Causal effects of cardiovascular risk factors on onset of major age-related diseases: A time-to-event Mendelian randomization study

The effect of heavy smoking on retirement risk: A mendelian randomisation analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The extent to which heavy smoking and retirement risk are causally related remains to be determined. To overcome the endogeneity of heavy smoking behaviour, we employed a novel approach by exploiting the genetic predisposition to heavy smoking, as measured with a polygenic risk score (PGS), in a Mendelian Randomisation approach.

METHODS

8164 participants (mean age 68.86 years) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing had complete data on smoking behaviour, employment and a heavy smoking PGS. Heavy smoking was indexed as smoking at least 20 cigarettes a day. A time-to-event Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis, using a complementary log-log (cloglog) link function, was employed to model the retirement risk.

RESULTS

Our results show that being a heavy smoker significantly increases the risk of retirement (β = 1.324, standard error = 0.622, p < 0.05). Results were robust to a battery of checks and a placebo analysis considering the never-smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our findings support a causal pathway from heavy smoking to earlier retirement.

Cholesterol associated genetic risk score and acute coronary syndrome in Czech males

BACKGROUND

Despite a general decline in mean levels across populations, LDL-cholesterol levels remain a major risk factor for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The APOB, LDL-R, CILP, and SORT-1 genes have been shown to contain variants that have significant effects on plasma cholesterol levels.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined polymorphisms within these genes in 1191 controls and 929 patients with ACS. Only rs646776 within SORT-1 was significantly associated with a risk of ACS (P < 0.05, AA vs. + G comparison; OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.01-1.45). With regard to genetic risk score (GRS), the presence of at least 7 alleles associated with elevated cholesterol levels was connected with increased risk (P < 0.01) of ACS (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.06-1.52). Neither total mortality nor CVD mortality in ACS subjects (follow up-9.84 ± 3.82 years) was associated with the SNPs analysed or cholesterol-associated GRS.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that, based on only a few potent SNPs known to affect plasma cholesterol, GRS has the potential to predict ACS risk, but not ACS associated mortality.

Exogenous exposures shape genetic predisposition to lipids, Alzheimer's, and coronary heart disease in the MLXIPL gene locus

Associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the MLXIPL lipid gene with Alzheimer's (AD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) and potentially causal mediation effects of their risk factors, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (TG), were examined in two samples of European ancestry from the US (22,712 individuals 587/2,608 AD/CHD cases) and the UK Biobank (UKB) (232,341 individuals; 809/15,269 AD/CHD cases). Our results suggest that these associations can be regulated by several biological mechanisms and shaped by exogenous exposures. Two patterns of associations (represented by rs17145750 and rs6967028) were identified. Minor alleles of rs17145750 and rs6967028 demonstrated primary (secondary) association with high TG (lower HDL-C) and high HDL-C (lower TG) levels, respectively. The primary association explained ~50% of the secondary one suggesting partly independent mechanisms of TG and HDL-C regulation. The magnitude of the association of rs17145750 with HDL-C was significantly higher in the US vs. UKB sample and likely related to differences in exogenous exposures in the two countries. rs17145750 demonstrated a significant detrimental indirect effect through TG on AD risk in the UKB only (βIE = 0.015, pIE = 1.9 × 10-3), which suggests protective effects of high TG levels against AD, likely shaped by exogenous exposures. Also, rs17145750 demonstrated significant protective indirect effects through TG and HDL-C in the associations with CHD in both samples. In contrast, rs6967028 demonstrated an adverse mediation effect through HDL-C on CHD risk in the US sample only (βIE = 0.019, pIE = 8.6 × 10-4). This trade-off suggests different roles of triglyceride mediated mechanisms in the pathogenesis of AD and CHD.

