Analysis of domestic refrigerator temperatures and home storage time distributions for shelf-life studies and food safety risk assessment

Tailor-made packaging strategies of fresh pork belly with different fat content: Enhancing shelf life while minimizing environmental impact

Pork belly is a meat cut valued for its rich flavour and texture, attributed to its high fat content, which also makes it susceptible to oxidation. Therefore, meat producers and processors must carefully select packaging options to maximise shelf life while meeting consumer preferences. This study aimed to develop customised packaging strategies for sliced pork belly with varying fat content to extend shelf life while minimizing environmental impact. The research compared three packaging solutions: modified atmosphere packaging (MAP1: 70:30% O2:CO2, MAP2: 30:40:30% O2:CO2:N2) and vacuum skin packaging (VSP) for pork bellies with low (LF: 16.07 ± 1.87%), medium (MF: 37.39 ± 4.41%), and high fat content (HF: 57.57 ± 2.36%). Samples packaged in VSP exhibited the longest shelf life (13-14 days) with lower purge and reduced fat and colour oxidation compared to MAP-packaged samples for all studied belly types. Nonetheless, the impact of MAP on shelf life depended on the belly type. HF bellies, with lower proportions of unsaturated fatty acids, showed less purge, and greater colour and fat stability, resulting in a longer shelf life compared to LF and MF bellies. LF and MF bellies in MAP2 showed the shortest shelf life (around 6 days), followed by LF and MF in MAP1 (around 7-8 days). Life Cycle Assessment indicated VSP generally as the most environmentally favourable option for LF and MF bellies, whereas for HF bellies, the choice among the three packaging solutions depended on the specific impact category under consideration.

Which domestic refrigerator temperatures in Europe? - Focus on shelf-life studies regarding Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) in ready-to-eat (RTE) foods

Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) is a pathogenic bacteria able to grow at refrigerated temperatures, widely distributed in the environment. This bacteria is susceptible to contaminate various food products of which refrigerated ready-to-eat foods (RTEF) may pose a risk for public health. In Europe, food business operators (FBOs) shall ensure that foodstuffs comply with the relevant microbiological criteria set out in the Regulation (EC) N°2073/2005. Food safety criteria for Lm are defined in RTEF throughout their shelf-life. FBOs should implement studies to demonstrate that the concentration of Lm does not exceed 100 CFU/g at the end of the shelf-life, taking into account foreseeable conditions of distributions, storage and use, including the use by consumers. However, this last part of the cold chain for food products is the most difficult to capture and control. For this purpose, the European Union Reference Laboratory for Lm (EURL Lm) launched an inquiry to its National Reference Laboratory network and reviewed the scientific literature from 2002 to 2020. The outcomes were integrated in the technical guidance document of the EURL Lm to assess shelf-life of RTEF which resulted in the recommendation to use 10 °C as the reference temperature to simulate the reasonably foreseen storage conditions in domestic refrigerators.

Assessing Listeria monocytogenes growth kinetics in rice pudding at different storage temperatures

Rice pudding is a popular artisanal dairy dessert highly consumed in the main rice-producing countries, including Egypt. This study aimed to evaluate and model the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in rice pudding dessert stored at different temperatures (4-25 °C) over its shelf-life. Lab-scale rice pudding samples were prepared following a traditional Egyptian recipe and inoculated with a three-strain cocktail of L. monocytogenes (ca. 3 × 102 cfu/g). Inoculated rice pudding samples (pH = 6.67 ± 0.06 and aw = 0.99 ± 0.002) were stored at different isothermal conditions (4, 8, 12, 18, and 25 °C) and microbiologically analysed for up to 30 days for pathogen quantification by plate count methodology. Global regression analysis was used to fit the Baranyi model coupled with the Ratkowsky model to growth data, relating L. monocytogenes concentrations (N, log cfu/g) with storage temperature (°C) and times (d). Model validation was performed using published independent data. L. monocytogenes growth potential increased by increasing storage temperature. The estimated Ratkowsky model parameters were b = 0.0819 ± 0.0017 log cfu/d·°C and Tmin = -3.28 ± 0.20 °C. The indices RMSE = 0.39 and R2adj = 0.97 indicated a good agreement between the experimental data and the model predictions. The estimated maximum growth rate (μmax) values ranged between 0.355 and 5.363 log cfu/d from 4 to 25 °C. The model was successfully validated using published L. monocytogenes Scott A and California strains growth data in rice pudding samples stored at 5, 12 and 22 °C, as evidenced by the assessed statistical indices. The predictive model developed and validated in this study will aid in decision-making regarding the microbiological safety of rice pudding dessert with respect to L. monocytogenes growth, considering a wide range of storage temperatures.

Seafood dose parameters: Updating 210Po retention factors for cooking, decay loss and mariculture

210Po has been identified as one of the main contributors to ingestion doses to humans, particularly from the consumption of seafood. The amount of 210Po activity concentration data for various types of seafood has increased greatly in recent times. However, to provide realistic seafood dose assessments, most 210Po data requires correction to account for losses that can occur before the seafood is actually consumed. Here we develop generic correction factors for the main processes associated with reduction of 210Po in seafood - leaching during cooking, radioactive decay between harvest and consumption, and sourcing from mariculture versus wild-caught. When seafood is cooked, the overall mean fraction of 210Po retained is 0.74 for all cooking and seafood types, with the means for various seafood types and cooking categories ranging from 0.56 to 1.03. When considering radioactive decay during the period between harvest and consumption, the overall mean fraction remaining is 0.81 across all seafood preservation/packaging types, with estimates ranging from 0.50 (canned seafood) to 0.98 (fresh seafood). Regarding mariculture influence, the available limited data suggest marine fish and crustaceans raised with processed feed have about one order of magnitude lower (×0.10) 210Po muscle content than wild-caught seafood of the same or similar species, although this ratio varies. Overall, this study concludes that 210Po activity concentrations in seafood at the time of ingestion may be reduced to only about 55% compared to when it was harvested. Therefore, correction factors must be applied to any data derived from environmental monitoring in order to achieve realistic dose estimates. The data also suggest lower 210Po ingestion doses for consumers who routinely favour cooked, long shelf-life and farmed fish/crustaceans. However, more data is needed in some categories, especially for cooking of molluscs and seaweed, and for the 210Po content in all farmed seafood.

