Predicting Ebola virus disease risk and the role of African bat birthing

Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens

Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Thus, we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens by predicting time windows of peak prevalence. Using simulated data sets, we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. Then, we demonstrate an implementation of our method using publicly available data from two putative Ebolavirus reservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats ( Eidolon helvum ) and hammer-headed bats ( Hypsignathus monstrosus ). We envision our method being used to guide the planning of field sampling to maximize the probability of detecting active infections, and in cases when longitudinal data is available, our method can also yield predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence.

Current and future environmental suitability for bats hosting potential zoonotic pathogens in rural Kenya

Synanthropic bats live in close proximity to humans and domestic animals, creating opportunities for potential pathogen spillover. We explored environmental correlates of occurrence for a widely distributed synanthropic African bat, Mops pumilus-a species associated with potential zoonotic viruses-and estimated current and future environmental suitability in the Taita Hills region and surrounding plains in Taita-Taveta County in southeast Kenya. To project future environmental suitability, we used four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 general circulation models that capture temperature and precipitation changes for East Africa. The models were parameterized with empirical capture data of M. pumilus collected from 2016 to 2023, combined with satellite-based vegetation, topographic, and climatic data to identify responses to environmental factors. The strongest drivers for current environmental suitability for M. pumilus were short distance to rivers, higher precipitation during the driest months, sparse vegetation-often related to urban areas-and low yearly temperature variation. To predict current and future areas suitable for M. pumilus, we created ensemble niche models, which yielded excellent predictive accuracies. Current suitable environments were located southward from the central and southern Taita Hills and surrounding plains, overlapping with urban centers with the highest human population densities in the area. Future projections for 2050 indicated a moderate increase in suitability range in the southern portion of the region and surrounding plains in human-dominated areas; however, projections for 2090 showed a slight contraction of environmental suitability for M. pumilus, potentially due to the negative impact of increased temperatures. These results show how environmental changes are likely to impact the human exposure risk of bat-borne pathogens and could help public health officials develop strategies to prevent these risks in Taita-Taveta County, Kenya, and other parts of Africa.

Kenyan Free-Tailed Bats Demonstrate Seasonal Birth Pulse Asynchrony with Implications for Virus Maintenance

Ecological information on wildlife reservoirs is fundamental for research targeting prevention of zoonotic infectious disease, yet basic information is lacking for many species in global hotspots of disease emergence. We provide the first estimates of synchronicity, magnitude, and timing of seasonal birthing in Mops condylurus, a putative ebolavirus host, and a co-roosting species, Mops pumilus (formerly Chaerephon pumilus). We show that population-level synchronicity of M. condylurus birthing is wide (~ 8.5 weeks) and even wider in M. pumilus (> 11 weeks). This is predicted to promote the likelihood of filovirus persistence under conditions of bi-annual birthing (two births per year). Ecological features underlying the magnitude of the birth pulse-relative female abundance (higher than expected for M. condylurus and lower for M. pumilus, based on literature) and reproductive rate (lower than expected)-will have countering effects on birthing magnitude. Species-specific models are needed to interpret how identified birth pulse attributes may interact with other features of molossid ebolavirus ecology to influence infection dynamics. As a common feature of wildlife species, and a key driver of infection dynamics, detailed information on seasonal birthing will be fundamental for future research on these species and will be informative for bat-borne zoonoses generally.

