A probabilistic model for simultaneous exposure to multiple compounds from food and its use for risk-benefit assessment

Pesticides residues determination and probabilistic health risk assessment in the soil and cantaloupe by Monte Carlo simulation: A case study in Kashan and Aran-Bidgol, Iran

Cantaloupe is a popular agricultural product in the hot season of Iran. On the other hand, the frequent use of pesticides in cantaloupe fields is the most important threat to the health of farmers and consumers. Therefore, the present study aims to measure the concentration of diazinon (DZN), chlorpyrifos (CPF), and malathion (MLT) in cantaloupe cultivated in Kashan and Aran-Bidgol (Iran) and to estimate the possible oral and dermal risk of these pesticides by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). 36 cantaloupe samples, 18 samples before, and 18 samples after the latent period were collected from different places of cantaloupe cultivation from April to May 2021. After measuring the pesticides using the QuEChERS approach, oral and dermal risk assessments were calculated.The mean and standard deviation of the concentrations of chlorpyrifos, malathion, and diazinon in 18 cantaloupe samples, after the latent period, were (30.39 ± 13.85), (18.361 ± 1.8), and (21.97 ± 0.86) μg kg-1, respectively. Concentration of Malathion, diazinon, and Chlorpyrifos in the soil were 0.22, 0.25, and 0.3 mg kg-1, respectively, and pesticide cumulative risk assessment in soil was obtained 0.011 for Malathion, 0.05 for diazinon and 0.03 for Chlorpyrifos. Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) according to the cantaloupe consumption and dermal exposure in children and adults, was safe range. Although non-cancerous dermal and oral risk of cantaloupe is low, constant exposure can be harmful. Therefore, the findings of this study play an important role in increasing the understanding of the negative health consequences of pesticide contamination in cantaloupe for consumers, especially local residents, and can help by adopting remedial strategies to reduce environmental concerns.

Safety of Dietary Guanidinoacetic Acid: A Villain of a Good Guy?

Guanidinoacetic acid (GAA) is a natural amino acid derivative that is well-recognized for its central role in the biosynthesis of creatine, an essential compound involved in cellular energy metabolism. GAA (also known as glycocyamine or betacyamine) has been investigated as an energy-boosting dietary supplement in humans for more than 70 years. GAA is suggested to effectively increase low levels of tissue creatine and improve clinical features of cardiometabolic and neurological diseases, with GAA often outcompeting traditional bioenergetics agents in maintaining ATP status during stress. This perhaps happens due to a favorable delivery of GAA through specific membrane transporters (such as SLC6A6 and SLC6A13), previously dismissed as un-targetable carriers by other therapeutics, including creatine. The promising effects of dietary GAA might be countered by side-effects and possible toxicity. Animal studies reported neurotoxic and pro-oxidant effects of GAA accumulation, with exogenous GAA also appearing to increase methylation demand and circulating homocysteine, implying a possible metabolic burden of GAA intervention. This mini-review summarizes GAA toxicity evidence in human nutrition and outlines functional GAA safety through benefit-risk assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis.

Approaches for Health Effect Characterization in Risk-Benefit Assessment of Foods: A Comparative Case Study

One of the challenges in quantitative risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods is the choice of approach for health effect characterization to estimate the health impact of dietary changes. The purpose of health effect characterization is to describe an association between intake of a food or food component and a health effect in terms of a dose-response relationship. We assessed the impact of the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA in two case studies based on substitution of (i) white rice by brown rice and (ii) unprocessed red meat by vegetables. We explored this by comparing the dose-response relations linking a health effect with (i) a food component present in the food, (ii) a food based on non-specified substitution analyses, and (iii) a food based on specified substitution analyses. We found that the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA may largely impact the results of the health impact estimates. Conducting the calculations only for a food component may neglect potential effects of the food matrix and of the whole food on the diet-disease association. Furthermore, calculations based on associations for non-specified substitutions include underlying food substitutions without specifying these. Data on relevant specified substitutions, which could reduce this type of bias, are unfortunately rarely available. Assumptions and limitations of the health effect characterization approaches taken in RBA should be documented and discussed, and scenario analysis is encouraged when multiple options are available.