Ambient temperature, refrigerator food load, and door openings effect on a preservation performance indicator based on chicken temperature data and predictive microbiology

Home preservation depends on the food matrix, refrigerator design/technology, consumer actions, and ambient temperature. Storing different food matrices in product-relevant refrigerator locations generating different temperature histories can be used to develop an indicator of how refrigerator technology, consumer habits, and environment conditions impact the refrigerator food preservation performance. In this study, poultry, particularly prone to spoilage reflecting its pH, nutrient availability, and high aw, was used to evaluate refrigerator preservation performance as affected by compressor technology (single [SS] and variable speed [VS]), ambient temperature (21.1°C [LT] and 32.2°C [HT]), and refrigerator load (22.5 kg [RL] and 39 kg [HL]). Time-temperature values collected for chicken breast stored in a drawer independently controlled at 0°C in a refrigerator set 5°C, and a Pseudomonas predictive microbiology model, were used to estimate a normalized refrigerator performance indicator (RPI). Values <1, ∼1, and >1 described excellent, good, or poor performance, respectively. A first analysis revealed that up to 54% of chicken breast temperatures were above its recommended refrigerated storage value. When ignoring variability sources, SS technology yielded RPI values ranging 0.61-0.70, whereas the more energy efficient VS compressor yielded values ranging 0.86-1.14. The higher and wider VS RPI range reflects a compressor control logic optimized for energy efficiency compliance while disregarding effects on food preservation. When considering the variability of model parameters and temperature measurements through one-sided 95% confidence intervals yielded RPI reaching 1.16. Although the independently controlled drawer preservation performance was near optimal, it can improve by considering energy use and preservation impact when optimizing the compressor speed control protocol. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Worldwide poultry meat consumption has reached 15 kg per person. Refrigeration is widely used for its safety and quality preservation. Efficiency regulations decreased the energy use of residential refrigerators by nearly tenfold even though their size increased by 50% in the last half century. In this study, we provide quantitative evidence that their preservation performance must be improved. This is particularly true for upper end units typically equipped with quieter and more energy-efficient variable speed compressors. The same methodology can be used to evaluate the preservation performance of the storage units, trucks, and display cases used for refrigerated products.

Ranking food products based on estimating and combining their microbiological, chemical and nutritional risks: Method and application to Ready-To-Eat dishes sold in France

Microbiological (M), chemical (C), and nutritional (N) risks associated with food products are usually assessed and managed independently by experts in public services or food companies. This can render difficult the comparison of food products in term of overall risk for the consumer. The objective of this study was to suggest a relatively simple method to (i) classify food products based on their M, C and N risks, and (ii) aggregate these risks and rank the food products accordingly. The method was developed and applied to 17 ready-to-eat (RTE) dishes available on the French market. With regard to food safety, the individual M and C risks were characterized considering likelihood and severity as recommended by the Codex Alimentarius. With regard to nutrition/health, the N risk was estimated based on the tendency of the dish to contribute to nutrient adequacy and to a healthy eating pattern. Finally, the outranking method PROMETHEE was applied to aggregate the three M, C, N risks and rank the food dishes. Food products were ranked relatively to each other, not in absolute terms. When we attributed the same weight to M, C and N risks, the RTE dish "Duck Parmentier" had the highest risk score while "Papillote of chicken, potatoes and small vegetables" and "Vegetarian plate vegetables and quinoa" had the lowest. However, this overall ranking changed according to the weight assigned to individual M, C and N risks, at least for food products whose scores varied according to risk types, such as"sushi discovery" (high M and C risks, low N risk). Since the risk ranking method developed here was built with assumptions and hypotheses related to the specific case study, more applications are needed to assess whether it can be generic. Nevertheless, this method is well grounded, objective, transparent, relatively fast and easy to set up. It might lead to further development of decision tools, particularly for consumers. This study paves the way towards food product multi-risk ranking.

Microbiological profiling and knowledge of food preservation technology to support guidance on a neutropenic diet for immunocompromised patients

The current society consists of an increasing number of people vulnerable to infections. For certain people with severe immunodeficiency, a neutropenic or low-microbial diet is being prescribed, which substitutes high-risk foods that are more likely to contain human (opportunistic) pathogens with lower-risk alternatives. These neutropenic dietary guidelines are typically set up from a clinical and nutritional perspective, rather than from a food processing and food preservation perspective. In this study, the current guidelines in use by the Ghent University Hospital were evaluated based on the current knowledge of food processing and preservation technologies and the scientific evidence on microbiological quality, safety, and hygiene of processed foods. Three criteria are identified to be important: (1) the microbial contamination level and composition; (2) the potential presence of established foodborne pathogens such as Salmonella spp. (to which a zero-tolerance policy is recommended); and (3) an increased vigilance for L. monocytogenes as an opportunistic foodborne pathogen with a high mortality rate in immunocompromised individuals (to which a zero-tolerance policy should apply). A combination of these three criteria was used as a framework for the evaluation of the suitability of foodstuffs to be included in a low-microbial diet. Differences in processing technologies, initial contamination of products, etc., however, lead to a high degree of variability in microbial contamination and make it difficult to unambiguously accept or reject a certain type of foodstuff without prior knowledge of the ingredients and the processing and preservation technologies applied during manufacturing and subsequent storage conditions. A restricted screening on a selection of (minimally processed) plant-based foodstuffs on the retail market in Flanders, Belgium supported decision-making on the inclusion of these food types in a low-microbial diet. Still, when determining the suitability of a foodstuff to be included in a low-microbial diet, not only the microbiological status but also nutritional and sensorial properties should be assessed, which requires multidisciplinary communication and collaboration.

Consumer attitudes and perceptions towards chilled ready-to-eat foods: a multi-national study

Understanding consumers' behavior and their handling of high-risk foods at home is essential for reducing the number of foodborne illnesses. This study shows the results of a cross-national analysis of consumers' perception from nine countries, and the identification of customers' clusters and its characteristics in order to understand customers' behavior, and to build safe chilled ready-to-eat (RTE) foods prevention strategies. The cluster analysis resulted in two clusters: (1) "Precautious consumers" characterized by the orientation towards pre-packed RTE foods, with consumers mainly coming from Bosnia and Herzegovina, India, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Turkey. Their attitudes and self-reported practices may be categorized as less risky in terms of food-borne illnesses connected with the consumption of RTE foods; (2) "Unconcerned consumers" preferred cutting and slicing RTE foods freshly at the point of purchase, usually sold at the delicatessen department in a supermarket or at open markets. Those consumers mostly came from Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia and their attitudes and self-reported practices were riskier. These results allow a better understating of what characterizes consumers of RTE foods in different countries.