Semiparametric regression analysis of bivariate censored events in a family study of Alzheimer's disease

Assessing disease comorbidity patterns in families represents the first step in gene mapping for diseases and is central to the practice of precision medicine. One way to evaluate the relative contributions of genetic risk factor and environmental determinants of a complex trait (e.g., Alzheimer's disease [AD]) and its comorbidities (e.g., cardiovascular diseases [CVD]) is through familial studies, where an initial cohort of subjects are recruited, genotyped for specific loci, and interviewed to provide extensive disease history in family members. Because of the retrospective nature of obtaining disease phenotypes in family members, the exact time of disease onset may not be available such that current status data or interval-censored data are observed. All existing methods for analyzing these family study data assume single event subject to right-censoring so are not applicable. In this article, we propose a semiparametric regression model for the family history data that assumes a family-specific random effect and individual random effects to account for the dependence due to shared environmental exposures and unobserved genetic relatedness, respectively. To incorporate multiple events, we jointly model the onset of the primary disease of interest and a secondary disease outcome that is subject to interval-censoring. We propose nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and develop a stable Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for computation. We establish the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators and examine the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies. Our application to a real world study reveals that the main contribution of comorbidity between AD and CVD is due to genetic factors instead of environmental factors.

Statistical methods for Mendelian randomization in genome-wide association studies: A review

Genome-wide association studies have yielded thousands of associations for many common diseases and disease-related complex traits. The identified associations made it possible to identify the causal risk factors underlying diseases and investigate the causal relationships among complex traits through Mendelian randomization. Mendelian randomization is a form of instrumental variable analysis that uses SNP associations from genome-wide association studies as instruments to study and uncover causal relationships between complex traits. By leveraging SNP genotypes as instrumental variables, or proxies, for the exposure complex trait, investigators can tease out causal effects from observational data, provided that necessary assumptions are satisfied. We discuss below the development of Mendelian randomization methods in parallel with the growth of genome-wide association studies. We argue that the recent availability of GWAS summary statistics for diverse complex traits has motivated new Mendelian randomization methods with relaxed causality assumptions and that this area continues to offer opportunities for robust biological discoveries.

Systematic review of Mendelian randomization studies on risk of cancer

BACKGROUND

We aimed to map and describe the current state of Mendelian randomization (MR) literature on cancer risk and to identify associations supported by robust evidence.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus up to 06/10/2020 for MR studies investigating the association of any genetically predicted risk factor with cancer risk. We categorized the reported associations based on a priori designed levels of evidence supporting a causal association into four categories, namely robust, probable, suggestive, and insufficient, based on the significance and concordance of the main MR analysis results and at least one of the MR-Egger, weighed median, MRPRESSO, and multivariable MR analyses. Associations not presenting any of the aforementioned sensitivity analyses were not graded.

RESULTS

We included 190 publications reporting on 4667 MR analyses. Most analyses (3200; 68.6%) were not accompanied by any of the assessed sensitivity analyses. Of the 1467 evaluable analyses, 87 (5.9%) were supported by robust, 275 (18.7%) by probable, and 89 (6.1%) by suggestive evidence. The most prominent robust associations were observed for anthropometric indices with risk of breast, kidney, and endometrial cancers; circulating telomere length with risk of kidney, lung, osteosarcoma, skin, thyroid, and hematological cancers; sex steroid hormones and risk of breast and endometrial cancer; and lipids with risk of breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large amount of research on genetically predicted risk factors for cancer risk, limited associations are supported by robust evidence for causality. Most associations did not present a MR sensitivity analysis and were thus non-evaluable. Future research should focus on more thorough assessment of sensitivity MR analyses and on more transparent reporting.