Human health risk-benefit assessment of fish and other seafood: a scoping review

Fish and other seafood are important sources of nutrients, but they are also sources of chemical contaminants that may cause adverse health effects. This article aimed to identify existing risk-benefit assessments (RBA) of fish, shellfish, and other seafood, compare methodologies, discuss differences and commonalities in findings, and identify limitations and ways forward for future studies. We conducted a scoping review of the scientific literature of studies in all languages published from 2000 through April 2019. We identified 106 RBA of fish and other seafood across Europe, Asia, North America, Africa, and at the global level. Studies were heterogeneous in terms of types of fish and other seafood considered, beneficial and adverse compounds assessed, and overall methodology. Collected data showed that a diet consisting of a variety of lean and fatty fish and other seafood is recommended for the overall population and that women of childbearing age and children should limit the consumption of fish and other seafood types that have a high likelihood of contamination. Our review emphasizes the need for evidence-based, up-to-date, and harmonized approaches in RBA in general.

Health effects of nutrients and environmental pollutants in Baltic herring and salmon: a quantitative benefit-risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Health risks linked with dioxin in fish remain a complex policy issue. Fatty Baltic fish contain persistent pollutants, but they are otherwise healthy food. We studied the health benefits and risks associated with Baltic herring and salmon in four countries to identify critical uncertainties and to facilitate an evidence-based discussion.

METHODS

We performed an online survey investigating consumers' fish consumption and its motivation in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Sweden. Dioxin and methylmercury concentrations were estimated based on Finnish studies. Exposure-response functions for several health endpoints were evaluated and quantified based on the scientific literature. We also quantified the infertility risk of men based on a recent European risk assessment estimating childhood dioxin exposure and its effect on sperm concentration later in life.

RESULTS

Baltic herring and salmon contain omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin D, and the beneficial impact of these fishes on cardiovascular diseases, mortality, and the risk of depression and cancer clearly outweighs risks of dioxins and methylmercury in people older than 45 years of age and in young men. Young women may expose their children to pollutants during pregnancy and breast feeding. This study suggests that even in this critical subgroup, the risks are small and the health benefits are greater than or at least similar to the health risks. Value of information analysis demonstrated that the remaining scientific uncertainties are not large. In contrast, there are several critical uncertainties that are inherently value judgements, such as whether exceeding the tolerable weekly intake is an adverse outcome as such; and whether or not subgroup-specific restrictions are problematic.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential health risks attributable to dioxins in Baltic fish have more than halved in the past 10 years. The new risk assessment issued by the European Food Safety Authority clearly increases the fraction of the population exceeding the tolerable dioxin intake, but nonetheless, quantitative estimates of net health impacts change only marginally. Increased use of small herring (which have less pollutants) is a no-regret option. A more relevant value-based policy discussion rather than research is needed to clarify official recommendations related to dioxins in fish.

A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions: A case study on substituting meat by fish

Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.

Probabilistic risk assessment (Monte Carlo simulation method) of Pb and Cd in the onion bulb (Allium cepa) and soil of Iran

Recently, the exposure to heavy metals through the consumption of vegetables has become a global concern. In this regard, the current study was aimed to measure the concentrations of lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) in the collected onion bulb samples as well as the surrounded soil using a flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS). Additionally, the target hazard quotient (THQ) for males and females in all age groups of consumers were estimated by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method. Furthermore, the soil threshold values (STVs) were evaluated to investigate the heavy metal contents in the soil based on the established standard limits. In this context, 45 onion bulbs (HashtBandi region, 25 and Ravang region, 20) and 41 soil (HashtBandi region, 21 and Ravang region, 20) samples were collected (March-May of 2016). The average concentrations of Pb in the onions from HashtBandi and Ravang regions were determined as 0.0052 ± 0.0011 and 0.0061 ± 0.0022 mg/kg, and for Cd were 0.0095 ± 0.0024 and 0.0011 ± 0.0035 mg/kg, respectively. The average concentration of Pb in the soil from HashtBandi and Ravang regions were measured as 3.99 ± 3.77 and 2.03 ± 0.69 mg/kg, and for Cd, the corresponding values were determined as 2.21 ± 3.17 and 2.22 ± 0.92 mg/kg, respectively. The average concentration of Pb and Cd in both investigated onion bulb and soil were lower than Iranian national (onion bulb: Pb = 0.1 mg/kg, Cd = 0.05 mg/kg) and FAO/WHO (onion bulb: Pb = 0.3 mg/kg, Cd = 0.1 mg/kg; soil: Pb = 50 mg/kg, Cd = 0.3 mg/kg) standard limits. Moreover, the THQ and total target hazard quotient (TTHQ) for males and females in all age groups were less than 1 value. Therefore, no risk of the exposure to Pb and Cd as result of onion bulb consumption was reported. STVs for Pb and Cd in the HashtBandi region were calculated as 3.99 and 2.21 mg/kg, and Ravang as 2.03 and 2.22 mg/kg, respectively. Due to the higher calculated STVs for Cd while compared with the established standard limit for the soil, the further revisions regarding the heavy metal standard limits in the soil were recommended.