Intra- and inter-batch variability in raw pork challenge test studies and their consequences on model predictions: An intricate interplay between L. monocytogenes, the microbiome, and packaging atmosphere

The purpose of this study was to conduct challenge studies in raw pork by strictly following all aspects of the 2014 EURL technical guidance document for conducting shelf-life studies on Listeria monocytogenes. Growth potential was assessed on three batches of self-cut pork chops and one batch of in-house prepared pure minced pork without any additives in air and MAP (70 % O₂/30% CO₂) packaging. Pork chops did not support the growth of the pathogen throughout the shelf-life, given the specific conditions used in this study, with growth potential values of 0.28 and 0.46 log CFU/g, respectively, for both air and MAP. Substantial growth (>0.5 log CFU/g) was obtained in minced pork after investigating only one batch, with growth potential values of 1.69 and 0.80 log CFU/g, for air and MAP. However, both intra- and inter-batch variability for pork chops and intra-batch variability for minced pork was observed; with elevated growth being evened out by the way growth potential is calculated in the EURL 2014 document, leading to underestimations and posing a potential risk to public health. Maximum growth rate in minced pork at a constant temperature of 7 °C was estimated at μ_max = 0.680 log CFU/day and μ_max = 0.489 log CFU/day in air and MAP, respectively. Model predictions for the growth potential showed acceptable results for air-packed minced pork with better accuracy when the lag phase was implemented as indicated in the renewed protocol (CRL EU, 2021). In MAP, all models used, including the Combase Growth model and to a lesser extent the DMRI dynamic safety model, overestimate the growth potential probably due to a lack of integration of the changing CO₂ levels in the packages. The predictive models used in this study do not adequately account for the dynamics in the raw pig matrix, which may have an inhibitory effect on the growth of L. monocytogenes, including interaction with the microbiome and CO₂, and emphasize the importance of remaining critical of predictive model outcomes. In addition, the experimental intra- and inter-batch variability raise questions about the sense or nonsense of using predictive microbiology in these raw pork products.

Survey of Domestic Refrigerator Storage Temperatures in Poland for Use as a QMRA Tool for Exposure Assessment

In the framework of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment, the estimation of the ingested dose of a hazard by the consumer is of paramount importance. This may be calculated by means of predictive modeling of growth/inactivation of the pathogen studied. For products that spend the majority of their shelf life in the domestic refrigerator, storage temperature will significantly impact the microbial population dynamics. To describe the variability of domestic storage temperatures in Poland, a survey including 77 participants, was carried out in Lodz, Poland. Participants were provided with temperature data loggers, which measured their refrigerator temperature for 24 h in 5-min intervals. The temperature-time profiles were used to calculate the mean working temperature, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values, and the data were statistically analyzed to find the best fitting probability distribution using R programming language. Out of the tested refrigerators, 49.35% had a mean working temperature of over 5 °C and 3.9% exceeded 10 °C. Distribution fitting scenarios were tested for goodness of fit, and the final selected distribution was a truncated normal distribution. This study can prove useful in Monte Carlo simulation analysis for stochastic quantitative food risk assessment in Poland.

Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers' Health

This study assessed the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) ham during storage under conditions simulating domestic practices with the intention to offer support in the elaboration of food safety policies that should better protect consumers against food poisoning at home. RTE ham, artificially contaminated at either medium (10²-10³ CFU/g) or high (10⁴-10⁵ CFU/g) concentration, was stored at both isothermal (4℃ in a refrigerator able to maintain a relatively constant temperature and 5℃ and 7℃ in a refrigerator with fluctuating temperature) and dynamic (5℃ and 7℃ with intermittent exposure to ambient temperature, e.g. 25℃) conditions. Under isothermal conditions, the increasing storage temperature determined a significantly increased (p < 0.05) capacity of L. monocytogenes to grow. The kinetic growth parameters were derived by fitting the Baranyi and Roberts model to the experimental data and, based on the maximum specific growth rates, it was estimated the temperature dependence of L. monocytogenes growth in RTE ham. At medium contamination level, sanitary risk time calculation revealed that, unlike storage at 5℃ and 7℃, storage at 4℃ of the RTE ham extends the time period during which the product is safe for consumption by ∼40 and 52%, respectively. However, the real temperature fluctuations included in the Monte Carlo simulations at low L. monocytogenes counts (1, 5 and 10 CFU/g) have shortened the safety margins. Stochastic models also proved to be useful tools for describing the pathogen's behavior when refrigeration of the RTE ham alternates with periods of ham being kept at room temperature, considered dynamic conditions of growth.

Domestic refrigerators: An overlooked breeding ground of antibiotic resistance genes and pathogens

Domestic refrigerator is a widely used appliance to keep food fresh and retard food spoilage in household. However, our understanding of microbial health risk associated with food under such circumstance still remains very poor. Here, typical types of food (vegetable, fish, and pork) were kept in a domestic refrigerator at 4 °C for 3-30 days. Temporal dynamics of antibiotic resistome, pathogens, bacterial and fungal communities during this period were investigated via high-throughput quantification and Illumina sequencing technologies. Results showed that a large number (21-134) of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and mobile genetic elements (MGEs) were detected across the three food types, including 10.06 % of high-risk ARGs classified by their risk ranks. Moreover, four bacterial pathogens (i.e., Bacillus cereus, Cronobacter spp., Klebsiella pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus) targeted by marker genes including the pathogen-specific genes or virulence factor genes, and some potential fungal pathogens (e.g., Fusarium, Candida, and Aspergillus) were detected, indicating the occurrence of microbial risk even at the normally regarded safe storage temperature. Among all food types, the total bacterial density and ARG abundances in fish rapidly increased after only 3 days, much faster than vegetable and pork after 10 days. In addition, fish samples contained the highest ARG and pathogen abundances, indicating its potentially higher health risk than other food types. Finally, the shifts of ARG pattern were mainly contributed by bacterial communities and MGEs. This study highlights that food preserved in refrigerator at 4 °C could still be an unneglected microbial risk, and raises awareness of improving food safety in domestic environment.

