Psychosis prediction in secondary mental health services. A broad, comprehensive approach to the "at risk mental state" syndrome

Screening for psychotic experiences and psychotic disorders in general psychiatric settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The absence of systematic screening for psychosis within general psychiatric services contribute to substantial treatment delays and poor long-term outcomes. We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate rates of psychotic experiences, clinical high-risk for psychosis syndrome (CHR-P), and psychotic disorders identified by screening treatment-seeking individuals to inform implementation recommendations for routine psychosis screening in general psychiatric settings.

Methods

PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched to identify empirical studies that contained information on the point prevalence of psychotic experiences, CHR-P, or psychotic disorders identified by screening inpatient and outpatient samples aged 12-64 receiving general psychiatric care. Psychotic experiences were identified by meeting threshold scores on validated self-reported questionnaires, and psychotic disorders and CHR-P by gold-standard structured interview assessments. A meta-analysis of each outcome was conducted using the Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimator method of estimating effect sizes in a random effects model.

Results

41 independent samples (k=36 outpatient) involving n=25,751 patients (58% female, mean age: 24.1 years) were included. Among a general psychiatric population, prevalence of psychotic experiences was 44.3% (95% CI: 35.8-52.8%; 28 samples, n=21,957); CHR-P was 26.4% (95% CI: 20.0-32.7%; 28 samples, n=14,395); and psychotic disorders was 6.6% (95% CI: 3.3-9.8%; 32 samples, n=20,371).

Conclusions

High rates of psychotic spectrum illness in general psychiatric settings underscore need for secondary prevention with psychosis screening. These base rates can be used to plan training and resources required to conduct assessments for early detection, as well as build capacity in interventions for CHR-P and early psychosis in non-specialty mental health settings.

Network Meta-Analysis Indicates Superior Effects of Omega-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids in Preventing the Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High-Risk

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of pharmacological and nutritional interventions in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) remains elusive. This study aims to investigate the efficacy of pharmacological and nutritional interventions in CHR-P and whether these interventions can enhance the efficacy of psychological treatments.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed data from 5 databases until July 24, 2021: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and WanFang Data. The primary outcome was the transition to psychosis. Network meta-analyses were conducted at 3 time points (6, 12, and ≥24 months) considering both pharmacological/nutritional interventions alone and its combination with psychotherapy.

RESULTS

Out of 11 417 identified references, 21 studies were included, comprising 1983 participants. CHR-P participants receiving omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids treatment were associated with a lower probability of transition compared with placebo/control at 6 months (odds ratio [OR] = 0.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = .01 to .054), 12 months (OR = 0.14, 95% CI = .03 to .66), and ≥24 months (OR = 0.16, 95% CI = .05 to .54). Moreover, risperidone plus psychotherapy was associated with a lower likelihood of transition at 6 months compared with placebo/control plus psychotherapy, but this result was not sustained over longer durations.

CONCLUSION

Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids helped in preventing transitions to psychosis compared with controls.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021256209.

Baseline benzodiazepine exposure is associated with greater risk of transition in clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P): a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging meta-analytical evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics and to antidepressants in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) have opposite prognostic effects as regards imminent transition to psychosis, with antipsychotics associated with higher risk and antidepressants associated with a lower risk in comparison to not-exposed individuals. Despite their common use, baseline exposure to benzodiazepines (BDZ) in CHR-P has surprisingly received poor attention as a potential risk modulator for transition to psychosis. The current systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to fix such a knowledge gap.

METHODS

Systematic scrutiny of Medline and Cochrane library, performed up to 31 December 2022, searching for English-language studies on CHR-P reporting numeric data about the sample, the transition outcome at a predefined follow-up time and raw data on BDZ baseline exposure in relation to such outcome.

