Predictive ability of HAS-BLED, HEMORR2HAGES, and ATRIA bleeding risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation. A French nationwide cross-sectional study

The safety of available pharmacotherapy for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

INTRODUCTION

Oral anticoagulant drugs reduce the risk of stroke associated with atrial fibrillation. Vitamin K antagonists, gold standard therapy for decades, have been deposed by the direct oral anticoagulants that exhibit superior safety profiles. However, hemorrhagic complications remain a major concern to anticoagulation.

AREAS COVERED

We searched available data in the literature to review the current knowledge on the safety profiles of available anticoagulants.

EXPERT OPINION

Despite a relevant leap forward with the introduction of DOACs, safety concerns persist in some fields of the current pharmacotherapy for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. In-depth knowledge of the safety profile of available anticoagulants and dealing with safety issues in patient subgroups is of utmost importance. Bleeding risk scores should not be dichotomously used to decide anticoagulation treatment but rather to promote shared decision, identify and correct modifiable risk factors, and set monitoring frequency. Additional issues that wait to be investigated in order to improve the safety of therapy include circulating levels of direct oral anticoagulants and anticoagulation in patient sub-groups: very elderly, frail, those with advanced kidney or liver disease, and so on. Safety may be improved from the in-depth knowledge of safety concerns and therapeutic options.

2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate.

STRUCTURE

Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.

2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate.

STRUCTURE

Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.

Long-term impact of cardiorenal syndromes on major outcomes based on their chronology: a comprehensive French nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiorenal syndromes (CRSs) are reputed to result in worse prognosis than isolated heart failure (HF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Whether it is true for all major outcomes over the long-term regardless of CRS chronology (simultaneous, cardiorenal and renocardiac CRS) is unknown.

METHODS

The 5-year adjusted risk of major outcomes was assessed in this nationwide retrospective cohort study in all 385 687 with either CKD or HF (out of 5 123 193 patients who were admitted in a French hospital in 2012).

RESULTS

Overall, 84.0% patients had HF and 8.9% had CKD (they had similar age, sex ratio, diabetes and hypertension prevalence), while 7.1% had CRS (cardiorenal: 44.6%, renocardiac: 14.5%, simultaneous CRS: 40.8%).The incidence of major outcomes was 57.3%, 53.0%, 79.2% for death; 18.8%, 10.9%, 27.5% for cardiovascular death; 52.6%, 34.7%, 64.3% for HF; 6.2%, 5.5%, 5.6% for myocardial infarction (MI); 6.1%, 5.8%, 5.3% for ischaemic stroke; and 23.1%, 4.8%, 16.1% for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) for isolated CKD, isolated HF and CRS, respectively.As compared with isolated CKD or HF, the risk of death, cardiovascular death and HF was markedly increased in CRS, the worse phenotype being cardiorenal CRS, while the increased risk of MI and ischaemic stroke associated with CRS subtypes was statistically but not clinically significant. As compared with isolated CKD, the risk of ESKD was similar for cardiorenal CRS only and marginally increased for renocardiac and simultaneous CRS. We could not find a synergy between HF and CKD on major clinical outcomes in the whole population (n = 5 123 193 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

The additional impact of CRS versus isolated HF or CKD on long-term kidney and cardiovascular risk is highly heterogenous, depending of the event considered and CRS chronology. No synergy between HF and CKD could be demonstrated.

Established Clinical Prediction Rules for Bleeding had Mediocre Discrimination in Left Ventricular Assist Device Recipients

Left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) reduce mortality in patients with end-stage heart failure, but LVAD management is frequently complicated by bleeding. Bleeding prediction post-LVAD implantation is challenging as prediction rules for hemorrhage have not been rigorously studied in this population. We aimed to validate clinical prediction rules for bleeding, derived in the atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism populations, in an LVAD cohort. This was a retrospective cohort study of LVAD recipients at an academic center. The primary end-point was time to gastrointestinal bleed or intracranial hemorrhage after implant; the secondary end-point was time to any major hemorrhage after hospital discharge. Four hundred and eighteen patients received an LVAD (135 HeartMate II, 125 HeartMate 3, 158 HVAD) between November 2009 and January 2019. The primary end-point occurred in 169 (40.4%) patients with C-statistics ranging 0.55-0.58 (standard deviation [SD] 0.02 for all models). The secondary end-point occurred in 167 (40.0%) patients with C-statistics ranging 0.53-0.58 (SD 0.02 for all models). Modifying the age and liver function thresholds increased the C-statistic range to 0.56-0.60 for the primary and secondary end-points. In a sensitivity analysis of HeartMate 3 patients, prediction rules performed similarly. Existing prediction rules for major bleeding had mediocre discrimination in an LVAD cohort.

