Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in Central Asian Countries, 1990-2017

The mortality burden related to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 - years of life lost and excess mortality in 13 countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia

Introduction

Between 2021 and 2023, a project was funded in order to explore the mortality burden (YLL-Years of Life Lost, excess mortality) of COVID-19 in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Methods

For each national or sub-national region, data on COVID-19 deaths and population data were collected for the period March 2020 to December 2021. Unstandardized and age-standardised YLL rates were calculated according to standard burden of disease methodology. In addition, all-cause mortality data for the period 2015-2019 were collected and used as a baseline to estimate excess mortality in each national or sub-national region in the years 2020 and 2021.

Results

On average, 15-30 years of life were lost per death in the various countries and regions. Generally, YLL rates per 100,000 were higher in countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, there were differences in how countries and regions defined and counted COVID-19 deaths. In most countries and sub-national regions, YLL rates per 100,000 (both age-standardised and unstandardized) were higher in 2021 compared to 2020, and higher amongst men compared to women. Some countries showed high excess mortality rates, suggesting under-diagnosis or under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths, and/or relatively large numbers of deaths due to indirect effects of the pandemic.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the COVID-19 mortality burden was greater in many countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, heterogeneity in the data (differences in the definitions and counting of COVID-19 deaths) may have influenced our results. Understanding possible reasons for the differences was difficult, as many factors are likely to play a role (e.g., differences in the extent of public health and social measures to control the spread of COVID-19, differences in testing strategies and/or vaccination rates). Future cross-country analyses should try to develop structured approaches in an attempt to understand the relative importance of such factors. Furthermore, in order to improve the robustness and comparability of burden of disease indicators, efforts should be made to harmonise case definitions and reporting for COVID-19 deaths across countries.

Burden of cardiovascular disease among elderly: based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) has received increasing attention with population ageing worldwide.

AIMS

We reported on the global CVD burden in elderly individuals over 70, 1990-2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, elderly CVD burden data were analysed. Temporal burden trends were analysed with the joinpoint model. The slope index and concentration index were used to evaluate health inequality. From 1990 to 2019, the global elderly CVD incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates generally decreased. However, the current burden remains high. The rapid growth in burden in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia is a cause for concern. Countries with a higher socio-demographic index (SDI) have generally seen a greater decrease in burden, while countries with a lower SDI have generally experienced increases or smaller declines in burden. Health inequality analysis confirmed that the burden was gradually concentrating towards countries with a low SDI. Among the different CVDs, ischaemic heart disease causes the greatest burden in elderly individuals. Most CVD burdens increase with age, but stroke and peripheral vascular disease show markedly different distributional characteristics. In addition, the burden of hypertensive heart disease shows an unusual shift towards high-SDI countries. High systolic blood pressure was consistently the leading risk factor for CVD among elderly individuals.

CONCLUSION

The burden of CVD in older people remains severe and generally tends to shift to lower-SDI countries. Policymakers need to take targeted measures to reduce its harm.

Assessing Global, Regional, and National Time Trends and Associated Risk Factors of the Mortality in Ischemic Heart Disease Through Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death among noncommunicable diseases worldwide, but data on current epidemiological patterns and associated risk factors are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed the global, regional, and national trends in IHD mortality and attributable risks since 1990.

METHODS

Mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. We used an age-period-cohort model to calculate longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), net drift (overall annual percentage change), and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group) from 15 to >95 years of age and estimate cohort and period effects between 1990 and 2019. Deaths from IHD attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and theoretical minimum risk exposure level.

RESULTS

IHD is the leading cause of death in noncommunicable disease-related mortality (118.1/598.8, 19.7%). However, the age-standardized mortality rate for IHD decreased by 30.8% (95% CI -34.83% to -27.17%) over the past 30 years, and its net drift ranged from -2.89% (95% CI -3.07% to -2.71%) in high sociodemographic index (SDI) region to -0.24% (95% CI -0.32% to -0.16%) in low-middle-SDI region. The greatest decrease in IHD mortality occurred in the Republic of Korea (high SDI) with net drift -6.06% (95% CI -6.23% to -5.88%), followed by 5 high-SDI nations (Denmark, Norway, Estonia, the Netherlands, and Ireland) and 2 high-middle-SDI nations (Israel and Bahrain) with net drift less than -5.00%. Globally, age groups of >60 years continued to have the largest proportion of IHD-related mortality, with slightly higher mortality in male than female group. For period and birth cohort effects, the trend of rate ratios for IHD mortality declined across successive period groups from 2000 to 2004 and birth cohort groups from 1985 to 2000, with noticeable improvements in high-SDI regions. In low-SDI regions, IHD mortality significantly declined in female group but fluctuated in male group across successive periods; sex differences were greater in those born after 1945 in middle- and low-middle-SDI regions and after 1970 in low-SDI regions. Metabolic risks were the leading cause of mortality from IHD worldwide in 2019. Moreover, smoking, particulate matter pollution, and dietary risks were also important risk factors, increasingly occurring at a younger age. Diets low in whole grains and legumes were prominent dietary risks in both male and female groups, and smoking and high-sodium diet mainly affect male group.

