Can polygenic risk scores contribute to cost-effective cancer screening? A systematic review

Genome‑wide association study and polygenic risk scores predict psoriasis and its shared phenotypes in Taiwan

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory dermatological disease, and there is a lack of understanding of the genetic factors involved in psoriasis in Taiwan. To establish associations between genetic variations and psoriasis, a genome‑wide association study was performed in a cohort of 2,248 individuals with psoriasis and 67,440 individuals without psoriasis. Using the ingenuity pathway analysis software, biological networks were constructed. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) diplotypes and haplotypes were analyzed using Attribute Bagging (HIBAG)‑R software and chi‑square analysis. The present study aimed to assess the potential risks associated with psoriasis using a polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis. The genetic association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in psoriasis and various human diseases was assessed by phenome‑wide association study. METAL software was used to analyze datasets from China Medical University Hospital (CMUH) and BioBank Japan (BBJ). The results of the present study revealed 8,585 SNPs with a significance threshold of P<5x10‑8, located within 153 genes strongly associated with the psoriasis phenotype, particularly on chromosomes 5 and 6. This specific genomic region has been identified by analyzing the biological networks associated with numerous pathways, including immune responses and inflammatory signaling. HLA genotype analysis indicated a strong association between HLA‑A*02:07 and HLA‑C*06:02 in a Taiwanese population. Based on our PRS analysis, the risk of psoriasis associated with the SNPs identified in the present study was quantified. These SNPs are associated with various dermatological, circulatory, endocrine, metabolic, musculoskeletal, hematopoietic and infectious diseases. The meta‑analysis results indicated successful replication of a study conducted on psoriasis in the BBJ. Several genetic loci are significantly associated with susceptibility to psoriasis in Taiwanese individuals. The present study contributes to our understanding of the genetic determinants that play a role in susceptibility to psoriasis. Furthermore, it provides valuable insights into the underlying etiology of psoriasis in the Taiwanese community.

Polygenic risk-stratified screening for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in high-risk endemic areas of China: a cost-effectiveness study

Background

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has an extremely high incidence rate in Southern China, resulting in a severe disease burden for the local population. Current EBV serologic screening is limited by false positives, and there is opportunity to integrate polygenic risk scores for personalized screening which may enhance cost-effectiveness and resource utilization.

Methods

A Markov model was developed based on epidemiological and genetic data specific to endemic areas of China, and further compared polygenic risk-stratified screening [subjects with a 10-year absolute risk (AR) greater than a threshold risk underwent EBV serological screening] to age-based screening (EBV serological screening for all subjects). For each initial screening age (30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, and 65-69 years), a modeled cohort of 100,000 participants was screened until age 69, and then followed until age 79.

Results

Among subjects aged 30 to 54 years, polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were more cost-effective than age-based screening strategies, and almost comprised the cost-effectiveness efficiency frontier. For men, screening strategies with a 1-year frequency and a 10-year absolute risk (AR) threshold of 0.7% or higher were cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below the willingness to pay (¥203,810, twice the local per capita GDP). Specifically, the strategies with a 10-year AR threshold of 0.7% or 0.8% are the most cost-effective strategies, with an ICER ranging from ¥159,752 to ¥201,738 compared to lower-cost non-dominated strategies on the cost-effectiveness frontiers. The optimal strategies have a higher probability (29.4-35.8%) of being cost-effective compared to other strategies on the frontier. Additionally, they reduce the need for nasopharyngoscopies by 5.1-27.7% compared to optimal age-based strategies. Likewise, for women aged 30-54 years, the optimal strategy with a 0.3% threshold showed similar results. Among subjects aged 55 to 69 years, age-based screening strategies were more cost-effective for men, while no screening may be preferred for women.

Conclusion

Our economic evaluation found that the polygenic risk-stratified screening could improve the cost-effectiveness among individuals aged 30-54, providing valuable guidance for NPC prevention and control policies in endemic areas of China.

Polygenic risk scores, radiation treatment exposures and subsequent cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for subsequent cancers attributable to the late effects of radiotherapy and other treatment exposures; thus, further understanding of the impact of genetic predisposition on risk is needed. Combining genotype data for 11,220 5-year survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort, we found that cancer-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from general population, genome-wide association study, cancer loci identified survivors of European ancestry at increased risk of subsequent basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio per s.d. of the PRS: OR = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.46), female breast cancer (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.27-1.58), thyroid cancer (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31-1.67), squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00-1.44) and melanoma (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.31-1.96); however, the association for colorectal cancer was not significant (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.94-1.52). An investigation of joint associations between PRSs and radiotherapy found more than additive increased risks of basal cell carcinoma, and breast and thyroid cancers. For survivors with radiotherapy exposure, the cumulative incidence of subsequent cancer by age 50 years was increased for those with high versus low PRS. These findings suggest a degree of shared genetic etiology for these malignancy types in the general population and survivors, which remains evident in the context of strong radiotherapy-related risk.