Data-driven identification of ageing-related diseases from electronic health records

Reducing the burden of late-life morbidity requires an understanding of the mechanisms of ageing-related diseases (ARDs), defined as diseases that accumulate with increasing age. This has been hampered by the lack of formal criteria to identify ARDs. Here, we present a framework to identify ARDs using two complementary methods consisting of unsupervised machine learning and actuarial techniques, which we applied to electronic health records (EHRs) from 3,009,048 individuals in England using primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care dataset between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2015 (mean age 49.7 years (s.d. 18.6), 51% female, 70% white ethnicity). We grouped 278 high-burden diseases into nine main clusters according to their patterns of disease onset, using a hierarchical agglomerative clustering algorithm. Four of these clusters, encompassing 207 diseases spanning diverse organ systems and clinical specialties, had rates of disease onset that clearly increased with chronological age. However, the ages of onset for these four clusters were strikingly different, with median age of onset 82 years (IQR 82–83) for Cluster 1, 77 years (IQR 75–77) for Cluster 2, 69 years (IQR 66–71) for Cluster 3 and 57 years (IQR 54–59) for Cluster 4. Fitting to ageing-related actuarial models confirmed that the vast majority of these 207 diseases had a high probability of being ageing-related. Cardiovascular diseases and cancers were highly represented, while benign neoplastic, skin and psychiatric conditions were largely absent from the four ageing-related clusters. Our framework identifies and clusters ARDs and can form the basis for fundamental and translational research into ageing pathways.

Mendelian randomization analyses suggest a role for cholesterol in the development of endometrial cancer

Blood lipids have been associated with the development of a range of cancers, including breast, lung and colorectal cancer. For endometrial cancer, observational studies have reported inconsistent associations between blood lipids and cancer risk. To reduce biases from unmeasured confounding, we performed a bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate the relationship between levels of three blood lipids (low-density lipoprotein [LDL] and high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and triglycerides) and endometrial cancer risk. Genetic variants associated with each of these blood lipid levels (P < 5 × 10-8 ) were identified as instrumental variables, and assessed using genome-wide association study data from the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (12 906 cases and 108 979 controls) and the Global Lipids Genetic Consortium (n = 188 578). Mendelian randomization analyses found genetically raised LDL cholesterol levels to be associated with lower risks of endometrial cancer of all histologies combined, and of endometrioid and non-endometrioid subtypes. Conversely, higher genetically predicted HDL cholesterol levels were associated with increased risk of non-endometrioid endometrial cancer. After accounting for the potential confounding role of obesity (as measured by genetic variants associated with body mass index), the association between genetically predicted increased LDL cholesterol levels and lower endometrial cancer risk remained significant, especially for non-endometrioid endometrial cancer. There was no evidence to support a role for triglycerides in endometrial cancer development. Our study supports a role for LDL and HDL cholesterol in the development of non-endometrioid endometrial cancer. Further studies are required to understand the mechanisms underlying these findings.

Higher BMI is linked to an increased risk of heart attacks in European adults: a Mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND

BMI has been implicated as a risk factor for heart disease as a whole in multiple studies. Heart attack is one of the common complications of this disease. The aim of this study is to explore if elevated level of BMI causes an increase in the risk of heart attacks.

METHODS

We used two Mendelian randomisation (MR) methods: inverse variance weighted estimation and robust adjusted profile score (RAPS) on the basis of summary data of adulthood BMI from Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits consortium and heart attack data from the UK Biobank. BMI associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used as instrumental variables.

RESULTS

Seventy-two independent SNPs were associated with BMI (P < 5 × 10^- 8). Using these SNPs as instruments, BMI was found to be causally associated with heart attacks in inverse variance weighted MR analysis. The risk of heart attacks increased by 0.8% per 1-SD (or 4.5 kg/m²) increase in BMI (OR = 1.008 with 95% CI (1.003, 1.012), P = 0.001). RAPS provided concordant results (OR = 1.007 with 95% CI (1.002, 1.012), P = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

This current study is the first to use MR to investigate causal relationship between BMI and heart attacks. Our findings suggest that high level of BMI may cause increased risk of heart attacks.

