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Coffeng LE, Graham M, Browning R, Kura K, Diggle PJ, Denwood M, Medley GF, Anderson RM, de Vlas SJ. Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis. Clin Infect Dis 2024; 78:S153-S159. [PMID: 38662699 PMCID: PMC11045014 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping decisions" are based on population surveys that assess whether infection levels are sufficiently low. However, the limited sensitivity of the currently used diagnostic (Kato-Katz [KK]) to detect low-intensity infections is a concern. Therefore, the use of new, more sensitive, molecular diagnostics has been proposed. METHODS Through statistical analysis of Schistosoma mansoni egg counts collected from Burundi and a simulation study using an established transmission model for schistosomiasis, we investigated the extent to which more sensitive diagnostics can improve decision making regarding stopping or continuing PC for the control of S. mansoni. RESULTS We found that KK-based strategies perform reasonably well for determining when to stop PC at a local scale. Use of more sensitive diagnostics leads to a marginally improved health impact (person-years lived with heavy infection) and comes at a cost of continuing PC for longer (up to around 3 years), unless the decision threshold for stopping PC is adapted upward. However, if this threshold is set too high, PC may be stopped prematurely, resulting in a rebound of infection levels and disease burden (+45% person-years of heavy infection). CONCLUSIONS We conclude that the potential value of more sensitive diagnostics lies more in the reduction of survey-related costs than in the direct health impact of improved parasite control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luc E Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Matthew Graham
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford
| | | | - Klodeta Kura
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
| | - Peter J Diggle
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University Medical School, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew Denwood
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Graham F Medley
- Department of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Kura K, Mutono N, Basáñez MG, Collyer BS, Coffeng LE, Thumbi SM, Anderson RM. How Does Treatment Coverage and Proportion Never Treated Influence the Success of Schistosoma mansoni Elimination as a Public Health Problem by 2030? Clin Infect Dis 2024; 78:S126-S130. [PMID: 38662698 PMCID: PMC11045018 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The 2030 target for schistosomiasis is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy-intensity infection among school-aged children (SAC) reduces to <1%. To achieve this, the new World Health Organization guidelines recommend a broader target of population to include pre-SAC and adults. However, the probability of achieving EPHP should be expected to depend on patterns in repeated uptake of mass drug administration by individuals. METHODS We employed 2 individual-based stochastic models to evaluate the impact of school-based and community-wide treatment and calculated the number of rounds required to achieve EPHP for Schistosoma mansoni by considering various levels of the population never treated (NT). We also considered 2 age-intensity profiles, corresponding to a low and high burden of infection in adults. RESULTS The number of rounds needed to achieve this target depends on the baseline prevalence and the coverage used. For low- and moderate-transmission areas, EPHP can be achieved within 7 years if NT ≤10% and NT <5%, respectively. In high-transmission areas, community-wide treatment with NT <1% is required to achieve EPHP. CONCLUSIONS The higher the intensity of transmission, and the lower the treatment coverage, the lower the acceptable value of NT becomes. Using more efficacious treatment regimens would permit NT values to be marginally higher. A balance between target treatment coverage and NT values may be an adequate treatment strategy depending on the epidemiological setting, but striving to increase coverage and/or minimize NT can shorten program duration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Klodeta Kura
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Nyamai Mutono
- Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, Kenya
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman
| | - Maria-Gloria Basáñez
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Benjamin S Collyer
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Luc E Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - S M Thumbi
- Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, Kenya
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman
- Institute of Immunology and Infection Research, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
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3
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Grolimund CM, Bärenbold O, Hatz CF, Vennervald BJ, Mayombana C, Mshinda H, Utzinger J, Vounatsou P. Infection intensity-dependent accuracy of reagent strip for the diagnosis of Schistosoma haematobium and estimation of treatment prevalence thresholds. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010332. [PMID: 35468129 PMCID: PMC9071146 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2020] [Revised: 05/05/2022] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Reagent strip to detect microhematuria as a proxy for Schistosoma haematobium infections has been considered an alternative to urine filtration for individual diagnosis and community-based estimates of treatment needs for preventive chemotherapy. However, the diagnostic accuracy of reagent strip needs further investigation, particularly at low infection intensity levels. Methods We used existing data from a study conducted in Tanzania that employed urine filtration and reagent strip testing for S. haematobium in two villages, including a baseline and six follow-up surveys after praziquantel treatment representing a wide range of infection prevalence. We developed a Bayesian model linking individual S. haematobium egg count data based on urine filtration to reagent strip binary test results available on multiple days and estimated the relation between infection intensity and sensitivity of reagent strip. Furthermore, we simulated data from 3,000 hypothetical populations with varying mean infection intensity to infer on the relation between prevalence observed by urine filtration and the interpretation of reagent strip readings. Principal findings Reagent strip showed excellent sensitivity even for single measurement reaching 100% at around 15 eggs of S. haematobium per 10 ml of urine when traces on reagent strip were considered positive. The corresponding specificity was 97%. When traces were considered negative, the diagnostic accuracy of the reagent strip was equivalent to urine filtration data obtained on a single day. A 10% and 50% urine filtration prevalence based on a single day sampling corresponds to 11.2% and 48.6% prevalence by reagent strip, respectively, when traces were considered negative, and 17.6% and 57.7%, respectively, when traces were considered positive. Conclusions/Significance Trace results should be included in reagent strip readings when high sensitivity is required, but excluded when high specificity is needed. The observed prevalence of reagent strip results, when traces are considered negative, is a good proxy for prevalence estimates of S. haematobium infection by urine filtration on a single day. Control of schistosomiasis, a parasitic worm infection affecting more than 200 million people worldwide, relies mainly on mass drug administration of praziquantel to school-age children as well as adults in areas where the disease is particularly rampant. The World Health Organization has set thresholds of observed prevalence that require intervention to reach the goal of eliminating schistosomiasis as a public health problem by 2025. Intervention thresholds are defined based on parasitologic methods, which is urine filtration for Schistosoma haematobium. There are alternative diagnostic methods to detect S. haematobium, such as the detection of blood in urine that is a common symptom of urogenital schistosomiasis. We determined the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of a reagent strip to detect microhematuria using data from two villages in Tanzania at multiple time points (once before and several times after treatment with the deworming drug praziquantel) and translate the urine filtration intervention thresholds to reagent strip equivalents. We show that the reagent strip including trace results is almost perfectly sensitive for infections above 15 eggs of S. haematobium per 10 ml of urine and that a 10% observed prevalence by urine filtration corresponds to 17.6% observed prevalence by reagent strip including traces.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carla M. Grolimund