Benefits and harms of polygenic risk scores in organised cancer screening programmes: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

While polygenic risk scores (PRS) could enable the streamlining of organised cancer screening programmes, its current discriminative ability is limited. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to trade-off the benefits and harms of PRS-stratified cancer screening in China.

Methods

The validated National Cancer Center (NCC) modelling framework for six cancers (lung, liver, breast, gastric, colorectum, and oesophagus) was used to simulate cancer incidence, progression, stage-specific cancer detection, and risk of death. We estimated the number of cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, number needed to screen (NNS), overdiagnosis, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of one-time PRS-stratified screening strategy (screening 25% of PRS-defined high-risk population) for a birth cohort at age 60 in 2025, compared with unstratified screening strategy (screening 25% of general population) and no screening strategy. We applied lifetime horizon, societal perspective, and 3% discount rate. An ICER less than $18,364 per QALY gained is considered cost-effective.

Findings

One-time cancer screening for population aged 60 was the most cost-effective strategy compared to screening at other ages. Compared with an unstratified screening strategy, the PRS-stratified screening strategy averted more cancer deaths (61,237 vs. 40,329), had a lower NNS to prevent one death (307 vs. 451), had a slightly higher overdiagnosis (14.1% vs. 13.8%), and associated with an additional 130,045 QALYs at an additional cost of $1942 million, over a lifetime horizon. The ICER for all six cancers combined was $14,930 per QALY gained, with the ICER varying from $7928 in colorectal cancer to $39,068 in liver cancer. ICER estimates were sensitive to changes in risk threshold and cost of PRS tools.

Interpretation

PRS-stratified screening strategy modestly improves clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of organised cancer screening programmes. Reducing the costs of polygenic risk stratification is needed before PRS implementation.

Funding

The Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, the Jing-jin-ji Special Projects for Basic Research Cooperation, and the Sanming Project of the Medicine in Shenzhen.

Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools

Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.

Development of a Polygenic Risk Score to Predict Diverticulitis

BACKGROUND

Despite its prevalence and associated morbidity, we remain limited in our ability to predict the course of a patient with diverticular disease. Although several clinical and genetic risk factors have been identified, we do not know how these factors relate to one another.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to determine whether a polygenic risk score could improve risk prediction for diverticulitis and recurrent diverticulitis compared with a model using only clinical factors.

DESIGN

This is an observational study.

SETTING

The study examines the predictive ability of a polygenic risk score for diverticulitis developed using prior genome-wide association studies and validated using the MyCode biobank.

PATIENTS

This study included patients of European ancestry in the Geisinger Health System who were enrolled in the MyCode Community Health biobanking program.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The ability of a polygenic risk score to predict diverticulosis, diverticulitis, and recurrent diverticulitis was the main outcome measure of this study.

RESULTS

A total of 60,861 patients were included, of whom 9912 (16.3%) had diverticulosis or diverticulitis (5015 with diverticulosis and 4897 with diverticulitis). When divided into deciles, our polygenic risk score stratified patients by risk of both diverticulosis and diverticulitis with a 2-fold difference in disease risk between the highest and lowest deciles for diverticulitis and a 4.8-fold difference for recurrent complicated diverticulitis. When compared with clinical factors alone, our polygenic risk score was able to improve risk prediction of recurrent diverticulitis.

LIMITATIONS

Our population is largely located in a single geographic region and were classified by disease status, using international classification of diseases codes.

CONCLUSIONS

This predictive model stratifies patients based on genetic risk for diverticular disease. The increased frequency of recurrent disease in our high-risk patients suggests that a polygenic risk score, in addition to other factors, may help guide the discussion regarding surgical intervention. See Video Abstract .

