematically synthesize undergraduate student nurses' experience of online, blended or distance learning during Covid-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

A qualitative evidence synthesis (QES).

REVIEW METHODS

A QES. Themes were organized using the 'best fit' framework approach. Methodological limitations and confidence in the review findings were informed by GRADE-CERQual (Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research).

DATA SOURCES

Qualitative literature from five databases including CINAHL, PubMed, Medline, Education Full Text (H.W. Wilson) and ERIC were searched from March 2020 to November 2021.

RESULTS

Nine qualitative and two mixed method studies were included in this 'best fit' framework using Chickering and Gamson's Seven Principles for Good Practice in Undergraduate Education. Importance of the social presence of the teacher through effective communication and interpersonal relationships is highlighted. Clinical placement and in-person practical skills training are needed for effective nursing education.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlighted that online content can be developed into efficient and high-quality learner-centred education within blended undergraduate nursing programmes incorporating essential face-to-face and practical components. Various supporting measures are required for both students and faculty. We suggest an adaptation of a 'Blending with Purpose: The Multimodal Model' with key considerations for undergraduate nursing programmes where pedagogical objectives and activities drive the approaches to achieve intended learning outcomes and student satisfaction.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION

Well-designed online programmes using digital tools that support interaction and teamwork are required for undergraduate nursing education.

IMPACT

Blended learning approaches offer more flexibility than online learning alone which leads to improved student engagement. Clinical placement and in-person practical skills training are needed for effective nursing education. REPORTING METHOD: 'Enhancing transparency in reporting the synthesis of qualitative research' (ENTREQ) for QES.

NO PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No Patient or Public Contribution.

Negative effects of high public debt on health systems facing pandemic crisis: Lessons from COVID-19 in Europe to prepare for future emergencies

The investigation goal here was to analyze how the level of public debt affects preparedness of health systems to face emergencies. In particular, this study examined the negative effects of high public debt on health systems of European countries in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Empirical evidence revealed that European countries with a lower level of government debt as a percentage of GDP both in 2009 and 2019 (the period before the arrival of the pandemic) had lower COVID-19 fatality rates compared to countries with higher levels of public debt. The explanation is that high levels of public debt in countries trigger budget constraints that limit their ability to allocate resources to healthcare systems (e.g., health expenditures and investments), weakening health system performance and causing systemic vulnerability and lower preparedness during emergencies, such as with the COVID-19 pandemic. Implications of health policies are suggested to improve strategies of crisis management.

Coping style and mental health amid the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a culture-moderated meta-analysis of 44 nations

In the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid transmission of a novel virus and the unprecedented disease-mitigation measures have elicited considerable stress in many countries worldwide. Coping with pandemic stress may be differentially related to psychological symptoms across countries characterised by distinct cultural values. This study aimed to: (a) synthesise the literature by investigating the associations between some major types of coping style and psychological symptoms, and (b) investigate the moderating effects of culture on these associations. We performed a three-level random-effects meta-analysis, which included 151 independent samples from 44 countries across eight world regions (n = 137,088, 66% women, Mage = 36.08). For both problem-focused and avoidant coping styles, their hypothesised associations with psychological symptoms were robust across the countries (anxiety: rs = -.11 and .31; depression: rs = -.19 and .33; ps < .0001). For both emotion-focused and social support seeking styles, their associations with psychological symptoms were moderated by two Hofstede's cultural dimensions: uncertainty avoidance (intolerance of ambiguity) and masculinity (concern for achievement and success). The hypothesised negative coping style-symptom associations were found only in the countries with lower levels of uncertainty avoidance or masculinity, but opposite patterns of findings were found in those with higher levels of either of these two cultural dimensions.

COVID-19 pandemic waves: Identification and interpretation of global data

The mention of the COVID-19 waves is as prevalent as the pandemic itself. Identifying the beginning and end of the wave is critical to evaluating the impact of various COVID-19 variants and the different pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical (including economic, health and social, etc.) interventions. We demonstrate a scientifically robust method to identify COVID-19 waves and the breaking points at which they begin and end from January 2020 to June 2021. Employing the Break Least Square method, we determine the significance of COVID-19 waves for global-, regional-, and country-level data. The results show that the method works efficiently in detecting different breaking points. Identifying these breaking points is critical for evaluating the impact of the economic, health, social and other welfare interventions implemented during the pandemic crisis. Employing our method with high frequency data effectively determines the start and end points of the COVID-19 wave(s). Identifying waves at the country level is more relevant than at the global or regional levels. Our research results evidenced that the COVID-19 wave takes about 48 days on average to subside once it begins, irrespective of the circumstances.

Identifying spatiotemporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater: from the perspective of upstream and downstream wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE)

Recently, many efforts have been made to address the rapid spread of newly identified COVID-19 virus variants. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is considered a potential early warning tool for identifying the rapid spread of this virus. This study investigated the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in eight wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and their sewerage systems which serve most of the population in Taoyuan City, Taiwan. Across the entire study period, the wastewater viral concentrations were correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases in each WWTP (Spearman's r = 0.23-0.76). In addition, it is confirmed that several treatment technologies could effectively eliminate the virus RNA from WWTP influent (> 90%). On the other hand, further results revealed that an inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation and hotspot model combined with the geographic information system (GIS) method could be applied to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater from the sewer system. In addition, socio-economic factors, namely, population density, land use, and income tax were successfully identified as the potential drivers which substantially affected the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan. Finally, the data obtained from this study can provide a powerful tool in public health decision-making not only in response to the current epidemic situation but also to other epidemic issues in the future.

COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic showed distinct waves where cases ebbed and flowed. While each country had slight, nuanced differences, lessons from each wave with country-specific details provides important lessons for prevention, understanding medical outcomes and the role of vaccines. This paper compares key characteristics from the five different COVID-19 waves in Pakistan.

METHODS

Data was sourced from daily national situation reports (Sitreps) prepared by the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) in Islamabad. We use specific criteria to define COVID-19 waves. The start of each COVID-19 wave is marked by the day of the lowest number of daily cases preceding a sustained increase, while the end is the day with the lowest number of cases following a 7-days decline, which should be lower than the 7 days following it. Key variables such as COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths with their rates of change to the peak and then to the trough are used to draw descriptive comparisons. Additionally, a linear regression model estimates daily new COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan.

RESULTS

Pakistan saw five distinct waves, each of which displayed the typical topology of a complete infectious disease epidemic. The time from wave-start to peak became progressively shorter, and from wave-peak to trough, progressively longer. Each wave appears to also be getting shorter, except for wave 4, which lasted longer than wave 3. A one percent increase in vaccinations decreased deaths by 0.38% (95% CI: -0.67, -0.08) in wave 5 and the association is statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Each wave displayed distinct characteristics that must be interpreted in the context of the level of response and the variant driving the epidemic. Key indicators suggest that COVID-19 preventive measures kept pace with the disease. Waves 1 and 2 were mainly about prevention and learning how to clinically manage patients. Vaccination started late during wave 3 and its impact on hospitalizations and deaths became visible in wave 5. The impact of highly virulent strains Alpha/B.1.1.7 and Delta/B.1.617.2 variants during wave 3 and milder but more infectious Omicron/B.1.1.529 during wave 5 are apparent.