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Oliver Bärenbold
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Christoph F. Hatz
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Birgitte J. Vennervald
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | | | - Jürg Utzinger
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Penelope Vounatsou
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- * E-mail:
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Kura K, Ayabina D, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM. Determining the optimal strategies to achieve elimination of transmission for Schistosoma mansoni. Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:55. [PMID: 35164842 PMCID: PMC8842958 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05178-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Accepted: 01/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In January 2021, the World Health Organization published the 2021-2030 roadmap for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The goal for schistosomiasis is to achieve elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) and elimination of transmission (EOT) in 78 and 25 countries (by 2030), respectively. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel continues to be the main strategy for control and elimination. However, as there is limited availability of praziquantel, it is important to determine what volume of treatments are required, who should be targeted and how frequently treatment must be administered to eliminate either transmission or morbidity caused by infection in different endemic settings with varied transmission intensities. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this paper, we employ two individual-based stochastic models of schistosomiasis transmission developed independently by the Imperial College London (ICL) and University of Oxford (SCHISTOX) to determine the optimal treatment strategies to achieve EOT. We find that treating school-age children (SAC) only is not sufficient to achieve EOT within a feasible time frame, regardless of the transmission setting and observed age-intensity of infection profile. Both models show that community-wide treatment is necessary to interrupt transmission in all endemic settings with low, medium and high pristine transmission intensities. CONCLUSIONS The required MDA coverage level to achieve either transmission or morbidity elimination depends on the prevalence prior to the start of treatment and the burden of infection in adults. The higher the worm burden in adults, the higher the coverage levels required for this age category through community-wide treatment programmes. Therefore, it is important that intensity and prevalence data are collected in each age category, particularly from SAC and adults, so that the correct coverage level can be calculated and administered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Klodeta Kura
- grid.512598.2London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.14105.310000000122478951MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK
| | - Diepreye Ayabina
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF UK
| | - T. Deirdre Hollingsworth
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF UK
| | - Roy M. Anderson
- grid.512598.2London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.14105.310000000122478951MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK ,grid.35937.3b0000 0001 2270 9879The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
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Kura K, Hardwick RJ, Truscott JE, Anderson RM. What is the impact of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis and the efficacy of current and planned mass drug administration programmes? PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009946. [PMID: 34851952 PMCID: PMC8635407 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2020] [Accepted: 10/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis causes severe morbidity in many countries with endemic infection with the schistosome digenean parasites in Africa and Asia. To control and eliminate the disease resulting from infection, regular mass drug administration (MDA) is used, with a focus on school-aged children (SAC; 5-14 years of age). In some high transmission settings, the World Health Organization (WHO) also recommends the inclusion of at-risk adults in MDA treatment programmes. The question of whether ecology (age-dependant exposure) or immunity (resistance to reinfection), or some combination of both, determines the form of observed convex age-intensity profile is still unresolved, but there is a growing body of evidence that the human hosts acquire some partial level of immunity after a long period of repeated exposure to infection. In the majority of past research modelling schistosome transmission and the impact of MDA programmes, the effect of acquired immunity has not been taken into account. Past work has been based on the assumption that age-related contact rates generate convex horizontal age-intensity profiles. In this paper, we use an individual based stochastic model of transmission and MDA impact to explore the effect of acquired immunity in defined MDA programmes. Compared with scenarios with no immunity, we find that acquired immunity makes the MDA programme less effective with a slower decrease in the prevalence of infection. Therefore, the time to achieve morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem is longer than predicted by models with just age-related exposure and no build-up of immunity. The level of impact depends on the baseline prevalence prior to treatment (the magnitude of the basic reproductive number R0) and the treatment frequency, among other factors. We find that immunity has a larger impact within moderate to high transmission settings such that it is very unlikely to achieve morbidity and transmission control employing current MDA programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Klodeta Kura
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, United Kingdom
| | - Robert J. Hardwick
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, United Kingdom
- The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - James E. Truscott
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, United Kingdom
- The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Roy M. Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, United Kingdom
- The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, United Kingdom
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6
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Spillover, hybridization, and persistence in schistosome transmission dynamics at the human-animal interface. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2110711118. [PMID: 34615712 PMCID: PMC8521685 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2110711118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Zoonotic spillover and hybridization of parasites are major emerging public and veterinary health concerns at the interface of infectious disease biology, evolution, and control. Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global importance caused by parasites of the Schistosoma genus, and the Schistosoma spp. system within Africa represents a key example of a system where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled formation of hybrids. Combining model-based approaches and analyses of parasitological, molecular, and epidemiological data from northern Senegal, a region with a high prevalence of schistosome hybrids, we aimed to unravel the transmission dynamics of this complex multihost, multiparasite system. Using Bayesian methods and by estimating the basic reproduction number (R0 ), we evaluate the frequency of zoonotic spillover of Schistosoma bovis from livestock and the potential for onward transmission of hybrid S. bovis × S. haematobium offspring within human populations. We estimate R0 of hybrid schistosomes to be greater than the critical threshold of one (1.76; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.99), demonstrating the potential for hybridization to facilitate spread and establishment of schistosomiasis beyond its original geographical boundaries. We estimate R0 for S. bovis to be greater than one in cattle (1.43; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.85) but not in other ruminants, confirming cattle as the primary zoonotic reservoir. Through longitudinal simulations, we also show that where S. bovis and S. haematobium are coendemic (in livestock and humans respectively), the relative importance of zoonotic transmission is predicted to increase as the disease in humans nears elimination.
