Classification of suicide attempters in schizophrenia using sociocultural and clinical features: A machine learning approach

Predicting inmate suicidal behavior with an interpretable ensemble machine learning approach in smart prisons

The convergence of smart technologies and predictive modelling in prisons presents an exciting opportunity to revolutionize the monitoring of inmate behaviour, allowing for the early detection of signs of distress and the effective mitigation of suicide risks. While machine learning algorithms have been extensively employed in predicting suicidal behaviour, a critical aspect that has often been overlooked is the interoperability of these models. Most of the work done on model interpretations for suicide predictions often limits itself to feature reduction and highlighting important contributing features only. To address this research gap, we used Anchor explanations for creating human-readable statements based on simple rules, which, to our knowledge, have never been used before for suicide prediction models. We also overcome the limitation of anchor explanations, which create weak rules on high-dimensionality datasets, by first reducing data features with the help of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). We further reduce data features through anchor interpretations for the final ensemble model of XGBoost and random forest. Our results indicate significant improvement when compared with state-of-the-art models, having an accuracy and precision of 98.6% and 98.9%, respectively. The F1-score for the best suicide ideation model appeared to be 96.7%.

Explainable artificial intelligence models for predicting risk of suicide using health administrative data in Quebec

Suicide is a complex, multidimensional event, and a significant challenge for prevention globally. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have emerged to harness large-scale datasets to enhance risk detection. In order to trust and act upon the predictions made with ML, more intuitive user interfaces must be validated. Thus, Interpretable AI is one of the crucial directions which could allow policy and decision makers to make reasonable and data-driven decisions that can ultimately lead to better mental health services planning and suicide prevention. This research aimed to develop sex-specific ML models for predicting the population risk of suicide and to interpret the models. Data were from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System (QICDSS), covering up to 98% of the population in the province of Quebec and containing data for over 20,000 suicides between 2002 and 2019. We employed a case-control study design. Individuals were considered cases if they were aged 15+ and had died from suicide between January 1st, 2002, and December 31st, 2019 (n = 18339). Controls were a random sample of 1% of the Quebec population aged 15+ of each year, who were alive on December 31st of each year, from 2002 to 2019 (n = 1,307,370). We included 103 features, including individual, programmatic, systemic, and community factors, measured up to five years prior to the suicide events. We trained and then validated the sex-specific predictive risk model using supervised ML algorithms, including Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Multilayer perceptron (MLP). We computed operating characteristics, including sensitivity, specificity, and Positive Predictive Value (PPV). We then generated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to predict suicides and calibration measures. For interpretability, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) was used with the global explanation to determine how much the input features contribute to the models' output and the largest absolute coefficients. The best sensitivity was 0.38 with logistic regression for males and 0.47 with MLP for females; the XGBoost Classifier with 0.25 for males and 0.19 for females had the best precision (PPV). This study demonstrated the useful potential of explainable AI models as tools for decision-making and population-level suicide prevention actions. The ML models included individual, programmatic, systemic, and community levels variables available routinely to decision makers and planners in a public managed care system. Caution shall be exercised in the interpretation of variables associated in a predictive model since they are not causal, and other designs are required to establish the value of individual treatments. The next steps are to produce an intuitive user interface for decision makers, planners and other stakeholders like clinicians or representatives of families and people with live experience of suicidal behaviors or death by suicide. For example, how variations in the quality of local area primary care programs for depression or substance use disorders or increased in regional mental health and addiction budgets would lower suicide rates.

Machine learning and the prediction of suicide in psychiatric populations: a systematic review

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising tool to enhance suicidal prediction. However, as many large-sample studies mixed psychiatric and non-psychiatric populations, a formal psychiatric diagnosis emerged as a strong predictor of suicidal risk, overshadowing more subtle risk factors specific to distinct populations. To overcome this limitation, we conducted a systematic review of ML studies evaluating suicidal behaviors exclusively in psychiatric clinical populations. A systematic literature search was performed from inception through November 17, 2022 on PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus following the PRISMA guidelines. Original research using ML techniques to assess the risk of suicide or predict suicide attempts in the psychiatric population were included. An assessment for bias risk was performed using the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines. About 1032 studies were retrieved, and 81 satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included for qualitative synthesis. Clinical and demographic features were the most frequently employed and random forest, support vector machine, and convolutional neural network performed better in terms of accuracy than other algorithms when directly compared. Despite heterogeneity in procedures, most studies reported an accuracy of 70% or greater based on features such as previous attempts, severity of the disorder, and pharmacological treatments. Although the evidence reported is promising, ML algorithms for suicidal prediction still present limitations, including the lack of neurobiological and imaging data and the lack of external validation samples. Overcoming these issues may lead to the development of models to adopt in clinical practice. Further research is warranted to boost a field that holds the potential to critically impact suicide mortality.