DESARROLLO DE UNA PUNTUACIN DE RIESGO POLIGNICO PARA PREDECIR LA DIVERTICULITIS

ANTECEDENTES:A pesar de su prevalencia y morbilidad asociada, nuestra capacidad para predecir el curso en un paciente con enfermedad diverticular sigue siendo limitada. Si bien se han identificado varios factores de riesgo clínicos y genéticos, no sabemos cómo se relacionan estos factores entre sí.OBJETIVO:Determinar si una puntuación de riesgo poligénico podría mejorar la predicción del riesgo de diverticulitis y diverticulitis recurrente en comparación con un modelo que utiliza solo factores clínicos.DISEÑO:Un estudio observacional que examina la capacidad predictiva de una puntuación de riesgo poligénico para la diverticulitis desarrollada usando estudios previos de asociación amplia del genoma y validada usando el biobanco MyCode.ÁMBITOS Y PACIENTES:Pacientes de ascendencia europea en el Sistema de Salud Geisinger que estaban inscritos en el programa de biobancos MyCode Community Health.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE VALORACIÓN:La capacidad de una puntuación de riesgo poligénico para predecir diverticulosis, diverticulitis y diverticulitis recurrente.RESULTADOS:Se incluyeron un total de 60.861 pacientes, de los cuales 9.912 (16,3%) presentaban diverticulosis o diverticulitis (5.015 con diverticulosis y 4.897 con diverticulitis). Cuando se dividió en deciles, nuestra puntuación de riesgo poligénico estratificó a los pacientes según el riesgo de diverticulosis y diverticulitis con una diferencia de 2 veces en el riesgo de enfermedad entre los deciles más alto y más bajo para diverticulitis y una diferencia de 4,8 veces para diverticulitis complicada recurrente. En comparación con los factores clínicos solos, nuestra puntuación de riesgo poligénico pudo mejorar la predicción del riesgo de diverticulitis recurrente.LIMITACIONES:Nuestra población se encuentra en gran parte en una sola región geográfica y se clasificó por estado de enfermedad utilizando códigos de clasificación internacional de enfermedades.CONCLUSIONES:Este modelo predictivo estratifica a los pacientes en función del riesgo genético de enfermedad diverticular. La mayor frecuencia de enfermedad recurrente en nuestros pacientes de alto riesgo sugiere que un puntaje de riesgo poligénico, además de otros factores, puede ayudar a guiar la discusión sobre la intervención quirúrgica. (Traducción- Dr. Ingrid Melo ).

A cost-effectiveness analysis of lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography and a polygenic risk score

INTRODUCTION

Several studies have proved that Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) is a potential candidate for realizing precision screening. The effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer has been proved to reduce lung cancer specific and overall mortality, but the cost-effectiveness of diverse screening strategies remained unclear.

METHODS

The comparative cost-effectiveness analysis used a Markov state-transition model to assess the potential effect and costs of the screening strategies incorporating PRS or not. A hypothetical cohort of 300,000 heavy smokers entered the study at age 50-74 years and were followed up until death or age 79 years. The model was run with a cycle length of 1 year. All the transition probabilities were validated and the performance value of PRS was extracted from published literature. A societal perspective was adopted and cost parameters were derived from databases of local medical insurance bureau. Sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The strategy incorporating PRS was estimated to obtain an ICER of CNY 156,691.93 to CNY 221,741.84 per QALY gained compared with non-screening with the initial start age range across 50-74 years. The strategy that screened using LDCT alone from 70-74 years annually could obtain an ICER of CNY 80,880.85 per QALY gained, which was the most cost-effective strategy. The introduction of PRS as an extra eligible criteria was associated with making strategies cost-saving but also lose the capability of gaining more LYs compared with LDCT screening alone.

CONCLUSION

The PRS-based conjunctive screening strategy for lung cancer screening in China was not cost-effective using the willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 time Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and the optimal screening strategy for lung cancer still remains to be LDCT screening for now. Further optimization of the screening modality can be useful to consider adoption of PRS and prospective evaluation remains a research priority.

Navigating the uncertainty of precision cancer screening: The role of shared decision-making

Objective

Describe how applying a shared decision making (SDM) lens to the implementation of new technologies can improve patient-centeredness.

Methods

This paper argues that the emergence of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for cancer screening presents an illustrative opportunity to include SDM when novel technologies enter clinical care.

Results

PRS are novel tools that indicate an individual's genetic risk of a given disease relative to the population. PRS are anticipated to help identify individuals most and least likely to benefit from screening. However, PRS have several types of uncertainty, including validity across populations, disparate computational methods, and inclusion of different genomic data across laboratories.

Conclusion

Implementing SDM alongside new technologies could prove useful for their ethical and patient-centered utilization. SDM's importance as an approach to decision-making will not diminish, as evidence, uncertainty, and patient values will remain intrinsic to the art and science of clinical care.

Innovation

SDM can help providers and patients navigate the considerable uncertainty inherent in implementing new technologies, enabling decision-making based on existing evidence and patient values.