A global-scale dataset of bat viral detection suggests that pregnancy reduces viral shedding

Understanding viral infection dynamics in wildlife hosts can help forecast zoonotic pathogen spillover and human disease risk. Bats are particularly important reservoirs of zoonotic viruses, including some of major public health concern such as Nipah virus, Hendra virus, and SARS-related coronaviruses. Previous work has suggested that metapopulation dynamics, seasonal reproductive patterns, and other bat life history characteristics might explain temporal variation in spillover of bat-associated viruses into people. Here, we analyze viral dynamics in free-ranging bat hosts, leveraging a multi-year, global-scale viral detection dataset that spans eight viral families and 96 bat species from 14 countries. We fit hierarchical Bayesian models that explicitly control for important sources of variation, including geographic region, specimen type, and testing protocols, while estimating the influence of reproductive status on viral detection in female bats. Our models revealed that late pregnancy had a negative effect on viral shedding across multiple data subsets, while lactation had a weaker influence that was inconsistent across data subsets. These results are unusual for mammalian hosts, but given recent findings that bats may have high individual viral loads and population-level prevalence due to dampening of antiviral immunity, we propose that it would be evolutionarily advantageous for pregnancy to either not further reduce immunity or actually increase the immune response, reducing viral load, shedding, and risk of fetal infection. This novel hypothesis would be valuable to test given its potential to help monitor, predict, and manage viral spillover risk from bats.

Selective replication and vertical transmission of Ebola virus in experimentally infected Angolan free-tailed bats

The natural reservoir of Ebola virus (EBOV), agent of a zoonosis burdening several African countries, remains unidentified, albeit evidence points towards bats. In contrast, the ecology of the related Marburg virus is much better understood; with experimental infections of bats being instrumental for understanding reservoir-pathogen interactions. Experiments have focused on elucidating reservoir competence, infection kinetics and specifically horizontal transmission, although, vertical transmission plays a key role in many viral enzootic cycles. Herein, we investigate the permissiveness of Angolan free-tailed bats (AFBs), known to harbour Bombali virus, to other filoviruses: Ebola, Marburg, Taï Forest and Reston viruses. We demonstrate that only the bats inoculated with EBOV show high and disseminated viral replication and infectious virus shedding, without clinical disease, while the other filoviruses fail to establish productive infections. Notably, we evidence placental-specific tissue tropism and a unique ability of EBOV to traverse the placenta, infect and persist in foetal tissues of AFBs, which results in distinct genetic signatures of adaptive evolution. These findings not only demonstrate plausible routes of horizontal and vertical transmission in these bats, which are expectant of reservoir hosts, but may also reveal an ancillary transmission mechanism, potentially required for the maintenance of EBOV in small reservoir populations.

Robust evidence for bats as reservoir hosts is lacking in most African virus studies: a review and call to optimize sampling and conserve bats

Africa experiences frequent emerging disease outbreaks among humans, with bats often proposed as zoonotic pathogen hosts. We comprehensively reviewed virus-bat findings from papers published between 1978 and 2020 to evaluate the evidence that African bats are reservoir and/or bridging hosts for viruses that cause human disease. We present data from 162 papers (of 1322) with original findings on (1) numbers and species of bats sampled across bat families and the continent, (2) how bats were selected for study inclusion, (3) if bats were terminally sampled, (4) what types of ecological data, if any, were recorded and (5) which viruses were detected and with what methodology. We propose a scheme for evaluating presumed virus-host relationships by evidence type and quality, using the contrasting available evidence for Orthoebolavirus versus Orthomarburgvirus as an example. We review the wording in abstracts and discussions of all 162 papers, identifying key framing terms, how these refer to findings, and how they might contribute to people's beliefs about bats. We discuss the impact of scientific research communication on public perception and emphasize the need for strategies that minimize human-bat conflict and support bat conservation. Finally, we make recommendations for best practices that will improve virological study metadata.