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Berger DJ, Crellen T, Lamberton PHL, Allan F, Tracey A, Noonan JD, Kabatereine NB, Tukahebwa EM, Adriko M, Holroyd N, Webster JP, Berriman M, Cotton JA. Whole-genome sequencing of Schistosoma mansoni reveals extensive diversity with limited selection despite mass drug administration. Nat Commun 2021; 12:4776. [PMID: 34362894 PMCID: PMC8346512 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24958-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2020] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Control and elimination of the parasitic disease schistosomiasis relies on mass administration of praziquantel. Whilst these programmes reduce infection prevalence and intensity, their impact on parasite transmission and evolution is poorly understood. Here we examine the genomic impact of repeated mass drug administration on Schistosoma mansoni populations with documented reduced praziquantel efficacy. We sequenced whole-genomes of 198 S. mansoni larvae from 34 Ugandan children from regions with contrasting praziquantel exposure. Parasites infecting children from Lake Victoria, a transmission hotspot, form a diverse panmictic population. A single round of treatment did not reduce this diversity with no apparent population contraction caused by long-term praziquantel use. We find evidence of positive selection acting on members of gene families previously implicated in praziquantel action, but detect no high frequency functionally impactful variants. As efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis intensify, our study provides a foundation for genomic surveillance of this major human parasite.
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Affiliation(s)
- Duncan J Berger
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, UK.
- Department of Pathology and Pathogen Biology, Centre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic Diseases, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Herts, UK.
| | - Thomas Crellen
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, UK
- Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London, UK
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Poppy H L Lamberton
- Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London, UK
- Institute for Biodiversity, Animal Health, and Comparative Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Fiona Allan
- The Natural History Museum, Department of Life Sciences, London, UK
| | - Alan Tracey
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, UK
| | - Jennifer D Noonan
- Institute of Parasitology, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Narcis B Kabatereine
- Vector Borne & Neglected Tropical Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Edridah M Tukahebwa
- Vector Borne & Neglected Tropical Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Moses Adriko
- Vector Borne & Neglected Tropical Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Nancy Holroyd
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, UK
| | - Joanne P Webster
- Department of Pathology and Pathogen Biology, Centre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic Diseases, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Herts, UK.
- Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London, UK.
| | - Matthew Berriman
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, UK.
| | - James A Cotton
- Wellcome Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, UK.
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Gillardie ML, Babba O, Mahinc C, Duthel M, de Bengy C, Morineaud C, Rivollier E, Flori P. Molecular approach to the epidemiology of urinary schistosomiasis in France. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009515. [PMID: 34228747 PMCID: PMC8284649 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Revised: 07/16/2021] [Accepted: 05/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The diagnosis of urogenital schistosomiasis is based on the complementarity of serological technique and microscopic examination (ME). Between 2015 and 2019, the number of urinary schistosomiasis tests received in our laboratory increased sharply from 300 to 900 per year. Therefore, we wanted to evaluate the reliability of urine microscopic examination (ME, reference and routine technique) from urine sample by comparing it to other techniques (antigenic technique and PCR). To this end, we optimized two real-time PCRs targeting respectively Schistosoma haematobium (Sh) and Schistosoma mansoni (Sm). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS 914 urine samples from 846 patients suspected of urogenital schistosomiasis were prescribed and analyzed by PCR and also by antigenic technique for the first 143 samples. The antigenic technique evaluated was Schisto POC-CCA, Rapid Medical Diagnostics. These results (antigenic technique and PCR) were compared to ME which was performed from all urines. The percentage of 14% (128/914) positive cases with the PCR technique and the percentage of 6.0% (54/914) positive cases with ME is significantly different (Chi 2 test, p<0.001). These 128 positive PCRs correspond to 120 different patients, 88.3% (106/120) of them were young migrants and 11.7% (14/120) were French patients returning from travel. Among these migrants, more than 75% (80/106) came from French-speaking West Africa. In addition, the Schisto POC-CCA showed a specificity of 39% (46/117), too poor to be used as a screening tool in low or non-endemic areas. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE Targeted Sh and Sm PCRs in urine are reliable techniques compared to ME (reference technique). In view of our results, we decided to screen urinary schistosomiasis by direct ME always coupled by the PCR technique, which has shown better reliability criteria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marie-Laure Gillardie
- University of Saint-Etienne, GIMAP-EA-3064, Saint Etienne, France
- Parasitology and Mycology, department of Infectious Agents and Hygiene, University Hospital of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
| | - Oussama Babba
- University of Saint-Etienne, GIMAP-EA-3064, Saint Etienne, France
- Parasitology and Mycology, department of Infectious Agents and Hygiene, University Hospital of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
| | - Caroline Mahinc
- Parasitology and Mycology, department of Infectious Agents and Hygiene, University Hospital of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
| | - Maureen Duthel
- University of Saint-Etienne, GIMAP-EA-3064, Saint Etienne, France
- Parasitology and Mycology, department of Infectious Agents and Hygiene, University Hospital of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
| | - Claire de Bengy
- University of Saint-Etienne, GIMAP-EA-3064, Saint Etienne, France
- Parasitology and Mycology, department of Infectious Agents and Hygiene, University Hospital of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
| | - Clotilde Morineaud
- Department of Public Health, University Hospital of Poitiers, Poitiers, France
| | - Elisabeth Rivollier
- Department PASS, University Hospital of Saint-Etienne, Saint Etienne, France
| | - Pierre Flori
- University of Saint-Etienne, GIMAP-EA-3064, Saint Etienne, France
- Parasitology and Mycology, department of Infectious Agents and Hygiene, University Hospital of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
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9
