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Lei M, Feng T, Chen M, Shen J, Liu J, Chang F, Chen J, Sun X, Mao Z, Li Y, Yin P, Tang P, Zhang L. Establishment and validation of an artificial intelligence web application for predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality in patients with hip fracture: a national cohort study of 52 707 cases. Int J Surg 2024; 110:4876-4892. [PMID: 38752505 PMCID: PMC11325965 DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000001599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2024] [Accepted: 04/26/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In-hospital mortality following hip fractures is a significant concern, and accurate prediction of this outcome is crucial for appropriate clinical management. Nonetheless, there is a lack of effective prediction tools in clinical practice. By utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning techniques, this study aims to develop a predictive model that can assist clinicians in identifying geriatric hip fracture patients at a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. METHODS A total of 52 707 geriatric hip fracture patients treated with surgery from 90 hospitals were included in this study. The primary outcome was postoperative in-hospital mortality. The patients were randomly divided into two groups, with a ratio of 7:3. The majority of patients, assigned to the training cohort, were used to develop the AI models. The remaining patients, assigned to the validation cohort, were used to validate the models. Various machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), naïve bayesian (NB), neural network (NN), eXGBoosting machine (eXGBM), and random forest (RF), were employed for model development. A comprehensive scoring system, incorporating 10 evaluation metrics, was developed to assess the prediction performance, with higher scores indicating superior predictive capability. Based on the best machine learning-based model, an AI application was developed on the Internet. In addition, a comparative testing of prediction performance between doctors and the AI application. FINDINGS The eXGBM model exhibited the best prediction performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.908 (95% CI: 0.881-0.932), as well as the highest accuracy (0.820), precision (0.817), specificity (0.814), and F1 score (0.822), and the lowest Brier score (0.120) and log loss (0.374). Additionally, the model showed favorable calibration, with a slope of 0.999 and an intercept of 0.028. According to the scoring system incorporating 10 evaluation metrics, the eXGBM model achieved the highest score (56), followed by the RF model (48) and NN model (41). The LR, DT, and NB models had total scores of 27, 30, and 13, respectively. The AI application has been deployed online at https://in-hospitaldeathinhipfracture-l9vhqo3l55fy8dkdvuskvu.streamlit.app/ , based on the eXGBM model. The comparative testing revealed that the AI application's predictive capabilities significantly outperformed those of the doctors in terms of AUC values (0.908 vs. 0.682, P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS The eXGBM model demonstrates promising predictive performance in assessing the risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality among geriatric hip fracture patients. The developed AI model serves as a valuable tool to enhance clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingxing Lei
- Department of Orthopedics, National Clinical Research Center for Orthopedics, Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation, PLA General Hospital
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
- Department of Orthopedics, Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Hainan, People's Republic of China
| | - Taojin Feng
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
| | - Ming Chen
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
| | - Junmin Shen
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
| | - Jiang Liu
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
| | - Feifan Chang
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
| | - Junyu Chen
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
| | - Xinyu Sun
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
- Chinese PLA Medical School
| | - Zhi Mao
- Department of Emergency, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing
| | - Yi Li
- Department of Orthopedics, National Clinical Research Center for Orthopedics, Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation, PLA General Hospital
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
| | - Pengbin Yin
- Department of Orthopedics, National Clinical Research Center for Orthopedics, Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation, PLA General Hospital
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
| | - Peifu Tang
- Department of Orthopedics, National Clinical Research Center for Orthopedics, Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation, PLA General Hospital
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
| | - Licheng Zhang
- Department of Orthopedics, National Clinical Research Center for Orthopedics, Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation, PLA General Hospital
- Department of Orthopedics, Chinese PLA General Hospital
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Silva G, Ashford R. Using Artificial Intelligence to predict outcomes of operatively managed neck of femur fractures. Br J Hosp Med (Lond) 2024; 85:1-12. [PMID: 38941973 DOI: 10.12968/hmed.2024.0034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/30/2024]
Abstract
Aims/Background Patients with neck of femur fractures present a tremendous public health problem that leads to a high incidence of death and dysfunction. An essential factor is the postoperative length of stay, which heavily impacts hospital costs and the quality of care. As an extension of traditional statistical methods, machine learning (ML) provides the possibility of accurately predicting the length of hospital stay. This review assesses how machine learning can effectively use healthcare data to predict the outcomes of patients with operatively managed neck of femurs. Methods A narrative literature review on the use of Artificial Intelligence to predict outcomes in the neck of femurs was undertaken to understand the field and critical considerations of its application. The papers and any relevant references were scrutinised using the specific inclusion and exclusion criteria to produce papers that were used in the analysis. Results Thirteen papers were used in the analysis. The critical themes recognised the different models, the 'backbox' conundrum, predictor identification, validation methodology and the need to improve efficiency and quality of care. Through reviewing the themes in this paper, current issues, and potential avenues of advancing the field are explored. Conclusions This review has demonstrated that the use of machine learning in Orthopaedic pathways is in its infancy. Further work is needed to leverage this technology effectively to improve outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Geeth Silva
- Trauma and Orthopaedics, University Hospitals Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Robert Ashford
- Trauma and Orthopaedics, University Hospitals Leicester, Leicester, UK
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Walsh ME, Kristensen PK, Hjelholt TJ, Hurson C, Walsh C, Ferris H, Crozier-Shaw G, Keohane D, Geary E, O'Halloran A, Merriman NA, Blake C. Systematic review of multivariable prognostic models for outcomes at least 30 days after hip fracture finds 18 mortality models but no nonmortality models warranting validation. J Clin Epidemiol 2024; 173:111439. [PMID: 38925343 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2024.111439] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2024] [Revised: 05/29/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Prognostic models have the potential to aid clinical decision-making after hip fracture. This systematic review aimed to identify, critically appraise, and summarize multivariable prediction models for mortality or other long-term recovery outcomes occurring at least 30 days after hip fracture. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and CINAHL databases were searched up to May 2023. Studies were included that aimed to develop multivariable models to make predictions for individuals at least 30 days after hip fracture. Risk of bias (ROB) was dual-assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool. Study and model details were extracted and summarized. RESULTS From 5571 records, 80 eligible studies were identified. They predicted mortality in n = 55 studies/81 models and nonmortality outcomes (mobility, function, residence, medical, and surgical complications) in n = 30 studies/45 models. Most (n = 46; 58%) studies were published since 2020. A quarter of studies (n = 19; 24%) reported using 'machine-learning methods', while the remainder used logistic regression (n = 54; 68%) and other statistical methods (n = 11; 14%) to build models. Overall, 15 studies (19%) presented 18 low ROB models, all predicting mortality. Common concerns were sample size, missing data handling, inadequate internal validation, and calibration assessment. Many studies with nonmortality outcomes (n = 11; 37%) had clear data complexities that were not correctly modeled. CONCLUSION This review has comprehensively summarized and appraised multivariable prediction models for long-term outcomes after hip fracture. Only 15 studies of 55 predicting mortality were rated as low ROB, warranting further development of their models. All studies predicting nonmortality outcomes were high or unclear ROB. Careful consideration is required for both the methods used and justification for developing further nonmortality prediction models for this clinical population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary E Walsh
- School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 C7X2, Ireland.