CONCLUSIONS

IHD, a major concern, needs focused health care attention, especially for older male individuals and those in low-SDI regions. Metabolic risks should be prioritized for prevention, and behavioral and environmental risks should attract more attention to decrease IHD mortality.

The burden of ischemic heart disease and the epidemiologic transition in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: 1990-2019

It has been estimated that in the next decade, IHD prevalence, DALYs and deaths will increase more significantly in EMR than in any other region of the world. This study aims to provide a comprehensive description of the trends in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) across the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2019. Data on IHD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, DALYs attributable to risk factors, healthcare access and quality index (HAQ), and universal health coverage (UHC) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for EMR countries. The data were stratified based on the social demographic index (SDI). Information on cardiac rehabilitation was obtained from publications by the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR), and additional country-specific data were obtained through advanced search methods. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, applying the estimated age structure of the global population from 2019. Uncertainty intervals were calculated through 1000 iterations, and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were derived from these calculations. The age-standardized prevalence of IHD in the EMR increased from 5.0% to 5.5% between 1990 and 2019, while it decreased at the global level. In the EMR, the age-standardized rates of IHD mortality and DALYs decreased by 11.4% and 15.4%, respectively, during the study period, although both rates remained higher than the global rates. The burden of IHD was found to be higher in males compared to females. Bahrain exhibited the highest decrease in age-standardized prevalence (-3.7%), mortality (-65.0%), and DALYs (-69.1%) rates among the EMR countries. Conversely, Oman experienced the highest increase in prevalence (14.5%), while Pakistan had the greatest increase in mortality (30.0%) and DALYs (32.0%) rates. The top three risk factors contributing to IHD DALYs in the EMR in 2019 were high systolic blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and particulate matter pollution. The trend analysis over the 29-year period (1990-2019) revealed that high fasting plasma glucose (64.0%) and high body mass index (23.4%) exhibited increasing trends as attributed risk factors for IHD DALYs in the EMR. Our findings indicate an increasing trend in the prevalence of IHD and a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the EMR. These results emphasize the need for well-planned prevention and treatment strategies to address the risk factors associated with IHD. It is crucial for the countries in this region to prioritize the development and implementation of programs focused on health promotion, education, prevention, and medical care.

Incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years of acute myocardial infarction in Kazakhstan: data from unified national electronic healthcare system 2014-2019

Background

Cardiovascular diseases contribute to premature mortality globally, resulting in substantial social and economic burdens. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study reported that in 2019 alone, heart attack and strokes accounted for the deaths of 18.6 million individuals. Ischemic heart diseases, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), accounted for 182 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and it is leading cause of death worldwide.

Aim

The aim of this study is to present the burden of AMI in Kazakhstan and describe the outcome of hospitalized patients.

Methods

The data of 79,172 people admitted to hospital with ICD-10 diagnosis I21 between 2014 and 2019 was derived from the Unified National Electronic Health System and retrospectively analyzed.

Results

The majority of the cohort (53,285, 67%) were men, with an average age of 63 (±12) years, predominantly of Kazakh (38,057, 48%) and Russian (24,583, 31%) ethnicities. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (61,972, 78%). In males, a sharp increase in incidence is present after 40 years, while for females, the morbidity increases gradually after 55. Throughout the observation period, all-cause mortality rose from 101 to 210 people per million population (PMP). In 2019, AMI account for 169,862 DALYs in Kazakhstan, with a significant proportion (79%) attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLDs). Approximately half of disease burden due to AMI (80,794 DALYs) was in age group 55-69 years. Although incidence is higher for men, they have better survival rates than women. In terms of revascularization procedures, coronary artery bypass grafting yielded higher survival rates compared to percutaneous coronary intervention (86.3% and 80.9% respectively) during the 5-year follow-up.

Conclusion

This research evaluated the burden and disability-adjusted life years of AMI in Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asian country. The results show that more effective disease management systems and preventive measures at earlier ages are needed.

Risk assessment of dietary factors in global pattern of ischemic heart disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years over 30 years

Objectives

The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD)-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by dietary factors, as well as the influencing factors with age, period, and cohort effects, in regions with different social-demographic status from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We extracted data on IHD mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) related to dietary risks from 1990 to 2019 as IHD burden measures. Hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze age- and time-related trends and the interaction between different dietary factors on the risk of IHD mortality and DALYs.