Critically ill patients with COVID-19-associated acute kidney injury treated with kidney replacement therapy: Comparison between the first and second pandemic waves in São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to compare the characteristics and outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) who were treated with kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in the first and second waves of the pandemic in the megalopolis of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective study was conducted in 10 intensive care units (ICUs). Patients aged ≥18 years, and treated with KRT due to COVID-19-associated AKI were included. We compared demographic, laboratory and clinical data, KRT parameters and patient outcomes in the first and second COVID-19 waves.

RESULTS

We assessed 656 patients (327 in the first wave and 329 in the second one). Second-wave patients were admitted later (7.1±5.0 vs. 5.6±3.9 days after the onset of symptoms, p<0.001), were younger (61.4±13.7 vs. 63.8±13.6 years, p = 0.023), had a lower frequency of diabetes (37.1% vs. 47.1%, p = 0.009) and obesity (29.5% vs. 40.0%, p = 0.007), had a greater need for vasopressors (93.3% vs. 84.6%, p<0.001) and mechanical ventilation (95.7% vs. 87.8%, p<0.001), and had higher lethality (84.8% vs. 72.7%, p<0.001) than first-wave patients. KRT quality markers were independently associated with a reduction in the OR for death in both pandemic waves.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Sao Paulo megalopolis, the lethality of critically ill patients with COVID-19-associated AKI treated with KRT was higher in the second wave of the pandemic, despite these patients being younger and having fewer comorbidities. Potential factors related to this poor outcome were difficulties in health care access, lack of intra-hospital resources, delay vaccination and virus variants.

The changing contributory role to infections of work, public transport, shopping, hospitality and leisure activities throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England and Wales

Background

Understanding how non-household activities contributed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections under different levels of national health restrictions is vital.

Methods

Among adult Virus Watch participants in England and Wales, we used multivariable logistic regressions and adjusted-weighted population attributable fractions (aPAF) assessing the contribution of work, public transport, shopping, and hospitality and leisure activities to infections.

Results

Under restrictions, among 17,256 participants (502 infections), work [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01 (1.65-2.44), (aPAF) 30% (22-38%)] and transport [(aOR 1.15 (0.94-1.40), aPAF 5% (-3-12%)], were risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 but shopping, hospitality and leisure were not. Following the lifting of restrictions, among 11,413 participants (493 infections), work [(aOR 1.35 (1.11-1.64), aPAF 17% (6-26%)] and transport [(aOR 1.27 (1.04-1.57), aPAF 12% (2-22%)] contributed most, with indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.21 (0.98-1.48), aPAF 7% (-1-15%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.24 (1.02-1.51), aPAF 10% (1-18%)] increasing. During the Omicron variant, with individuals more socially engaged, among 11,964 participants (2335 infections), work [(aOR 1.28 (1.16-1.41), aPAF (11% (7-15%)] and transport [(aOR 1.16 (1.04-1.28), aPAF 6% (2-9%)] remained important but indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.43 (1.26-1.62), aPAF 20% (13-26%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.35 (1.22-1.48), aPAF 10% (7-14%)] dominated.

Conclusions

Work and public transport were important to transmissions throughout the pandemic with hospitality and leisure's contribution increasing as restrictions were lifted, highlighting the importance of restricting leisure and hospitality alongside advising working from home, when facing a highly infectious and virulent respiratory infection.

Waves in time, but not in space - an analysis of pandemic severity of COVID-19 in Germany

While pandemic waves are often studied on the national scale, they typically are not distributed evenly within countries. This study presents a novel approach to analyzing the spatial-temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. By using a composite indicator of pandemic severity and subdividing the pandemic into fifteen phases, we were able to identify similar trajectories of pandemic severity among all German counties through hierarchical clustering. Our results show that the hotspots and cold spots of the first four waves were relatively stationary in space. This highlights the importance of examining pandemic waves on a regional scale to gain a more comprehensive understanding of their dynamics. By combining spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clustering of time series, we were able to identify important patterns of regional anomalies, which can help target more effective public health interventions on a regional scale.

Cost of the COVID-19 pandemic versus the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies in EU/UK/OECD: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The economic burden of COVID-19 pandemic is substantial, with both direct and indirect costs playing a significant role.

DESIGN

A systematic literature review was conducted to estimate the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical or non-pharmaceutical interventions. All cost data were adjusted to the 2021 Euro, and interventions compared with null.

DATA SOURCES

Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 2020 through 22 April 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies regarding COVID-19 outbreak or public health preparedness measures or interventions with outcome measures related to the direct and indirect costs for disease and preparedness and/or response in countries of the European Union (EU), the European Economic Area (EEA), the UK and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) of all relevant epidemiological designs which estimate cost within the selected time frame were considered eligible.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Studies were searched, screened and coded independently by two reviewers with high measure of inter-rater agreement. Data were extracted to a predefined data extraction sheet. The risk of bias was assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria checklist.

RESULTS

We included data from 41 economic studies. Ten studies evaluated the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 31 assessed the cost-benefit of public health surveillance, preparedness and response measures. Overall, the economic burden of the COVID-19 pandemic was found to be substantial. Community screening, bed provision policies, investing in personal-protective-equipment and vaccination strategies were cost-effective. Physical distancing measures were associated with health benefits; however, their cost-effectiveness was dependent on the duration, compliance and the phase of the epidemic in which it was implemented.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 pandemic is associated with substantial short-term and long-term economic costs to healthcare systems, payers and societies, while interventions including testing and screening policies, vaccination and physical distancing policies were identified as those presenting cost-effective options to deal with the pandemic, dependent on population vaccination and the Re at the stage of the pandemic.

COVID-19 in Bangladesh: Wave-centric assessments and mitigation measures for future pandemics

The ongoing pandemic COVID-19 caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has wreaked havoc globally by affecting millions of lives. Although different countries found the implementation of emergency measures useful to combat the viral pandemic, many countries are still experiencing the resurgence of COVID-19 cases with new variants even after following strict containment guidelines. Country-specific lessons learned from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic can be utilized in commencing a successful battle against the potential future outbreaks. In this article, we analyzed the overall scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh from Alpha to Omicron variant and discussed the demographic, political, economic, social, and environmental influences on the mitigation strategies employed by the country to combat the pandemic. We also tried to explore the preparedness and precautionary measures taken by the responsible authorities, the choice of strategies implemented, and the effectiveness of the response initiated by the government and relevant agencies. Finally, we discussed the possible strategies that might help Bangladesh to combat future COVID-19 waves and other possible pandemics based on the experiences gathered from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of first and second/third wave of COVID-19 pandemic on post-acute cardiovascular outcomes in Lombardy

Background

COVID-19 has been associated with a higher risk of post-acute complications. Our aim was to analyze and compare post-acute cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 survivors of the first and second/third pandemic waves in Lombardy, in both hospitalized and non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Methods and results

We included adults aged ≥40 years infected during the first and second/third waves of COVID-19 pandemic. The follow-up initiated 30 days after COVID-19 diagnosis and continued up to 9 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the post-acute cardiovascular outcomes were calculated against an inverse probability treatment weighted control group. Subgroup analysis were performed by age classes, sex, previous cardiovascular disease and stratified by COVID-19 hospitalization status to explore the impact of COVID-19 severity on outcomes. Compared to the control group, COVID-19 patients had an increased risk of hospitalization for any cardiovascular complications (HR 1st wave 1.53 95% CI: 1.38-1.69; HR 2nd/3rd wave 1.25 95% CI: 1.19-1.31) and for individual cardiovascular outcomes, although HRs were higher in COVID-19 group from the 1st pandemic wave. The results were confirmed in the subgroup analyses. Of note, the risk for any cardiovascular disease was also evident even among individuals who were not hospitalized during the acute phase of the infection.