| | - Pia Kjær Kristensen
- The Department of Clinical Medicine, Orthopaedic, Aarhus University, DK-8200, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Thomas J Hjelholt
- Department of Geriatrics, Aarhus University Hospital, DK-8200, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Conor Hurson
- Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, St Vincent's University Hospital, Dublin D04 T6F4, Ireland
| | - Cathal Walsh
- School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Helena Ferris
- Department of Public Health, Health Service Executive - South West, St. Finbarr's Hospital, Cork, T12 XH60, Ireland
| | - Geoff Crozier-Shaw
- Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, Mater Misercordiae University Hospital, Eccles Street, Dublin, Ireland
| | - David Keohane
- Department of Orthopaedics, St. James' Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Ellen Geary
- Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, St Vincent's University Hospital, Dublin D04 T6F4, Ireland
| | | | - Niamh A Merriman
- School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 C7X2, Ireland
| | - Catherine Blake
- School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 C7X2, Ireland
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Mosfeldt M, Jørgensen HL, Lauritzen JB, Jansson KÅ. Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Mortality After Hip Fracture with Machine Learning Techniques. Calcif Tissue Int 2024; 114:568-582. [PMID: 38625579 PMCID: PMC11090964 DOI: 10.1007/s00223-024-01208-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2023] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/17/2024]
Abstract
In order to estimate the likelihood of 1, 3, 6 and 12 month mortality in patients with hip fractures, we applied a variety of machine learning methods using readily available, preoperative data. We used prospectively collected data from a single university hospital in Copenhagen, Denmark for consecutive patients with hip fractures, aged 60 years and older, treated between September 2008 to September 2010 (n = 1186). Preoperative biochemical and anamnestic data were used as predictors and outcome was survival at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the fracture. After feature selection for each timepoint a stratified split was done (70/30) before training and validating Random Forest models, extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Generalized Linear Models. We evaluated and compared each model using receiver operator characteristic (ROC), calibration slope and intercept, Spiegelhalter's z- test and Decision Curve Analysis. Using combinations of between 10 and 13 anamnestic and biochemical parameters we were able to successfully estimate the likelihood of mortality with an area under the curve on ROC curves of 0.79, 0.80, 0.79 and 0.81 for 1, 3, 6 and 12 month, respectively. The XGB was the overall best calibrated and most promising model. The XGB model most successfully estimated the likelihood of mortality postoperatively. An easy-to-use model could be helpful in perioperative decisions concerning level of care, focused research and information to patients. External validation is necessary before widespread use and is currently underway, an online tool has been developed for educational/experimental purposes ( https://hipfx.shinyapps.io/hipfx/ ).