Major Bleeding of Transjugular Native Kidney Biopsies. A French Nationwide Cohort Study

Introduction

The risk of bleeding associated with transjugular kidney biopsies is unclear, and which patients are the best candidates for this route is unknown.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study comparing proportion of bleeding associated with transjugular versus percutaneous native kidney biopsies in all patients in France in the 2010–2019 period. Major bleeding at day 8 (i.e., blood transfusions, hemorrhage/hematoma, angiographic intervention, nephrectomy) and risk of death at day 30 were assessed, and we used a bleeding risk score initially developed for the percutaneous route.

Results

Our analysis included 60,331 patients (transjugular route: 5305; percutaneous route: 55,026 patients). The observed proportion of major bleeding varied widely (transjugular vs. percutaneous): 0.4% versus 0.5% for the lowest risk scores (0–4) to 19.1% versus 30.8% for the highest risk scores (≥35). Transjugular was more frequently used than percutaneous route (39% vs. 24%) when the risk score was ≥20 (15,133/60,331; 25% of all patients). Transjugular was associated with a lower risk of major bleeding than percutaneous route in multivariate analyses (odds ratio [OR]: 0.88 [0.78–0.99]), especially for scores ≥20 (OR: 0.83 [0.72–0.96], (i.e., 25% of patients). Major bleeding was associated with an increased risk of death both for transjugular (OR: 1.77 [1.00–3.14]) and percutaneous (OR: 1.80 [1.43–2.28]) routes.

Conclusions

The transjugular route is independently associated with a lower risk of bleeding than the percutaneous route, especially in high-risk patients identified by a preprocedure risk score ≥20 (i.e., 25% of patients). Major bleeding is associated with an increased risk of death for both routes.

Comparative Analysis of Risk Stratification Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) has become a major global health concern and is associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes. Identifying risk factors in patients with AF can be challenging, given the high burden of comorbidities in these patients. Risk stratification schemes appear to facilitate accurate prediction of outcomes and assist therapeutic management decisions.

OBJECTIVE

To summarize current evidence on risk stratification scores for patients with AF.

RESULTS

Traditional risk models rely heavily on demographics and comorbidities, while newer tools have been gradually focusing on novel biomarkers and diagnostic imaging to facilitate more personalized risk assessment. Several studies have been conducted to compare existing risk schemes and identify specific patient populations in which the prognostic ability of each scheme excels. However, current guidelines do not appear to encourage the implementation of risk models in clinical practice, as they have not incorporated new ones in their recommendations for the management of patients with AF for almost a decade.

CONCLUSION

Further work is warranted to analyze new reliable risk stratification schemes and optimally implement them into routine clinical life.

Anticoagulation for newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and 90-day rates of stroke and bleeding

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation increases the risk of stroke, which can be mitigated by anticoagulant prescription. We evaluated local emergency physician anticoagulation practice for patients discharged from the emergency department with atrial fibrillation, along with 90-day incidence of stroke and major bleeding.

METHODS

This was a health record review of patients diagnosed with new onset atrial fibrillation in two emergency departments between 2014 and 2017. We collected data on CHADS65 scores, contraindications to direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) prescription and initiation of anticoagulation in the ED. Patient charts were reviewed for the diagnosis of stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), systemic embolism or major bleeding within 90 days.

RESULTS

We identified 399 patients, median age 68 (IQR 57-79), 213 (53%) male. Only 299/399 patients had an indication for anticoagulation (CHADS65-positive). Of these 299, 27 had a contraindication to or were already prescribed anticoagulation. 45/272 (17%, 95% confidence interval 12-22%) patients eligible for initiation of anticoagulation left the emergency department with a prescription for anticoagulation. During 90-day follow-up, seven patients had stroke or TIA. Four stroke/TIA patients had been eligible to start an anticoagulant but were not started, two left the emergency department with prescriptions for an anticoagulant and one patient had a contraindication to initiating anticoagulation in the emergency department. There were no major bleeding episodes.

CONCLUSION

Few eligible patients were prescribed anticoagulation and the 90-day stroke rate was high. Physicians should become familiar with the CAEP Acute AF Best Practices Checklist AF which offers guidance on anticoagulation prescription.

Assessment of factors affecting mortality in geriatric patients with warfarin overdose

OBJECTIVES:

The aim of the present study was to perform a demographic analysis of complications and to determine the factors affecting in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients with warfarin overdose.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

All patients aged 65 years or older using warfarin with an international normalized ratio (INR) level above 3.5 IU between 01.01.2014 and 01.01.2018 were included in the study. Characteristics of patients with in-hospital mortality and surviving patients were compared. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the predictors for in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS:

A total of 302 geriatric patients included in the study for statistical analyses. Bleeding rate was 14.2%. A comparison of patient characteristics for in-hospital mortality (survivor vs. nonsurvivor) revealed significant differences for age, gender, chronic renal failure history, creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alanine aminotransferase levels (P < 0.05). A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. It was found that elevated AST (P = 0.029, odds ratio [OR]: 1.004, 95% confidence intervals [CIs]; 1.001–1.007) and creatinine (P = 0.045, OR: 2.36, 95% CIs; 1.02–5.48) levels as well as advanced age (P = 0.031, OR: 1.11, 95% CIs; 1.01–1.22) and male gender (P = 0.017, OR: 5.48, 95% CIs; 1.35–22.1) had a negative impact on survival.