Survival of Naturally Contaminating Listeria monocytogenes in Commercial Mediterranean-Style Dry Fermented Sausages during Storage

ABSTRACT

The aim of the present study was the determination of Listeria monocytogenes, competitive microbiota, microbial hygiene indicators, and physicochemical parameters in the typical Mediterranean-style fermented sausages Salsiccia Sarda. A batch of Salsiccia Sarda (25 samples) naturally contaminated by L. monocytogenes and vacuum packaged after 24 days of ripening was included in the study. Fifteen samples stored at 8°C were analyzed after 13 days, after 90 days, and at the end of shelf life (after 180 days from vacuum packaging). Ten vacuum-packaged samples were stored at 12°C in a domestic fridge simulating temperature abuse and were evaluated at the end of the shelf life. Samples were subjected to physicochemical analysis (pH and water activity) and investigated for the presence and enumeration of L. monocytogenes. Competitive microbiota, lactic acid bacteria, coagulase-negative staphylococci, and microbial hygiene indicators (total mesophilic bacterial counts, Enterobacteriaceae, Enterococcuss spp., and Staphylococcus aureus) were determined in all the samples. Although a decreasing trend in L. monocytogenes prevalence was observed through the shelf life, the detection of this pathogen in fermented sausages confirms its ability to overcome hurdles of the manufacturing process. The results highlight the importance of the careful evaluation of the Salsiccia Sarda production process by food business operators to maintain unfavorable conditions for the growth of L. monocytogenes.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Ability of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli to Grow in Raw Cow's Milk Stored at Low Temperatures

Despite the lack of scientific evidence, some consumers assert that raw milk is a natural food with nutritional and immunological properties superior to pasteurized milk. This has led to the increased popularity of unpasteurized cow milk (UPM) and disregard for the risks of being exposed to zoonotic infections. Dairy cattle are healthy carriers of Shiga toxin (Stx)-producing E. coli (STEC), and contaminated UPM has caused STEC outbreaks worldwide. The association between STEC, carrying the eae (E. coli attachment effacement) gene, and severe diseases is well-established. We have previously isolated four eae positive STEC isolates from two neighboring dairy farms in the Southeast of Norway. A whole genome analysis revealed that isolates from different farms exhibited nearly identical genetic profiles. To explore the risks associated with drinking UPM, we examined the ability of the isolates to produce Stx and their growth in UPM at different temperatures. All the isolates produced Stx and one of the isolates was able to propagate in UPM at 8 °C (p < 0.02). Altogether, these results highlight the risk for STEC infections associated with the consumption of UPM.

The Critical Role of Consumers in the Prevention of Foodborne Diseases: An Ethnographic Study of Italian Families

A high incidence of foodborne diseases occurs in the home setting because consumers adopt inappropriate preparation, consumption, and storage procedures. The present study applies an ethnographic approach to identify inadequate practices that could increase the incidence of foodborne diseases. Techniques related to the ethnographic approach were used: participant observation, kitchens mapping, collection of photographic material, and informal interviews in natural settings. A sample of 14 families was involved through the snowball sampling technique. This study identifies habitual practices and routine behaviour as the main risk factors. The inadequacies most frequently encountered related to the microbiological risks are incorrect handwashing, the presence in the kitchen spaces of objects unrelated to food preparation, the improper use of dishcloths and sponges, the inappropriate washing of utensils and food, the incorrect storage of food in the fridge, and the presence of children and pets without an adequate administration of the spaces. The practices that can expose consumers to chemical risk include food preservation through unsuitable containers/materials, food overcooking, and detergents contamination. The data underline the need to implement communicative and training interventions that give precise and targeted indications about correct safety practices in the home setting.

Predictive modeling and probabilistic risk assessment of Clostridium perfringens in hamburgers and sandwiches

This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for the survival of Clostridium perfringens in hamburgers and sandwiches and to evaluate their microbial risk. The primary model was developed in hamburgers using 4 strains of C. perfringens at 5, 10, 15, 25 and 37 °C, and the kinetic parameters of the primary model were fitted well with the Weibull model (R ² ≥ 0.95). The secondary model was developed and validated in hamburgers and sandwiches using the Davey model, which was evaluated by B _f , A _f , and RMSE values within the acceptable range. A probabilistic risk model was developed and simulated using @Risk program to estimate the probability of infection (P _inf ) of C. perfringens based on the data on prevalence (n = 100), time, temperature, and consumption of hamburgers and sandwiches (150.00 ± 20.96 g). Based on the simulation model, the mean C. perfringens exposure dose was 0.00976 CFU/g, and the estimated mean P _inf was 1.78 × 10^-13, which was very low in comparison with the current available data. The proposed model and the result can thus be useful to establish risk management options and microbial criteria for C. perfringens contamination in hamburgers and sandwiches.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10068-021-01000-z.

Probabilistic modelling of Escherichia coli concentration in raw milk under hot weather conditions

Climate change is one of the threats to the dairy supply chain as it may affect the microbiological quality of raw milk. In this context, a probabilistic model was developed to quantify the concentration of Escherichia coli in raw milk and explore what may happen to France under climate change conditions. It included four modules: initial contamination, packaging, retailing, and consumer refrigeration. The model was built in R using the 2nd order Monte Carlo mc2d package to propagate the uncertainty and analysed its impact independently of the variability. The initial microbial counts were obtained from a dairy farm located in Saudi Arabia to reflect the impact of hot weather conditions. This country was taken as representative of what might happen in Europe and therefore in France in the future due to climate change. A large dataset containing 622 data points was analysed. They were fitted by a Normal probability distribution using the fitdistrplus package. The microbial growth was determined across various scenarios of time and temperature storage reflecting the raw milk supply-chain in France. Existing growth rate data from literature and ComBase were analysed by the Ratkowsky secondary model. Results were interpreted using the nlstools package. The mean E. coli initial concentration in raw milk was estimated to be 1.31 [1.27; 1.35] log CFU/ mL and was found to increase at the end of the supply chain as a function of various time and temperature conditions. The estimations varied from 1.73 [1.42; 2.28] log CFU/mL after 12 h, 2.11 [1.46; 3.22] log CFU/mL after 36 h, and 2.41 [1.69;3.86] log CFU/mL after 60 h of consumer storage. The number of milk packages exceeding the 2-log French hygiene criterion for E. coli increased from 10% [8;12%] to 53% [27;77%] during consumer storage. In addition, the most significant factors contributing to the uncertainty of the model outputs were identified by running a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the uncertainty around the Ratkowsky model parameters contributed the most to the uncertainty of E. coli concentration estimates. Overall, the model and its outputs provide an insight on the possible microbial raw milk quality in the future in France due to higher temperatures conditions driven by climate change.