Conclusion

Our results provide evidence that COVID-19 is a risk factor for post-acute cardiovascular complications among different pandemic waves regardless of COVID-19 severity, age, sex and a history of cardiovascular diseases. Care strategies of people with COVID-19 should include cardiac monitoring.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit during the first and second waves of the pandemic in Brazil: a single-center retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe and compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to intensive care units during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this retrospective single-center cohort study, data were retrieved from the Epimed Monitor System; all adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit between March 4, 2020, and October 1, 2021, were included in the study. We compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a quaternary private hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, during the first (May 1, 2020, to August 31, 2020) and second (March 1, 2021, to June 30, 2021) waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

In total, 1,427 patients with COVID-19 were admitted to the intensive care unit during the first (421 patients) and second (1,006 patients) waves. Compared with the first wave group [median (IQR)], the second wave group was younger [57 (46-70) versus 67 (52-80) years; p<0.001], had a lower SAPS 3 Score [45 (42-52) versus 49 (43-57); p<0.001], lower SOFA Score on intensive care unit admission [3 (1-6) versus 4 (2-6); p=0.018], lower Charlson Comorbidity Index [0 (0-1) versus 1 (0-2); p<0.001], and were less frequently frail (10.4% versus 18.1%; p<0.001). The second wave group used more noninvasive ventilation (81.3% versus 53.4%; p<0.001) and high-flow nasal cannula (63.2% versus 23.0%; p<0.001) during their intensive care unit stay. The intensive care unit (11.3% versus 10.5%; p=0.696) and in-hospital mortality (12.3% versus 12.1%; p=0.998) rates did not differ between both waves.

CONCLUSION

In the first and second waves, patients with severe COVID-19 exhibited similar mortality rates and need for invasive organ support, despite the second wave group being younger and less severely ill at the time of intensive care unit admission.

Universal health coverage mitigated COVID-19 health-related consequences in Asia Oceania

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a continual challenge since 2020, and it continues to impact people and industries as a disaster caused by a biological hazard. This study examined universal health coverage (UHC) scores in relation to the performance in combating COVID-19 in the Southeast Asian region (SEAR) and the Western Pacific region (WPR), along with the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR) index under the international health regulations (IHC). The numbers of infections and deaths per million population from December 2019 to June 2022 were used as primary outcomes to measure countries' performance. Countries with UHC scores of 63 or higher had a significantly lower number of infected patients and deaths. In addition, several inter-capacity correlations within the SPAR capacities, including with C8 (the National Health Emergency Framework), as well as a very strong correlation to C4 (Food Safety), C5 (Laboratory), and C7 (Human Resources). Furthermore, C9 (Health Service Provisions) has a very strong correlation to C1 (Legislation and Financing), C2 (International Health Regulation Coordination and a National IHR Focal Point function), and C4 (Food Safety), suggesting that the capability to manage an emerging infectious disease form blocks of capacities. In conclusion, UHC clearly mitigated the health-related consequences of COVID-19 in South-East Asia Region (SEAR) and Western Pacific Region (WPR). Investigating the correlation between the SPAR capacities and UHC is a promising approach for future research, including the importance of the provision of health services, points of entry, and, most importantly, risk communications as critical factors for managing pandemic. This study constitutes a good opportunity to apply the SPAR index to define which capacities correlate with the outcome of the pandemic in terms of infections and deaths.

Modeling the effects of Prophylactic behaviors on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in West Africa

Various general and individual measures have been implemented to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 since its emergence in China. Several phenomenological and mechanistic models have been developed to inform and guide health policy. Many of these models ignore opinions about certain control measures, although various opinions and attitudes can influence individual actions. To account for the effects of prophylactic opinions on disease dynamics and to avoid identifiability problems, we expand the SIR-Opinion model of Tyson et al. (2020) to take into account the partial detection of infected individuals in order to provide robust modeling of COVID-19 as well as degrees of adherence to prophylactic treatments, taking into account a hybrid modeling technique using Richard's model and the logistic model. Applying the approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa demonstrates that the more people with a strong prophylactic opinion, the smaller the final COVID-19 pandemic size. The influence of individuals on each other and from the media significantly influences the susceptible population and, thus, the dynamics of the disease. Thus, when considering the opinion of susceptible individuals to the disease, the view of the population at baseline influences its dynamics. The results are expected to inform public policy in the context of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.

COVID-19 positive cases among asymptomatic individuals during the second wave in Ndola, Zambia

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide public health concern for healthcare workers. About 80% of cases appear to be asymptomatic, and about 3% may experience hospitalisation and later die. Less than 20% of studies have looked at the positivity rate of asymptomatic individuals.

Objective

This study investigated the COVID-19 positivity rates among asymptomatic individuals during the second COVID-19 wave at one of Zambia's largest testing centre.

Methods

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted on routine surveillance and laboratory data at the Tropical Diseases Research Centre COVID-19 laboratory in Ndola, Zambia, from 01 December 2020 to 31 March 2021. The study population was made up of persons that had tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection as a requirement for travel. Microsoft Excel was used to come up with an epidemiological curve of daily COVID-19 positive cases; proportions for gender were described using frequencies and percentages.

Results

A total of 11 144 asymptomatic individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2 were sampled for the study and 1781 (16.0%) returned positive results. The median age among those tested was 36 years (interquartile range: 29-46). Testing for COVID-19 peaked in the month of January 2021 (37.4%) and declined in March 2021 (21.0%). The epidemiological curve showed a combination of continuous and propagated point-source transmission.

Conclusion

The positivity rate of 16.0% among asymptomatic individuals was high and could imply continued community transmission, especially during January 2021 and February 2021. We recommend heightened testing for SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals.

What this study adds

This study adds critical knowledge to the transmission of COVID-19 among asymptomatic travellers who are usually a key population in driving community infection. This knowledge is critical in instituting evidence-based interventions in the screening and management of travellers, and its control.