CONCLUSION:

Our study results revealed that male gender, advanced age, and hepatic and renal dysfunctions were the predictors of in-hospital mortality in the elderly with warfarin overdose. In order to avoid serious warfarin-related complications in the older age groups, particularly when there is renal or hepatic dysfunction, patients should be informed about minor warning side effects of warfarin, INR levels should be more frequently checked, and patients should have more strict follow-up schedules.

Major Bleeding and Risk of Death after Percutaneous Native Kidney Biopsies: A French Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The risk of major bleeding after percutaneous native kidney biopsy is usually considered low but remains poorly predictable. The aim of the study was to assess the risk of major bleeding and to build a preprocedure bleeding risk score.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Our study was a retrospective cohort study in all 52,138 patients who had a percutaneous native kidney biopsy in France in the 2010-2018 period. Measurements included major bleeding (i.e., blood transfusions, hemorrhage/hematoma, angiographic intervention, or nephrectomy) at day 8 after biopsy and risk of death at day 30. Exposures and outcomes were defined by diagnosis codes.

RESULTS

Major bleeding occurred in 2765 of 52,138 (5%) patients (blood transfusions: 5%; angiographic intervention: 0.4%; and nephrectomy: 0.1%). Nineteen diagnoses were associated with major bleeding. A bleeding risk score was calculated (Charlson index [2-4: +1; 5 and 6: +2; >6: +3]; frailty index [1.5-4.4: +1; 4.5-9.5: +2; >9.5: +3]; women: +1; dyslipidemia: -1; obesity: -1; anemia: +8; thrombocytopenia: +2; cancer: +2; abnormal kidney function: +4; glomerular disease: -1; vascular kidney disease: -1; diabetic kidney disease: -1; autoimmune disease: +2; vasculitis: +5; hematologic disease: +2; thrombotic microangiopathy: +4; amyloidosis: -2; other kidney diagnosis: -1) + a constant of 5. The risk of bleeding went from 0.4% (lowest score group =0-4 points) to 33% (highest score group ≥35 points). Major bleeding was an independent risk of death (500 of 52,138 deaths: bleeding: 81 of 2765 [3%]; no bleeding: 419 of 49,373 [0.9%]; odds ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.50 to 2.54; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of major bleeding after percutaneous native kidney biopsy may be higher than generally thought and is associated with a twofold higher risk of death. It varies widely but can be estimated with a score useful for shared decision making and procedure choice.

Incident Comorbidities, Aging and the Risk of Stroke in 608,108 Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Analysis

Background: We hypothesized that the change in stroke risk profile between baseline and follow-up may be a better predictor of ischemic stroke than the baseline stroke risk determination using the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ((congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (doubled), diabetes, stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (doubled), vascular disease (prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, or aortic plaque), age 65–75 years, sex category (female))). Methods: We collected information for all patients treated with atrial fibrillation (AF) in French hospitals between 2010 and 2019. We studied 608,108 patients with AF who did not have risk factors of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (except for age and sex). The predictive accuracies of baseline and follow-up CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores, as well as the ‘Delta CHA₂DS₂-VASc’ (i.e., change/difference between the baseline and follow-up CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores) for prediction of ischemic stroke were studied. Results: The mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score at baseline was 1.7, and increased to 2.4 during follow-up of 2.2 ± 2.4 years, (median (interquartile range: IQR) 1.2 (0.1–3.8) years), resulting in a mean Delta CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 0.7. Among 20,082 patients suffering ischemic stroke during follow-up, 67.1% had a Delta CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥1 while they were only 40.4% in patients without ischemic stroke. The follow-up CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and Delta CHA₂DS₂-VASc score were predictors of ischemic stroke (C-index 0.670, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.666–0.673 and 0.637, 95%CI 0.633–0.640) and they performed better than baseline CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (C-index 0.612, 95%CI 0.608–0.615, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Stroke risk was non-static, and many AF patients had ≥1 new stroke risk factor(s) before ischemic stroke occurred. The follow-up CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and its change (i.e., ‘Delta CHA₂DS₂-VASc’) were better predictors of ischemic stroke than relying on the baseline CHA₂DS₂-VASc score.

Performance of bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Bleeding risk scores have been created to identify patients with an increased bleeding risk, which could also be useful in dialysis patients. However, the predictive performances of these bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients are unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study was to validate existing bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients.