Growth potential of Listeria monocytogenes in veal tartare

In the present study the growth potential of Listeria monocytogenes in veal tartare was evaluated. A challenge test was performed on three tartare batches at 8°C, aiming to evaluate the growth potential of the pathogen. The data indicated the absence of a significant growth (δ<0.5 log cfu/g) during the entire period. When considering intermediate sampling times, an increase of 0.56 log cfu/g was detected after five days of storage in one of the batches. Microflora of veal tartare was dominated by lactic acid bacteria, that increased gradually during the trial, reaching counts up to 7 Log CFU/g in two of the three batches considered. Spoilage bacteria were present (especially Pseudomonas spp., yeasts and Enterobacteriaceae) but in very low counts and with a limited increase during the period considered. Finally, daily maximum tolerable L. monocytogenes counts were calculated to highlight the maximum acceptable load to avoid the overcoming of the legal limit of 100 CFU/g: a total increase of 0.95 log cfu/g in 12 days of shelf-life was estimated, obtaining a "safety initial concentration" at t0 of 10 CFU/g of the pathogen.

Development of predictive models evaluating the spoilage-delaying effect of a bioprotective culture on different yeast species in yogurt

Yeast spoilage of fermented dairy products causes challenges for the dairy industry, including economic losses due to wasted product. Food cultures with bioprotective effects are becoming more widely used to help ensure product quality throughout product shelf life. To assist the dairy industry when evaluating product quality throughout shelf life and the effect of bioprotective cultures, we aimed to build stochastic models that provide reliable predictions of yeast spoilage in yogurt with and without bioprotective culture. Growth characterizations of Debaryomyces hansenii, Yarrowia lipolytica, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Kluyveromyces marxianus at storage temperatures of 7, 12, and 16°C during a 30-d storage period were conducted in yogurt with and without a bioprotective culture containing Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus strains. The kinetic growth parameters were calculated using the Buchanan growth model, and these parameters were used as baseline values in Monte Carlo models to translate the yeast growth into spoilage levels. The models were developed using 100,000 simulations and they predicted yeast spoilage levels in yogurt by the 4 yeast types. Each modeled yogurt batch was set to be contaminated with yeast at a concentration drawn from a normal distribution with a mean of 1 log₁₀ cfu/mL and standard deviation of 1 log₁₀ cfu/mL and stored for 30 d at a temperature drawn from a normal distribution with a mean of 6.1°C and a standard deviation of 2.8°C. Considering a spoilage level of 5 log₁₀ cfu/mL, the predicted number of spoiled samples was reduced 3-fold during the first 10 d and by 2-fold at the end of shelf life when a bioprotective culture was added to the yogurt. The models were evaluated by sensitivity analyses, where the main effect factors were maximum yeast population, storage temperature, and yeast strain. The models were validated by comparing the model output to actual observed spoilage data from a European dairy using the bioprotective culture. When the model prediction, based on a mixture of the 4 specific yeast strains, was compared with spoilage data from the European dairy, the observed effect of bioprotective cultures was considerably higher than predicted, potentially influenced by the presence of contaminating strains more sensitive to a bioprotective culture than those characterized here. The developed Monte Carlo models can predict yeast spoilage levels in yogurt at specific production settings and how this may be affected by various parameters and addition of bioprotective cultures.

Evaluation of growth potential and growth dynamics of Listeria monocytogenes on ready-to-eat fresh fruit

The consumption of fresh or RTE fruits is increasing every year and Listeria monocytogenes has been identified on raw or minimally processed fruits. A food product can become contaminated with L. monocytogenes anywhere along the pathway of food production during planting, harvesting, packaging, distribution and serving. The aim of this work was to assess the microbiological risks associated with consumption of ready- to- eat fruit such as melon, pineapple, coconut and fruit salad. The presence of Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp. and L. monocytogenes was also evaluated. Microbiological challenge tests were carried out for the evaluation of the L. monocytogenes growth potential in RTE fruit stored at 4 and 8°C. E. coli counts resulted under the detection limit of 10 CFU g^-1, Salmonella and L. monocytogenes were not detected (absence in 25g). The growth potential values in coconut and melon (δ>0.5) showed the growth capacity of Listeria at the temperatures considered. A low initial load, also derived from good hygiene practices, and correct storage temperatures are essential to reduce bacterial growth in RTE fruit. The challenge test showed how each type of RTE fruit has a different commercial life based on its specific growth potential and that food should be stored at temperatures not higher than 4°C for a short period.

Behavior of the Biological Control Agent Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. aizawai ABTS-1857 and Salmonella enterica on Spinach Plants and Cut Leaves

Fresh produce has been identified as an important vehicle for the transmission of foodborne pathogens. This study evaluated the behavior of vegetative cells and spores of Bacillus thuringiensis, one of the main biological control agents (BCAs) used in the world, and Salmonella enterica on spinach plants (pre-harvest) and spinach cut leaves (post-harvest) at 12°C, experimentally inoculated as single or co-cultures. The results evidenced that spray-inoculated commercial BCA containing Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. aizawai ABTS-1857 (BTa ABTS-1857) spores persisted well on spinach leaves in both pre- and post-harvest simulations. However, when BTa ABTS-1857 vegetative cells were spray-inoculated, more than 2 log reductions in the counts of B. thuringiensis were observed during 20 days pre- and 5 days post-harvest simulations, respectively. The counts of S. Montevideo on the spinach cut leaves during post-harvest storage at 12°C for 5 days remained unchanged, whereas 1 log reduction was noted during pre-harvest. Moreover, during pre-harvest simulation, when co-inoculated with BTa ABTS-1857 vegetative cells or spores, additional 0.5 or 1.0 log reductions were detected on the counts of S. Montevideo in the spinach leaves on the 10th day. These results were obtained under laboratory conditions, and further findings in longitudinal studies from farm (in the agricultural field) to retail (end of shelf life) will contribute to understanding of the role of B. thuringiensis as a BCA on growth/survival of Salmonella spp. in fresh produce.