RESULTS

Of 1893 identified records, five studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The proportion of participants with exposure to BDZ at baseline ranged from 5.5% (one study) to 46.2%, with an average of 16.8%. At the end of the period of observation, i.e., the follow-up as reported in the study, 28.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 19.7-39.1%] participants developed psychosis among the BDZ-exposed against 9.3% (7.3 to 11.9%) among the controls. CHR-P participants who were already under BDZ treatment at baseline had more than double chance of transition to psychosis than CHR-P participants who were BDZ-naïve. The risk ratio (RR) was 2.42 (95% CI 1.38-4.23) in the common effects model (z = 3.09; p = 0.002), and 2.40 (1.53 to 3.77) in the random-effects model (z = 5.40; p = 0.006; tau-squared = 0.0). There was no relevant heterogeneity: Cochran's Q = 1.49; df = 4; p = 0.828; I2 = 0.0% (95% CI 0.0-79%). Quality was good in four studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing BDZ exposure at inception in CHR-P is associated with a higher risk of transition to psychosis at follow up. This meta-analytic association, which echoes a similar effect of baseline antipsychotic exposure, plausibly indicates that the clinicians' prescription of pharmacological intervention captures some form of prognostically-relevant information (e.g. an anxiety permeated mental state requiring BDZ prescription) that are not adequately encompassed by current CHR-P categorical criteria.

Do antidepressants prevent transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR-P)? Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging meta-analytical evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is associated with a higher risk of an imminent transition to psychosis. Despite their tolerability profile and potential beneficial effects, baseline exposure to antidepressants (AD) in CHR-P has surprisingly received far less attention as a potential risk modulator for transition to psychosis. The current systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to fix such a knowledge gap.

METHODS

Systematic scrutiny of Medline and Cochrane library, performed up to 1 August 2021, searching for English-language studies on CHR-P reporting numeric data about the sample, the transition outcome at a predefined follow-up time and raw data on AD baseline exposure in relation to such outcome.

RESULTS

Of 1942 identified records, 16 studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. 26% of the participants were already exposed to AD at baseline; at the end of the follow-up 13.5% (95% CI 10.2-17.1%) of them (n = 448) transitioned to psychosis against 21.0% (18.9 to 23.3%) of non-AD exposed CHR-P (n = 1371). CHR-P participants who were already under AD treatment at baseline had a lower risk of transition than non-AD exposed CHR-P. The RR was 0.71 (95% CI 0.56-0.90) in the fixed-effects model (z = -2.79; p = 0.005), and 0.78 (0.58-1.05) in the random-effects model (z = -1.77; p = 0.096; tau-squared = 0.059). There was no relevant heterogeneity (Cochran's Q = 18.45; df = 15; p = 0.239; I2 = 18.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing AD exposure at inception in CHR-P is associated to a reduced risk of transition to psychosis at follow up.

Prognostic accuracy and clinical utility of psychometric instruments for individuals at clinical high-risk of psychosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Accurate prognostication of individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is an essential initial step for effective primary indicated prevention. We aimed to summarise the prognostic accuracy and clinical utility of CHR-P assessments for primary indicated psychosis prevention. Web of Knowledge databases were searched until 1st January 2022 for longitudinal studies following-up individuals undergoing a psychometric or diagnostic CHR-P assessment, reporting transition to psychotic disorders in both those who meet CHR-P criteria (CHR-P + ) or not (CHR-P-). Prognostic accuracy meta-analysis was conducted following relevant guidelines. Primary outcome was prognostic accuracy, indexed by area-under-the-curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity, estimated by the number of true positives, false positives, false negatives and true negatives at the longest available follow-up time. Clinical utility analyses included: likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram, and population-level preventive capacity (Population Attributable Fraction, PAF). A total of 22 studies (n = 4 966, 47.5% female, age range 12-40) were included. There were not enough meta-analysable studies on CHR-P diagnostic criteria (DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome) or non-clinical samples. Prognostic accuracy of CHR-P psychometric instruments in clinical samples (individuals referred to CHR-P services or diagnosed with 22q.11.2 deletion syndrome) was excellent: AUC = 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81-0.88) at a mean follow-up time of 34 months. This result was driven by outstanding sensitivity (0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-0.96) and poor specificity (0.58, 95% CI: 0.50-0.66). Being CHR-P + was associated with a small likelihood ratio LR + (2.17, 95% CI: 1.81-2.60) for developing psychosis. Being CHR-P- was associated with a large LR- (0.11, 95%CI: 0.06-0.21) for developing psychosis. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive (0.0017%) and negative (0.0001%) post-test risk in non-clinical general population samples. The PAF of the CHR-P state is 10.9% (95% CI: 4.1-25.5%). These findings consolidate the use of psychometric instruments for CHR-P in clinical samples for primary indicated prevention of psychosis. Future research should improve the ability to rule in psychosis risk.