METHODS

A cohort of 1745 incident dialysis patients was prospectively followed for 3 years during which bleeding events were registered. We evaluated the discriminative performance of the Hypertension, Abnormal kidney and liver function, Stroke, Bleeding, Labile INR, Elderly and Drugs or alcohol (HASBLED), the AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation (ATRIA), the Hepatic or kidney disease, Ethanol abuse, Malignancy, Older age, Reduced platelet count or Reduced platelet function, Hypertension, Anaemia, Genetic factors, Excessive fall risk and Stroke (HEMORR2HAGES) and the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment (ORBIT) bleeding risk scores by calculating C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In addition, calibration was evaluated by comparing predicted and observed risks.

RESULTS

Of the 1745 dialysis patients, 183 patients had a bleeding event, corresponding to an incidence rate of 5.23/100 person-years. The HASBLED [C-statistic of 0.58 (95% CI 0.54-0.62)], ATRIA [C-statistic of 0.55 (95% CI 0.51-0.60)], HEMORR2HAGES [C-statistic of 0.56 (95% CI 0.52-0.61)] and ORBIT [C-statistic of 0.56 (95% CI 0.52-0.61)] risk scores had poor discriminative performances in dialysis patients. Furthermore, the calibration analyses showed that patients with a low risk of bleeding according to the HASBLED, ATRIA, HEMORR2HAGES and ORBIT bleeding risk scores had higher incidence rates for bleeding in our cohort than predicted.

CONCLUSIONS

The HASBLED, ATRIA, HEMORR2HAGES and ORBIT bleeding risk scores had poor predictive abilities in dialysis patients. Therefore, these bleeding risk scores may not be useful in this population.

Platelet Count and Bleeding in Patients Receiving Anticoagulant Therapy for Venous Thromboembolism: Lesson from the RIETE Registry

Major bleeding is one of the most dangerous complications for patients undergoing anticoagulant treatment for VTE. Several clinical scores have been planned to identify patients at higher risk of bleeding, and most of them take into consideration the number of platelets in particular if lower than normal. Here we report the clinical experience made with the RIETE registry concerning anticoagulant treatment in the presence of different values of platelets and their related risk of bleeding.

Impact of Sapien 3 Balloon-Expandable Versus Evolut R Self-Expandable Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in Patients With Aortic Stenosis

Background:

Two competing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) technologies are currently available. Head-to-head comparisons of the relative performances of these 2 devices have been published. However, long-term clinical outcome evaluation remains limited by the number of patients analyzed, in particular, for recent-generation devices.

Methods:

Based on the French administrative hospital-discharge database, the study collected information for all consecutive patients treated with a TAVR device commercialized in France between 2014 and 2018. Propensity score matching was used for the analysis of outcomes during follow-up. The objective of this study was to analyze the outcomes of TAVR according to Sapien 3 balloon-expandable (BE) versus Evolut R self-expanding TAVR technology at a nationwide level in France.

Results:

A total of 31 113 patients treated with either Sapien 3 BE or Evolut R self-expanding TAVR were found in the database. After matching on baseline characteristics, 20 918 patients were analyzed (10 459 in each group with BE or self-expanding valves). During follow-up (mean [SD], 358 [384]; median [interquartile range], 232 [10–599] days), BE TAVR was associated with a lower yearly incidence of all-cause death (relative risk, 0.88; corrected P =0.005), cardiovascular death (relative risk, 0.82; corrected P =0.002), and rehospitalization for heart failure (relative risk, 0.84; corrected P <0.0001). BE TAVR was also associated with lower rates of pacemaker implantation after the procedure (relative risk, 0.72; corrected P <0.0001).

Conclusions:

On the basis of the largest cohort available, we observed that Sapien 3 BE valves were associated with lower rates of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, rehospitalization for heart failure, and pacemaker implantation after a TAVR procedure.

A Systematic Review of Prophylactic Anticoagulation in Nephrotic Syndrome

Introduction

Nephrotic syndrome is associated with an increased risk of venous and arterial thromboembolism, which can be as high as 40% depending on the severity and underlying cause of nephrotic syndrome. The 2012 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines recommend prophylactic anticoagulation only in idiopathic membranous nephropathy but acknowledge that existing data are limited and of low quality. There is a need for better identification of vulnerable patients in order to balance the risks of anticoagulation.

Methods

We undertook a systematic search of the topic in MEDLINE, EMBASE and COCHRANE databases, for relevant articles between 1990 and 2019.

Results

A total of 2381 articles were screened, with 51 full-text articles reviewed. In all, 28 articles were included in the final review.

Conclusion

We discuss the key questions of whom to anticoagulate, when to anticoagulate, and how to prophylactically anticoagulate adults with nephrotic syndrome. Using available evidence, we expand upon current KDIGO guidelines and construct a clinical algorithm to aid decision making for prophylactic anticoagulation in nephrotic syndrome.