A comparative analysis of the second and third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic: an experience from a tertiary care hospital in Western India

Introduction. As the world was still recovering from the 2020 pandemic, the devastating impact of Covid-19 driven by the Delta variant shook the world in 2021. As the second wave was declining, there was an unusual surge in Covid-19 positive cases by the end of 2021 which led to global concern about the change in virus characteristics.Hypothesis/gap statement. Whole genome sequencing is critical for understanding a rapidly progressing pandemic.Aim. To provide an insight into the major differences encountered in the changing characteristics between the second and third waves of the pandemic at a tertiary care hospital in India.Methods. A retrospective observational cohort analysis was conducted on Covid-positive patients during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic (from March 2021 to April 2021) and the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic (from December 2021 to January 2022).Results. Out of 303 Covid-19 positive cases, 52 samples were tested by whole genome sequencing during the second wave and 108 during the third wave. A decline of 18.5 % was observed in the case fatality rate from the second wave to the third wave. There was a 5 % decline in the number of patients admitted with ARDS and a 16.3 % decline in the number of patients with co-morbidities.In total, 51.9 percent of cases were due to the Delta variant during the second wave and 95 percent due to the Omicron variant during the third wave. We found that 36.5 % of Covid-positive patients during the second wave had been vaccinated compared to 40 % in the third wave.Conclusion. Whole genome sequencing of clinical samples from a wide range of individuals during a viral epidemic will enable us to develop a more rapid public health response to new variants and identify the required vaccine modifications more quickly.

A Tutorial on Modern Bayesian Methods in Clinical Trials

Clinical trials continue to be the gold standard for evaluating new medical technologies. New advancements in modern computation power have led to increasing interest in Bayesian methods. Despite the multiple benefits of Bayesian approaches, application to clinical trials has been limited. Based on insights from the survey of clinical researchers in drug development conducted by the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group (DIA BSWG), insufficient knowledge of Bayesian approaches was ranked as the most important perceived barrier to implementing Bayesian methods. Results of the same survey indicate that clinical researchers may find the interpretation of results from a Bayesian analysis to be more useful than conventional interpretations. In this article, we illustrate key concepts tied to Bayesian methods, starting with familiar concepts widely used in clinical practice before advancing in complexity, and use practical illustrations from clinical development.

Direct and spillover portfolio effects of COVID-19

This paper investigates the direct and spillover portfolio effects from the global outbreak of COVID-19. We find that an increase of the newly added cases of one specific country causes investors to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations in the outbreak countries (direct effect). Simultaneously, investors also decrease their allocations to other countries (spillover effect). In addition, we provide evidence and documentation that the transmission mechanism underlying foreign exposures matter to the above-mentioned portfolio effect. Moreover, we provide evidence for phase heterogeneity. The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has significant direct and spillover portfolio effects, but the impacts are weakened in second wave of the pandemic. The capital reallocation effect occurs only when the disease becomes global. Finally, our heterogeneities analysis shows that both local and spillover effects are mitigated when the economies are more developed and democratic and when the country has better health care facilities.

Meteorological, PM2.5 and PM10 factors on SARS-COV-2 transmission: The case of southern regions in Chile

There are several determinants of a population's health, including meteorological factors and air pollution. For example, it is well known that low temperatures and air pollution increase mortality rates in infant and elderly populations. With the emergence of SARS-COV-2, it is important to understand what factors contribute to its mitigation and control. There is some research in this area which shows scientific evidence on the virus's behavior in the face of these variables. This research aims to quantify the impact of climatic factors and environmental pollution on SARS-COV-2 specifically the effect on the number of new infections in different areas of Chile. At the local level, historical information available from the Department of Statistics and Health Information, the Chilean National Air Quality Information System, the Chilean Meteorological Directorate, and other databases will allow the generation of panel data suitable for the analysis. The results show the significant effect of pollution and climate variables measured in lags and will allow us to explain the behavior of the pandemic by identifying the relevant factors affecting health, using heteroskedastic models, which in turn will serve as a contribution to the generation of more effective and timely public policies for the control of the pandemic.

Study on optimization of multi-UAV nucleic acid sample delivery paths in large cities under the influence of epidemic environment

In the context of global novel coronavirus infection, we studied the distribution problem of nucleic acid samples, which are medical supplies with high urgency. A multi-UAV delivery model of nucleic acid samples with time windows and a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) dynamics model for multiple distribution centers is established by considering UAVs' impact cost and trajectory cost. The Golden Eagle optimization algorithm (SGDCV-GEO) based on gradient optimization and Corsi variation is proposed to solve the model by introducing gradient optimization and Corsi variation strategy in the Golden Eagle optimization algorithm. Performance evaluation by optimizing test functions, Friedman and Nemenyi test compared with Golden Jackal Optimization (GJO), Hunter-Prey Optimization (HPO), Pelican Optimization Algorithm (POA), Reptile Search Algorithm (RSA) and Golden Eagle Optimization (GEO), the convergence performance of SGDCV-GEO algorithm was demonstrated. Further, the improved RRT (Rapidly-exploring Random Trees) algorithm is used in the UAV path planning, and the pruning process and logistic chaotic mapping strategy are introduced in the path generation method. Finally, simulation experiments are conducted based on 8 hospitals and 50 randomly selected communities in the Pudong district of Shanghai, southern China. The experimental results show that the developed algorithm can effectively reduce the delivery cost and total delivery time compared with simulated annealing algorithm (SA), crow search algorithm (CSA), particle swarm algorithm (PSO), and taboo search algorithm (TS), and the developed algorithm has good uniformity, robustness, and high convergence accuracy, which can be effectively applied to the multi-UAV nucleic acid sample delivery path optimization in large cities under the influence of an epidemic environment.

Mountain spa rehabilitation improved health of patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome: pilot study

European Association of Spa Rehabilitation (ESPA) recommends spa rehabilitation for patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome. We tested the hypothesis that a high-altitude environment with clean air and targeted spa rehabilitation (MR - mountain spa rehabilitation) can contribute to the improving platelet mitochondrial bioenergetics, to accelerating patient health and to the reducing socioeconomic problems. Fifteen healthy volunteers and fourteen patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome were included in the study. All parameters were determined before MR (MR1) and 16-18 days after MR (MR2). Platelet mitochondrial respiration and OXPHOS were evaluated using high resolution respirometry method, coenzyme Q₁₀ level was determined by HPLC, and concentration of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) as a parameter of lipid peroxidation was determined spectrophotometrically. This pilot study showed significant improvement of clinical symptoms, lungs function, and regeneration of reduced CI-linked platelet mitochondrial respiration after MR in patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome. High-altitude environment with spa rehabilitation can be recommended for the acceleration of recovery of patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome.

Environment and COVID-19 incidence: A critical review

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented worldwide health crisis. Many previous research studies have found and investigated its links with one or some natural or human environmental factors. However, a review on the relationship between COVID-19 incidence and both the natural and human environment is still lacking. This review summarizes the inter-correlation between COVID-19 incidence and environmental factors. Based on keyword searching, we reviewed 100 relevant peer-reviewed articles and other research literature published since January 2020. This review is focused on three main findings. One, we found that individual environmental factors have impacts on COVID-19 incidence, but with spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty. Two, environmental factors exert interactive effects on COVID-19 incidence. In particular, the interactions of natural factors can affect COVID-19 transmission in micro- and macro- ways by impacting SARS-CoV-2 survival, as well as human mobility and behaviors. Three, the impact of COVID-19 incidence on the environment lies in the fact that COVID-19-induced lockdowns caused air quality improvement, wildlife shifts and socio-economic depression. The additional value of this review is that we recommend future research perspectives and adaptation strategies regarding the interactions of the environment and COVID-19. Future research should be extended to cover both the effects of the environment on the COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-19-induced impacts on the environment. Future adaptation strategies should focus on sustainable environmental and public policy responses.