The use of machine learning on administrative and survey data to predict suicidal thoughts and behaviors: a systematic review

Background

Machine learning is a promising tool in the area of suicide prevention due to its ability to combine the effects of multiple risk factors and complex interactions. The power of machine learning has led to an influx of studies on suicide prediction, as well as a few recent reviews. Our study distinguished between data sources and reported the most important predictors of suicide outcomes identified in the literature.

Objective

Our study aimed to identify studies that applied machine learning techniques to administrative and survey data, summarize performance metrics reported in those studies, and enumerate the important risk factors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors identified.

Methods

A systematic literature search of PubMed, Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED) to identify all studies that have used machine learning to predict suicidal thoughts and behaviors using administrative and survey data was performed. The search was conducted for articles published between January 1, 2019 and May 11, 2022. In addition, all articles identified in three recently published systematic reviews (the last of which included studies up until January 1, 2019) were retained if they met our inclusion criteria. The predictive power of machine learning methods in predicting suicidal thoughts and behaviors was explored using box plots to summarize the distribution of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values by machine learning method and suicide outcome (i.e., suicidal thoughts, suicide attempt, and death by suicide). Mean AUCs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for each suicide outcome by study design, data source, total sample size, sample size of cases, and machine learning methods employed. The most important risk factors were listed.

Results

The search strategy identified 2,200 unique records, of which 104 articles met the inclusion criteria. Machine learning algorithms achieved good prediction of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (i.e., an AUC between 0.80 and 0.89); however, their predictive power appears to differ across suicide outcomes. The boosting algorithms achieved good prediction of suicidal thoughts, death by suicide, and all suicide outcomes combined, while neural network algorithms achieved good prediction of suicide attempts. The risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors differed depending on the data source and the population under study.

Conclusion

The predictive utility of machine learning for suicidal thoughts and behaviors largely depends on the approach used. The findings of the current review should prove helpful in preparing future machine learning models using administrative and survey data.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022333454 identifier CRD42022333454.

Association between adverse childhood experiences and suicidal behavior in schizophrenia spectrum disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Assessing and managing suicide behaviors is highly relevant to individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Our study aims to assess the association between adverse childhood experiences and suicidal behaviors in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. We included observational studies comparing the probability of suicide behaviors in adults with schizophrenia spectrum disorders exposed and unexposed to adverse childhood experiences. Odds ratio estimates were obtained by pooling data using a random-effects pairwise meta-analysis. Standardized criteria were used to assess the strength of the association of the pooled estimate. We found 21 eligible studies reporting outcomes for 6257 individuals from 11 countries. The primary outcome revealed an association between any suicidal behavior and adverse childhood experiences, which resulted "highly suggestive" according to validated Umbrella Criteria. Similarly, a positive association was confirmed for suicidal ideation and suicide attempt and for any subtype of adverse childhood experience. This meta-analysis showed that exposure to adverse childhood experiences strongly increases the probability of suicide behaviors in people with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

Machine learning techniques in diagnostics and prediction of the clinical features of schizophrenia: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

Schizophrenia is a severe psychiatric disorder associated with a significant negative impact. Early diagnosis and treatment of schizophrenia has a favorable effect on the clinical outcome and patients quality of life. In this context, machine learning techniques open up new opportunities for a more accurate diagnosis and prediction of the clinical features of this illness.

AIM

This literature review is aimed to search for information on the use of machine learning techniques in the prediction and diagnosis of schizophrenia and the determination of its clinical features.

METHODS

The Google Scholar, PubMed, and eLIBRARY.ru databases were used to search for relevant data. The review included articles that had been published not earlier than January 1, 2010, and not later than March 31, 2023. Combinations of the following keywords were applied for search queries: machine learning, deep learning, schizophrenia, neural network, predictors, artificial intelligence, diagnostics, suicide, depressive, insomnia, and cognitive. Original articles regardless of their design were included in the review. Descriptive analysis was used to summarize the retrieved data.

RESULTS

Machine learning techniques are widely used in the functional assessment of patients with schizophrenia. They are used for interpretation of MRI, EEG, and actigraphy findings. Also, models created using machine learning algorithms can analyze speech, behavior, and the creativity of people and these data can be used for the diagnosis of psychiatric disorders. It has been found that different machine learning-based models can help specialists predict and diagnose schizophrenia based on medical history and genetic data, as well as epigenetic information. Machine learning techniques can also be used to build effective models that can help specialists diagnose and predict clinical manifestations and complications of schizophrenia, such as insomnia, depressive symptoms, suicide risk, aggressive behavior, and changes in cognitive functions over time.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning techniques play an important role in psychiatry, as they have been used in models that help specialists in the diagnosis of schizophrenia and determination of its clinical features. The use of machine learning algorithms is one of the most promising direction in psychiatry, and it can significantly improve the effectiveness of the diagnosis and treatment of schizophrenia.