Mercury and omega-3 fatty acid profiles in freshwater fish of the Dehcho Region, Northwest Territories: Informing risk benefit assessments

Traditional foods have significant nutritional, sociocultural and economic value in subarctic First Nations communities of the Northwest Territories, and play a crucial role in promoting cultural continuity and sovereignty. Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (N-3 PUFAs), including eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), carry significant benefits for neurocognitive development and cardiovascular health. However, the health risks posed by methylmercury may serve to undermine the benefits of fish consumption in Northern Indigenous communities. The objective of this study was to characterize profiles for mercury (Hg) and fatty acids in fish species harvested across lakes of the Dehcho Region, in the Mackenzie Valley of the Northwest Territories, to better understand the risks and benefits associated with traditional foods. Hg levels increased with trophic position, with the highest levels found in Burbot, Lake Trout, Walleye, and Northern Pike. Lake Trout, along with planktivorous species including Lake Whitefish, Cisco, and Sucker, demonstrated higher N-3 PUFAs than other species. Negative associations were observed between Hg and N-3 PUFAs in Lake Trout, Northern Pike, Walleye and Burbot. Further stratifying these relationships revealed significant interactions by lake. Significant differences observed in fatty acid and Hg profiles across lakes underscore the importance of considering both species- and lake-specific findings. This growing dataset of freshwater fish of the Dehcho will inform future efforts to characterize human Hg exposure profiles using probabilistic dose reconstruction models.

Risk Benefit Assessment of foods: Key findings from an international workshop

Whilst risk management measures, including food policy, are developed for the protection of public health and the environment, they may also lead to a reduction in health benefits. Policy decisions require then consideration of these necessary trade-offs, which leads to an increasing need to apply formal risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. In this context, the European Food Safety Authority sponsored a Risk-Benefit Assessment Workshop on "past, current and future developments within the risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA)" held in May 2017. The overall aims of the RBA Workshop were to discuss existing methods, challenges and needs within RBA, and to draft a roadmap for future development of RBA. The specific objectives were to i) identify RBA activities in Europe and globally; ii) discuss how to further develop and optimize RBA methodology; iii) identify challenges and opportunities within RBA; and iv) increase collaboration internationally. The two-day workshop gathered 28 participants from 16 institutions in 11 countries. It included technical presentations of RBA methods and case studies, and two break-out sessions for group discussions. All participants agreed that RBA has substantial potential to inform risk-management decisions in the areas of food safety, nutrition and public health. Several activities to optimize further developments within RBA were suggested. This paper provides a summary of workshop presentations, a discussion of challenges that limit progress in this area, and suggestions of next steps for this promising approach supporting a science-based decision process in the area of risk-benefit management of foods.

Investigating the risk-benefit balance of substituting red and processed meat with fish in a Danish diet

Danish dietary guidelines recommend the Danish population to increase the consumption of fish while decreasing the consumption of red and processed meat to prevent nutrition-related diseases. However, the presence of contaminants in these foods may affect the overall risk-benefit balance of such substitution. We performed a quantitative risk-benefit assessment on substituting red and processed meat with fish in a Danish diet. We modeled the substitution among Danish adults based on data from a Danish dietary survey and compared four alternative scenarios based on varying chemical and nutrient exposures to the current consumption. We quantified the overall health impact of the substitutions in terms of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Approximately 150 DALYs/100,000 individuals could be averted each year if Danish adults consumed 350 g of fish/week (fatty or mix of fatty and lean) while decreasing the consumption of red and processed meat. A lower beneficial impact was observed when consumption of fish was restricted to lean fish (80 DALYs/100,000 averted), and a marked health loss (180 DALYs/100,000) was estimated when consumption was restricted to tuna. Our results show an overall beneficial effect of the substitution if the consumption of large predatory fish is low and at least half is fatty fish.

Perspective: An Extension of the STROBE Statement for Observational Studies in Nutritional Epidemiology (STROBE-nut): Explanation and Elaboration

Nutritional epidemiology is an inherently complex and multifaceted research area. Dietary intake is a complex exposure and is challenging to describe and assess, and links between diet, health, and disease are difficult to ascertain. Consequently, adequate reporting is necessary to facilitate comprehension, interpretation, and generalizability of results and conclusions. The STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement is an international and collaborative initiative aiming to enhance the quality of reporting of observational studies. We previously presented a checklist of 24 reporting recommendations for the field of nutritional epidemiology, called "the STROBE-nut." The STROBE-nut is an extension of the general STROBE statement, intended to complement the STROBE recommendations to improve and standardize the reporting in nutritional epidemiology. The aim of the present article is to explain the rationale for, and elaborate on, the STROBE-nut recommendations to enhance the clarity and to facilitate the understanding of the guidelines. Examples from the published literature are used as illustrations, and references are provided for further reading.