Are mega-events super spreaders of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19? A look into Tokyo 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to improve preparedness of next international events

Tokyo Summer Olympics and Paralympics have raised social issues regarding the potential rise in COVID-19 cases in Japan and risks associated with the safe organization of mega sporting events during the pandemic, such as the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. This study investigates the Tokyo Summer Olympics as a unique case study to clarify the drivers of infectivity and provide guidelines to host countries for the safe organization of subsequent international sporting events. The result here reveals that Tokyo and Japan did not experience a rise in confirmed cases of COVID-19 due to the hosting of the Summer Olympics. Still, transmission dynamics seems to be mainly driven by the high density of population (about 1.2%, p-value <0.001) like other larger cities in Japan (result confirmed with Mann-Whitney U test, significance at 0.05). Our study provided evidence that hosting mega sporting events during this COVID-19 pandemic is safe if strictly maintained the precautions with non-pharmaceutical (and pharmaceutical) measures of control of infections. The Tokyo Summer Olympics hosting will be exemplary for next international events due to the successful implementation of preventive measures during COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

Five waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and green-blue spaces in urban and rural areas in Poland

Several waves of COVID-19 caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants have been recorded worldwide. During this period, many publications were released describing the influence of various factors, such as environmental, social and economic factors, on the spread of COVID-19. This paper presents the results of a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of the course of COVID-19 cases and deaths in five waves in Poland in relation to green‒blue spaces. The results, based on 380 counties, reveal that the negative correlation between the indicator of green‒blue space per inhabitant and the average daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths was clearly visible during all waves. These relationships were described by a power equation (coefficient of determination ranging from 0.83 to 0.88) with a high level of significance. The second important discovery was the fact that the rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths were significantly higher in urban counties (low values of the green-blue space indicator in m²/people) than in rural areas. The developed models can be used in decision-making by local government authorities to organize anti-COVID-19 prevention measures, including local lockdowns, especially in urban areas.

COVID-19 safe campus evaluation for universities by a hybrid interval type-2 fuzzy decision-making model

The fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected the whole world in recent years and has had devastating effects on all segments of society, has been one of the most important priorities. The Turkish Standards Institution has determined a checklist to contribute to developing safe and clean environments in higher education institutions in Turkey and to follow-up on infection control measures. However, this study is only a checklist that makes it necessary for decision-makers to make a subjective evaluation during the evaluation process, while the need to develop a more effective, systematic framework that takes into account the importance levels of multiple criteria has emerged. Therefore, this study applies the best-worst method under interval type-2 fuzzy set concept (IT2F-BWM) to determine the importance levels of criteria affecting the "COVID-19 safe campus" evaluation of universities in the context of global pandemic. A three-level hierarchy consisting of three main criteria, 11 sub-criteria, and 58 sub-criteria has been created for this aim. Considering the hierarchy, the most important sub-criterion was determined as periodic disinfection. The high contribution of the interval-valued type-2 fuzzy sets in expressing the uncertainty in the decision-makers' evaluations and the fact that BWM provides criterion weights with a mathematical optimization model that produces less pairwise comparisons and higher consistency are the main factors in choosing this approach. Simple additive weighting (SAW) has also been injected into the IT2F-BWM to determine the safety level of any university campus regarding COVID-19. Thus, decision-makers will be better prepared for the devastating effects of the pandemic by first improving the factors that are relatively important in the fight against the pandemic. In addition, a threshold value will be determined by considering all criteria, and it will prepare the ground for a road map for campuses. A case study is employed to apply the proposed model, and a comparison study is also presented with the Bayesian BWM to validate the results of the criteria weights.

How do temperature, humidity, and air saturation state affect the COVID-19 transmission risk?

Environmental parameters have a significant impact on the spread of respiratory viral diseases (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and air saturation state). T and RH are strongly correlated with viral inactivation in the air, whereas supersaturated air can promote droplet deposition in the respiratory tract. This study introduces a new concept, the dynamic virus deposition ratio (α), that reflects the dynamic changes in viral inactivation and droplet deposition under varying ambient environments. A non-steady-state-modified Wells-Riley model is established to predict the infection risk of shared air space and highlight the high-risk environmental conditions. Findings reveal that a rise in T would significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the cold season, while the effect is not significant in the hot season. The infection risk under low-T and high-RH conditions, such as the frozen seafood market, is substantially underestimated, which should be taken seriously. The study encourages selected containment measures against high-risk environmental conditions and cross-discipline management in the public health crisis based on meteorology, government, and medical research.

[Анализ влияния коморбидной сердечно-сосудистой патологии на течение и исходы COVID-19 у госпитализированных пациентов в первую и вторую волну пандемии в Евразийском регионе]

Цель:  Изучение особенностей клинического течения новой коронавирусной инфекции и  влияния сопутствующих заболеваний на исход заболевания у госпитализированных больных с инфекцией SARS-CoV-2 в первую и вторую волны пандемии.Методы и результаты.  Для оценки особенностей течения COVID-19 в Евразийском регионе были созданы международные регистры АКТИВ 1 и во время второй волны пандемии АКТИВ 2. Набор больных в регистр АКТИВ 1 проводили с 29.06.20 по 29.10.20, набрано 5 397 пациентов. Прием пациентов на учет в АКТИВ 2 проводили с 01.11.20 до 30.03.21, набрано 2 665 больных.Результаты. Госпитальная летальность снизилась в  период второй волны пандемии и  составила 4,8 % против 7,6 % в  период первой волны. В  период второй волны пациенты были старше, имели больше сопутствующих заболеваний и поступали в стационар в более тяжелом состоянии, пациенты имели более высокий уровень полиморбидности. В период второй волны пандемии увеличилась заболеваемость бактериальной пневмонией и сепсисом, но реже встречались тромбозы глубоких вен и «цитокиновый шторм». Наиболее неблагоприятными для прогноза смертности, как в первую, так и во вторую волны эпидемии были сочетания сопутствующих заболеваний: артериальная гипертензия (АГ) + хроническая сердечная недостаточность (ХСН) + сахарный диабет (СД) + ожирение, АГ + ишемическая болезнь сердца (ИБС) + ХСН + СД, АГ + ИБС + ХСН + ожирение.Заключение. У пациентов во вторую волну пандемии наблюдалось более обширное поражение ткани легких, чаще возникала фебрильная лихорадка, были выше уровни С-реактивного белка и  тропонина, ниже уровни гемоглобина и лимфоцитов. Это, вероятно, связано с различной тактикой госпитализации пациентов в первую и вторую волны пандемии в странах, принявших участие в формировании регистров АКТИВ 1 и АКТИВ 2.