Application of machine learning in predicting aggressive behaviors from hospitalized patients with schizophrenia

Objective

To establish a predictive model of aggressive behaviors from hospitalized patients with schizophrenia through applying multiple machine learning algorithms, to provide a reference for accurately predicting and preventing of the occurrence of aggressive behaviors.

Methods

The cluster sampling method was used to select patients with schizophrenia who were hospitalized in our hospital from July 2019 to August 2021 as the survey objects, and they were divided into an aggressive behavior group (611 cases) and a non-aggressive behavior group (1,426 cases) according to whether they experienced obvious aggressive behaviors during hospitalization. Self-administered General Condition Questionnaire, Insight and Treatment Attitude Questionnaire (ITAQ), Family APGAR (Adaptation, Partnership, Growth, Affection, Resolve) Questionnaire (APGAR), Social Support Rating Scale Questionnaire (SSRS) and Family Burden Scale of Disease Questionnaire (FBS) were used for the survey. The Multi-layer Perceptron, Lasso, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest algorithms were used to build a predictive model for the occurrence of aggressive behaviors from hospitalized patients with schizophrenia and to evaluate its predictive effect. Nomogram was used to build a clinical application tool.

Results

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the Multi-Layer Perceptron, Lasso, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest were 0.904 (95% CI: 0.877-0.926), 0.901 (95% CI: 0.874-0.923), 0.902 (95% CI: 0.876-0.924), and 0.955 (95% CI: 0.935-0.970), where the AUCs of the Random Forest and the remaining three models were statistically different (p < 0.0001), and the remaining three models were not statistically different in pair comparisons (p > 0.5).

Conclusion

Machine learning models can fairly predict aggressive behaviors in hospitalized patients with schizophrenia, among which Random Forest has the best predictive effect and has some value in clinical application.

NSSI questionnaires revisited: A data mining approach to shorten the NSSI questionnaires

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is a psychological disorder that the sufferer consciously damages their body tissues, often too severe that requires intensive care medicine. As some individuals hide their NSSI behaviors, other people can only identify them if they catch them while injuring, or via dedicated questionnaires. However, questionnaires are long and tedious to answer, thus the answers might be inconsistent. Hence, in this study for the first time, we abstracted a larger questionnaire (of 662 items in total) to own only 22 items (questions) via data mining techniques. Then, we trained several machine learning algorithms to classify individuals based on their answers into two classes.

METHODS

Data from 277 previously-questioned participants is used in several data mining methods to select features (questions) that highly represent NSSI, then 245 different people were asked to participate in an online test to validate those features via machine learning methods.

RESULTS

The highest accuracy and F1 score of the selected features-via the Genetics algorithm-are 80.0% and 74.8% respectively for a Random Forest algorithm. Cronbach's alpha of the online test (validation on the selected features) is 0.82. Moreover, results suggest that an MLP can classify participants into two classes of NSSI Positive and NSSI Negative with 83.6% accuracy and 83.7% F1-score based on the answers to only 22 questions.

CONCLUSION

While previously psychologists used many combined questionnaires to see whether someone is involved in NSSI, via various data mining methods, the present study showed that only 22 questions are enough to predict if someone is involved or not. Then different machine learning algorithms were utilized to classify participants based on their NSSI behaviors, among which, an MLP with 10 hidden layers had the best performance.

Prediction Models for Suicide Attempts among Adolescents Using Machine Learning Techniques

OBJECTIVE

Suicide attempts (SAs) in adolescents are difficult to predict although it is a leading cause of death among adolescents. This study aimed to develop and evaluate SA prediction models based on six different machine learning (ML) algorithms for Korean adolescents using data from online surveys.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the 2011-2018 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey (KYRBS), an ongoing annual national survey. The participants comprised 468,482 nationally representative adolescents from 400 middle and 400 high schools, aged 12 to 18. The models were trained using several classic ML methods and then tested on internal and external independent datasets; performance metrics were calculated. Data analysis was performed from March 2020 to June 2020.

RESULTS

Among the 468,482 adolescents included in the analysis, 15,012 cases (3.2%) were identified as having made an SA. Three features (suicidal ideation, suicide planning, and grade) were identified as the most important predictors. The performance of the six ML models on the internal testing dataset was good, with both the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) ranging from 0.92 to 0.94. Although the AUROC of all models on the external testing dataset (2018 KYRBS) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, the AUPRC of the models was approximately 0.5.