Decreased, but still sufficient, iodine intake of children and adults in the Netherlands

Sufficient I intake is important for the synthesis of thyroid hormones, which play an important role in normal growth and development. Our aim was to estimate habitual I intake for the Dutch population and the risk of inadequate or excessive intakes. Further, we aimed to provide an insight into the dietary sources of I and the association with socio-demographic factors. Data from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 2007-2010 (n 3819; 7-69 years), and from the Dutch food and supplement composition tables were used to estimate habitual I intake with a calculation model. Contribution of food groups to I intake were computed and multiple linear regression was used to examine associations of intakes with socio-demographic factors. A total of ≤2 % of the population had an intake below the estimated average requirement or above the upper level. The main sources of I were bread containing iodised salt (39 %), dairy products (14 %) and non-alcoholic drinks (6 %). I intake (natural sources only, excluding iodised salt and supplements) was positively associated with (parental) education, which could at least partly be attributed to a higher consumption of dairy products. Among children, the consumption of bread, often containing iodised bakery salt, was positively associated with parental education. The I intake of the Dutch population (7-69 years) seems adequate, although it has decreased since the period before 2008. With the current effort to reduce salt intake and changing dietary patterns (i.e. less bread, more organic foods) it is important to keep a close track on the I status, important sources and potential risk groups.

PCDD/F contamination on surface soil in the vicinity of a hazardous waste incinerator: is it possible a different trend?

This study is the first to investigate the contamination of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) on surface soils in the vicinity of the first hazardous waste incinerator of Turkey. In the study, 24 soil samples were taken from a 1625-m-radius circle whose center is the stack of the incinerator. This process was repeated 1 year later. Since the acquired average PCDD/F concentrations of the two sampling campaigns (0.05 and 0.02 ng WHO-toxic equivalent (TEQ)/kg) were meaningfully low compared to the related literatures, a new sampling campaign was carried out to control this inconsistency, but this time in a foreign laboratory (0.56 ng WHO-TEQ/kg). In the same period, eight gas samples were taken from the stack under different operational conditions of the facility. According to the evaluations of the findings, the geographical-meteorological data of the study area and the specific operational conditions of the facility corroborate the concentrations of the first and the second soil samplings rather than the third one. The major underlying reason for the inconsistency of the soil concentrations may be the fact that the data analysis procedures used by the laboratories are different. The author suggests a hypothesis which argues that the soils in the vicinity of a hazardous waste incinerator may have significantly lower concentration levels than in related literatures.

Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in, for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by European Union consumers using the European Union consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of the approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development.

Modelling of usual nutrient intakes: potential impact of the choices programme on nutrient intakes in young dutch adults

Introduction

The Choices Programme is an internationally applicable nutrient profiling system with nutrition criteria for trans fatty acids (TFA), saturated fatty acids, sodium, added sugar and for some product groups energy and fibre. These criteria determine whether foods are eligible to carry a “healthier option” stamp. In this paper a nutrient intake modelling method is described to evaluate these nutritional criteria by investigating the potential effect on nutrient intakes.

Methods

Data were combined from the 2003 Dutch food consumption survey in young adults (aged 19–30) and the Dutch food composition table into the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment model. Three scenarios were calculated: the “actual intakes” (scenario 1) were compared to scenario 2, where all foods that did not comply were replaced by similar foods that did comply with the Choices criteria. Scenario 3 was the same as scenario 2 adjusted for the difference in energy density between the original and replacement food. Additional scenarios were calculated where snacks were not or partially replaced and stratified analyses for gender, age, Body Mass Index (BMI) and education.

Results

Calculated intake distributions showed that median energy intake was reduced by 16% by replacing normally consumed foods with Choices compliant foods. Intakes of nutrients with a maximal intake limit were also reduced (ranging from −23% for sodium and −62% for TFA). Effects on intakes of beneficial nutrients varied from an unintentional reduction in fat soluble vitamin intakes (−15 to −28%) to an increase of 28% for fibre and 17% calcium. Stratified analyses in this homogeneous study population showed only small differences across gender, age, BMI and education.