Extensive Survey and Analysis of Factors Associated with Presence of Antibodies to Orthoebolaviruses in Bats from West and Central Africa

The seroprevalence to orthoebolaviruses was studied in 9594 bats (5972 frugivorous and 3622 insectivorous) from Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Guinea, with a Luminex-based serological assay including recombinant antigens of four orthoebolavirus species. Seroprevalence is expressed as a range according to different cut-off calculations. Between 6.1% and 18.9% bat samples reacted with at least one orthoebolavirus antigen; the highest reactivity was seen with Glycoprotein (GP) antigens. Seroprevalence varied per species and was higher in frugivorous than insectivorous bats; 9.1-27.5% versus 1.3-4.6%, respectively. Seroprevalence in male (13.5%) and female (14.4%) bats was only slightly different and was higher in adults (14.9%) versus juveniles (9.4%) (p < 0.001). Moreover, seroprevalence was highest in subadults (45.4%) when compared to mature adults (19.2%), (p < 0.001). Our data suggest orthoebolavirus circulation is highest in young bats. More long-term studies are needed to identify birthing pulses for the different bat species in diverse geographic regions and to increase the chances of detecting viral RNA in order to document the genetic diversity of filoviruses in bats and their pathogenic potential for humans. Frugivorous bats seem more likely to be reservoirs of orthoebolaviruses, but the role of insectivorous bats has also to be further examined.

Inequitable access to Ebola vaccines and the resurgence of Ebola in Africa: A state of arts review

The Ebola virus, a member of the filoviridae family of viruses, is responsible for causing Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) with a case fatality rate as high as 50%. The largest EVD outbreak was recorded in West Africa from March 2013 to June 2016, leading to over 28 000 cases and 11 000 deaths. It affected several countries, including Nigeria, Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Until then, EVD was predominantly reported in remote villages in central and west Africa close to tropical rainforests. Human mobility, behavioral and cultural norms, the use of bushmeat, burial customs, preference for traditional remedies and treatments, and resistance to health interventions are just a few of the social factors that considerably aid and amplify the risk of transmission. The scale and persistence of recent ebola outbreaks, as well as the risk of widespread global transmission and its ability for bioterrorism, have led to a rethinking of public health strategies to curb the disease, such as the expedition of Ebola vaccine production. However, as vaccine production lags in the subcontinent, among other challenges, the risk of another ebola outbreak is likely and feared by public health authorities in the region. This review describes the inequality of vaccine production in Africa and the resurgence of EVD, emphasizing the significance of health equality.

In silico method for predicting infectious strains of influenza A virus from its genome and protein sequences

Influenza A is a contagious viral disease responsible for four pandemics in the past and a major public health concern. Being zoonotic in nature, the virus can cross the species barrier and transmit from wild aquatic bird reservoirs to humans via intermediate hosts. In this study, we have developed a computational method for the prediction of human-associated and non-human-associated influenza A virus sequences. The models were trained and validated on proteins and genome sequences of influenza A virus. Firstly, we have developed prediction models for 15 types of influenza A proteins using composition-based and one-hot-encoding features. We have achieved a highest AUC of 0.98 for HA protein on a validation dataset using dipeptide composition-based features. Of note, we obtained a maximum AUC of 0.99 using one-hot-encoding features for protein-based models on a validation dataset. Secondly, we built models using whole genome sequences which achieved an AUC of 0.98 on a validation dataset. In addition, we showed that our method outperforms a similarity-based approach (i.e., blast) on the same validation dataset. Finally, we integrated our best models into a user-friendly web server 'FluSPred' (https://webs.iiitd.edu.in/raghava/fluspred/index.html) and a standalone version (https://github.com/raghavagps/FluSPred) for the prediction of human-associated/non-human-associated influenza A virus strains.

Seasonal shedding of coronavirus by straw-colored fruit bats at urban roosts in Africa

The straw-colored fruit bat (Eidolon helvum) is a pteropodid whose conservation is crucial for maintaining functional connectivity of plant populations in tropical Africa. Land conversion has pushed this species to adapt to roosting in urban centers across its range. These colonies often host millions of individuals, creating intensive human-bat contact interfaces that could facilitate the spillover of coronaviruses shed by these bats. A better understanding of coronavirus dynamics in these roosts is needed to identify peak times of exposure risk in order to propose evidence-based management that supports safe human-bat coexistence, as well as the conservation of this chiropteran. We studied the temporal patterns of coronavirus shedding in E. helvum, by testing thousands of longitudinally-collected fecal samples from two spatially distant urban roosts in Ghana and Tanzania. Shedding of coronaviruses peaked during the second part of pup weaning in both roosts. Assuming that coronavirus shedding is directly related to spillover risk, our results indicate that exposure mitigation should target reducing contact between people and E. helvum roosts during the pup "weaning" period. This recommendation can be applied across the many highly-populated urban sites occupied by E. helvum across Africa.