Pineal morphology of the clinical high-risk state for psychosis and different psychotic disorders

BACKGROUND

Pineal volume reductions have been reported in schizophrenia and clinical high-risk states for the development of psychosis, supporting the role of melatonin dysregulation in the pathophysiology of psychosis. However, it remains unclear whether pineal volume is associated with the later onset of psychosis in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) of psychosis or if pineal atrophy is specific to schizophrenia among different psychotic disorders.

METHODS

This magnetic resonance imaging study examined the volume of and cyst prevalence in the pineal gland in 135 individuals at CHR of psychosis [52 (38.5%) subsequently developed psychosis], 162 with first-episode psychosis (FEP), 89 with chronic schizophrenia, and 87 healthy controls. The potential contribution of the pineal morphology to clinical characteristics was also examined in the CHR and FEP groups.

RESULTS

Pineal volumes did not differ significantly between the CHR, FEP, and chronic schizophrenia groups, but were significantly smaller than that in healthy controls. However, pineal volumes were not associated with the later onset of psychosis in the CHR group or FEP sub-diagnosis (i.e., schizophrenia, schizophreniform disorder, affective psychosis, and other psychoses). No significant differences were observed in the prevalence of pineal cysts between the groups, and it also did not correlate with clinical characteristics in the CHR and FEP groups.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that pineal atrophy is a general vulnerability marker of psychosis, while pineal cysts do not appear to contribute to the pathophysiology of psychosis.

A systematic review of the prognostic value of motor abnormalities on clinical outcome in psychosis

Schizophrenia spectrum disorders have heterogeneous outcomes and currently no marker predicts the course of illness. Motor abnormalities (MAs) are inherent to psychosis, the risk of psychosis, symptom severity, and brain alterations. However, the prognostic value of MAs is still unresolved. Here, we provide a systematic review of longitudinal studies on the prognostic role of MAs spanning individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR), patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP), and chronic schizophrenia. We included 68 studies for a total of 23,630 subjects that assessed neurological soft signs (NSS), hypo- or hyperkinetic movement disorders and/or catatonia as a prognostic factor on clinical and functional outcomes. We found increased levels of MAs, in particular NSS, parkinsonism, and dyskinesia, were related to deteriorating symptomatic and poor functional outcome over time. Collectively, the findings emphasize the clinical, prognostic and scientific relevance of MA assessment and detection in individuals with or at risk of psychosis. In the future, instrumental measures of MA are expected to further augment detection, early intervention and treatment strategies in psychosis.

Prevalence of Individuals at Clinical High-Risk of Psychosis in the General Population and Clinical Samples: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) The consistency and magnitude of the prevalence of Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) individuals are undetermined, limiting efficient detection of cases. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of CHR-P individuals systematically assessed in the general population or clinical samples. (2) PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant (PROSPERO: CRD42020168672) meta-analysis of multiple databases until 21/01/21: a random-effects model meta-analysis, heterogeneity analysis, publication bias and quality assessment, sensitivity analysis—according to the gold-standard CHR-P and pre-screening instruments—leave-one-study-out analyses, and meta-regressions were conducted. (3) 35 studies were included, with 37,135 individuals tested and 1554 CHR-P individuals identified (median age = 19.3 years, Interquartile range (IQR) = 15.8–22.1; 52.2% females, IQR = 38.7–64.4). In the general population (k = 13, n = 26,835 individuals evaluated), the prevalence of the CHR-P state was 1.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.0–2.9%). In clinical samples (k = 22, n = 10,300 individuals evaluated), the prevalence of the CHR-P state was 19.2% (95% CI = 12.9–27.7%). Using a pre-screening instrument was associated with false negatives (5.6%, 95% CI = 2.2–13.3%) and a lower CHR-P prevalence (11.5%, 95% CI = 6.2–20.5%) compared to using CHR-P instruments only (28.5%, 95% CI = 23.0–34.7%, p = 0.003). (4) The prevalence of the CHR-P state is low in the general population and ten times higher in clinical samples. The prevalence of CHR-P may increase with a higher proportion of females in the general population and with a younger population in clinical samples. The CHR-P state may be unrecognized in routine clinical practice. These findings can refine detection and preventive strategies.

Negative Prognostic Effect of Baseline Antipsychotic Exposure in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P): Is Pre-Test Risk Enrichment the Hidden Culprit?