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathias Mosfeldt
- Department of Orthopaedics, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Henrik Løvendahl Jørgensen
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Hvidovre Hospital, Hvidovre, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jes Bruun Lauritzen
- Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Bispebjerg Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Karl-Åke Jansson
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Orthopaedics, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, Sweden
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Liu H, Xing F, Jiang J, Chen Z, Xiang Z, Duan X. Random forest predictive modeling of prolonged hospital length of stay in elderly hip fracture patients. Front Med (Lausanne) 2024; 11:1362153. [PMID: 38828234 PMCID: PMC11140010 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1362153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/01/2024] [Indexed: 06/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Background In elderly individuals suffering from hip fractures, a prolonged hospital length of stay (PLOS) not only heightens the probability of patient complications but also amplifies mortality risks. Yet, most elderly hip fracture patients present compromised baseline health conditions. Additionally, PLOS leads to increased expenses for patient treatment and care, while also diminishing hospital turnover rates. This, in turn, jeopardizes the prompt allocation of beds for urgent cases. Methods A retrospective study was carried out from October 2021 to November 2023 on 360 elderly hip fracture patients who underwent surgical treatment at West China Hospital. The 75th percentile of the total patient cohort's hospital stay duration, which was 12 days, was used to define prolonged hospital length of stay (PLOS). The cohort was divided into training and testing datasets with a 70:30 split. A predictive model was developed using the random forest algorithm, and its performance was validated and compared with the Lasso regression model. Results Out of 360 patients, 103 (28.61%) experienced PLOS. A Random Forest classification model was developed using the training dataset, identifying 10 essential variables. The Random Forest model achieved perfect performance in the training set, with an area under the curve (AUC), balanced accuracy, Kappa value, and F1 score of 1.000. In the testing set, the model's performance was assessed with an AUC of 0.846, balanced accuracy of 0.7294, Kappa value of 0.4325, and F1 score of 0.6061. Conclusion This study aims to develop a prognostic model for predicting delayed discharge in elderly patients with hip fractures, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting PLOS in this population. By utilizing machine learning models, clinicians can optimize the allocation of medical resources and devise effective rehabilitation strategies for geriatric hip fracture patients. Additionally, this method can potentially improve hospital bed turnover rates, providing latent benefits for the healthcare system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Liu
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Fei Xing
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jiabao Jiang
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Zhao Chen
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Zhou Xiang
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Orthopedics Surgery, West China Sanya Hospital, Sichuan University, Sanya, China
| | - Xin Duan
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, The Fifth People’s Hospital of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
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Zhou YF, Wang J, Wang XL, Song SS, Bai Y, Li JL, Luo JY, Jin QQ, Cai WC, Yuan KM, Li J. A prediction model of elderly hip fracture mortality including preoperative red cell distribution width constructed based on the random survival forest (RSF) and Cox risk ratio regression. Osteoporos Int 2024; 35:613-623. [PMID: 38062161 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-023-06988-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/22/2024]
Abstract
An independent correlation between pre-RDW and 1-year mortality after surgery in elderly hip fracture can be used to predict mortality in elderly hip fracture patients and has predictive significance in anemia patients. With further research, a treatment algorithm can be developed to potentially identify patients at high risk of preoperative mortality. INTRODUCTION Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is an independent predictor of various disease states in elderly individuals, but its association with the prognosis of elderly hip fracture patients is controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of RDW in such patients, construct a prediction model containing RDW using random survival forest (RSF) and Cox regression analysis, and compare RDW in patients with and without anemia. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed the data of elderly patients who underwent hip fracture surgery, selected the best variables using RSF, stratified the independent variables by Cox regression analysis, constructed a 1-year mortality prediction model of elderly hip fracture with RDW, and conducted internal validation and external validation. RESULTS Two thousand one hundred six patients were included in this study. The RSF algorithm selects 12 important influencing factors, and Cox regression analysis showed that eight variables including preoperative RDW (pre-RDW) were independent risk factors for death within 1-year after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients. Stratified analysis showed that pre-RDW was still independently associated with 1-year mortality in the non-anemia group and not in the anemia group. The nomogram prediction model had high differentiation and fit, and the prediction model constructed by the total cohort of patients was also used for validation of patients in the anemia patients and obtained good clinical benefits. CONCLUSION An independent correlation between pre-RDW and 1-year mortality after surgery in elderly hip fracture can be used to predict mortality in elderly hip fracture patients and has predictive significance in anemia patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying-Feng Zhou
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jiao Wang
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xin-Lin Wang
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Shu-Shu Song
- Department of Anesthesiology, Wenzhou Central Hospital, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yue Bai
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jian-Lin Li
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jing-Yu Luo
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Qi-Qi Jin
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Wei-Cha Cai
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Kai-Ming Yuan
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China.
| | - Jun Li
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Key Laboratory of Pediatric Anesthesiology, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, China.