Conclusions

This intake modelling method showed that with consumption of Choices compliant foods, nutrient intakes shift towards population intake goals for the nutrients for which nutrition criteria were defined, while effects on beneficial nutrients were diverse.

Replacement of meat and dairy by plant-derived foods: estimated effects on land use, iron and SFA intakes in young Dutch adult females

Objective

Reduction in the current high levels of meat and dairy consumption may contribute to environmental as well as human health. Since meat is a major source of Fe, effects on Fe intake need to be evaluated, especially in groups vulnerable to negative Fe status. In the present study we evaluated the effects of replacing meat and dairy foods with plant-based products on environmental sustainability (land requirement) and health (SFA and Fe intakes) in women.

Design

Data on land requirements were derived from existing calculation methods. Food composition data were derived from the Dutch Food Composition Table 2006. Data were linked to the food consumption of young Dutch women. Land requirements and nutrient intakes were evaluated at baseline and in two scenarios in which 30 % (Scenario_30 %) or 100 % (Scenario_100 %) of the dairy and meat consumption was randomly replaced by the same amount of plant-based dairy- and meat-replacing foods.

Setting

The Netherlands.

Subjects

Three hundred and ninety-eight young Dutch females.

Results

Replacement of meat and dairy by plant-based foods benefited the environment by decreasing land use. The intake of SFA decreased considerably compared with the baseline situation. On average, total Fe intake increased by 2·5 mg/d, although most of the Fe intake was from a less bioavailable source.

Conclusions

Replacement of meat and dairy foods by plant-based foods reduced land use for consumption and SFA intake of young Dutch females and did not compromise total Fe intake.

Risks and benefits of consumption of Great Lakes fish

BACKGROUND

Beneficial effects of fish consumption on early cognitive development and cardiovascular health have been attributed to the omega-3 fatty acids in fish and fish oils, but toxic chemicals in fish may adversely affect these health outcomes. Risk-benefit assessments of fish consumption have frequently focused on methylmercury and omega-3 fatty acids, not persistent pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls, and none have evaluated Great Lakes fish consumption.

OBJECTIVES

The risks and benefits of fish consumption have been established primarily for marine fish. Here, we examine whether sufficient data are available to evaluate the risks and benefits of eating freshwater fish from the Great Lakes.

METHODS

We used a scoping review to integrate information from multiple state, provincial, and federal agency sources regarding the contaminants and omega-3 fatty acids in Great Lakes fish and fish consumers, consumption rates and fish consumption advisories, and health effects of contaminants and omega-3 fatty acids.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Great Lakes fish contain persistent contaminants--many of which have documented adverse health effects--that accumulate in humans consuming them. In contrast, data are sparse on omega-3 fatty acids in the fish and their consumers. Moreover, few studies have documented the social and cultural benefits of Great Lakes fish consumption, particularly for subsistence fishers and native communities. At this time, federal and state/provincial governments provide fish consumption advisories based solely on risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our knowledge of Great Lakes fish has critical gaps, particularly regarding the benefits of consumption. A risk-benefit analysis requires more information than is currently available on the concentration of omega-3 fatty acids in Great Lakes fish and their absorption by fish eaters in addition to more information on the social, cultural, and health consequences of changes in the amount of fish consumed.

Exposure assessment for methyl and total mercury from seafood consumption in Korea, 2005 to 2008

Reports on the occurrence and intake assessment of mercury for Korean seafood are currently not available. This is the first report to estimate the intake of methyl (Me-Hg) and total mercury (T-Hg) from seafood consumption in Korea. The concentrations of Me-Hg and T-Hg in seafood ranged from 1.02 to 780 (mean: 55.6) ng g(-1) wet weight and 4.89 to 1008 (mean: 100) ng g(-1) wet weight, respectively. The residue levels of Me-Hg and T-Hg in Korean seafood were moderate compared with those found in other countries. The methylation ratios of fish, cephalopods and crustaceans were similar, but shellfish had lower values compared with other species. The intakes of Me-Hg and T-Hg from seafood consumption for the general population were estimated to be 38.8 and 73.8 ng kg(-1) body weight per day, respectively. Mackerel, tuna and squid made the highest contributions to the total intake of these contaminants. Among eight age groups, 30-49 year and 3-6 year age groups had the highest exposure to Me-Hg and T-Hg. The concentrations and intakes of Me-Hg and T-Hg from Korean seafood were less than the allowable residue levels and threshold intake levels suggested by Korean and international authorities. The present study may be useful for risk management of mercury in Korean seafood.