Atrial Fibrillation in Active Cancer Patients: Expert Position Paper and Recommendations

Improvements in survival among cancer patients have revealed the clinical impact of cardiotoxicity on both cardiovascular and hematological and oncological outcomes, especially when it leads to the interruption of highly effective antitumor therapies. Atrial fibrillation is a common complication in patients with active cancer and its treatment poses a major challenge. These patients have an increased thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risk but standard stroke prediction scores have not been validated in this population. The aim of this expert consensus-based document is to provide a multidisciplinary and practical approach to the prevention and treatment of atrial fibrillation in patients with active cancer. This is a position paper of the Spanish Cardio-Oncology working group and the Spanish Thrombosis working group, drafted in collaboration with experts from the Spanish Society of Cardiology, the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology, the Spanish Society of Radiation Oncology, and the Spanish Society of Hematology.

C2 HEST Score and Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Poststroke Patients: A French Nationwide Study

Background

The C₂HEST score (coronary artery disease or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [1 point each]; hypertension [1 point]; elderly [age ≥75 years, 2 points]; systolic heart failure [2 points]; thyroid disease [hyperthyroidism, 1 point]) was initially proposed for predicting incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population. Its performance in poststroke patients remains to be established, especially because patients at high risk for incident AF should be targeted for more comprehensive screening. This study aimed to evaluate this newly established incident AF prediction risk score in a post–ischemic stroke population.

Methods and Results

Validation was based on a hospital‐based nationwide cohort with 240 459 French post–ischemic stroke patients. Kaplan–Meier curves for incident rate of AF depict differences between varying risk categories. Discrimination of the C₂HEST score was evaluated using the C index, the net reclassification index, integrated discriminatory improvement, and decision curve analysis. During 7.9±11.5 months of follow‐up, 14 095 patients developed incident AF. The incidence of AF increased from 23.5 per 1000 patient‐years in patients with a C₂HEST score of 0 to 196.8 per 1000 patient‐years in patients with a C₂HEST score ≥6. Kaplan–Meier curves showed a clear difference among different risk strata (log‐rank P<0.0001). The C₂HEST score had good discrimination with a C index of 0.734 (95% CI, 0.732–0.736), which was better than the Framingham risk score and the CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled], vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, and female sex) (P<0.0001, respectively). The C₂HEST score was also superior to the Framingham risk score and the CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score as shown by the net reclassification index, integrated discriminatory improvement (P<0.0001, respectively) and decision curve analysis.

Conclusions

The C₂HEST score performed well in discriminating the individual risk of developing incident AF in a white European population hospitalized with previous ischemic stroke. This simple score may potentially be used as a risk stratification tool for decision making in relation to a screening strategy for AF in post–ischemic stroke patients.

Anticoagulation risk assessment for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism: A clinical review

Non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism anticoagulation risk assessment tools have been increasingly utilized to guide implementation and duration of anticoagulant therapy. Anticoagulation significantly reduces stroke and recurrent venous thromboembolism risk, but comes at the cost of increased risk of major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding. The decision for anticoagulation in high-risk patients is complicated by the fact that many risk factors associated with increased thromboembolic risk are simultaneously associated with increased bleeding risk. Traditional risk assessment tools rely heavily on age, sex, and presence of cardiovascular comorbidities, with newer tools additionally taking into account changes in risk factors over time and novel biomarkers to facilitate more personalized risk assessment. These tools may help counsel and inform patients about the risks and benefits of starting or continuing anticoagulant therapy and can identify patients who may benefit from more careful management. Although the ability to predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhagic risk is modest, ischemic and bleeding risk scores have been shown to add significant value to therapeutic management decisions. Ultimately, further work is needed to optimally implement accurate and actionable risk stratification into clinical practice.

Frailty Status Affects the Decision for Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy in Elderly Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients are underrepresented in the studies concerning anticoagulation therapy (AT) in atrial fibrillation (AF), while patients' frailty status is lacking in most of the studies.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to evaluate AT in AF elderly patients and study the effect of patients' frailty status on their long-term AT.

METHODS

We conducted an observational prospective study that enrolled consecutive AF patients (≥ 75 years) who were hospitalized in the Department of Internal Medicine of the University Hospital of Heraklion, Crete, Greece from 1 June 2015 to 1 June 2016. We recorded the AT on admission and at discharge, all-cause mortality, and hospital readmission in a follow-up period of 1 year after hospital discharge. Frailty status was assessed by pre-established scores.