Overview of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Microbial Safety of the Dairy Industry

Climate change is expected to affect many different sectors across the food supply chain. The current review paper presents an overview of the effects of climate change on the microbial safety of the dairy supply chain and suggest potential mitigation strategies to limit the impact. Raw milk, the common raw material of dairy products, is vulnerable to climate change, influenced by changes in average temperature and amount of precipitation. This would induce changes in the microbial profile and heat stress in lactating cows, increasing susceptibility to microbial infection and higher levels of microbial contamination. Moreover, climate change affects the entire dairy supply chain and necessitates adaptation of all the current food safety management programs. In particular, the review of current prerequisite programs might be needed as well as revisiting the current microbial specifications of the receiving dairy products and the introduction of new pretreatments with stringent processing regimes. The effects on microbial changes during distribution and consumer handling also would need to be quantified through the use of predictive models. The development of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) models, considering the whole farm-to-fork chain to evaluate risk mitigation strategies, will be a key step to prioritize actions towards a climate change-resilient dairy industry.

Guidance on date marking and related food information: part 1 (date marking)

A risk-based approach was developed to be followed by food business operators (FBO) when deciding on the type of date marking (i.e. 'best before' date or 'use by' date), setting of shelf-life (i.e. time) and the related information on the label to ensure food safety. The decision on the type of date marking needs to be taken on a product-by-product basis, considering the relevant hazards, product characteristics, processing and storage conditions. The hazard identification is food product-specific and should consider pathogenic microorganisms capable of growing in prepacked temperature-controlled foods under reasonably foreseeable conditions. The intrinsic (e.g. pH and aw), extrinsic (e.g. temperature and gas atmosphere) and implicit (e.g. interactions with competing background microbiota) factors of the food determine which pathogenic and spoilage microorganisms can grow in the food during storage until consumption. A decision tree was developed to assist FBOs in deciding the type of date marking for a certain food product. When setting the shelf-life, the FBO needs to consider reasonably foreseeable conditions of distribution, storage and use of the food. Key steps of a case-by-case procedure to determine and validate the shelf-life period are: (i) identification of the relevant pathogenic/spoilage microorganism and its initial level, (ii) characterisation of the factors of the food affecting the growth behaviour and (iii) assessment of the growth behaviour of the pathogenic/spoilage microorganism in the food product during storage until consumption. Due to the variability between food products and consumer habits, it was not appropriate to present indicative time limits for food donated or marketed past the 'best before' date. Recommendations were provided relating to training activities and support, using 'reasonably foreseeable conditions', collecting time-temperature data during distribution, retail and domestic storage of foods and developing Appropriate Levels of Protection and/or Food Safety Objectives for food-pathogen combinations.

Quantitative approach to assess the compliance to a performance objective (PO) of Campylobacter jejuni in poultry meat in France

Predictive modelling is used in microbiological risk assessment to quantify the growth and inactivation of microorganisms through the use of mathematical models. Campylobacter jejuni is one of the main foodborne pathogens and broiler meat is considered as the most important source of human campylobacteriosis. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of heating and chilling during the poultry slaughter process on inactivation kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni during chilled storage in order to predict its contamination level prior to preparation and consumption in the consumer's home, and then to assess the compliance to a Performance Objective (PO). Three strains of C. jejuni were submitted to consecutive heat (54 °C for 3 min) and cold (3 °C for 2 h) stresses, mimicking the two main slaughtering steps, i.e. scalding and chilling, by inoculating chicken fillets with three different concentrations (4, 6 and 8 log₁₀ CFU/g). Fillets were then stored at 6 °C during 17 days under the modified atmosphere currently used by food processors (70% O₂/30% CO₂). For all strains, bacterial log reduction was the lowest when inoculated at 8 log₁₀ CFU/g. One strain showed an enhanced resistance during cold storage after application of stressing steps, suggesting an impact of the cell history on further bacterial resistance. Taking strain variability into account, after six days of storage, predictions showed compliance of ready-to-be-cooked chicken meat with a hypothetical PO of 2.55 log₁₀ CFU/g, value set before the meat enters the consumer's home by the ICMSF (International Commission on Microbiological Specifications for Foods). This study opens the path to assess the compliance to a PO of Campylobacter jejuni in poultry meat and more generally provides inputs to refine microbiological risk assessment by taking into account the cell history and more particularly the impact of stressful steps on the subsequent inactivation at consumer's home.

Tackling Food Waste: Impact of German Consumer Behaviour on Food in Chilled Storage

Since perishable food in private households is usually stored in refrigerators, both consumer knowledge of correct storage parameters and food handling have a major impact on food quality retention. Today's refrigerators provide features, such as climate-controlled compartments, to improve chilled storage performance, but former studies have shown a lack of usage and interest in such features. This paper is based on the results of an online survey with 2666 respondents from Germany. The questionnaire focused on consumer behaviour regarding the chilled storage of perishable foods, the perception of quality loss in food and consumer requirements concerning refrigerators. The novelty in the study layout was the focus on seven common refrigerator storage features. The results showed that consumers had a high awareness of food safety, resulting in short storage durations. While it was clearly indicated that the storage features were less well-known, their importance correlated with rates of food waste, underlining the potential for improvement. The survey implied that raising the awareness of storage climate parameters is a tool for nudging consumers into lower rates of food waste.