INTRODUCTION

Sample enrichment is a key factor in contemporary early-detection strategies aimed at the identification of help-seekers at increased risk of imminent transition to psychosis. We undertook a meta-analytic investigation to ascertain the role of sample enrichment in the recently highlighted negative prognostic effect of baseline antipsychotic (AP) exposure in clinical high-risk (CHR-P) of psychosis individuals.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis of all published studies on CHR-P were identified according to a validated diagnostic procedure. The outcome was the proportion of transition to psychosis, which was calculated according to the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation.

RESULTS

Thirty-three eligible studies were identified, including 16 samples with details on AP exposure at baseline and 17 samples with baseline AP exposure as exclusion criterion for enrollment. Those with baseline exposure to AP (n = 395) had higher transition rates (29.9%; 95% CI: 25.1%-34.8%) than those without baseline exposure to AP in the same study (n = 1289; 17.2%; 15.1%-19.4%) and those coming from samples that did not include people who were exposed to AP at baseline (n = 2073; 16.2%; 14.6%-17.8%; P < .05 in both the fixed-effects and the random-effects models). Heterogeneity within studies was substantial, with values above 75% in all comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

Sample enrichment is not a plausible explanation for the higher risk of transition to psychosis of CHR-P individuals who were already exposed to AP at the enrollment in specialized early-detection programs. Baseline exposure to AP at CHR-P assessment is a major index of enhanced, imminent risk of psychosis.

Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry

Prediction and prevention of negative clinical and functional outcomes represent the two primary objectives of research conducted within the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm. Several multivariable "risk calculator" models have been developed to predict the likelihood of developing psychosis, although these models have not been translated to clinical use. Overall, less progress has been made in developing effective interventions. In this paper, we review the existing literature on both prediction and prevention in the CHR-P paradigm and, primarily, outline ways in which expanding and combining these paths of inquiry could lead to a greater improvement in individual outcomes for those most at risk.

Individualized Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Patients With Psychosis Risk Syndromes: A Meta-analytic View on the State of the Art

BACKGROUND

The clinical high risk (CHR) paradigm has facilitated research into the underpinnings of help-seeking individuals at risk for developing psychosis, aiming at predicting and possibly preventing transition to the overt disorder. Statistical methods such as machine learning and Cox regression have provided the methodological basis for this research by enabling the construction of diagnostic models (i.e., distinguishing CHR individuals from healthy individuals) and prognostic models (i.e., predicting a future outcome) based on different data modalities, including clinical, neurocognitive, and neurobiological data. However, their translation to clinical practice is still hindered by the high heterogeneity of both CHR populations and methodologies applied.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the literature on diagnostic and prognostic models built on Cox regression and machine learning. Furthermore, we conducted a meta-analysis on prediction performances investigating heterogeneity of methodological approaches and data modality.

RESULTS

A total of 44 articles were included, covering 3707 individuals for prognostic studies and 1052 individuals for diagnostic studies (572 CHR patients and 480 healthy control subjects). CHR patients could be classified against healthy control subjects with 78% sensitivity and 77% specificity. Across prognostic models, sensitivity reached 67% and specificity reached 78%. Machine learning models outperformed those applying Cox regression by 10% sensitivity. There was a publication bias for prognostic studies yet no other moderator effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results may be driven by substantial clinical and methodological heterogeneity currently affecting several aspects of the CHR field and limiting the clinical implementability of the proposed models. We discuss conceptual and methodological harmonization strategies to facilitate more reliable and generalizable models for future clinical practice.

The Global Functioning: Social and Role Scales-Further Validation in a Large Sample of Adolescents and Young Adults at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

OBJECTIVE

Traditional measures for assessing functioning with adult patients with schizophrenia have been shown to be insufficient for assessing the issues that occur in adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. The current study provides an expanded validation of the Global Functioning: Social (GF:Social) and Role (GF:Role) scales developed specifically for use with CHR individuals and explores the reliability and accuracy of the ratings, the validity of the scores in comparison to other established clinical measures, stability of functioning over a 2-year period, and psychosis predictive ability.

METHODS

Seven hundred fifty-five CHR individuals and 277 healthy control (HC) participants completed the GF:Social and Role scales at baseline as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2).

RESULTS

Inter-rater reliability and accuracy were high for both scales. Correlations between the GF scores and other established clinical measures demonstrated acceptable convergent and discriminant validity. In addition, GF:Social and Role scores were unrelated to positive symptoms. CHR participants showed large impairments in social and role functioning over 2-years, relative to the HCs, even after adjusting for age, IQ, and attenuated positive symptoms. Finally, social decline prior to baseline was more pronounced in CHR converters, relative to non-converters.