Dying during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Sweden: Relatives' Experiences of End-of-Life Care (the CO-LIVE Study)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has seen many deaths, but the majority were for causes other than COVID-19. However, end-of-life care in all settings has been affected by measures limiting the spread of the virus, for patients with and without COVID-19. The Swedish coronavirus strategy was different compared to many other countries, which might have affected end-of-life care. The aim was to describe the experiences of end-of-life care for bereaved relatives in Sweden during the “first wave” and to compare the experiences for deaths due to COVID-19 with the experiences for deaths for other reasons. Methods: A random sample of addresses for 2400 people who died during March−September 2020 was retrieved from the Swedish Person Address Registry. Relatives were contacted with a questionnaire regarding their experience of end-of-life care, with a focus on communication, participation, and trust. Results: In total, 587 relatives (25% response rate) answered the questionnaire (14% COVID-19-deaths, 65% non-COVID-19-deaths, 21% uncertain). In the COVID-19 group 28% of the relatives were allowed visits without restrictions compared to 60% in the non-COVID-19 group (p < 0.01). Only 28% of the relatives in the COVID-19 group reported that the person received “enough care from physicians”, significantly fewer than the non-COVID group (65%, p < 0.01). Conclusion: Relatives’ experience of end-of-life care for persons with COVID-19 was significantly worse than relatives of persons without COVID-19, but relatives for persons without COVID-19 were also negatively affected.

Exploring the perceptions of Malaysian Gen Z towards the impact of COVID-19 on sustainable development

COVID-19 has affected the pursuit of sustainable development in multifaceted ways; this study investigates Malaysian Gen Z perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemics' disruptions to sustainable development. The exploratory research began with brainstorming from Malaysian Gen Z individuals with the following excerpt, 'The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world and led to unprecedented change. How do you believe this has impacted either positively or negatively, the global pursuit of sustainable development?' Ninety-eight unique statements were generated with subsequent participants sorting these statements into thematic groups before rating each of them on impact and duration. Subsequently, multi-dimensional scaling and cluster analysis was performed with eight-cluster solution being proposed. This study suggests that the pandemic has contributed both positively and negatively to sustainable development, while also highlighting the duration of these impacts. This community-based participatory research provides a guide for policy to mitigate negative impacts whilst also attempting to fully realise the positive impacts in response to managing the unprecedented effects of the pandemic.

Optimal diagnostic fever thresholds using non-contact infrared thermometers under COVID-19

Fever screening is an effective method to detect infectors associated with different variants of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on the fact that most infectors with COVID-19 have fever symptoms. Non-contact infrared thermometers (NCITs) are widely used in fever screening. Nevertheless, authoritative data is lacking in defining "fever" at different body surface sites when using NCITs. The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal diagnostic threshold for fever screening using NICTs at different body surface sites, to improve the accuracy of fever screening and provide theoretical reference for healthcare policy. Participants (n = 1860) who were outpatients or emergency patients at Chengdu Women's and Children's Central Hospital were recruited for this prospective investigation from March 1 to June 30, 2021. NCITs and mercury axillary thermometers were used to measure neck, temple, forehead and wrist temperatures of all participants. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to reflect the accuracy of NCITs. Linear correlation analysis was used to show the effect of age on body temperature. Multilinear regression analysis was used to explore the association between non-febrile participant's covariates and neck temperature. The mean age of participants was 3.45 ± 2.85 years for children and 28.56 ± 7.25 years for adults. In addition 1,304 (70.1%) participants were children (≤12), and 683 (36.7%) were male. The neck temperature exhibited the highest accuracy among the four sites. Further the optimal fever diagnostic thresholds of NCITs at the four body surface measurement sites were neck (36.75 °C, sensitivity: 0.993, specificity: 0.858); temple (36.55 °C, sensitivity: 0.974, specificity: 0.874); forehead (36.45 °C, sensitivity: 0.961, specificity: 0.813); and wrist (36.15 °C, sensitivity: 0.951, specificity: 0.434). Based on the findings of our study, we recommend 36.15, 36.45, 36.55, and 36.75 °C as the diagnostic thresholds of fever at the wrist, forehead, temple and neck, respectively. Among the four surface sites, neck temperature exhibited the highest accuracy.

Relation between PM2.5 pollution and Covid-19 mortality in Western Europe for the 2020-2022 period

The ambient air pollution by particulate matter (PM) has strong negative effects on human health. Recent studies have found correlations between pollution and mortality due to Covid-19. We present here an analysis of such correlation for 32 locations in 6 countries of the Western Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom), for the 2020-2022 period. The data are weekly averaged, and the mortality values were normalized considering the population of the locations. A correlation is qualitatively found for the time-series of PM2.5 pollution and Covid-19 mortality. The higher mortality values occurred during the pollutions peaks, as presented for the city of Paris (France) and the Lombardy regions (Italia), one of the more polluted locations in Western Europe. An almost linear trend with a factor 5.5 ± 1.0 increase in mortality when the pollution increases to ~45 μg.m^-3 is found when considering all data. This leads to an increase of 10.5 ± 2.5 % of mortality per 1 μg.m^-3. More precisely, the trend depends on the period of the analysis and decreases with time (first spread of the pandemic in Spring 2020, mid-2020 - mid 2021 period where the pandemic was better managed, and vaccinal race after mid-2021). Finally, although the initial conditions could differ from one country to another, the relative trend of increase was similar for the countries here considered. Such results can have some implication on the management of the Covid-19 pandemic and other cardiopulmonary diseases during PM pollution events. They also show the importance of reducing the PM pollution in the major cities.

Pre-to-post COVID-19 lockdown and their environmental impacts on Ghoghla beach and Somnath beach, India

Environmental impact of COVID-19 imposed lockdown (2020) and the new normal condition (2021) on two different beaches of India (Ghoghla beach, Diu and Somnath beach, Veraval) were compared with the pre-lockdown era, 2013. The lockdown phase favored the natural restoration of the beaches and showed infinitesimal values of the parameters tested when compared with the pre-lockdown regime. However, the new normal situation in 2021 opened up the accessibility of these beaches to the tourists and pilgrims resulting in significant changes of water quality. The release of diluted sewage mixed with freshwater from the Somnath town to the sea has led to the drastic change in beach water quality. The mean cadmium concentration increased drastically in beach waters (Ghoghla: 1.35, 0.28 and 7.09 μg/L; Somnath: 0.45, 0.28 and 0.58 μg/L) during pre-to-post lockdown, respectively. However, post-lockdown resulted in the rise of toxic heavy metals in the sediments of Somnath beach but Ghoghla beach remained to be pristine which may be due to the Blue Flagship status. The total number of marine bacteria was higher during 2013 and 2021 when compared during lockdown describing greater human interventions. For instance, Vibrio spp. count in Ghoghla beach water during pre-lockdown phase was 7733 CFU/mL and this value reduced to 70 and 5 CFU/mL in the lockdown and post-lockdown phases. Interestingly, the diversity of planktonic and benthic components showed a different trend from pre-to-post lockdown due to significant change in the inorganic nutrients and metal bioaccumulation. To our knowledge, this will be the first comprehensive assessment to report the environmental and ecological health of Ghoghla beach and Somnath beach during the pre-to-post lockdown.

Statistical model for factors correlating with COVID-19 deaths

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruption in societies globally. Our aim is to understand, what factors were associated with the impact of the pandemic on death rates. This will help countries to better prepare for and respond in future pandemics.

Methods

We modeled with a linear mixed effect model the impact of COVID-19 with the dependent variable "Daily mortality change" (DMC) with country features variables and intervention (containment measurement) data. We tested both country characteristics consisting of demographic, societal, health related, healthcare system specific, environmental and cultural feature as well as COVID-19 specific response in the form of social distancing interventions.