CONCLUSION

The developed and validated SA prediction models can be applied to detect high risks of SA. This approach could facilitate early intervention in the suicide crisis and may ultimately contribute to suicide prevention for adolescents.

An exploratory application of machine learning methods to optimize prediction of responsiveness to digital interventions for eating disorder symptoms

OBJECTIVE

Digital interventions show promise to address eating disorder (ED) symptoms. However, response rates are variable, and the ability to predict responsiveness to digital interventions has been poor. We tested whether machine learning (ML) techniques can enhance outcome predictions from digital interventions for ED symptoms.

METHOD

Data were aggregated from three RCTs (n = 826) of self-guided digital interventions for EDs. Predictive models were developed for four key outcomes: uptake, adherence, drop-out, and symptom-level change. Seven ML techniques for classification were tested and compared against the generalized linear model (GLM).

RESULTS

The seven ML methods used to predict outcomes from 36 baseline variables were poor for the three engagement outcomes (AUCs = 0.48-0.52), but adequate for symptom-level change (R²  = .15-.40). ML did not offer an added benefit to the GLM. Incorporating intervention usage pattern data improved ML prediction accuracy for drop-out (AUC = 0.75-0.93) and adherence (AUC = 0.92-0.99). Age, motivation, symptom severity, and anxiety emerged as influential outcome predictors.

CONCLUSION

A limited set of routinely measured baseline variables was not sufficient to detect a performance benefit of ML over traditional approaches. The benefits of ML may emerge when numerous usage pattern variables are modeled, although this validation in larger datasets before stronger conclusions can be made.

Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms in the Prediction of Hospitalized Patients with Schizophrenia

New computational methods have emerged through science and technology to support the diagnosis of mental health disorders. Predictive models developed from machine learning algorithms can identify disorders such as schizophrenia and support clinical decision making. This research aims to compare the performance of machine learning algorithms: Decision Tree, AdaBoost, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and k-Nearest Neighbor in the prediction of hospitalized patients with schizophrenia. The data set used in the study contains a total of 11,884 electronic admission records corresponding to 6933 patients with various mental health disorders; these records belong to the acute units of 11 public hospitals in a region of Spain. Of the total, 5968 records correspond to patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (3002 patients) and 5916 records correspond to patients with other mental health disorders (3931 patients). The results recommend Random Forest with the best accuracy of 72.7%. Furthermore, this algorithm presents 79.6%, 72.8%, 72.7%, and 72.7% for AUC, precision, F1-Score, and recall, respectively. The results obtained suggest that the use of machine learning algorithms can classify hospitalized patients with schizophrenia in this population and help in the hospital management of this type of disorder, to reduce the costs associated with hospitalization.

Predictors of suicide attempt in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder: an exploratory study with machine learning analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) are at increased risk for suicide attempt (SA) compared to the general population. However, the significant risk factors for SA in this population remains unclear - whether these factors are associated with the disorder itself or related to extrinsic factors, such as comorbidities and sociodemographic variables. This study aimed to identify predictors of SA in OCD patients using a machine learning algorithm.

METHODS

A total of 959 outpatients with OCD were included. An elastic net model was performed to recognize the predictors of SA among OCD patients, using clinical and sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SA in our sample was 10.8%. Relevant predictors of SA founded by the elastic net algorithm were the following: previous suicide planning, previous suicide thoughts, lifetime depressive episode, and intermittent explosive disorder. Our elastic net model had a good performance and found an area under the curve of 0.95.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to evaluate risk factors for SA among OCD patients using machine learning algorithms. Our results demonstrate an accurate risk algorithm can be created using clinical and sociodemographic variables. All aspects of suicidal phenomena need to be carefully investigated by clinicians in every evaluation of OCD patients. Particular attention should be given to comorbidity with depressive symptoms.

A Novel Bayesian Linear Regression Model for the Analysis of Neuroimaging Data

In this paper, we propose a novel Machine Learning Model based on Bayesian Linear Regression intended to deal with the low sample-to-variable ratio typically found in neuroimaging studies and focusing on mental disorders. The proposed model combines feature selection capabilities with a formulation in the dual space which, in turn, enables efficient work with neuroimaging data. Thus, we have tested the proposed algorithm with real MRI data from an animal model of schizophrenia. The results show that our proposal efficiently predicts the diagnosis and, at the same time, detects regions which clearly match brain areas well-known to be related to schizophrenia.

Leveraging data science to enhance suicide prevention research: a literature review

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this research is to identify how data science is applied in suicide prevention literature, describe the current landscape of this literature and highlight areas where data science may be useful for future injury prevention research.

DESIGN

We conducted a literature review of injury prevention and data science in April 2020 and January 2021 in three databases.