Predicting growth of Listeria monocytogenes at dynamic conditions during manufacturing, ripening and storage of cheeses - Evaluation and application of models

Mathematical models were evaluated to predict growth of L. monocytogenes in mould/smear-ripened cheeses with measured dynamic changes in product characteristics and storage conditions. To generate data for model evaluation three challenge tests were performed with mould-ripened cheeses produced by using milk inoculated with L. monocytogenes. Growth of L. monocytogenes and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in the rind and in the core of cheeses were quantified together with changes in product characteristics over time (temperature, pH, NaCl/a_w, lactic- and acetic acid concentrations). The performance of nine available L. monocytogenes growth models was evaluated using growth responses from the present study and from literature together with the determined or reported dynamic product characteristics and storage conditions (46 kinetics). The acceptable simulation zone (ASZ) method was used to assess model performance. A reduced version of the Martinez-Rios et al. (2019) model (https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2019.01510) and the model of Østergaard et al. (2014) (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2014.07.012) had acceptable performance with a ASZ-score of 71-70% for L. monocytogenes growth in mould/smear-ripened cheeses. Models from Coroller et al. (2012) (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2011.09.023) had close to acceptable performance with ASZ-scores of 67-69%. The validated models (Martinez-Rios et al., 2019; Østergaard et al., 2014) can be used to facilitate the evaluation of time to critical L. monocytogenes growth for mould/smear-ripened cheeses including modification of recipes with for example reduced salt/sodium or to support exposure assessment studies for these cheeses.

Growth of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat "shrimp cocktail": Risk assessment and possible preventive interventions

The present study investigated the presence, growth potential, and public health risk posed by Listeria monocytogenes in a ready-to-eat "shrimp cocktail". The pathogen was detected in 4 out of the 104 samples, and there were no counts above the enumeration limit (1 Log colony-forming unit (CFU)/g); the product was a suitable substrate for pathogen growth owing to its chemical/physical properties. A stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate the expected number of invasive listeriosis cases caused by the consumption of 10,000 servings of the product on the last day of its shelf life, considering a population comprising healthy consumers, those susceptible, and transplant recipients. The model predicted no cases for this scenario. Uncertainties were included by considering alternative scenarios; even when considering an increased mean bacterial concentration (up to 3-4 Log CFU/g), no cases were estimated. Following a producer's demand, the exposure assessment model was also used to estimate the probability of the product exceeding the threshold of 2 log CFU/g during the shelf life. The possibility of Listeria growth in the product could not be avoided. Therefore, a modification of the production process was tested to re-classify the product as unsuitable for Listeria growth (EC Reg. 2073/2005). The shrimps were conditioned in three different organic acid solutions comprising: acetic acid (1500 ppm) (A); benzoic acid (1500 ppm) + acetic acid (500 ppm) + lactic acid (750 ppm) (BLA); and lactic acid (4500 ppm) + sodium acetate (2500 ppm) (LSA). Testing was conducted over various treatment durations (1 day-5 days). Treatment for 2 days in the LSA solution was selected based on efficacy, the absence of consumer-perceptible sensorial modifications, and the producers' production rate requirements. The concentration of L. monocytogenes decreased when the new process was applied, which confirmed the usefulness and effectiveness of the treatment relative to the traditional process. Thus, the product obtained by the modified production process did not support the growth of L. monocytogenes.

Food Safety Risk Assessment of γ-Butyrolactone Transformation into Dangerous γ-Hydroxybutyric Acid in Beverages by Quantitative 13C-NMR Technique

Food safety remains a matter of great concern in most countries and the composition in food is crucial to food safety. It is very important to make sense of the quality and change of food ingredients. In this research, the change of γ-butyrolactone (GBL), one kind of food additive in beverage, had been evaluated by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) technique. The 1H-NMR results of seven beverages covering various kinds with spiked GBL indicated that GBL was transformed into dangerous γ-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) in six popular beverages under certain conditions which could happen during transportation and storage. Further results of quantitative 13C-NMR showed that pH and temperature were two key factors affecting the transforming degree of GBL to GHB. Lower pH and higher temperature will increase the degree of transformation. GHB was a neurotransmitter on the chemical control list, which was absolutely forbidden to be added to food. This nondestructive NMR detecting technology which did not need the complex pretreatment method to directly determine food ingredients can be useful for identifying the risk of food safety from the changes of food composition during transport and storage.

The public health risk posed by Listeria monocytogenes in frozen fruit and vegetables including herbs, blanched during processing

A multi-country outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes ST6 linked to blanched frozen vegetables (bfV) took place in the EU (2015-2018). Evidence of food-borne outbreaks shows that L. monocytogenes is the most relevant pathogen associated with bfV. The probability of illness per serving of uncooked bfV, for the elderly (65-74 years old) population, is up to 3,600 times greater than cooked bfV and very likely lower than any of the evaluated ready-to-eat food categories. The main factors affecting contamination and growth of L. monocytogenes in bfV during processing are the hygiene of the raw materials and process water; the hygienic conditions of the food processing environment (FPE); and the time/Temperature (t/T) combinations used for storage and processing (e.g. blanching, cooling). Relevant factors after processing are the intrinsic characteristics of the bfV, the t/T combinations used for thawing and storage and subsequent cooking conditions, unless eaten uncooked. Analysis of the possible control options suggests that application of a complete HACCP plan is either not possible or would not further enhance food safety. Instead, specific prerequisite programmes (PRP) and operational PRP activities should be applied such as cleaning and disinfection of the FPE, water control, t/T control and product information and consumer awareness. The occurrence of low levels of L. monocytogenes at the end of the production process (e.g. < 10 CFU/g) would be compatible with the limit of 100 CFU/g at the moment of consumption if any labelling recommendations are strictly followed (i.e. 24 h at 5°C). Under reasonably foreseeable conditions of use (i.e. 48 h at 12°C), L. monocytogenes levels need to be considerably lower (not detected in 25 g). Routine monitoring programmes for L. monocytogenes should be designed following a risk-based approach and regularly revised based on trend analysis, being FPE monitoring a key activity in the frozen vegetable industry.