Results

Globally, there were 9.2 million IHD deaths and 182 million DALYs in 2019. Both the ASRs of death and DALYs declined from 1990 to 2019 (percentage change: -30.8% and -28.6%, respectively), particularly in high and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) areas. Low-whole-grain, low-legume, and high-sodium diets were the three main dietary factors that increased the risk of IHD burden. Advanced age [RR (95%CI): 1.33 (1.27, 1.39)] and being male [1.11 (1.06, 1.16)] were independent risk factors for IHD mortality worldwide and in all SDI regions. After controlling for age effects, IHD risk showed a negative period effect overall. Poor diets were positively associated with increased risk of death but were not yet statistically significant. Interactions between dietary factors and advanced age were observed in all regions after adjusting for related variables. In people aged 55 and above, low intake of whole grains was associated with an increased risk of IHD death [1.28 (1.20, 1.36)]. DALY risks showed a similar but more obvious trend.

Conclusion

IHD burden remains high, with significant regional variations. The high IHD burden could be attributed to advanced age, sex (male), and dietary risk factors. Dietary habits in different SDI regions may have varying effects on the global burden of IHD. In areas with lower SDI, it is recommended to pay more attention to dietary problems, particularly in the elderly, and to consider how to improve dietary patterns in order to reduce modifiable risk factors.

Global food systems transitions have enabled affordable diets but had less favourable outcomes for nutrition, environmental health, inclusion and equity

Over the past 50 years, food systems worldwide have shifted from predominantly rural to industrialized and consolidated systems, with impacts on diets, nutrition and health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. We explore the potential for sustainable and equitable food system transformation (ideal state of change) by comparing countries at different stages of food system transition (changes) using food system typologies. Historically, incomes have risen faster than food prices as countries have industrialized, enabling a simultaneous increase in the supply and affordability of many nutritious foods. These shifts are illustrated across five food system typologies, from rural and traditional to industrial and consolidated. Evolving rural economies, urbanization and changes in food value chains have accompanied these transitions, leading to changes in land distribution, a smaller share of agri-food system workers in the economy and changes in diets. We show that the affordability of a recommended diet has improved over time, but food systems of all types are falling short of delivering optimal nutrition and health outcomes, environmental sustainability, and inclusion and equity for all. Six ‘outlier’ case studies (Tajikistan, Egypt, Albania, Ecuador, Bolivia and the United States of America) illustrate broad trends, trade-offs and deviations. With the integrated view afforded by typologies, we consider how sustainable transitions can be achieved going forward.

Obesity, Burden of Ischemic Heart Diseases and Their Ecological Association: The Case of Uzbekistan

Ischemic heart diseases are the leading cause of death in Uzbekistan. There are numerous risk factors affecting ischemic heart disease, and obesity is one of the major independent risk factors. This study is the first attempt to estimate the ecological association between obesity prevalence and the burden of ischemic heart disease between 1990 and 2019 in Uzbekistan. To define the prevalence of all obesity types, death, and incidences of ischemic heart disease for certain periods, the Joinpoint regression tool was used. A separate linear regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationship between obesity and ischemic heart disease mortality and morbidity. A positive linear relation was found between the prevalence of obesity types and incidence/death rates for both sexes (r = 0.59−0.87). All types of obesity were highly significant positive predictors of incidence of and death from ischemic heart disease (p < 0.0001). The slope (B1) suggested that for an increment in obesity prevalence of 1% among adults aged over 20, the incidence of ischemic heart disease increased by 40.2 (p < 0.0001) and 38.3 (p < 0.0001) per 100,000 persons for men and women, respectively. The current country-level conclusions are valuable, because it allows decision makers to draw specific conclusions, applicable at the state and local level for policymaking.

The Global Burden of Diseases attributed to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol from 1990 to 2019

Background

To demonstrate the real-word situation of burdens that are attributed to the risk factor of high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) at the global, regional, national levels, among different age groups and between genders.

Methods

We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 related to global deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), summary exposure value (SEV), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and observed to expected ratios (O/E ratios) attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2019.

Results

Globally, in 2019, the total numbers of deaths and DALYs attributed to high LDL cholesterol were 1.47 and 1.41 times higher than that in 1990. The age-standardized deaths and DALYs rate was 1.45 and 1.70 times in males compared to females, while the age-standardized SEVs rate was 1.10 times in females compared to males. The deaths, DALYs, and SEV rates increased with age. In 2019, the highest age-standardized rates of both deaths and DALYs occurred in Eastern Europe while the lowest occurred in high-income Asia Pacific. High-income North America experienced a dramatic reduction of risk related to high LDL-C. Correlation analysis identified that the age-standardized SEV rate was positively correlated with Socio-demographic Index (SDI; r = 0.7753, P < 0.001). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of age-standardized SEV rate decreased in the high SDI and high-middle SDI regions but increased in the middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI regions. High LDL-C mainly contributed to ischemic heart diseases.

Conclusion

High LDL-C contributed considerably to health burden worldwide. Males suffered worse health outcomes attributed to high LDL-C when compared to females. The burden attributed to high LDL-C increased with age. Lower SDI regions and countries experienced more health problem challenges attributed to high LDL-C as the result of social development and this should be reflected in policymaking.