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Wang Z, Zhang L, Zeng X, Nie P, Wang M, Xiong Y, Xu Y. The Nomogram Model and Factors for the Postoperative Mortality of Elderly Patients with Femoral Neck Fracture Undergoing Artificial Hip Arthroplasty: A Single-Institution 6-Year Experience. Orthop Surg 2024; 16:391-400. [PMID: 38151885 PMCID: PMC10834201 DOI: 10.1111/os.13944] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Revised: 10/12/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 12/29/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Artificial hip arthroplasty (AHA) is widely accepted in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures, but it is associated with high risk of death and various postoperative complications due to old age and accompanying chronic diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the risk factors for death in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures after AHA and to establish a nomogram risk prediction model, which is expected to reveal high-risk patients and improve the postoperative quality of life and survival rate of patients. METHODS Elderly patients who underwent AHA for femoral neck fractures in our hospital from September 2014 to May 2021were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were divided into a survival group and a death group according to their clinical outcomes. The following clinical data were recorded for the patients in the two groups: sex, age, underlying diseases, smoking and drinking history, preoperative nutritional risk score (NRS) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, as well as relevant indicators about the operation. These data were subject to univariate analysis and then logistic analysis to determine the risk factors of death. Subsequently, a nomogram risk prediction model was established and further validated with the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Finally, the effects of predictive risk factors were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. RESULTS Follow-up was completed by 260 patients, including 206 patients in the survival group and 54 patients in the death group; the overall death rate was 20.77%, and the follow-up time, age, postoperative 1, 3 and 5-year death rates were 3.47 ± 1.93 years, 75.32 ± 9.12 years, 5.77%, 12.51%, and 25.61%, respectively. The top three causes of death in 54 patients were respiratory disease, cerebrocardiovascular disease, and digestive disease, respectively. The logistic analysis indicated that elderly patients with femoral neck fractures, the risk factors for death after AHA were age ≥ 80 years, preoperative NRS ≥ 4, HB ≤ 90 g/L, CR ≥ 110 umol/L, and ASA score ≥ 3, as well as postoperative albumin ≤ 35 g/L, the nomogram was established, and then its predictive performance was successfully validated using the ROC curve (AUC = 0.814, 95% confidence interval = 0.749-0.879) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.840). Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis revealed that the abovementioned six indicators were correlated with the post-AHA survival time of elderly patients with femoral neck fractures (pLog Rank < 0.05). CONCLUSION Old age, preoperatively high NRS and ASA score, anemia, poor renal function, and postoperative hypoproteinemia are the major risk factors for death in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures after AHA; they are also associated with postoperative survival. Early identification and effective interventions for optimization of modifiable risk factors are recommended to improve the postoperative quality of life and survival rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zewen Wang
- Department of Orthopaedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Lixiang Zhang
- Department of Orthopaedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Xiaoyan Zeng
- Department of General Surgery, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Piming Nie
- Department of Orthopaedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Min Wang
- Department of Orthopaedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yan Xiong
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yuan Xu
- Department of Orthopaedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
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Chen X, Pan J, Li Y, Tang R. Application of machine learning model in predicting the likelihood of blood transfusion after hip fracture surgery. Aging Clin Exp Res 2023; 35:2643-2656. [PMID: 37733228 DOI: 10.1007/s40520-023-02550-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/24/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Anemia is one of the common adverse reactions after hip fracture surgery. The traditional method to solve anemia is allogeneic transfusion. However, the transfusion may lead to some complications such as septicemia and fever. So far, few studies have reported roles of machine learning in predicting whether blood transfusion is needed or not after hip fracture surgery. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop machine learning models to predict the likelihood of postoperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. METHODS This study enrolled 1355 patients who underwent hip fracture surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from January 2016 to December 2021. Among all patients, 210 cases received postoperative blood transfusion. All patients were randomly divided into a training group and a testing group at a ratio of 7:3. In the training group, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine independent risk factors for the postoperative transfusion. Then, based on these independent risk factors, tenfold cross-validation method was utilized to develop five machine learning models, including logistic, multilayer perceptron (MLP), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under ROC curve (AUC), and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) were generated to evaluate the performance of the models. Calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to test the performance, stability, and clinical applicability of the models. The models were validated using the testing group; and the ROC curve, MCC, calibration plot, and DCA curves were also generated to validate the performance, stability, and clinical applicability of the models. To further verify the robustness of the model, we randomly grabbed 70% of the samples in the testing set, performed 1000 iterations, and calculated the AUC and confidence interval of the five models. Finally, we used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to explain these models. RESULTS Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that there were 8 independent risk factors, including age, blood transfusion history, albumin (ALB), globulin (GLO), total bilirubin (TBIL), indirect bilirubin (IBIL), hemoglobin (HB), and blood loss > 200 ml. We finally selected five independent risk factors including HB, GLO, age, IBIL, and blood loss > 200 ml. Based on these five independent risk factors, we generated six characteristic variables, namely HB, HB × HB, HB × blood loss, GLO × HB, age, age × IBIL, and established five machine learning models using a tenfold cross-validation method. In the training group, the AUC values of logistic, RF, MLP, SVM, and XGB were 0.9320, 0.8911, 0.9327, 0.9225, and 0.8825, respectively, and the average AUC was 0.9122 ± 0.0212. The MCC values were 0.65, 0.77, 0.65, 0.66, and 0.68, respectively, and the calibration plot and DCA performed well. In the testing group the AUC values of logistic, RF, MLP, SVM, and XGB were 0.8483, 0.7978, 0.8576, 0.8598, and 0.8216, respectively. The average AUC was 0.8370 ± 0.0238, and the MCC values were 0.41, 0.35, 0.40, 0.41, and 0.41, respectively. The calibration plot and DCA in the testing group also showed good performance. The AUC values and confidence intervals of the 1000-iteration model were: logistic (AUC, min confidence interval [CI]-max confidence interval [CI] 0.848, 0.804-0.903), RF (AUC, minCI-maxCI 0.797, 0.734-0.857), MLP (AUC, minCI-maxCI 0.858, 0.812-0.902), SVM (AUC, minCI-maxCI 0.859, 0.819-0.910), and XGB (AUC, minCI-maxCI 0.821, 0.764-0.894). The model performed well. Finally, according to SHAP, among all five models, HB played the most important role in model prediction and interpretation. CONCLUSION The five models we developed all performed well in predicting the likelihood of blood transfusion after hip fracture surgery. Therefore, we believed that the prediction model based on machine learning had great application prospects in clinical practice, which could help clinicians better predict the risk of blood transfusion after hip fracture surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Chen
- Department of Orthopaedics, Suzhou Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Suzhou, 234000, Anhui, China
| | - Junpeng Pan
- Department of Spinal Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, 266000, Shandong, China
| | - Yi Li
- Department of Orthopaedics, Suzhou Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Suzhou, 234000, Anhui, China
| | - Ruixin Tang
- Department of Orthopaedics, Suzhou Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Suzhou, 234000, Anhui, China.