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: food and nutrition

Benefit-risk assessment in food and nutrition is relatively new. It weighs the beneficial and adverse effects that a food (component) may have, in order to facilitate more informed management decisions regarding public health issues. It is rooted in the recognition that good food and nutrition can improve health and that some risk may be acceptable if benefit is expected to outweigh it. This paper presents an overview of current concepts and practices in benefit-risk analysis for food and nutrition. It aims to facilitate scientists and policy makers in performing, interpreting and evaluating benefit-risk assessments. Historically, the assessments of risks and benefits have been separate processes. Risk assessment is mainly addressed by toxicology, as demanded by regulation. It traditionally assumes that a maximum safe dose can be determined from experimental studies (usually in animals) and that applying appropriate uncertainty factors then defines the 'safe' intake for human populations. There is a minor role for other research traditions in risk assessment, such as epidemiology, which quantifies associations between determinants and health effects in humans. These effects can be both adverse and beneficial. Benefit assessment is newly developing in regulatory terms, but has been the subject of research for a long time within nutrition and epidemiology. The exact scope is yet to be defined. Reductions in risk can be termed benefits, but also states rising above 'the average health' are explored as benefits. In nutrition, current interest is in 'optimal' intake; from a population perspective, but also from a more individualised perspective. In current approaches to combine benefit and risk assessment, benefit assessment mirrors the traditional risk assessment paradigm of hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Benefit-risk comparison can be qualitative and quantitative. In a quantitative comparison, benefits and risks are expressed in a common currency, for which the input may be deterministic or (increasingly more) probabilistic. A tiered approach is advocated, as this allows for transparency, an early stop in the analysis and interim interaction with the decision-maker. A general problem in the disciplines underlying benefit-risk assessment is that good dose-response data, i.e. at relevant intake levels and suitable for the target population, are scarce. It is concluded that, provided it is clearly explained, benefit-risk assessment is a valuable approach to systematically show current knowledge and its gaps and to transparently provide the best possible science-based answer to complicated questions with a large potential impact on public health.

Policy and science implications of the framing and qualities of uncertainty in risks: toxic and beneficial fish from the Baltic Sea

Policy and research issues in the framing and qualities of uncertainties in risks are analyzed, based on the assessments of dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) and other ingredients in Baltic Sea fish, a high-profile case of governance. Risks are framed broadly, to then focus on dioxins and beneficial fatty acids, fish consumption, human health, and science-management links. Hierarchies of uncertainty (data, model, decision rule, and epistemic) and ambiguity (of values) are used to identify issues of scientific and policy contestation and opportunities for resolving them. The associated complexity of risks is illustrated by risk-benefit analyses of fish consumption and by evaluations of guideline values, highlighting value contents and policy factors in presumably scientific decision criteria, and arguments used in multi-dimensional risk and benefit comparisons. These comparisons pose challenges to narrow assessments centered, for e.g., on toxicants or on food benefits, and to more many-sided and balanced risk communication and management. It is shown that structured and contextualized treatment of uncertainties and ambiguities in a reflexive approach can inform balances between wide and narrow focus, detail and generality, and evidence and precaution.

A tiered approach for risk-benefit assessment of foods

Risk-benefit analyses are introduced as a new paradigm for old problems. However, in many cases it is not always necessary to perform a full comprehensive and expensive quantitative risk-benefit assessment to solve the problem, nor is it always possible, given the lack of required date. The choice to continue from a more qualitative to a full quantitative risk-benefit assessment can be made using a tiered approach. In this article, this tiered approach for risk-benefit assessment will be addressed using a decision tree. The tiered approach described uses the same four steps as the risk assessment paradigm: hazard and benefit identification, hazard and benefit characterization, exposure assessment, and risk-benefit characterization, albeit in a different order. For the purpose of this approach, the exposure assessment has been moved upward and the dose-response modeling (part of hazard and benefit characterization) is moved to a later stage. The decision tree includes several stop moments, depending on the situation where the gathered information is sufficient to answer the initial risk-benefit question. The approach has been tested for two food ingredients. The decision tree presented in this article is useful to assist on a case-by-case basis a risk-benefit assessor and policymaker in making informed choices when to stop or continue with a risk-benefit assessment.