Ethical, legal, and social implications of genetic risk prediction for multifactorial disease: a narrative review identifying concerns about interpretation and use of polygenic scores

Advances in genomics have enabled the development of polygenic scores (PGS), sometimes called polygenic risk scores, in the context of multifactorial diseases and disorders such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, and schizophrenia. PGS estimate an individual's genetic predisposition, as compared to other members of a population, for conditions which are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. There is significant interest in using genetic risk prediction afforded through PGS in public health, clinical care, and research settings, yet many acknowledge the need to thoughtfully consider and address ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI). To contribute to this effort, this paper reports on a narrative review of the literature, with the aim of identifying and categorizing ELSI relating to genetic risk prediction in the context of multifactorial disease, which have been raised by scholars in the field. Ninety-two articles, spanning from 1977 to 2021, met the inclusion criteria for this study. Identified ELSI included potential benefits, challenges and risks that focused on concerns about interpretation and use, and ethical obligations to maximize benefits, minimize risks, promote justice, and support autonomy. This research will support geneticists, clinicians, genetic counselors, patients, patient advocates, and policymakers in recognizing and addressing ethical concerns associated with PGS; it will also guide future empirical and normative research.

Quantifying the causal impact of biological risk factors on healthcare costs

Understanding the causal impact that clinical risk factors have on healthcare-related costs is critical to evaluate healthcare interventions. Here, we used a genetically-informed design, Mendelian Randomization (MR), to infer the causal impact of 15 risk factors on annual total healthcare costs. We calculated healthcare costs for 373,160 participants from the FinnGen Study and replicated our results in 323,774 individuals from the United Kingdom and Netherlands. Robust causal effects were observed for waist circumference (WC), adult body mass index, and systolic blood pressure, in which a standard deviation increase corresponded to 22.78% [95% CI: 18.75-26.95], 13.64% [10.26-17.12], and 13.08% [8.84-17.48] increased healthcare costs, respectively. A lack of causal effects was observed for certain clinically relevant biomarkers, such as albumin, C-reactive protein, and vitamin D. Our results indicated that increased WC is a major contributor to annual total healthcare costs and more attention may be given to WC screening, surveillance, and mitigation.

Polygenic scores in cancer

Since the publication of the first genome-wide association study for cancer in 2007, thousands of common alleles that are associated with the risk of cancer have been identified. The relative risk associated with individual variants is small and of limited clinical significance. However, the combined effect of multiple risk variants as captured by polygenic scores (PGSs) may be much greater and therefore provide risk discrimination that is clinically useful. We review the considerable research efforts over the past 15 years for developing statistical methods for PGSs and their application in large-scale genome-wide association studies to develop PGSs for various cancers. We review the predictive performance of these PGSs and the multiple challenges currently limiting the clinical application of PGSs. Despite this, PGSs are beginning to be incorporated into clinical multifactorial risk prediction models to stratify risk in both clinical trials and clinical implementation studies.

Clinical Impact of Polygenic Risk Score for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction in 382 Individuals with Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome

Single nucleotide polymorphisms are currently not considered in breast cancer (BC) risk predictions used in daily practice of genetic counselling and clinical management of familial BC in Germany. This study aimed to assess the clinical value of incorporating a 313-variant-based polygenic risk score (PRS) into BC risk calculations in a cohort of German women with suspected hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC). Data from 382 individuals seeking counselling for HBOC were analysed. Risk calculations were performed using the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm with and without the inclusion of the PRS. Changes in risk predictions and their impact on clinical management were evaluated. The PRS led to changes in risk stratification based on 10-year risk calculations in 13.6% of individuals. Furthermore, the inclusion of the PRS in BC risk predictions resulted in clinically significant changes in 12.0% of cases, impacting the prevention recommendations established by the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer. These findings support the implementation of the PRS in genetic counselling for personalized BC risk assessment.

The PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium: Ten years' experience of association studies to understand the genetic architecture of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer has an incidence that almost matches its mortality. Only a small number of risk factors and 33 susceptibility loci have been identified. so Moreover, the relative rarity of pancreatic cancer poses significant hurdles for research aimed at increasing our knowledge of the genetic mechanisms contributing to the disease. Additionally, the inability to adequately power research questions prevents small monocentric studies from being successful. Several consortia have been established to pursue a better understanding of the genetic architecture of pancreatic cancers. The Pancreatic disease research (PANDoRA) consortium is the largest in Europe. PANDoRA is spread across 12 European countries, Brazil and Japan, bringing together 29 basic and clinical research groups. In the last ten years, PANDoRA has contributed to the discovery of 25 susceptibility loci, a feat that will be instrumental in stratifying the population by risk and optimizing preventive strategies.

Implementing precision medicine in endoscopy practice

In contrast to the "one-size-fits-all" approach, precision medicine focuses on providing health care tailored to individual variabilities. Implementing precision medicine in endoscopy practice involves selecting the appropriate procedures among the endoscopic armamentarium in the diagnosis and management of patients in a logical sequence, jointly considering the pretest probabilities of possible diagnoses, patients' comorbidities and preference, and risk-benefit ratio of the individual procedures given the clinical scenario. The aim of this review is to summarize evidence-supported strategies and measures that may enhance precision medicine in general endoscopy practice.