RESULTS

One hundred and four consecutive patients (49% male; median age 87 years) were enrolled, 78 (78.8%) of whom received AT at discharge. Patients who did not receive AT at discharge had a higher HEMORR₂HAGES (Hepatic or renal disease, Ethanol abuse, Malignancy, Older age, Reduced platelet count or function, Re-bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic factors, Excessive fall risk and Stroke) score (5.5 ± 1.15 vs. 4.79 ± 1.68; p = 0.032), a lower Katz score (2.48 ± 2.23 vs. 4.08 ± 2.25; p = 0.006), and a higher Clinical Frailty Scale score (7 ± 1.95 vs. 5.57 ± 2.05; p = 0.006). Sixty-five patients (62.5%) were readmitted to a hospital during the follow-up period. In-hospital death occurred in five patients (4.8%) and 57 patients (57.6%) died within the follow-up period.

CONCLUSION

A high percentage of the elderly AF patients did not receive AT, even at discharge. Patients who did not receive AT at discharge had higher bleeding and frailty scores. In the 1-year follow-up period after hospital discharge, high all-cause mortality and a high number of hospital readmissions were recorded.

Xafran, a drug utilization study of rivaroxaban in stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation in France using a claim database

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the utilization of rivaroxaban in real life treatment settings in France.

AIMS

Objectives of this study were to describe the conditions of use and treatment persistence in patients with atrial fibrillation and treated with rivaroxaban for stroke prevention (SP-AF).

METHODS

A cohort study was performed using a representative sample of the French nationwide database. All adults who initiated rivaroxaban for SP-AF between 01/08/2012 and 31/12/2014 were included and followed for one year. Inappropriate use of rivaroxaban's was defined as use inconsistent with the summary of product characteristics.

RESULTS

In this study, 1278 patients were included, 687 (53.8%) were men and the mean age was 73.4years; 123 patients (9.6%) had a stroke and 78 (6.1%) a major bleeding event in the three years before rivaroxaban initiation. At treatment initiation 236 (18.5%) had chronic congestive heart failure, 991 (77.5%) hypertension, 247 (19.3%) diabetes and 9 (0.7%) HIV, hepatitis B or C infection. No anticoagulant had been administered in the six previous months for 777 patients (60.8%); 160 patients (12.5%) had an inappropriate use of rivaroxaban in SP-AF. At 6 and 12 months after the first delivery with rivaroxaban, 62.8%, and 51.7% (68.5% and 60.5% in sensitivity analyses) of the patients were still treated with rivaroxaban. The proportion of patients with a continuous medication availability above 80% was 96.1%.

CONCLUSION

The characteristics of patients in this study are similar to patients treated with this drug in other observational studies. Adherence and persistence with rivaroxaban can be considered good.

Real-World Health Care Costs Based on Medication Adherence and Risk of Stroke and Bleeding in Patients Treated with Novel Anticoagulant Therapy

BACKGROUND

With the lack of real-world evidence, the challenge for drug reimbursement policy decision makers is to understand medication adherence behavior among users of novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and its effect on overall cost savings. No study has examined and quantified the burden of cost in high-risk patients taking NOAC therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of cost with adherence, comorbidity, and risk of stroke and bleeding in patients taking NOACs (rivaroxaban and dabigatran).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study used deidentified data from a commercial managed care database affiliated with Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (January 1, 2010-December 31, 2012). Patients aged 18 years and older with ≥ 1 diagnosis of atrial fibrillation/flutter, > 1 NOAC prescription, 6-month pre-index and 12-month post-index continuous enrollment, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 1 were included. Adherence was calculated using proportion of days covered (PDC ≥ 80%) over an assessment period of 3, 6, and 12 months and compared based on level of comorbidity, stroke, and bleeding risk. The adjusted annual health care costs per patient (drug, medical, and total) were calculated using multivariable gamma regression controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics and compared across groups based on adherence over 12 months, baseline level of comorbidity, and risk of stroke and bleeding.

RESULTS

Of 25,120 NOAC patients, 2,981 patients were included in the final cohort. Based on a PDC threshold of ≥ 80%, the adherence rate over 3, 6, and 12 months was 72%, 65%, and 54%, respectively. For all time periods, the level of adherence significantly increased (P < 0.001), with an increase in stroke risk (based on CHA₂DS₂VASc scores of 1, 2-3, and 4+); comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index scores of 0, 1-2, and 3+); and risk of bleeding (HAS-BLED scores of 0-1, 2, and 3+). Adjusted all-cause total cost calculated for a 12-month period was significantly lower ($29,742 vs. $33,609) among adherent versus nonadherent users. Drug cost was higher ($5,595 vs. $2,233) among adherent versus nonadherent patients but was offset by lower medical costs ($23,544 vs. $30,485) costs. The overall cost significantly increased for patients with a high risk of bleeding and a high level of comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to NOAC therapy led to a reduction in overall health care cost, since higher drug costs were offset by lower medical (inpatient and outpatient) costs among adherent patients. Cost information based on adherence and risk of stroke and bleeding can help formulary decision makers to assess risk-benefit and help clinicians in developing interventions to reduce patient burden.