Methylmercury risks and EPA + DHA benefits associated with seafood consumption in Europe

The intake of methyl-Hg and EPA + DHA through consumption of seafood in Europe as well as the associated probability of exceeding the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) and the recommended daily intake (RDI), respectively, were estimated by combining methyl-Hg and EPA + DHA contents in the five most consumed seafood species with hypothesized consumption distributions for eight European countries, chosen on the basis of size and representative significance. Two estimators were used: plug-in (PI) and tail estimation (TE). The latter was based on the application of the extreme value theory to the intakes distribution curves. Whereas contents data were collected from own database and published scientific papers, consumption data were obtained from statistical sources of the various countries. Seafood consumption levels varied considerably between countries, from 140 in the United Kingdom to 628.5 g/(person.week) in Iceland. The main consumed species were also different between countries. The probability of exceeding the methyl-Hg PTWI ranged from 0.04% in the United Kingdom to 9.61% in Iceland. Concerning the probability of exceeding the RDI of EPA + DHA, Iceland was third, after Portugal (66.05%) and Spain (61.05%) and the United Kingdom was the last (0.32%). While TE was most accurate for small probabilities, PI yielded best estimates for larger probabilities.

Statistical analysis of a dynamic model for dietary contaminant exposure

This paper is devoted to the statistical analysis of a stochastic model introduced in [P. Bertail, S. Clémençon, and J. Tressou, A storage model with random release rate for modelling exposure to food contaminants, Math. Biosci. Eng. 35 (1) (2008), pp. 35-60] for describing the phenomenon of exposure to a certain food contaminant. In this modelling, the temporal evolution of the contamination exposure is entirely determined by the accumulation phenomenon due to successive dietary intakes and the pharmacokinetics governing the elimination process inbetween intakes, in such a way that the exposure dynamic through time is described as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. Paths of the contamination exposure process are scarcely observable in practice, therefore intensive computer simulation methods are crucial for estimating the time-dependent or steady-state features of the process. Here we consider simulation estimators based on consumption and contamination data and investigate how to construct accurate bootstrap confidence intervals (CI) for certain quantities of considerable importance from the epidemiology viewpoint. Special attention is also paid to the problem of computing the probability of certain rare events related to the exposure process path arising in dietary risk analysis using multilevel splitting or importance sampling (IS) techniques. Applications of these statistical methods to a collection of data sets related to dietary methyl mercury contamination are discussed thoroughly.

Intake and potential health risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons associated with seafood consumption in Korea from 2005 to 2007

Concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in 26 types of seafood commonly consumed by the general Korean population. The concentrations of total and carcinogenic PAHs ranged from 12.3 to 243 ng/g dry weight and from 0.21 to 18.4 ng/g dry weight, respectively, similar to those reported in other countries. The lower-molecular-weight aromatics, such as naphthalene, phenanthrene, and fluorine, predominated in the seafood samples. Estimated intakes of PAHs by seafood consumption for the general population, for men, and for women were 15.3, 16.7, and 13.8 ng/kg body weight/d, respectively. Squid, mackerel, and yellow croaker contributed to the highest intakes of PAHs. Among the 8 age groups investigated, children age <2 years and 3 to 6 years had high intakes of PAHs compared with adult groups. Dioxin toxic equivalents (TEQs) of PAHs were calculated using a TEQ proposed in the literature, and the intake was estimated to be 0.91 pg TEQ/kg body weight/d, which indicates that PAHs contributed the most (43%) to total TEQ intake. The estimated excess cancer risk values from seafood consumption for the general population (2.85 x 10(-6)), for men (2.93 x 10(-6)), and for women (2.68 x 10(-6)) slightly exceeded the guideline value (1.0 x 10(-6)) for potential cancer risk.

Comparison of the nutritional-toxicological conflict related to seafood consumption in different regions worldwide

This article discusses the seafood consumption worldwide as well as the related nutritional-toxicological conflict. An exposure assessment was performed using seafood consumption data from the Global Environment Monitoring System and nutrient and contaminant concentration data. The data indicated that the region of Japan, Korea, Madagascar and Philippines have the highest seafood consumption, followed by the Nordic-Baltic countries and South-East Asia. In Japan, Korea, Madagascar, Philippines and the Nordic-Baltic countries, pelagic marine fishes are highly consumed compared to fresh water fishes in South-East Asia. Because pelagic fishes are oily fishes, Japan, Korea, Madagascar, Philippines and the Nordic-Baltic countries have high omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin D intake. Iodine intake is influenced by the demersal fish consumption. The current intake of these nutrients via seafood consumption is still below the recommendations. From the toxicological side, the data indicate that none of the seafood groups had a median contaminant concentration above the EU maximum limits. Though, the results show that in some regions the contaminant intake exceeded the international health-based guidance values, mainly focussing on sensitive subpopulations. In contrast, when using less stringent guidance values relevant for non-sensitive subpopulations, the results show that the benefits of increased seafood consumption outweigh the risks.