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9
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de Souza RMC, Frassei RD, da Silva LDCM, Rahal MA, Silva JDS, Kojima KE. Clinical data or scoring system for predicting mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture: A prospective study. Injury 2023; 54 Suppl 6:110844. [PMID: 37263869 DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2023.110844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2023] [Revised: 05/20/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Hip fracture in elderly individuals is frequent and is related to a high rate of mortality. Finding the best predictor of death will help to develop better patient care. Aim - To analyze the reliability of the clinical data and assessment scores to predict mortality in acute hip fracture in elderly patients. PATIENT AND METHODS Prospective data were collected from all patients > 65 years with acute hip fracture from May to October 2020. The clinical data collected were age, sex, comorbidities, medication, type of fracture and presence of delirium. The assessment scores were ASA, Lee, ACP and Charlson. RESULTS The statistically significant results were age > 80 years (OR 1.121 IC95% [1.028-1.221] p = 0.0101) and number of medications (OR5.991 95% CI [2.422-14.823] p <0.001). Three scores showed a correlation with mortality: ASA score (p = 0.017), Lee score (p = 0.024) and ACP score (p = 0.013). The Charlson Comorbidity Index did not correlate with mortality (p = 0.172). CONCLUSION To stratify the risk of death, both clinical data and scores should be used. The best clinical indicators are age and number of medications, and the scores are ASA, Lee and ACP.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Renan Dias Frassei
- Instituto de Ortopedia e Traumatologia, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Sao Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Luiza de Campos Moreira da Silva
- Instituto de Ortopedia e Traumatologia, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Sao Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Miguel Antonio Rahal
- Instituto de Ortopedia e Traumatologia, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Sao Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Jorge Dos Santos Silva
- Instituto de Ortopedia e Traumatologia, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Sao Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Kodi Edson Kojima
- Instituto de Ortopedia e Traumatologia, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Sao Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
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Dijkstra H, Oosterhoff JHF, van de Kuit A, IJpma FFA, Schwab JH, Poolman RW, Sprague S, Bzovsky S, Bhandari M, Swiontkowski M, Schemitsch EH, Doornberg JN, Hendrickx LAM. Development of machine-learning algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in the elderly with femoral neck fractures based on the HEALTH and FAITH trials. Bone Jt Open 2023; 4:168-181. [PMID: 37051847 PMCID: PMC10032237 DOI: 10.1302/2633-1462.43.bjo-2022-0162.r1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/14/2023] Open
Abstract
To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hidde Dijkstra
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Trauma Surgery, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, University Medical Center of Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jacobien H F Oosterhoff
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Engineering Systems and Services, Faculty Technology Policy Management, Delft University of Technology, Delt, Netherlands
| | - Anouk van de Kuit
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Trauma Surgery, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Frank F A IJpma
- Department of Trauma Surgery, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Joseph H Schwab
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Rudolf W Poolman
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Onze Lieve Vrouw Gasthuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sheila Sprague
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Department of Surgery, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
| | - Sofia Bzovsky
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Department of Surgery, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
| | - Mohit Bhandari
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Department of Surgery, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
| | - Marc Swiontkowski
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | | | - Job N Doornberg
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Laurent A M Hendrickx
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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11
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Lex JR, Di Michele J, Koucheki R, Pincus D, Whyne C, Ravi B. Artificial Intelligence for Hip Fracture Detection and Outcome Prediction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e233391. [PMID: 36930153 PMCID: PMC10024206 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.3391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/18/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Artificial intelligence (AI) enables powerful models for establishment of clinical diagnostic and prognostic tools for hip fractures; however the performance and potential impact of these newly developed algorithms are currently unknown. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the performance of AI algorithms designed to diagnose hip fractures on radiographs and predict postoperative clinical outcomes following hip fracture surgery relative to current practices. DATA SOURCES A systematic review of the literature was performed using the MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases for all articles published from database inception to January 23, 2023. A manual reference search of included articles was also undertaken to identify any additional relevant articles. STUDY SELECTION Studies developing machine learning (ML) models for the diagnosis of hip fractures from hip or pelvic radiographs or to predict any postoperative patient outcome following hip fracture surgery were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses and was registered with PROSPERO. Eligible full-text articles were evaluated and relevant data extracted independently using a template data extraction form. For studies that predicted postoperative outcomes, the performance of traditional predictive statistical models, either multivariable logistic or linear regression, was recorded and compared with the performance of the best ML model on the same out-of-sample data set. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Diagnostic accuracy of AI models was compared with the diagnostic accuracy of expert clinicians using odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. Areas under the curve for postoperative outcome prediction between traditional statistical models (multivariable linear or logistic regression) and ML models were compared. RESULTS Of 39 studies that met all criteria and were included in this analysis, 18 (46.2%) used AI models to diagnose hip fractures on plain radiographs and 21 (53.8%) used AI models to predict patient outcomes following hip fracture surgery. A total of 39 598 plain radiographs and 714 939 hip fractures were used for training, validating, and testing ML models specific to diagnosis and postoperative outcome prediction, respectively. Mortality and length of hospital stay were the most predicted outcomes. On pooled data analysis, compared with clinicians, the OR for diagnostic error of ML models was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.48-1.31; P = .36; I2 = 60%) for hip fracture radiographs. For the ML models, the mean (SD) sensitivity was 89.3% (8.5%), specificity was 87.5% (9.9%), and F1 score was 0.90 (0.06). The mean area under the curve for mortality prediction was 0.84 with ML models compared with 0.79 for alternative controls (P = .09). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that the potential applications of AI to aid with diagnosis from hip radiographs are promising. The performance of AI in diagnosing hip fractures was comparable with that of expert radiologists and surgeons. However, current implementations of AI for outcome prediction do not seem to provide substantial benefit over traditional multivariable predictive statistics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johnathan R. Lex