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Kura K, Ayabina D, Toor J, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM. Disruptions to schistosomiasis programmes due to COVID-19: an analysis of potential impact and mitigation strategies. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2021; 115:236-244. [PMID: 33515038 PMCID: PMC7928593 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/traa202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2020] [Revised: 10/28/2020] [Accepted: 01/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The 2030 goal for schistosomiasis is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), with mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel to school-age children (SAC) as a central pillar of the strategy. However, due to coronavirus disease 2019, many mass treatment campaigns for schistosomiasis have been halted, with uncertain implications for the programmes. METHODS We use mathematical modelling to explore how postponement of MDA and various mitigation strategies affect achievement of the EPHP goal for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium. RESULTS For both S. mansoni and S. haematobium in moderate- and some high-prevalence settings, the disruption may delay the goal by up to 2 y. In some high-prevalence settings, EPHP is not achievable with current strategies and so the disruption will not impact this. Here, increasing SAC coverage and treating adults can achieve the goal. The impact of MDA disruption and the appropriate mitigation strategy varies according to the baseline prevalence prior to treatment, the burden of infection in adults and the stage of the programme. CONCLUSIONS Schistosomiasis MDA programmes in medium- and high-prevalence areas should restart as soon as is feasible and mitigation strategies may be required in some settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Klodeta Kura
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
| | - Diepreye Ayabina
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
| | - Jaspreet Toor
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
| | - T Deirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis.,DeWorm3 Project, Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
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10
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Toor J, Rollinson D, Turner HC, Gouvras A, King CH, Medley GF, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM. Achieving Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium: When Is Community-Wide Treatment Required? J Infect Dis 2021; 221:S525-S530. [PMID: 31829414 PMCID: PMC7289541 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) has set elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) as a goal for schistosomiasis. As the WHO treatment guidelines for schistosomiasis are currently under revision, we investigate whether school-based or community-wide treatment strategies are required for achieving the EPHP goal. In low- to moderate-transmission settings with good school enrolment, we find that school-based treatment is sufficient for achieving EPHP. However, community-wide treatment is projected to be necessary in certain high-transmission settings as well as settings with low school enrolment. Hence, the optimal treatment strategy depends on setting-specific factors such as the species present, prevalence prior to treatment, and the age profile of infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaspreet Toor
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David Rollinson
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK.,Global Schistosomiasis Alliance, Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
| | - Hugo C Turner
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.,Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Anouk Gouvras
- Global Schistosomiasis Alliance, Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
| | - Charles H King
- Center for Global Health and Diseases, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | - Graham F Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.,Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.,The DeWorm3 Project, Natural History Museum, London, UK
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11
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Graham M, Ayabina D, Lucas TC, Collyer BS, Medley GF, Hollingsworth TD, Toor J. SCHISTOX: An individual based model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis. Infect Dis Model 2021; 6:438-447. [PMID: 33665519 PMCID: PMC7897994 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2020] [Accepted: 01/21/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
A stochastic individual based model, SCHISTOX, has been developed for the study of schistosome transmission dynamics and the impact of control by mass drug administration. More novel aspects that can be investigated include individual level adherence and access to treatment, multiple communities, human sex population dynamics, and implementation of a potential vaccine. Many of the model parameters have been estimated within previous studies and have been shown to vary between communities, such as the age-specific contact rates governing the age profiles of infection. However, uncertainty remains as there are wide ranges for certain parameter values and a few remain relatively unknown. We analyse the model dynamics by parameterizing it with published parameter values. We also discuss the development of SCHISTOX in the form of a publicly available open-source GitHub repository. The next key development stage involves validating the model by calibrating to epidemiological data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Graham
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Diepreye Ayabina
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Tim Cd Lucas
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.,Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Benjamin S Collyer
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Graham F Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - T Deirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jaspreet Toor
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom
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12
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Kura K, Hardwick RJ, Truscott JE, Toor J, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM. The impact of mass drug administration on Schistosoma haematobium infection: what is required to achieve morbidity control and elimination? Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:554. [PMID: 33203467 PMCID: PMC7672840 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04409-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2020] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Schistosomiasis remains an endemic parasitic disease causing much morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined strategies and goals to combat the burden of disease caused by schistosomiasis. The first goal is morbidity control, which is defined by achieving less than 5% prevalence of heavy intensity infection in school-aged children (SAC). The second goal is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy intensity infection in SAC is reduced to less than 1%. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel is the main strategy for control. However, there is limited availability of praziquantel, particularly in Africa where there is high prevalence of infection. It is therefore important to explore whether the WHO goals can be achieved using the current guidelines for treatment based on targeting SAC and, in some cases, adults. Previous modelling work has largely focused on Schistosoma mansoni, which in advance cases can cause liver and spleen enlargement. There has been much less modelling of the transmission of Schistosoma haematobium, which in severe cases can cause kidney damage and bladder cancer. This lack of modelling has largely been driven by limited data availability and challenges in interpreting these data. Results In this paper, using an individual-based stochastic model and age-intensity profiles of S. haematobium from two different communities, we calculate the probability of achieving the morbidity and EPHP goals within 15 years of treatment under the current WHO treatment guidelines. We find that targeting SAC only can achieve the morbidity goal for all transmission settings, regardless of the burden of infection in adults. The EPHP goal can be achieved in low transmission settings, but in some moderate to high settings community-wide treatment is needed. Conclusions We show that the key determinants of achieving the WHO goals are the precise form of the age-intensity of infection profile and the baseline SAC prevalence. Additionally, we find that the higher the burden of infection in adults, the higher the chances that adults need to be included in the treatment programme to achieve EPHP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Klodeta Kura
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK. .,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK. .,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.