METHODS

For the included 99 articles, we extracted the following: (1) author(s) and year; (2) title; (3) study approach (4) reason for applying data science method; (5) data science method type; (6) study description; (7) data source and (8) focus on a disproportionately affected population.

RESULTS

Results showed the literature on data science and suicide more than doubled from 2019 to 2020, with articles with individual-level approaches more prevalent than population-level approaches. Most population-level articles applied data science methods to describe (n=10) outcomes, while most individual-level articles identified risk factors (n=27). Machine learning was the most common data science method applied in the studies (n=48). A wide array of data sources was used for suicide research, with most articles (n=45) using social media and web-based behaviour data. Eleven studies demonstrated the value of applying data science to suicide prevention literature for disproportionately affected groups.

CONCLUSION

Data science techniques proved to be effective tools in describing suicidal thoughts or behaviour, identifying individual risk factors and predicting outcomes. Future research should focus on identifying how data science can be applied in other injury-related topics.

A comparative study of machine learning techniques for suicide attempts predictive model

Current suicide risk assessments for predicting suicide attempts are time consuming, of low predictive value and have inadequate reliability. This paper aims to develop a predictive model for suicide attempts among patients with depression using machine learning algorithms as well as presents a comparative study on single predictive models with ensemble predictive models for differentiating depressed patients with suicide attempts from non-suicide attempters. We applied and trained eight different machine learning algorithms using a dataset that consists of 75 patients diagnosed with a depressive disorder. A recursive feature elimination was used to reduce the features via three-fold cross validation. An ensemble predictive models outperformed the single predictive models. Voting and bagging revealed the highest accuracy of 92% compared to other machine learning algorithms. Our findings indicate that history of suicide attempt, religion, race, suicide ideation and severity of clinical depression are useful factors for prediction of suicide attempts.

Information and Communication Technology Use in Suicide Prevention: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

The use of information and communication technology (ICT) in suicide prevention has progressed rapidly over the past decade. ICT plays a major role in suicide prevention, but research on best and promising practices has been slow.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to explore the existing literature on ICT use in suicide prevention to answer the following question: what are the best and most promising ICT practices for suicide prevention?

METHODS

A scoping search was conducted using the following databases: PubMed, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts, and IEEE Xplore. These databases were searched for articles published between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2018. The five stages of the scoping review process were as follows: identifying research questions; targeting relevant studies; selecting studies; charting data; and collating, summarizing, and reporting the results. The World Health Organization suicide prevention model was used according to the continuum of universal, selective, and indicated prevention.

RESULTS

Of the 3848 studies identified, 115 (2.99%) were selected. Of these, 10 regarded the use of ICT in universal suicide prevention, 53 referred to the use of ICT in selective suicide prevention, and 52 dealt with the use of ICT in indicated suicide prevention.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of ICT plays a major role in suicide prevention, and many promising programs were identified through this scoping review. However, large-scale evaluation studies are needed to further examine the effectiveness of these programs and strategies. In addition, safety and ethics protocols for ICT-based interventions are recommended.

A Comprehensive Review of Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Major Mental and Neurological Disorders and Suicide: A Biostatistical Perspective on Data Mining

The World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that mental disorders, neurological disorders, and suicide are growing causes of morbidity. Depressive disorders, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, Alzheimer's disease, and other dementias account for 1.84%, 0.60%, 0.33%, and 1.00% of total Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Furthermore, suicide, the 15th leading cause of death worldwide, could be linked to mental disorders. More than 68 computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) methods published in peer-reviewed journals from 2016 to 2021 were analyzed, among which 75% were published in the year 2018 or later. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol was adopted to select the relevant studies. In addition to the gold standard, the sample size, neuroimaging techniques or biomarkers, validation frameworks, the classifiers, and the performance indices were analyzed. We further discussed how various performance indices are essential based on the biostatistical and data mining perspective. Moreover, critical information related to the Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines was analyzed. We discussed how balancing the dataset and not using external validation could hinder the generalization of the CAD methods. We provided the list of the critical issues to consider in such studies.

Suicidal Behavior in Fibromyalgia Patients: Rates and Determinants of Suicide Ideation, Risk, Suicide, and Suicidal Attempts-A Systematic Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis of Over 390,000 Fibromyalgia Patients