Evaluation of the Fight BAC! The Story of Your Dinner Campaign Video: A Multistate Study

ABSTRACT

This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the holiday food safety campaign, "The Story of Your Dinner," launched in 2016 by the Partnership for Food Safety Education. The campaign was designed to change knowledge, risk perception, and perceived behavioral control ideas among U.S. consumers. Results from the study, conducted from 2016 through 2018, were analyzed overall and among specific demographic groups. For respondents from all 3 years, overall knowledge significantly increased from presurvey to postsurvey. Survey findings indicated that after viewing the educational intervention, adult respondents were significantly more confident in their ability to use a food thermometer while cooking small cuts of meat and poultry and developed a significantly higher perception of the risk of suffering from foodborne illness. The educational intervention was more effective for changing risk perception and perceived behavioral control among some demographic groups. Respondent risk perception and perceived behavioral control significantly increased in more categories for adolescents than for adults. Consumers tended to overestimate their safe food handling practices. Prior to the educational intervention, adult respondents rated themselves highly (5.49 ± 1.64 of 7.00) on their confidence in cooking meat and poultry that is safe to eat. However, these respondents were less comfortable complying with the safe food handling practice of using a thermometer on small (4.47 ± 1.98) and large (4.61 ± 2.02) cuts of meat and poultry. More educational interventions are needed to improve compliance with safe food handling in home kitchens. Future studies will be conducted to identify and address barriers to food safety behavioral change among various population groups.

HIGHLIGHTS

Characterization of the temperature fluctuation effect on shelf life of an octopus semi-preserved product

The aim of this work is to study the effect of temperature fluctuations on spoilage microbial flora behaviour of a semi-preserved seafood product in modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) as well as to find correct interpretation criteria for simulating temperature fluctuations during storage tests. The study concerned 54 packages of "Octopus carpaccio" that were grouped in three batches and stored at 3 different temperature profiles: the first (16 packages - Group 4°C) was stored at 4±0.5°C; the second (16 packages - Group 8°C) was stored at 8±0.5°C; the third (16 packages - Group F) was stored under a fluctuating temperature regime between 2°C and 14°C. Spoilage microflora, pH and AW has been monitored, at regular intervals, along the storage period (44 days). A predictive model was constructed according to the accredited scientific literature and validated against the observed growth curves of the above three groups. Afterwards, the predictive model has been used setting the temperature at the mean value of fluctuations (6.72°C), at the kinetic mean value of fluctuations (7.80°C) and at the 75th percentile value of fluctuations (11.14°C). The best fitting to the observed data was obtained with the kinetic mean temperature value and this result shows that this parameter can be proposed to reproduce the temperature fluctuation along the distribution and the domestic storage when a storage test has to be carried out.

Growth and growth boundary model with terms for melting salts to predict growth responses of Listeria monocytogenes in spreadable processed cheese

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a growth and growth boundary model with terms for melting salts to predict growth of Listeria monocytogenes in spreadable processed cheese. Cardinal parameter terms for phosphate salts and citric acid were developed in broth studies and used to expand an available growth and growth boundary model. The expanded model includes the effect of nine environmental factors (temperature, pH, a_w, lactic acid, acetic acid, citric acid, orthophosphate, di-phosphate and tri-phosphate). To generate growth data for model evaluation challenge tests with inoculated commercial (n = 10) and customized (n = 10) spreadable processed cheeses were performed. Evaluation of the new model by comparison of observed and predicted μ_max-values resulted in a bias factor of 1.12 and an accuracy factor of 1.33 (n = 42). Prediction of growth and no-growth responses in processed cheese (n = 60) were 89% correct with 11% fail-safe and 0% fail-dangerous predictions. The developed model can be used to support product development, reformulation or risk assessment for spreadable processed cheese.

Combining Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Health, Food Waste, and Energy Consumption: The Next Step in the Development of the Food Cold Chain?

The preservation of perishable food via refrigeration in the supply chain is essential to extend shelf life and provide consumers with safe food. However, electricity consumed in refrigeration processes has an economical and an environmental impact. This study focuses on the cold chain of cooked ham, including transport, cold room in supermarket, display cabinet, transport by consumer, and domestic refrigerator, and aims to predict the risk for human health associated with Listeria monocytogenes, the amount of food wasted due to the growth of spoilage bacteria, and the electrical consumption to maintain product temperature through the cold chain. A set of eight intervention actions were tested to evaluate their impact on the three criteria. Results show that the modification of the thermostat of the domestic refrigerator has a high impact on food safety and food waste and a limited impact on the electrical consumption. Inversely, the modification of the airflow rate in the display cabinet has a high impact on electrical consumption and a limited impact on food safety and food waste. A cost-benefit analysis approach and two multicriteria decision analysis methods were used to rank the intervention actions. These three methodologies show that setting the thermostat of the domestic refrigerator to 4 °C presents the best compromise between the three criteria. The impact of decisionmaker preferences (criteria weight) and limitations of these three approaches are discussed. The approaches proposed by this study may be useful in decision making to evaluate global impact of intervention actions in issues involving conflicting outputs.

Listeria monocytogenes contamination of ready-to-eat foods and the risk for human health in the EU

Food safety criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) foods have been applied from 2006 onwards (Commission Regulation (EC) 2073/2005). Still, human invasive listeriosis was reported to increase over the period 2009-2013 in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). Time series analysis for the 2008-2015 period in the EU/EEA indicated an increasing trend of the monthly notified incidence rate of confirmed human invasive listeriosis of the over 75 age groups and female age group between 25 and 44 years old (probably related to pregnancies). A conceptual model was used to identify factors in the food chain as potential drivers for L. monocytogenes contamination of RTE foods and listeriosis. Factors were related to the host (i. population size of the elderly and/or susceptible people; ii. underlying condition rate), the food (iii. L. monocytogenes prevalence in RTE food at retail; iv. L. monocytogenes concentration in RTE food at retail; v. storage conditions after retail; vi. consumption), the national surveillance systems (vii. improved surveillance), and/or the bacterium (viii. virulence). Factors considered likely to be responsible for the increasing trend in cases are the increased population size of the elderly and susceptible population except for the 25-44 female age group. For the increased incidence rates and cases, the likely factor is the increased proportion of susceptible persons in the age groups over 45 years old for both genders. Quantitative modelling suggests that more than 90% of invasive listeriosis is caused by ingestion of RTE food containing > 2,000 colony forming units (CFU)/g, and that one-third of cases are due to growth in the consumer phase. Awareness should be increased among stakeholders, especially in relation to susceptible risk groups. Innovative methodologies including whole genome sequencing (WGS) for strain identification and monitoring of trends are recommended.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application

The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the brioche case-study illustrating here a quality application.