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Biomedical Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Orthopaedics Biomechanics Laboratory, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Joseph Di Michele
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Robert Koucheki
- Institute of Biomedical Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Daniel Pincus
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Cari Whyne
- Orthopaedics Biomechanics Laboratory, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Bheeshma Ravi
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Lee W, Schwartz N, Bansal A, Khor S, Hammarlund N, Basu A, Devine B. A Scoping Review of the Use of Machine Learning in Health Economics and Outcomes Research: Part 2-Data From Nonwearables. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2022; 25:2053-2061. [PMID: 35989154 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2022.07.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Revised: 06/10/2022] [Accepted: 07/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Despite the increasing interest in applying machine learning (ML) methods in health economics and outcomes research (HEOR), stakeholders face uncertainties in when and how ML can be used. We reviewed the recent applications of ML in HEOR. METHODS We searched PubMed for studies published between January 2020 and March 2021 and randomly chose 20% of the identified studies for the sake of manageability. Studies that were in HEOR and applied an ML technique were included. Studies related to wearable devices were excluded. We abstracted information on the ML applications, data types, and ML methods and analyzed it using descriptive statistics. RESULTS We retrieved 805 articles, of which 161 (20%) were randomly chosen. Ninety-two of the random sample met the eligibility criteria. We found that ML was primarily used for predicting future events (86%) rather than current events (14%). The most common response variables were clinical events or disease incidence (42%) and treatment outcomes (22%). ML was less used to predict economic outcomes such as health resource utilization (16%) or costs (3%). Although electronic medical records (35%) were frequently used for model development, claims data were used less frequently (9%). Tree-based methods (eg, random forests and boosting) were the most commonly used ML methods (31%). CONCLUSIONS The use of ML techniques in HEOR is growing rapidly, but there remain opportunities to apply them to predict economic outcomes, especially using claims databases, which could inform the development of cost-effectiveness models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Woojung Lee
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy, and Economics (CHOICE) Institute, School of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Naomi Schwartz
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy, and Economics (CHOICE) Institute, School of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Aasthaa Bansal
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy, and Economics (CHOICE) Institute, School of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sara Khor
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy, and Economics (CHOICE) Institute, School of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Noah Hammarlund
- Department of Health Services Research, Management & Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Anirban Basu
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy, and Economics (CHOICE) Institute, School of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Beth Devine
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy, and Economics (CHOICE) Institute, School of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Fisher A, Srikusalanukul W, Fisher L, Smith PN. Comparison of Prognostic Value of 10 Biochemical Indices at Admission for Prediction Postoperative Myocardial Injury and Hospital Mortality in Patients with Osteoporotic Hip Fracture. J Clin Med 2022; 11:jcm11226784. [PMID: 36431261 PMCID: PMC9696473 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11226784] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2022] [Revised: 11/09/2022] [Accepted: 11/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim: To evaluate the prognostic impact at admission of 10 biochemical indices for prediction postoperative myocardial injury (PMI) and/or hospital death in hip fracture (HF) patients. Methods: In 1273 consecutive patients with HF (mean age 82.9 ± 8.7 years, 73.5% women), clinical and laboratory parameters were collected prospectively, and outcomes were recorded. Multiple logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analyses (the area under the curve, AUC) were preformed, the number needed to predict (NNP) outcome was calculated. Results: Age ≥ 80 years and IHD were the most prominent clinical factors associated with both PMI (with cardiac troponin I rise) and in-hospital death. PMI occurred in 555 (43.6%) patients and contributed to 80.3% (49/61) of all deaths (mortality rate 8.8% vs. 1.9% in non-PMI patients). The most accurate biochemical predictive markers were parathyroid hormone > 6.8 pmol/L, urea > 7.5 mmol/L, 25(OH)vitamin D < 25 nmol/L, albumin < 33 g/L, and ratios gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) to alanine aminotransferase > 2.5, urea/albumin ≥ 2.0 and GGT/albumin ≥ 7.0; the AUC for developing PMI ranged between 0.782 and 0.742 (NNP: 1.84−2.13), the AUC for fatal outcome ranged from 0.803 to 0.722, (NNP: 3.77−9.52). Conclusions: In HF patients, easily accessible biochemical indices at admission substantially improve prediction of hospital outcomes, especially in the aged >80 years with IHD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Fisher
- Departments of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra 2605, Australia
- Departments of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra 2605, Australia
- Medical School, Australian National University, Canberra 2605, Australia
- Correspondence:
| | - Wichat Srikusalanukul
- Departments of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra 2605, Australia
| | - Leon Fisher
- Department of Gastroenterology, Frankston Hospital, Peninsula Health, Melbourne 3199, Australia
| | - Paul N. Smith
- Departments of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra 2605, Australia
- Medical School, Australian National University, Canberra 2605, Australia
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Fransvea P, Fransvea G, Liuzzi P, Sganga G, Mannini A, Costa G. Study and validation of an explainable machine learning-based mortality prediction following emergency surgery in the elderly: A prospective observational study. Int J Surg 2022; 107:106954. [PMID: 36229017 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2022.106954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Revised: 09/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/03/2022] [Indexed: 10/31/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The heterogeneity of procedures and the variety of comorbidities of the patients undergoing surgery in an emergency setting makes perioperative risk stratification, planning, and risk mitigation crucial. In this optic, Machine Learning has the capability of deriving data-driven predictions based on multivariate interactions of thousands of instances. Our aim was to cross-validate and test interpretable models for the prediction of post-operative mortality after any surgery in an emergency setting on elderly patients. METHODS This study is a secondary analysis derived from the FRAILESEL study, a multi-center (N = 29 emergency care units), nationwide, observational prospective study with data collected between 06-2017 and 06-2018 investigating perioperative outcomes of elderly patients (age≥65 years) undergoing emergency surgery. Demographic and clinical data, medical and surgical history, preoperative risk factors, frailty, biochemical blood examination, vital parameters, and operative details were collected and the primary outcome was set to the 30-day mortality. RESULTS Of the 2570 included patients (50.66% males, median age 77 [IQR = 13] years) 238 (9.26%) were in the non-survivors group. The best performing solution (MultiLayer Perceptron) resulted in a test accuracy of 94.9% (sensitivity = 92.0%, specificity = 95.2%). Model explanations showed how non-chronic cardiac-related comorbidities reduced activities of daily living, low consciousness levels, high creatinine and low saturation increase the risk of death following surgery. CONCLUSIONS In this prospective observational study, a robustly cross-validated model resulted in better predictive performance than existing tools and scores in literature. By using only preoperative features and by deriving patient-specific explanations, the model provides crucial information during shared decision-making processes required for risk mitigation procedures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pietro Fransvea