Results

A statistically significant country feature was Geert Hofstede's masculinity, i.e., the extent to which the use of force is endorsed socially, correlating positively with a higher DMC. The effects of different interventions were stronger that those of country features, particularly cancelling public events, controlling international travel and closing workplaces.

Conclusion

Social distancing interventions and the country feature: Geert Hofstede's masculinity dimension had a significant impact on COVID-19 mortality change. However other country features, such as development and population health did not show significance. Thus, the crises responders and scholars could revisit the concept and understanding of preparedness for and response to pandemics.

Risk management and communication plans from SARS to COVID-19 and beyond

OBJECTIVE

Nowadays, due to globalisation, the likelihood that infectious diseases spread rapidly is extraordinarily high. SARS and COVID-19 are two diseases of the Coronavirus family, which developed in China and then spread internationally, causing global public health emergencies. This study investigates the role that risk management and communication systems played in mitigating these emergencies, to establish how they should be improved in the future.

METHODS

A narrative review was carried out to investigate different knowledge domains, such as risk management and communication, risk assessment and indicators, epidemiological and clinical data, diagnostic methods, vaccines, public health and social measures.

RESULTS

On one side, risk management systems assess the main data, knowledge, and indicators on epidemiology, diagnostics, and vaccines (science-based); on the other side, they apply public health and social measures (socially-based). Decision-makers, in fact, implement their actions by constantly balancing these two sides (policy-based).

CONCLUSIONS

A correct crisis management approach should support the governance of pandemics, by harmonising the actual risks assessed by experts with those perceived by the general population. It should incorporate not only the biological, but even the environmental, social and economic aspects of virus emergencies, towards establishing a suitable framework to deal with possible future pandemics.

COVID-19's impact on interest in gastrointestinal topics

There has been a disparity in familiarity regarding the public interest in gastroenterology terminologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to understand the outcomes of the public's view on gastrointestinal topics and their potential social effects. This study is a comparative analysis of American Google Trends gastrointestinal terminology during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to a similar time frame (March 2018-February 2020) to determine how trends in the patient-seeking behavior of gastrointestinal terminology changed throughout the pandemic. The analysis discovered a substantial decrease in search volumes of gastrointestinal topics, more significantly in the first pandemic months. Later in the pandemic, search volumes trended toward pre-pandemic years in terms of public interest. In the case of gastrointestinal procedures, endoscopy and colonoscopies, they surpassed pre-pandemic interest levels statistically (p-values of 0.01 and 0.002). The public's decreased interest in gastrointestinal topics at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic may have adverse effects on the healthcare maintenance of patients who could have had a positive outcome in their gastrointestinal health with proper monitoring. Although gastrointestinal internet searches increased toward pre-pandemic levels as the seasons progressed, further research is needed to determine the social impact of decreased public interest.

COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

This study reveals that a vast vaccination campaign is a necessary but not sufficient public policy to reduce the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis because manifold factors guide the spread of this new infectious disease and related mortality in society. Statistical evidence here, based on a worldwide sample of countries, shows a positive correlation between people fully vaccinated and COVID-19 mortality (r = + 0.65, p-value < 0.01). Multivariate regression, controlling income per capita, confirms this finding. Results suggest that the increasing share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 seems to be a necessary but not sufficient health policy to reduce mortality of COVID-19. The findings here can be explained with the role of Peltzman effect, new variants, environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the diffusion and negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in society. This study extends the knowledge in this research field to design effective public policies of crisis management for facing next pandemic threats.

An agent-based model of social care provision during the early stages of Covid-19

Social care is a frequent topic in UK policy debates, with widespread concern that the country will be unable to face the challenges posed by the increase in demand for social care. While this is a societal problem whose dynamics depends on long-term trends, such as the increase of human lifespans and the drop of birth-rates, a short-term crisis, such as a pandemic, can affect the need and supply of social care to a considerable, although temporary, extent. Building on previous modelling effort of social care provision, we present an agent-based computational model to investigate social care provision in the context of a pandemic (using as an example, the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic), and related mitigation policies, on social care demand and supply, using a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). We show how policy solutions aimed at controlling the pandemic may have substantial effects on the level of unmet social care need and propose that such models may help policymakers to compare alternative containment policies, taking into account their side effects on the social care provision process.

Risk assessment of COVID-19 infection for subway commuters integrating dynamic changes in passenger numbers

The COVID-19 global pandemic has had a significant impact on mass travel. We examined the risk of transmission of COVID-19 infection between subway commuters using the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model. The model considered factors that may influence virus transmission, namely subway disinfection, ventilation capacity, average commuter spacing, single subway journey time, COVID-19 transmission capacity, and dynamic changes in passenger numbers. Based on these parameters, above a certain threshold (25 min), the risk of infection for susceptible people increased significantly as journey time increased. Average distance between commuters and levels of ventilation and disinfection were also important influencing factors. Meanwhile, the model also indicated that the risk of infection varied at different times of the day. Therefore, this paper recommends strengthening ventilation and disinfection in the carriages and limiting the time of single journeys, with an average distance of at least 1 m between passengers. In this light, subway commuters need to take proactive precautions to reduce their risk of COVID-19 infection. Also, the results show the importance of managing subway stations efficiently during epidemic and post-epidemic eras.

Improving preparedness for next pandemics: Max level of COVID-19 vaccinations without social impositions to design effective health policy and avoid flawed democracies

In the presence of pandemic threats, such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, vaccination is one of the fundamental strategies to cope with negative effects of new viral agents in society. The rollout of vast vaccination campaigns also generates the main issue of hesitancy and resistance to vaccines in a share of people. Many studies have investigated how to reduce the social resistance to vaccinations, however the maximum level of vaccinable people against COVID-19 (and in general against pandemic diseases), without coercion in countries, is unknown. The goal of this study is to solve the problem here by developing an empirical analysis, based on global data, to estimate the max share of people vaccinable in relation to socioeconomic wellbeing of nations. Results, based on 150 countries, reveal that vaccinations increase with the income per capita, achieving the maximum share of about 70% of total population, without coercion. This information can provide new knowledge to establish the appropriate goal of vaccination campaigns and in general of health policies to cope with next pandemic impacts, without restrictions that create socioeconomic problems. Overall, then, nations have a natural level of max vaccinable people (70% of population), but strict policies and mandates to achieve 90% of vaccinated population can reduce the quality of democracy and generate socioeconomic issues higher than (pandemic) crisis.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Childhood Obesity and Lifestyle-A Report from Italy

During the COVID-19 lockdown, especially in the first wave of pandemic (March 2020), sedentary lifestyle and calorie intake increase in children became considerably more prevalent. The aim of the present paper was to evaluate changes in children's weights and nutritional habits during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. In this cross-sectional observational study, for 3 years, as part of the corporate wellness program (2019-2021) in Emilia Romagna region of Italy, anthropometric data of Ferrari car company employers' children were collected, analyzed, and compared. Moreover, at the visit of November 2020, performed after the first wave of the pandemic with the most rigorous lockdown rules in Italy, a questionnaire on nutritional and lifestyle habits was administered. We evaluated 307 children (163 M, 10.1 ± 2.3 mean aged in 2019). A significant increase in BMI percentile in 2020 (65.2) compared to 2019 (49.2) was observed; it was confirmed, albeit slightly decreased, in 2021 (64.5). About one-third of participants reported an increase in consumption of fatty condiments and more than half report an increase in consumption of junk food. Levels of physical activity were still high during the COVID-19 lockdown, while sleeping time was significantly reduced. Our findings alert us to the importance of carefully monitoring eating behaviors in young to avoid the adoption of unhealthy food habits and prevent childhood obesity, especially during the period of COVID-19 lockdown.