Human health risk of polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides resulting from seafood consumption in South Korea, 2005-2007

Organochlorines (OCs) such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), were measured in 26 species of seafood commonly consumed by the Korean population. PCBs and DDTs were the predominant contaminants with concentrations from 0.2 to 41 ng/g wet wt and from<0.04 to 37 ng/g wet wt, while CHLs (<0.01-1.9 ng/g wet wt), HCB (<0.004-1.0 ng/g wet wt), and HCHs (<0.02-0.4 ng/g wet wt) were 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than the concentrations of PCBs and DDTs. The dominant PCBs and OCPs were PCB 153, 187, 138, and 118 and p,p'-DDE, HCB, p,p'-DDT, and p,p'-DDD, respectively. Dietary intakes of OCs for the general population, males, and females were estimated as 69, 78, and 60 ng/kg body weight/week, respectively. Mackerel, tuna, and hairtail were the main contributors to the dietary intakes of OCs. Among the eight age groups investigated, infants <2 years had the highest dietary exposure to OCs. Hazard ratios of non-cancer risk of all of the OCs were less than one, while the lifetime cancer risks of PCBs and DDTs were all greater than unity for Korean populations.

Human exposure to PCDDs, PCDFs and dioxin-like PCBs associated with seafood consumption in Korea from 2005 to 2007

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DLPCBs) were measured in 26 seafoods commonly consumed by the Korean population. The total toxic equivalent (TEQ) concentrations in seafood samples ranged from 0.01 to 6.76 pg TEQ/g wet wt, which were comparable with those found in other countries. The predominant congeners found in seafood samples were 2, 3, 4, 7, 8-PeCDF and 2, 3, 7, 8-TCDF for PCDD/Fs and PCB 118 for DLPCBs. Dietary intakes of PCDD/Fs and DLPCBs from seafood consumption were estimated for various age groups and gender in Korea. The dietary intake of PCDD/Fs and DLPCBs from seafood consumption for the general population was estimated to be 1.23 pg TEQ/kg bw/day, values that are in the range of those reported for other countries. Mackerel, tuna and hairtail contributed to the highest TEQ intakes, which collectively accounted for 66% of the total intake. Among the eight age groups investigated, 3-6 year old children had the highest TEQ exposure, followed by 50-64 years, 30-39 years and <2 years. Considering contributions of seafood consumption to the total dietary intake studies, the dietary TEQ intakes to the general population appear to be below the threshold values by international organizations. The present study may be useful for risk management for dioxins and dioxin-like contaminants in Korean seafood.

A model for probabilistic health impact assessment of exposure to food chemicals

A statistical model is presented extending the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model of van der Voet and Slob [van der Voet, H., Slob, W., 2007. Integration of probabilistic exposure assessment and probabilistic hazard characterisation. Risk Analysis, 27, 351-371]. The aim is to characterise the health impact due to one or more chemicals present in food causing one or more health effects. For chemicals with hardly any measurable safety problems we propose health impact characterisation by margins of exposure. In this probabilistic model not one margin of exposure is calculated, but rather a distribution of individual margins of exposure (IMoE) which allows quantifying the health impact for small parts of the population. A simple bar chart is proposed to represent the IMoE distribution and a lower bound (IMoEL) quantifies uncertainties in this distribution. It is described how IMoE distributions can be combined for dose-additive compounds and for different health effects. Health impact assessment critically depends on a subjective valuation of the health impact of a given health effect, and possibilities to implement this health impact valuation step are discussed. Examples show the possibilities of health impact characterisation and of integrating IMoE distributions. The paper also includes new proposals for modelling variable and uncertain factors describing food processing effects and intraspecies variation in sensitivity.

Evaluation of the exposure methodology for risk-benefit assessment of seafood consumption

This study evaluated the methodology of using existing, international data to calculate the intake of nutrients and contaminants via seafood consumption on a national level. This was done by combining French seafood consumption data with two different datasets. The results showed that a significant correlation was found between the results obtained by using different data sets and that a high percentage of the population was classified in the same category (above or below the intake reference values). As such, the general conclusion that can be drawn from the results: 'whether a part of the population does exceed the toxicological reference values for certain contaminants and whether a part of the population does not reach the recommended intake for certain nutrients' remains the same for the two approaches. Therefore, it can be concluded that the existing, international probability distributions are useful when aiming to perform a cost-effective risk benefit evaluation of seafood consumption on national or regional level. When this evaluation does indicate that more detailed results are needed because a certain health risk exists, it can be decided that it is worth to spend more time and money for the analyses of national samples in order to collect more detailed results.