CONCLUSIONS

The GF scales can be administered in a large-scale multi-site study with excellent inter-rater reliability and accuracy. CHR individuals showed social and role functioning impairments over time that were not confounded by positive symptom severity levels. The results of this study demonstrate that social decline is a particularly effective predictor of conversion outcome.

Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state

Objective:

The predictive accuracy of the Clinical High Risk criteria for Psychosis (CHR-P) regarding the future development of the disorder remains suboptimal. It is therefore necessary to incorporate refined risk estimation tools which can be applied at the individual subject level. The aim of the study was to develop an easy-to use, short refined risk estimation tool to predict the development of psychosis in a new CHR-P cohort recruited in European country with less established early detection services.

Methods:

A cohort of 105 CHR-P individuals was assessed with the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States12/2006, and then followed for a median period of 36 months (25th-75th percentile:10–59 months) for transition to psychosis. A multivariate Cox regression model predicting transition was generated with preselected clinical predictors and was internally validated with 1000 bootstrap resamples.

Results:

Speech disorganization and unusual thought content were selected as potential predictors of conversion on the basis of published literature. The prediction model was significant (p < 0.0001) and confirmed that both speech disorganization (HR = 1.69; 95%CI: 1.39–2.05) and unusual thought content (HR = 1.51; 95%CI: 1.27–1.80) were significantly associated with transition. The prognostic accuracy of the model was adequate (Harrell’s c- index = 0.79), even after optimism correction through internal validation procedures (Harrell’s c-index = 0.78).

Conclusions:

The clinical prediction model developed, and internally validated, herein to predict transition from a CHR-P to psychosis may be a promising tool for use in clinical settings. It has been incorporated into an online tool available at:https://link.konsta.com.pl/psychosis. Future external replication studies are needed.

Factors Associated With Psychosocial Functioning and Outcome of Individuals With Recent-Onset Schizophrenia and at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis

Background: Patients with schizophrenia have impairments in social functioning and are readmitted to healthcare institutions frequently. Individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis already present poor social functioning; among those individuals, the conversion rate from the putative prodromal phase to overt psychosis is 20%-30% within 1-2 years. Here, we analyzed the factor structure of self-related variables and neuro- and socio-cognitive function, and investigated whether these factors were associated with psychosocial function and prognostic outcome in individuals with recent-onset schizophrenia (ROSPR) or at UHR for psychosis. Methods: We evaluated 60 individuals at UHR for psychosis, 47 individuals with ROSPR, and 71 healthy controls using a comprehensive neurocognitive test battery and self-reported attribution scales, self-esteem, resilience, aberrant subjective experiences of schizotypy (physical anhedonia, social anhedonia, magical ideation, and perceptual aberration), and basic symptoms. We assessed psychosocial function with the Quality of Life Scale (QLS). Results: Factor analysis of all subjects revealed a four-factor structure comprising social-cognitive bias, reflective self, neurocognition, and pre-reflective self factors. Multiple regression analysis at baseline revealed that the factor structure predicted QLS. In the UHR group, social-cognitive bias, reflective self, neurocognition, and negative symptoms were significant determinants, explaining 38.0% of total QLS score variance. In the ROSPR group, reflective self and negative symptoms were significant determinants, explaining 54.4% of total QLS score variance. During follow-up, 13 individuals at UHR for psychosis developed psychosis (cumulative prevalence: 31.2% ± 7.6% at 6 years), with neurocognition score at baseline remaining a significant predictor of conversion [χ²(1) = 4.009, p = 0.045; hazard ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.31-0.99, p = 0.048]. Five patients with schizophrenia were (re)admitted during follow-up (cumulative prevalence: 16.1% ± 7.1% at 6 years); no factor was found to predict (re)admission. Conclusion: Factor analysis revealed an intrinsic four-factor structure of social-cognitive bias, reflective self, neurocognition, and pre-reflective self. The four factors were associated with social functioning at baseline and prodrome-to-psychosis conversion during follow-up, indicating the clinical significance of the four-factor structure. These findings provide a framework for understanding schizophrenia.

Early intervention for everyone? A review of cross-cultural issues and their treatment in ultra-high-risk (UHR) cohorts

AIM

Over the past 20 years, early management of psychosis has become both a research and policy priority. In Western countries, psychotic disorders appear more prevalent in migrant and minority ethnic groups than in native or dominant groups. Moreover, disparities exist in health conditions and access to care among immigrants and minority ethnic groups, compared with native-born and majority groups. Appropriate early detection tools are necessary for the different groups.