| | - Robert J Hardwick
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.,The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
| | - James E Truscott
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.,The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
| | - Jaspreet Toor
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
| | - T Deirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.,The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
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13
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King CH, Yoon N, Wang X, Lo NC, Alsallaq R, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Li E, Gurarie D. Application of Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation Study Findings to Refine Predictive Modeling of Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium Control in Sub-Saharan Africa. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 103:97-104. [PMID: 32400357 PMCID: PMC7351296 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
An essential mission of the Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) was to help inform global health practices related to the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. To provide more accurate, evidence-based projections of the most likely impact of different control interventions, whether implemented alone or in combination, SCORE supported mathematical modeling teams to provide simulations of community-level Schistosoma infection outcomes in the setting of real or hypothetical programs implementing multiyear mass drug administration (MDA) for parasite control. These models were calibrated using SCORE experience with Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium gaining and sustaining control studies, and with data from comparable programs that used community-based or school-based praziquantel MDA in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. From 2010 to 2019, models were developed and refined, first to project the likely SCORE control outcomes, and later to more accurately reflect impact of MDA across different transmission settings, including the role of snail ecology and the impact of seasonal rainfall on snail abundance. Starting in 2014, SCORE modeling projections were also compared with the models of colleagues in the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium. To explore further possible improvement to program-based control, later simulations examined the cost-effectiveness of combining MDA with environmental snail control, and the utility of early impact assessment to more quickly identify persistent hot spots of transmission. This article provides a nontechnical summary of the 11 SCORE-related modeling projects and provides links to the original open-access articles describing model development and projections relevant to schistosomiasis control policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles H King
- Center for Global Health and Diseases, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.,Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation, Center for Tropical and Emerging Global Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
| | - Nara Yoon
- Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Xiaoxia Wang
- Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Nathan C Lo
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Ramzi Alsallaq
- Center for Global Health and Diseases, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | | | - Emily Li
- School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - David Gurarie
- Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.,Center for Global Health and Diseases, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
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14
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Betson M, Alonte AJI, Ancog RC, Aquino AMO, Belizario VY, Bordado AMD, Clark J, Corales MCG, Dacuma MG, Divina BP, Dixon MA, Gourley SA, Jimenez JRD, Jones BP, Manalo SMP, Prada JM, van Vliet AHM, Whatley KCL, Paller VGV. Zoonotic transmission of intestinal helminths in southeast Asia: Implications for control and elimination. ADVANCES IN PARASITOLOGY 2020; 108:47-131. [PMID: 32291086 DOI: 10.1016/bs.apar.2020.01.036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Intestinal helminths are extremely widespread and highly prevalent infections of humans, particularly in rural and poor urban areas of low and middle-income countries. These parasites have chronic and often insidious effects on human health and child development including abdominal problems, anaemia, stunting and wasting. Certain animals play a fundamental role in the transmission of many intestinal helminths to humans. However, the contribution of zoonotic transmission to the overall burden of human intestinal helminth infection and the relative importance of different animal reservoirs remains incomplete. Moreover, control programmes and transmission models for intestinal helminths often do not consider the role of zoonotic reservoirs of infection. Such reservoirs will become increasingly important as control is scaled up and there is a move towards interruption and even elimination of parasite transmission. With a focus on southeast Asia, and the Philippines in particular, this review summarises the major zoonotic intestinal helminths, risk factors for infection and highlights knowledge gaps related to their epidemiology and transmission. Various methodologies are discussed, including parasite genomics, mathematical modelling and socio-economic analysis, that could be employed to improve understanding of intestinal helminth spread, reservoir attribution and the burden associated with infection, as well as assess effectiveness of interventions. For sustainable control and ultimately elimination of intestinal helminths, there is a need to move beyond scheduled mass deworming and to consider animal and environmental reservoirs. A One Health approach to control of intestinal helminths is proposed, integrating interventions targeting humans, animals and the environment, including improved access to water, hygiene and sanitation. This will require coordination and collaboration across different sectors to achieve best health outcomes for all.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martha Betson
- University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom.
| | | | - Rico C Ancog
- University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines
| | | | | | | | - Jessica Clark
- University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Billy P Divina
- University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines
| | | | | | | | - Ben P Jones
- University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom
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15
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Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goal for schistosomiasis. Gates Open Res 2019; 3:1517. [PMID: 31701091 DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13052.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/08/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis remains one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) impacting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a goal of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) for schistosomiasis to be reached by 2030. Current WHO treatment guidelines for achieving EPHP focus on targeting school-aged children. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and the impact of control measures. Our modelling insights on Schistosoma mansoni have shown that EPHP is likely to be attainable in low to moderate prevalence settings using the current guidelines. However, as prevalence rises within high prevalence settings, EPHP is less likely to be achieved unless both school-aged children and adults are treated (with coverage levels increasing with the adult burden of infection). We highlight the challenges that are faced by treatment programmes, such as non-adherence to treatment and resurgence, which can hinder progress towards achieving and maintaining EPHP. Additionally, even though EPHP may be reached, prevalence can still be high due to persisting infections. Therefore, without interruption of transmission, treatment will likely have to continue to maintain EPHP. Further modelling work is being carried out, including extending our results to S. haematobium. By providing these modelling insights, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for schistosomiasis.
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16
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Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goal for schistosomiasis. Gates Open Res 2019; 3:1517. [PMID: 31701091 PMCID: PMC6820450 DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13052.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/15/2019] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis remains one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) impacting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a goal of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) for schistosomiasis to be reached by 2030. Current WHO treatment guidelines for achieving EPHP focus on targeting school-aged children. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and the impact of control measures. Our modelling insights on
Schistosoma mansoni have shown that EPHP is likely to be attainable in low to moderate prevalence settings using the current guidelines. However, as prevalence rises within high prevalence settings, EPHP is less likely to be achieved unless both school-aged children and adults are treated (with coverage levels increasing with the adult burden of infection). We highlight the challenges that are faced by treatment programmes, such as non-adherence to treatment and resurgence, which can hinder progress towards achieving and maintaining EPHP. Additionally, even though EPHP may be reached, prevalence can still be high due to persisting infections. Therefore, without interruption of transmission, treatment will likely have to continue to maintain EPHP. Further modelling work is being carried out, including extending our results to
S. haematobium. By providing these modelling insights, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for schistosomiasis.