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, affecting ~800,000 people every year. Fibromyalgia is an extremely prevalent rheumatic disease with a predisposition for comorbid anxiety and depression, which are known risk factors for suicidal behavior. Suicidality and relevant risk factors for suicidal behavior have not been thoroughly studied in patients with fibromyalgia. Objectives: To investigate the risk of suicidal ideation and attempts in patients with fibromyalgia. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted and reported according to the "Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses" (PRISMA) standards. Also, the gray literature was extensively searched. Results: Thirteen studies were included in the present systematic review and meta-analysis, including 394,087 fibromyalgia patients. Sample size ranged from 44 to 199,739 subjects, mean age ranged from 45.8 to 54.5 years while the female percentage with fibromyalgia ranged from 17.1 to 100.0%. The overall suicide ideation prevalence was 29.57% (95%CI 1.84-72.07), with an OR 9.12 of (95%CI 1.42-58.77), ranging from 2.34 (95%CI 1.49-3.66) to 26.89 (95%CI 5.72-126.42). Pooled suicide attempt prevalence was 5.69% [95%CI 1.26-31.34], with an OR of 3.12 [95%CI 1.37-7.12]. Suicide risk was higher with respect to the general population with an OR of 36.77 (95%CI 15.55-96.94), as well as suicide events with an HR of 1.38 (95%CI 1.17-1.71). Determinants of suicidality were found to be: employment status, disease severity, obesity and drug dependence, chronic pain and co-morbidities, in particular depression, anxiety, poor sleep, and global mental health. However, in some cases, after adjusting for psychiatric conditions, the threshold of statistical significance was not achieved. Conclusion: Fibromyalgia patients are particularly prone to suicide, in terms of ideation, attempt, risk and events, warranting a pre-emptive screening of their mental health status. Given the few studies available, the high amount of heterogeneity, the evidence of publications bias and the lack of statistical significance when adjusting for underlying psychiatric co-morbidities, further high-quality studies should be conducted. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrial.gov, identifier 10.17605/OSF.IO/Y4BUE.

Artificial Intelligence and Suicide Prevention: A Systematic Review of Machine Learning Investigations

Suicide is a leading cause of death that defies prediction and challenges prevention efforts worldwide. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have emerged as a means of investigating large datasets to enhance risk detection. A systematic review of ML investigations evaluating suicidal behaviors was conducted using PubMed/MEDLINE, PsychInfo, Web-of-Science, and EMBASE, employing search strings and MeSH terms relevant to suicide and AI. Databases were supplemented by hand-search techniques and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria: (1) journal article, available in English, (2) original investigation, (3) employment of AI/ML, (4) evaluation of a suicide risk outcome. N = 594 records were identified based on abstract search, and 25 hand-searched reports. N = 461 reports remained after duplicates were removed, n = 316 were excluded after abstract screening. Of n = 149 full-text articles assessed for eligibility, n = 87 were included for quantitative synthesis, grouped according to suicide behavior outcome. Reports varied widely in methodology and outcomes. Results suggest high levels of risk classification accuracy (>90%) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) in the prediction of suicidal behaviors. We report key findings and central limitations in the use of AI/ML frameworks to guide additional research, which hold the potential to impact suicide on broad scale.

Detecting risk of suicide attempts among Chinese medical college students using a machine learning algorithm

BACKGROUND

Suicide has become one of the most prominent concerns for public health and wellness; however, detecting suicide risk factors among individuals remains a big challenge. The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning algorithm that could effectively and accurately identify the probability of suicide attempts in medical college students.

METHODS

A total of 4,882 medical students were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. Self-report data on socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were collected online via website or through the widely used social media app, WeChat. 5-fold cross validation was used to build a random forest model with 37 suicide attempt predictors. Model performance was measured for sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve (AUC), and accuracy. All analyses were conducted in MATLAB.

RESULTS

The random forest model achieved good performance [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.9255] in predicting suicide attempts with an accuracy of 90.1% (SD = 0.67%), sensitivity of 73.51% (SD = 2.33%) and specificity of 91.68% (SD = 0.82%).

LIMITATION

The participants are primarily females and medical students.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that the random forest model has the potential to predict suicide attempts among medical college students with high accuracy. Our findings suggest that application of the machine learning model may assist in improving the efficiency of suicide prevention.

Prediction of physical violence in schizophrenia with machine learning algorithms

Patients with schizophrenia have been shown to have an increased risk for physical violence. While certain features have been identified as risk factors, it has been difficult to integrate these variables to identify violent patients. The present study thus attempts to develop a clinically-relevant predictive tool. In a population of 275 schizophrenia patients, we identified 103 participants as violent and 172 as non-violent through electronic medical documentation, and conducted cross-sectional assessments to identify demographic, clinical, and sociocultural variables. Using these predictors, we utilized seven machine learning classification algorithms to predict for past instances of physical violence. Our classification algorithms predicted with significant accuracy compared to random discrimination alone, and had varying degrees of predictive power, as described by various performance measures. We determined that the random forest model performed marginally better than other algorithms, with an accuracy of 62% and an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.63. To summarize, machine learning classification algorithms are becoming increasingly valuable, though, optimization of these models is needed to better complement diagnostic decisions regarding early interventional measures to predict instances of physical violence.