Genetics Insights in the Relationship Between Type 2 Diabetes and Coronary Heart Disease

Diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). The major form of diabetes mellitus is type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), which is thus largely responsible for the CHD association in the general population. Recent years have seen major advances in the genetics of T2D, principally through ever-increasing large-scale genome-wide association studies. This article addresses the question of whether this expanding knowledge of the genomics of T2D provides insight into the etiologic relationship between T2D and CHD. We will investigate this relationship by reviewing the evidence for shared genetic loci between T2D and CHD; by examining the formal testing of this interaction (Mendelian randomization studies assessing whether T2D is causal for CHD); and then turn to the implications of this genetic relationship for therapies for CHD, for therapies for T2D, and for therapies that affect both. In conclusion, the growing knowledge of the genetic relationship between T2D and CHD is beginning to provide the promise for improved prevention and treatment of both disorders.

Genome-wide association and Mendelian randomisation analysis provide insights into the pathogenesis of heart failure

Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies.

Effect of Systolic Blood Pressure on Left Ventricular Structure and Function: A Mendelian Randomization Study

We aimed to estimate the effects of a lifelong exposure to high systolic blood pressure (SBP) on left ventricular (LV) structure and function using Mendelian randomization. A total of 5596 participants of the UK Biobank were included for whom cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging and genetic data were available. Major exclusion criteria included nonwhite ethnicity, major cardiovascular disease, and body mass index >30 or <18.5 kg/m². A genetic risk score to estimate genetically predicted SBP (gSBP) was constructed based on 107 previously established genetic variants. Manual cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging postprocessing analyses were performed in 300 individuals at the extremes of gSBP (150 highest and lowest). Multivariable linear regression analyses of imaging biomarkers were performed using gSBP as continuous independent variable. All analyses except myocardial strain were validated using previously derived imaging parameters in 2530 subjects. The mean (SD) age of the study population was 62 (7) years, and 52% of subjects were female. Corrected for age, sex, and body surface area, each 10 mm Hg increase in gSBP was significantly (P<0.0056) associated with 4.01 g (SE, 1.28; P=0.002) increase in LV mass and with 2.80% (SE, 0.97; P=0.004) increase in LV global radial strain. In the validation cohort, after correction for age, sex, and body surface area, each 10 mm Hg increase in gSBP was associated with 5.27 g (SE, 1.50; P<0.001) increase in LV mass. Our study provides a novel line of evidence for a causal relationship between SBP and increased LV mass and with increased LV global radial strain.

Mendelian randomization studies of cancer risk: a literature review

Purpose of review

In this paper, we summarize prior studies that have used Mendelian Randomization (MR) methods to study the effects of exposures, lifestyle factors, physical traits, and/or biomarkers on cancer risk in humans. Many such risk factors have been associated with cancer risk in observational studies, and the MR approach can be used to provide evidence as to whether these associations represent causal relationships. MR methods require a risk factor of interest to have known genetic determinants that can be used as proxies for the risk factor (i.e., "instrumental variables" or IVs), and these can be used to obtain an effect estimate that, under certain assumptions, is not prone to bias caused by unobserved confounding or reverse causality. This review seeks to describe how MR studies have contributed to our understanding of cancer causation.

Recent findings

We searched the published literature and identified 76 MR studies of cancer risk published prior to October 31, 2017. Risk factors commonly studied included alcohol consumption, Vitamin D, anthropometric traits, telomere length, lipid traits, glycemic traits, and markers of inflammation. Risk factors showing compelling evidence of a causal association with risk for at least one cancer type include alcohol consumption (for head/neck and colorectal), adult body mass index (increases risk for multiple cancers, but decreases risk for breast), height (increases risk for breast, colorectal, and lung; decreases risk for esophageal), telomere length (increases risk for lung adenocarcinoma, melanoma, renal cell carcinoma, glioma, B-cell lymphoma subtypes, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and neuroblastoma), and hormonal factors (affects risk for sex-steroid sensitive cancers).

Summary

This review highlights alcohol consumption, body mass index, height, telomere length, and the hormonal exposures as factors likely to contribute to cancer causation. This review also highlights the need to study specific cancer types, ideally subtypes, as the effects of risk factors can be heterogeneous across cancer types. As consortia-based genome-wide association studies increase in sample size and analytical methods for MR continue to become more sophisticated, MR will become an increasingly powerful tool for understanding cancer causation.