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17
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Toor J, Alsallaq R, Truscott JE, Turner HC, Werkman M, Gurarie D, King CH, Anderson RM. Are We on Our Way to Achieving the 2020 Goals for Schistosomiasis Morbidity Control Using Current World Health Organization Guidelines? Clin Infect Dis 2019; 66:S245-S252. [PMID: 29860290 PMCID: PMC5982704 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Schistosomiasis remains an endemic parasitic disease affecting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals of controlling morbidity to be reached by 2020, along with elimination as a public health problem in certain regions by 2025. Mathematical models of parasite transmission and treatment impact have been developed to assist in controlling the morbidity caused by schistosomiasis. These models can inform and guide implementation policy for mass drug administration programs, and help design monitoring and evaluation activities. Methods We use these models to predict whether the guidelines set by the WHO are on track for achieving their 2020 goal for the control of morbidity, specifically for Schistosoma mansoni. We examine whether programmatic adaptations; namely increases in treatment coverage and/or expansion to adult inclusion in treatment, will improve the likelihood of reaching the WHO goals. Results We find that in low-prevalence settings, the goals are likely to be attainable under current WHO guidelines, but in moderate to high-prevalence settings, the goals are less likely to be achieved unless treatment coverage is increased and expanded to at least 85% for school-aged children and 40% for adults. Conclusions To improve the likelihood of reaching the WHO goals, programmatic adaptations are required, particularly for moderate- to high-prevalence settings. Furthermore, improvements in adherence to treatment, potential development of candidate vaccines, and enhanced snail control and WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) measures will all assist in achieving the goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaspreet Toor
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Ramzi Alsallaq
- Center for Global Health and Diseases and Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - James E Truscott
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,The DeWorm3 Project, Natural History Museum of London, United Kingdom
| | - Hugo C Turner
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.,Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Marleen Werkman
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,The DeWorm3 Project, Natural History Museum of London, United Kingdom
| | - David Gurarie
- Center for Global Health and Diseases and Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Charles H King
- Center for Global Health and Diseases and Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,The DeWorm3 Project, Natural History Museum of London, United Kingdom
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18
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Arakala A, Hoover CM, Marshall JM, Sokolow SH, De Leo GA, Rohr JR, Remais JV, Gambhir M. Estimating the elimination feasibility in the 'end game' of control efforts for parasites subjected to regular mass drug administration: Methods and their application to schistosomiasis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006794. [PMID: 30418968 PMCID: PMC6258430 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2017] [Revised: 11/26/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Progress towards controlling and eliminating parasitic worms, including schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and lymphatic filariasis, is advancing rapidly as national governments, multinational NGOs, and pharmaceutical companies launch collaborative chemotherapeutic control campaigns. Critical questions remain regarding the potential for achieving elimination of these infections, and analytical methods can help to quickly estimate progress towards-and the probability of achieving-elimination over specific timeframes. Here, we propose the effective reproduction number, Reff, as a proxy of elimination potential for sexually reproducing worms that are subject to poor mating success at very low abundance (positive density dependence, or Allee effects). Reff is the number of parasites produced by a single reproductive parasite at a given stage in the transmission cycle, over the parasite's lifetime-it is the generalized form of the more familiar basic reproduction number, R0, which only applies at the beginning of an epidemic-and it can be estimated in a 'model-free' manner by an estimator ('ε'). We introduce ε, demonstrate its estimation using simulated data, and discuss how it may be used in planning and evaluation of ongoing elimination efforts for a range of parasitic diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arathi Arakala
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Christopher M. Hoover
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - John M. Marshall
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Susanne H. Sokolow
- Department of Biology—Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America
| | - Giulio A. De Leo
- Department of Biology—Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America
| | - Jason R. Rohr
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Southern Florida, Tampa, Florida, United States of America
| | - Justin V. Remais
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Manoj Gambhir
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Health Modelling and Analytics, IBM Research Australia, Melbourne, Australia
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19
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Hollingsworth TD, Medley GF. Learning from multi-model comparisons: Collaboration leads to insights, but limitations remain. Epidemics 2018; 18:1-3. [PMID: 28279450 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- T D Hollingsworth
- Zeeman Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom
| | - G F Medley
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom
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20
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Toor J, Turner HC, Truscott JE, Werkman M, Phillips AE, Alsallaq R, Medley GF, King CH, Anderson RM. The design of schistosomiasis monitoring and evaluation programmes: The importance of collecting adult data to inform treatment strategies for Schistosoma mansoni. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006717. [PMID: 30296257 PMCID: PMC6175503 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2018] [Accepted: 07/24/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) programmes are used to collect data which are required to assess the impact of current interventions on their progress towards achieving the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem for schistosomiasis. Prevalence and intensity of infection data are typically collected from school-aged children (SAC) as they are relatively easy to sample and are thought to be most likely to be infected by schistosome parasites. However, adults are also likely to be infected. We use three different age-intensity profiles of infection for Schistosoma mansoni with low, moderate and high burdens of infection in adults to investigate how the age distribution of infection impacts the mathematical model generated recommendations of the preventive chemotherapy coverage levels required to achieve the WHO goals. We find that for moderate prevalence regions, regardless of the burden of infection in adults, treating SAC only may achieve the WHO goals. However, for high prevalence regions with a high burden of infection in adults, adult treatment is required to meet the WHO goals. Hence, we show that the optimal treatment strategy for a defined region requires consideration of the burden of infection in adults as it cannot be based solely on the prevalence of infection in SAC. Although past epidemiological data have informed mathematical models for the transmission and control of schistosome infections, more accurate and detailed data are required from M&E programmes to accurately determine the optimal treatment strategy for a defined region. We highlight the importance of collecting prevalence and intensity of infection data from a broader age-range, specifically the inclusion of adult data at baseline (prior to treatment) and throughout the treatment programme if possible, rather than SAC only, to accurately determine the treatment strategy for a defined region. Furthermore, we discuss additional epidemiological data, such as individual longitudinal adherence to treatment, that should ideally be collected in M&E programmes. Schistosomiasis remains an endemic parasitic disease affecting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals of morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem for schistosomiasis defined by reaching ≤5% and ≤1% prevalence of heavy-intensity infections in school-aged children, respectively. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) programmes are used to collect data which can inform treatment strategies required in a defined area and can also aid in assessing the progress of implemented treatment strategies. Due to programmatic and financial constraints, M&E data are typically collected from school-aged children as they are thought to be most likely to be infected. We highlight that adults should be included within M&E programmes by showing how the burden of infection in adults impacts our mathematical model recommendations of the treatment coverage levels required to reach the WHO goals for schistosomiasis. Our results highlight the importance of collecting data from a broader age-range, specifically the inclusion of adult data at baseline (prior to treatment) and throughout the treatment programme if possible. Improving M&E programmes to incorporate collection of such data will allow for more accurate determination of the optimal treatment strategy for a defined region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaspreet Toor