Early-life stressful events and suicide attempt in schizophrenia: Machine learning models

Childhood abuse and neglect predicts suicide attempt. Furthermore, other early-life stressful events may predict lifetime suicide attempt in psychiatric disorders. We assessed 189 schizophrenics for suicide attempt and stressful life events. Early-life stressful events were used as predictors of lifetime suicide attempt in three machine learning models. In our sample, 38% of the schizophrenics had at least one suicide attempt lifetime. The machine learning models provided an overall significant prediction (accuracy range: 62-69%). Childhood sexual molestation and mental illness were important predictors of suicide attempt. Early-life stressful events should be included in models aiming at predicting suicide attempt in schizophrenia.

Prospective prediction of suicide attempts in community adolescents and young adults, using regression methods and machine learning

BACKGROUND

The use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to study suicidality has recently been recommended. Our aim was to explore whether ML approaches have the potential to improve the prediction of suicide attempt (SA) risk. Using the epidemiological multiwave prospective-longitudinal Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) data set, we compared four algorithms-logistic regression, lasso, ridge, and random forest-in predicting a future SA in a community sample of adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

The EDSP Study prospectively assessed, over the course of 10 years, adolescents and young adults aged 14-24 years at baseline. Of 3021 subjects, 2797 were eligible for prospective analyses because they participated in at least one of the three follow-up assessments. Sixteen baseline predictors, all selected a priori from the literature, were used to predict follow-up SAs. Model performance was assessed using repeated nested 10-fold cross-validation. As the main measure of predictive performance we used the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The mean AUCs of the four predictive models, logistic regression, lasso, ridge, and random forest, were 0.828, 0.826, 0.829, and 0.824, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our comparison, each algorithm performed equally well in distinguishing between a future SA case and a non-SA case in community adolescents and young adults. When choosing an algorithm, different considerations, however, such as ease of implementation, might in some instances lead to one algorithm being prioritized over another. Further research and replication studies are required in this regard.

The utility of artificial intelligence in suicide risk prediction and the management of suicidal behaviors

OBJECTIVE

Suicide is a growing public health concern with a global prevalence of approximately 800,000 deaths per year. The current process of evaluating suicide risk is highly subjective, which can limit the efficacy and accuracy of prediction efforts. Consequently, suicide detection strategies are shifting toward artificial intelligence platforms that can identify patterns within 'big data' to generate risk algorithms that can determine the effects of risk (and protective) factors on suicide outcomes, predict suicide outbreaks and identify at-risk individuals or populations. In this review, we summarize the role of artificial intelligence in optimizing suicide risk prediction and behavior management.

METHODS

This paper provides a general review of the literature. A literature search was conducted in OVID Medline, EMBASE and PsycINFO databases with coverage from January 1990 to June 2019. Results were restricted to peer-reviewed, English-language articles. Conference and dissertation proceedings, case reports, protocol papers and opinion pieces were excluded. Reference lists were also examined for additional articles of relevance.

RESULTS

At the individual level, prediction analytics help to identify individuals in crisis to intervene with emotional support, crisis and psychoeducational resources, and alerts for emergency assistance. At the population level, algorithms can identify at-risk groups or suicide hotspots, which help inform resource mobilization, policy reform and advocacy efforts. Artificial intelligence has also been used to support the clinical management of suicide across diagnostics and evaluation, medication management and behavioral therapy delivery. There could be several advantages of incorporating artificial intelligence into suicide care, which includes a time- and resource-effective alternative to clinician-based strategies, adaptability to various settings and demographics, and suitability for use in remote locations with limited access to mental healthcare supports.

CONCLUSION

Based on the observed benefits to date, artificial intelligence has a demonstrated utility within suicide prediction and clinical management efforts and will continue to advance mental healthcare forward.

Machine learning in mental health: a scoping review of methods and applications

BACKGROUND

This paper aims to synthesise the literature on machine learning (ML) and big data applications for mental health, highlighting current research and applications in practice.

METHODS

We employed a scoping review methodology to rapidly map the field of ML in mental health. Eight health and information technology research databases were searched for papers covering this domain. Articles were assessed by two reviewers, and data were extracted on the article's mental health application, ML technique, data type, and study results. Articles were then synthesised via narrative review.

RESULTS

Three hundred papers focusing on the application of ML to mental health were identified. Four main application domains emerged in the literature, including: (i) detection and diagnosis; (ii) prognosis, treatment and support; (iii) public health, and; (iv) research and clinical administration. The most common mental health conditions addressed included depression, schizophrenia, and Alzheimer's disease. ML techniques used included support vector machines, decision trees, neural networks, latent Dirichlet allocation, and clustering.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the application of ML to mental health has demonstrated a range of benefits across the areas of diagnosis, treatment and support, research, and clinical administration. With the majority of studies identified focusing on the detection and diagnosis of mental health conditions, it is evident that there is significant room for the application of ML to other areas of psychology and mental health. The challenges of using ML techniques are discussed, as well as opportunities to improve and advance the field.