- Emergency Surgery and Trauma, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Largo A. Gemelli 8, Rome, Italy The BioRobotics Institute, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Viale Rinaldo Piaggio 34, Pontedera, PI, Italy IRCCS Fondazione Don Carlo Gnocchi ONLUS, Via di Scandicci 269, Firenze, FI, Italy Surgery Center, Colorectal Surgery Unit - Fondazione Policlinico Campus Bio-Medico, University Hospital of University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome, Rome, Italy
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Kitcharanant N, Chotiyarnwong P, Tanphiriyakun T, Vanitcharoenkul E, Mahaisavariya C, Boonyaprapa W, Unnanuntana A. Development and internal validation of a machine-learning-developed model for predicting 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture. BMC Geriatr 2022; 22:451. [PMID: 35610589 PMCID: PMC9131628 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-022-03152-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Fragility hip fracture increases morbidity and mortality in older adult patients, especially within the first year. Identification of patients at high risk of death facilitates modification of associated perioperative factors that can reduce mortality. Various machine learning algorithms have been developed and are widely used in healthcare research, particularly for mortality prediction. This study aimed to develop and internally validate 7 machine learning models to predict 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture. Methods This retrospective study included patients with fragility hip fractures from a single center (Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand) from July 2016 to October 2018. A total of 492 patients were enrolled. They were randomly categorized into a training group (344 cases, 70%) or a testing group (148 cases, 30%). Various machine learning techniques were used: the Gradient Boosting Classifier (GB), Random Forests Classifier (RF), Artificial Neural Network Classifier (ANN), Logistic Regression Classifier (LR), Naive Bayes Classifier (NB), Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors Classifier (KNN). All models were internally validated by evaluating their performance and the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results For the testing dataset, the accuracies were GB model = 0.93, RF model = 0.95, ANN model = 0.94, LR model = 0.91, NB model = 0.89, SVM model = 0.90, and KNN model = 0.90. All models achieved high AUCs that ranged between 0.81 and 0.99. The RF model also provided a negative predictive value of 0.96, a positive predictive value of 0.93, a specificity of 0.99, and a sensitivity of 0.68. Conclusions Our machine learning approach facilitated the successful development of an accurate model to predict 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture. Several machine learning algorithms (eg, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) had the potential to provide high predictive performance based on the clinical parameters of each patient. The web application is available at www.hipprediction.com. External validation in a larger group of patients or in different hospital settings is warranted to evaluate the clinical utility of this tool. Trial registration Thai Clinical Trials Registry (22 February 2021; reg. no. TCTR20210222003). Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03152-x.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nitchanant Kitcharanant
- Department of Orthopaedics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.,Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, 2 Wanglang Road, Bangkoknoi, 10700, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Pojchong Chotiyarnwong
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, 2 Wanglang Road, Bangkoknoi, 10700, Bangkok, Thailand.
| | - Thiraphat Tanphiriyakun
- Department of Orthopaedics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.,Biomedical Informatics Center, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Ekasame Vanitcharoenkul
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, 2 Wanglang Road, Bangkoknoi, 10700, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Chantas Mahaisavariya
- Golden Jubilee Medical Center, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Wichian Boonyaprapa
- Siriraj Information Technology Department, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Aasis Unnanuntana
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, 2 Wanglang Road, Bangkoknoi, 10700, Bangkok, Thailand
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16
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Pan L, Ning T, Wu H, Liu H, Wang H, Li X, Cao Y. Prognostic nomogram for risk of mortality after hip fracture surgery in geriatrics. Injury 2022; 53:1484-1489. [PMID: 35078620 DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2022.01.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/16/2022] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Hip fracture is a significant public health problem, with associated high morbidity and mortality. Orthopedic surgeons are concerned to improve prognosis and stratify mortality risk after hip fracture surgery. This study established a nomogram that combines the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) with specific laboratory parameters to predict mortality risk after hip fracture surgery in geriatrics. METHODS The records of consecutive patients who underwent hip fracture surgery from January 2015 through May 2020 at one medical center were reviewed for perioperative factors and mortality. Patients with age ≥ 70 years who were diagnosed with intertrochanteric or femoral neck fractures were included. Patients who were diagnosed with pathological fracture, received only conservative treatment or lost to follow-up were excluded. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify risk factors. A nomogram was established with R software and evaluated using concordance (C)-index, area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS In total, 454 patients were included with a mean age of 81.6 years. The mean follow-up and one-year mortality rate were 37.2 months and 10.4%, respectively. Five identified risk variables for mortality after hip fracture surgery in geriatrics comprised age (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.08; P = 0.003), CCI (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.24-1.54; P = 0.000), albumin (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.31-2.43; P = 0.000), sodium (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.18-2.15; P = 0.002) and hemoglobin (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07-2.00; P = 0.02). A nomogram was proposed and evaluated, showing a C-index of 0.76 ± 0.02. The AUCs for 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year mortality predictions were 0.83, 0.79, and 0.77, respectively. The calibration curve and DCA showed good discrimination and clinical usefulness. CONCLUSION This novel nomogram for stratifying the mortality risk after hip fracture surgery in geriatrics incorporated age, CCI, serum albumin, sodium, and hemoglobin. Internal validation indicated that the model has good accuracy and usefulness. This nomogram had improved convenience and precision compared with other models. External validation is warranted to confirm its performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liping Pan
- Department of Orthopedics, Peking University First Hospital, No 8 Xishiku Street, XiCheng, Beijing 100034, PR China
| | - Taiguo Ning
- Department of Orthopedics, Peking University First Hospital, No 8 Xishiku Street, XiCheng, Beijing 100034, PR China
| | - Hao Wu
- Department of Orthopedics, Peking University First Hospital, No 8 Xishiku Street, XiCheng, Beijing 100034, PR China
| | - Heng Liu
- Department of Orthopedics, Peking University First Hospital, No 8 Xishiku Street, XiCheng, Beijing 100034, PR China
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Orthopedics, Peking University First Hospital, No 8 Xishiku Street, XiCheng, Beijing 100034, PR China
| | - Xueying Li
- Department of Medical Statistics, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing 100034, PR China
| | - Yongping Cao
- Department of Orthopedics, Peking University First Hospital, No 8 Xishiku Street, XiCheng, Beijing 100034, PR China.