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Hugo C. Turner
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - James E. Truscott
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marleen Werkman
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Anna E. Phillips
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ramzi Alsallaq
- Center for Global Health and Diseases and Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America
| | - Graham F. Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Charles H. King
- Center for Global Health and Diseases and Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America
| | - Roy M. Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, United Kingdom
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21
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Low Praziquantel Treatment Coverage for Schistosoma mansoni in Mayuge District, Uganda, Due to the Absence of Treatment Opportunities, Rather Than Systematic Non-Compliance. Trop Med Infect Dis 2018; 3:tropicalmed3040111. [PMID: 30297642 PMCID: PMC6306755 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed3040111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2018] [Revised: 09/25/2018] [Accepted: 09/26/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends praziquantel mass drug administration (MDA) to control schistosomiasis in endemic regions. We aimed to quantify recent and lifetime praziquantel coverage, and reasons for non-treatment, at an individual level to guide policy recommendations to help Uganda reach WHO goals. Cross-sectional household surveys (n = 681) encompassing 3208 individuals (adults and children) were conducted in 2017 in Bugoto A and B, Mayuge District, Uganda. Participants were asked if they had received praziquantel during the recent MDA (October 2016) and whether they had ever received praziquantel in their lifetime. A multivariate logistic regression analysis with socio-economic and individual characteristics as covariates was used to determine factors associated with praziquantel uptake. In the MDA eligible population (≥5 years of age), the most recent MDA coverage was 48.8%. Across individuals’ lifetimes, 31.8% of eligible and 49.5% of the entire population reported having never taken praziquantel. Factors that improved individuals’ odds of taking praziquantel included school enrolment, residence in Bugoto B and increasing years of village-residency. Not being offered (49.2%) and being away during treatment (21.4%) were the most frequent reasons for not taking the 2016 praziquantel MDA. Contrary to expectations, chronically-untreated individuals were rarely systematic non-compliers, but more commonly not offered treatment.
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22
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Hollingsworth TD. Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling? Clin Infect Dis 2018; 66:S237-S244. [PMID: 29860293 PMCID: PMC5982793 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has received huge investment in recent years, leading to large reductions in morbidity. In 2012, the World Health Organization set ambitious targets for eliminating many of these diseases as a public health problem by 2020, an aspiration that was supported by donations of treatments, intervention materials, and funding committed by a broad partnership of stakeholders in the London Declaration on NTDs. Alongside these efforts, there has been an increasing role for quantitative analysis and modeling to support the achievement of these goals through evaluation of the likely impact of interventions, the factors that could undermine these achievements, and the role of new diagnostics and treatments in reducing transmission. In this special issue, we aim to summarize those insights in an accessible way. This article acts as an introduction to the special issue, outlining key concepts in NTDs and insights from modeling as we approach 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffideld Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
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23
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Gurarie D, Lo NC, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Durham DP, King CH. The human-snail transmission environment shapes long term schistosomiasis control outcomes: Implications for improving the accuracy of predictive modeling. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006514. [PMID: 29782500 PMCID: PMC5983867 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2018] [Revised: 06/01/2018] [Accepted: 05/09/2018] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Schistosomiasis is a chronic parasitic trematode disease that affects over 240 million people worldwide. The Schistosoma lifecycle is complex, involving transmission via specific intermediate-host freshwater snails. Predictive mathematical models of Schistosoma transmission have often chosen to simplify or ignore the details of environmental human-snail interaction in their analyses. Schistosome transmission models now aim to provide better precision for policy planning of elimination of transmission. This heightens the importance of including the environmental complexity of vector-pathogen interaction in order to make more accurate projections. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We propose a nonlinear snail force of infection (FOI) that takes into account an intermediate larval stage (miracidium) and snail biology. We focused, in particular, on the effects of snail force of infection (FOI) on the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) in human communities. The proposed (modified) model was compared to a conventional model in terms of their predictions. A longitudinal dataset generated in Kenya field studies was used for model calibration and validation. For each sample community, we calibrated modified and conventional model systems, then used them to model outcomes for a range of MDA regimens. In most cases, the modified model predicted more vigorous post-MDA rebound, with faster relapse to baseline levels of infection. The effect was pronounced in higher risk communities. When compared to observed data, only the modified system was able to successfully predict persistent rebound of Schistosoma infection. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE The observed impact of varying location-specific snail inputs sheds light on the diverse MDA response patterns noted in operational research on schistosomiasis control, such as the recent SCORE project. Efficiency of human-to-snail transmission is likely to be much higher than predicted by standard models, which, in practice, will make local elimination by implementation of MDA alone highly unlikely, even over a multi-decade period.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Gurarie
- Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America
- Center for Global Health and Diseases, School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America
- Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Nathan C Lo
- Division of Epidemiology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah
- Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - David P Durham
- Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Charles H King
- Center for Global Health and Diseases, School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America
- Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
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24