DISCLOSURES

Funding to acquire the data source was provided by the University of Rhode Island College of Pharmacy, Kingston, to support PhD dissertation work. Deshpande is currently an employee of Pharmerit International.

Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation According to Gender in Patients With Ischemic Stroke From a Nationwide Cohort

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score may identify patients at higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) following ischemic stroke (IS) in patients without known AF. We compared gender-related differences in items from CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and their relation with AF occurrence after IS. This French cohort study was based on the database covering hospital care from 2009 to 2012 for the entire population. Of 336,291 patients with IS, 240,459 (71.5%) had no AF at baseline. Women were older, more frequently had hypertension, heart failure, and had a higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc score than men (4.63 vs 4.39, p<2DS₂-VASc score items were independent predictors of incident AF, except diabetes and vascular disease). Results were mostly similar in men and women when one analyzed separately these predictors. Predictive value of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score for identifying patients at higher risk of incident AF was somewhat higher in men (C statistic 0.720, 95% confidence interval 0.717 to 0.722) than in women (0.702, 95% confidence interval 0.699 to 0.704). Coronary artery disease, valvular disease, and history of pacemaker or defibrillator implantation were also independent predictors of incident AF. In conclusion, there were significant differences in co-morbidities, possible mechanisms, incidence, and predictors of AF between men and women after IS. However, a strategy using CHA₂DS₂-VASc score for identifying a higher risk of incident AF following IS was useful in both genders.

Contemporary utilization of antithrombotic therapy for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation: an audit in an Australian hospital setting

BACKGROUND

To document antithrombotic utilization in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), particularly, recently approved NOACs (nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants) and warfarin; and identify factors predicting the use of NOACs versus warfarin.

METHODS

A retrospective audit was conducted in an Australian hospital. Data pertaining to inpatients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) admitted between January and December 2014 were extracted. This included patient demographics, risk factors (stroke, bleeding), social history, medical conditions, medication history, medication safety issues, medication adherence, and antithrombotic prescribed at admission and discharge.

RESULTS

Among 199 patients reviewed, 84.0% were discharged on antithrombotics. Anticoagulants (± antiplatelets) were most frequently (52.0%) prescribed (two-thirds were prescribed warfarin, the remainder NOACs), followed by antiplatelets (33.0%). Among 41 patients receiving NOACs, 59.0% were prescribed rivaroxaban, 24.0% dabigatran, and 17.0% apixaban. Among patients aged 75 years and over, antiplatelets were most frequently used (37.0%), followed by warfarin (33.0%), then NOACs (14.0%). Compared with their younger counterparts, patients aged 75 years and over were significantly less likely to receive NOACs (14.0% versus 28.0%, p = 0.01). Among the 'most eligible' patients (Congestive Cardiac Failure, Hypertension (, Age ⩾ 75 years, Age= 65-74 years, Diabetes Mellitus, Stroke/ Transient Ischaemic Attack/ Thromboembolism, Vascular disease, Sex female[CHA2DS2-VASc] score ⩾2 and no bleeding risk factors), 46.0% were not anticoagulated on discharge. Patients with anaemia (68.0% versus 86.0%, p = 0.04) or a history of bleeding (65.0% versus 87.0%, p = 0.01) were less likely to receive antithrombotics compared with those without these risk factors. Warfarin therapy was less frequently prescribed among patients with cognitive impairment compared with patients with no cognitive issues (12.0% versus 23.0%, p = 0.01). Multivariate logistic regression modelling identified that patients with renal impairment were 3.6 times more likely to receive warfarin compared with NOACs (odds ratio = 3.6, 95% confidence interval = 0.08-0.90, p = 0.03, 60.0% correctly predicted; Cox and Snell R2 = 0.51, Nagelkerke R2 = 0.69).

CONCLUSION

Despite the availability of NOACs, warfarin remains a preferred treatment option, particularly among patients with renal impairment. The high proportion of eligible patients still being prescribed antiplatelet therapy or 'no therapy' needs to be addressed.

Evaluation of the predictive performance of bleeding risk scores in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulants

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE

Bleeding risk scores (BRSs) aid in the assessment of oral anticoagulant-related bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. Ideally, the applicability of a BRS needs to be assessed, prior to its routine use in a population other than the original derivation cohort. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of 6 established BRSs to predict major or clinically relevant bleeding (CRB) events associated with the use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) among Malaysian patients.