Zaire ebolavirus surveillance near the Bikoro region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the 2018 outbreak reveals presence of seropositive bats

On the 8th of May, 2018, an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) was declared, originating in the Bikoro region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) near the border with neighboring Republic of the Congo (ROC). Frequent trade and migration occur between DRC and ROC-based communities residing along the Congo River. In June 2018, a field team was deployed to determine whether Zaire ebolavirus (Ebola virus (EBOV)) was contemporaneously circulating in local bats at the human-animal interface in ROC near the Bikoro EVD outbreak. Samples were collected from bats in the Cuvette and Likouala departments, ROC, bordering the Équateur Province in DRC where the Bikoro EVD outbreak was first detected. EBOV genomic material was not detected in bat-derived samples by targeted quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction or by family-level consensus polymerase chain reaction; however, serological data suggests recent exposure to EBOV in bats in the region. We collected serum from 144 bats in the Cuvette department with 6.9% seropositivity against the EBOV glycoprotein and 14.3% seropositivity for serum collected from 27 fruit bats and one Molossinae in the Likouala department. We conclude that proactive investment in longitudinal sampling for filoviruses at the human-animal interface, coupled with ecological investigations are needed to identify EBOV wildlife reservoirs.

COVID-19 During Development: A Matter of Concern

A new infectious disease, COVID-19, has spread around the world. The most common symptoms of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are cough and fever, but severe cases can develop acute respiratory distress syndrome. The main receptor for SARS-CoV-2 in human tissue is angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, and the lungs, heart, and kidneys are the most affected organs. Besides the inflammatory process and tissue damage, the presence of a cytokine "storm" has been related to a higher mortality rate. Other infectious viral diseases, such as Zika, chikungunya, and influenza, were associated with complications in pregnant women, such as growth restriction, malformation, preterm birth, low birth weight, miscarriage, and death, although they can also cause developmental disorders in infants and adolescents. Evidence points out that stressors during pregnancy and infancy may lead to the development of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Therefore, we hypothesize that COVID-19 infection during the critical phases of development can program the individual to chronic diseases in adulthood. It is important that COVID-19 patients receive proper monitoring as a way to avoid expensive costs to public health in the future.

Wildlife-pet markets in a one-health context

Background and Aim: Wildlife markets are centers of trade involving live animals and their derivatives from wild-caught and captive-bred non-domesticated animals, including for the culinary, fashion, traditional medicine, curio, and pet sectors. These markets occur in Southeast Asia, India, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and elsewhere. This study aims to address a diversity of related issues that have a one-health bearing while focusing on wildlife markets in relation to the pet trade. Across relevant regions and countries, all major animal classes are traded at wildlife-pet markets. Wildlife markets, in general, are considered distinct from so-called "wet markets" at which domesticated animals, fish, and other "seafood" are offered only for consumption. Several aspects of wildlife markets have attracted scientific and popular scrutiny, including animal welfare concerns, species conservation threats, legality, ecological alteration, introduction of invasive alien species, presence of undescribed species, and public and agricultural animal health issues. Materials and Methods: Onsite inspections were conducted for markets in the United States, Spain, Germany, The Netherlands, and the UK, as well as observational research of visual imagery of market conditions, and we compared these conditions with evidence-based standards for animal welfare and public health management. Results: Wildlife markets globally shared common similar structures and practices including the presence of sick, injured, or stressed animals; mixing of animals of uncertain origin and health state; and no specific or any hygiene protocols, with issues of animal welfare, public health and safety, agricultural animal health, and other one-health concerns being inherently involved. Conclusion: We conclude that wildlife markets are incompatible with responsible standards and practices, and we recommend that such events are banned globally to ameliorate inherent major problems.