A systematic review shows no performance benefit of machine learning over logistic regression for clinical prediction models

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to compare performance of logistic regression (LR) with machine learning (ML) for clinical prediction modeling in the literature.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a Medline literature search (1/2016 to 8/2017) and extracted comparisons between LR and ML models for binary outcomes.

RESULTS

We included 71 of 927 studies. The median sample size was 1,250 (range 72-3,994,872), with 19 predictors considered (range 5-563) and eight events per predictor (range 0.3-6,697). The most common ML methods were classification trees, random forests, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. In 48 (68%) studies, we observed potential bias in the validation procedures. Sixty-four (90%) studies used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to assess discrimination. Calibration was not addressed in 56 (79%) studies. We identified 282 comparisons between an LR and ML model (AUC range, 0.52-0.99). For 145 comparisons at low risk of bias, the difference in logit(AUC) between LR and ML was 0.00 (95% confidence interval, -0.18 to 0.18). For 137 comparisons at high risk of bias, logit(AUC) was 0.34 (0.20-0.47) higher for ML.

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence of superior performance of ML over LR. Improvements in methodology and reporting are needed for studies that compare modeling algorithms.

Machine learning in suicide science: Applications and ethics

For decades, our ability to predict suicide has remained at near-chance levels. Machine learning has recently emerged as a promising tool for advancing suicide science, particularly in the domain of suicide prediction. The present review provides an introduction to machine learning and its potential application to open questions in suicide research. Although only a few studies have implemented machine learning for suicide prediction, results to date indicate considerable improvement in accuracy and positive predictive value. Potential barriers to algorithm integration into clinical practice are discussed, as well as attendant ethical issues. Overall, machine learning approaches hold promise for accurate, scalable, and effective suicide risk detection; however, many critical questions and issues remain unexplored.

The use of machine learning in the study of suicidal and non-suicidal self-injurious thoughts and behaviors: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Machine learning techniques offer promise to improve suicide risk prediction. In the current systematic review, we aimed to review the existing literature on the application of machine learning techniques to predict self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs).

METHOD

We systematically searched PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, ERIC, CINAHL, and MEDLINE for articles published through February 2018.

RESULTS

Thirty-five articles met criteria to be included in the review. Included articles were reviewed by outcome: suicide death, suicide attempt, suicide plan, suicidal ideation, suicide risk, and non-suicidal self-injury. We observed three general aims in the use of SITB-focused machine learning analyses: (1) improving prediction accuracy, (2) identifying important model indicators (i.e., variable selection) and indicator interactions, and (3) modeling underlying subgroups. For studies with the aim of boosting predictive accuracy, we observed greater prediction accuracy of SITBs than in previous studies using traditional statistical methods. Studies using machine learning for variable selection purposes have both replicated findings of well-known SITB risk factors and identified novel variables that may augment model performance. Finally, some of these studies have allowed for subgroup identification, which in turn has helped to inform clinical cutoffs.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations of the current review include relatively low paper sample size, inconsistent reporting procedures resulting in an inability to compare model accuracy across studies, and lack of model validation on external samples.

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that leveraging machine learning techniques to further predictive accuracy and identify novel indicators will aid in the prediction and prevention of suicide.

Looking to the Future: A Synthesis of New Developments and Challenges in Suicide Research and Prevention

Suicide and attempted suicide are major public health concerns. In recent decades, there have been many welcome developments in understanding and preventing suicide, as well as good progress in intervening with those who have attempted suicide. Despite these developments, though, considerable challenges remain. In this article, we explore both the recent developments and the challenges ahead for the field of suicide research and prevention. To do so, we consulted 32 experts from 12 countries spanning four continents who had contributed to the International Handbook of Suicide Prevention (2nd edition). All contributors nominated, in their view, (i) the top 3 most exciting new developments in suicide research and prevention in recent years, and (ii) the top 3 challenges. We have synthesized their suggestions into new developments and challenges in research and practice, giving due attention to implications for psychosocial interventions. This Perspective article is not a review of the literature, although we did draw from the suicide research literature to obtain evidence to elucidate the responses from the contributors. Key new developments and challenges include: employing novel techniques to improve the prediction of suicidal behavior; testing and applying theoretical models of suicidal behavior; harnessing new technologies to monitor and intervene in suicide risk; expanding suicide prevention activities to low and middle-income countries; moving toward a more refined understanding of sub-groups of people at risk and developing tailored interventions. We also discuss the importance of multidisciplinary working and the challenges of implementing interventions in practice.