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Impact and cost-effectiveness of snail control to achieve disease control targets for schistosomiasis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:E584-E591. [PMID: 29301964 PMCID: PMC5789907 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1708729114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis is an infectious disease that affects over 240 million people living in low- and middle-income countries, and is caused by parasitic worms that require snail hosts to complete its lifecycle. To improve public health control of this disease, there is growing interest in using chemical-based snail control that kills snail populations in environmental water sources, which will reduce infection rate in people. We modeled transmission of schistosomiasis and cost-effectiveness of various strategies with data from low- and high-prevalence rural Kenyan communities. Adding snail control alongside conventional mass treatment programs (instead of mass treatment programs alone) was found to be cost-effective, especially in settings with high disease burden and nonparticipation in mass treatment programs. Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease that affects over 240 million people globally. To improve population-level disease control, there is growing interest in adding chemical-based snail control interventions to interrupt the lifecycle of Schistosoma in its snail host to reduce parasite transmission. However, this approach is not widely implemented, and given environmental concerns, the optimal conditions for when snail control is appropriate are unclear. We assessed the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of various snail control strategies. We extended previously published dynamic, age-structured transmission and cost-effectiveness models to simulate mass drug administration (MDA) and focal snail control interventions against Schistosoma haematobium across a range of low-prevalence (5–20%) and high-prevalence (25–50%) rural Kenyan communities. We simulated strategies over a 10-year period of MDA targeting school children or entire communities, snail control, and combined strategies. We measured incremental cost-effectiveness in 2016 US dollars per disability-adjusted life year and defined a strategy as optimally cost-effective when maximizing health gains (averted disability-adjusted life years) with an incremental cost-effectiveness below a Kenya-specific economic threshold. In both low- and high-prevalence settings, community-wide MDA with additional snail control reduced total disability by an additional 40% compared with school-based MDA alone. The optimally cost-effective scenario included the addition of snail control to MDA in over 95% of simulations. These results support inclusion of snail control in global guidelines and national schistosomiasis control strategies for optimal disease control, especially in settings with high prevalence, “hot spots” of transmission, and noncompliance to MDA.
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25
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The Interdependence between Schistosome Transmission and Protective Immunity. Trop Med Infect Dis 2017; 2:tropicalmed2030042. [PMID: 30270899 PMCID: PMC6082113 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed2030042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2017] [Revised: 08/02/2017] [Accepted: 08/08/2017] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Mass drug administration (MDA) for control of schistosomiasis is likely to affect transmission dynamics through a combination of passive vaccination and reduction of local transmission intensity. This is indicated in phenomenological models of immunity and the impact of MDA, yet immunity parameters in these models are not validated by empirical data that reflects protective immunity to reinfection. There is significant empirical evidence supporting the role of IgE in acquired protective immunity. This is proposed to be a form of delayed concomitant immunity, driven at least in part by protective IgE responses to the tegument allergen-like (TAL) family of proteins. Specific questions have arisen from modeling studies regarding the strength and duration of the protective immune response. At present, field studies have not been specifically designed to address these questions. There is therefore a need for field studies that are explicitly designed to capture epidemiological effects of acquired immunity to elucidate these immunological interactions. In doing so, it is important to address the discourse between theoretical modelers and immuno-epidemiologists and develop mechanistic models that empirically define immunity parameters. This is of increasing significance in a climate of potential changing transmission dynamics following long-term implementation of MDA.
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26
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Turner HC, Truscott JE, Bettis AA, Farrell SH, Deol AK, Whitton JM, Fleming FM, Anderson RM. Evaluating the variation in the projected benefit of community-wide mass treatment for schistosomiasis: Implications for future economic evaluations. Parasit Vectors 2017; 10:213. [PMID: 28454578 PMCID: PMC5410074 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2141-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2016] [Accepted: 04/18/2017] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The majority of schistosomiasis control programmes focus on targeting school-aged children. Expanding the use of community-wide mass treatment to reach more adults is under consideration. However, it should be noted that this would require a further increase in programmatic resources, international aid, and commitment for the provision of praziquantel. Consequently, it is important to understand (i) where a change of strategy would have the greatest benefit, and (ii) how generalisable the conclusions of field trials and analytical studies based on mathematical models investigating the impact of community-wide mass treatment, are to a broad range of settings. Methods In this paper, we employ a previously described deterministic fully age-structured schistosomiasis transmission model and evaluate the benefit of community-wide mass treatment both in terms of controlling morbidity and eliminating transmission for Schistosoma mansoni, across a wide range of epidemiological settings and programmatic scenarios. This included variation in the baseline relative worm pre-control burden in adults, the overall level of transmission in defined settings, choice of effectiveness metric (basing morbidity calculations on prevalence or intensity), the level of school enrolment and treatment compliance. Results Community-wide mass treatment was found to be more effective for controlling the transmission of schistosome parasites than using a school-based programme only targeting school-aged children. However, in the context of morbidity control, the potential benefit of switching to community-wide mass treatment was highly variable across the different scenarios analysed. In contrast, for areas where the goal is to eliminate transmission, the projected benefit of community-wide mass treatment was more consistent. Conclusion Whether community-wide mass treatment is appropriate will depend on the local epidemiological setting (i.e. the relative pre-control burden in adults and transmission intensity), and whether the goal is morbidity control or eliminating transmission. This has important implications regarding the generalisability of cost-effectiveness analyses of schistosomiasis interventions. Our results indicate that areas with poor school-enrolment/coverage could benefit more from community-wide treatment of praziquantel and should potentially be prioritised for any change in strategy. This work highlights the importance of not over-generalising conclusions and policy in this area, but of basing decisions on high quality epidemiological data and quantitative analyses of the impact of interventions in a range of settings. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2141-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hugo C Turner
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK. .,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Marys Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK. .,Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. .,Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - James E Truscott
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Marys Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Alison A Bettis
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Marys Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Sam H Farrell
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Marys Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Arminder K Deol
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St. Mary's Campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Jane M Whitton
- Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St. Mary's Campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Fiona M Fleming
- Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St. Mary's Campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Marys Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
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