METHODS

This systematic review provides a synthesis of the assessment and discussion of transcultural issues in ultra-high-risk (UHR) cohorts. The Medline database was searched via PubMed for peer-reviewed articles published in English from 1995 to 2017. All 79 studies included are prospective UHR cohort studies that used the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS).

RESULTS

In UHR cohort studies that used the CAARMS, transcultural data (native language, ethnicity, place of birth, migration) are rarely collected, and inadequate ability to speak the dominant language is a common exclusion criterion. When they are included, the CAARMS scores differ between some minorities and the native-born majority group.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review demonstrates barriers to the access to participation in early intervention research for migrants and ethnic minorities. This selection bias may result in lower validity for the CAARMS among these populations and thus in inadequate intervention programmes. Along with targeted studies, minorities' access to participation in UHR cohorts should be improved through 3 tools: interpreters at recruitment and for administration of CAARMS, a guide to cultural formulation and transcultural data collection.

Meta-analytical prognostic accuracy of the Comprehensive Assessment of at Risk Mental States (CAARMS): The need for refined prediction

Primary indicated prevention is reliant on accurate tools to predict the onset of psychosis. The gold standard assessment for detecting individuals at clinical high risk (CHR-P) for psychosis in the UK and many other countries is the Comprehensive Assessment for At Risk Mental States (CAARMS). While the prognostic accuracy of CHR-P instruments has been assessed in general, this is the first study to specifically analyse that of the CAARMS. As such, the CAARMS was used as the index test, with the reference index being psychosis onset within 2 years. Six independent studies were analysed using MIDAS (STATA 14), with a total of 1876 help-seeking subjects referred to high risk services (CHR-P+: n=892; CHR-P-: n=984). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves (SROC), quality assessment, likelihood ratios, and probability modified plots were computed, along with sensitivity analyses and meta-regressions. The current meta-analysis confirmed that the 2-year prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS is only acceptable (AUC=0.79 95% CI: 0.75-0.83) and not outstanding as previously reported. In particular, specificity was poor. Sensitivity of the CAARMS is inferior compared to the SIPS, while specificity is comparably low. However, due to the difficulties in performing these types of studies, power in this meta-analysis was low. These results indicate that refining and improving the prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS should be the mainstream area of research for the next era. Avenues of prediction improvement are critically discussed and presented to better benefit patients and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis.

Development and Validation of a Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Transdiagnostic Prediction of Psychosis

Importance

The overall effect of At Risk Mental State (ARMS) services for the detection of individuals who will develop psychosis in secondary mental health care is undetermined.

Objective

To measure the proportion of individuals with a first episode of psychosis detected by ARMS services in secondary mental health services, and to develop and externally validate a practical web-based individualized risk calculator tool for the transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Clinical register-based cohort study. Patients were drawn from electronic, real-world, real-time clinical records relating to 2008 to 2015 routine secondary mental health care in the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust. The study included all patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust in the period between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015. Data analysis began on September 1, 2016.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Risk of development of nonorganic International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision psychotic disorders.

Results

A total of 91 199 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust were included in the derivation (n = 33 820) or external validation (n = 54 716) data sets. The mean age was 32.97 years, 50.88% were men, and 61.05% were white race/ethnicity. The mean follow-up was 1588 days. The overall 6-year risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care was 3.02 (95% CI, 2.88-3.15), which is higher than the 6-year risk in the local general population (0.62). Compared with the ARMS designation, all of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision diagnoses showed a lower risk of psychosis, with the exception of bipolar mood disorders (similar risk) and brief psychotic episodes (higher risk). The ARMS designation accounted only for a small proportion of transitions to psychosis (n = 52 of 1001; 5.19% in the derivation data set), indicating the need for transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care. A prognostic risk stratification model based on preselected variables, including index diagnosis, age, sex, age by sex, and race/ethnicity, was developed and externally validated, showing good performance and potential clinical usefulness.

Conclusions and Relevance

This online individualized risk calculator can be of clinical usefulness for the transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care. The risk calculator can help to identify those patients at risk of developing psychosis who require an ARMS assessment and specialized care. The use of this calculator may eventually facilitate the implementation of an individualized provision of preventive focused interventions and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis.