Why are there so few (or so many) circulating coronaviruses?

High transmission of endemic human coronaviruses before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in adolescents in Cebu, Philippines

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, is a betacoronavirus belonging to the same genus as endemic human coronaviruses (hCoVs) OC43 and HKU1 and is distinct from alpha hCoVs 229E and NL63. In a study of adolescents in the Philippines, we evaluated the seroprevalence to hCoVs, whether pre-pandemic hCoV immunity modulated subsequent risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and if SARS-CoV-2 infection affected the transmission of the hCoVs.

METHODS

From 499 samples collected in 2021 and screened by SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), we randomly selected 59 SARS-CoV-2 negative and 61 positive individuals for further serological evaluation. We measured RBD and spike antibodies to the four hCoVs and SARS-CoV-2 by ELISA in samples from the same participants collected pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and mid-pandemic (2021), before COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

We observed over 72% seropositivity to the four hCoVs pre-pandemic. Binding antibodies increased with age to 229E and OC43, suggesting endemic circulation, while immunity was flat across ages for HKU1 and NL63. During the COVID-19 pandemic, antibody level increased significantly to the RBDs of OC43, NL63, and 229E and spikes of all four hCoVs in both SARS-CoV-2 negative and positive adolescents. Those aged 12-15 years old in 2021 had higher antibodies to RBD and spike of OC43, NL63, and 229E than adolescents the same age in 2019, further demonstrating intense transmission of the hCoVs during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

We observe a limited impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on endemic hCoV transmission. This study provides insight into co-circulation of hCoVs and SARS-CoV-2.

The pathophysiological and immunological background of the monkeypox virus infection: An update

In addition to the COVID-19 waves, the globe is facing global monkeypox (MPX) outbreak. MPX is an uncommon zoonotic infection characterized by symptoms similar to smallpox. It is caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), a double-stranded DNA virus that belongs to the genus Orthopoxvirus (OPXV). MPXV, which causes human disease, has been confined to Africa for many years, with only a few isolated cases in other areas. Outside of Africa, the continuing MPXV outbreak in multiple countries in 2022 is the greatest in recorded history. The current outbreak, with over 10 000 confirmed cases in over 50 countries between May and July 2022, demonstrates that MPXV may travel rapidly among humans and pose a danger to human health worldwide. The rapid spread of such outbreaks in recent times has elevated MPX to the status of a rising zoonotic disease with significant epidemic potential. While the MPXV is not as deadly or contagious as the variola virus that causes smallpox, it poses a threat because it could evolve into a more potent human pathogen. This review assesses the potential threat to the human population and provides a brief overview of what is currently known about this reemerging virus. By analyzing the biological effects of MPXV on human health, its shifting epidemiological footprint, and currently available therapeutic options, this review has presented the most recent insights into the biology of the virus. This study also clarifies the key potential causes that could be to blame for the present MPX outbreak and draw attention to major research questions and promising new avenues for combating the current MPX epidemic.

The past, current and future epidemiological dynamic of SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in late 2019 in China, and rapidly spread throughout the world to reach all continents. As the virus expanded in its novel human host, viral lineages diversified through the accumulation of around two mutations a month on average. Different viral lineages have replaced each other since the start of the pandemic, with the most successful Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of concern (VoCs) sequentially sweeping through the world to reach high global prevalence. Neither Alpha nor Delta was characterized by strong immune escape, with their success coming mainly from their higher transmissibility. Omicron is far more prone to immune evasion and spread primarily due to its increased ability to (re-)infect hosts with prior immunity. As host immunity reaches high levels globally through vaccination and prior infection, the epidemic is expected to transition from a pandemic regime to an endemic one where seasonality and waning host immunization are anticipated to become the primary forces shaping future SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics. In this review, we consider a body of evidence on the origins, host tropism, epidemiology, genomic and immunogenetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 including an assessment of other coronaviruses infecting humans. Considering what is known so far, we conclude by delineating scenarios for the future dynamic of SARS-CoV-2, ranging from the good-circulation of a fifth endemic 'common cold' coronavirus of potentially low virulence, the bad-a situation roughly comparable with seasonal flu, and the ugly-extensive diversification into serotypes with long-term high-level endemicity.

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

Challenges in modeling the emergence of novel pathogens

The emergence of infectious agents with pandemic potential present scientific challenges from detection to data interpretation to understanding determinants of risk and forecasts. Mathematical models could play an essential role in how we prepare for future emergent pathogens. Here, we describe core directions for expansion of the existing tools and knowledge base, including: using mathematical models to identify critical directions and paths for strengthening data collection to detect and respond to outbreaks of novel pathogens; expanding basic theory to identify infectious agents and contexts that present the greatest risks, over both the short and longer term; by strengthening estimation tools that make the most use of the likely range and uncertainties in existing data; and by ensuring modelling applications are carefully communicated and developed within diverse and equitable collaborations for increased public health benefit.