Preserve a Voucher Specimen! The Critical Need for Integrating Natural History Collections in Infectious Disease Studies

Despite being nearly 10 months into the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic, the definitive animal host for SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), the causal agent of COVID-19, remains unknown. Unfortunately, similar problems exist for other betacoronaviruses, and no vouchered specimens exist to corroborate host species identification for most of these pathogens. This most basic information is critical to the full understanding and mitigation of emerging zoonotic diseases. To overcome this hurdle, we recommend that host-pathogen researchers adopt vouchering practices and collaborate with natural history collections to permanently archive microbiological samples and host specimens. Vouchered specimens and associated samples provide both repeatability and extension to host-pathogen studies, and using them mobilizes a large workforce (i.e., biodiversity scientists) to assist in pandemic preparedness. We review several well-known examples that successfully integrate host-pathogen research with natural history collections (e.g., yellow fever, hantaviruses, helminths). However, vouchering remains an underutilized practice in such studies. Using an online survey, we assessed vouchering practices used by microbiologists (e.g., bacteriologists, parasitologists, virologists) in host-pathogen research. A much greater number of respondents permanently archive microbiological samples than archive host specimens, and less than half of respondents voucher host specimens from which microbiological samples were lethally collected. To foster collaborations between microbiologists and natural history collections, we provide recommendations for integrating vouchering techniques and archiving of microbiological samples into host-pathogen studies. This integrative approach exemplifies the premise underlying One Health initiatives, providing critical infrastructure for addressing related issues ranging from public health to global climate change and the biodiversity crisis.

Nipah virus dynamics in bats and implications for spillover to humans

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging bat-borne zoonotic virus that causes near-annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in South Asia-one of the most populous regions on Earth. In Bangladesh, infection occurs when people drink date-palm sap contaminated with bat excreta. Outbreaks are sporadic, and the influence of viral dynamics in bats on their temporal and spatial distribution is poorly understood. We analyzed data on host ecology, molecular epidemiology, serological dynamics, and viral genetics to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of NiV dynamics in its wildlife reservoir, Pteropus medius bats, in Bangladesh. We found that NiV transmission occurred throughout the country and throughout the year. Model results indicated that local transmission dynamics were modulated by density-dependent transmission, acquired immunity that is lost over time, and recrudescence. Increased transmission followed multiyear periods of declining seroprevalence due to bat-population turnover and individual loss of humoral immunity. Individual bats had smaller host ranges than other Pteropus species (spp.), although movement data and the discovery of a Malaysia-clade NiV strain in eastern Bangladesh suggest connectivity with bats east of Bangladesh. These data suggest that discrete multiannual local epizootics in bat populations contribute to the sporadic nature of NiV outbreaks in South Asia. At the same time, the broad spatial and temporal extent of NiV transmission, including the recent outbreak in Kerala, India, highlights the continued risk of spillover to humans wherever they may interact with pteropid bats and the importance of limiting opportunities for spillover throughout Pteropus's range.

What We Need to Consider During and After the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

Even though extreme containment and mitigation strategies were implemented by numerous governments around the world to slow down the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the number of critically ill patients and fatalities keeps rising. This crisis has highlighted the socioeconomic disparities of health care systems within and among countries. As new CoVID policies and responses are implemented to lessen the impact of the virus, it is imperative (1) to consider additional mitigation strategies critical for the development of effective countermeasures, (2) to promote long-term policies and strict regulations of the trade of wildlife and live animal markets, and (3) to advocate for necessary funding and investments in global health, specifically for the prevention of and response to natural and manmade pandemics. This document considers some of these challenges.