A machine learning algorithm to analyse the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with new variants, continues to be a constant pandemic threat that is generating socio-economic and health issues in manifold countries. The principal goal of this study is to develop a machine learning experiment to assess the effects of vaccination on the fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 192 countries are analysed to explain the phenomena under study. This new algorithm selected two targets: the number of deaths and the fatality rate. Results suggest that, based on the respective vaccination plan, the turnout in the participation in the vaccination campaign, and the doses administered, countries under study suddenly have a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID-19 precisely at the point where the cut effect is generated in the neural network. This result is significant for the international scientific community. It would demonstrate the effective impact of the vaccination campaign on the fatality rate of COVID-19, whatever the country considered. In fact, once the vaccination has started (for vaccines that require a booster, we refer to at least the first dose), the antibody response of people seems to prevent the probability of death related to COVID-19. In short, at a certain point, the fatality rate collapses with increasing doses administered. All these results here can help decisions of policymakers to prepare optimal strategies, based on effective vaccination plans, to lessen the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in socioeconomic and health systems.

Forecasting the transmission trends of respiratory infectious diseases with an exposure-risk-based model at the microscopic level

Respiratory infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) have brought huge damages to human society, and the accurate prediction of their transmission trends is essential for both the health system and policymakers. Most related studies focus on epidemic trend forecasting at the macroscopic level, which ignores the microscopic social interactions among individuals. Meanwhile, current microscopic models are still not able to sufficiently decipher the individual-based spreading process and lack valid quantitative tests. To tackle these problems, we propose an exposure-risk-based model at the microscopic level, including 4 modules: individual movement, virion-laden droplet movement, individual exposure risk estimation, and prediction of transmission trends. Firstly, the front two modules reproduce the movements of individuals and the droplets of infectors' expiratory activities, respectively. Then, the outputs are fed to the third module to estimate the personal exposure risk. Finally, the number of new cases is predicted in the final module. By predicting the new COVID- 19 cases in the United States, the performances of our model and 4 other existing macroscopic or microscopic models are compared. Specifically, the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error provided by the proposed model are respectively 2454.70, 3170.51, and 3.38% smaller than the minimum results of comparison models. The quantitative results reveal that our model can accurately predict the transmission trends from a microscopic perspective, and it can benefit the further investigation of many microscopic disease transmission factors (e.g., non-walkable areas and facility layouts).

Application of CCTV Methodology to Analyze COVID-19 Evolution in Italy

Italy was one of the European countries most afflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2020 to 2022, Italy adopted strong containment measures against the COVID-19 epidemic and then started an important vaccination campaign. Here, we extended previous work by applying the COVID-19 Community Temporal Visualizer (CCTV) methodology to Italian COVID-19 data related to 2020, 2021, and five months of 2022. The aim of this work was to evaluate how Italy reacted to the pandemic in the first two waves of COVID-19, in which only containment measures such as the lockdown had been adopted, in the months following the start of the vaccination campaign, the months with the mildest weather, and the months affected by the new COVID-19 variants. This assessment was conducted by observing the behavior of single regions. CCTV methodology allows us to map the similarities in the behavior of Italian regions on a graph and use a community detection algorithm to visualize and analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of data. The results depict that the communities formed by Italian regions change with respect to the ten data measures and time.

Assessment and Impacts of Air Pollution from Brick Kilns on Public Health in Northern Pakistan

Brick kilns add enormous quantities of organic pollutants to the air that can cause serious health issues, especially in developing countries; poor air quality is associated with community health problems, yet receives no attention in Northern Pakistan. The present study, therefore, assessed the chemical composition and investigated the impacts of air pollution from brick kilns on public health. A field-based investigation of air pollutants, i.e., PM1, PM2.5 and PM10, CO2, CO, NO, NO2, H2S, and NH3 using mobile scientific instruments was conducted in selected study area locations. Social surveys were conducted to investigate the impacts of air pollution on community health. The results reveal the highest concentrations of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10, i.e., 3377, 2305, and 3567.67 µg/m3, respectively, in specific locations. Particulate matter concentrations in sampling points exceeded the permissible limits of the Pakistan National Environmental Quality Standard and, therefore, may risk the local population’s health. The highest mean value of CO2 was 529 mg/L, and other parameters, such as CO, NO, NO2, H2S, and NH3 were within the normal range. The social survey’s findings reveal that particulate matter was directly associated with respiratory diseases such as asthma, which was reported in all age groups selected for sampling. The study concluded by implementing air pollution reduction measures in brick kiln industries to protect the environment and community health. In addition, the region’s environmental protection agency needs to play an active role in proper checking and integrated management to improve air quality and protect the community from air hazards.

The association of airborne particulate matter and benzo[a]pyrene with the clinical course of COVID-19 in patients hospitalized in Poland

Air pollution can adversely affect the immune response and increase the severity of the viral disease. The present study aimed to explore the relationship between symptomatology, clinical course, and inflammation markers of adult patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalized in Poland (n = 4432) and air pollution levels, i.e., mean 24 h and max 24 h level of benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P) and particulate matter <10 μm (PM₁₀) and <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) during a week before their hospitalization. Exposures to PM_2.5 and B(a)P exceeding the limits were associated with higher odds of early respiratory symptoms of COVID-19 and hyperinflammatory state: interleukin-6 > 100 pg/mL, procalcitonin >0.25 ng/mL, and white blood cells count >11 × 10³/mL. Except for the mean 24 h PM₁₀ level, the exceedance of other air pollution parameters was associated with increased odds for oxygen saturation <90%. Exposure to elevated PM_2.5 and B(a)P levels increased the odds of oxygen therapy and death. This study evidences that worse air quality is related to increased severity of COVID-19 and worse outcome in hospitalized patients. Mitigating air pollution shall be an integral part of measures undertaken to decrease the disease burden during a pandemic of viral respiratory illness.

Autoantibodies and autoimmune disorders in SARS-CoV-2 infection: pathogenicity and immune regulation

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease associated with the respiratory system caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The aim of this review article is to establish an understanding about the relationship between autoimmune conditions and COVID-19 infections. Although majority of the population have been protected with vaccines against this virus, there is yet a successful curative medication for this disease. The use of autoimmune medications has been widely considered to control the infection, thus postulating possible relationships between COVID-19 and autoimmune diseases. Several studies have suggested the correlation between autoantibodies detected in patients and the severity of the COVID-19 disease. Studies have indicated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can disrupt the self-tolerance mechanism of the immune system, thus triggering autoimmune conditions. This review discusses the current scenario and future prospects of promising therapeutic strategies that may be employed to regulate such autoimmune conditions.