METHODS

The pharmacy supply database and the medical records of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) receiving warfarin, dabigatran or rivaroxaban at two tertiary hospitals were reviewed. Patients who experienced an OAC-associated major or CRB event within 12 months of follow-up, or who have received OAC therapy for at least 1 year, were identified. The BRSs were fitted separately into patient data. The discrimination and the calibration of these BRSs as well as the factors associated with bleeding events were then assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 1017 patients with at least 1-year follow-up period, or those who developed a bleeding event within 1 year of OAC use, were recruited. Of which, 23 patients experienced a first major bleeding event, whereas 76 patients, a first CRB event. Multivariate logistic regression results show that age of 75 or older, prior bleeding and male gender are associated with major bleeding events. On the other hand, prior gastrointestinal bleeding, a haematocrit value of less than 30% and renal impairment are independent predictors of CRB events. All the BRSs show a satisfactory calibration for major and CRB events. Among these BRSs, only HEMORR₂ HAGES (C-statistic = 0.71, 95% CI 0.60-0.82, P < .001) and ATRIA score (C-statistic = 0.70, 95% CI 0.58-0.82, P < .001) show acceptable discrimination performance for major bleeding events. All the 6 BRSs, however, lack acceptable predictive performance for CRB events.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evaluation study of the predictive performance of these 6 BRSs on clinically relevant bleeding events applied to the same cohort consisting of mainly Asian novel oral anticoagulant users. These BRSs show poor to acceptable predictive performance on OAC-induced major or CRB events. An improvement in the existing BRSs for OAC users is warranted.

Importance of time in therapeutic range on bleeding risk prediction using clinical risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation

Bleeding risk with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) is closely related to the quality of anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, reflected by time in therapeutic range (TTR). Here we compared the discrimination performance of different bleeding risk scores and investigated if adding TTR would improve their predictive value and clinical usefulness. We included 1361 AF patients stables on VKA for at least 6 months. Bleeding risk was assessed by the HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR₂HAGES scores. Major bleeding events were recorded after a median of 6.5 years follow-up. In this period 250 patients suffered major bleeds. Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated that HAS-BLED had the best discrimination performance, but adding the ‘labile INR’ criteria (i.e. TTR <65%) to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR₂HAGES increased their ability of discrimination and predictive value, with significant improvements in reclassification and discriminatory performance. Decision curve analyses (DCA) showed improvements of the clinical usefulness and a net benefit of the modified risk scores. In summary, in AF patients taking VKAs, the HAS-BLED score had the best predictive ability. Adding ‘labile INR’ to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR₂HAGES improved their predictive value for major bleeding leading to improved clinical usefulness compared to the original scores.

Prognostic factors of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation during a 2-year follow-up in China: An observational cohort study

This study aimed to reveal the incidence of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) during a 2-year follow-up and evaluate the related prognostic factors of these endpoints.In total, 200 elderly patients with AF and 400 age- and sex-matched patients without AF were enrolled in this prospective observational cohort study. The incidence of clinical endpoints, including thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and all-cause death, during the 2-year follow-up was analyzed. Other follow-up data, including disease history, laboratory examinations, medication status, and other clinical endpoints, were collected. The prognostic factors of these clinical endpoints were then evaluated by Cox-survival analysis. In addition, the predicative role of C-reactive protein (CRP) and platelet-activating factor (PAF) on these clinical endpoints was analyzed.The incidence of clinical endpoints, including thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and all-cause death, was significantly higher in patients with AF than in those without AF (27.8% vs 9.8%, 29.4% vs 12.7%, and 28.7% vs 11.6%, respectively; all P < .001). Antithrombotic therapy significantly reduced the incidences of all-cause deaths (P < .05). Body mass index (BMI) and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of thromboembolism; age, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of hemorrhage and age, renal insufficiency history, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of all-cause death (P < .05). Further, both CRP and PAF were prognostic risk factors of thromboembolism and massive hemorrhage (P < .05).Age, BMI, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin appear to be prognostic risk factors of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with AF. Appropriate drug use during follow-up may be beneficial in preventing the occurrence of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with AF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR-OCH-13003479.

Non-Vitamin K Oral Anticoagulants for Stroke Prevention in Special Populations with Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism compared with normal sinus rhythm. These strokes may efficiently be prevented in patients with risk factors using oral anticoagulant therapy, with either vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) (i.e., direct thrombin inhibitors or direct factor Xa inhibitors). Owing to their specific risk profiles, some AF populations may have increased risks of both thromboembolic and bleeding events. These AF patients may be denied oral anticoagulants, whilst evidence shows that the absolute benefits of oral anticoagulants are greatest in patients at highest risk. NOACs are an alternative to VKAs to prevent stroke in patients with "non-valvular AF", and NOACs may offer a greater net clinical benefit compared with VKAs, particularly in these high-risk patients. Physicians have to learn how to use these drugs optimally in specific settings. We review concrete clinical scenarios for which practical answers are currently proposed for use of NOACs based on available evidence for patients with kidney disease, elderly patients, women, patients with diabetes, patients with low or high body weight, and those with valve disease.