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Sayed-Noor A, Al-Amiry B, Alwan A, Knutsson B, Barenius B. The Association of On-Admission Blood Hemoglobin, C-Reactive Protein, and Serum Creatinine With 2-Year Mortality of Patients With Femoral Neck Fractures. Geriatr Orthop Surg Rehabil 2021; 12:21514593211037758. [PMID: 34422440 PMCID: PMC8377304 DOI: 10.1177/21514593211037758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction The mortality of femoral neck fracture (FNF) is high and every effort should be made to identify and manage any possible risk factors. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether on-admission hemoglobin (Hb) level, C-reactive protein (CRP), and serum creatinine were associated with 2-year mortality after FNF. Patients and Methods In this retrospective observational cohort study, we considered for inclusion all displaced FNF patients 65 years and above treated with hemi-arthroplasty between February 2011 and May 2015. We documented the age, sex, cognitive status, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification. The Hb level, CRP, and serum creatinine were measured. The medical records were followed up for 2 years. We fitted different crude and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to examine whether Hb level <100 g/L, CRP >20 mg/L, and serum creatinine >100 μmol/L were associated with the 2-year mortality, adjusted for age, sex, and ASA class. Results A total of 290 patients [208 females (72%), mean age 84 years] were included in the study. More than 50% of patients had impaired cognition and ASA class 3–4. Of the 290 patients, 38.3% (n = 111) had died within 2 years after surgery. Mortality among males was 46.3% (n = 38) while mortality among females was 35,1% (n = 73), p = 0.07. We found that on-admission Hb level <100 g/L was associated with 2-year mortality (HR = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.3–8.3, p < 0.01) while CRP >20 mg/L and serum creatinine >100 μmol/L were not associated with 2-year mortality (p = 0.89 and p = 0.31, respectively). Conclusion On-admission Hb level <100 g/L, but not CRP >20 mg/L and serum creatinine >100 μmol/L, was associated with 2-year mortality. These results can help healthcare providers identify high-risk FNF patients who probably would benefit from optimized perioperative medical management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arkan Sayed-Noor
- Department of Clinical Science and Education, Södersjukhuset, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Bariq Al-Amiry
- Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Alan Alwan
- Department of Surgical and Perioperative Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Björn Knutsson
- Department of Surgical and Perioperative Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Björn Barenius
- Department of Clinical Science and Education, Södersjukhuset, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
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Predicting 30-Day and 180-Day Mortality in Elderly Proximal Hip Fracture Patients: Evaluation of 4 Risk Prediction Scores at a Level I Trauma Center. Diagnostics (Basel) 2021; 11:diagnostics11030497. [PMID: 33799724 PMCID: PMC8002141 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics11030497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2021] [Revised: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
This study evaluated the use of risk prediction models in estimating short- and mid-term mortality following proximal hip fracture in an elderly Austrian population. Data from 1101 patients who sustained a proximal hip fracture were retrospectively analyzed and applied to four models of interest: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), Charlson Comorbidity Index, Portsmouth-POSSUM and the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP®) Risk Score. The performance of these models according to the risk prediction of short- and mid-term mortality was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The median age of participants was 83 years, and 69% were women. Six point one percent of patients were deceased by 30 days and 15.2% by 180 days postoperatively. There was no significant difference between the models; the ACS-NSQIP had the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for within 30-day and 180-day mortality. Age, male gender, and hemoglobin (Hb) levels at admission <12.0 g/dL were identified as significant risk factors associated with a shorter time to death at 30 and 180 days postoperative (p < 0.001). Among the four scores, the ACS-NSQIP score could be best-suited clinically and showed the highest discriminative performance, although it was not specifically designed for the hip fracture population.
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Ojeda-Thies C, Cuarental-García J, Ramos-Pascua LR. Decreased volume of hip fractures observed during COVID-19 lockdown. Eur Geriatr Med 2021; 12:759-766. [PMID: 33481186 PMCID: PMC7820835 DOI: 10.1007/s41999-020-00447-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2020] [Accepted: 12/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The aim was to study the incidence and characteristics of fragility hip fractures admitted during COVID-19 lockdown. MATERIALS AND METHODS We analysed socio-demographic and baseline characteristics of patients suffering fragility hip fractures between March 1st and May 1st 2020, period most affected by COVID-19 confinement measures. Cases (n = 64) were compared with controls (n = 172) from corresponding periods in 2018 and 2019. Poisson Generalised Linear Model regression analysis was performed to compare daily case counts, and LOESS curves compared time series. RESULTS No differences were found regarding age or gender distributions, pre-fracture living, ambulatory, functional or cognitive status. More patients in 2020 had a high-risk ASA score. Fewer cases [Reduction = 26% (95% CI 1-44%)] were admitted in 2020. The reduction seemed to correspond with confinement. CONCLUSIONS Approximately, one quarter less fragility hip fractures were admitted to our hospital during lockdown. Patients' baseline status and socio-demographic characteristics were similar.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cristina Ojeda-Thies
- Department of Traumatology and Orthopaedic Surgery, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Avda Córdoba s/n, 28041, Madrid, Spain.
| | - Javier Cuarental-García
- Department of Traumatology and Orthopaedic Surgery, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Avda Córdoba s/n, 28041, Madrid, Spain
| | - Luis Rafael Ramos-Pascua
- Department of Traumatology and Orthopaedic Surgery, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Avda Córdoba s/n, 28041, Madrid, Spain.,Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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